ISQS 6339, Business Intelligence Supplemental Notes on the Term Project
Review for Final in ISQS 3344 Final will take place: Tuesday, July 2, 2015, 7:30 am, this room.
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Transcript of Review for Final in ISQS 3344 Final will take place: Tuesday, July 2, 2015, 7:30 am, this room.
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Review for Final in ISQS Review for Final in ISQS 33443344
Final will take place:Final will take place:
Tuesday, July 2, 2015, Tuesday, July 2, 2015,
7:30 am, this room7:30 am, this room
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FormatFormat
100-150 multiple choice worth 100%100-150 multiple choice worth 100%• 30-50 of these are from previous 30-50 of these are from previous
segments of the coursesegments of the course
exam is closed exam is closed notes/closed booknotes/closed book
Exam will be Exam will be comprehensivecomprehensive
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BringBring
PencilsPencils CalculatorCalculator Orange Scantron sheetOrange Scantron sheet
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This exam will emphasize:This exam will emphasize:
What we have covered since the What we have covered since the second exam:second exam:• Forecasting, Chapter 12Forecasting, Chapter 12• Sales and Operations Planning, Sales and Operations Planning,
Chapter 14Chapter 14• JIT and Lean Production, Chapter 16JIT and Lean Production, Chapter 16• Project Management, Chapter 9Project Management, Chapter 9
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OVERALL ContentOVERALL Content We have covered Chapters We have covered Chapters
1,2,3,4,5, 6,9,10,11,11s, 1,2,3,4,5, 6,9,10,11,11s, 12,13,14,14s, 15 (ERP), and 1612,13,14,14s, 15 (ERP), and 16
3/4ths of the test material will 3/4ths of the test material will come from the last third of the come from the last third of the course—course—
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QuestionsQuestions
Name five characteristics of a projectName five characteristics of a project Successful project management entails Successful project management entails
what exactlywhat exactly Name five phases of the project lifecycleName five phases of the project lifecycle
• Show their sequenceShow their sequence Why is project management importantWhy is project management important Name four core knowledge areasName four core knowledge areas Name five facilitating knowledge areasName five facilitating knowledge areas
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More questionsMore questions
What is the tenth knowledge area and What is the tenth knowledge area and what is its purposewhat is its purpose
Name some things we do poorly in Name some things we do poorly in projectsprojects
What device or construct is often used to What device or construct is often used to initiate a project?initiate a project?
What is a lean production system? What What is a lean production system? What is its purpose? Who originated lean is its purpose? Who originated lean concepts? Name 8 lean constructs.concepts? Name 8 lean constructs.
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PMBOK – PMI’s Body of PMBOK – PMI’s Body of KnowledgeKnowledge
Four core knowledge areasFour core knowledge areas Scope, Time, Cost, QualityScope, Time, Cost, Quality Five Facilitating knowledge areasFive Facilitating knowledge areas Communications, Human Resources, Communications, Human Resources,
Risk, Procurememnt, StakeholderRisk, Procurememnt, Stakeholder One Integrating knowledge areaOne Integrating knowledge area Integration knowledge managementIntegration knowledge management
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Problems in Multiple Problems in Multiple ChoiceChoice
A FORECASTING PROBLEM LIKE 12-10A FORECASTING PROBLEM LIKE 12-10 An aggregate planning (S&OP) An aggregate planning (S&OP)
PROBLEM LIKE 14-6PROBLEM LIKE 14-6 AN INVENTORY PROBLEM LIKE 13-6AN INVENTORY PROBLEM LIKE 13-6 Construct an activity on node network Construct an activity on node network
chart from a table; Determine duration, chart from a table; Determine duration, ES, EF, LS, LF and mark the critical pathES, EF, LS, LF and mark the critical path
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FORECASTING--Two basic FORECASTING--Two basic categories of approachescategories of approaches
What are they??What are they??
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Smoothing EffectsSmoothing Effects
150 150 –
125 125 –
100 100 –
75 75 –
50 50 –
25 25 –
0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | |
JanJan FebFeb MarMar AprApr MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugAug SeptSept OctOct NovNov
ActualActual
Ord
ers
Ord
ers
MonthMonth
5-month5-month
3-month3-month
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Weighted Moving AverageWeighted Moving Average
WMAWMAnn = = ii = 1 = 1 WWii D Dii
wherewhere
WWii = the weight for period = the weight for period ii, ,
between 0 and 100 between 0 and 100 percentpercent
WWii = 1.00= 1.00
Adjusts Adjusts moving moving average average method to method to more closely more closely reflect data reflect data fluctuationsfluctuations
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Weighted Moving Average Weighted Moving Average ExampleExample
MONTH MONTH WEIGHT WEIGHT DATADATA
AugustAugust 17%17% 130130SeptemberSeptember 33%33% 110110OctoberOctober 50%50% 9090
WMAWMA33 = = 33
ii = 1 = 1 WWii D Dii
= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)
= 103.4 orders= 103.4 orders
November ForecastNovember Forecast
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Averaging method Averaging method Weights most recent data more stronglyWeights most recent data more strongly Reacts more to recent changesReacts more to recent changes Widely used, accurate methodWidely used, accurate method
Exponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing
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FFt t +1 +1 = = DDtt + (1 - + (1 - ))FFtt
where:where:
FFt t +1+1 = = forecast for next periodforecast for next period
DDtt == actual demand for present periodactual demand for present period
FFtt == previously determined forecast for previously determined forecast for
present periodpresent period
== weighting factor, smoothing constantweighting factor, smoothing constant
Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)
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Effect of Smoothing ConstantEffect of Smoothing Constant
0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
If If = 0.20, then = 0.20, then FFt t +1 +1 = 0.20= 0.20DDtt + 0.80 + 0.80 FFtt
If If = 0, then = 0, then FFtt +1 +1 = 0= 0DDtt + 1 + 1 FFtt 0 = 0 = FFtt
Forecast does not reflect recent dataForecast does not reflect recent data
If If = 1, then = 1, then FFt t +1 +1 = 1= 1DDtt + 0 + 0 FFtt ==DDtt Forecast based only on most recent dataForecast based only on most recent data
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FF22 = = DD11 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF11
= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
= 37= 37
FF33 = = DD22 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF22
= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
= 37.9= 37.9
FF1313 = = DD1212 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF1212
= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)
= 51.79= 51.79
Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing ((αα=0.30)=0.30)
PERIODPERIOD MONTHMONTHDEMANDDEMAND
11 JanJan 3737
22 FebFeb 4040
33 MarMar 4141
44 AprApr 3737
55 May May 4545
66 JunJun 5050
77 Jul Jul 4343
88 Aug Aug 4747
99 Sep Sep 5656
1010 OctOct 5252
1111 NovNov 5555
1212 Dec Dec 5454
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FORECAST, FORECAST, FFtt + 1 + 1
PERIODPERIOD MONTHMONTH DEMANDDEMAND (( = 0.3) = 0.3) (( = 0.5) = 0.5)
11 JanJan 3737 –– ––22 FebFeb 4040 37.0037.00 37.0037.0033 MarMar 4141 37.9037.90 38.5038.5044 AprApr 3737 38.8338.83 39.7539.7555 May May 4545 38.2838.28 38.3738.3766 JunJun 5050 40.2940.29 41.6841.6877 Jul Jul 4343 43.2043.20 45.8445.8488 Aug Aug 4747 43.1443.14 44.4244.4299 Sep Sep 5656 44.3044.30 45.7145.71
1010 OctOct 5252 47.8147.81 50.8550.851111 NovNov 5555 49.0649.06 51.4251.421212 Dec Dec 5454 50.8450.84 53.2153.211313 JanJan –– 51.7951.79 53.6153.61
Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)
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70 70 –
60 60 –
50 50 –
40 40 –
30 30 –
20 20 –
1010 –
0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313
ActualActual
Ord
ers
Ord
ers
MonthMonth
Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)
= 0.50= 0.50
= 0.30= 0.30
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Adjusted Exponential Adjusted Exponential Smoothing ForecastsSmoothing Forecasts
70 70 –
60 60 –
50 50 –
40 40 –
30 30 –
20 20 –
1010 –
0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313
ActualActual
Dem
and
Dem
and
PeriodPeriod
Forecast (Forecast ( = 0.50) = 0.50)
Adjusted forecast (Adjusted forecast ( = 0.30) = 0.30)
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yy = = aa + + bxbx
wherewherea a = intercept= interceptb b = slope of the line= slope of the linex x = time period= time periody y = forecast for = forecast for demand for period demand for period xx
Linear Trend LineLinear Trend Line
b =
a = y - b x
wheren = number of periods
x = = mean of the x values
y = = mean of the y values
xy - nxy
x2 - nx2
xn
yn
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Linear trend line y = 35.2 + 1.72x
Forecast for period 13 y = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 units
70 70 –
60 60 –
50 50 –
40 40 –
30 30 –
20 20 –
1010 –
0 0 –
| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313
ActualActual
Dem
and
Dem
and
PeriodPeriod
Linear trend lineLinear trend line
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Advantages of Linear Advantages of Linear Trend LineTrend Line
Very easy to do calculations in MS Very easy to do calculations in MS ExcelExcel
There is never any bias—consistently There is never any bias—consistently below or above the trendbelow or above the trend
Can forecast any number of periods Can forecast any number of periods out into the futureout into the future• Cannot do this with weighted moving Cannot do this with weighted moving
averages or with exponential smoothingaverages or with exponential smoothing
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Seasonal AdjustmentsSeasonal Adjustments
Repetitive increase/ decrease in demandRepetitive increase/ decrease in demand Use seasonal factor to adjust forecastUse seasonal factor to adjust forecast Is equal to the period demand divided by the Is equal to the period demand divided by the
demand for the whole yeardemand for the whole year
Seasonal factor = Seasonal factor = SSii = =DDii
DD
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Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)(cont.)
2002 12.62002 12.6 8.68.6 6.36.3 17.517.5 45.045.0
2003 14.12003 14.1 10.310.3 7.57.5 18.218.2 50.150.1
2004 15.32004 15.3 10.610.6 8.18.1 19.619.6 53.653.6
Total 42.0Total 42.0 29.529.5 21.921.9 55.355.3 148.7148.7
DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)
YEARYEAR 11 22 33 44 TotalTotal
SS11 = = = 0.28 = = = 0.28 DD11
DD
42.042.0148.7148.7
SS22 = = = 0.20 = = = 0.20 DD22
DD
29.529.5148.7148.7
SS44 = = = 0.37 = = = 0.37 DD44
DD
55.355.3148.7148.7
SS33 = = = 0.15 = = = 0.15 DD33
DD
21.921.9148.7148.7
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Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)
SFSF1 1 = (= (SS11) () (FF55) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28
SFSF2 2 = (= (SS22) () (FF55) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63
SFSF3 3 = (= (SS33) () (FF55) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73
SFSF4 4 = (= (SS44) () (FF55) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53
yy = 40.97 + 4.30= 40.97 + 4.30x x = 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17= 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17
For 2005For 2005
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Forecast AccuracyForecast Accuracy
Forecast errorForecast error• difference between forecast and actual difference between forecast and actual
demanddemand• MADMAD
– mean absolute deviationmean absolute deviation
• MAPDMAPD– mean absolute percent deviationmean absolute percent deviation
• Cumulative errorCumulative error• Average error or biasAverage error or bias
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Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)(MAD)
wherewhere tt = period number= period number
DDtt = demand in period = demand in period tt
FFtt = forecast for period = forecast for period tt
nn = total number of periods= total number of periods= absolute value= absolute value
DDtt - - FFtt nnMAD =MAD =
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MAD Example
11 3737 37.0037.00 –– ––22 4040 37.0037.00 3.003.00 3.003.0033 4141 37.9037.90 3.103.10 3.103.1044 3737 38.8338.83 -1.83-1.83 1.831.8355 4545 38.2838.28 6.726.72 6.726.7266 5050 40.2940.29 9.699.69 9.699.6977 4343 43.2043.20 -0.20-0.20 0.200.2088 4747 43.1443.14 3.863.86 3.863.8699 5656 44.3044.30 11.7011.70 11.7011.70
1010 5252 47.8147.81 4.194.19 4.194.191111 5555 49.0649.06 5.945.94 5.945.941212 5454 50.8450.84 3.153.15 3.153.15
557557 49.3149.31 53.3953.39
PERIODPERIOD DEMAND, DEMAND, DDtt FFtt ( ( =0.3) =0.3) ((DDtt - - FFtt)) | |DDtt - - FFtt||
Dt - Ft nMAD =
=
= 4.85
53.3911
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Other Accuracy MeasuresOther Accuracy Measures
Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)
MAPD =MAPD =|D|Dtt - F - Ftt||
DDtt
Cumulative errorCumulative error
E = E = eett
Average errorAverage error
E =E =eett
nn
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Comparison of Comparison of ForecastsForecasts
FORECASTFORECAST MADMAD MAPDMAPD EE ((EE))
Exponential smoothing (Exponential smoothing (= 0.30)= 0.30) 4.854.85 9.6%9.6% 49.3149.31 4.484.48
Exponential smoothing (Exponential smoothing (= 0.50)= 0.50) 4.044.04 8.5%8.5% 33.2133.21 3.023.02
Adjusted exponential smoothingAdjusted exponential smoothing 3.813.81 7.5%7.5% 21.1421.14 1.921.92
((= 0.50, = 0.50, = 0.30)= 0.30)
Linear trend lineLinear trend line 2.292.29 4.9%4.9% –– ––
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Inventory CostsInventory Costs
Carrying or holding costsCarrying or holding costs Ordering costsOrdering costs
Stockout (shortage) costsStockout (shortage) costs Back-ordering costsBack-ordering costs
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Annual Carrying costsAnnual Carrying costs
RentRent Lighting/heatingLighting/heating SecuritySecurity Interest (on borrowed capital tied up in Interest (on borrowed capital tied up in
inventory)inventory) TaxesTaxes Shrink/obsolescence/theftShrink/obsolescence/theft
Can also be expressed as a % of product costCan also be expressed as a % of product costA rule of thumb is 25%A rule of thumb is 25%
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Ordering costs—costs Ordering costs—costs related torelated to
TransportationTransportation
ShippingShipping
ReceivingReceiving
InspectionInspection
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Shortage costsShortage costs
This is an opportunity costThis is an opportunity cost Is ignored in the simple inventory Is ignored in the simple inventory
models, by assuming that there models, by assuming that there are no shortagesare no shortages
Consideration is given to shortages Consideration is given to shortages when we add safety stock to a when we add safety stock to a Reorder Point, R = d*L + safety Reorder Point, R = d*L + safety stockstock
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Back-order costs??Back-order costs??
Will assume impatient customers Will assume impatient customers who must have the product they who must have the product they wish to buy wish to buy NOWNOW..
So back-ordering is not considered So back-ordering is not considered in the simple models we looked atin the simple models we looked at
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Chapter 14 –S&OPChapter 14 –S&OP
S&OP – Sales and Operations S&OP – Sales and Operations PlanningPlanning
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
14-38
Sales and Operations Sales and Operations Planning – Chapter 14Planning – Chapter 14
Determines the resource capacity Determines the resource capacity needed to meet demand over an needed to meet demand over an intermediate time horizonintermediate time horizon• AggregateAggregate refers to sales and operations refers to sales and operations
planning for product lines or familiesplanning for product lines or families• Sales and Operations planning (S&OP)Sales and Operations planning (S&OP)
matches supply and demandmatches supply and demand ObjectivesObjectives
• Establish a company wide game plan for Establish a company wide game plan for allocating resourcesallocating resources
• Develop an economic strategy for meeting Develop an economic strategy for meeting demanddemand
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
14-39
Sales and Operations Sales and Operations Planning ProcessPlanning Process
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What are the inputs to the What are the inputs to the aggregate planning aggregate planning system??system??
