Rizwana Siddiqui Road Transport

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Quantifying the Impacts of Development of

Transport Sector in Pakistan

Rizwana Siddiqui

Summary

The paper quantifies the impact of tax-financed public investment in infrastructure and services by

mode of transportation, land, air, and water using dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed

module of land transport. The model includes cost of transportation namely resource cost and taxes and cost of

externalities such as congestion, pollution, and accident. Congestion cost is endogenous in the model, whereas

pollution and accidental effects are calculated exogenously on the basis of endogenously determined land

transport services. The model measures benefits by the change in prices not only in the transport sector but also

take care of the benefits to other sectors of the economy.

The results show that tax financed investment has reduced share of domestic transport and cost of non-

factor services in the total value of commodities (first objective of NTC). It also reduces transport cost associated

with passenger movement. Improved safety and reliability of transport operations can be concluded from

reduction in environmental and accident cost (2nd

objective of NTC). The transport sector development has

positive impact on macro aggregates such as growth and exports.

JEL: L9, R53, R41, O11, D62, C68

Key Words: Public Investment, Transport, Growth, Trade, Externalities, CGE.



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1. Introduction

Efficient transport system is not only pre requisite for economic development but

also important to achieve the objective of economic integration in the world economy.

Insufficient transport infrastructure results in congestion, delay delivery time, fuel waste,

pollution and accident1

which built inefficiencies in the economy and costs the economy

4 to 6 percent of GDP each year (Shah, 2006, World Bank, 2007), which can be saved by

investing in transport services.

Realizing its importance, the government of Pakistan has initiated National Trade

Corridor Improvement Program (NTCIP) in 2005 to improve logistic and transport

infrastructure so that it can fulfill the demand of economy more efficiently. This five

years program includes all sectors that improve performance of corridor-high way

namely, road transport, railways, airports, and ships etc. The objective of the program is

to reduce the cost of doing business and improve quality of services. This study

quantifies the impact of public investment to improve transport services on the economy

in general and on cost of transportation in particular; i.e., cost of freight and passenger

movement and cost of externalities such as congestion, air pollution and accident.

The costs/benefits can be measured in different ways depending on how improved

facility is achieved, what is the target of program and who benefits from it and who bears

the cost etc. This paper assumes tax financed public investment that not only changedomestic price and demand, but also welfare and poverty. Due to its multi dimensions,

the issue needs to be analyzed in computable general equilibrium frame work which takes

into account inter linkages of transport sector with rest of the economy. First, a social

accounting matrix (SAM) is developed with a detailed transport module. Then, a dynamic

CGE model is developed around this SAM.

The section 2 and 3, respectively, presents review of the transport sector of

Pakistan and review of literature. Section 4 describes the main characteristics of standard

CGE model and modification made for the transport sector analysis. Section five explains

the data base. Section six evaluates the simulation results. Final section concludes the

paper with policy implications.

1 Accidental problem cost about 2 percent of GDP(World Bank, 2007). WHO pointed out that road safety is very important that can

be reduced by investing in signs, training program for drivers and improving the logistic. It smooth traffic flow, reduce frequency of

accident, break down of vehicles and non predictable situation.



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2. Transport in Pakistan

With 160 million of people, transport in Pakistan is one of the rapidly growing

sectors. With all basic modes of transportation—road, railway, air, and water, it accounts

for 12 percent of GDP higher than 6 percent in global economy. Road density is very

low, 0.34 km/sq.km. In 2006, domestic transport2

represents 1.29 percent of the final

value of the commodities against a targeted value of 0.80 percent to be competitive at

global level (Pakistan, 2005). The detail of the transport sector and its facilitating

components such as construction of roads, air ports and harbors and the stock of transport

vehicles are briefly discussed in the subsequent paragraphs.

2.1 Road Network.

Road transport is the most popular mode of transportation in Pakistan.

Table 1: Land Transport in Pakistan

Road Railways

Road

(1)

Vehicles

(2)Route

Passenger

s

Freight

carried

Freight

tonne

Locomotiv

es

Freight

wagon in

'000'nosYear

000 km No. in Mln

Traffic

Congestion=col 2/col 1

000 km millionMillion

tonnekm mln Nos. Nos.

1989-90 162.4 2 12 8.8 84.9 7.7 5.7 753

1994-95 207.7 3 14 8.8 67.7 8.1 6.7 678 30.1

1999-00 248.3 4 16 7.8 68.0 4.8 3.6 597 23.9

2004-05 260.0 6 23 7.8 75.7 6.1 4.8 592 21.6

Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

CO2* emission

metric tons per capita

0.69 0.75 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.75

Source, Pakistan, Various issues

*World development indicators 2006.

The government has initiated many projects to develop it. As a result, total length

of roads has approached to 260 thousand km in 2004-5 with an increase of high type road

by 88 percent since 1990 (Table 1). Currently, the country has 19 national high ways

including motor ways of the length 9031 under national high way authority (NHA). It

accounts for 3.5 percent of Pakistan entire road network (Pakistan, 2007).

A cross country comparison shows that

road density index can be used as a symbol of

prosperity and development. Pakistan has very

low road density, i.e., 0.3 compared 3.1 for

2On average, it is composed of 18 products)

Figure 1: Road Density Comparison

0

1

2

3

4

J a p a n

F r a n c e

H u n g a r y U K I t a l y I n d i a U S A S p a i n

M a l a y s i a

P a k i s t a n

B r a z i l

I n d i n e s i a

C h i n a

A r g e n t i n a

Countries

R o a d L e n g t h / S q k m o

A r e a



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Japan(Figure 1). Currently, Pakistan is endeavoring to gradually increase this density

from 0.32km/sq.km to 0.64 km/sq.km. During 1990-2005, rail services have declined in

terms of passengers, freight transport compared to road share due to priority changed by

the government towards road transport(Table 1). However, in 2004-05, a positive trend in

passenger traveling and freight traffic has been recorded due to railway development

projects implemented to improve in railway services3. In result, income of the Pakistan

Railway has increased from 10.6 billion to 13.2 billion during 2003-04 to 2004-

5[Pakistan, 2005].

2.2 Air Travel Service

The Pakistan International Air (PIA) Line since it established in 1956 provides

transport services on both domestic and international routes. The Civil Aviation

Authority (CAA) manages and develops it. Various measures has been taken to develop a

strong air transport infrastructure during the last fifteen years. 1. Installed a modern

aircraft power system at Quaid-e-Azam International airport, 2. Renovation of existing

terminal at Lahore, 3. Facilities at Nawabshaw airport, 4. Construction of Sukkur

terminal, 5. up gradation of Mohenjodaro Airport etc. Recently, an airport with joint

private/public efforts has been completed at Sialkot. However, the revenue passenger

kilometers (RPK) of PIA has not increased significantly despite increase in number of

planes and available seats (Table 2). Table 2 shows that expenditure increase more than

revenue over fifteen years.

Table 2: Pakistan International Airlines Corporation

Revenue Kmflown 000

RevenueHours Flown

Revenue PassengersCarried 000

Availableseats

Operating (in million of Rs)

Year (mln) 000 Mln bln Km Revenue Expenditure

No of Planes

1989-90 62.6 120.9 5.1 14247. 16412 15728 43

1994-95 72.5 134.7 5.5 15848. 25417 24199 47

1999-00 75.9 134.6 5.1 18265. 36860 39214 46

2004-05 80.7 131.3 5.3 20348 61308 61175 42

Source: Pakistan (Various issues)

2.3 Ports and Shipping

Pakistan has three deep sea ports. Karachi port is a premier port of Pakistan and

handles about 75 percent of the entire national trade. The total volume of cargo handled

3 An amount of Rs. 9.28 has been allocated for the railways during 2004-05(Pakistan, 2005). The development of railway

includes manufacturing of 16 diesel electric engines, manufacturing of 66 coaches.



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at Karachi natural port was 19 million tones including 15 million tones of imports and 4

million tones of exports in 1989-90. The cargo handling has doubled over the years

(Table 3).

Table 3: Transportation of Goods and Services (Million of tones)

Cargo at Karachi Port

Year Total Import Export No of shipping Vessels

1989-90 19.1 15.0 4.1 28

1994-95 23.1 17.5 5.6 15

1999-00 23.8 18.1 5.6 15

2004-05 28.6 22.1 6.5 14

Source: Pakistan (various issues)

Port Qasim is Pakistan’s second deep sea port and meeting more than 40 percent

of shipping requirements of the country becomes busiest port of the country. Currently a

diverse range of commodities such as furnace oil, chemicals, edible oil, coal, wheat,fertilizers etc are handled there. The cargo handling has significantly increased i.e., 43

percent increase during 2003-04 to 2004-05. Gwadar port is third deep sea port of

Pakistan situated on the Balochistan port and is currently under construction.

Pakistan national shipping corporation is a group of companies operates fleet of

14 vessels with a total dead weight carrying capacity of 570466 tons (DWT). They are

serving not only national trade but also participating in international trade.

2.4 NTC—Program of Pakistan (Pakistan, 2007a). In the year 2005,

Government of Pakistan has taken major initiatives around the National Trade Corridor

(NTC) to bring the quality of transport services to

international standards. The two objectives among

others are: (1) reduced share of domestic transport

and cost of non-factor services in the total value of

commodities, (2) Improved safety and reliability of

transport operations etc. The paper focuses on the

above mentioned two objectives of the program for

the analysis.

2.5 Investment in Transport Sector

Construction as a whole contributes to

growth process through higher multiplier effects

Figure 2 Private vs Public Investment in

Transport

0

200000

400000

1999-00 2004-05 2006-07

Public Private

Figure 3. Private VS Public Investment in

Construction

0

10000

20000

1999-00 2004-05 2006-07

Public Private



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with a number of backward and forward linkages4. The figure 2 shows that private

investment registered an increase, but public sector investment has declined in transport

capital. Figure 6 shows that private and public investment in construction has increased,

which includes transport-infrastructure also.

2.6 Externalities: Congestion, Pollution and accidents

Vehicles on the road have registered a sharp increase over the last fifteen years

from 2 million to 6 million[Table 1], which has resulted in congestion i.e., vehicles per

kilometer has increased from 12vehicles/km to 23vehicles/km. Air pollution is increasing

function of transportation facilities. During 1995 to 2002, carbon dioxide emission has

increased from 0.69 metric tons per capita to 0.75 metric tons per capita with an increase

in traffic load on the road (Table 1). In the absence sufficient public transport

infrastructure, tremendous increase in vehicles on the road has deteriorated air quality.

Road traffic accidents are an important and preventable cause of death.

Downing(1985) shows that

Punjab(The largest province of

Pakistan) has fatal accidents rate per

million vehicles kilometers, 16 times

higher than the rate for UK (0.49

compared to 0.03) (Figure 7). Razzak

and Luby(1998) also shows that death rates for Karachi is much higher than cities in

developed countries i.e., 11.3 people die per 10000 vehicles registered in Karachi, 1.4 die

in Tokyo, and 2.8 die in UK (Manchester) for a similar number of vehicles. Fatality index

is extremely higher for Pakistan i.e., 28 percent [4th

highest of 29 countries]5. The studies

in other countries suggest that low cost engineering improvements have considerable

potential for accident reduction.

3. Literature Review

A number of studies have evaluated transport sector development and the issues

related to transport such as congestion, pollution, and accident using computable general

equilibrium and partial equilibrium models. The CGE models have advantage over partial

4 The country has about 40 building material industries, which support investment and growth environment. 5 The reason may be inadequacy of emergency health facilities.

Figure 4. Deaths per thousand Vehicles

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

N i g e r

i a

E t h i

o p i a

L e s o

t h o

P a k i s

t a n

T a i w a

n

M a l

a w i

S w a z

i l a n d

K e n y

a

L i b e

r i a N i

g e r

C o n g o

T u r k e

y

S r i L a

n k a

M o r

r o c o

J o r d

a n

S i e r

r a L e o n

e

B o t s

w a n a U p

p e r

T o g o

T u n i s

i a

S e n e

g a l

C o l o

m b i a

P a n a

m a

T h a i l a

n d C h

i l e

M a u

r i t i u s

H o n g k o

n g

M a l

a y s i a

A f g h a

n i s t a

n

e o f t e

n d e v

e l . . .



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equilibrium models as they allow tracking of the changes in the economy not only in

transport sector but can also be linked with other sectors and welfare and poverty.

However, they do not allow for the same degree of modeling details of the transport

sector as partial equilibrium models. The results of few studies are discussed below.

Conard and Heng (2006) develop a computable general equilibrium model

incorporating congestion cost and determine optimal tax financed investment in road

infrastructure. The results show that investment in infrastructure reduces congestion cost.

