Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013
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Transcript of Ipsos MORI Scotland: Independence Referendum Poll September 2013
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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2013
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Independence referendum
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All = 1,000; all certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
30%
57%
14%
All
‘Yes’ Change
since May
+2
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
‘Yes’ Change
since May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – certain to vote
Base: All certain to vote = 73% (728). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
31%
59%
10%
Certain to vote
‘Yes’ Change
since May
0
Yes
No
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13
Yes No Undecided
59%
31%
10%
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 73% (659). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
35%
65%
All
34%
66%
Certain to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (531). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
33%
67%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
38%
62%
33%
67%
33%
67%
Yes No
All definitely decided
and certain to vote
(Feb-Sep)
Yes
No
No Change
since May
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Floating voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (251); all undecided (130). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th
September 2013
39%
61%
All giving a voting intention but may change their mind
35%
31%
34%
All undecided – inclined to vote
Yes
No
Yes
No
Undecided
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here Support for independence – long-term trend
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
ence
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
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here Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
40%
54%
24%
64%
40%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Men Women
% voting Yes
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Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
Yes
No
29%
62%
37%
51% 12%
30%
61% 9%
30%
61% 9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
42%
45%
22%
69%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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14%
80% 6%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote (755). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-15th September 2013
Yes
No
68%
21%
16%
75% 9%
1% 98%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents
conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 9th – 15th September 2013
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot