DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS · segment of population to total population using actual/latest census...

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Short Course on Environmental Planning

DCERP & HUMEIN Phils. Inc.

Ronaldo O. Rogel, EnP

Adjunct Associate Professor

DCERP, College of Human Ecology

University of the Philippines Los Baños

January 14, 2017

Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro

“For us to plan properly,

we must manage our population…”

Goodluck Jonathan

President of Nigeria 2010-2015

WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY? From the Greek language, demography means

description of people.

From the Multi-Lingual demographic dictionary of the United Nations, demography is defined as:

• scientific study of human population primarily with respect to size, structure and development.

• concerned with current size and characteristics of human population, how they were attainted and how they are changing.

Plans are by nature

oriented toward the

future, estimates of the

composition of a given

population at a future

date will be necessary

Demography or population studies represents the starting point for planning at all scales



Population is the basis for

determining whether the

level of public services like

schools, health centers,

recreational facilities, power

and water supply, is

adequate/inadequate or

accessible/inaccessible.

POPULATION refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a

specified time.



Provides guidelines for

deciding total land

requirements and the basis of

land between various

competing land uses




Population make-up and distribution dictates the

policy for most of the human settlements needs




8

Fig. 4.13

Demographic analysis

Generates relevant population

data in a specific area

Involves the determination of present trends

governing changes in population statistics as

well as future population shifts in a given area

Can readily be accessed from the

National Census conducted nationwide

at regular five-year intervals


1

2

3



In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the

population must be studied:

Demographic analysis

SIZE CHARACTERISTICS

DISTRIBUTION




DATA EXISTING

POPULATION

TRENDS IN

POPULATION

FUTURE

POPULATION

Size Current

population

Any symptoms

of change?

Prediction

Characteristics Breakdown of

population

Trend

(increasing,

stable,

decreasing)

Prediction

Distribution Examine

distribution

Alteration in

the distribution

Prediction

Population studies POPULATION STUDIES

Fundamental Demographic Methods

Composition Models Trend Models

Treat the population as a whole

without disaggregation with

respect to age, sex or other

characteristics.

Treat a given population as an

aggregate of the various

groups, and the evolution of the

population results (in part) from

the interaction of these groups

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS

1

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS

Mathematical Method Estimates future population

Economic Method Projects future population based on

economic conditions

Component or Cohort-Survival

Method

Projects population by demographic

components

Methods of Population Projection 2

- - -POPULATION CHANGE- - -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

-

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

-



FERTILITY

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

refers to the live births that occur within a

population.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

refers to the number of births divided by the midyear

population, usually expressed in terms of thousands.

It is the simplest and most commonly used index of

fertility.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CBR = _B_ X 1000

P

Where:

B – No. of Births in a given year

P - Total Mid-year population of same year

Example:

= __297 X 1000

10000

CBR = 29.7 per 1000 population

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Total Mid-year Population (July 1)

Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t

Where:

Po = pop at an earlier period

Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated

1.0 = constant

r = annual population growth rate

t = time interval between Po and Pt

MORTALITY

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

refers to the occurrence of deaths in a

population.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to

the number of deaths per 1,000 population.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CDR = _D_ X 1000

P

Where:

D – No. of Deaths in a given year

P - Total Mid-year population of same year

Example:

= __70 X 1000

10000

CDR = 7 per 1000 population

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rate of population increase in a given period

due to births and deaths

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

RNI = (CBR - CDR)

Example:

CBR (Philippines, 1990) = 29.7 per 1000 population

CDR (Philippines, 1990) = 7.0 per 1000 population

RNI = (CBR - CDR)

= (29.7 - 7.0)

= 22.7 or 23

MIGRATION

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Geographic movement of people across a

specified boundary for the purpose of

establishing a new permanent or semi-

permanent residence

Immigration Rate The number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 population at that destination in a given year.

IR = _Number of immigrants______ x 1,000

Total population at destination

Example:

39,895_ X 1000 = 4.5 per 1,000 residents

8,844,499

Emigration Rate The number of emigrants departing an area of origin per 1,000 population at that area of origin in a given year.

ER = _Number of emigrants__ x 1,000

Total population at origin

Example:

33,884_ X 1000 = 3.8 per 1,000 residents

8,844,499

Net migration Rate Shows the net difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area (Immigrants) and those leaving the area (Emigrants) per 1,000 population of a an area in a given year.

ER = Number of immigrants

– Number of emigrants x 1,000

Total population

Example:

39,895 - 33,884_ X 1000 = + 0.7 per 1,000

8,844,499 population through

migration

POPULATION DYNAMICS The balance among fertility, mortality and migration determines whether a population increases, remains stationary, or decreases in number.

