Renewables: The True CostsIRENA’s Data and Analysis

Michael Taylor and Andrei IlasIRENA, IITC, Bonn

The Energy Sector is Being Transformed

A virtuous cycle is unlocking the economic, social and environmental benefits of renewables

The need for cost analysis

Rapid transformation poses challenges for policy makers:- Rapid deployment and high learning rates

mean costs can change rapidly- Changes in supply and demand can be rapid- Systematic data to support policy not the norm- Result can often be poor/inefficient policy

The need for cost analysis

- Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy.

- Lack of objective and up-to-date data from trusted source is a barrier

- Decisions often based on old data and opinions - IRENA aims to become the source for cost data:

- Assist governments to pursue more ambitious policies- Fill a significant information gap- Provide powerful communication messages about the

competitiveness of renewable energy

The IRENA cost database

Power: data for 9000 utility-scale projects and 750,000 small-scale solar PV installationsSmaller dataset on biofuels/EVsPower database is concentrated in non-OECD countries, where there is more publicly available information (e.g. multi-lateral financing, development projects, etc.)

The IRENA cost database

A range of variables are collected with the aim of calculating levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and other measures

The IRENA cost database

Power generation database, by technology:

The IRENA cost database

Power generation database, by location:

Additional data used to ensure cover of all major markets

IRENA cost analysis

2012 2013 2015

IRENA cost analysis

Contributions to REthinking

Analysis and datafor REmap 2030

New webpages and launching Costing Alliance

2014

IRENA cost analysis

Renewable PowerGeneration Costs in 2014

IRENA cost analysis

Highlights:- The relentless improvement in

competitiveness continues- Renewables now competing with fossil fuels- Integrating variable renewables doesn’t

change the conclusions- Future cost reductions will be more

challenging, policy driven

Competitiveness

Integration costs

Solar PV costs

Technology improvements and cost reductions = lower LCOE

Wind energy technology

Economies of scale in wind energy = lower LCOE

Costing alliance mechanism:- Based on sharing real world RE project

data, confidentially with IRENA- Supports higher quality analysis- Allows IRENA to deepen the analysis- Supports evidence based decision making

and successful deployment of renewable energy technologieshttp://costing.irena.org/irena-renewable-costing-alliance.aspx

IRENA cost analysis

Forthcoming analyses:- PV parity indicators- Global wind learning curve- RE power cost reduction potentials- Renewable energy and energy security- Solar PV cost reduction potential in Africa

For more information, see:

http://www.irena.org/costs http://resourceirena.irena.org