Renewable Energy in Pakistan IrfanAfzalMirza

8/10/2019 Renewable Energy in Pakistan IrfanAfzalMirza

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RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PAKISTAN: OPPORTUNITIESAND CHALLENGES

Irfan Afzal Mirza*,Sana Ahmed** and

M. Shahid Khalil***

* Director / CEO, Renewable Resources (Pvt.) Ltd., Islamabad, Pakistan. Email: [email protected]** Manager Project, Renewable Resources (Pvt.) Ltd., Islamabad, Pakistan. *** University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila

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ABSTRACT

1. INTRODUCTION

Most of the countries around the world have realizedthat the key to attaining and maintaining prosperityand sovereignty is having independence and self-reliance in access to and subsequent use of energy. Toaddress the global challenges, the energy systemneeds to undergo a transformation from fossil-fuelst o r e ne wa b le e n er g y a n d e n er g y e ff i ci e nt technologies. Pakistan has a huge potential forharnessing renewable energy and its share in theelectricity mix has to be increased to achieve energysecurity. Security issues and circular debt

are the key challenges that need to beaddressed to promote on-grid renewable energythrough private sector. Around 38 % of the totalPakistani population remains without access toelectricity. Fifty four per cent of the rural populationcurrently has no access to electricity, forcing them tolive a sub-standard life of poverty and social inequity.Microfinance and other innovative financial tools needto be evolved to promote rural electrification throughrenewable energies.

in thecountry

Economies around the world are facing challenges ofhigh energy demand to sustain the economic growthand development. This comes with a dire fact that the

conventional sources of energy the fossil fuelsare depleting. The environmental impacts of theseconventional energy sources are also alarming. Thelarge gap between demand and supply of electricity,increasing costs of imported fossil-fuels andworsening air pollution, demand an urgent search forenergy sources that are cost-effective, reliable andenvironment-friendly. Consequently, there has been alot of recent interest worldwide in developingrenewable energy sources.

The current energy crisis in the country has taught usmany lessons and one of the keys is to utilizeindigenous sources of energy. Pakistan s electricity

mix is heavily tilted towards thermal and the country ismaking 33.6 % of the total electricity from oil (HDIP,2011). Through this paper, renewable energy ishighlighted as a potential resource that can be tappedimmediately to overcome the current energy crisesand warrants energy security. Ninety-seven millionpeople live in rural areas, comprising 7 millionhouseholds. According to a report published by theInternational Energy Agency, 38 % of the Pakistani

population remain without access to electricity (IEA,2011). Fifty four per cent of the rural population

currently has no access to electricity, forcing them tolive a sub-standard life of poverty and social inequity.

As a result, development of the country is suffering asthese areas possess abundance of resources andworkforce that is currently disengaged from themainstream. Use of renewable energy, due to itsmanifold advantages of having positive cross-cuttingeffects and impact over various strata of the economyand society can play a vital role in mainstreaming thislarge resource and help provide sustainability, andsocial and economic equity among the targeted ruralpopulation.

At this juncture, we are encountering the worstelectricity crisis in the history of Pakistan resulting inextended load-shedding to an extent that it virtuallysuspends social life. The situation has further forcedthe Government of Pakistan to take decisions likeearly market shutdowns, power cut-off to industry, andtwo holidays per week thus affecting all businessactivities. In the short term, we put all our eggs in the oilbased rental power projects. It is nearly impossible atthis time to bear the cost of electricity both by theconsumers and the government (circular debt issue)

because of the existing oil-based projects, which couldlead to further complications after rental projects with alittle price hike of oil in the international market. Thecountry needs to have an out-of-the-box thinking toutilize its indigenous resources, like hydro, coal andrenewable energies.

Unlike India, with an electricity mix based onindigenous sources and the share of oil-basedgeneration of electricity is less than one per cent. Theelectricity mix of Pakistan is heavily tilted towardsimported oil (Figure-1). Any oil price-hike in the

international market badly impacts Pakistan selectricity generation rendering current circular debtissue even more critical.

