Renewable Energies In Mena Region
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Transcript of Renewable Energies In Mena Region
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region:
Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision and
Export to Europe
Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
IFEED
Project Partners
German Aerospace Center (Germany)
National Energy Research Center (Jordan)
University of Aden, (Yemen)
University of Sana’a, (Yemen)
University of Bahrain, (Bahrain)
Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco)
Intern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany)
Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany)
Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany)
Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany)
House of Water and Environment (Palestine)
Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya)
Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco)
University of Bremen (Germany)
New Energy Algeria (Algeria)
New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt)
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany)
Honorat Satoguina
MASDAR (Abu Dhabi)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies
Scandinavia
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
South-Eastern Europe
Western Asia
North Africa
Arabian Peninsula
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Parameters considered in the analyses
! Annual electricity demand
! Annual load curve
! Available fossile and renewable resources
! Existing power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetime
! Cost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario)
! Maximum production growth rates of RE industries
! Existing grid infrastructure
! 100% power availability
! Peaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacity
! Sustainability criteria
! Opportunities of financing
! Policies and energy economic boundary conditions
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
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2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Gro
ss E
lectr
icit
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n T
Wh
/a
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
Malta
Italy
Greece
Tunisia
Morocco
Libya
Egypt
Algeria
Yemen
UAE
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Oman
Lebanon
Kuwait
Jordan
Israel
Iraq
Iran
Cyprus
Bahrain
Scenario Closing the
Gap / High Efficiency
Historical Data
First Slowdown:
Efficiency Gains
& Liberalisation
Second Slowdown:
Demand Stabilisation
Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries Switzerland
Norway
Iceland
Bosnia-Herzegowina
Serbia & Montenegro
Romania
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Sweden
Croatia
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Slowenia
Slowac Republic
Czech Republic
Poland
Italy
Ireland
United Kingdom
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
Portugal
Spain
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Gro
ss E
lectr
icity
Con
su
mp
tio
nT
Wh
/y
Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
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2000
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3500
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4500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctr
icity P
rod
uctio
n in
TW
h/y
Deficit
Old Plants
Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and
deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European
countries analysed within TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Biomass (1)
Wind (50)
Geothermal (1)
Hydropower (50)
Solar (250)
A solar power plant of the
size of Lake Nasser
equals the total Middle
East oil production
Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA
In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km! /y)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany
WORLD
EU-25GER
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Planta Solar 10 MW, SevilleSEGS 350 MW, California
Novatec
Lorca
Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix
Solar Thermal
Power Plants
Nevada Solar I, 64 MW
MAN/SPG
Almeria
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants
Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Year
So
lar
Ele
ctr
icit
yC
ost
[ct/
kW
h]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Insta
lled
Cap
acit
y[G
W]
SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0
2000
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10000
12000
14000
16000
Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050
Ele
ctr
icit
y in
TW
h/y
Solar
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Wave/Tide
Desalination
MENA
Europe
Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA
> 630000
?
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance
Solar Power
Transfer by:
Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line
Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 %
Cost very high high low
Adaptation to
Consumers
(Transformer)
has to be
transformed to
AC first
directly
transformable
has to be
transformed to
AC first
Over Sea
Transport
by tankers or
pipelines
not over 30 km standard
solution
Visibility Impact very low high low
Materials and
Emissions
moderate moderate low
Preferred
Application
eventually fuel
for transport
regional and
local power
long distance
power transfer
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy Link
Using HVDC Power Transmission Technology
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection
3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor
350
45
245
31
134
16
42
5
Investment CSP
Billion " HVDC
50 x 503600 x 1.0
40 x 403600 x 0.7
30 x 303600 x 0.4
15 x 153100 x 0.1
Land Area CSP
km x km HVDC
70047023060Transfer TWh/y
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Capacity GW
2050204020302020Year
Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 *
* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fre
sh
wa
ter
Defi
cit
[b
illi
on
m!/
y]
Bahrain
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Oman
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Palestine
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Expected Water Deficits by Country
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination
MED
Solar Field Storage
Power
Plant
Water Power
fuel
solar
heat
heat
Combined Heat & Power
RO
Solar Field Storage
Power
Plant
Water Power
fuel
solar
heat
Power Only
Solar Field Storage
MED
fuel
solar
heat
Water Power
grid
Heat Only
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Co
st
of
Wate
r ["
/m!]
CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix
Projected cost of water (CoW) from reverse osmosis plants
using conventionally generated power or solar electricity
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined
with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas
Energy
+
Water
+
Income
=
Sustainable
economic
development in
arid regions
(artist view created with
Google Earth)
HVDC Link
AC Grid
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Po
we
r D
em
an
d a
nd
Su
pply
[T
Wh/y
]
Year
Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENA
New Plants MENA Total Demand MENA Total Demand EU
Electricity and fresh water provision in MENA
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
! Within 15 years, a well balanced electricity mix may lead to less expensive
electricity than business as usual. Domestic sources reduce the import of
fuels.
! Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA can
provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power.
! The most efficient and economic way to transfer electricity from MENA to
Europe is via high voltage direct current transmission lines, adding about
1.5-2 cents/kWh to the local generating cost.
! By 2050, 700 TWh/y solar electricity could be imported from 20 locations in
MENA at a cost of 5 c/kWh, providing about 15 % of European electricity
demand.
! To establish and maintain such a trans-national HVDC electricity grid,
strong political support will be required.
Conclusions
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen
for more information look at
www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp