Robert Bosch of Diesel Systems 07-25-13 TN-71711.pdf

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Energy - Docket Optical System

From: Tom Fulks [[email protected]]Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2013 1:21 PMTo: Energy - Docket Optical SystemCc: Olson, Tim@EnergySubject: Docket No. 13-IEP-1L -- Transportation Energy ScenariosAttachments: Bosch - 20130617_CP_CaliforniaEnergy Commission_dd2015.pdf

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To the California Energy Commission,

Attached please find a presentation prepared by Robert Bosch Diesel Systems that was delivered to your IEPR staff on June 19, 2013, at your offices in Sacramento.

We were asked to submit this document to the CEC docket in preparation for the July 31, 2013, Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Scenarios, and are happy to do so now.

The presentation may be useful to the CEC in that it covers the known new model rollout scenarios of light-duty diesel vehicles in the U.S. market through 2015. Given that light-duty diesel vehicles have a fuel economy performance of up to 35 percent higher than comparable gasoline vehicles, this diesel market penetration will directly affect the fuel use modeling being conducted now by your staff. If bio-based diesel fuels are factored in, then the modeling will be affected that much more.

This presentation was prepared by Andreas Sambel, Director of Marketing & Business Excellence, Bosch Diesel Systems North America. If you have any questions of Mr. Sambel about this presentation, please contact me and I will put you in touch.

Very warm regards,

Tom Fulks

Mightycomm

916.508.3837

DOCKETEDCalifornia Energy Commission

JUL 25 2013

TN 71711

13-IEP-1L

California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013

Andreas SambelDirector Marketing &

DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.

Diesel Systems

Business Excellence Diesel Systems North America

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Powertrain diversification for Today and the FutureCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013

Powertrain diversification for Today and the Future gasoline

EV /range extender

EV (b tt /dieselgasoline

gasoline

diesel

Bi- fuel

EV / fuel cell

EV / battery EV (battery /fuel cell)

alternative fuelsdiesel alternativefuels

hybridhybrid

EV /range extender

1997 2010 2015

range extender

?Variety of Technical solution needed to address individual mobility needs

Diesel Systems

Long term convergence towards electrification

DS/ENS-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.2


≤2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015≤

Diesel Systems

≤2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015≤

DS/MKL-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.3


U.S. Current Clean Diesel Models Available clean diesel models by 2012 = 20U.S. Current Clean Diesel Models

≤2009 2010 2011 2012

Audi A3 (2.0L)

MB E 350 (3 0L)

MB S 350 (3.0L)

2012 = 20

MB E 350 (3.0L)

VW Golf (2.0L)

VW Jetta (2.0L)

VW Jetta Sportwagen (2.0L)

Audi Q7 (3.0L)

VW Passat (2.0L)

VW Beetle (2.0L)

Audi Q7 (3.0L)

BMW X5 (3.0L)

MB GL 350 (3.0L)

MB ML 350 (3.0L)

VW Touareg (3.0L)

Ch l t Sil d HD (6 6L)

Porsche Cayenne (3.0L)

Chevrolet Silverado HD (6.6L)Ford F Series Superduty (6.7L)

GMC Sierra HD (6.6L)

MB Sprinter (3.0L)

Ram HD (6.7L)

GM Vans (6.6L)

Notes• Discontinued models (i.e. BMW 335d/MB R 350) removed.• Launch time frame determined by first diesel launch not current diesel engine.• There were no new clean diesel models launched in 2010


Diesel Systems

• There were no new clean diesel models launched in 2010.

4


U.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Launch CalendarU.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Launch Calendar2013 2014 2015 2016≤

Audi A6 (3.0L)

Audi A7 (3.0L)

Audi A8 (3 0L)Audi A8 (3.0L)

Chevrolet Cruze (2.0L)

BMW 3 Series (2.0L)

BMW 5 Series (3.0L)

BMW 3 Series Wagon (2.0L)

Chevrolet Cruze (2.0L)

Mazda 6 (2.2L)

MB E250 (2.2L)

VW Beetle Conv. (2.0L)

Audi Q5 (3.0L)

Jeep Grand Cherokee (3.0L)

MB GLK 250 (2.2L)

MB ML 250 (2.2L)