The relation between births and deaths is referred to as Natural Population Increase (Natural Population Growth).

When the net effect of migration is added to natural increase, this referred to as Total Natural Increase (Total Growth).

Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Municipality of Pangarap 2015

# of Births: 672

# of Deaths: 245

Mid-year Population : 23,400

Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI

(Answers)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CBR= 672/23,400 x 1,000

= 28.72 or 29 per 1,000 population

CDR= 245/23,400 x 1,000

=10.47 or 10 per 1,000 population

RNI=28.72-10.47

= 18.25 or 18

COMPUTING POPULATION

GROWTH RATES

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ARITHMETIC CHANGE

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Assumes that there are linear increases or

decreases in population

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Example:

Pt = Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536

Po = May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206

t = 5.3370

r = ?

Pt – Po

t (Po) r = * k

68,616,536 – 60,703,206

5.3370 (60,703,206) * 100 r =

r = 2.44 percent

*

GEOMETRIC CHANGE

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Assumes that the population changes at a rate

where the increments or decreases are

compounded over a specified period

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Example:

Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536

Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206

t = 5.3397

r = ?

k = 100

Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t

antilog r =

Pt

Po _______

t

log

- 1 * k

_____________

5.3397

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

antilog r =

Pt

Po _______

t - 1 * k

antilog r =

68,616,536

60,703,206 log

- 1 * 100

antilog r = 0.05321716

5.3397 - 1 * 100

r = 1.023213639 - 1 * 100

r = 2.32 percent

EXPONENTIAL CHANGE

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Assumes an instantaneous growth rate

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Example:

Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536

Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206

t = 5.3397

r = ?

k = 100

Pn = Poert

r =

Pt

Po _______

t

In

* k

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

r =

Pt

Po _______

t

In

* k

r =

68,616,536

60,703,206 __________ 5.3397

In

* 100

r = 0.122537041 __________

5.3397 * 100

r = 2.29 percent

DOUBLING TIME OF VARIOUS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Refers to the length of time a particular

population would double its size under a given

growth rate

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Example:

Doubling time = __________ Growth Rate (%)

69.3*

Doubling time = _______ 2.35

69.3

Doubling time = 29.5 years

*It takes 69.3 years for a 1% Growth Rate to double the population

size

DOUBLING TIME

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Doubling Time of Various Rates of Growth

Rates of Growth (%) Doubling Time (Years)

0.5 138

1 69

2 35

3 23

4 27

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

46

ADD TABLE 4.1

When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the

46,800 Population?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2015 Population: 23,400

R = 2.16

When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the

46,800 Population?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Doubling time = 69.3/2.19

= 31.64 or 32 years

When? : 2013 + 32

= 2045

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

POPULATION

PROJECTIONS



There are different

methods of

projecting future

population.

This guide suggests the combined use of

GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.

GEOMETRIC METHOD

antilog r =

Pt

Po ______

t

log

- 1 * k

Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t



PARTICIPATION RATE

METHOD (PR)

This method simply uses ratio or

percent share of a particular

segment of population to total

population using actual/latest

census data.

Population per barangay

Dependent population

Labor force population

Population per age group

PR Working Age =

Pop’n 15-64 years old

Total population

EXAMPLE:



City/Municipal Population Projection

Projection required is yearly for the first 5 years and 5 years

thereafter.

Participation Rate (PR) = Po (base pop’n of City/Municipality)

Po (base pop’n of province)



City/Municipal Population Projection (Planning Period 2016-2025)

Province

City/ Mun.

Base Pop’n

(Po1)

(2010)

PR2

Projected Population

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025

Province 215,356 1 2574183 261897 266404 270666 274997 2881283 3085953

City/ Mun. 57,067 0.265 68216* (69403) (70597) (71726) (72874) 76354** 81778**

1use latest census data

2Participation Rate = Po (City/Mun.)

Po (Province) 3given data obtained from NSO

*projected pop’n of city/mun., 2017 = PR x Projected Pop’n of province 2017

**apply same formula using data corresponding to the projection year 2020 and 2025

(xxxxx) : derived by PR method

xxxxx : computed based on growth rate (r), assumed to be constant between 5-year

interval projection for the province

• Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate (r) using the two latest census. And use it to project the whole planning period.

• Growth Rate (r) – 2007 and 2010

• Growth Rate (r) – 2016 to 2025

GEOMETRIC METHOD

antilog r =

Pt

Po ______

t

log

- 1 * k

Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t



Practice computing r and projected population

using geometric formula:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Municipality of Pangarap

2010: 21,030

2015: 23,400

r = ?

2020: ?

r= antilog [0.209/5.3397] – 1x100 r= antilog 0.009 r= 1.020 – 1 x 100

r= 2.02 percent

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

r and projected population using geometric formula

2020=23,400 (1.0202)5

= 25,861

Yearly Population per

Barangay

City/

Municipality/

Barangay

Base

Pop’n

(Po1)

(2010)

PR2


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025

Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778

Brgy. A 2,879 0.050 3,411 3,470 3,530 3,586 3,644 3,818 4,089

Brgy. B 2,806 0.049 3,343 3,401 3,459 3,515 3,571 3,741 4,007

Brgy. C 3,554 0.044 (3,001) 3,054 3,106 3,156 3,206 3,360 3,598

Etc.

Sample computation:

xxxxx – projected population of the city/municipality previously computed



PR = Brgy. Pop’n

Pop’n of city/mun.

PR , Brgy. A = 2879

57,067 = 0.05

Projected population Brgy.= PR of Brgy. x Projected Pop’n of city/mun.

Pop’n (Brgy. A):

2015 = 0.05 x 68,216 = 3,411

2016 = 0.05 x 69,403= 3,470

etc.

Yearly Population per

Barangay



Population Projection

by Age-Group

Age-

Group

Pop’n

(Po)

(2010)

PR1


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025

Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778

Under 1 1,666 0.0292 1,992 2,027 2,061 2,094 2,128 2,230 2,388

1-4 6, 196 0.1086 7,408 7,537 7,667 7,789 7,914 8,292 8,881

5-9 7, 384 9,281 9,430 9,880 10,582

> 80

Sample computation using PR:

xxxxx – results of previous computations

Blank – for Practice computation



1. PR (age group: Under 1) = Pop’n (under 1)

Pop’n of city/mun.

2. Projected pop’n of age Under 1 = PR x P(city/mun.)

= 0.0292 x 68,216

= 1992

1,666

57,067 =

= 0.0292

Apply the same formula for all other age-groups to get PR for each age-group.

Apply the same formula to project the rest of the population per age-group.

Population Projection

by Age-Group



PR = Pop’n in the labor force (or economically active pop’n)

Pop’n 15 years and over

Projected Labor Force



Pop’n

(Po)

(2010)

PR


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025

Household

pop’n 15

yrs & over

34,601 1.00 41,359 42,079 42,803 43,487 44,184 46,293 49,582

In the labor

force

33,563 0.970 40,118 40,816 41,519 42,182 42,858 44,904 48,095

Male 16,647 (0.496) 19,899 20,245 20,593 20,476 21,258 22,272 23,855

Female 16,916 (0.504) 20,219

xxxxx – projected population by age-group




Labor Force PR = 33,563

34,601

Projected Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Pop’n 15 yrs & over

= 0.97 x 41,359

= 40,118

0.97 =

Male PR in the Labor Force = 11,647

33,563 0.496 =




Projected Male Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Labor Force 2008

= 0.496 x 40,118

= 19,898

Projected Female Labor Force, 2015 = 0.504 x 40,118 = 20,219

Repeat procedure to obtain projection for the rest of the planning period.




Population Characteristics

• It refers to the composition of the population in

terms of age, sex, marital status and other

characteristics of the population.



Age Sex Composition

• Sex Ratio is simply the number of males per

100 females in a population.

SR = M * 100

F



Age Dependency Ratio

• The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of

0-14 years and 65 years and over to the population

in the working ages 15-64 years.

• Child Dependency Ratio = P 0-14

P 15-64 * 100

• Old-Age Dependency Ratio = P 65 over

P 15-64 *100

• Age Dependency Ratio = P 0-14 + P 65 over

P 15-64 *100




• What is the

Young Dependency

Ratio,

Old Age

Dependency Ratio

and

Age Dependency

Ratio?

YEAR 2015

All Male Female

Dependency Ratios Young Dependency Ratio (below 15

years old) = 6,902/12,223 x100

= 56 per 100 working age group

Old Age Dependency Ratio (65 years old

and above)

=1,344/12,223x100

= 11per 100 working age group

Dependency Ratios

Age Dependency Ratio (below 15 years + 65

years old and above) = 6,902 +1,344

12,223

= 67 per 100 working age group

Labor Force

• Labor Force refers to the population 15 years old

and over who contribute to the production of goods

and services in the country.

• Labor Force Participation Rate - proportion of the

total number of persons in the labor force to the total

population 15 years old and over.



