Report on World Merchant Fleet and World Trade Patrizia ... · Shipping market Fleet Capacity...
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Report on World Merchant Fleet and World Trade Patrizia Kern-Ferretti 10/1/2012 1 Chairman IUMI Facts and Figures Committee Head Marine Continental Europe @Swiss Re Corporate Solutions
Transcript of Report on World Merchant Fleet and World Trade Patrizia ... · Shipping market Fleet Capacity...
Report on World Merchant Fleet and World Trade Patrizia Kern-Ferretti
10/1/2012 1
Chairman IUMI Facts and Figures Committee Head Marine Continental Europe @Swiss Re Corporate Solutions
Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members
• Javier Alonso - Spain
• Darren Farr - U.K.
• Philip Graham - U.K.
• Vivian Ho - Hong Kong
• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland, Chairman
• Henry Newman - U.S.A.
• Erika Schoch - Alsum
• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. and Vice Chairman
• Massimo Spadoni - Italy
• David Matcham - U.K.
• Lars Lange - Germany
10/1/2012 2
Agenda
10/1/2012 3
Update on committee work
Macroeconomic environment
Shipping market
Conclusion
Facts & Figures Country data collection 2011 - 2010 Premium
10/1/2012 4
Reported premium volume 25.3 billion USD Estimated premium volume 30 billion USD
Facts & Figures Country data collection 2012 – 2011 Premium
10/1/2012 5
Premium volume of all countries covered in 2011: 31.9 billion USD
Report of the F&F Committee Update on Committee work
• data collection September 2012
• Latin America Statistics September 2012
• Facts Sheets September 2012
• Repair Index Follow up IUMI Website September 2012
• Cargo Index Follow up IUMI Website September 2012
• Cargo presentation September 2012
• Major claims database 2013?
10/1/2012 6
10/1/2012 7
Agenda
Update on committee work
Macroeconomic environment
Shipping market
Outlook
Macroeconomic environment
10/1/2012 8
Global economy has slowed; policy easing underway and more stimulus may be required to kick-start growth.
Recessionary forces in Europe have
intensified
Emerging economies generally faring
better than developed
Economic recovery in US continues
Macroeconomic environment
Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)
10/1/2012 9
Manufacturing activity has weakened globally through 2012.
Source: Bloomberg
Macroeconomic environment
Industrial Production Index
10/1/2012 10
Weakness in Europe impacting on economic activity in emerging economies.
Source: Datastream
Macroeconomic environment
Real GDP growth rates by region (forecasts)
10/1/2012 11
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP growth
United States
Euroland
United Kingdom
Japan
South & East Asia
World
Brazil
China
India
Pace of recovery likely to remain modest and significant near-term downside risks.
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Macroeconomic environment
Inflation (CPI) forecasts
10/1/2012 12
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CPI inflation
United States
Euroland
United Kingdom
Japan
Brazil
China
India
Inflation likely to remain well contained (despite recent food price rises).
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Macroeconomic environment
Export Volume Index
10/1/2012 13
Gradually showing up in moderating export volume growth
Source: CPB (Netherland Bureau for Economic policy analysis
Macroeconomic environment
Volume of world merchandise exports
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Export volume Trend (1990-2007)
1990=100 Export volumes
GDP is to slow further which will keep the level of world exports well below pre-crisis trend
Source: WTO Secretariat
10/1/2012 15
Update on committee work
Macroeconomic environment
Shipping market
Outlook
Agenda
Shipping market
Fleet Capacity
10/1/2012 16
0
4'000
8'000
12'000
16'000
20'000
24'000
28'000
32'000
36'000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
*
DW
T
0
250
500
750
1'000
1'250
1'500
1'750
2'000
2'250
No
. of V
es
se
ls
Tanker Fleet Bulkcarrier Fleet Containership/MPPs Fleets Deliveries Scrapping
*2012 data is year-to-date.
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
Shipping market
Value of Newbuildings (by Vessel Type)
10/1/2012 17
Value of Newbuildings (by Country/Region of Build)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ta
nk
ers
Bu
lke
rs
Co
nta
ine
r/
MP
P Ga
s
Oth
ers
US
$ b
illi
on
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
Shipping Market
Demolition as % of Tanker and Bulker Fleets (in terms of DWT)
10/1/2012 18
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
(p)
% o
f Fle
et
Tankers Bulkcarriers
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
Shipping Market
Average Age of the World Fleet 2000-2012
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10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Ja
n 0
0
Ju
l 0
0
Ja
n 0
1
Ju
l 0
1
Ja
n 0
2
Ju
l 0
2
Ja
n 0
3
Ju
l 0
3
Ja
n 0
4
Ju
l 0
4
Ja
n 0
5
Ju
l 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ju
l 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ju
l 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ju
l 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ju
l 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ju
l 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ju
l 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ju
l 1
2
Av
era
ge
Ag
e
Total Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP Gas Others
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
Shipping Market
Freight Rates
10/1/2012 20
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012
Baltic Panama Index Baltic Supramax Index Capesize
... and freight rates remain low. Source: Bloomberg
Shipping Market
ClarkSea Index
10/1/2012 21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5520
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$'00
0/da
y
level recovered as economy improved, but has slipped back in 2011 and first half of 2012
Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012
Shipping Market
Baltic Dry Index
10/1/2012 22
*The Baltic Dry Index is a benchmark for global freight costs.
cost of shipping bulk commodities remains very low Source: Datastream
Shipping Market
10/1/2012 23
• Freight rates are still suffering and are slightly below historical average rate due to the higher cost basis for shipowners
• Current newbuildings orderbook still suggests significant capacity to come on stream in the future even if there's a considerable uncertainty (possible cancellations and delays)
• Bulkcarriers average age dropped from approximately 14 years on January 2010 to 10.5 years on July 2012
• Vessels' demolition rate is still high compared to 2011 for both tankers and bulk carriers
• Shipping market uncertainty remains
linked to macro-economic scenario
10/1/2012 24
Update on committee work
Macroeconomic environment
Shipping market
Outlook
Agenda
Outlook for the marine insurance industry
10/1/2012 25
weak and often negative growth
risk of inflation
low interest rate environment
further instability in the Euro zone
10/1/2012 26
Conclusion
THANK YOU
10/1/2012 27
Special thanks to LMIU, Clarkson Research Service and Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting for their statistical Input
