Roadmap for a Green Transition of Australia's Built Environment · 2016-12-02 · recovery (ASR) P...
Transcript of Roadmap for a Green Transition of Australia's Built Environment · 2016-12-02 · recovery (ASR) P...
Roadmap for a Green Transition of Australia’s Built Environment
Dr Peter W NewtonChief Scientist, CSIRO Manufacturing & Infrastructure TechnologiesDirector, Sustainable Built Assets Program, CRC Construction Innovation
e6417 Keynote PresentationSustainable Buildings StreamEnvisioning a Sustainable Built Environment SessionEnviro 06 Convention, Melbourne, 11 May 2006
Why should our cities be #1 priority for the Australian government?
“we will neglect our cities to our peril, for in neglecting them we neglect the nation” J.F. Kennedy, 30 January 1962 http://home.att.net/~jrhsc/jfk.html Reorganisation Plan 1 of 1962 to establish a new cabinet-level Department of Urban Affairs & Housing
Australia’s built environment represents 40% of the nation’s total asset base ($3 500 billion in 2001); natural capital represents 33%
Built environments are where all Australians live, where 95% work and where over 90% of the nation’s GDP is generated
Their design, planning, construction & operation are fundamental to:
the productivity & competitiveness of the economythe well-being of all citizensthe ecological sustainability of the continent
Australia’s built environment faces major sustainability challenges in the 21st century
Glass Half Empty:Key Vulnerabilities and
Challenges
Roadmap for Transitioning Australia’s Cities to a More Sustainable Future
OriginFromNow
Destination To
Future (2030 – 2050+)
Glass Half Full:Opportunities for Key
Sustainability Transitions
Looming vulnerabilities:
Increasing per capita and total resource consumptionFossil fuel dependence, GHG build-up, global warming & climate change and their negative impacts on citiesRunning short of oil (transport & mobility impacts)Sustainable yield of water
Increasing waste generation and disposalResource depleting and polluting building materials manufacture & construction + operating processes; lack of cradle-to-cradle perspective
Patchiness of environmental quality within cities (eg contamination of some rivers, estuaries, groundwater, soil; biodiversity and green space loss; noise, urban air quality (especially small particles and smog episodes)
Environmental Sustainability Challenges for Australian Built Environments:
Key Challenge: Sustainable Energy System
ResidentialCommercial
IndustrialTransport
Energy CO2
12.26.5
43.338.0
100%3160 PJ
17.512.045.025.5
100%295 MT
End Use
Energy - Economic Growth Nexus Energy - Greenhouse NexusStrong reliance on low priced fossil fuel sources of energy (<5% renewables)Energy consumption increasing by 2.2% pa to 2020; in excess of rate of population growth (ABARE, 2005)
Energy Consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP 1970-71 to 2001-02 and projected to 2019-20
Source: Akmal, M., Thorpe, S., Dickson, A., Burg, G. and Klijn, N. 2004, Australian Energy: National and State Projections to 2019-20, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, eReport 04.11. p.2.
Energy consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP
Key Challenge: Reducing GHG Emissions
By 2003, Australia’s net GHG emissions were 550 Mt CO2 – equivalent
Challenge: radically improving end use energy efficiency
ManufacturingBuildingsTransport
Challenge: improving efficiency of electricity generation + radically reducing reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels for electricity generation (stationary energy)
Challenge: switch to renewables (current federal target modest compared to OECD)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by End Use Activity (1999)
Source: George Wilkenfeld & Assoc (22003); www.greenhouse.gov.au
Source: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2003) AGO (2005);www.greenhouse.gov.au
Key Challenge: Climate Change and Settlement Vulnerability
Temperature
• Droughts, lower water yields for catchments;
• Cities running out of water
• Increase in urban heat island effect
• Flooding
• Increase in risk of loss of life and property by fire in peri-urban areas
Rainfall Variability
Temperatures across Melbourne on a still and clear night (Source: BOM 2006)
Lake Eildon, May 2003 (9% capacity; 41m below full level; source: Bumbers, 2006)
Climate Change and Settlement Vulnerability
Sea level• Increase in erosion
and loss of shoreline• Higher risk of storm
surge damageNoosa Main BeachEroded rock wall 1972-73 (Source: P. Couglin, Beach Protection Authority Queensland)
Noosa Beach early 1960’sStill in its natural form
Cyclones ?• Increase in number
and/or intensity of cyclones ?
