Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar TechnologiesRevitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies

1

The SunShot Team

The The Energy LandscapeEnergy LandscapeWasted energy~55% !!

Units: US quads/yearTotal US Consumption ~ 100 Quads

Impacting the Energy LandscapeImpacting the Energy Landscape

Fundamental Premise for SunShotSunShot…

Subsidy-free solar electricity Subsidy free solar electricity

75% cost reduction by end of the decade

5-6c/kWh at utility-scale

Global CompetitivenessGlobal Competitiveness

4

SunShot Program Structure

Photovoltaics (PV) Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -

DOESunShot

DOESunShot

Soft BOSSystems Integration

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Centralized Generation

- large users or utilities -

5

SunShot Management StructureManagement Team

Horwitz, Bessel, Le, Ram, Lynn, Pitchumani, Prasher, Sekaric,

Advisory BoardBrinkman, Majumdar,SunShot Fellows Tronstein, Connelly, & Ramesh

Team

Brinkman, Majumdar, Danielson & ERAC

S k h ld

SunShot FellowsSETAA’s

Feds

SunShot Technology Roadmap

Team Effort

StakeholdersIndustry, National Labs,Academia

Listening

Power Electronics & Systems

Roadmap

Balanceof System

Converter Technology

Integrationof System

6

(Module, CSP, CPV)

Adam Katherine Lenny Diogenes Aimee Alex

The SunShot Fellows

CohenPhD, Maryland

physics

CrowleyPhD, Rice

math

TinkerPhD, Princeton

chemistry

PlacenciaPhD, Arizona

chemistry

BaileyPhD, Imperial

physics

PolizzottiBS, Pomona

chemistry

7

Pathway to SunShot – Residential PV$5 71/W

$5

$6

DC

)

Power ElectronicsBOS HardwareBOS Non-HardwareM d l

$0.42$0.46 $0.30

$0 27

$5.71/W

$4

$5

ice

($/W

D Module$

$2.69

$0.27

$3

yste

m P

r

$2.04

$0 59

$1

$2

nsta

lled

S

$2.15

$0.59

$1.02$0.12$0.19

$1.50/W

$0

$1 In $0.65

$0.54

8

System Price2010

Power Electronics

Cost Reductions

BOS Hardware Soft BOS

Module Efficiency Improvements

Module Manufacturing

SunShot Target

Utility PV – 2011 Reductions

$0 85

$0.16

$0.36

$0.01 $0.29

$3.80/W$4

C)

Power ElectronicsBOS HardwareBOS Non-Hardware$0.85

$1.20

$

$0.19

$3

e ($

/WD

C

BOS Non HardwareModule

$2.79/W$0.18

$0.82

$0 28

$2

yste

m P

rice

$1.95

$0 22 $0.18

$0.10

$0.28 $0.32 $1.00/W

$1

Inst

alle

d Sy

$0.50

$0.22

$0 SunShot

9Cost Reductions

SunShot Target

SunShot Funding Philosophy : CSP

21¢ / kWh

25¢

Thermal StorageReceiver/Heat Transfer

3¢

5¢7¢

15¢

20¢ Receiver/Heat TransferPower PlantSolar Field

kWh)

MURI HOT FluidsCSP SunShot FOA

ARPA-E

4¢

3¢2¢

2¢10¢

15¢

CO

E (

¢/k

Baseload FOAThermal Storage

9¢21¢1¢

4¢ 6¢ / kWh5¢

LC

2¢2¢

¢System Price Solar Power Receiver/ Thermal SunShot

10

y2010 Field Plant Heat Transfer Storage Target

Cost Reductions

FY 2012 Funding by Recipient

Government or Other

Large Business25%

Non-Profit11%

25%

Small Business19%

N ti l National Laboratory

26%

Public & Private Universities

19%

11

Phase Transition in the Industry

$400

$450

$500

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$250

$300

$350

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50 $ per kg (nomnom

inal)

$100

$150

$200

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

minal)

$/ W

att (

n

First Solar (left axis)China c-Si (left axis)E.U./U.S./Japan c-Si (left axis)Poly. Cells (left axis)

$0

$50

$0.00

$0.50

Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11Q2 '11Q3'11*

Poly. Wafers (left axis)Polysilicon Spot (right axis)

*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: Estimated Global Module Price: Lazard (11.04.08). Actual Module Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11 & 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11)

