Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region

Reconciliation of Population, Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth Labor Force and Job Growth

in the WashCog Planning in the WashCog Planning RegionRegion

Cooperative Forecasting GroupCooperative Forecasting Group

April 5, 2005April 5, 2005

Maryland Department of Planning

Mark D. GoldsteinMark D. Goldstein

Components of ReconciliationComponents of Reconciliation

Population by Age and SexPopulation by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and SexLabor Force by Age and Sex Jobs by Place of WorkJobs by Place of Work Net CommutationNet Commutation

What Was UsedWhat Was Used

Round 7 population for WashCog JurisdictionsRound 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions MDP population by age distributions for MD MDP population by age distributions for MD

jurisdictionsjurisdictions VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VEC population by age distributions for WashCog

VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C.VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. MDP projected LFPRs by ageMDP projected LFPRs by age Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base

for all jurisdictionsfor all jurisdictions

Population Change, Wash COG Region, Population Change, Wash COG Region, Actual and RND 7 ProjectionsActual and RND 7 Projections

633.1

855.0

560.3

329.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Tho

usan

ds

90s 00s 10s 20s

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and local planning offices

Population Change in the WashCog Region Population Change in the WashCog Region by Major Age Cohorts, 2000 - 2030by Major Age Cohorts, 2000 - 2030

742,550

621,500

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

20-64 65+

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

2000 2030

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data

Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the Wash COG Region by Age, 2000 - 2030Wash COG Region by Age, 2000 - 2030

-3.3

1.60.7

2.5 2.1 2.8

6.5

16.2

9.8

6.3

0.4

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region, LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+Population Ages 16+

71.570.6

69.9

68.2

63646566676869707172

2000 2010 2020 2030

MDP Proj


LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+

70.669.9

68.269.4

67.2

64.9

71.5

63646566676869707172

2000 2010 2020 2030

MDP Proj Constant 2000


Projected Total Labor Force and Job Projected Total Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning RegionGrowth in the WashCog Planning Region

239220.3

253

324.7

189

256.8

120

237.1

60

221.4

36

210.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Tho

usan

ds

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

Labor Force Jobs

Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Washington Cog Region, Growth in the Washington Cog Region,

2000-20302000-20301,745,500

895,300

1,470,800

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Population Labor Force Jobs


Reconciliation ProcessReconciliation Process

Given population, labor force and job Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratiopersons ratio

To balance: allow net commutation to fill in To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totalsthe gap between jobs and labor force totals

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Washington, D.C., 2000-2030Growth in Washington, D.C., 2000-2030

140,100

67,000

146,600

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000



Net Commutation for Washington, D.C.Net Commutation for Washington, D.C.

426,020

410,794

427,948

447,728

461,857 459,695462,999

475,935

360,000

400,000

440,000

480,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

An increase of 65,100 in net in commutation

between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Washington Net Commutation Rate for Washington D.C., 2000-2030 *D.C., 2000-2030 *

153.2%142.9% 139.5% 143.2%

150.1%155.3%154.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030•== net commutation divided by resident workforce net commutation divided by resident workforce

Source: Maryland Department of Planning Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Arlington Co, 2000-2030Growth in Arlington Co, 2000-2030

53,450

36,700

87,400

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000



Net Commutation for Arlington Co.Net Commutation for Arlington Co.

55,033

47,600 47,491

57,132

66,099

73,12676,943

84,252

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030




Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co., Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

43.5%

50.3% 51.6%55.6%

47.6%

38.7%40.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Alexandria City, 2000-2030Growth in Alexandria City, 2000-2030

30,100

20,150

49,600

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000



Net Commutation for Alexandria CityNet Commutation for Alexandria City

11,930

4,177

9,79111,599

13,185

16,40217,588

20,627

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030




Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria City, 2000-2030 *City, 2000-2030 *

13.2%

17.4% 18.2%

21.1%

14.4%

11.8%

5.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%



Net Commutation for Central JurisdictionsNet Commutation for Central Jurisdictions

492,983462,571

485,230516,460

541,140 549,222 557,531580,813

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030




Net Commutation Rate for Central Net Commutation Rate for Central Jurisdictions Co., 2000-2030 *Jurisdictions Co., 2000-2030 *

100.9%

97.9%

96.6%

99.8%100.6%100.8%

100.2%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Montgomery Co, 2000-2030Growth in Montgomery Co, 2000-2030

226,650

100,500

194,100

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000



Net Commutation for Montgomery Co.Net Commutation for Montgomery Co.

