RSMAS MPO Student Seminar 2011
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Transcript of RSMAS MPO Student Seminar 2011
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Chapter 1: Defining the Mid-Summer Drought Chapter 2: Mid-Summer Drought Forcings Chapter 3: Predictability for mid-summer rainfall Chapter 4: The Sequel
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Mr. Joseph Occupation: cabbage farmer Location: Flagaman, Jamaica
Martin Hilton Occupation: tomato farmer Location: Potsdam, Jamaica
Leroy Dixon Occupation: tomato / cassava farmer Location: Potsdam, Jamaica
Earl Bent Occupation: melon farmer Location: Top Hill, Jamaica
Donovan Campbell Occupation: PhD student Location: UWI Mona
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Intra-Americas Sea “Mid-Summer Drought”
The early and late summer is wet, but the middle of my
summer is usually hot and dry. What do you call this?
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This is what we think, but can you tell us what causes our mid-summer
drought?
* Courtesy of Donovan Campbell from The University of The West Indies at Mona
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El Nino composite precipitation time series
Some people tell me that the Pacific can influence our rainfall. Is this true?
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Sea level pressure (dry MSD composite)
Sea level pressure (wet MSD composite)
spring NAO pattern
Well, then does the Atlantic play a role
too?
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North Atlantic Subtropical High
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Allen et al. 2010
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Observed
A) Observed simultaneous and lagged covariance statistics are used to predict the future state of a dynamical system.
B) The state system described by the LIM is constructed based on physical mechanisms that govern the system.
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� �
*Alexander et al., 2008, Journal of Climate
( represents the best “forecast” for 𝑥(𝑡 + 𝜏 given 𝑥(𝑡 )
1.
2.
3.
4.
STATE SYSTEM
Simultaneous and lagged covariance matrix
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5 x 5
matrix
SST SST
SLP SLPd
NAO NAOdt
precip precip
zonal wind zonal wind
( the observed simultaneous and lagged covariance statistics matrix )
( these are the state variables that describe the physical system )
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• Investigate MSD “regionality”
within the IAS with farmer
interviews in the eastern
Caribbean (hopefully this
summer)
• Improve our MSD conceptual
model
• Exploit the LIM method to
forecast mid summer rainfall
anomalies within the IAS
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