However, the study ignores fundamental rule that a better infrastructure can generate

additional traffic. Mayeres and Proost (2004) discuss various principles of transport

pricing—average cost and marginal cost—with alternative ways to finance the deficit,

marginal labor tax rate or transfers in general equilibrium frame work. The results show

that welfare impact depends not only on presence of budget constraint but also on the

flexibility with which that constraint is to be met, congestion and ratio of transport

revenue to financial costing in the base year. The results recommend marginal cost

pricing rule for welfare enhancing impact.

Ellis and Hine (1995) analyze transport sectors using participatory mapping,

historical time trend analysis, vehicle preference matrix, and semi-structured

questionnaires. The study found substantial difference in transport tariff between Africa

and Asia due to low vehicle diversity in African countries, which is result of low income

level, insufficient support from the government, and poor back up services. To improve

the supply or quality of rural transport services, and/or reducing the cost of their services

should deregulate transport market. Government should promote alternative modes.

The study conducted by Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) [World

Bank (2007)] consists of review of the Bank’s assistance to the transport sector in

developing countries over the last ten years. The review suggests that developing

countries have made substantial improvement. The study concludes that management is

the most important for improved out come. Increase private sector participation along

with policies targeting to improved management especially in road transport have

enormous impact on transport efficiency. IEG (World Bank, 2007) also pointed out that

the cost of road accidents is a heavy burden on developing countries i.e., more than 3000

deaths result daily from road accidents. Low and middle-income countries account fro 85



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percent of such deaths and 90 percent of injuries (1 to 2 percent of GDP, more than the

total development aid received by these countries.). WHO and World Bank suggests that

such injuries are a growing public health issue, disproportionately affecting vulnerable

groups of road users in developing countries. World Bank (1994) shows that

infrastructure contribution to growth and poverty reduction could be significantly

increased by strengthening incentives to transport suppliers in three ways: 1. more

autonomous to management with accountability process. (2) Restructuring sectors and

regulations to promote effective competition (3) giving users and the stakeholders more

voice and responsibility in planning and regulatory arrangements. Downing (1995) using

data from Pakistan indicate that low cost engineering improvement, particularly in black

spot can reduce accident in the country if backed with improvement in training and

enforcement. The study also shows that traffic police can be used for maximum benefits.

4. Computable General Equilibrium Model

First, main characteristics of CGE model6, which is static and Walrasian in nature,

are discussed. The model is extended with a detailed module of land transport.

4.1 The characteristics of a standard CGE

The model is built around SAM2002 (Dorosh et al, 2004). Four types of

economic agents are: two consumer groups, eighteen production sectors, the government

and the foreign sector. Two primary factors are labor and capital. Two types of

households are included in the model representing two regions of Pakistan—rural and

urban. Consumers in different groups differ in their productivity and income they receive,

transfers from government, firms, rest of the world and tastes. Households in the same

groups are similar in all respects. It was assumed that markets are perfectly competitive

and in the equilibrium all the factors and product markets are cleared.

In the production process, price dependent input coefficients are used. Labor and

capital together determines value added in each sector. CES technology is assumed

between labor and capital. Producers maximize profits at the equilibrium—zero profit

condition holds. The demands for factors of production, labor and capital are fulfilled

with fixed supply quantities. In factor market, all factors can move freely and rental rates

adjust to bring equilibrium in factor market.

6 For detail see Siddiqui, 2007a and b, Siddiqui and Kemal, 2006, Siddiqui et al, 2006.



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The incomes from factors of production are distributed among institutions in fixed

shares in the base year. Households receive all labor income, a part of capital income

from production, transfer payments from the government, and dividends from firms.

They also receive a certain amount of foreign exchange in terms of remittances that is

used to finance the trade deficit. Household demand is specified by linear expenditure

system (LES)-maximizing Stone-Geary utility function subject to household’s budget

constraint. Their expenditure includes tax payments to government, which are specified

as fixed shares of household income. Households’ saving are specified as fixed share of

their income. The government collects tax revenue from production and households and

distribute them among households (indexed to the domestic price level), to production

sectors as subsidy payments and final consumption expenditure (of fixed commodity

quantities). Government savings is defined as the difference between government

revenues and expenditures. Enterprises income originates from capital and paid to

households as dividends and rest is saved.

The Armington assumption is imposed--commodities produced locally are

assumed to be imperfect substitute for the imported commodities and combined with CES

technology. The economy is assumed to be a price-taker on the import side. The imports

are subjected to an import tariff. In the market, the ratio between demands for products

from these two sources depends on relative prices. The allocation of domestic outputs

between domestic and foreign markets (Exports) is determined by the relative prices

received in domestic and foreign markets. Constant elasticity of transformation is

assumed between two types of goods. Export demand is a function of the ratio of world

export price to domestic export price (fob) and base year export demand. The baseline

equilibrium is characterized by a trade deficit, which is financed by foreign exchange to

households (remittances).

Total supply in the domestic economy consists of domestic goods for local

consumption and imports. Demand side consists of households’ consumption,

government consumption, intermediate input demands and investment demand.

Consumer prices (composite) are determined by demand and supply equilibrium

condition for each commodity. Total demand for investment and government



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consumption in real terms are determined by deflating with their respective price

deflators.

The three blocks, savings-investment, government, and the rest of the world are

associated with the macro constraints of the model. The total purchase of investment

goods is financed by savings from the domestic institutions and the rest of the world. (ii)

The fiscal balance--determined by the difference between government revenue and

spending; and (iii) the external trade balance implicitly equates the supply and demand

for foreign exchange. The difference between the two is current account balance (CAB).

4.2. Transport Externalities in CGE

The basic structure of the CGE model mentioned above is extended to incorporate

congestion as in Conard and Heng (2006)7. Congestion reduces the productivity of

transport capital in the production sector and dependent on the stock of infrastructure

associated with transport, roads, railways tracks, airports, and ports etc, which facilitates

transportation of goods and passengers. Similarly, transport capital (vehicles) such as

cabs, buses, trucks are used in land transport are also included in the model explicitly,

which are important to determine congestion, pollution and accidents. All these factors

together determine the intermediate input of transport services in each sector. Air

pollution and accidents do not affect consumer behavior but indirectly affect domestic

resources. The change in accidents leads to change the loss of GDP.

First we assume that transport services are proportional to the transport capital

stock that can be improved by a better provision of transport infrastructure (KI)—

construction of roads.

(1) )/ _ ( KI tr alpha EXP KT KT o −=

Where alpha_tr >0 and as KI ∞ full utilization of the stock of transport

equipment KTo

is achieved. In other words, transport services depend on congestion Z

(vehicales/kilometer) and elasticity (ε KT,Z)of effective transport capital wrt z

(congestion), which is less than zero. The equation is defined below

(2) Z KT Z KT TR oe

ser ,*

ε =

7 For a detailed discussion on this module see Conard and Heng(2006).



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The higher Z, the less productive transport capital, which effect cost of

production--transport services used to move goods and services from one place to other.

Congestion index is defined below

(3) 1

)(

)(

2

1

_ *

_ 2

1 ≥=

∏

∏+

=

+

=

N

i

k beta

k

k beta N

i

o

KT

KT

Z

Where n+2 is number of sectors and and 2 households, KT is actual transport

capital used in transport services and KT is optimal capital stock. An extended network

of the roads and better connection between modes of transportation (increase stock of

transportation) improves the efficiency of the stock of transport capital. Cost of

transportation increases if Z>1. The stock of transport infrastructure (KI) in equation 1

reflects the direct effect of KI on capacity utilization which is defined below

(4) 1)/exp()( <−= KI KI CU α

Under optimal allocation Pc_cong(Price after including congestion cost) is defined below

(5) cong

c

s C KT PKT KT PKT += 010**

KT0

is capital stock higher than the stock in the absence of congestion, which can be

saved if more infrastructure is provided. Congestion cost Ccong is defined as

(6) ]**[0

∑∧

= KT PKT C equip j KT icong ε β

βi is the size of externality (congestion) caused by industry j.

Taking the elasticity (ε KT,Z) from conard and Heng(2006), we calibrate cost of

congestion in the absence of congestion data for Pakistan. To calculate congestion index

Z we assume that actual stock of transport capital is 20 percent higher than required given

the size of infra structure. This module is developed for in depth analysis of land

transport system, which can be extended for other mode of transportation. If elasticity is

high the congestion cost externality for the economy is high and stocks of KT should be

reduced. In order to understand modeling of the direct and indirect effects of investment

in transport infrastructure see Figure 1 in Appendix I.



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The level of other two externalities, pollution and accidents8, are calculated with

pre and post simulation data and do not affect consumer behavior. The marginal external

cost of accidents (net output losses in terms of transport capital goods, and medical costs)

is calculated assuming that relationship between accident risks and traffic flow exists,

which also depends on the investment in transport services (Downing, 1980). The

relationship between accidental fatality rate and per head transport capital is defined in

equation 7

(7)ac

TSER PC eac

Tser e KT

KT

ACC σ α −= ][

Where ACC = Accidental cost, KTe

= total transport services using transport capital

(vehicles) and KTe pc is transport services per capita. The value of σ (-0.44) is taken from

Downing (1980) and alpha is calibrated using SAM values and population taken from

(Pakistan, 2005).

The model evaluates the transport-fuel related emissions cost before and after

simulations. Pollution creating input in transport in the model is petroleum. The change

in provision of transport services lead to changes in demand for petroleum. As a result

cost of emission changes. The change in transport services determine the intermediate

input of petroleum which in turn determines the change in pollution cost associated with

this input in transport. An equation (modified version of equation in Ryan, Miguel,

Miller, 2002) for emission associated with petroleum is introduced to calculate cost of

emission as follows.

(8) ∑ ∑ ∑∑∑= ==

+++=TRi TRi TRh

TRhTRj

p

ii

TRi

p

iTR OFC C ICJ XS vt EN ][*cos _ π

First environment cost associated with transport is calculated assuming same relationship

exists between emission and transport services as total emission and output. Using

emission data from World Development Indicators (2006) environmental cost of transport sector is calculated.

For the air and water transport, passenger and freight traffic are defined on the

basis of input-output table. No other module for transport equipment or larger activities

8 It is predicted that by 2020 road accidents will be the third largest contributor to the global burden of mortality and

injury.



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on airport and harbour has been included in the paper. For these two sectors, we discuss

results with reference to change in transport services only.

4.3. Dynamic Features of the Model

For the long run analysis model is run for ten years. The capital stock is defined

on the basis of an average capital output ratio (ACOR). One of the channels, suggested

by new growth theory, by which trade enhances growth is that a country can obtain

advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. The model incorporates it

through change in factor productivity. Growth in labour force and total factor

productivity (or technological progress) increases at an exogenous rate of two percent and

one percent respectively. All other exogenous variables also increase with exogenous

growth rate of two percent. The investment demand equation by target determines the

pattern of reallocation of new investment among different sectors of the economy after

the shock. The model is solved for each year.

The calibration of the model consists of the selection of parameters such that the

behavior of the economic agents around the bench mark equilibrium and their valuation

of the transport externalities correspond with values given in the literature. Here,

congestion is assumed to occur only on the road network.

5. Construction of Social Accounting Matrix

The starting point is SAM (Dorosh et al , 2004), which depict the situation in

Pakistan in 2002 and represents the bench mark equilibrium. First, the production sectors

are aggregated into 11 sectors from 34 sectors—agriculture, mining, manufacturing

(Food, textile, cement, wood, petroleum, and other manufacturing), construction,

transport and other services. These sectors buy primary inputs from households and using

them in the production process generates value added. In exchange of supplying factor

services, households receive income as wages and returns to capital.

Table 4: Structure of SAM

Sectors in original SAM Disaggregation Data sources1.Transport 1. Land 2. Air, 3.Water, 4. Other

2.Petroleum 5. Petroleum

3. Construction 1. land infrastructure [Road and Rail tracks], 2.

Ports, 3. Air ports, 4. All other construction

4.Other manufacturing 6.Transport equipment, 7.Other manufacturing

Supply and Use Table for 1990.

SAM 1974-75 SAM 1984-85

National Account of Pakistan, Pakistan

Integrated Household Survey(PIHS)



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The main focus of the paper is to analyze the impact of development of transport

infrastructure to improve transportation in the country. The SAM2002 has four sectors

which contain data to analyze the issue under focus—transport. 1. Construction, 2.

Transport services. 3. Transport equipment [which includes transport vehicles]4. Energy

(Petroleum). Here, for the purpose of detailed analysis, construction and transport

services are disaggregated by mode of transportation land, air and water using

information from various sources. Keeping all agriculture sectors together, industry and

services sectors are disaggregated for the detailed analysis of transport services. Industrial

sector includes transport related sectors; cement, wood [construction goods], transport

goods [petroleum, transport equipment, and other manufacturing] and non transport

sectors—food and textile. Construction and transport services have been disaggregated

by mode of transportation; road, air, water. All other transportation activities are

aggregated into one9

Rest of the services sectors are aggregated into one.

