Rob Sell Forecast 2010

8/14/2019 Rob Sell Forecast 2010

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Infill/Residential Development

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Market trends and vital signs

Fourth annual Tour de Fort Worth

Profile in Success 2009

2009 predictions scorecard

Conclusions and predictions for 2010 2


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2 0 0 9 National Home prices in decline, but not as fast

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S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price IndexRank City 2009 Change (%)1. Denver -0.1%

2. Dallas -0.6%3. San Diego -2.4%4. San Francisco -2.6%5. Boston, Washington -2.8%6. Cleveland -3.5%

7. Los Angeles -6.3%8. Charlotte -7.0%9. New York -7.7%10. Atlanta -8.1%11. Minneapolis -8.4%12. Portland -9.9%

13. Chicago -10.1%14. Seattle -12.4%15. Miami -14.0%16. Detroit -15.1%17. Tampa -15.2%18. Phoenix -18.1%

19. Las Vegas -26.6% 4


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National Home Sales

After bottoming in Jan 09 at 329K,new home sales recover; slight

moderation in Sept. as tax creditstimulus wanes

Existing Home Sales New Home Sales

Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, NAHB

Existing homesales climb to4.890 million

annual rate in Sep

402,000


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Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Annual Start Rates

Single-Family Detached Only

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (in 000s) Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

National New Housing Starts

Peak:1.823mm

501K units

% Decline (peak to trough)National -81%

DFW - 74%

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Foreclosures

Tarrant foreclosure raterises to .44%

Texas ranks 28 th innation at .32%

U.S. rate is .73% (from.13% in 2005)


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DFW Unemployment Rate

DFW Unemployment Trend

Not Seasonally AdjustedSource: TWC - LAUS

Unemployment Rates Sep 09

DFW: 8.3% Texas: 8.3%US: 9.5%

Market Drivers

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Job Growth / Unemployment

Nov. 08 Nov. 09

Total Civilian Workforce: 1,045,100 1,081,500

Total Employed: 988,800 995,400

Unemployment rate: 5.4% 8%

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Fort Worth / Arlington MSA(Metropolitan Statistical Area)


10/5010Mortgage Rates

Source: Freddie Mac October 29, 200930YR : 5.03%15YR : 4.46%

1YR ARM : 4.57%

30-Yr Fixed Rate Outlook, Mortgage Bankers AssociationConforming Rates: 10/13/09 Forecast

Interest Rates

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Consumer is saving again

Equity market has rebounded

DowJones Sources: NAHB, Conference Board, Dow Jone

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Positive Economic Trends

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SavingsRate


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Consumer ConfidenceThe Sindlinger Survey of Household Money Supply

1. How is your household income today vs. 6 monthsago?

2. Do you expect your household income to be thesame or greater in six months?3. In your place of employment, do you expect there to

be the same number or more jobs in six months?

4. Do you expect your local business conditions in thenext six months to be the same or better?

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DFW Texas U.S.

Consumer Confidence

9/11/01

Texas: 49.2

DFW: 53.3

US : 48.3

DFW, U.S. and Texas show improvement in 3Q09

1985=100Source: Sindlinger 13


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FW New Home Vital Signs

(1) 2.5 mos. is considered equilibrium(2) 24 mos. is considered equilibrium

FW 06 FW 07 FW 08 FW 09

$ Vol. Starts (Billions) $2.93 $1.96 $1.40 $0.93

Median Home Price $172K $179K $187K $185K

Annual Starts 17,007 10,952 7,502 5,062FV Home Inventory 4,648 3,194 2,422 1,637

Months Supply (1) 3.4 2.7 3.1 2.9

Vacant Lots 34,053 35,745 33,837 31,081

Months Supply (2) 24 39.2 54.1 73.7

Lots Under Development 13,212 6,728 2,952 2,612

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MLS Average Days on Market(Fort Worth)

Price Range 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$0 - $250,000 68 74 73 81 78 75

$250,000 - $500,000 85 94 78 80 95 102

$500,000 - $750,000 117 112 144 99 122 116

$750,000 - $1 million 110 179 146 110 133 118

Over $1 million 168 127 179 152 197 199

Source: NTREIS


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MLS Sales Price % of List Price(Fort Worth)

Price Range 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$0 - $250,000 98% 98% 97% 97% 97% 91%

$250,000 - $500,000 95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 91%

$500,000 - $750,000 96% 95% 97% 96% 96% 97%

$750,000 - $1 million 92% 94% 94% 95% 95% 97%

Over $1 million 90% 91% 94% 90% 95% 88%

Source:NTREIS


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FW Resale Market in 2009

Median home price of $113,200 drops 3.2% MLS home sales drop 12.9%

Source: Texas A&M Real EstateCenter 17


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FW MLS Home Sales Over $1 Million

2003 6 Sales2004 13 Sales2005 12 Sales2006 16 Sales2007 26 Sales2008 18 Sales

2009 17 Sales

Source: MLS18


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Signs of life

Interest rates at historic lows but inching upward

Equity market rebound restores confidence

Consumer confidence trending upward DFW well ahead of

national trend

Affordability is way up

Natural gas rebounds

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Challenges to Recovery Foreclosures add low priced inventory to the market,

particularly outside the loop

Tightened lending parameters and regulation willcontinue to restrain demand, particularly in the condo

market

Job losses as unemployment escalates

Frugality is now fashionable

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Downtown Projects

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Villa De Leon

Tom Struhs

23 luxury condos

5 units sold

$412/sf avg.

