Robbins Fom8 Inppt04 GE Version
-
Upload
mohamad-ridhuan -
Category
Documents
-
view
103 -
download
2
Transcript of Robbins Fom8 Inppt04 GE Version
4Chapter
Foundations of Decision Making
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-1
Learning Objectives
• Describe the decision making process.• Explain the three approaches managers can
use to make decisions.• Describe the types of decisions and decision-
making conditions managers face.• Discuss group decision making.• Discuss contemporary issues in managerial
decision making.
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-2
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-3
How Do Managers Make Decisions?
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-4
What Defines a Decision Problem?
Problem – A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs.
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-5
Factors in the Decision-Making Process
Relevant decision criteria:• Price• Model (two-or four-door)• Size • Manufacturer • Optional equipment• Fuel economy, or• Repair records.
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 1-6
Weighing Criteria and Analyzing AlternativesTo weigh criteria:
1. Give the most important criterion a weight of 10.
2. Compare remaining criteria against that standard to indicate their relative degrees of importance.
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-7
Weighing Criteria and Analyzing Alternatives (cont.)
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-8
Weighing Criteria and Analyzing Alternatives (cont.)
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-9
Determining the Best Choice
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-10
Implementing Decisions
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-11
The Last Step in the Decision Process
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-12
Common Errors
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-13
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-14
Three Approaches
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-15
The Rational Model
• Rational decision making – Choices that are consistent and maximize value within specified constraints
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-16
IT can enhance an org’s decision-making capabilities.
Bounded Rationality
• Bounded rationality – Decisions that are rational within the limits of a manager’s ability to process information
• Satisfice – Accepting solutions that are “good enough”
• Escalation of commitment – An increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been a poor one
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-17
Intuition in Decision Making
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-18
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-19
Types of Problems
• Structured problem – A straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problem
• Unstructured problem – A problem that is new or unusual for which information is ambiguous or incomplete
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-20
Types of Decisions: Programmed
Programmed decisions – Repetitive decisions that can be handled using a routine approach
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-21
Types of Decisions: Nonprogrammed
Nonprogrammed decisions – Unique and nonrecurring decisions; require a custom-made solution
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-22
Problems, Decision Types, and Organizational Levels
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-23
Decision-Making Conditions
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-24
• Risk – A situation where a decision maker estimates the likelihood of certain outcomes
• Certainty – A situation where a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known
• Uncertainty – A situation where a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-25
How Do Groups Make Decisions?
Important decisions are often made by groups who will be most affected by those decisions:• Committees• Task forces• Review panels• Work teams
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-26
Group Decision Making: Benefits
• Provides more information
• Generates more alternatives
• Increases acceptance of a solution
• Increases legitimacy of the decision
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-27
Group Decision Making: Drawbacks
• Time-consuming• Infrequent and often inefficient interaction• Minority domination• Groupthink• Ambiguous responsibility
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-28
When Are Groups Most Effective?
Individual• Faster decision making• More efficient use of
work hours
Group• More accurate decisions• More heterogeneous
representation• More time-consuming• More creative• More effective in
accepting final solution
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-29
Improving Group Decision Making
Three ways of making group decisions more creative:• Brainstorming• Nominal group technique• Electronic meetings
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-30
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-31
Contemporary Issues
• National culture – Influences the way in which decisions are made and the degree of risk a decision maker will take
• Creativity – The ability to produce novel and useful ideas
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-32
Creativity in Decision Making
Creativity allows the decision maker to:• Appraise and understand a problem more fully• “See” problems others can’t see • Identify all viable alternatives
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-33
Quantitative Module
Quantitative Decision-Making Aids
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-34
Payoff Matrices
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-35
Payoff Matrices: Regret Matrix
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-36
Decision Trees
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-37
Break-Even Analysis
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-38
Ratio Analysis
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-39
Linear Programming
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-40
Linear Programming (cont.)
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-41
Queuing Theory
n = 3 customers arrival rate = 2 per minuteservice rate = 4 minutes per customer
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-42
Economic Order Quantity Model
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-43
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education 4-44