Source - Cyclone Damage in Innisfail North Queensland, The Courier Mail News, March 2006
The forecast population growth in Australia’s cities to 2030 cannot be supported without:
New and alternative sources of water (approx 800gl/yr)Further water conservation (approx 325gl/yr)
Key Challenge: Urban Water Supply Capacity versus Demand
Source: WSAA Position Paper 1 2005
Key Challenge: Australia’s Oil Production and Consumption, 1965 – 2030
– a Nation Running Out of Oil
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 11 21 31 41 51 611965 202520051985
1.0
0.0
0.2
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0.8
Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE
Million barrels/day
Actual Forecast
Consumption
Production
P50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% C
hang
e
20%
34%
47%
58%
Population Car Trips (All) No. Cars Car Use (VKT)
VKT Explosion
-1.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.00
Sydney
Melbou
rneBris
bane
Adelai
dePert
hCanb
erra
Estim
ated
Cos
t $ b
illio
n
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Estim
ated
rat
e $
per
pcu-
km 1995 Congestioncost 2015 Congestioncost 1995 Cost rate
2015 Cost rate
COSTLY CONGESTION
Personal mobility (car use) is increasing at a faster rate than other transport indicators would suggest
Key Challenge: Car Dependence & Urban Transport
Annual ave. rates of growth (1991-2001)
And EmissionsA $30 Billion/year cost to the economy
Ozone
02468
1012
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Days Fine Particles
05
10152025
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Days
Without more robust action, the number of days of fair to poor air quality will worsen
Predictions for Melbourne courtesy of EPA Victoria
Key Challenge: Urban Air Pollution
emissions
pollution
exposure
Key Challenge: Air Quality and Human Health
Key Challenge: Waste Generation and Disposal
Across most waste (potential resource) stream categories there remains a linear attitude of: consume – use – dispose;bypassing key steps of the waste minimisation hierarchy: waste avoidance, re-use, re-cycling, re-processing, recovery)Total volume of solid waste disposed to landfill across Australia remains high at approx 1 tonne per person per year and has increased for some states (Vic, WA). 1997 – 2003.
Key Challenge: To Enhance the Performance of Australia’s Cities
Humanwell being
Resource inputs
Urban systems and processes
Urban environ-mental quality Resource
inputs
(Present settlements) (Future settlements)
Desired change
• Reduced resource use• Improved urban systems
& processes
• Reduced waste & emissions
• Improved urban environmental quality• Greater liveability & well-being
From To
Humanwell being
Urban environ-mental quality
Waste and emissions
Urban systems and processes
Waste and emissions
Six Key Transitions Needed to Create More Sustainable Urban Landscapes
Water & Wastewater Integrated urban water systems, water sensitive urban design
Energy Renewable energy, solar cities, distributed energy systems, hydrogen economy
Solid Waste Generation, Resource Depletion
“Waste as resource” Cradle – to – cradle manufacturing and construction; product stewardship; eco- industrial clusters
Transport & Landuse
Population & Consumption
Integrated landuse-transport planning and design: co-ordinated planning for improved public transport, higher densities, multi-nodal development [intentionally re-shaping cities] + key changes in transport supply and demand
Less materialistic & wasteful consumer society; reduced ecological footprint
Buildings & Urban Form Eco-efficient buildings and urban systems
Invent RoadTest
Networkfor adoption established
BuildCritical mass
FullyAdopted
PROPENSITY TO ANNOY
EVERYBODYPROPENSITY TO WANT TO CATCH
UP
Extent of Diffusion orOf Take-upInnovation
Ren
ewab
le h
ydro
gen
econ
omy
Inte
grat
ed u
rban
wat
er s
yste
ms
Eco
-indu
stria
l clu
ster
s
Dis
tribu
ted
ener
gy
Wat
er s
ensi
tive
urba
n de
sign
Ene
rgy
effic
ient
des
ign
(hou
sing
)
Process of Transitioning to New Ideas
High
Low
Virtu
al p
roto
type
s of
bui
ldin
gs
Key Transition: Virtual Building and Eco-Efficiency Assessment
Direct from CADto Analysis
Example: Comparing Eco Efficiency of Alternative Facades via LCA Design
Pre-Cast Concrete Panel Brick Masonry Glass Curtain
Wall
Low Glass
High BrickMid Concrete
Key Transition: Closing the Loop –Integrated Urban Water System
Receiving water
WWTP
Stormwater runoff
Dams and reservoirs
House
Wastewater
Factory
Waste Water Treatment Plant
CityCBD
Receiving water
WWTP
Wastewater
Dams and reservoirs
Environmental flowsReuse
Stormwater utilisation
From: Linear Urban Water System(divert use dispose)
To: Integrated Urban Water System(diverted water + stormwater + waste water)
The Urban Water Balance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Gig
alitr
es p
er y
ear
Sydney Melbourne
Water Use Wastewater Stormwater
Stormwater pond, wetland, retention pond
Infiltration trench
Porous pavement
Grass swale
Aquifer storage andrecovery (ASR)
PP
Decentralized wastewater treatment plant
Rainwater tankH2O
Bottled water supply
On-site non-standardfire sprinkler system
Incentives (non-price)
Car washing on pervious surfaces
Xeroscape
AAA rated taps
AAA rated shower
Front-loading clothes washing machine
Eco-efficient toilet
Key Transition:Urban Water Systems of the Future
Decentralised systems and many different
technologies
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Year
GW
h
Supply from Existing Plant
Demand (ESAA)
A $30b+ opportunity for new technology implementation
Many existing plants still operating in 2030
In 2005/6, the Australian electricity supply and demand curves cross -an opportunity that we cannot let slip.
