Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles

Professor : Kaibo Wang

Caleb Hou 2009210525

Huifan Xi 2009210137

Guangpu Lei 2009210135

Mathew 2009280134

Final Presentation Group 4

Outline

• Research Goal

• Background

• Mileage Analysis

• Market Analysis

• Conclusion

Target

Research goal:

• Which kind of micro car can be put in

the market

Research on:

• Urban mileage of personal vehicles

• Electric micro car market information

Survey among 500 randomly chosen

people in Beijing

Background

Desires of mankind:

• Relieve traffic load of cities

• Reduce gasoline consumption

Traffic in Beijing:

• Average speed of 25 km/h

• Highest speed limit 100 km/h (5th ring)

Data Analysis

Mileage analysis:

• Descriptive analysis on results of

the survey

• Daily mileage distribution analysis

• Relation of daily and annual

mileage

Micro car market analysis:

• Descriptive analysis on results of the

Survey

• Analysis whether like or dislike micro

cars

• Analysis on the expected price

Mileage: Variables

Variable Name Description(unit) Notes

DM Daily Mileage(km) Continuous

TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete

VT Vehicle Type Discrete

AM Annual Mileage(km) Continuous

GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km(L) Continuous

G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary

DA Driving Age of the respondent(yr) Continuous

OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete

EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete

FI Family Income per month Discrete

Daily Mileage Distribution

Capacity of 100 km per charge -> How many users can be satisfied

MileagePercentage of sample

Percentage of approximate distribution

30 50.000% 42.328%

50 74.691% 66.180%

70 81.070% 79.383%

100 95.062% 89.368%

• Current electric micro car: satisfies 95%

of car owners -> only charge at night

• Half of drivers -> one charge in 3 days

Daily Mileage Analysis

一般线性模型 : DM 与 TTS, VT, G, EL, OC, FI 来源 自由度 Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F PTTS 4 12815 14427 3607 2.49 0.043VT 2 1715 1044 522 0.36 0.698GC 1 11538 14230 14230 9.81 0.002G 1 1332 1227 1227 0.85 0.358DA 1 298 80 80 0.06 0.814EL 4 4683 4300 1075 0.74 0.564OC 10 24750 23706 2371 1.63 0.094FI 4 9457 9457 2364 1.63 0.166误差 436 632463 632463 1451合计 463 699052 S = 38.0868 R-Sq = 9.53% R-Sq （调整） = 3.92%

Daily Mileage Analysis (Cont‘d)

•GC is continuous with negative coefficient•car owners with a high GC travels less than the ones with a low GC

Relation Of Daily & Annual Mileage

Annual Mileage ≠ Daily Mileage * 365

回归分析 : AM 与 DM

回归方程为AM = 1228 + 221 DM

自变量 系数 准误 T P常量 1227.9 355.0 3.46 0.001DM 221.230 6.128 36.10 0.000

S = 4715.85 R-Sq = 74.2% R-Sq （调整） = 74.1% 

Explanation:

• People travel 221 days per year as routine

legal work days: 251 days per year

• Long distance travel of 1228 km

e.g. Holiday or business trip

Market Analysis: Variables

Variable Name Description Notes

LORN Like the micro car OR Not Discrete

SN Seats Number preferred Discrete

S The Size of micro car Discrete

P Price for a micro car Continuous

EORN Electricity driven OR Not Discrete

CT Charge type for electric vehicle Discrete

FC11ST important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car

Discrete

FC22nd important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car

Discrete

123

Category

399, 19. 6%

286, 17. 1%

1319, 63. 3%

Pi e Chart of 是否喜欢

Market Analysis: Results

234其他

Category其他

4, 0. 8%

4306, 60. 7%

389, 17. 7%

2105, 20. 8%

Pi e Chart of 座位数量

差不多更大更小

Category

更小128, 25. 4%

更大135, 26. 8%

差不多241, 47. 8%

Pi e Chart of 车辆尺寸

换电站其他自行充电

Category

自行充电316, 62. 7%

其他1, 0. 2%

换电站187, 37. 1%

Pi e Chart of 充电方式

Further Market Analysis Variables

Variable Name Description Notes

TP Travel Purpose Discrete

TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete

VT Vehicle Type Discrete

DM Daily Mileage Continuous

GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km Continuous

URP Urban Road Proportion per day Continuous

G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary

DA Driving Age of the respondent Continuous

EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete

OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete

FI Family Income per month Discrete

Further Analysis On LORN

Regression Analysis on LORN -> only VT influences LORN(only p-value < 0.05)

• micro car owners : 60.3%• impact car owners: 61.1%• others: 67.9%

Market Analysis: Results (Cont‘d)

1st most important factors:

• Mileage capacity

• Safety

2nd most important factors:

•Velocity

•Power

Expected Price Analysis价格万元

25

20

15

10

5

0

Boxpl ot of 价格万元

下四分 上四分

变量 合计数 N N* 平均值 标准差 最小值 位数 中位数 位数 最大值P 504 501 3 4.749 3.417 1.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 26.000

• Average expected price:

47,000 yuan

• 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan

Further Market Analysis Variables

Variable Name Description Notes

TP Travel Purpose Discrete

TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete

VT Vehicle Type Discrete

DM Daily Mileage Continuous

GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km Continuous

URP Urban Road Proportion per day Continuous

G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary

DA Driving Age of the respondent Continuous

EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete

OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete

FI Family Income per month Discrete

Further Analysis On PriceGeneral Linear Model:Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P出行目的 4 92.58 93.17 23.29 1.13 0.344短途交通 4 96.99 120.17 30.04 1.45 0.216汽车类型 2 131.89 169.22 84.61 4.09 0.017日驶里程 1 28.21 70.67 70.67 3.41 0.065单位耗油 1 37.54 58.53 58.53 2.83 0.093市区比例 1 25.16 19.59 19.59 0.95 0.331性别 1 64.29 61.76 61.76 2.98 0.085驾龄 1 22.44 20.72 20.72 1.00 0.318教育程度 4 20.08 9.74 2.43 0.12 0.976职务 10 228.83 217.33 21.73 1.05 0.400家庭月收入 4 51.15 51.15 12.79 0.62 0.650Error 438 9066.75 9066.75 20.70Total 471 9865.91 S = 4.54976 R-Sq = 8.10% R-Sq(adj) = 1.18% Term Coef SE Coef T P汽车类型1 -0.8881 0.4215 -2.11 0.0362 -0.0771 0.3082 -0.25 0.803

Further Analysis On Price (Cont‘d)

Main effect plot:

clear positive trend as current car size goes up -> probably occurred by financial condition

Conclusion

• 75% of citizens: routine mileage

less than 50 km

• Most people accept micro cars

• 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan