Regional and territorial modelling for urban

planning

A tool to foster cohesion in Europe

Carlo Lavalle and the LUISA Team JRC/IES Sustainability Assessments Unit ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa

The Issue

• European policies call for growth, integration and cohesion

• Visions and Targets are mostly set at macro (aggregated) scale (EU or

National)

• Ultimate implementation undertaken by regions, cities, …

The Challenge

• Can modelling provide insights and advice by

• Explaining consequences and propose opportunities

• Determining critical factors and thresholds

• Providing hints on the best (spatial) scale for interventions

Key challenges (growth, sustainability, access to essential services …) can only be addressed with a territorially dis-aggregated approach.

Economy

Demography

Policy

Activities Assets Investments

Local impacts Trends projections Options and scenarios

Prague, 2010-2050 LUISA Ref. Scenario

LUISA: Urban Analysis at European scale

Weighted Urban Proliferation (WUP)

5

Conceived to contribute to Territorial Impact Assessment of EU policies;

More than one stand-alone model. It is a platform of inter-linked data,

processes, models and indicators; Based upon direct linkages with

macro/geographic-economic and bio-physical models

Beyond a conventional land cover/use model. New approach towards activity-

based modelling:

Endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities

Endogenous modelling of effects of infrastructure improvements

Endogenous spatial economic breakdown of sectoral employment and GVA growth trends

LUISA : Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability

Assessment Modelling Platform

Land requirements from different sectors are

estimated given exogenous macro-drivers for

resources, commodities and energy

.

ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHY AGRICULTURE ENERGY

Demand Module

Demand settings

Dynamic Land Functions

Territorial and thematic Indicators

Land-use based indicators: • Land-use/cover maps • Change hotspots • Regional changes • Land use intensity/abandonment

Thematic indicators: • Resources Supply / Demand • Urban/Regional Profiles • Regulatory Ecosystem Services • Sectoral employment & GVA

Resolves the spatial allocation of resources and

activities at fine pixel scale, taking into

consideration competition for land and land

suitability. Projected Land Use Change

Biophysical suitability, neighborhood, policy and regulatory constraints and targets, conversion costs, …

Dynamic Spatial Allocation Dynamic Population

Current land use

Projected Population map Projected Accessibility map

6

Scenario

Setting

(socio-

economic)

Implementati

on of

Policy options

Impact

analysis

Accessib

ility Nr. of

people

How does LUISA work?

LUISA: Indicators of territorial performances

Derived from an integrated framework of specialized models(*) and data representing multiple sectors and policies

• Economic performances (e.g. GDP, sectoral production, employment, investments in innovation, convergence, ..)

• Access to services (e.g.: to public structures, recreational and cultural sites, ..)

• Infrastructures for housing, transport, energy, …

• Environmental performances (e.g. pollution levels and mitigation measures), natural capital and ecosystem services

(*) RHOMOLO,LUISA, TRANSTOOLS, RIAT, GEM-E3, ESTIMAP…

8

LUISA - Examples of products/outputs

RTD impacts Network efficiency

LUISA Visualisation Tool

Indicators – Regional characterisation/profiling

• Compliant with the ‘Energy Reference Scenario 2013’:

• Full Climate and Energy package (Jan 2014)

• Used in the IA for Low Carbon Economy and the White Paper on Transport;

• Reflects policies adopted by March 2012

• Agriculture (CAP and spatial aspects)

• Renewables Directive

• TEN-T Updated road transport network.

• Biodiversity and Habitat protection

• ERDF & Cohesion Funds

Timeline: 2010-2050, Coverage: EU28, Resolution: 100x100 mt.

LUISA Configuration of the Reference Scenario (1)

Ref.: Baranzelli et al, 2014

Sector/Theme Model Current implementation

Agriculture CAPRI RES_2_04XX_PRIMESCOR (driven by PRIMES)

Industry GEM-E3 Update 07/2013 (ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)

Cohesion Policy RHOMOLO MFF (Preliminary allocations)

Residential areas EUROPOP EUROPOP 2010

Forestry UNFCC Historical Data

Tourism UNWTO

Transport TEN-T TRANSTOOL Approved network upgrades

Climate Change Various ENSEMBLE (A1B, E1)

Crop suitability BIOMA AVEMAC

Thematic Indicators ESTIMAP, CBM, LISFLOOD/QUAL, .. Ecosystem Services, Forest, Water ..

LUISA Configuration of the Reference Scenario (2)

12

Examples of products/outputs

13

POTENTIAL ACCESSIBILITY 2010 CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL ACCESSIBLITY 2010 -2030

Ref.: Barbosa et al, 2014

14

Mobility, network performances, trips

©Chris Jacobs Crisioni, 2015 IN PROGRESS christiaan.jacobs@jrc.ec.europa.eu

Baseline scenario

Policy option A

Examples of measures:

A: Invest on infrastructures-> reduced congestion -> reduced emission - > increased accessibility

B: Targeted urban/regional planning -> optimized land use intensity -> increased efficiency

Definition of scenarios of options/measures

Policy option B

Impact assessment: Δ (Option A+B / Baseline) = Overall impact of policies Δ (Option A / Baseline) = Contribution of policy A Δ (Option B / Baseline) = Contribution of policy B

Policy option

A+B

16

-0,5%

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1 10 100

Percen

tag

e o

f la

nd

b

eco

min

g u

rb

an

betw

een

20

10

an

d 2

03

0

Modelled traveltime to nearest city centre (minutes in 2030; logarithmic scale)

BAU

Compact

Reference

17

Flood damage reduction / water retention measure

Urban measures Agricultural measures Meandering measures

Comparison % Population exposed to pollutant concentration over limits

18

Air quality indicators at FUA

Changes related to percentage of population exposed to high levels of pollutants are

due to movement of people more than to changes in exposure levels

Population map of London. 2010 -2050

©Pilar Vizcaino, Marco Trombetti, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, 2015 IN PRESS

ECFIN projection (MS level) Regionalized ECFIN projection

(NUTS3 level)

Sub-regional breakdown of macro-economic trends

Scenario: ‘Regional and sector trends to continue’

Employment, GDP, population change 2015->2025

Demography Economy

Land demand

Allocation mechanism

Population

LU

IS

A

EX

OG

.

LU Accessibility

Internal migrations

Land use functions

Demography Economy

t+1

t

t+1

Economic gradients influence migration flows between regions.

> Urban patterns influence regional economic growth;

> ESS and natural assets can foster regional opportunities;

> Different regional growths vs. regional Profiles.

Regionalization

Under development

Implemented

Examples of Applications

Integrated Coastal Zones Management (IA)

Common Agricultural Policy (IA)

Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Water Resources (IA)

Implementation of the ENER-CLIMA Reference Scenario

Assessment of Shale Gas extraction in PL and D (IA)

Resource Efficiency Roadmap

Regional Policy (input to 6th Cohesion Report)

Modelling of ecosystems and ecosystem services (MAES)

Thank you!

More to follow in Session 2 …

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu http://sa.jrc.ec.europa.eu https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa