Research Speak 25-6-2010

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    Market Commentary

    Indian market has bounced back smartly since recent correction. This rebound is remarkable in the context of

    positive data pertaining to improvement in credit off take to private companies, significant improvement in IIPnumbers and policy initiatives like 3G auction , broadband wireless auction and partial deregulation of fuel prices.

    In contrast to Indian capital markets bounce back in the backdrop of several positive news, international capital

    markets have bounced back simply on the basis of absence of more bad news from Euro zone. Most of the Indiancompanies catering to domestic consumption and investment cycles have recently announced about strong

    revival of demand. Thus there is strong difference between Indian capital markets recovery and elsewhere.Recently global markets took a very positive view about Chinas announcement to allow gradual appreciation of

    its currency. This only reinforces the view that global markets are really struggling to get any meaningful positive

    news and hence such huge kneejerk reaction to Chinas announcement.

    But look at India where month on month automobile sales are picking up despite huge base effect, real estate

    players are announcing about demand revival, many such stalled projects have been resumed in recent times,

    FMCG companies are upbeat about strong sales trend in urban and rural areas, government confident of

    consumers absorbing hike in petrol and diesel prices, much better monsoon compared to last year etc. All these

    factors point to strong earnings growth in most of the domestically focused companies.

    The only joker in the whole pack may be inflation numbers and hence fear about interest rate hike. But there isstrong indication that inflation numbers are gradually being contributed not only supply side pressures but also

    demand side factors. Hence rise in inflation is only on expected lines. Contrast this with most of other economies

    suffering from deflation fear and hence there is hardly any discussion of interest rate hike saves for China.

    Low interest rates globally may be beneficial for Indian capital market and Indian companies eager to raise capital

    abroad. Moreover recent major policy moves by Central government may enhance the multiples traditionally

    enjoyed by India so far in the eyes of FII investors. Hence unless and until some catastrophic event happening

    abroad and consequent rise in risk aversion, Indian capital markets are likely to witness new highs in coming days.

    But in this benign situation, stock picking skills will be rewarded more than blind investment style.

    Banking

    RBI Action

    There are various speculations and expectations surrounding what step the RBI would take in its next

    meet on July 27th, or even before that since the inflation is soaring high in double digits. (see fig.

    below)

    Research Speak Week Ended 25th June, 2010

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    well explored. Though successive round of NELP (new exploration licensing policy) is almost 10 years old, notmuch crude or gas has been added except cairn Indias Rajasthan block. RILs D6 block has been unable to ramp

    up gas production beyond 60mmscmd despite its daily production capacity of 120mmscmd due to some policy

    matters.

    In light of these facts, it was imperative that Indias consumers should reflect realities to the maximum possibleextent so that this non renewable scarce fuel is used judiciously. But government in its wisdom decided to shield

    consumers from reality by directly or indirectly providing subsidy.

    Current Pricing Policy: A key reason behind high petroleum subsidies has been pricing policy, whereby the prices

    of petrol, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene, which comprise 63% of the total consumption of

    petro products, are controlled by the Government. Under this system, oil marketing companies have beenmaking losses with the burden being borne by: (1) upstream oil sector companies, (2) the government by

    issuing oil bonds, and 3) the residual amount absorbed by downstream OMCs. Apart from imposing a huge fiscal

    strain, the policy regime has discouraged competition, since private sector players do not receive financial

    support. Had there been no hike in petrol or diesel prices, the total under recoveries for FY11E would have been

    Rs1 lakh crore. In light of this dire situation, planning commission member Mr. Kirit Parikh was appointed tosuggest some reforms so as to reduce huge fiscal deficit problem and also to improve financial health position of

    upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India Ltd and downstream companies like IOC, HPCL and BPCL.