Since the advent of the new millennium, the worldin a lot of ways; important among them

are the menace of climate-change and the ever-

2. C UR RE NT S IT UAT IO N O F E NE RG Y I NPAKISTAN

2.1 Electricity Mix of Pakistan

3. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

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A scientific journal of COMSATS SCIENCE VISION Vol.16 and Vol. 17 (January 2010 to December 2011)


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Renewable Energy in Pakistan: Opportunities and Challenges

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changing energy scenario in an increasingly volatilegeo-political environment. Both the developed and thedeveloping countries have realized that the key toattaining and maintaining prosperity and sovereigntyis having independence and self-reliance in access toand subsequent use of energy. Coupled with the

responsibility of keeping the climate-change undercheck for the sake of the future of our world, this hasled to an all-time high emphasis on utilization ofrenewable energy resources world over. Global shareof renewable energy in the energy consumption of theworld is shown in Figure-2 .(REN21, 2010)


Figure-1: Electricity Mix of Pakistan

Source:Pakistan Energy Yearbook by HDIP, 2011

Figure-2: Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2008

Source:Global Status Report by REN21, 2010


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Irfan Afzal Mirza, Sana Ahmed and M. Shahid Khalil

By early 2010, policy targets for renewable energy atthe national level existed in at least 85 countriesworldwide, including all 27 European Union MemberStates. Many national targets are for shares of

electricity production, typically 5 to 30 per cent, butrange from 2 per cent to 90 per cent. Other targets arefor shares of total primary or final energy supply,specific installed capacities of various technologies, ortotal amounts of energy-production, including heat,from renewable energy resources. Targets also existfor biofuels in many countries. Many historical targetshave aimed for the 2010 2012 timeframe, althoughtargets aiming for 2020 and beyond have emerged inincreasing numbers in recent years. In 2008, all the 27EU countries confirmed national targets for 2020,following a 2007 EU-wide target of 20 per cent of finalenergy by 2020.

Examples of new national targets among developedcountries includeAustralia (20 per cent of electricity by2020), Ireland (500 MW of ocean power by 2020),Japan (14 GW of solar PV by 2020), South Korea (11per cent of primary energy by 2030) and the USA (25per cent by 2025).An increasingnumberof developingcountries have prescribed energy related targets, andas a group, now account for over half the countriesworldwide with such targets.

The Renewables 2007 Global Status Report counted22 developing countries with targets, and this figureexpanded to 45 countries by early 2010. The national

plans of developing countries also reflect increasingambition in targeted amounts. China aims for 15 percent of final energy consumption from renewables by2020, even as total energy demand continues to growat nearly double-digit annual rates. China met its 2010renewable energy target of 10 per cent of primaryenergy two years early, in 2008. The country s mostrecent draft development plan targets 300 GW ofhydro, 150 GW of wind, 30 GW of biomass, and 20 GWof solar PV by 2020.

In 2009, India set a target of 20 GW for solar powerproduction by 2022 (including 1 GW of off-grid solarPV by 2017). Brazil aims to maintain or increase its

existing shares of total energy (48 per cent) andelectricity (85 percent) from renewable through 2030.

To address the challenges mentioned above, theenergy system needs to undergo a transformation,from fossil-fuels to renewable energy and energyefficient technologies. The critical need for a powerful,

4. FORMATION OF IRENA

international actor that provides support andassistance to transform the energy system has beenheralded worldwide. Thus, in January 2009, IRENAthe International Renewable Energy Agency was

established to bridge the institutional gap. Mandatedby governments worldwide, IRENA aims at becomingthe driving force in promoting a rapid transitiontowards the widespread and sustainable use ofrenewable energy. Acting as a global voice forrenewable energies, IRENA will provide practicaladvice and support for both industrialized anddeveloping countries. Since its creation, IRENA hasbeen recognized as a viable global organization.IRENA must fulfill high expectations, as morecountries are expected to join and support its work tomeet the challenges that lie ahead .

