Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

Redistricting, 2011Expectations and Results

What is Redistrictingdefinition

Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature.

Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards… All elected bodies do redistricting.

Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.

What is Redistricting?the Gerrymander

The term Gerrymander came from a cartoon depicting a rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.

What is Redistrictingthe Gerrymander

There are still legislative linesthat look a lot likethe original Gerrymander!

Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22

What is RedistrictingWhy should anyone care?

What is RedistrictingWhy should anyone care?

In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship. It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.

What is RedistrictingFederal VRA and State CVRA

VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5.

CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act – it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.

What is RedistrictingSection 2 and Section 5

Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats. As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting

Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices. In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.

Proposition 11 / 20 PrinciplesPublic voted for a new system in California

The California redistricting experiment, if you believed the commercials, was supposed to achieve the following.

• Take the “power of the pen” away from incumbents• Create districts that made sense (circles and squares,

not the ribbon of shame)• Protect cities and counties from being divided• Make elections competitive again• Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC• Take Politics out of the Process

Pre-Redraw DiscussionsThe Commission’s Great Unknown

Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created?

AsianCVAP Asian

AD 49 (Eng) 39% 47%AD 12 (Ma) 43% 41%AD 20 (Weickowski) 36% 38%AD 22 (Fong) 33% 31%AD 23 (Campos) 26% 32%AD 68 (Mansoor) 25% 30%


AsianCVAP Asian

SD 8 (Yee) 32%34%

SD 10 (Corbett) 30% 33%SD 13 (Alquist) 26% 29%

SD 24 (Hernandez) 18% 23%



AsianCVAP Asian

CD 8 (Pelosi) 29% 27%CD 12 (Speier) 29% 31%CD 13 (Stark) 28% 31%

CD 29 (Schiff) 24% 24%CD 47 (Sanchez) 14% 22%


Traditional Redistricting PrinciplesUsed by our Commission

The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage.

• Relatively equal size - people, not citizens• Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump• Follow city/county/local government lines• Maintain communities of interest• Keep districts compact – appearance/function• Preserving voter choices (incumbents)

Traditional Redistricting PrinciplesFrom decades of case law

There are a number of criteria that have been used nationally and upheld by courts.


Current DistrictsEqual Size Districts

Communities of InterestKeeping similar voters together

Generally thought of as:• Race / Ethnicity• Socioeconomic• Language• Religious

Communities of InterestKeeping similar voters together

Generally thought of as:• Race / Ethnicity• Socioeconomic• Language• Religious

Can also include:• Issues• Voting patterns• Workforce

Looking at State ChangesNew Commission

Organizations and individuals are drafting plans, and finding that it isn’t as easy as they thought!

Cook Political ReportCongressional Plan


The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.

Cook Political ReportCongressional Plan


An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.


But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats


A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.


A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.

Traditional Redistricting PrinciplesBorne out of VRA and several federal lawsuits

Compact Not Compact

Digging into VRAHow easy create more Asian seats?

Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:

• There is racially polarized voting.

• The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.

• The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.


Does Racially Polarized Voting exist in the Asian Community? There is not a simple answer.

• RPV exists groups have divergent voting patterns that can be proven statistically based on court-approved methods.

• This differs based on the types of candidates in a race, and the region of the state.

Where Asian RPV is clear

Where Asian RPV is not clear

Does this evidence in LA mean that there is Racially Polarized Voting in California for and against Asians?

• Can be muddied by Party Affiliation – More Latinos in the SGV voted for Chaing than Asians

• Differs by region of the state.

Asian Density

Yee for Assembly 2010 Primary

Asian Density

Hayashi for Judge

Asian Density

Where Asian RPV is less clear2006 Democratic Primary Controller – Dunn v. ChiangThe 2006 Dem Primary pitted trial lawyer Joe Dunn from Orange County versus prosecutor John Chiang from Los Angeles. White voters favored Chiang by 16%, with Asian voters favoring Chiang by the slightly larger margin of 24%


Under Voting Rights Act a Majority – Minority Asian district must be created where:

• There is racially polarized voting.

• The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.

• The lines can be drawn in accordance with traditional redistricting rules. Race not ONLY criteria.

Proposition 11 / 20 OutcomesWhat we know for now…

The impact of Prop 11 and 20 are far and wide, independent of whether the goals of the TV Commercials was met.

• Most anti-incumbent redistricting in history.

• Creates one-time competition even if without long-term competitiveness

• Changed public and lawmaker expectations – both down to local government and nationally.

Proposition 11 / 20 OutcomesPartisan and Ethnic Breakdown

Assembly Senate Congress

Dem 48 24 33

GOP 21 11 12

Swing Seats 11 5 8

African American 0 0 0

Latino 15 5 9

Asian 1 0 0


AsianCVAP Asian

SD 8 32%34%

SD 10 30%33%

SD 13 26%29%

SD 24 18%23%

Are things better today than Four Months Ago?

Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes


AsianCVAP Asian

SD 10 40%33%

SD 22 32%31%

SD 11 36%31%

SD 15 30%25%




AsianCVAP Asian

CD 8 29%27%

CD 12 29%31%

CD 13 28%31%

CD 29 24% 24%

CD 47 14% 22%




AsianCVAP Asian

CD 17 49%38%

CD 27 37%31%

CD 14 31%28%

CD 12 31% 27%

CD 19 26% 25%





AsianCVAP Asian

AD 49 39%47%

AD 12 43%41%

AD 20 36%38%

AD 22 33%31%

AD 23 26%32%

AD 68 25%30%




AsianCVAP Asian

AD 49 53%50%

AD 19 44%39%

AD 25 49%39%

AD 27 33%34%

AD 20 31%28%

AD 72 32%28%


These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?



These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?

There are two streams:

• Better API seats provide numeric advantages.

• Greater API opportunity comes in non-Asian districts too.



Proposition 11 / 20 OutcomesHandouts provide a very detailed look

Will these lines stick?Referendums and lawsuits appear moving

A court battle is the eventual end to any high-stakes redistricting.

• Referendum appears to be moving against Senate lines while congressional effort is dead.

• Lawsuits moving on both Senate and Congressional.

• Congressional lawsuit is the most interesting.

Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

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