REVISITING CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES

Komal Raj Aryal, PhDResearcher (Local Disaster Risk and Humanitarian Governance)

Newcastle upon Tyne , UK

CONTENTS

1. Introducing Nepal from geological hazards perspective.

2. Frequent landslide incident locations (1900-2005) and recent earthquake epicentres in Nepal.

3. The 2015 Nepal Gorkha twin earthquakes.

4. Cascading effects of the 2015 Nepal Gorkha twin earthquakes.

5. Root causes of cascading effects from a major disaster incident in Nepal.

6. My expertise

Source: Dahal and Tuladhar 2015

1. INTRODUCING NEPAL FROM GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE

1. INTRODUCING NEPAL FROM GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE

1 2

2

1

Source: Dahal,2015

HUGE DIFFERENCE OF ELEVATION IN SHORT DISTANCE

SOUTH IS LESS ELEVATEDNORTH IS HIGHLY ELEVATED

India

EXTREME RELIEF - HIGH RISK FOR WATER-INDUCED DISASTERS

Topographic variation

1. INTRODUCING NEPAL FROM GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE

Aryal, K.R. (2012) Getting down to local level: exploring vulnerability to improve disaster management systems in Nepal. Doctoral thesis, Northumbria University.

1. INTRODUCING NEPAL FROM GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE

25th April 2015 (7.8)

21th August 1988 (6.9)

12th May 2015 (7.3)

18th Sep.2011 (6.9)

1.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-346379082.Aryal (2012) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13753-012-0015-1#page-1

1

2 29th July 1980 (6.1)

2. FREQUENT LANDSLIDE INCIDENT LOCATIONS (1900-2005) AND RECENT EARTHQUAKE EPICENTRES IN NEPAL

CHINA

INDIA

INDIA

INDIA

FIRST 2

4 H

OU

RS

24-48 HOURS

4

8

+

H

O

U

R

S

3. THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES

At 11:56:15 on 25th April, 2015 ( Local Time )

FROM 48 HOURS – 2 MONTHS

3. T

HE

2015 N

EP

AL

GO

RK

HA

TW

IN E

AR

TH

QU

AK

ES

LANDSLIDES

Land Cracks &

Liquefaction

TEMPORARY SHELTERS IN FOREST

Depletion of natural water resources

Drinking water infrastructure damage

Migration to nearest urban area

Damages to roads, bridges and hydropower

stations

River blockage

4. CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)

Artificial lakescreation

Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of rats

Depletion of natural resources

Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )

Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work

Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,

increased crimes and mental health problem)

ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION

SOCIAL & FINANCIAL

LOSSES

FLOODS

FOREST FIRES

DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish

2015 Nepal

EQ

NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *

INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO

FUTURE CRISIS

Damage to heritage sites

* Expected for FY 2016-17

LANDSLIDES

Land Cracks &

Liquefaction

TEMPORARY SHELTERS IN FOREST

Depletion of Natural water resources

Drinking water infrastructure damage

Migration to nearest urban area

Damages to roads , Bridges and Hydropower

stations

River blockages

4. CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)

Artificial lakescreation

Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of

rats Depletion of natural

resources

Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )

Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work

Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,

increased crimes and mental health problem)

ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION

SOCIAL & FINANCIAL

LOSSES

FLOODS

FOREST FIRES

DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish

2015 Nepal

EQ

NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *

INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO

FUTURE CRISIS

Damage Heritages Sites

LOSS OF VEGETATION

ROCK SPARKING

* Expected for FY 2016-17

HEAVY RAIN

1. Landslides

2. Rock Sparking

3. Forest Fire

4. Loss of Vegetation

IMMEDIATELY AFTER MAJOR EARTHQUAKE or LANDSLIDES EVENTS

IN THE LONG RUN-BASED ON LOCALISED PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATIONClimate Change ???Environmental change??

EQ OR RAINFALL INDUCED

Loss of lives and

properties

Informal settlements to nearest

forest

Migrationto

nearest urban areas

with multiple risks and

hazards

Urban pressure

Disease Outbreaks

4. CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES – SPIRALLING LOOP TO INCREASE POVERTY IN THE HIMALAYAS

(observation as of 31th June, 2016)

When disasters strike in countries with weak local risk governance infrastructure, the local and national economy are heavily impacted which affects the sustainable development process . Examples:

20 % of population affected by flood in

September, 2010

2013- early 2014 Migratory birds attacks ( Quelea) and the country

highly exposed to Ebola outbreaks.

Source: Kathmandu Post Daily, 27 May, 2016

THE GAMBIA NEPAL

4. CASCADING EFFECTS OF DISASTERS IN ECOLOGICALLY FRAGILE COUNTRIES

DR

M Po

licy Evolu

tion

D

isaster Incid

en

ts

INTERNATIONAL DRR INICIATIVES

5. Why cascading effects occurred in Nepal ? ANALYSIS THROUGH REVISITING HISTORICAL DISASTER INCIDENTS AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND ACT

EVOLUTION IN NEPAL (1900-2015)

National Building Code 1994 IntroducedNot mandatory ?

5. ROOT CAUSES OF CASCADING EFFECTS FROM A MAJOR DISASTER INCIDENT IN NEPAL

• Policy documents prepared to satisfy administrative responsibilities AFTER disaster events.• Too many policies, strategies and guidelines but NOT mandatory National Disaster Management Act to strengthen people

centred disaster risk governance system in Nepal.• Majority of disaster risk management activities are PROJECTS BASED and “segmented nature” NOT (governance) PROCESS

BASED. • Government agencies’ incapability to spend available financial resources for disaster risk reduction and management.• Presence of limited number of national and international disaster risk governance specialists in Nepal -who have thorough

understanding of evolution of local risks, hazards and disaster vulnerability in the Himalayas.• Absence of health and safety regulations.• Absence of local safety and disasters based studies in school, university and administrative college curriculums.

Engineers/ academicsdevelop modelling

International and national organisations develops strategies, policies and plan

Senior political leaders and administrators

Building local disaster resilient communities and nations for sustainable development and economic prosperity

6. MY EXPERTISE- LOCAL DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION FOR BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

Engineers/ academicsdevelop modelling

International and national organisations develops strategies, policies and plan.

Senior political leaders and administrators

Local disaster resilient communities and nations for sustainable development and economic prosperity.

Higher

Senior

Middle

Junior / Early Career

6. MY EXPERTISE- LOCAL DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION FOR BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

Vac

uu

m

KEY EXPERTISE : LOCAL DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE Participatory risk based modelling communication to various layers of project implementing sectors including

communities groups “bridging the gaps between science and society”. Vulnerability assessment and emerging local hazard and risk identification and mapping / hazard and risk zoning Effective humanitarian response to reduce cascading effects of disasters. Knowledge exchange, networking and partnership development.

Engineers/ academicsdevelop modelling

International and national organisations develops strategies, policies and plan.

Senior political leaders and administrators

Local disaster resilient communities and nations for sustainable development and economic prosperity.

Higher

Senior

Middle

Junior / Early Career

6. MY EXPERTISE- LOCAL DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION FOR BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

Vac

uu

m

KEY EXPERTISE : LOCAL DISASTER RISK GOVERNANCE Participatory risk based modelling communication to various layers of project implementing sectors including

communities groups “bridging the gaps between science and society”. Vulnerability assessment and emerging local hazard and risk identification and mapping / hazard and risk zoning Effective humanitarian response to reduce cascading effects of disasters. Knowledge exchange, networking and partnership development.

THEORY GENERATION AND INNOVATION IMPLEMENTATION SCIENCE (TECHNOLOGY, PEOPLE, CULTURE, GEOLOCATION)

FACTORS: AGE DIFFERENCE, EXPOSURE ,KNOWLEDGE & EDUCATION

LET’S WORK TOGETHER TO AVOID THIS KIND OF SITUATION FOR PEOPLE AFFECTED BY DISASTER AROUND THE WORLD,

PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENT

THANK YOU !

EMERGENCY SHELTERS FOR THE 2015 NEPAL EARTHQUAKES AFFECTED PEOPLE AT BHAKTAPUR CITY, NEPAL. SEPTEMBER, 2015Photo Courtesy: Rabin Lakhemaru

Jones, S., Oven, K., Manyena, B. and Aryal, K. (2014) Governance struggles and policy processes in disaster riskreduction: A case study from Nepal. Geoforum, 57, pp.78-90.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718514001687Aryal, K.R. (2014) Disaster Vulnerability in Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 9, pp.137-146.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091400048XJones, S., Aryal, K. and Collins, A. (2013) Local-level governance of risk and resilience in Nepal. Disasters, 37 (3), pp.442-467.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12006/abstract

Aryal, K. R. (2012) History of disaster incidents and impact in Nepal 1900-2005. International Journal of Disaster Risk

Science, 3 (3) pp. 147-154.ISSN 2095-0095.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13753-012-0015-1#page-1

Aryal, K.R. (2012) Asia-Pacific fighting climate change. In: Earth in Danger: Toward A New Planet, Korean Institute of

Public Administration (KIPA).pp.39-44. ISBN: 978-89-5704-431-5 93530

(http://www.kipa.re.kr/language/english/voice2/article6.mp3)

Aryal, K.R. and Dobson, O. (2011) A case study from the National Disaster Management Institute in the Republic of Korea.

The Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 26 (4). pp. 34-42. ISSN 1324-1540.

http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=742127907201073;res=IELHSS

KEY PUBLICATIONS:

Elliott, S., Utas, C., Turot, O., Poncin, A., Andrew, P., Aryal, K., Burja, K., Shrestha, P., KC, A., Sun,Y., Ying, Z., Vikman, E.,

Zambeaux, R., Jovanovic, V., Mooney, E., Kuttiparambil, G., Pettersson, Z., Contla, X. and Elien, R. (2015) Nepal Earthquake

Response: Joint Assessment of Food Security, Livelihoods and Early Recovery. Government of Nepal, National Planning

Commission, UNOCHA, UNDP, FAO, WFP, NRCS, REACH, Protection Cluster Nepal, NeCSAP) Nepal Food Security Monitoring

System and Food Security Cluster, Kathmandu, Nepal.

http://fscluster.org/sites/default/files/documents/nepal_report_joint_assessment_of_food_security_livelihoods_and_ea

rly_recovery_2015_13-jan-16.pdf

Aryal, K.R, Walls, R. and Tamba, L. S. (2014) Strengthening Local Risk Governance: Local Hazard and Risk Zoning Exercise in

The Gambia- 2014. National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),

Banjul, The Gambia, West Africa. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/publications/v.php?id=40203

Aryal, K.R. and Gadema, Z. (2008) Climate change and disaster impact reduction. Disaster and Development Centre,

Northumbria University, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne. ISBN 9781861353610.

http://www.preventionweb.net/files/7591_CLIMATECHANGEANDDISASTERIMPACTREDUCTION1.pdf

Aryal, K.R., Trotter, K. Metlon, E. (2012) Mutual Alliances for Local Emergency Response: a case study from Nepal and Brazil. In: UKFRS International Development and Humanitarian Aid Conference, Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, 10 October, 2012. Manchester, UK.http://core.kmi.open.ac.uk/download/pdf/9587389.pdf

BBC documentary https://lnkd.in/diXYYqy

http://www.newspostleader.co.uk/news/local/school-welcomes-japanese-visitors-in-to-the-region-1-1618239

http://www.ukro.org/News-Stories/General/Experts-to-Japan

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/local-news/tyne-wear-firefighters-help-out-1372213http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/printedition/news/2012-09-04/role-of-kathmandu-fire-brigade-goes-unnoticed.html

PRESENCE IN MEDIA