$630s to $1.5 million

Construction completed

October 09 22


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Pecan PlaceTom Struhs

28 townhomes

15 sold

$185 to $210/sf

$320s to $500s

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PalisadesInCap

40 townhomes

31 sold

$140s per SF

$290s to $500s

4 sales in December09

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Le Bijou

OmniAmerican Bank

14 townhomes

6 sold

$1.825 million

$615k to $825k

$197 to 205/SF

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1301 ThrockmortonOmni Corporation

84 units $500/sf avg. $399K to $2.6 million 15 sold, 5 reservations

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The Neil P

M C Smith Investments

57 condos

32 sold (+9)

$170-$250/sf

$210s to $400,000

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Westview

Centex Homes

50 condos finished

41 sold

820 sf to 1400 sf

$190s to $230s

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The Westside

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Townhouses at So7

Hughes Development, L.P. 43 townhouses

completed in the mid$400s

34 sold, 9 available $165 - $225/sf

$410s to $660s

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ArtHouse at So7

Hughes Development, L.P. 54 condominiums complete: 28 up from 13 sold 11 Gallery Homes complete: 9 up from 8 sold $190 - $250/sf

$200s to $420s

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The StaytonHughes Development, L.P.

Continuous care retirement community(Go go, slow go, no go)

200 units, 150 units presold

completion in mid 2011

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Parkside

71 luxury apartments for lease $1.60 per foot rents Originally intended condos developer calls audible as market

conditions change

Hughes Development, L.P.

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Montgomery Plaza

Marquis Group

240 luxury residences

178 contracts

$250-$300+/sf

$210s to $1.45million

Construction

completed May 09 35


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JaGee Holdings 34 condominiums No sales $350s/sf

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Corner Store LoftsJaGee Holdings

5 loft units over corner market7-eleven

$230/sf No sales, One leased

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HILLTOPVillage Homes, L.P.

10 townhouses 8 sold $175 to $190/sf $450s - $500s

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Village Homes, L.P.

7 homes in the $380s to $420s

$160 to $180/sf

2 sold

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Lower Monticello


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Chamberlain Heights

HGCDevelopment

23 townhouses

16 sold 6 units leased Approx. $185/sf

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Village Homes, L.P.

18 home sites from$270s to $450s

9 home sites remaining

$900s to $1.75 million

7 homes sold andcompleted or underway

Idlewild

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Luxury Apartment Surge

West 7 th 350 units 65% leased So 7 Parkside 71 units now leasing Lincoln @ Trinity Bluff 70 units 30% leased

Lincoln Park @Trinity Bluff 299 units 50% leased Colonial Park

and Gallery 1701 425 units 88% leased

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Southwest Fort Worth

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Village Homes, L.P.

4 homes sold; 1 spec available 11 home sites available 18 homes from $550s to $1.5 million

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Park Hill Place


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Trinity Works Phase 1 64 large lots (avg.

acre) 29 lots sold $250,000 to

$1.75 million 9 completed houses 6 under construction

RiverhillsEdwards Ranch

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Montserrat 2009 Lot Sales: 4 from $200k to $500k 2009 Home Sales: 9 homes from $499k to $3.1 million

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Profile in Success: 2 0 0 9

Antares HomesRon Formby, President

Closed 193 houses in 2009 best year ever!

First time buyer market in North FW, Crowley, Burleson

Value and flexibility

Advancing where Big Natl builders have retreated


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09 Predictions Report Card

1. A great year for buyers eager sellers and low interest rates.A strong buyers market will remain through the end of 2009 .

Yes2. Weakening job market and foreclosures will put increased

downward pressure on prices. Suburban markets are mostvulnerable.

Yes3. Inner-city neighborhoods will hold their own.

Yes4. Urban projects downtown and near westside will outperform

2008.No

5. Low gas prices will dampen the high-end ($1 million plus)market, but it will remain stable.

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2010 Predictions

Fort Worth home sales will increase moderately, exceeding2009 by 15%

We will continue to see a strong buyers market through theend of 2010 as excess urban inventory and tighter lendingrestrictions absorb / curb demand

FW home prices will see moderate decline (less than 5%aggregate)

Conforming mortgage rates will rise 2% by October 1, bringingmuch needed urgency to the market

Buoyed by improved natural gas prices, $1million+ home sales

will increase by 25% over 2009

Special thanks to:


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Special thanks to: Martha Williams Williams Trew Marshall Boyd Williams Trew Warren Beam Balanced Systems Tom Struhs Struhs Development Ted Wilson Residential Strategies Cassie Gibson Residential Strategies Cue Lipscomb BMC Mortgage Phillip Poole Townsite Development Ken Schaumburg Schaumburg Architects Richard Garvey JaGee Holdings, LLP Jim Harris James R Harris Company Justin Welborn James R. Harris Company John Giordano HGC Development Paul Paine Fort Worth South Isaac Manning Trinity Works Tyler Arbogast Trinity Works Mary Margaret Davis Texas and Pacific Lofts Vicki Schoch Williams Trew Jason Centex Homes Mike Reilly Reilly Brothers Property Company Michael Dike Village Homes Sydney Eckersley Village Homes Seth Fowler Village Homes Janet Bishop Village Homes Jorg Mast Hughes Development Reece Pettigrew JaGee Holdings, LLP Ron Formby Antares Homes

Rob Sell Forecast 2010

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