Actual Module ASP vs. Analyst Estimates

$4.00

$5.00 China c-SiEstimates Made in 2008Estimates Made in 2009Estimates Made in 2010E i M d i 2011

Divergence between analysts estimates and China module prices

$3.00

inal

)

Estimates Made in 2011

$1 00

$2.00

/ Wat

t (n

omi

$0.00

$1.00

'08

'08

'08

'08

'09

'09

'09

'09

'10

'10

'10

'10

'11

'11

11*

'11

$/

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3'

Q4

In Q1 2009, independent industry analysts were expecting PV module prices to remain strong and above $2/W into 2011

*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: : For 2007-2011 Actual Module Selling Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11). For Analyst Estimates 2008-10: analyst reports, Barclays (5/1/09,11/15/10); Deutsche Bank (5/27/08, 1/23/09, 5/6/10, 1/5/11); Lazard (11/4/08, 4/2/09); Stifel Nicolaus(10/6/09, 4/8/10); UBS(8/22/10, 3/8/11)

Chinese made PV modules are now selling as low as $1.15/W

Barriers-based investments:Cell and module efficiency

$Watt

Manufacturing CostEfficiency JSC VOC FF

60%

70% Theoretical Maximum

43%

63%

40%

50%

ncy

Laboratory Record (cell)

Typical Production (Module)43%

25%20%

29% 29% 29% 29%20%

30%

Efficie Typical Production (Module)

31%18% 15% 13% 12% 10%

2%

20% 20% 17%12%

8%

20%14%

0%

10%

20%

14

0%CPV (3J) c‐Si mc‐Si CIGS CdTe a‐Si OPV

Significant role for Basic Science

• Reaching theoretical efficiencies : CdTe, CIGS• Plasmonics• Intermediate Bandgap Solar Cells• Quantum Dots and NanowiresQuantum Dots and Nanowires• Organic PV : Model Experiments• Earth abundant oxides and sulfides

CE

• Photons to Thermochemical Storage• Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit

Advanced light trapping RFO

RM

AN

C

• Advanced light trapping• Biomimetic PV concepts• Novel approaches for charge splitting

PE

15

pp g p g• HT Thermal/physical/chemical properties of

salts, fluids

TIME

Overcoming Fundamental Barriers : CdTe, CIGS, CZTSCdTe, CIGS, CZTS

CdTGaAs 

(thi fil

Parameter

CdTe (poly on glass)

(thin film single‐crystal)

Eg at 302 K (eV) 1.49 1.43

Voc (V) 0.85 1.11oc ( )FF (%) 75 85.9

Jsc (mA/cm2) 26 29.4sc ( / )Efficiency (%) 17 28

Source: Solar Cell Efficiency tables (version 38), P i PV 2011 l 19 565 72

16

Prog. in PV, 2011, vol. 19, pp. 565-72

Enabling “Quantum Leaps” in Technology through Science

Materials Growth

‐ Bulk crystal ‐ Thin film epitaxial‐ Thin film with controlled GBs

f iGrowth ‐ Surface Science‐ Interface control

25% cell demonstration by 

2015

Probe‐materials & electro‐optics

Integration

‐ Point defects‐ s, SFs, GBs, etc.‐ Interfaces

Bandgap and defect energies Models &

‐ Device process‐ Device test‐ Efficiency demonstration 

proof of concept‐ Bandgap and defect energies Models & calculations

‐ Ab‐initioD i 3d d l

proof of concept

‐ Device 3d models

Solicitation to come out soon…

BRIDGE – Bridging Research Interactions through Collaborative Development Grants in Energy

Goal: Establish process to usher basic science p

developed within BES/NSF into applied technologies program within EERE Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP).

Sources of Basic Energy Research:– Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and

Biosciences (CSGB - BES)– Materials Science and Engineering

(MSE - BES)(MSE BES)– Scientific User Facilities (SUF - BES)– Materials Research (DMR - NSF)

Ch i t (CHE NSF)– Chemistry (CHE - NSF)

PV Variability : A Fundamental Problem20 MW PV Plant in NV–20 MW PV Plant in NV

StStorageForecasting

Examples of Current Storage Technologies

A. Mills, et al,” IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 33-41, 2011.

Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage : A Game Changer

Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage

Current batteries : ~300-500$/kWh : Can we go to 20-30 $/kWh ??g $ Huge potential for Impact Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry,

materials discovery, understanding redoxchemistrychemistry… Interface science : on a beam line, in a electron

i microscope, … Photochemical, Thermochemical approaches Solicitations will come.. Waiting for Hub to be

finalized

Photochemical and Thermochemical Storage

Explore reversible, controllable phase transformations using sunlight …

• Capture Solar or Thermal • Release Energy intoCapture Solar or Thermal Energy

• Store in Chemical/Structural/ Electronic/ Phase Trans

Release Energy into Electrical/Magnetic /Thermal Cycle

• Return to Original StateElectronic/ Phase Trans

• Other approaches

Return to Original State

• Solid state systems

Strategy for Recent and Future CSP FOAs

MURI: HOT Fluids FOAObjective

1. Development of HTF for operation at > 800˚C2 Li id f 0 1300˚C

Funding Opportunity Details Motivation

Enable thermodynamic cycles with ≥50%2. Liquidus range of 0 – 1300˚C3. Other thermophysical properties ≥ solar salt

- Enable thermodynamic cycles with ≥50% net thermal to electric conversion

- FOA targets are large improvements overexisting technology and difficult to achieve

- A multi-disciplinary, multi-university, MURIp y, y,format is being used to address the challenges

Up to $10M total DOE funding over 5 yearsR l b J 2012 (A d b A t Release by Jan. 2012 (Awards by August

2012) Encourage involvement of young CSP

scientists Bring together non-engineering disciplinesBring together non engineering disciplines

to address the problems

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From Science to Technology to Productization

26

SunShot IncubatorDOE funding as Catalyst for Private Investment

$2,000 Follow on Private Investment

$1,600

$800

$1,200

Mill

ions

$17 5M DOE

$400

$800 $17.5M DOE Investment

$-

$400

-12 0 12 24 36 48

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2012) 27

Months after Incubator Funding

US excels at Innovation – But lags in manufacturing of innovation

Debt Finance in Solar (2010)

US

Debt Finance in Solar (2010)

VC & PE Investment in Solar (2010)

US9%

US

ROW24% Rest of

World76% 91%

$2.3B

28Source: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11)$44B

Manufacturing

“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry”tomorrow s emerging industry.

- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel

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Our Sputnik Moment

14

1650%

PV Mre

1995: 43%

10

1240%

Module ShipmM

arke

t Sha

r

2000 27%

8

10

20%

30%

ROW

ments (M

W)

U.S

. 2000: 27%

4

6

10%

20% China & TaiwanEuropeJapanU.S. 2011: 4%

0

2

0%

10%U.S. Share

30

00%1990 2000 2010*

Sources: PV News (2/1993, 3/2001, 3/2006) and Navigant Consulting (2/2011)

PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMI)

Part ISolving pre competitive problems

Part IIDeveloping unique innovativeSolving pre‐competitive problems 

common across industry (at pilot line manufacturing R&D)

Developing unique,  innovative domestic manufacturing processes

(manufacturing at scale)

3 University and Industry Consortia Up to $125M over 5 years 3 to 1 cost leveraging

Up to $50M over 2 years Minimum 3 to 1 cost leveraging

3 to 1 cost leveraging Tools, materials, processes integration

Regional Test Centers : Facilitating Bankability

Vision:– 50kW –2 MW systems for 3 years– Test in multiple climates

V lid f d li bili– Validate performance and reliability

Locations: Albuquerque (Sandia)– Albuquerque (Sandia)

– Denver (SolarTAC – NREL)– Orlando (UCF – FSEC)

Soft Cost : The Critical Issue

“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solarpay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system.”

- Secretary ChuSecretary Chu

BOS-Soft Costs Will Determine the Future of Solar!!

~$6.50 $7 2010 PV System Prices

BOS-non-hardwareBOS-hardwareP l

~$5.50

$5

$6

$/W

DC)

Power electronicsModule

Permitting, Inspection ~$4.00

$3

$4

m P

rice

($ g, p

and Interconnection

Customer Acquisition

$2

$3

PV

Sys

tem Customer Acquisition

Installation

$0

$1

P

Financing

34

Residential Commercial Utility

More Paperwork = Higher Cost

35

Rooftop Solar Challenge

CA NJThe Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV

permitting requirements =permitting requirements• 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection

standards and net metering programs• 50 states developing interconnection

CA WI

≠

Uniform processesstandards and net metering rules

The Solution ≠The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500 000+ population)

≠across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.