The Emerging Electricity Demand – Supply Gap: Opportunity for Energy Transition
Potential Energy Transitions
Nuclear Energy: Stationary OK for GHG, but issues of disposal of spentfuel, safety and nuclear proliferation. For transport, requires energy carrier and storage media
Renewable Energy: Load levelling requires storage media.Transport requires energy carrier
Bio – Fuels: Crops, forest residue etc are energy intensive plus limited fuel stock and land relative to demand.
Fossil Fuels with Co2 Sequestration: Short term solution – not a sustainable energy path. For transport, an energycarrier and storage media is required.
For Transport Sector, the direct use of electricity as an alternative to liquid fuels in motor vehicle is not feasible.
Base load coal fired power station η~33.1%
Transmission losses ~ 8%
Effective energy utilisation ~28.5%
Distribution losses ~6%
Existing Centralised Industry
NewDistributed Industry
Key Transition: Shift from Centralised to Distributed Energy
Distributed Energy Scenarios:
CBD emergency generator sets used to solve peak supply isses (eg 400 MW available in Sydney and Melbourne CBDs – equivalent to Basslinkcapacity ($500M cost; www.forseechange.com/newgengen.htm) Challenges = aggregation, market connectivity, emissions
Most homes and businesses extremely energy efficient PLUS incorporate DG so largely self-sufficient trade energy into retail market, better matching supply with demand energy flows in both directions in comparable volume through a national grid
Present
Future
Key Transition: Hydrogen Economy
Hydrogen is an excellent energy carrier and storage media. Its combustion at highly distributed end use sites (eg vehicles, dwellings, buildings, industrial plant etc) generates no pollution on GHG.
Hydrogen offers a sustainable energy future especially if it is generated using renewable energy sources.
Hydrogen offers a link with existing fossil-fuel-based urban infrastructures and technologies plus future clean energy generation
Key Transition: Eco-Industrial Clusters
Single Enterprise SolutionsCradle-to-cradle manufacture; product stewardshipGreen procurement
Multiple Enterprise SolutionsEco-industrial clustersMapping waste streamsCharacterising waste flowsWaste – to resource conversion technologiesNew industriesPlanning for eco-industrial parks
Company
EIP = eco-industrial park
EIN = eco-industrial network
IP = conventional industrial park
+ by-product exchanges
Key Transition: Urban Transport
1. Transport Supply:
2. Transport Demand:
3. Transport and Landuse:
Transport supply – side change via introduction of hybrid/hydrogen vehicles positive impact on fossil fuel use, air pollution, not congestion
Transport demand – side change via ITS, road/congestion pricing, telecommuting etc reduce road congestion
Integrated landuse-transport planning and design: co-ordinated planning for improved public transport, higher densities, multi-nodal development [intentionally re-shaping cities]
…the design of our citiesis important for air quality and energy use, and green-house gas emissions
CB
D
Corridor City
Ultra CityEdge CityBusiness-As-Usual(dispersed city)
Compact City
Out
erM
iddl
eIn
ner
Fringe City
ALTERNATIVE URBAN FORMS
BASE1990
CORR2011
COMP2011
EDGE2011
FRINGE2011
BAU2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
EXPO
SUR
EEX
POSU
RE
(ppm
(ppm
-- peo
ple
peop
le-- h
ours
x 1
000)
hour
s x
1000
)
Melbourne - smog exposure‘Low Density Suburbanisation’ the worst
air quality outcome
Modelling Environmental Performance of Alternative Urban Forms
Effect of urban form on fuel use: projections for different city forms in 2011
Key Transition: Towards More Sustainable Urban Forms
Compact City form delivers 40% reduction in transport energy use
(Low density suburbanisation)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Hou
seho
ld D
ebt (
% h
ouse
hold
dis
posa
ble
inco
me)
Pe
ople
con
cern
ed a
bout
the
envi
ronm
ent (
%)
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
GD
P pe
r cap
ita ($
/000
)
The Ultimate Transition: Changing Human BehaviourReversing the Cross-over Between Materialism and Environmental Concern
Source: P W Newton, Measuring Urban Performance (2005)
Thank You
CMITName Dr Peter W NewtonTitle Chief ScientistPhone +61 03 9252 6126Email [email protected] www.csiro.au/group
Contact CSIROPhone 1300 363 400
+61 3 9545 2176Email [email protected] www.csiro.au