VIVALDI FORUMS

SUMMER VIVALDI FORUM - FORECASTING 2012Mokra Gora, June 23-25, 2011

Reflections on the panic of 2009

Dr. Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore

Fed $ 843 b

Banks (M2) $ 7.8 tn

Shadow Banks $ 16 tn

Int’l Positions of Banks (USD Deposits outside U.S.) $ 37.4 tn ($13.2 tn)

OTC Derivatives $ 684 tn (notional)

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve System

Bank for International Settlements

Author’s Calculations

The USD Credit Triangle (August 2008)

Prof. Dr. Steve H. Hanke

21 June 2011

Fed $ 2.9 tn

Banks (M2) $ 9.0 tn

Shadow Banks $ 11.8 tn

Int’l Positions of Banks (USD Deposits outside U.S.) $ 32.7 tn ($12.7 tn)

OTC Derivatives $ 601 tn (notional)

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve System

Bank for International Settlements

Author’s Calculations

The USD Credit Triangle (June 2011)

Prof. Dr. Steve H. Hanke

21 June 2011

U.S. Federal Government Expenditures as a Percent of GDPRank Administration Percentage Point Change

1 Clinton -3.9%

2 Eisenhower -1.6%

3 Nixon -0.9%

4 Reagan -0.4%

5 Carter 0.3%

6 Kennedy-Johnson 0.7%

7 H.W. Bush 0.8%

8 Nixon-Ford 1.8%

9 Johnson 2.0%

10 W. Bush 2.5%

11 Obama 3.1%

Note: The rankings are from 1 (best) to 11 (worst).

Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, House Budget Committee, National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and Author's Calculations.

Prof. Dr. Steve H. Hanke21 June 2011