    Reforms proposed by the Kirit Parikh Committee include:

    ? Petrol and Diesel: Complete de-regulation of petrol and diesel pricing, with prices being market-determined at both the refinery gate and the retail level. It also recommends an additional excise duty on

    diesel car owners.? LPG and Kerosene: The Committee recognizes that these fuels be subsidized, since kerosene is a primary

    source of lighting in most rural households, while LPG is a clean-cooking fuel, and therefore a merit good.

    However, it has pointed out that there is scope to rationalize allocation, given that the poorest rural households

    spend only 2% of their monthly expenditure on kerosene and much of it is currently being adulterated with dieseland/or smuggled to the neighboring economies where the price is 3 to 4 times that of India. To this end, it

    recommends:

    *An increase in kerosene prices by Rs6/ltr (current price at Rs9/ltr), and thereafter periodic increase in prices in-line with nominal agri GDP growth.

    * An increase in LPG prices by Rs100/cylinder (this would keep subsidy provided at FY04 levels), and thereafter aperiodic increase in prices inline with per capita income.

    Yesterday the much-awaited Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) meeting resulted in a number of sweeping

    changes on fuel prices; including: (1) shift to market-driven prices for petrol this would result in prices rising by

    6.7% (an increase of Rs3.5/ltr),(2) while diesel would also be de-regulated over time, prices have been raised by

    5% (Rs2/ltr) for now, (3) Prices of cooking fuels LPG and kerosene have been raised by 11.2% (Rs35/cylinder)and 33.3% (Rs3/ltr) respectively; but continue to remain administered. Changes signal a move towards

    recommendations of the Kirit Parikh Committee and bode well for the fiscal health of the economy.

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    What the EGoM meeting is silent about

    Amidst the euphoria created by yesterdays decision to link petrol prices to market linked prices of crude, some

    gray areas still remain. First and foremost, petrol under recoveries constitute less than 10% of overall subsidies or

    under-recoveries. Hence deregulation of diesel would have been much more welcome. Secondly, government

    may interfere at this free pricing of petrol if crude oil prices go up substantially. Though it has not exactly speltout at what level of crude price, government intervention will become necessary; it still remains a grey area.

    Thirdly, at what ratio the remaining under recoveries will be shared among upstream, downstream oil companies

    and government has not been spelt out. When the actual under recovery figure is announced next year, then

    only we will come to know the sharing burden among all these companies.

    Fourth, Kirit Parikh committee has recommended that GAIL be left out from any subsidy sharing mechanism as it

    is neither strictly upstream nor downstream company. But government has not taken any decision as far as GAIL

    is concerned. Thus as on today we do not know whether GAIL would share any subsidy burden in FY11E and

    beyond.

    Stock impact

    All public sector oil companies whether upstream and downstream companies are likely to be benefitted from

    the above move by the government. Our recent top pick has been ONGC as recently gas price being sold by it was

    raised significantly. We have put a price target of Rs1450 before yesterdays move on ONGC with 12 monthinvestment horizon. The stock has gone up significantly after that. Yesterdays move has resulted about 15%

    earnings upgrade to ONGC. Additionally, two rounds of successive positive reforms has the potential to raise the

    P/E multiple enjoyed by the company so far. Traditionally ONGC has enjoyed around 11-12 times forward oneyear P/E multiple. At around Rs110 EPS for FY11E and applying a P/E of 14, we arrive a target price of Rs1540for ONGC. Retain BUY.

    On the other hand, EPS upgrdation of about 20% is likely for all the PSU oil marketing companies. Despiteyesterdays smart move by IOC, BPCL and HPCL, we see around 10-15% upside in all these three companies. We

    recommend Buy in all of them.

    Yesterdays decision may result in some upside in private refiners like RIL and Essar Oil as they may reopen theirpetrol outlets. Moreover they are capable of refining petrol and diesel at much lesser cost compared to PSU

    refiners. Hence recommend BUY in these two stocks as well.

    Infrastructure

    20 km a day target a distant dream for the road ministry

    Ever since Mr. Kamal Nath has taken over the road ministry, he has projected a dream target of building 20km of

    road per day. Land acquisition problems and other execution hurdles have slowed down the process. Although

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    government seems to have made a significant progress in addressing the issues, infrastructure finance is the

    biggest concern for both the government and the private players.

    Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has also raised doubts over the feasibility of the

    financing plan that targets 20-km-a-day highway construction. In his views the NHAI does not borrow on its

    strength and has a limited capacity available under government guarantee, which also has to meet the

    requirements of other critical sectors. In the EGoM meeting held in May, he said that the resource availability

    for the National Highways Development Programme would depend on the needs of other sectors, which will

    emerge after the finalization of the XIIth Five-year plan.

    There are various reasons that have forced the government to go on a back foot on the original financing plan.Firstly, the NHAI was not able to award the targeted 12,000 km highway projects for 2009-2010 and managed to

    award just about 3,700 km projects. This has created a backlog. Meanwhile, construction cost has gone up by 10

    per cent, affecting the financing plan. The other major reason is that cess collections have also been down by 3-4

    per cent in 2009-10, a senior government official associated with the process said.

    Our View

    We need to understand the fact that though the target of 20km a day is being questioned, there is going to be

    tremendous improvement incrementally. Currently India is building roads at the rate of 5-6 Km a day. So even if

    India can manage to reach the levels of 9-10 Km a day, it would mean a lot of progress from the current levels.

    Rather than looking at the target being missed, we should observe the continuous progress in the sector.

    Individual companies which have strong financial and technical capabilities will continue to do well.

    Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) Ltd

    We have included NCC in our coverage. The company has posted a strong result for FY10. It has achieved a

    turnover of Rs 5897 Cr for the current year compared to Rs 4786 Cr in the previous year, registering a growth of

    23%. The company has posted an EBITDA of Rs. 658.23 Cr (11.11%) and a net profit of Rs 282.74 Cr as against Rs.

    504 Cr and Rs 181 Cr respectively in the previous year. The company has reported a consolidated EPS of Rs 11.55

    as against Rs 7.92 in the previous year.

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    Diversified Order book: Order flow is expected to continue in FY11 as well.

    Order Book

    Summary

    Order Mix (In Cr) Order Mix (%)

    Sectors 2009 2010 2009 2010

    Building 2561 3689 21% 24%

    Transportation 976 1178 8% 8%

    Water &

    Environment

    2439 2421 20% 16%

    Electrical 610 710 5% 5%

    Irrigation 610 1576 5% 10%

    Metals 732 495 6% 3%

    Power 732 1063 6% 7%

    International 2561 3292 21% 21%

    Others 976 946 8% 6%

    Total 12197 15370 100% 100%

    The management expects a consolidated sales turnover of Rs 7300 Cr for the current fiscal ending March 2011

    with NCC standalone contributing about Rs 5800 Cr, International Construction operations about Rs 1150 Cr, NCC

    Urban about Rs 250 Cr and NCC Infra about Rs 110 Cr.

    EBITDA margin of 10.1%-10.5% in FY11 is expected.

    Order intake for the current fiscal is expected at about Rs 15000 Cr. The company expects strong traction in

    verticals like building, roads, power and water. The company expects fresh orders to the tune of Rs 3500 Cr from

    building, Rs 2000 Cr worth of orders in roads, Rs 5000 Cr in power, Rs 1500 Cr worth of orders in water and about

    Rs 500-700 worth of orders from other verticals. As of now the company is L1 for orders worth Rs 3000-4000 Cr.

    And has about Rs 5000-7000 Cr worth of orders for which it has submitted bids or various stage of tendering etc.

    Consolidated debt is about Rs 3232 Cr with standalone debt standing at Rs 1580 Cr.

    Power projects: About 65% of the work has been completed so far on the 110 MW Sorang Hydro Power Project

    in Himachal Pradesh. The CoD (date of commissioning) is Sep 2011. Regarding the other 280 MW hydel power

    project, it is in development stage. As far as the AP thermal power project all approvals were in place and the

    work to commence in a couple of months.

    BOT Road projects: The Companys BOT road portfolio consists of 5 road projects of which 3 being toll based and

    2 being annuity based. Of the total 5 project, two is already operational and the balance three will commence

    operation in second half of FY11 generating revenue.

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    International Operations: Total revenue from international operation during FY10 stood at Rs 1128 Cr. The Oman

    subsidiary made a turnover of Rs 80 Cr with an EBITDA of 17% for FY10 and the Dubai Subsidiary earned an

    income of Rs 176 Cr with an EBITDA of 7.29%.

    Recommendation

    The stock of NCC is currently trading at Rs188. It is 16 times FY10 earnings. The strong order book of Rs 15370 Cr

    is 3.2 times the construction revenues of FY10. With the diversity in order book and a constant push from the

    government for the infra sector, we expect the company to execute its projects in time. The improved execution

    cycle should reflect in strong FY11 earnings as well. Thereby, we are bullish on the stock at current levels.

    M&M

    Buy at dips

    Current CMP: Rs 615 Recommended entry price: Rs 540 Target price: Rs 630.

    FY10 was a year of strong growth for the company due to robust demand for its utility vehicles and tractors. All

    its models in utility vehicles Scorpio, Xylo and Bolero were in good demand resulting in robust volume growth in

    this business segment. Despite poor monsoons in FY10, tractor sales were quite good due to the governments

    focus on agriculture, rural and infrastructure development. Higher volumes coupled with lower commodity costs

    resulted in significant margin expansions in both the businesses-automotive(12.61% vs 6.06%) and farmequipment (18.91% vs 11.01%).

    Volumes FY09 FY10 % chg.

    UVs 153655 214128 39%

    Tractors 112695 165633 47%

    Financial Performance

    Particulars Q4FY10 Q4FY09 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg

    Net Sales 5278.86 3619.38 45.8 18452.02 12985.25 42.1

    PBIDT 863.7 619.14 39.5 3245.34 1403.97 131.2PAT 570.26 418.07 36.4 2087.75 867.51 140.7

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    Revenues Q4FY10 Q4FY09 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg

    Automotive segment 3113.93 2189.6 42.21% 10615.19 7384.52 43.75%

    Farm equipment segment 2176.34 1440.57 51.07% 7935.14 5667.23 40.02%

    PBIT

    Automotive segment 406.46 175.31 131.85% 1338.82 447.61 199.10%

    Farm equipment segment 435.82 156.99 177.61% 1500.86 623.95 140.54%

    PBIT margin (%)

    Automotive segment 13.05% 8.01% 12.61% 6.06%

    Farm equipment segment 20.03% 10.90% 18.91% 11.01%

    We expect demand momentum in the UV segment to continue in FY11 with improving finance availability and

    pick up in consumer spending due to higher economic growth. Tractors business is likely to see higher demand

    with good monsoons this year coupled with increased emphasis of the government on infrastructure and rural

    development. The company has entered the commercial vehicle business in a JV with Renault and has recently

    commenced marketing the CVs with rollout of a 25 tonne truck. Good response to its CV products could be an

    added positive in FY11. However its plans to enter the US market with Scorpio pickups has been delayed and thelaunch is expected to be the end of the current year. The stock has given stellar performance in recent times and

    any market correction could provide an good entry point. We recommend investors to buy the stock at dips at

    around Rs 540/ level which would be 12(x)FY11E estimated standalone earnings with a target of Rs 630, an

    upside of 16%.

    Commodities Outlook

    Steel

    Global steel prices continued to be weak, and yet failed to find buyers in a pessimistic market. Buyers chose to wait and

    watch in the anticipation that prices may fall further. This has further dampened the buying sentiments and most of the

    purchases were based on immediate needs. Apart from the lack of buying interest, the large inventory levels have been a

    burden for the producers in an already subdued market.

    The producers are struggling with high inventory levels. Meanwhile, the declining prices coupled with weak demand have

    created a tremendous pressure on the margins of steel makers. In case the downward price trend continues, there would be

    production cuts as certain producers are facing margin pressure. Already certain areas are witnessing some overcapacity

    situation. Thus, the buyers are lowering their offers to speed up sales.

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    Some traders are optimistic that buying activity will revive in August-September when existing stockpiles will have been

    depleted and demand from auto and white goods sectors will increase. However, owing to the current uncertainty the

    market direction is difficult to predict.

    Flat Products

    There was an overall weakness in the flat products market this week. Irrespective of the region, the buyers deferred their

    purchases anticipating a further fall in prices, while some of the players are lowering their offers to provide a boost to sales.

    The export market was also quiet due to lack of buying interest in the market. The flat market remained weak in the

    Southeast Asian region in tandem with sluggish demand and bearish sentiment. Regional buyers fear further price falls and

    only CRC users who need material urgently were making their purchases. The sma ller mills were only able to sell at lower

    prices because they are using lower-priced hot band. Spot HRC prices have also fallen significantly in recent weeks.

    The downtrend continued in the Indian flat product market as the prices remained under pressure owing to low demand.

    The market sentiment remained bearish, said a local trader. The buyers were cautious and expecting prices to fall even

    further. On the other hand, Indian exports of primarily hot-dip galvanised sheets were under pressure from weak

    international demand and aggressive competition from China. Amid a dearth of orders, several Indian mills were

    surrendering to buyer demands for lower prices. Some are even trimming production by as much as 30%. However, on the

    back of lack of buying interes t and large inventory levels burdening an already subdued domestic market, imports of hot

    rolled coils into India have slowed.

    Stock levels of commercial grade HRC have reached about 5,00,000 tons in Mumbai alone. The market expects the

    inventories in thi s region to swell by a further 100,000-200,000 tons this month. Some traders are optimistic that buying

    activity wil l revive in August-September when existing stockpiles will have been depleted and demand from Indias auto and

    white goods sectors will increase. However, owing to the current uncertainty, the market direction is difficult to predict.

    The situation in China witnessed no change as due to a lack of demand from overseas, most Chinese hot rolled coil producers

    saw a shrink in their export orders. Chinese HRC exports, as per the market reports is expected to decrease in June by

    around 30-40% from May, and therefore the domestic market will be under even more pressure. Already the Chinas

    domestic market is weak and adding on to the woes the foreign buyers are also not interested in buying.

    Expectation

    The market is unlikely to see a major difference from the current situation as the demand is likely to remain weak coupled

    with fluctuating currency market and approaching European summer and Muslim festival Ramadan. In US, the demand is

    expected to fall further. Meanwhile, in Europe, it is likely that the market will develop in one of two ways. If the euro

    continues to strengthen, domestic buyers could turn to imports which might provoke a downward adjustment from

    domestic mills. The alternative outcome is that buyers stock levels become depleted after months of no purchasing activity,

    which would result in a sudden rush of re-stocking as long as imports do not play a role. But in both scenarios is likely to

    occur in August. The Asian market is also unlikely to see any improvement before August as the buyers purchases would be

    primarily need based.

    Long Products

    The long products market continued to be weak owing to sluggish demand and softness in scrap prices. The buyers are

    anticipating a further drop in prices, which kept them away from making large purchases, and thus this week was mostly to

    fulfil immediate requirements. In addition to this, the construction activities in most regions were slow, adding to the woes

    of the producers. The market expects a number of production cuts across the globe to control the current downtrend.

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    The long products market in Southeast Asia was very weak, along with the soft scrap market and bearish sentiment. Mini

    mills of certain regions were mulling production cutbacks. The mills were incurring large losses because they are using scrap

    booked previously at above $400 per ton cfr. In India, even as steel prices have declined across all regions in June, it has

    failed to enthuse the buyers. Most steel majors have cut prices of TMT bars by around 6 percent in June to restore the

    normal gap between their prices and the re rollers. However, market sources revealed that the cut was primarily to maintain

    the project buying at the normal level which had shown signs of slipping.

    In addition, higher import in May has been putting pressure on domestic steel makers. There is a growing fear that

    continuation of this scenario might result into doubling of unsold inventories for certain steel makers, primarily the

    secondary ones. The inventory level moved up with both producers and traders, and this further dampened the

    sentiments, noted a trader. Market sources also confirmed that the market was weak owing to insignificant dema nd and

    pessimistic sentiments. Although a section of the market feels that the buyers have adopted a wait and watch attitude,

    others believe that there is actual lack of demand. The producers are struggling with high inventory level. The producers

    have huge stock with them as both the end users and traders have stopped purchases, noted a local producer. Meanwhile,

    the declining prices have created a tremendous pressure on the margins of steel makers, primarily the smaller players and

    re-rollers. Already some of the secondary producers have cut production. In case the downward price trend continues, there

    will be more production cuts as smaller producers are facing margin pressure.

    In eastern India, the primary reason for the downtrend was the truncated iron ore movement from Jharkhand and Orissa,

    according to local market sources. In addition, weakness in demand from the end user segment added to the woes of the

    market. Meanwhile, as the issue of iron ore has been resolved at the official level, as per market sources, the situation might

    ease soon. Thus, the local producers are expecting an improvement in the demand, primarily of ingots. The secondary

    market has been almost non-functional for the past few weeks, and whatever movement of material took place, was

    primarily in the prime products segment.

    With the onset of monsoon, construction activities will decline, and thus there will be absolutely no support from this

    segment in terms of demand. There is almost no demand from the end users. Moreover, with the onset of monsoon,

    construction activities have also slowed down. Thus, the demand for TMT bars is almost negligible, noted a trader. The

    prices have dropped significantly compared to previous month and followed a range bound movement during the initial

    fortnight of the month. The market expects the trend to continue until the monsoons are over. And finally, the weakness in

    the global steel market has also resulted in creation of major pessimism in the market, which is hampering the exports of the

    secondary producers. The market is thus unlikely to see any improvement soon.

    The situation was no different in China as prices continued to soften on the back of weak demand. Amidst this gloominess,

    Shagang cut its rebar prices by RMB 100 per ton ($15 per ton) for mid-June delivery, but kept its wire rod prices unchanged.

    Therefore, its 16-25mm HRB335 rebar prices declined to RMB 3,950 per ton ($578 per ton) and 6.5mm Q235 wire rod

    remained at RMB 4,300 per ton ($629 per ton) inclusive of 17% VAT. Shagang will conduct maintenance on one of its bar

    mills around June 15, which will cut production of rebar and barin-coil by about 60,000 tons. Some believe that Shagangs

    maintenance at this specific time is related to Chinas current weak domestic market. Chinas rebar markets have also shown

    no signs of recovery after businesses reopened following the Dragon Boat Festival holidays over June 14 to June 16. Prices in

    most cities are stable. Spot markets remained quiet although prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly,

    supported by the strong performance of US stock markets. Buyers adopted a wait-and-watch attitude since market

    sentiment has remained poor.

    Expectation

    The market is likely to remain weak in the week beginning June 21, 2010 on the back of poor demand and softness in the

    scrap prices. The buyers would continue to defer their purchase as they anticipate the prices would fall further. In India, the

    prices might see a range bound movement but if the prices continue to fall further, it may lead to a number of production

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    cuts, mainly in the secondary market. In Turkey, some demand might come back to the market due to long-delayed

    bookings, but not in the short term. At the same time the raw material side is not seen to be strong. Turkish market prices

    are likely to fall further, if the fall in scrap prices continue.

    Iron ore

    Spot prices of iron ore in the Chinese market remained mostly unchanged despite reports of Baosteel agreeing to buy at

    higher prices in the July to September quarter. Chinas largest steelmaker, Baosteel, has apparently settled quarterly

    contract prices with leading miners such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton at $147 per ton fob, for iron ore characterized by 62

    percent Fe content, as per market reports.

    However, contrary to supplier expectations, this news did not really help in lifting the sentiment in the market. Some market

    participants attributed this dull scenario to the fact that the Chinese market had reopened after a three-day Dragon Boat

    festival holiday on July 17, and since only one day was left before the weekend not many mills were keen on conducting

    business. Now that Baosteel has agreed, it is expected that most other steel mills in China would follow suit and would

    eventually have to agree with the hike. Baosteel, apart from being the largest steelmaker in the country, is also Chinas

    appointed negotiator in iron ore price talks with global miners. However, so far there has been no official confirmation or

    public notice which has come in from either parties on the price hike which has been agreed upon.

    There has been a marginal improvement in reference prices after the holiday break observed in some of the Asian countries.

    Though the market continues to remain quiet reference prices for both 62% as well as 58% Fe content ore rose slightly in the

    week gone by. The reference price for 62% Fe content iron ore fines was recorded at $144.10 per dry metric ton, cfr Tianjin

    port, China, by the end of last week, registering a $1 per dry metric ton rise as compared to the previousweeks reference

    price.Expectation

    It seems that the much sought after stability in the iron ore market has finally set in. After the phenomenal rise in April prices

    started dipping in May and have finally stabilised in the month of June. With contract prices getting fixed at rates which are

    much higher than the current spot prices, suppliers will make all efforts to lift the spot market. Even though Chinese buyers

    had indicated that despite the spot prices being low, the mills would honour the contract and stick to them, a major

    discrepancy between spot and contract prices will not be sustainable. Hence, the spot prices are expected to pick up soon.

    Our View

    We remain cautiously optimestic on the indian steel sector and the iron ore space. Though the international scenario does

    not look favourable at least from the demand side in the near term the domestic demand scenario does look robust. The

    production cut backs and abolishion on the export rebate by China may keep the international steel prices to fall very

    sharply from the current level, whether the import parity prices or the landed cost of steel remains in line with the

    domestic prices or not is something we need to watch out for. For the time being we remain cautiosly optimestic on JSW

    Steel and would urge investors to stay invested in the stock, however we maintain our Avoid stance on Sesa Goa. If the

    prices corrects another 35-40% from the current level it might become a good stock to accumulate.

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    DISCLAIMER:This report is for information purposes only and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice. It is not intended as an offer or

    solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instrument. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your

    responsibility alone and Eureka Stock & Share Broking Services Ltd [hereinafter refereed as ESSBSL] and its subsidiaries or its employees or

    directors, associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in

    checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, but do not represent that it is accurate or complete. ESSBSL or any

    of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any

    inadvertent error in the information contained in this publication. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. ESSBSL

    and/or directors, employees or associates may have interests or positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report.

    Analyst Team

    Analyst Name Sectors E-mail Contact Number

    Samudrajit Gohain Oil & Gas, Engineering [email protected] +91- 9748860335

    Kinshuk Acharya Steel, Agriculture [email protected] +91- 9681478735

    Md. Riazuddin, FRM Banking, Economy, Power [email protected] +91- 9903062346

    Rajiv Agarwal Auto, Tea, Sugar [email protected] +91- 9903076345

    Ankit Kanodia Infrastructure [email protected] +91- 9163278562

    Research Desk:

    9B, Wood Street

    1st Floor.Kolkata- 700016

    Ph. No. 033- 39180386/87

    Registered Office :

    7 Lyons Range,

    2nd Floor,Room No. 1.

    Kolkata 700001

    Corporate office :

    B3/4, Gillander House,

    8 N S Road, 3rd Floor.

    Kolkata - 700001

    Ph. : 2210 7500 / 01 / 02 Fax: 2210 5184

    e-mail: [email protected]

    Mumbai Office:

    909 Raheja Chamber,

    213 Nariman Point.

    Mumbai-400021

    Ph.: (022) 2202 5941 / 5942 Fax: (022) 2288 8168

    e-mail: [email protected]