-28,388

-14,663

-37,542-34,456

-52,592-58,811

-53,991

-35,371

-13,402

8,111

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A 42,600 turnaround in net commutation between

2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery Co., 2000-2030 *Co., 2000-2030 *

-11.0%

-6.3%

-2.4%

1.5%

-9.7%-10.6%

-7.5%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince George’s Co, 2000-2030Growth in Prince George’s Co, 2000-2030

164,150

65,700

241,700

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000



Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co.Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co.

-119,368 -123,773 -119,793

-102,117-108,762

-98,402

-79,084

-48,148

-14,028

21,517

-160,000

-120,000

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s Co., 2000-2030 *Co., 2000-2030 *

-22.3%

-10.5%

-3.0%

4.6%

-17.5%

-25.4%-25.1%-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Fairfax Co, 2000-2030*Growth in Fairfax Co, 2000-2030*

241,200

146,450

317,250

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000



* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.*Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.*

-54,697

1,361 3,090

19,45324,818

47,427

74,442

93,507

-80,000

-40,000

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030




* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church* Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co., Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

3.1%

6.9%

10.8%

13.5%

3.7%

0.5%0.3%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%



Net Commutation for Inner SuburbsNet Commutation for Inner Suburbs

-212,032

-135,212-158,264

-137,760

-108,257

-36,092

47,012

123,135

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Inner Net Commutation Rate for the Inner Suburbs, 2000-2030 *Suburbs, 2000-2030 *

-8.5%

-2.1%

2.7%

7.1%

-6.4%

-10.5%-9.5%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Loudoun Co, 2000-2030Growth in Loudoun Co, 2000-2030

297,500

185,500 184,100

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000



Net Commutation for Loudoun Co.Net Commutation for Loudoun Co.

-10,317 -13,076

-34,033

-48,025

-68,914

-82,676-75,107

-61,213

-90,000

-70,000

-50,000

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


An increase of 48,150 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co., Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

-27.1%

-32.5%

-28.0%

-22.2%

-31.4%

-24.8%

-14.0%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince William Co, 2000-2030*Growth in Prince William Co, 2000-2030*

262,500

121,350108,300

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

Net Commutation for Prince William Co.*Net Commutation for Prince William Co.*

-54,030

-67,873

-94,495

-110,810-119,307 -117,246

-108,975-99,770

-130,000

-110,000

-90,000

-70,000

-50,000

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park* Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

Net Commutation Rate for Prince William Net Commutation Rate for Prince William Co., 2000-2030 *Co., 2000-2030 *

-43.4%-40.1%

-36.7%-33.4%

-42.7%-42.8%

-37.6%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Calvert Co, 2000-2030Growth in Calvert Co, 2000-2030

25,450

9,400 9,700

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000



Net Commutation for Calvert Co.Net Commutation for Calvert Co.

-2,061

-7,659

-11,795

-17,846-19,381

-21,553 -22,028 -21,320-20,138

-19,320

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A modest increase in net OUT commutation


Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co., Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

-45.6% -44.1% -42.3% -40.9%

-45.5%-45.7%-46.8%-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Charles Co, 2000-2030Growth in Charles Co, 2000-2030

85,550

40,700

19,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000



Net Commutation for Charles Co.Net Commutation for Charles Co.

-3,413

-12,485

-22,244-25,478

-30,204-32,944

-38,859

-43,714-46,842

-50,624

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co., Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

-41.2%

-46.7% -48.0% -49.5%-44.6%

-41.8%-40.5%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Frederick Co, 2000-2030Growth in Frederick Co, 2000-2030

130,900

64,200

78,100

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000



Net Commutation for Frederick Co.Net Commutation for Frederick Co.

-5,764

-16,740 -17,090 -17,587

-23,247

-27,467 -27,600

-25,400

-20,498

-15,153

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A decrease of 4,400 in net OUT commutation


Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co., Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

-21.0%

-16.7%

-12.9%

-9.2%

-19.4%-19.8%

-16.9%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Stafford Co, 2000-2030Growth in Stafford Co, 2000-2030

87,950

38,65034,900

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000



Net Commutation for Stafford Co.Net Commutation for Stafford Co.

-17,117-21,317

-27,030

-32,944 -33,847 -34,508-32,074

-29,312

-50,000

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


An increase of 8,000 in net OUT commutation


Net Commutation Rate for Stafford Co., Net Commutation Rate for Stafford Co., 2000-2030 *2000-2030 *

-45.6%-41.6%

-37.7%-33.8%

-43.5%-44.7%-43.4%-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Net Commutation for Outer SuburbsNet Commutation for Outer Suburbs

-132,593

-163,177

-228,388

-273,744

-310,555-324,864

-303,634

-275,391 -275,391

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


An increase of 112,200 in net OUTcommutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Outer Net Commutation Rate for the Outer Suburbs, 2000-2030 *Suburbs, 2000-2030 *

-35.9% -35.2%-31.8%

-28.2% -28.2%

-36.3%-35.1%

-30.9%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%



Net Commutation for the Washington Net Commutation for the Washington COG RegionCOG Region

148,358164,182

98,578 104,956122,328

188,267

300,908

428,557

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A 264,400 increase in net in commutation between 2000

and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Washington Net Commutation Rate for Washington COG Region, 2000-2030 *COG Region, 2000-2030 *

3.6%

5.9%

9.3%

13.1%

4.0%3.7%

6.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



Net Commutation for the WashCog Region Net Commutation for the WashCog Region with Increasing LFPRs in 2030with Increasing LFPRs in 2030

428,557

381,312

333,228

285,144

237,061

68.2

69.2

70.2

71.2

72.2

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73


Net Commutation and Rates for the Net Commutation and Rates for the WashCog Region in 2030WashCog Region in 2030

428,557

381,312

333,228

285,144

237,061

13.1

11.5

9.9

8.3

6.8

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Percent of Net Commuters into Percent of Net Commuters into Washington COG Region in 2000Washington COG Region in 2000

48%

29%

9%

7%4%3%

Baltimore RegionVirginiaOther MarylandWest VirginiaPennsylavaniaOther

Source: The MNCPPC from U.S. Census,

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore Region, 2000-2030Growth in the Baltimore Region, 2000-2030

367,800

137,100

381,300

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000



Net Commutation for the Baltimore RegionNet Commutation for the Baltimore Region

-8,249

-40,354-49,496 -49,843 -55,806

-62,540

-43,660

1,719

61,939

107,438

-100,000

-60,000

-20,000

20,000

60,000

100,000

140,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A 157,300 “turnaround” between 2000 and 2030

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore & Wash COG Growth in the Baltimore & Wash COG

Regions, 2000-2030Regions, 2000-2030

2,113,300

1,032,400

1,852,100

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000



Net Commutation for the Baltimore & Net Commutation for the Baltimore & Washington COG RegionsWashington COG Regions

98,862114,339

42,772 42,41678,669

189,986

362,847

535,995

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


A 421,650 increase in net in commutation between 2000

and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Baltimore Net Commutation Rate for the Baltimore & Washington COG Regions, 2000-2030 *& Washington COG Regions, 2000-2030 *

1.0%

4.1%

7.9%

11.6%

1.8%1.1%

3.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



BMC

Wash COG

Rest of CMSAAdjacent Counties

Spotsylvania

Hampshire

Fauquier

Frederick

Frederick Baltimore

Harford

Balto.City

Howard

AnneArundel

Calvert

Montgomery

PrinceGeorge’s

Stafford

Charles

Loudoun

Jefferson

Clarke

Warren

Fairfax

D.C.

PrinceWilliam

Carroll CecilWashington

St. Mary’s

Caroline

KingGeorge

FranklinAdams York

Lancaster

Shenandoah

PageRappahannock

Culpeper

Orange

Morgan

Berkeley

QueenAnne’s

Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region

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