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La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA

Plug-and-PlayVision : PV as an ApplianceVision : PV as an Appliance

No permitting Easy installation Seamless grid integration

Future (Smart) Home Future (Smart) Grid Future (Smart) City

Utility Control Center

• Smart outlet• Smart circuit• Smart breaker panel• Smart appliances

• Distributed generation• Two-way power flow• Communication and

controlRi h i f ti

• Integrated grid and city planning

37

pp• Home area network (HAN) • Rich energy information

and transactions• Microgrid

$2/W SunShot Residential Prize

In Germany, residential PV systems are sold at ~$2.44/Wy, y $ RFI on the street that asks the question “Can we have

residential PV systems at $2/W?” At the scale of about 1000 homes (~5MW), demonstrate that

$2/W (no incentives) can be achieved– Grid parity at average US residential ratesGrid parity at average US residential rates– Local, state, utility processes would need to be streamlined– Installation would need to be streamlined

$5M P i fi hi hi $5M Prize to first team to achieve this– $3M Prize to second team/region– $2M Prize to third team/region

38

g

38

Ad Lucem Basic R&D for Market Transformation Pathways

Workshop: Feb 17 2012 Berkeley CA

Overview

Workshop: Feb. 17, 2012, Berkeley, CA

RECOMMENDATION 4 4: DOE along with NSF should• Basic R&D incorporating the human

aspect of our energy challenges can spur social, economic, and behavioral

RECOMMENDATION 4-4: DOE, along with NSF, should initiate a multidisciplinary social science research program to examine the U.S. energy technology spur social, economic, and behavioral

innovation • Tools from complexity science allows us

to probe such issues

innovation ecosystem, including its actors, functions, processes, and outcomes. This research should be fully integrated into DOE’s energy research and applied

Potential Research Topics

u y teg ated to O s e e gy esea c a d app edprograms.

• Information and technology diffusion on social networks• Mechanisms underlying the rate of technological progress• Characterizing spatiotemporal adoption patterns• Effective and efficient communication strategies

39

g• Strengthening feedback processes between adopters and innovators

The spread of obesity in a large social network N. A. Christakis et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 357 (2007)

Creating a New Solar Eco-System : Hubs

• ~$125M over 5 years• Strengthen U.S. PV manufacturing & supply chain• East coast: Sematech/CNSE

40• West coast: SVTC, Stanford/Berkeley

GEARED - Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deploymentgy p y

Problem: Electric Grid workforce is aging – mass g g

retirements in 5-15 years Lack of skilled personnel conflicts with need

for a new “smart grid”g Center for Energy Workforce Development

estimates the need for 92,000 new grid workers, including ~18,000 engineers, g , g

Goal: Establish University programs to train a

network of grid engineering STEM professionals , ready for a 21st century

bl

41

renewable economy

SunShot Funding Philosophy : PV$5 71/W

Low Cost Power ElectronicsSolar ADEPT (ARPA-E)$5

$6

WD

C)

$0.30$0 27

$5.71/W$0.42$0.46

Reducing BOS Hardware CostsHigh Penetration PV

Reducing Soft CostsRooftop Solar ChallengePV Made in the USAImproving PV EfficiencySolar A PT (ARPA )

SEGIS-ACSunShot Incubator

$4

$5

rice

($/

W $0.27$

$2.69

High Penetration PVBOS-X (Extreme BOS)

SEGIS-AC

Rooftop Solar ChallengeBOS – Software

Plug and PlayInstructor Training Network

S l F i

PV Made in the USAPV Manufacturing Initiative

SUNPATH PV Supply Chain

Improving PV EfficiencyNext-Gen PV

F-PACEBRIDGE

$3

Syst

em P

$2.04

$0 59

Solar ForecastingIncubator for Soft Costs

SunShot Prize: $2/Wmore to come…

PV Supply ChainRegional Testing Centers

SunShot IncubatorSunShot Incubator

$1

$2

Inst

alle

d S $0.59

$1.02

$1.50/W$2.15

$0.12$0.19

$0

$1 $0.65

$0.54

42

System Price2010

Power Electronics

Cost Reductions

BOS Hardware Soft BOS

Efficiency Improvements

Module Manufacturing

SunShot Target

A i h th t it t l d th ld America has the opportunity to lead the world in clean energy technologies and provide a

foundation for our future prosperity.

We remain the most innovative country in the world ... but “Invented in America” is not

d hgood enough to guarantee our prosperity.

“Invented in America, Made in America,Sold World-wide”

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