Located in the sunny belt, is lucky to havelong sunshine hours and high insolation levels and isideally located to take advantage of solar energytechnologies. Solar mapping conducted by NationalRenewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USA, incollaboration with USAID, has indicated a potential of2.9 million MW in Pakistan (NREL, 2012), as shown inFigure-3.

This energy source is widely distributed andabundantly available in the country. The mean globalirradiation falling on horizontal surface is about 200-250 watt per per day. This amounts to about 1500-3,000 sunshine hours and 1.9 - 2.3 MWh per m peryear. Balochistan province of Pakistan is particularlyrich in solar energy. It has an average daily globalinsolation of 19 to 20 MJ/ per day with annual meansunshine duration of 8 to 8.5 hours a day and thesevalues are among the highest in the world (Khalil,Khan and Mirza, 2005). For daily global radiation up to23 MJ/ , 24 (80%) consecutive days are available inthis area. Such conditions are ideal for PV and othersolar energyapplications.

Pakistan can make use of this abudant and widelydistributed solar energy for improving the socio-economic conditions of the people living in remoteareas and to reduce the poverty level. It is calculatedthat approx. 40,000 remote villages will be electrifiedthrough solar energy. The provinces of Sindh andBalochistan are ideal for utilization of solar energy. InBalochistan, 77 % of the population is living in the rural

(www.irena.org)

Pakistan

m

m

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5. POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES INPAKISTAN

5.1 Solar Energy

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impact can be obtained by exploiting the above-mentioned segments.

In the year 2002, Pakistan Meteorological Department(PMD) launched a campaign for the assessment ofw in d r es ou rc es i n t he s ou th o f P ak is ta n.M e te o ro l og i ca l m a st s w e re i n st a ll e d w i thanemometers at 10 m and 30 m heights (Figure-4).

Analysis of the data gathered through these mastsconfirmed the presence of a logical wind corridor incoastal belt of Sindh province with wind speedsaveraging more than 7 m/s at a height of 80 m. Furtheranalysis of this wind regime showed a promisingexploitable wind potential of more than 50,000 MWonly at Gharo Keti Bandar corridor of Sindh Province

(Qamar, 2009).

National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) ofUSA under the USAID assistance programme in 2007has carried out the wind resource study of Pakistanand developed a meso-scale map of Pakistan,showing the wind speed potential available at 50 mheight. NREL study has also confirmed the availabilityof wind resource in Sindh. As per the wind resourcemap of Pakistan developed by NREL of USA, incollaboration with Alternative Energy Development

5.2 Wind Energy

Board (AEDB) and USAID, Pakistan has a potential ofmore than 300,000 MW of wind energy in whole of thecountry (Mirza, Khan and Memon, 2010) (Figure-5).

As mentioned above, more than 40,000 villages inPakistan are not connected with the national grid andmost of the remote villages in the south can beelectrified through micro wind turbines. It is estimatedthat more than 5,000 villages can be electrifiedthrough wind energy in Sindh, Balochistan andNorthern Areas. So far, 5 villages have been electrifiedusing micro wind turbines by AEDB, Pakistan Councilfor Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET) ando t he r g o ve r nm e nt a l a n d n o n- g ov e rn m en t alorganizations in Pakistan*.

The potential of only micro-hydro is discussed in thispaper. The northern part of the country is rich in hydropower resources. Other than small hydro power plants

, there is a large numberof sites in the high terrain, where natural andmanageable waterfalls are abundantly available. Therecoverable potential in micro-hydropower (MHP) upto 100 kW is roughly estimated to be 300 MW onperennial water falls in northern Pakistan. Thepopulation in these areas is distributed in thin clusters

5.3 Hydropower

(capacity greater than 1 MW)

Figure-5: Wind Map of Pakistan


* Theauthor hasnotbeen able toget thedataas towhetherthesewindturbinesare still producingelectricityor not.



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and is located far from physical infrastructures. Suchremote population can greatly benefit from renewableenergy sources. Besides, there is an immensepotential for exploiting water falls in the canal

networks, particularly in the Punjab province ofPakistan, where low head high discharge exists onmany canals. The potential is estimated to be around350 MW. The Government of Punjab has recentlystarted exploiting this potential through the privatesector. Punjab Power Development Board (PPDB)has started facilitating various projects of around 100MWsin Punjab.

Pakistan also has commenced development of MicroHydro Kaplan Turbine in a local industry for beneficialutilization of available low head in the canal system ofPakistan. A total of 228 run-of-river type plants with atotal capacity of 3 MW have so far been installed in theKhyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. Theseplants not only provide electricity for light at night butare also used to run small industrial units, such as flourmills for wheat and maize thrashing, and cottonginning during the day time when electricity is notrequired for lighting.

Millions of tons of solid biomass comprised of cottonand wheat stalks, rice husk, corn cobs and other cropresidues are produced in Pakistan annually. Wheatstalk is used as feed for the livestock. Except for use ofthis resource by rural households, mainly for cooking,the biomass is not being used for power-generation ona wide scale. Some companies use solid biomassresidues to burn in boilers to generate steam for powergeneration. Burning biomass is not efficient from anenergy conversion point of view. World is now usingnew technologies like gasification that uses controlledconditions of temperature and oxygen level to convertthe original biomass feedstock into producer gas orwood gas (if the feedstock is wood) and more heat

content of the biomass is captured.

There is a huge potential of generating electricity frombiomass in Pakistan. Only the sugar industry has a

potential of producing more than 1,000 MWs ofelectricity from bagasse. Private Power InfrastructureBoard (PPIB) of Government of Pakistan has alreadyannounced a cogeneration policy for the fast trackdevelopment of electricity from . Expertssuggest that biomass can also play a vital role inreviving SMEs for fulfilling their requirements ofelectricity and heat if they start installing their ownbiomass projects in the 500 kW to 5 MW range (PPIB,2008). Moreover, being clean and renewable, it will

5.4 Biomass

bagasse

also contribute towards environmental protection,sustenance of ecosystem and conservation of thebiodiversity.

In addition to the sources mentioned above, Pakistanis also blessed with the following other renewableenergysources:

Biogas;Geo-thermal;Tidal / wave; andBio-fuels Biodiesel and Ethanol.

Introduction of renewable energies at a large scale for

both on-grid and off-grid applications in Pakistan havemany issues and challenges. These are listed below:

Success stories need to be created which can bereplicated.Integrated policy and attractive FITs feed intariffs are required for each technology to beexploited,like wind, solar, hydro,etc.Circular debt and the ability of the utility to pay isone of thebiggest challenges at this time.Investment capacity of the local banks to lend theprojects is also a big issue as the foreign lendersare reluctant to come to Pakistan in the currentgeo-political scenario.Security situation of the country is also a key threatat this time. Foreign investors are reluctant tocome to Pakistan.R&D and adoption of appropriate technology isalso a key challenge under t he cur rentcircumstances. No university is geared up to takethis role.Capacity issues are there in public sectorinstitutions, private sector and also amongfinancial institutions.

According to a report published by the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA, 2011), 38 % people in Pakistanremain without access to electricity. More than half ofthe rural population currently has no access toelectricity, forcing them to live a sub-standard life ofpoverty and social inequity.

Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of

5.5 Other Renewable Energy Sources

6. ISSUESANDCHALLENGES

6.1 On-Grid

6.2 Off-Grid




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Pakistan estimates indicate that there are over 40,000villages across the country that cannot be providedelectricity as it would not be technically andeconomically viable to extend the national grid to the

rural areas. Out of these 40,000 villages, 6,968 havebeen identified in Balochistan. Renewable energy canbe effectively used for sustainable development andpoverty alleviation in these areas by enhancingsustainable livelihood opportunities. Rural demandsfor electricity pertain to, and are not limited to, lighting,heating & cooking, clean drinking water, agro-industries, small commercial and manufacturinge s ta b li s hm e nt s a n d p r od u ct i on u s es , e . g. ,w a te r /i r ri g a ti o n p u mp i n g, c r op p r oc e ss i n g,refrigeration, and motive power.