Table 5: The Cost Structure of Transport Services.

Sectors Land Transport (Road and railway)

Air Transport

Water Transport

Other Transport

Agriculture 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mining 0.04 2.73 5.39 5.32

Food manufactured 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.01

Text and leather 0.14 0.27 0.16 0.33

Wood 1.86 0.23 0.04 0.01

Cement 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.06

Petroleum 57.54 45.11 46.56 1.52

Transport Equipment 6.29 0.09 2.22 7.96

Other manufactured 16.24 37.57 0.53 57.26

Land-construction 2.19 0.00 0.00 0.00

Air-construction 0.00 0.83 0.00 0.00

Water-construction 0.00 0.00 1.48 0.00

Other-construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.94

Transport-Land 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.74

Transport-Air 0.02 3.36 0.15 0.52

Transport-Water 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19

Transport-other 0.06 1.29 0.91 1.04

Other services 15.48 8.03 42.50 18.10

Total 100 100 100 100

Capital 39.2 58.4 82.0 30.2

Labor 60.8 41.6 18.0 69.8

Total 100 100 100 100

9 The storage include, oil and gas pipelines, transport handling, and services establishments and communication services rendered by

Pakistan post office, Telecom, PTV, Radio etc.



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Since construction10

activities differ in both nature of output and input structure,

different type of construction activities are identified. The output originating from

construction sector flows to the ownership of dwellings and rest to investment. The

construction also sector covers all repairs, addition, alteration and demolishing activities

carried out in the economy by households, private bodies, public institutions and the

general government is considered as intermediate construction in each sector. The

investment goods are determined targeted sectors and disaggregated by private and public

sector. Table 5. The table shows that transport services are energy (petroleum) intensive.

Land, air and water transport use 57.5 percent, 45.1 percent and 46.6 percent of

petroleum [Table 5].

The principal source of data on GFCF in building and infrastructure is from

national accounts. The construction associated with mode of transportation, the

government is the principal agents. A distinction is also made between passenger and

Table 6 : Cost Structure of Production activities

Sectors Transport

Services

Other

Inputs

Value

Added

Total

Agriculture 3.50 39.06 57.43 100

Mining 10.11 15.31 74.58 100

Food manufactured 2.26 71.15 26.59 100

Text and leather 3.82 74.78 21.40 100

Wood 4.25 59.46 36.29 100

Cement 3.25 41.78 54.96 100

Petroleum 3.02 77.62 19.36 100

Transport Equipment 8.24 37.51 54.25 100

Other manufactured 4.69 59.62 35.69 100

Land-construction 2.77 59.97 37.26 100

Air-construction 0.00 61.68 38.32 100

Water-construction 0.00 61.72 38.28 100

Other-construction 0.02 46.86 53.13 100

Transport-Land 0.04 44.26 55.70 100

Transport-Air 4.26 86.87 8.88 100

Transport-Water 0.27 24.38 75.35 100

Transport-other 0.46 18.17 81.37 100

Other services 5.42 27.18 67.39 100

Total 3.74 46.55 49.70 100

Agriculture 3.74 46.55 49.70 100

10 The construction sector covers all repairs, addition, alteration and demolishing activities carried out in the economy by households,

private bodies, public institutions and the general government. New construction work and repair and maintenance of buildings and

civil engineering work.



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freight transport services. Freight transport is considered as intermediate consumption,

whereas final consumption expenditure (household) is considered as movement of

passengers. The structure of cost of production is presented by mode of transportation in

The Table 6 shows that on average transport cost is 3.7 percent in production activity. It

is relatively high for mining products and transport equipment, 10.1 percent and 8.2

percent respectively and very low in construction activities. The construction is activity

which is produced at the place it is needed.

Land transport services are largely demanded by urban households [Table 7].

Both urban and rural households with thirty and seventy percent of population uses 50

percent each of total land transport services. Air and Water transport are largely used by

urban households in the domestic economy. Any improvement in this sector will benefit

more to urban households. The unique feature is that the production of it is not storable

and highly time and route specific.

Table 7: Demand for Transport Services (%)

Rural Households

UrbanHouseholds

Rest of the world

Total

Transport-Land 50.26 49.74 0.00 100

Transport-Air 5.50 15.58 78.92 100

Transport-Water 4.59 4.80 90.61 100

6. Simulation Experiments

The above model—with externalities—is subjected to assess the impacts of

development of transport sector through tax financed public investment in transport

infrastructure and transport services. These projects are costly and there is need to pay

special attention to find financial resources. They can be financed through domestic

resources or through multinational assistance. Domestic resources can be raised through

increasing saving, cut in government expenditure, or raising government revenue through

taxes, which can have different impact on macro aggregates and welfare and poverty. In

this exercise we use tax financed investment. Following simulations are conducted for the

short run and long run analysis. One year and ten years, respectively, are the time frame

for short run and long run analysis.

• Business as usual (BaU) growth path



- 17 -

• Tax-financed investment in transport sector

The discussion of results focuses on the change in cost of production, demand for

transport services and externalities. The performance of the transport is measured by

change in transport cost, demand for transport capital, congestion, the emission and the

accidents etc. The comparison of the results for short run and long run reveals how the

conclusions change between the two periods.

The general equilibrium model presented in the earlier section treats, labor

supply, government consumption in real term, CAB, exchange rate, public investment by

target, remittance income, government transfers to households, transport capital,

exogenous variables. The model solves for local production, imports, exports, income

levels, congestion, demand for transport capital, household income and expenditure,

government revenue etc. All exogenous variables grow by 2 percent over the years.

In these experiments, public investment in transport infrastructure and transport

services is increased by 20 percent. This type of government decisions require policy

makers to have a good idea of the extra costs caused by the activity, Here, it is assumed

that public investment is tax financed. The benefit/losses in the presence of market

imperfections are measured by the variation in the cost of production which lead to

change in prices not only of transport services but also in the prices of other goods and

services produced in the economy and the change in returns to factor of production. Thechange in cost of production is the profit/loss of the producer. The users completely pay

for resource cost. The change in this cost shows the benefit or loss to the users

(consumers). Congestion is determined endogenously associated with demand for

transport capital with given stock of infrastructure (transport capital/km). The cost

associated with fuel emission and accidents are estimated before and after the policy

shock exogenously based on values of transport services determined with in the model.