Ford Transit (3.2L)

Ram 1500 (3.0L)

Ram ProMaster (3.0L)

Currently Available Clean Diesel Models= 24

New Vehicle Launches by 2018= 38


Diesel Systems

Announced by OEM = Not Announced by OEMAvailable at Dealer

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North American Light Vehicle ProductionCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013

17 5 17.9 18.320

Diesel Gasoline Flex-Fuel Hybrid Electric Others Total NAM

Diesel share in %

North American Light Vehicle Production

15.0 15.4

17.5

15

[M]

10

Volu

mes

0

5

10 %

2012 2013 2016 2018 2020

l l d h k f b f

CAGRDiesel: 8%, Gas: 2%, Market: 3%

Diesel Systems

Clean Diesel expected to reach a market penetration of 10% by 2018 timeframe

DS/MKL-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.6


NAFTA Clean Diesel RegistrationsNAFTA Clean Diesel Registrations

459,066500,000

US Canada

63,042

67,870

326,001

403,288

350,000

400,000

450,000

391 196

54,086

200,000

250,000

300,000

271,915

340,246

391,196

100,000

150,000

,

Note: NAFTA total (class 1 3) registrations excludes Mexico due to unavailability of data

0

50,000

2010 2011 2012


Diesel Systems

Note: NAFTA total (class 1-3) registrations excludes Mexico due to unavailability of data.* 2013 CYTD includes Jan through Mar 2013 registrations.

Source: Polk

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US: Diesel vs. Gasoline Price Delta IndexCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013

25%$5 00

US: Diesel vs. Gasoline Price Delta IndexU.S. National Averages: Week of 6/03/2013

Diesel Price $3.85 Gas Price $3.72 Price ∆ ($) $0.13 Price ∆ (%) 3.4%

15%

20%

25%

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

5%

10%

15%

$1 50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

-5%

0%

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

Gasoline Diesel % Difference Diesel Trendline % Difference Trendline

DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.8Diesel Systems

Sources: U.S. EIA

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Consumer Confidence Index

40%

Consumers Considering Diesel

Consumer Confidence Index

28%30%

32% 32% 33% 34% 34%

30%

13%14%

17%20%

23%

20%

0%

10%

0%


Diesel Systems

Source: CNW ResearchNote: Share of 10,000 new vehicle intenders that would consider purchasing a diesel

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US Clean Diesel Take Rates: PCUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: PC

100%100

Audi A3 Audi A8 Mercedes E-Class MercedesS-Class VW BeetleVW Golf VW Jetta VW Jetta Sportwagen VW Passat Average Take Rate

29%

70%

80%

90%

70

80

90

gist

ratio

n [K

pcs]

Monthly C

le

32%

75

9240%

50%

60%

40

50

60

n D

iese

l PC

Reg

an Diesel Take

27%

35%

4353

75

10%

20%

30%

10

20

30

Ann

ual C

lean

Rates

0%

10%

0

10


Diesel Systems

Source: PolkNote: Annual average diesel take rate

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US Clean Diesel Take Rates: SUVUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: SUV

60%35

Audi Q7 BMW X5 MB GL-Class MB M-Class Porsche Cayenne VW Touareg Average

26%

40%

50%

25

30

27%

istra

tion

[Kpc

s]M

onthly Cle

25

3220%

30%

15

20

20%

25%

Die

sel P

C R

egi ean D

iesel Take

14

19

25

0%

10%

5

10

Ann

ual C

lean

e Rates

-10%0


Diesel Systems


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US Clean Diesel Take Rates: PUUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: PU

100%300

Chevy Silverado 2500 Chevy Silverado 3500 Ford F-250GMC Sierra 2500 GMC Sierra 3500 Ram 2500Ram 3500 Average

70%

80%

90%

200

250

60%

62%

62%

gist

ratio

n [K

pcs]

Monthly

217247 40%

50%

60%

15060%

60%

n D

iese

l PC

Reg

Clean D

iesel Ta

137

184217

10%

20%

30%

50

100

Ann

ual C

lean

ake Rates

0%

10%

0


Diesel Systems


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Robert Bosch of Diesel Systems 07-25-13 TN-71711.pdf

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