Unemployed (new definition) - includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their

last birthday and are reported as:

i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic

survey reference period; and

ii. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing

to take up work in paid employment or self employment

during the basic survey reference period, and/or would be

available and willing to take up work in paid employment or

self employment within two weeks after the interview date;

and,



Unemployed (new definition) - includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their

last birthday and are reported as:

iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job

or establish a business during the basic survey reference period;

OR not seeking work due to the following reasons: (a)

tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers who

looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview

date; (b) awaiting results of previous job applications; (c)

temporary illness/disability; (d) bad weather; and (e) waiting for

rehire/job recall.



• Employment Rate

- the proportion of total number of

employed persons to the total number of

persons in the labor force



MARITAL STATUS

Basic Terms

• Single - A person who has never

been married;

• Married - A couple living together

as husband and wife, legally or

consensually;

• Divorced - A person whose bond

of matrimony has been dissolved

legally and who therefore can

remarry; Short Course on Environmental Planning


• Separated - A person separated

legally or not from his/her

spouse because of marital

discord or misunderstanding;

and

• Widowed - A person whose

bond of matrimony has been

dissolved by death of his/her

spouse.

Basic Terms



Singulate Mean Age at Marriage

(SMAM) The singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) is the

average length of single life expressed in years among those who marry before age 50.

A measure of nuptiality derived from a set of percent

singles at all ages.

It denotes the number of years that a

married individual spends in singlehood

before ultimately marrying.



Steps to calculate SMAM

The data requirements to calculate SMAM are:

(a) the given area’s population and

(b) the never married population aged

15-54 by age and sex.

The steps are: …



1. Derive the percent single or never married by age group 15-

19 to 50-54;

2. Sum up the percent single from age group15-19 to age group

50-54 and multiply the sum by 5;

3. Add 1,500.

4. Average the percentages for age groups 45-49 and 50-54;

5. Multiply the result of (4) by 50;

6. Subtract the result of (5) from (3);

7. Subtract the result of (4) from 100; and

8. Divide the result of (6) by the result of (7)

Steps to calculate SMAM



SMAM: Sample Database

Table 7. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE, BATANGAS CITY, 2010

Age

Pop’n

Male

Pop’n

Single

Pop’n

Percent

(%)

Female

Pop’n

Single

Pop’n

Percent (%)

All Ages

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

68,254

10,153

9,036

7,509

6,654

5,629

4,713

3,405

2,791

34, 585

9,929

7,273

3,437

1,362

540

327

175

147

97.80

80.49

45.77

20.47

9.59

6.94

5.14

5.27

69,894

10,075

9,136

7,610

6,558

5,534

4,676

3,497

3,031

32,526

9,354

5,786

2,452

1,083

614

495

383

338

92.84

63.33

32.22

16.51

11.10

10.59

10.95

11.15



SMAM: Computation

MALE FEMALE 1) 271.47 1) 248.69

2) 271.47 x 5=1,357.35 2) 248.69 x 5 = 1,243.45

3) 1,357.35 + 1,500 = 2,857.35 3) 1,243.45 + 1,500 = 2,743.45

4) 5.14 + 5.27 = 10.41 ÷ 2 = 5.205 4) 10.95 + 11.15 = 22.1 ÷ 2 = 11.05

5) 5.205 x 50 = 260.25 5) 11.05 x 50 = 552.5

6) 2,857.35 – 260.25 = 2,597.1 6) 2,743.45 – 552.5 = 2,190.95

7) 100 – 5.205 = 94.795 7) 100 – 11.05 = 88.95

8) 2,597.1 ÷ 94.795 = 27.39 or 27 8) 2,190.95 ÷ 88.95 = 24.6 or 25



POPULATION PYRAMID



Three General Types

of Population Pyramids

1. Expansive

2. Constrictive

3. Stationary



The expansive pyramid has a broad base that indicates

high fertility.



The constrictive pyramid has a base that is narrower than

the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population

growth.



The stationary type of pyramid has a base which is

approximately equal to each subsequent age group, tapering at

older ages. It indicates a moderate proportion of the children,

a relatively large proportion of persons in the old ages and a low

population growth.

Rapid Growth

Indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the younger ages.

Slow Growth Reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the population in the younger ages.

Zero or Declining Growth

Populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.

Measures of Urbanization

• Gross Population Density is expressed as the

number of persons per unit of land area, usually in

hectares or square kilometers.



