RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKET … · of US$2.03 billion from foreign...
Transcript of RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKET … · of US$2.03 billion from foreign...
PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE MARKETRESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT
www.colliers.com
1Q 2013 | MARKET OVERVIEW
Executive Summary
The Philippine economy is seeing momentous growth and could further expand following the achievement of its first investment grade to BBB- by Fitch. Last year, the country gained a total of US$2.03 billion from foreign direct inflows (FDIs), a growth of 9.8%, along with strong GDP growth of 6.6%. Among all industries, real estate was one of the main channels for investment. The recent credit rating upgrade suggests that activity in the property market will expand in the long term.
Close to 200,000 sq m of new office space was introduced in 1Q 2013. This includes Glorietta 1 BPO (21,700 sq m) and Glorietta 2 BPO (23,900 sq m) in the Makati CBD. However, supply is still seen to be muted in the business district with just a couple of buildings in the pipeline, namely Alphaland Makati Tower (38,000 sq m) along Ayala Avenue and V-Corporate Tower (28,900 sq) in Leviste Street, Salcedo Village. Both buildings are expected to complete in 2Q 2013 and 2Q 2014, respectively.
Across the five submarkets tracked by Colliers, 18 new residential condominiums will be introduced this year. Collectively, these condominiums consist of 7,181 new units, about 10% higher than the new supply delivered in 2012. Still, the majority of units fall into the smaller-sized categories of the studio and one-bedroom segments. Only about 21% are three- to four-bedrooms, which are required by many expatriates.
Overall, developers are highly confident with their expansion plans due to strong local demand backed by a robust economy. In Metro Manila alone, roughly over 800,000 sq m of retail space are currently in the pipeline and are targeted to be delivered within the next three years. Furthermore, retail developers are expected to introduce new formats and configurations, given the increasing competition and expanding market size.
ECONOMY
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL
MARKET INDICATORS
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL
ECONOMYThe Philippine economy is seeing momentous growth and could further expand following the achievement of its first investment grade to BBB- by Fitch. Last year, the country gained a total of US$2.03 billion from foreign direct inflows (FDIs), a growth of 9.8%, along with strong GDP growth of 6.6%. Among all industries, real estate was one of the main channels for investment. Investments in construction accelerated by 13.7% YoY in 2012, reversing 2011’s contraction.
This year, overall, investors’ confidence is seen to increase backed by the country’s robust macroeconomic fundamentals. The inflation rate remained manageable at 3.40% in 1Q 2013, leading to generally low mortgage lending rates of 5.6 to 7.9%. Meanwhile, OFW remittances continues to bolster domestic consumption. Total OFW remittances grew by 8% to US$1.68 billion in January of this year. A vital contributor to the economy, the BPO sector also grew by 18% to US$13 billion last year (IBPAP). It is projected to be a US$25-billion industry by 2016.
The recent credit rating upgrade suggests that activity in the property market will expand in the long term. This should translate to greater demand for commercial offices and luxury residential spaces; and stronger demand for industrial manufacturing facilities and hotel & gaming establishments.
a At constant 2000 pricesb Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishingc At constant 2006 prices
ECONOMIC INDICATORSa
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012
Gross National Product 6.10 6.00 6.50 8.40 3.20 5.80 5.60 6.60 5.40
Gross Domestic Product 6.60 4.20 1.10 7.60 3.90 6.40 5.90 7.10 6.80
Personal Consumption Expenditure 4.60 3.70 2.30 3.40 6.10 6.60 5.70 6.20 6.90
Gov’t Expenditure 6.90 0.30 10.90 4.00 1.00 24.00 5.90 12.00 9.10
Capital Formation -0.50 23.40 -8.70 31.60 8.10 -23.50 2.30 4.30 -1.40
Exports 6.70 -2.70 -7.80 21.00 -4.20 7.90 8.30 6.90 9.10
Imports 1.70 1.60 -8.10 22.50 0.20 -2.60 4.40 8.30 4.60
AHFFb 4.70 3.20 -0.70 -0.20 2.70 1.00 0.70 4.10 4.70
Industry 5.80 4.80 -1.90 11.60 2.30 4.90 4.60 8.10 7.50
Services 7.60 4.00 3.40 7.20 5.10 8.50 7.60 7.00 6.90
Average Inflationc 2.90 8.30 4.10 3.90 4.60 3.10 2.90 3.50 2.90
Budget Deficit (Billion Pesos) (P12.4) (P68.1) (P298.5) (P314.4) (P197.7) (P33.9) (P0.47) (P69.56) (P138.88)
PHP:US$ (Average) P46.1 P44.7 P47.6 P45.10 P43.31 P43.30 P42.80 P41.89 P41.20
Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates 3.40 5.20 4.00 3.70 1.37 1.88 2.33 1.45 0.34
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | THE KNOWLEDGE
OFW Remittances
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
In M
illio
n U
S D
olla
rs
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas* as of January 2013
LAND VALUESImplied land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 2.2% in 1Q 2013 to average PHP300,000 per sq m. This translates to an accommodation value of PHP18,700 per sq m. In Ortigas, land values increased at a marginal rate of 1.5%, pegged at an average of PHP136,000 per sq m. Meanwhile, land values in BGC continually track with that of Makati CBD, as growth is seen at 7.7% to average at PHP260,000 per sq m by 1Q 2014.
Makati CBD, Ortigas & Fort Bonifacio Average Land Values
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
F
peso
s per
squa
re m
eter
Makati CBD BGC Ortigas Ctr
LICENSES TO SELLOverall residential licenses issued by the HLURB from November 2012 to January 2013 increased significantly by 157%. The latest figures indicate that 70,566 units were licensed in this three-month period, up by around 43,112 units compared from year-ago level. The increase was mainly driven by the growth of licenses issued in the high-rise segment which reached 36,140 units (+370%). Moreover, with a growth of 104%, the number of socialized housing units has shown signs of sustainability against its double digit contraction in 2011. Meanwhile, the number of licenses in the middle-income housing segment has consecutively dropped for the last two years, registering a 9.7% decrease in 2012. Licenses in the same sector are expected to continually decrease in number as more middle-income developments are targeted to the high-rise residential segment.
HLURB Licenses
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
4Q99
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
units
Quarterly Approvals (LHS) Moving 12-Month Average (RHS)
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
COMPARATIVE LAND VALUES
PHP / SQ M 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY)
MAKATI CBD 280,380-315,800 280,100-303,550 2.15% 284,035-358,880 7.84%
ORTIGAS CENTER 101,870-170,160 100,364-167,644 1.50% 113,540-177,070 6.80%
BGC 195,000- 290,000 195,000-278,000 2.00% 219,475-302,900 7.71%
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
HLURB LICENCES TO SELL
SEGMENT NOV’12 - JAN’13 NOV’11 - JAN’12 % CHANGE YoY
Socialized Housing 12,022 5,904 103.6%
Low Cost Housing 13,600 9,121 49.1%
Mid Income Housing 8,804 4,742 85.7%
High Rise Residential 36,140 7,687 370.1%
Commercial Condominium 862 164 425.6%Farmlot 786 - -
Memorial Park 31,104 36,514 -14.8%
Industrial Subdivision 0 0 0.0%
Commercial Subdivision 98 63 55.6%
Total (Philippines) 103,416 64,195 61.1%
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
P. 3 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | THE KNOWLEDGE
OFFICE SECTORSupply
Supply artificially grew in 2013 as some developers slipped their project completions from 4Q 2012. As a result, a total of 31 new office buildings will be introduced in Metro Manila this year translating to over 560,000 sq m of new office space, a new record high. Nearly half of the new inventory for this year will be in Fort Bonifacio, where the majority of developments will be mainly BPO facilities. While the demand from the O&O industry continues to be robust, developers are geared towards delivering an additional 1.3 million sq m in the span of three years.
Close to 200,000 sq m of new office space was introduced in 1Q 2013. This includes Glorietta 1 BPO (21,700 sq m) and Glorietta 2 BPO (23,900 sq m) in the Makati CBD. However, supply is still seen to be muted in the business district with just a couple of buildings in the pipeline, namely Alphaland Makati Tower (38,000 sq m) along Ayala Avenue and V-Corporate Tower (28,900 sq) in Leviste Street, Salcedo Village. Both buildings are expected to complete in 2Q 2013 and 2Q 2014, respectively. As supply grows in other areas, the Makati CBD’s share of the total office space in Metro Manila will decline to 40% this year, compared to around 70% over a decade ago.
Demand
In 1Q 2013, the premium vacancy rate in the Makati CBD dropped to 5.8% from the 7.3% registered in the previous quarter. The decrease was mainly due to the improved occupancy level in Zuellig Building, the only office development introduced in Makati last year. Similarly, vacancies across Grade A offices narrowed by 1.3%, but a slight increase was seen in Grade B offices to 3.25% from 2.69% QoQ. The overall vacancy rate in the CBD will remain at the sub-4% level, at least before the completion of Alphaland Makati Tower.
Rents
Premium rental rates grew by a substantial 5.1% QoQ backed by generally higher landlord confidence – a result of the recent higher take-up rate at premium buildings coupled with the absence of upcoming new supply. The average premium rental rate is currently pegged at PHP980 per sq m monthly and is expected to grow by 7.1% by 1Q 2014. Meanwhile, Grade A and Grade B rental rates slightly increased by less than 1.0% to average at PHP740 and Php515 per sq m monthly, respectively. Both grades are expected to grow by 6% in the next 12 months.
Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1990
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F20
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in s
quar
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eter
s
Metro Manila Stock (LHS) Makati CBD (Stock) (LHS) Total Stock YoY Change (RHS)
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
(80,000)
(30,000)
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120,000
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F20
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in sq
.m.
New Supply During Year (LHS) Take-Up During Year (LHS) Vacancy at Year End (RHS)
MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE OFFICE VACANCY RATES (%)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 1Q 2014F
PREMIUM 5.83 7.37
GRADE A 2.13 3.49
GRADE B & BELOW 3.25 2.69
ALL GRADES 3.38 3.48 3.43Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
FORECAST OFFICE NEW SUPPLY (NET USEABLE AREA)
LOCATION END of 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F TOTAL
MAKATI CBD 2,771,784 74,130 24,248 - 2,870,162
ORTIGAS 1,175,350 66,999 39,773 - 1,282,122
FORT BONIFACIO 747,116 226,497 149,069 154,214 1,276,896
EASTWOOD 313,864 - - - 313,864
ALABANG 303,866 31,131 59,106 51,797 445,900
OTHER LOCATIONSa 872,983 161,407 132,507 274,284 1,441,181
TOTAL 6,184,963 560,164 404,703 480,295 7,630,125
Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchaManila, Pasay, Mandaluyong and Quezon City
P. 4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | OFFICE
COMPARATIVE OFFICE RENTAL RATES (PESOS/SQ M/MONTH)
MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY)
PREMIUM 860 - 1,100 860 - 970 5.1 880 - 1,220 7.1
GRADE A 575 - 900 570 - 900 0.3 620 - 950 6.7
GRADE B 450 - 575 450 - 565 0.9 470 - 620 6.3
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Capital Values
As with rental rates, average capital values for premium buildings in the Makati CBD grew by 4.3% QoQ to PHP125,000 per sq m, and will reach PHP134,350 per sq m by 1Q 2014. Meanwhile, Grades A and B capital values are currently at an average of PHP85,310 and 58,400 per sq m, respectively. Both grades will increase at between 5 and 6% in the next 12 months.
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Office Capital Values
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
F
1Q14
F
in p
eso
per s
q.m
.
Premium Grade A Grade B/B-
COMPARATIVE OFFICE CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M)MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY)PREMIUM 120,000 - 131,600 118,500 - 130,100 4.3 124,870 - 143,830 6.8GRADE A 71,725 - 98,890 71,015 - 98,400 0.2 78,400 - 102,805 6.1GRADE B 49,500 - 67,300 49,500 - 67,205 0.7 52,000 - 70,725 5.1
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Supply
Across the five submarkets tracked by Colliers, 18 new residential condominiums will be introduced this year. Collectively, these condominiums consist of 7,181 new units, about 10% higher than the new supply delivered in 2012. Still, the majority of units fall into the smaller-sized categories of the studio and one-bedroom segments. Only about 21% are three- to four-bedrooms, which are required by many expatriates.
Furthermore, the availability of premium condominiums remains limited with only three new projects slated to be completed this year. These developments are Discovery Primea (90 units) in the Makati CBD and Beaufort East & West Towers (276 units) in Bonifacio Global City. Besides Discovery Primea, over 1,900 more units are targeted to be turned over in the Makati CBD. These are all classified as Grade A condominiums with most of the unit sizes relatively compressed to 21 to 55 sq m.
Makati CBD Residential Stock
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
-5%
0%
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20%
25%
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4,000
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1Q01
3Q01
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3Q13
F1Q
14F
units
Residential Stock (LHS) YoY Change (RHS)
P. 5 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | OFFICE
Demand
In 1Q 2013, residential vacancy in the Makati CBD slightly decreased by 0.24% QoQ to 9.7%. The vacancy has been on a downward trend since 3Q 2012. However, the substantial upcoming new supply in the second half suggests that vacancies may increase to the sub-11% level towards the end of the year. Despite the increase, demand for premium condominiums will remain the strongest with a vacancy rate of below 5% by 1Q 2014.
Besides the three-bedroom premium units, expatriate demand for larger unit sizes of one- to two bedroom units has also increased based on the latest Colliers inquiries. These requirements came mostly from the international schools and institutions, the gaming and hotel industry, and from among the BPO firms. While demand for leasable properties remains high in Rockwell, Makati and BGC, the Pasay-Manila area has also become a preferred destination for expatriates engaged particularly in the Pagcor Entertainment City.
FORECASTRESIDENTIAL NEW SUPPLY
LOCATION END-2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTALMAKATI CBD 16,288 2,081 1,596 2,476 779 23,220ROCKWELL 3,718 - 441 - - 4,159FORT BONIFACIO 15,491 3,726 1,276 2,977 3,616 27,086ORTIGAS 10,987 934 792 1,560 405 14,678EASTWOOD 6,830 440 278 - 988 8,536TOTAL 53,314 7,181 4,383 7,013 5,788 77,679
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Residential Vacancy
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
F
1Q14
F
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
MAKATI CBD
COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES (%)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 1Q 2014F
LUXURY 4.7 4.8
OTHERS 10.4 10.7
ALL GRADES 9.8 10.0 10.0Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Rents
Premium three-bedroom rental rates in the Makati CBD grew by 2.3% QoQ and are pegged at PHP737 per sq m on average. This translates to a monthly rate of PHP184,250 for a 250 sq m unit. Premium rates for both the Makati CBD and BGC remain at parity and will improve by 8 to 9% in the next 12 months. In Rockwell, where supply is limited, premium rental rates grew 2.0% QoQ and have started to exceed the PHP800 level. Annual rent growth in Rockwell is projected at 9%.
Makati CBD, Rockwell, Bonifacio Global CityPrime 3BR Units Residential Rents
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
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3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
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1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
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3Q09
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Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
P. 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | RESIDENTIAL
COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATES (EXCLUSIVE VILLAGES)
3BR - 4BR, UNFURNISHED TO SEMI-FURNISHEDVILLAGES LOW HIGH
FORBES PARK 260,000 550,000DASMARIÑAS VILLAGE 200,000 450,000URDANETA VILLAGE 200,000 450,000BEL-AIR VILLAGE 100,000 300,000AYALA ALABANG VILLAGE 85,000 300,000SAN LORENZO VILLAGE 90,000 280,000
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Capital Values
Premium secondary capital values in BGC slightly edged out those of the Makati CBD in the last two consecutive quarters. Premium three-bedroom units in BGC were PHP121,500 per sq m in 1Q 2013, higher by over PHP1,100 than in the Makati CBD. Secondary prices in both districts will increase by over 7% in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, in Rockwell Center, the average capital value was PHP128,160 per sq m and is expected to grow by 8.7% in 1Q 2014.
Makati CBD Residential Capital Values
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
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110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
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3Q02
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3Q03
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3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
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3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
F1Q
14F
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eso
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Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City
METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUMCOMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR RENTAL RATES
LOCATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY)MAKATI CBD 540 - 930 525 - 915 2.3 550 - 1,040 7.9ROCKWELL 700 - 930 686 - 912 2.0 760 - 1,015 9.0BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 580 - 890 570 - 865 2.5 610 - 985 8.5
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
P. 7 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | RESIDENTIAL
COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATESTHREE-BEDROOM, SEMI-FURNISHED TO FULLY FURNISHED
LOCATION MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUMApartment Ridge / Roxas Triangle Rental Rangea 190,000 200,000 250,000 Average Sizeb 210 280 330
Salcedo Village
Rental Range 80,000 100,000 110,000 Average Size 170 190 330 Legaspi Village
Rental Range 80,000 190,000 250,000 Average Size 120 210 280 Rockwell
Rental Range 150,000 200,000 300,000 Average Size 200 260 330 Fort Bonifacio
Rental Range 85,000 200,000 300,000 Average Size 130 200 300
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research ain PHP per month bin square meters
RETAILSupply
Metro Manila retail stock is unchanged in 1Q 2013 at 5.3 million sq m. However, over the remainder of the year, 300,000 sq m will be completed, the highest level of new construction since 2006. Moving forward, retail developers are expected to introduce new formats and configurations, given the increasing competition and expanding market size.
