Mark Henry

Director, Reliability Services

Performance Indicators

and

Texas RE 2015 Assessment of

Reliability Performance

ROS May 5, 2016

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Objectives

Review performance indicators

Outline observations

• Texas Reliability Entity, Inc. (Texas RE) Assessment of Reliability Performance report

• North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) State of Reliability report

Overview follow-up activities and emerging issues

Discuss data sources

• Transmission Availability Data Systems (TADS)

• Generation Availability Data Systems (GADS)

• Misoperation outage data (PRC-004)

• Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) PI system

• ERCOT Market Information System (MIS) historical data

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2015 Assessment of Reliability Performance

Fourth Annual Report

Covers MRC metrics over the year with

additional observations

Specific to the Texas RE footprint

Complements NERC “State of Reliability

Report”

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2015 Assessment of Reliability Performance

Transmission outage rates increased in 2015 due to increase in lightning-related outages

Generation availability compares well with NERC-wide averages

Frequency control metrics – continued high levels

Primary frequency response – continued high levels

Protection system misoperation rates remain stable. However, misoperations due to incorrect settings remain an issue.

Initial data trending started for emerging reliability issues, i.e., system reactive performance, inertia, short circuit strength, ramping variability, etc.

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2015 At A Glance

Record peak demand: 69,877 MW on August 10, 2015

Record wind generation: 13,883 MW on December 20, 2015

Record wind penetration: 44.7% of total energy on December 20, 2015

Control Performance Standard 1 (CPS1): 174.3 for calendar year 2015 vs. 163.3 for calendar year 2014

Frequency Response: 720.43 MW/0.1 Hz vs. NERC obligation of 471 MW/0.1 Hz

Protection system misoperation rate: 7.2% for 2015 vs. 8.7% for 2014

TADS 345 kV automatic outage rate per 100 miles: 2.99 for 2015 vs. 1.97 for 2014

GADS EFORd: 5.5% for 2015 vs. 5.4 % for 2014

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12

21

18

2

5

3 3

56

43

7

109

5

7

2

14

109

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EventsTotal Events Cat 4 & 5 Cat 3 Cat 2 Cat 1 Cat 0 Generator Trips >450MW

System Events

2015 Events in Brief

● Events

Reported: 101

● Protection

System

Misoperations:

179

● Generation

Forced

Outages: 1,856

● 345 kV

Transmission

Automatic

Outages: 477

Key 2015 System

Events

● 7/3/2015 Lower

Rio Grande

Valley

● 7/29/2015

Multiple

generator loss >

1,500 MW

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2014201320122011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015

7

Frequency Control

● Green dashed lines

are the Epsilon-1 (ε1)

value of 0.030 Hz

used for calculation

of the CPS-1.

● Red dashed lines

show governor dead-

band settings of

0.036 Hz.

● Purple dashed lines

show governor dead-

band settings of

0.017 Hz.

● Shape of frequency

bell curve continues

to narrow due to

number of

generators

implementing

reduced governor

dead-band settings.

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Primary Frequency Response

● 2015 Average Recovery time from a generation loss event was 4.8 minutes

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0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary Frequency Response Per BAL-003 (MW per 0.1 Hz)

761

535

722 726

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Transmission Outage Rate Trends (>200 kV)

2015 Transmission Performance in Brief

● 345 kV circuits: 413

● 345 kV circuit miles: 14,832

● 345 kV circuit Outages: 440

● 345 kV outage duration: 8,617 hrs

● 138 kV circuits: 1,705

● 138 kV circuit miles: 20,217

● 138 kV circuit Sustained Outages: 424

● 138 kV outage duration: 13,273 hrs

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0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ERCOT Outages / circuit ERCOT Outages/100 mi-year

NERC 300-399kV Outages per circuit NERC 300-399kV Outages per 100mi-year

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Voltage Control (345 kV Buses) – 2015

● One-hour average PI data from 20 345 kV buses important for State Estimator

● Boxes represent the 25%/75% percentiles. Leader lines show the min/max voltage during the period

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0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

Bus 1 Bus 2 Bus 3 Bus 4 Bus 5 Bus 6 Bus 7 Bus 8 Bus 9 Bus 10 Bus 11 Bus 12 Bus 13 Bus 14 Bus 15 Bus 16 Bus 17 Bus 18 Bus 19 Bus 20

Voltage Control Charts

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Transmission Limits

• Lines represent the total number of lines which are a constraint during the month (i.e., a post-contingency overload >100%)

• Bars represent the average hours per circuit during the month that the line constraints occurred

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4

345kV Line Constraint Total Hrs 138kV Line Constraint Total Hrs

345kV Lines (# of Ckts w/ Post-Contingency Overload) 138kV Lines (# of Ckts w/ Post-Contingency Overload)# Ckts Hours

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Generation EFORd

● Equivalent Forced Outage Rate Demand (EFORd) measures the probability that a unit will not meet its demand periods for generating requirements because of forced outages or derates

● ERCOT units only, based on GADS submittal data (no wind, or units under 50 MW in 2012)

ROS May 5, 2016

NERC 2009-2013

Fleet Avg EFORd

Fossil 8.27

Coal 7.50

Gas 10.17

Lignite 7.11

Nuclear 4.47

Jet Engine 10.78

Gas Turbine 11.40

CC Block 4.58

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Total Coal, Lignite,Fluidized Bed

GG - Gas Nuclear Gas Turbine/JetEngine (Simple

Cycle Operation)

Combined CycleBlock

CC GT units CC steam units

2012 2013 2014 2015EFORd

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Protection System Misoperations

● Failure to Reclose removed from historical misoperation data

● Lines show percentage of protection system operations that are misoperations

● Percent Misoperation Rate is normalized based on number of system events

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0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

Overall 345kV 138kV% Misoperation Rate

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ERCOT Region Protection System Misoperation

Statistics

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● Overall decrease in number of misoperations from incorrect settings and relay failures in 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Emerging Reliability Issues

NERC Essential Reliability Service Task Force’s Final Measures

Framework Report, December 2015:

● Measures or industry practices for:

Synchronous inertial response at BA and Interconnection level

Initial frequency deviation following largest contingency

Frequency response at the Interconnection level

Real time inertial models

Net demand ramping variability

System reactive capability and overall reactive performance

System short circuit strength

● Further examination of Distibuted Energy Resources reliability

coordination and contribution

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Energy by Fuel Type – Long-Term Trend

● Wind surpassed nuclear in 2015 in total energy

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Fuel Type as % of Total Energy

Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Natural Gas) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Coal) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Nuclear) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Wind)

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System Inertia vs. Load Served by Renewables

● Calculated from one hour average PI data

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0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44%

2015 Avg Inertia vs IRR %

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References

Texas RE 2015 Assessment of Reliability Performance

● http://www.texasre.org/CPDL/2015%20Texas%20RE

%20State%20of%20Reliability%20Report.pdf

NERC Essential Reliability Services Task Force Final

Measures Framework Report

● http://www.nerc.com/comm/Other/essntlrlbltysrvcst

skfrcDL/ERSTF%20Framework%20Report%20-

%20Final.pdf

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Questions?

ROS May 5, 2016