Demand forecastsDemand forecasts Capacity constraintsCapacity constraints Strategic objectivesStrategic objectives Company policiesCompany policies Financial constraintsFinancial constraints NOT…NOT…
• Size of workforceSize of workforce• Inventory levelsInventory levels• Units subcontractedUnits subcontracted• Overtime scheduledOvertime scheduled
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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The Monthly S&OP Planning The Monthly S&OP Planning ProcessProcess
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Meeting Demand Meeting Demand StrategiesStrategies
Adjusting capacityAdjusting capacity• Resources necessary to meet Resources necessary to meet
demand are acquired and maintained demand are acquired and maintained over the time horizon of the planover the time horizon of the plan
• Minor variations in demand are Minor variations in demand are handled with overtime or under-timehandled with overtime or under-time
Managing demandManaging demand• Proactive demand managementProactive demand management
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Strategies for Adjusting Strategies for Adjusting CapacityCapacity
Level productionLevel production• Producing at a constant Producing at a constant
rate and using inventory rate and using inventory to absorb fluctuations in to absorb fluctuations in demanddemand
Chase demandChase demand• Hiring and firing workers Hiring and firing workers
to match demandto match demand Peak demandPeak demand
• Maintaining resources for Maintaining resources for high-demand levelshigh-demand levels
Overtime and under-timeOvertime and under-time• Increasing or decreasing Increasing or decreasing
working hoursworking hours SubcontractingSubcontracting
• Let outside companies Let outside companies complete the workcomplete the work
Part-time workersPart-time workers• Hiring part time workers to Hiring part time workers to
complete the workcomplete the work BackorderingBackordering
• Providing the service or Providing the service or product at a later time product at a later time periodperiod
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Strategies for Adjusting Strategies for Adjusting CapacityCapacity
Level productionLevel production• Producing at a constant Producing at a constant
rate and using inventory rate and using inventory to absorb fluctuations in to absorb fluctuations in demanddemand
Chase demandChase demand• Hiring and firing workers Hiring and firing workers
to match demandto match demand Peak demandPeak demand
• Maintaining resources for Maintaining resources for high-demand levelshigh-demand levels
Overtime and under-timeOvertime and under-time• Increasing or decreasing Increasing or decreasing
working hoursworking hours SubcontractingSubcontracting
• Let outside companies Let outside companies complete the workcomplete the work
Part-time workersPart-time workers• Hiring part time workers to Hiring part time workers to
complete the workcomplete the work BackorderingBackordering
• Providing the service or Providing the service or product at a later time product at a later time periodperiod
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Level ProductionLevel Production
DemandDemand
Un
its
Un
its
TimeTime
ProductionProduction
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Chase DemandChase Demand
DemandDemand
Un
its
Un
its
TimeTime
ProductionProduction
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-47
Strategies for Managing Strategies for Managing DemandDemand
Shifting demand into Shifting demand into other time periodsother time periods• IncentivesIncentives• Sales promotionsSales promotions• Advertising campaignsAdvertising campaigns
Offering products or Offering products or services with counter-services with counter-cyclical demand cyclical demand patternspatterns
Partnering with Partnering with suppliers to reduce suppliers to reduce information distortion information distortion along the supply chainalong the supply chain
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Quantitative Techniques For Quantitative Techniques For APAP
Pure StrategiesPure Strategies Mixed StrategiesMixed Strategies Linear ProgrammingLinear Programming Transportation Transportation
MethodMethod Other Quantitative Other Quantitative
TechniquesTechniques
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Pure StrategiesPure Strategies
Hiring costHiring cost = $100 per worker= $100 per workerFiring costFiring cost = $500 per worker= $500 per worker