SM Megamall and Venice Piazza are currently undergoing expansion with the aim of attracting heavier foot traffic. Both are set to open in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, BPO-retail integrated facilities continue to surface, such as Anonas LRT City Center in Quezon City which is slated for completion in 2Q 2013. Other major developments such as SM Aura (133,800 sq m GLA) and Century City Mall (17,000 sq m GLA) have been positioned to cater to broader profiles across residential and commercial communities. These retail formats have served as major components in integrated developments, a trend that will most likely continue.
Overall, developers are highly confident with their expansion plans due to strong local demand backed by a robust economy. In Metro Manila alone, roughly over 800,000 sq m of retail space are currently in the pipeline and are targeted to be delivered within the next three years.
Demand
Vacancy rates in both super-regional and regional malls decreased to 2.15% in 1Q 2013 with an occupancy rate of 97.8% from the 97.4% in the previous quarter. However, compared to 1Q 2012, occupancy rates have been slightly down by 1.14%, an outcome of the recent mall expansions.
With the delivery of over 300,000 sq m of new retail space this year, vacancy rates in all of Metro Manila will increase to over 10%. The increase however is seen to be temporary as these new retail shopping centers stabilize, backed by the expected strong consumer spending driving higher occupancy levels. Higher retail occupancy levels are also supported by the growing BPO and tourism industries, which drive the purchase of consumer goods.
Rates Rental rates in Ayala Center increased by a marginal rate of 0.6% to an average of PHP1,278 per sq m. Meanwhile, rental rates in Ortigas Center improved by 0.5% to average PHP1,100 per sq m. Rental rates in both districts are projected to grow between 5 and 6% in the next 12 months.
METRO MANILA
COMPARATIVE RETAIL VACANCY RATES (%)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012
SUPER-REGIONAL 2.06 2.54
REGIONAL 2.41 2.77
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Ayala Center Retail Rent
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
0%
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5%
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550
850
1,150
1,450
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(Makati) Monthly Rent (Makati) YoY Increase (RHS)
Ortigas Center Retail Rent
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
0%
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550
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1,150
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(Ortigas) Monthly Rent (Ortigas) YoY Increase (RHS)
METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUMSCOMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M)
LOCATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY)MAKATI CBD 81,650 - 165,870 80,050 - 155,850 2.00 89,250 - 170,000 7.32ROCKWELL 103,020 -153,300 101,000 - 150,440 1.94 115,865 - 162,695 8.68BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 93,585 - 149,415 91,750 - 145,630 2.37 103,280 - 157,020 7.12
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
P. 8 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | HOTEL & LEISURE
Spending Indicators
Owing to a robust economy and increase in purchasing capacity, Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HCFE) grew 6.1% in 2012 versus the previous year. Nearly half of the expenditures were allotted to food and non-alcoholic beverages. Major growth contributors were the spending used for Health (+11.7%); Recreation & Culture (+10.9%); and Restaurant & Hotels (+10.5%). With the sustained increase in the level of remittances backed by strong consumer confidence, spending will likewise expand moving forward. Based on the latest consumer expectations survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, outlook on consumer index is to improve in the second quarter and the year ahead to 7.8% and 18.5%, respectively.
Consumer Spending Growth Rate (%)
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
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2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
RETAIL STOCKMETRO MANILA (SQ M)
CLASSIFICATION 1Q 2013 4Q 2012 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 2014F % CHANGE (YoY) SUPER-REGIONAL 3,080,544 3,080,544 0.00 3,338,414 8.37REGIONAL 1,030,100 1,030,100 0.00 1,030,100 0.00DISTRICT / NEIGHBOURHOOD 1,188,289 1,188,289 0.00 1,230,984 3.59ALL LEVELS 5,298,933 5,298,933 0.00 5,599,498 5.67
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
P. 9 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | RETAIL
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PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2013 | THE KNOWLEDGE