Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
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Transcript of Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
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Dynamic Cities:Planning for Peak Oil and
Climate Change
Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP
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Peak Oil and
Climate Change
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US Domestic Oil Production
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US Energy Information Agency
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US Energy Information Agency
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US Energy Information Agency
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US Energy Information Agency
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Peak Oil
+ Climate Change
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
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Make resilient investments in infrastructure
Create resilient city systems
12
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
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Make resilient investments in infrastructure(invest in projects that retain their value across many futures)
Create resilient city systems
12
Scenario Planning!
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
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Make resilient investments in infrastructure
Create resilient city systems(that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks)
12
Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks
The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient
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Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
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Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.
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Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence
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BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
?
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
‘Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.
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WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
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WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
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WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
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WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
San Antonio: 410 Expansion
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Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?
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Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional OilAvailable to U.S. Consumers
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel
Example: Freight Truck Miles
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Total Transportation Capacity
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads?
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change
Population
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by
increasing prices)
B.A.U. (Population and economic
growth)
Today
Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards
Population
Widening Mobility Gap
Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change
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Concern for climate change is critical, but what really drives change ‘at scale’?
- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
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- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
= Transition Shocks
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Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world?Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system?
- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages
= Transition Shocks
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The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient
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Planning Dynamic Cities:
1. Throw away your extrapolated forecasts
2. Get your team up to speed on peak oil and climate change
3. Create a Transition Scenario for your region / organization (Bundle together multiple assumptions)
4. ‘Stress Test’ Projects- Test your project’s value across multiple scenarios- Test your technology and funding through transition shocks
5. Start talking about the ‘Resilient Post-Carbon Economy’- Prioritize projects reducing emissions and oil dependence- New low carbon trade links within the Cascadia mega-region- Plan as if we’re at ‘peak roads’
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Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
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Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility
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‘Net Positive’ BusinessAs the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down
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‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
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‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
All electric goods movement
Rail to Electric cross docking(False Creek Flats)
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‘Eco-density’Laneway Housing