Inventory carrying costInventory carrying cost = $0.50 pound per quarter= $0.50 pound per quarter Regular production cost per poundRegular production cost per pound = $2.00= $2.00 Production per employeeProduction per employee = 1,000 pounds per quarter= 1,000 pounds per quarter Beginning work forceBeginning work force = 100 workers= 100 workers
QUARTERQUARTER SALES FORECAST (LB)SALES FORECAST (LB)
SpringSpring 80,00080,000SummerSummer 50,00050,000FallFall 120,000120,000WinterWinter 150,000150,000
Example:Example:
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Level Production StrategyLevel Production StrategyLevel production
= 100,000 pounds(50,000 + 120,000 + 150,000 + 80,000)
4
Spring 80,000 100,000 20,000Summer 50,000 100,000 70,000Fall 120,000 100,000 50,000Winter 150,000 100,000 0
400,000 140,000Cost of Level Production Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (140,00 X $.50) = $870,000
SALES PRODUCTIONQUARTER FORECAST PLAN INVENTORY
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Chase Demand StrategyChase Demand Strategy
SpringSpring 80,00080,000 80,00080,000 8080 00 2020SummerSummer 50,00050,000 50,00050,000 5050 00 3030FallFall 120,000120,000 120,000120,000 120120 7070 00WinterWinter 150,000150,000 150,000150,000 150150 3030 00
100100 5050
SALESSALES PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION WORKERSWORKERS WORKERSWORKERS WORKERSWORKERSQUARTERQUARTER FORECASTFORECAST PLANPLAN NEEDEDNEEDED HIREDHIRED FIREDFIRED
Cost of Chase Demand StrategyCost of Chase Demand Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000 (400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000
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Chapter 9 – Project Chapter 9 – Project ManagementManagement
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Why has Project Why has Project Management become so Management become so in-vogue?in-vogue?
Diversity of new products and product markets
Shorter life span of products Rapid technological changes
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What are the major What are the major reasons for project failure?reasons for project failure?
Inadequate initiation, planningInadequate initiation, planning• Specifically, inadequate requirementsSpecifically, inadequate requirements
Absence of a planAbsence of a plan Estimates are not accurateEstimates are not accurate Unavailable resources when neededUnavailable resources when needed Scope and hope creepScope and hope creep Unresponsive contractors who Unresponsive contractors who
deliver their product latedeliver their product late
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What are the four phases What are the four phases of the project lifecycle?of the project lifecycle?
InitiatingInitiating PlanningPlanning ExecutingExecuting ClosingClosing
One other: Monitoring and ControlOne other: Monitoring and Control
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In which of these phases is In which of these phases is a WBS started?a WBS started?
PlanningPlanning• First 3 levelsFirst 3 levels
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The main purpose of a The main purpose of a project plan is ____project plan is ____
acquire resourcesacquire resources
guide project guide project executionexecution..
meet standards expectations.meet standards expectations. reduce risk.
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The most important The most important output of project output of project execution isexecution is
Work productsWork products Not---change requestsNot---change requests Not—the WBSNot—the WBS
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The Principle…The Principle…
That work tends to fill up the time That work tends to fill up the time allotted to it is known as…..allotted to it is known as…..
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An activity has probabilistic An activity has probabilistic completion times of 20, 50 completion times of 20, 50 and 80 for the optimistic, and 80 for the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic most likely and pessimistic durations.durations.What is the average time (duration) What is the average time (duration)
assuming a beta distribution?assuming a beta distribution? 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070
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You should knowYou should know
How to construct a NETWORK How to construct a NETWORK chart from a tablechart from a table
How to construct a Gantt chart How to construct a Gantt chart from a tablefrom a table
How to perform NETWORK How to perform NETWORK crashing crashing
How to do EVAHow to do EVA
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For each chapter….For each chapter….
Skim the chapterSkim the chapter Examine the SUMMARY and the Examine the SUMMARY and the
SUMMARY OF KEY TERMS SUMMARY OF KEY TERMS SECTIONS at the end of each SECTIONS at the end of each chapterchapter
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Chapter 2: Quality Chapter 2: Quality ManagementManagement
Know the four operation typesKnow the four operation types Know the three types of make-to-Know the three types of make-to- Know the four dimensions of Know the four dimensions of
competitioncompetition What does DMAIC stand for?What does DMAIC stand for?
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Chapter 3: Quality Chapter 3: Quality ManagementManagement
Name three quality gurusName three quality gurus Describe the relationship between Describe the relationship between
TQM and continuous improvementTQM and continuous improvement Understand the costs of qualityUnderstand the costs of quality What is the relationship between What is the relationship between
quality and productivity?quality and productivity?• Remember the yield formula??Remember the yield formula??
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Chapter 4: Statistical Chapter 4: Statistical Quality ControlQuality Control
Know p-charts, c-charts, xbar-Know p-charts, c-charts, xbar-charts, rbar-chartscharts, rbar-charts
Which of these are used for Which of these are used for attributes, which for variables?attributes, which for variables?
Will not test you on AOQ, LTPDWill not test you on AOQ, LTPD• {old antiquated concepts}{old antiquated concepts}
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Chapter 6: Processes and Chapter 6: Processes and TechnologiesTechnologies
Quality Function DeploymentQuality Function Deployment
House of QualityHouse of Quality
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Chapter 6, Cont’d: Chapter 6, Cont’d: Process Planning, Process Planning, Analysis…Analysis…
Process analysis, flowchartsProcess analysis, flowcharts• SYMBOLS: Operation, Inspect, SYMBOLS: Operation, Inspect,
Transport, Delay, StorageTransport, Delay, Storage Flexible Manufacturing Sys, Flexible Manufacturing Sys,
RoboticsRobotics IT: ExNETWORK Systems, Decision IT: ExNETWORK Systems, Decision
Support SystemsSupport Systems CIMCIM
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Reengineering design Reengineering design principlesprinciples
Eliminate handoffsEliminate handoffs Organize around outputsOrganize around outputs Capture information once at the Capture information once at the
sourcesource Eliminate multiple external contact Eliminate multiple external contact
pointspoints Simplify workSimplify work
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Chapter 10: Supply Chain Chapter 10: Supply Chain ManagementManagement
Logistics by any other nameLogistics by any other name IT IntegrationIT Integration The bane of SCM is ______?The bane of SCM is ______?
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Chapter 14: Sales & Chapter 14: Sales & Operations PlanningOperations Planning
Three planning Three planning horizonshorizons
Long-range planningLong-range planning Medium range planning—Medium range planning—
aggregate prod planningaggregate prod planning Short-range planningShort-range planning
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Chapter 16: Just-in-time Chapter 16: Just-in-time and Lean Productionand Lean Production
Name five approaches to Name five approaches to leanness…leanness…
What does SMED mean?What does SMED mean? How can small lots be made How can small lots be made
economically effective?economically effective?
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Chapter 15: Enterprise Chapter 15: Enterprise Resource PlanningResource Planning
ERP Implementation is _____ERP Implementation is _____
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Chapter 9: Project Chapter 9: Project ManagementManagement
Probabilistic NETWORK—be able to Probabilistic NETWORK—be able to find the mean and standard deviation find the mean and standard deviation when given an optimistic, most likely when given an optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimateand pessimistic estimate
BE able to calculate BE able to calculate project duration, project project duration, project variance for NETWORK variance for NETWORK project TASKSproject TASKS
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Network diagrams, Network diagrams, drawn by commercial drawn by commercial softwaresoftware
Do they use Do they use •Activity-on-Node, or Activity-on-Node, or •Activity-on-Arrow Activity-on-Arrow representations?representations?
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That’s all folksThat’s all folks
{I enjoyed having you as a class}{I enjoyed having you as a class}