• Net Population Density is the ratio of population to

the total area of arable land. An arable land, for

convenience, is defined as the total land area of

lands classified as “alienable and disposable



Urban Population Density



Level of Urbanization in percent



Tempo of urbanization in

percentage points



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

SOCIAL SECTOR USE

OF POPULATION DATA

Education



Interpolation Technique -  also used in reclassifying the NSO population groupings into

the desired school-going age population group

School-going age population:

 

   

 

Primary – 7 to 12 years old Junior HS – 13 to 16 years old Senior HS – 17 to 18 years old Tertiary – 19 to 22 years old

Measurement of School-Going Age

Population (6-21 years old)



AgeGroup Number

Under1 11,285

1-4 40,303

5-9 41,109

10-14 33,317

15-19 28,481

20-24 23,376

25-29 18,808

30-34 15,584

Total 212,263

Ages 5-9 = 4/5 x Population age group 5-9

= 4/5 x 41,109 = 32,887 Ages 10-14 = 1/5 x Population age group 10-14 = 1/5 x 33,317 = 6,663 Total Primary School-Going Age Population = 32,887 + 6,663 = 39,550

Illustration:

a. Compute for the primary school going age (6-10) population



SPRAGUE MULTIPLIER AGE GROUP POPULATION


Compute for the Junior HS

(13-16 years old) school-

going age population using

the:

a. Interpolation Technique

b. Sprague multiplier

YEAR 2015

All Male Female

Measurement of School Going-Age Population

and Present Enrollment

School Going Age Population of Relevant Age Level

EPR =

No. of Enrollees by Level

1. Calculation of Current Enrollment Participation Ratio (EPR)



Illustration:

Given: School going-age population in the primary level (6-10) = 10,000 No. of enrollees in the primary level = 1,500

EPR = 9,500 x 100

10,000

= 95.00%

For every 100 children aged 6-10 years, 95 are enrolled and 5 do not go to school.



Measurement of School Going-Age Population

and Present Enrollment



Measurement of Literacy Rate

Population (10 years old and over)

Population who have completed a year in elementary

LR =



Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/

Classroom Facilities

No. of Enrollees No. of Primary School Teachers STR =

Illustration: 53: 1 = 12,149 231

1. Calculation of Student-Teacher Ratio (STR)

There is one teacher available for every 53 students

(STD = 1:50) Short Course on Environmental Planning


2. Calculation of Student-Classroom Ratio (SCR)

No. of Enrollees No. of Classrooms

SCR =

Illustration: 38:1 = 12,149 268

Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/

Classroom Facilities

One room for every 38 students (STD=1:50)



Housing



Computation of Housing Need



Housing Need

Projected Housing need = New Household + Service Backlog

New Housing need = New population / Average HH size

Backlog: 1. Doubled – Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) – No. of Housing Units (HU)

2. Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials

3. Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/Nipa/ Anahaw, asbestos and others (NSO data on Occupied HU by construction materials)

4. Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per NSO data)

5. Others

Social Welfare



Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities

1. Day Care Center

2. Senior Citizen Care Center

3. Day Center for Street Children 4. Temporary Shelter for Women 5. Reception and Study Center 6. Family Life Resource Center

7. Early Childhood Development Resource Center



Tool 2: Clientele Projection of Social Welfare

Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000

Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000

Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000

Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele

Population (Current Population)

= 16,000 x 2,000/15,000 = 2,133



Protective Services



Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment Related to

Peace and Order Condition

1. Police/Firemen

2. Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary)

3. Police and Fire Facilities

4. Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails

5. Fire Incidence



Tool 2: Determination of Police Force

Size of Police Force

Total Population

Policeman to Population Ratio = 40/60,000 = 1:1,500

Each Policeman in the locality serves at least 1,500 inhabitants

Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons

Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000

Police Force =



Tool 3: Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio

Fireman-

Population = No. of Fireman

Ratio Total Population

Fire Population Ration = 6/60,000 = 1:10,000

One fireman serving 10,000 people

City/Large Municipalities – 1 Fireman: 2,000 people

PNP standard – 1:500



a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio

for Policemen

PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen

b. Current Police = Total Population Demand -

Force Requirement Actual No. of Police Force

CPF = 120 – 20 = 100 policemen

1. Population Demand for Policemen

Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement



b. Current Firemen

Requirement = Total Population Demand -

Actual No. of Firemen

= 120 – 20 = 100 firemen

a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio

for Fireman

PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 firemen

2. Population Demand for Firemen




PPF = Projected Population Standard Number of Police

Force to Population Ratio

3. Projection of Police Force Requirement

X




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THANK YOU!



DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS · segment of population to total population using actual/latest census...

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