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GEOG 433,GEOG 433,November 26, 2013, part 2November 26, 2013, part 2

Continuation:Continuation:Climate Change, Kyoto and Climate Change, Kyoto and

Russian Carbon CreditsRussian Carbon Credits

Projected future changes in Northern Asia permafrost

boundary

Climate Change in the Russian NorthClimate Change in the Russian North

Background & Some Questions Background & Some Questions being exploredbeing explored

Basic UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol What are the GHG trends and sources? What is happening with regard to temperature trends? What has been Russia’s history regarding Kyoto? Who are Russia’s Kyoto stakeholder players? Why was Russia’s ratification important to the Kyoto Protocol? Why did Russia ratify the Kyoto Protocol? How can the Kyoto Protocol affect Russia’s economy? How does Russia affect the EU Emission Trading Scheme? How will Russia’s “Hot Air” affect the price of GHG credits? What is the rationale for Russian compliance with Kyoto? What are the elements for Russian institutional compliance? What are the Russian compliance problems? Bigger questions: carbon trading & social justice, Clean Development

Mechanism vs Clean Development Fund, international “Hot Air” trading, role of U.S. as Kyoto opponent, role of World Bank

Basic UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol informationBasic UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol information

UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Kyoto Protocol is amendment of UNFCCCSigned December 11, 1997 at Kyoto, JapanOpened for signature on March 16, 1998Need 55 countries representing 55% of 1990 CO2

emissions to ratify for entry-into-forceGHG reduction targets for 2008-20126 GHGs include CO2, CH4, N20, CFC-12,CFC-102001 Bush says U.S. will not ratify44.2% of 1990 global GHC emissions without US,

Russia, AustraliaRussia 17.4% of 1990 CO2 emissionsUS and Australia ~40% of GHG emissionsTalks stall in Hague post-2000 election2001 Bonn COP revisions - allows CO2 sink

Geographical Pattern of Kyoto Geographical Pattern of Kyoto AcceptanceAcceptance

A Ruff RescueA Ruff Rescue

Global Fossil Carbon Emissions (1800-2000)

Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations and Anthropogenic Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

Oil shock & recession

USSR & E.European collapse

Source: IPCC, 1995

------Annual Mean Temp., ------ 5-year Mean

What is happening with temperature trends?What is happening with temperature trends?

COCO22 & Temperature trendsTemperature trends

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/special_report/sci/tech/global_warming

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2001-World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2001-2025 (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)2025 (Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)

Regional trends in Carbon emissions (MMT of C/year)

Russian government wants to sell part of Russia’s greenhouse gas emission quotas - AAUs (Assigned Amount Units) / Image

from ublib.buffalo.edu

CO2 emissions from Russia.

Per capita CO2 emission estimates for Russia.