Following key challenges are there for introduction ofrenewable energyin off-grid areas:

Lack of information prevents the outreach in ruralareas in Pakistan.There is very limited informationa va i la bl e o n b ot h d em an d a nd s up pl y.Base-line information about the energy needsassessment of people living in the rural off-gridareas is not available. There is limited knowledgeavailable to the potential investors/technologysuppliers/microfinance institutions about thepotential clients and their needs, which is requiredto take initiatives to serve in these areas.Also, thepeople living in these areas or the clients areunaware of the resources where they can tap into

solve their energy-related problems due to poorphysical and social infrastructure.Operations & Maintenance issues as well asunavailability of trained technicians in suchremote areas.Risk Perception because it is a new product for anew market alongwith the high cost of renewableenergy equipment is also a concern. Most of thepeople living in the off-grid areas are at or belowthe poverty borderline and have insufficientcapacities to pay their electricity bills.Unstable, volatile and explosive law and ordersituation in both Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa andBalochistan posesa serious challenge.

Both the developed and the developing countries haverealized that the key to attaining and maintainingprosperity and sovereignty is having independenceand self-reliance in access to and subsequent use ofenergy. Coupled with the responsibility of keeping theclimate change under check for the sake of the future

7. CONCLUSIONS

of our world; this has led to an all-time high emphasison utilization of renewable energy resources worldwide.

Perhaps one of the most relevant and uniqueapplication of renewable energy is its cross-cuttingrelevance with the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs). In particular, the following MDGs link the roleof Renewable Energy to social equity and sustainabledevelopment:

MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and HungerMDG 7: EnsureEnvironmental Sustainability

Integrate the principles of sustainabledevelopment into country policies and programmes;reverse loss of environmental resources.

Pakistan is currently facing a two-pronged crisis ofthreat to its Energy Security and an alarmingly lowHuman Development Index (HDI). Effective use ofrenewable energy can successfully address boththese issues by improving the quality of life of theu n d e r - de v e l o p e d p o p u l a t io n , e c o n o m i cempowerment of the socially deprived and contributeto achieving theMDGs.

Opportunities exist for investors, developers,manufacturers, lenders and other players to exploitthe Pakistani renewable energy market. TheGovernment has the opportunity to use renewable

energies to overcome the existing energy crises andcreate job opportunities. The key challenge for thegovernment is to give confidence to investors underthe current security scenario, along with an assuranceto address the circular debt issue for on-grid powerprojects.

Pakistan s government has to create an enablingenvironment for off-grid electrification of villages andneeds to create success stories. Microfinance modelsused in Bangladesh for renewable energy villageelectrification can be replicated to create successstories. Renewable energy can be effectively used forsustainable development and poverty alleviation in

these areas by enhancing sustainable livelihoodopportunities.

The potential is huge and renewableenergy can play avital role to achieve energy security, supplement theon-grid electricity and change the lives of people livingin rural areas. Out-of-the-box thinking and innovativesolutions need to be evolved to create success stories.

Target:




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REFERENCES

HDIP, 2011. Pakistan Energy Yearbook. [pdf]HDIP. Available at:

Khalil, S. M., Khan, N., A and Mirza, A., I., 2005.Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board,Renewable Energy in Pakistan: Status andTrends.Available at PPIB, 2008. National Policy for Power Co-Generation by Sugar Industry and Guidelines forI n v e s t o r s . A v a i l a b l e a t :< h t t p : / / w w w . p p i b . g o v . p k / C o -Generation%20Policy%202008.pdf>

IEA, 2011. World Energy Outlook. Available at:

Mirza, A., I., Khan, A., N., and Memon, N., 2010.Development of benchmark wind speed for Gharoand Jhimpir, Pakistan. , 35(3),pp. 576 582.

NREL, 2012. Pakistan Resource Maps andToolkit. Available at: Qamar, Z.C., 2009. An investigation on windpower potential of Gharo-Sindh, Pakistan.

6(11).

Renewable Energy

Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,REN 21, 2010. Renewables 2010 Global StatusReport. [Pdf] Paris: REN21 Secretariat.

Available at:



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