The development of transport infrastructure lowers the price of transport and cost

of production. On the other hand increase tax rate lead to increase in prices. The net

change in prices determines the impact on macro aggregates. The exports of construction

material [cement, wood, and other manufactured commodities] decline as domestic

demand increases due to development of infrastructure, etc. The increase stock of

infrastructure of road reduces congestion which lower demand for transport capital by



- 18 -

firms and households. This lowers environmental cost also. Similarly improved transport

services reduce accidental cost. For air and water transport we keep focus on

transportation cost only11

not the pollution or any other externality. The changes in factor

prices and government revenue determine equilibrium household income levels. The

impacts on poverty depend on not only on income levels but also on price levels. The

higher incomes and lower prices generate lower poverty incidences. Even with higher

prices, poverty reduces if income increase is higher than price increase. The urban

households are the main user of transport services so a reduction in transport prices

would have positive impacts on urban households indicating that urban households get

the advantage of lower prices due to investment in transport infrastructure than the rural

households. However, they are also major contributor to domestic saving and if savings

adjust to finance investment they bear larger negative effect in terms of consumption and

welfare even in the presence of lower prices. Thus results are subject to the adjustment

mechanism—closure. The following sections discuss the results of the simulations.

Simulation 1: BaU path.

A dynamic CGE allows economy to grow in the absence of any policy change.

First, a business as usual (BaU) path is depicted for one year and ten years which is used

as a reference scenario for short run and long run analysis, respectively. This exercise

takes into account efficiency effect as well as accumulation effects in the absence of any

policy change. The results indicate growth path for 2003 to 20012 in the absence of any

policy change. In this exercise output grows by 9.5 percent over ten years with value

added growth 4 percent per annum on average. This shows decline in intermediate input

mainly transport services. Exports expand by 9 percent over ten years. The results of

simulations for short run and long run are compared to get an idea for future policy

framework.

Simulation 2: Tax Financed Public Investment in Transport Infrastructure and

Transport services. (Short run Vs long run effects)

In this exercise public investment is used as instrument which entered the model

as exogenous variables. Simultaneous increase in public investment in transport

infrastructure and transport services by twenty percent for each of the three transport

11 Majority of these services are used for export services, which need to be modeled in further detail.



- 19 -

modes, land, air, water is fed into the model. Additional tax on consumption is imposed

to raise resources to finance this investment. The results of this tax financed extension of

transport infrastructure and transport services are presented in tables 8 to 11.

The first impact of increase in tax financed investment is that stock of transport

infrastructure—road, ports and harbors—have increased. The price of land transport does

not change in the short run but decline by [-3.1] percent in the long run. As a result,

demand for land transport services (intermediate input) for freight movement rise by 0.24

percent in the short but decline significantly in the long run, by -7.8 percent. The

households’ demand for land transport (expenditure on travel) follows the same pattern in

the rural area. But expenditure on land transport by urban households decline in the short

run as well as in the long run, they are the major user of land transport. On the other

hand, price of air transport and water transport rise in the short run by 0.9 and 1.03

percent, but significantly decline in the long run; -1.3 and -13.2 percent, respectively.

This indicates public investment in the short run do not generate enough supply of

infrastructure, which results in reduction in prices to compensate for the price hike due to

tax raise. In the short run, demand for air transport and water transport decline by the

producers for the freight movement and by households for passenger movement in the

urban area. In the long urn air transport cost reduces in productive activities as well as

expenditure by both types of households. The expenditure on water transport by all the

three users increases with significant decline in prices. This proves the argument made by

Down that better infrastructure provision generate additional traffic (Conrad and Heng,

2006).

In the short run, taxes rise more than decline in prices. As a result price level in

the country (GDP-deflator) rise by 1 percent. Though improved supply of infrastructure

has negative effect on prices, but this effect is not enough to compensate for rise in taxes.

The relative prices for all other commodities decline or remain unchanged leaving

consumer price index unchanged in the short run. Wile in the long run consumer prices

decline for majority of commodities due to significant decline in cost of transport

services (freight cost and passenger cost). This indicates that development of transport

services renders benefits in the long run. Consumer prices rise for transport equipment

and petroleum [major input in transport services] by 1.4 and 2 percent, respectively



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[Appendix II, Table 1]. The effect of rise in tax cancelled out by the decline in

transportation cost of the users. As a result consumer price index (CPI) has declined by [-

0.75 percent] in the long run over BaU value.

The effects on macro aggregates show that output has risen in the short run by

(0.04) percent due to increase in cost of intermediate inputs which has risen by 0.07

percent. In the long run, value added increase over BaU value by 0.02 percent and output

decline by 0.04 percent due to decline in cost of intermediate inputs by 0.1 percent.

Intermediate cost associated with freight transport has decline in the long run

significantly for land transport and air transport, whereas water transport rises which is

mainly used for export purposes. However, this needs to be analyzed further by extending

the model.

Table 8: Macro Effects of Higher Public Investment in Transport (variation over BaU )

20 percent increase in Public Investment in Transport infrastructure financed by

Consumption taxesVariables

Short Run Long Run

Out Put 0.04 -0.04

GDP 0.00 0.02

Consumer Price 0.00 -0.75

GDP deflator 1.02 -8.46

Intermediate Demand 0.07 -0.10

Freight transport cost

Transport-Land 0.24 -7.77

Transport-Air -0.001 -3.24

Transport-Water -0.16 0.29

Passenger Transport Cost

RuralTransport-Land

0.05 -5.74

Transport-Air 0.11 -7.74


UrbanTransport-Land

-0.18 -3.2

Transport-Air -0.32 -4.93


Trade

Export 0.11 0.06

Imports 0.02 0.00Wage Rate 1.02 -8.4

Returns to Capital 0.00 -9.4

Exports increase in the short run as well as in the long run by 0.11 and 0.06

percent over their respective BaU values. The demand for investment goods; cement,

wood, and other manufacturing rises in the long run by [2.7, 11.4, and 1,1 percent]



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respectively [Table 9]. Improved infrastructure provision reduces the demand for

transport capital by [-0.04] percent over BaU value [Table 9]. In result demand for

petroleum fell by 1.7 percent.

Table 9: Cost of Infrastructure Development-variation over BaU Path

Demand for construction

goodsVariablesShort Run Long Run

Wood 0.10 2.74

Cement 0.20 11.36

Petroleum -0.20 -1.74

Transport Equipment 0.24 9.17

Other Manufacturing 0.11 1.12

Transport Capital (Optimal) 1.7 -0.04

The benefit of improved infrastructure provision includes the variation in prices

of all goods and services, including land and labor. The change in other variables such as

exports, imports, labor demand also reveals benefit or losses to the economy etc. Table 1

in Appendix II shows the impacts on volumes of goods produced, exported and imported

in detail. A rise in export of all commodities can be observed except food and textile,

which decline marginally.12

Imports of mining commodities (a major input in petroleum

sector) and petroleum (major input in transport services) increases significantly in the

long run (Table 1 in Appendix II).

An increase/decline in labor demand can be observed in transport and other

related sectors (Table 1 in Appendix II). An increase in production of construction and

sectors related to transport and other sectors such as mining, cement, wood, other

manufacturing have drawn resources from agriculture, food and textile. The changes in

production activities, which ultimately have changed factor demand lead to significant

decline in wage rate and capital rental rates by [-8.4 and -9.4] percent (Table 8),

respectively, in the long run.

Congestion Cost Congestion reduces transport services provided by transport capital in the

presence of insufficient transport infrastructure.

12 The demand for these goods fell because of decline in households’ consumption that indicates that

welfare deteriorates. This can be explored further by changing the closure of the model.



- 22 -

Table 10. Externalities

Externalities Short Run Long Run

Congestion Cost 0.10 -3.50

Pollution cost -0.12 -2.05

Accident cost -0.07 -1.15

The results show that tax financed development of transport infrastructure and

services increase congestion cost marginally in the short run but significantly reduce

congestion cost by 3.5 percent over BaU values in the long run. The results also show

that increase stock of road reduces demand for transport capital by [-0.04] percent [Table

9]. The reduction in congestion due to increase stock of transport infrastructure has led to

firms lower transport capital [Table 10].

Environmental benefits/loss: This is measured by the net difference in environmental

costs between the BaU values and the simulated values. We assume that this difference

does not influence the demand or the supply since these costs are not perceived by users

or by producers and doest not feed back into the model. This effect is calculated

exogenously in the model on the basis of change in transport services, which are

endogenously determined in the model. The results show that reduction in demand for

transport services and transport capital reduces air pollution by [-2.05] percent [Table

10], which would affect health status of the individuals positively. However, health

indicators have not been included in the present model to measure change in health

status.

Accident cost

Accident cost is determined from the pre and post simulation values of land

transport service using equation 7 given in the model. The results show that increase

investment in transport sector 13

reduce accidental cost by 1.2 percent over the BaU value

in the long run and by 1.08 percentage points over the short run impact [Table 10].

13 Traffic lights, yellow marks on the road etc



- 23 -

Households Income and Poverty Incidence

Table 11 shows the impacts on income and household’s consumer price indices

for the representative households. The income earned and CPI faced by each

representative household reduces at different degrees depending on their base values of

income and consumption.

Table 11: Households income and welfare indicators

Short Run Income CPI Poverty

Rural Households 1 0 Reduce

Urban Households 1 -1 Reduces

Long Run

Rural Households -8.2 -1.5 increase

Urban Households -7.9 -1.5 Increase

The impacts on income poverty are positive in the short run as income of both

households increase, whereas CPI for rural households remains constant but reduces for

urban households. In the long run, the negative on poverty incidence can be deduced as

income decline more than CPIs for both representative households(Table 10). But this

will be thoroughly analyzed at the later stage.

7. Conclusion

It has been widely recognized that economies with better road and

communications network are more competitive and successful. A good transport system

should be comprehensive and sustainable–economically, environmentally and socially. In

view of this, government has started NTC improvement program. The aim of the NTC is

to improve transport services, reduce costs of transportation which ultimately concerned

with reduction in the costs of production. In this paper, the two objectives of the

programs, have been focused; (1) Reduce share of domestic transport and cost of non-

factor services in the total value of commodities. (2) Improve safety and reliability of transport operations etc.

These objectives can only be achieved through public investment. However, this

type of government decisions requires policy makers to have a good idea of the extra

costs caused by the activity and how it should be generated. This analysis should include

not only resource cost, but also the cost associated with externalities such as congestion



- 24 -

cost, accident cost14

, and the environmental costs15

. The transport users completely pay

for resource cost. But fuel emission and accident cost is not perceived by the consumers

and do not affect demand and supply of services. But it has detrimental affects on human

life. So these effects are estimated before and after the exogenous shock.

The results show that development of transport sector brings multi dimension

benefits and help to achieve the two key objectives of NTC program. Tax financed

investment has reduced share of domestic transport and cost of non-factor services in the

total value of commodities (first objective of NTC). It reduces transport cost associated

with passenger movement too. It has improved safety and reliability of transport

operations etc by reducing environmental and accident cost (second objective). It has

positive impact on growth and exports. The results show that public investment renders

benefits in the long run, whereas in the short run it produces negative effect.

The reduction in cost associated with externalities shows that development of this

sector bring about not only economic benefits but may also be helpful in reducing human

poverty. However, this needs to be modeled explicitly. The main policies comes out of

this study is that government should develop transport infrastructure for larger economic

benefits in the long run. Taxes can be used to overcome the problem of resource

constraint. The alternative way to finance the investment will be the focus of the future

work to find optimal policy to generate financial resources. Government investment

transport services can help to avoid output losses by reducing accident cost.

In reality air pollution and accident risks also affect consumption choices. Such

feed back effects—discussed in Mayeres and Regemorter (2003)—will increase the

usefulness of the model. The air and water transport, are defined on the basis of input

output table. No other module for these two modes is incorporated for detailed analysis.

Other poverty targeted interventions such as schools, clinic nutrition programs and even

credit extension depend on transport in one way or the other. For instance, in developing

countries, 40 to 60 percent of people live more than 8 miles away from health facilities.

Development of transport infrastructure would also increase the benefit in terms of

14 It is predicted that by 2020 road accidents will be the third largest contributor to the global burden of mortality and

injury.15 Accident and the time cost has double dimension cost born by the users and the cost born by the other users on the

road. At the time being it is not explicitly broken down into these components.



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human capital development. Thus this sector has huge benefits. Further work is needed to

unveil the total benefits of development of this sector.



- 26 -

Reference

Conrad, Klaus and Stefan Heng(2006) “Financing Road infrastructure by

Savings in Congestion Costs: A CGE Analysis” Mannheim University, Department of

Economics, Seminargebaude, Mannheim .

Dorosh. P, Niazi. M. K, Nazli. H (2004), ‘A Social Accounting Matrix for

Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results, A Background Research Paper for the

Pakistan Rural Factor Markets Study.

Downing, A J, (1985). Road Accidents in Pakistan and the need for

Improvements in driver training and traffic law enforcement. In PTRC Summer Annual

meeting, University of Sussex, 15-18 July 1985, Proc of Seminar H. London PTRC

Education and Research Services, 77-92. Overseas unit Transport and Road Research

Laboratory, Crow Thorne Berkshire United Kingdom.

Ellis, S and J. L. Hine (1995) ‘The transition from non-motorized to motorized

modes of transport’, ODA, Overseas Centre, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne

Berkshire United Kingdom.

Mayeres, Inge and Proost Stef (2004), ‘Testing Alternative Transport Pricing

Strategies: A CGE Analysis for Belgium’ Paper Presented at the conference on “Input-

Output and General Equilibrium : Data, Modelling and Policy Analysis ”, Brussel,

Belgium.

Mayeres I, Van Dender K (2003) Modelling the health related benefits of

environmental policies – A CGE analysis for the EU countries with GEM-E3. ETE

Discussion Paper 2003 10 (www.econ. kuleuven. ac. Be /ew / academic / energmil /

publications.

Pakistan, Government of. (2005), Economic Survey, Economic Advisor Wing,

Finance Division, Islamabad.

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Finance Division, Islamabad.

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Pakistan, 2007, Pakistan: National Trade Corridor Program, SAR Regional

Strategy Update.



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Razzak A. Junaid and Stephen P Luby, 1998. Estimating deaths and injuries due

to road traffic accidents in Karachi, Pakistan, through the Capture-recapture method.

International Epidemiological Association, UK. 27: 866-870.

Siddiqui, Rizwana (2007a), ‘Dividends of Liberalization of Agriculture Trade Trickle

Down to poor in Pakistan’,

Shah, Asad, (2006), ‘National Trade Corridor’ presented in Pakistan Development

Forum.

Siddiqui Rizwana (2007b), ‘Welfare and Poverty Implications of Global Rice and

Agricultural Trade Liberalisation for Pakistan’ Chapter 5 in forthcoming book.

Siddiqui, Rizwana and Abdur-Razzaque, Kemal. 2006. “Remittances, Trade

Liberalization, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in

Poverty Change Analysis.” The Pakistan Development Review, 45(3).

Siddiqui, Rizwana, Abdur-Razzaque, Kemal, Rehana Siddiqui, Veronique Robichaud,

and Mohammad Ali Kemal. 2006. “Trade Liberalization, Fiscal Adjustment, and

Poverty in Pakistan: A CGE Based Analyses.” Unpublished paper, MIMAP-

PhaseII, IDRC-Canada,

Eachenique Marcial and Marco Ponti (2005) Transport Investment and Economic

Assessment, University of Cambridge Department of Architecture, EPRSC,

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U.S.A. http://www.worldbank.ord/ieg.



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Appendix I. Figure 1: The impact of congestion Z and infrastructure K Infrastructure

in a CGE framework

Input Structure by Industry Final Demand

Petroleum

Other materialIntermediate price dependent demand

TR 1(land)

TR 2(air)

TR TR 3(water)

TR 4(other transport)

TR E(Transport equipment)

=KT(KTe, K infrastructure).Zε

Cost of Transportation as input

Government

Private Households

KT+1

Externalities*

a. Congestion (associated with

time input in transportation

of goods and services from

one place to other)

b. Pollution

c. Accidentsd. Time

a. Congestion affects the cost of production and the level and structure of

transportation input.

Due to limited provision of infrastructure, congestion leads to firm’s higher

stock of transportation capital. Investment in infrastructure lead to less

transportation capital to distribute out put (but it reduces the life of capital

goods)

b. A large number of transport capital on the road lead to larger air pollution.

This cost accrues largely because of low investment in signs and driving

skills and this can only be reduced by improved management.

Tax per KM Payment to government

KT0

K

L

Capital used in transport

Capital without transportation capital

Labor

KTe+1

Effective transportation capital services KTe depending on

Congestion Z by KTe = KT.Z εΚΤe ,Ζ where εΚΤ

e,Ζ < 0

Source: Conrad and Heng, 2006



Appendix II

Table 1: Effects of Tax Financed Public Investment to develop Transport services

Consumer Prices

Exports of Goods and Services

Imports of Goods of Services

Value Added Labor Demand

Variables shortRun

LongRun

ShortRun

LongRun

ShortRun

LongRun

ShortRun

LongRun

Shortrun

LongRun

Agriculture 0.00 -3.70 -0.23 3.60 0.42 -8.61 -1.3 0.01 0.0 -1.71

Mining -0.88 1.89 -1.11 12.57 -1.56 8.45 15.7 -1.69 -1.7 15.35

Foodmanufactured

-0.92 2.03 0.13 -0.91 -0.03 -3.94 -2.2 0.11 0.1 -2.59

Text andleather

0.00 3.91 0.55 -2.17 -0.32 -1.58 -2.5 0.42 0.4 -2.86

Wood 0.00 0.75 0.00 3.58 0.21 -0.55 3.1 0.09 0.1 2.73

Cement 0.00 -3.57 -0.12 10.96 -0.28 -0.78 11.4 0.20 0.2 10.93

Petroleum 0.00 3.80 -0.14 9.24 0.36 6.95 -2.7 -0.07 0.0 -3.60

TransportEquipment

0.00 1.40 -0.01 2.11 0.14 0.46 12.5 0.06 0.1 12.19

Other manufactured

0.00 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.1 0.05 0.1 1.72

Land-construction

-1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.5 0.35 0.4 15.23

Air-construction

-1.01 -1.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.6 0.34 0.4 16.44

Water-construction

0.00 -1.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.3 0.20 0.2 16.14

Other-construction

0.00 -3.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.4 0.08 0.1 11.20

Transport-Land

0.00 -3.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.0 -0.06 0.0 -3.42

Transport-Air 0.94 -1.26 -1.45 0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.6 -1.30 -1.3 -0.88

Transport-Water

1.03 -13.16 -0.74 15.00 0.00 0.00 14.1 -0.71 -0.7 13.91

Transport-other

1.02 -5.30 -0.34 5.32 0.00 0.00 -1.2 -0.07 0.0 -1.75

Other services

1.02 -3.94 0.00 0.00 0.56 -10.94 -0.6 -0.06 0.0 -0.92

Total 0.00 -0.75 0.11 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00

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