Reading – Met Office collaboration

Reading RAPUniversity: R Hogan, P-J van Leeuwen, K Shine, A O’Neill, R Sutton, S Gray, J MethvenMet Office: R Kershaw, D Barker, P Stott

Science themes1. From processes to parameterisation to future models2. Advanced data assimilation3. High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling4. Multi-scale predictability and ensembles 5. Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate

through observation and process understanding6. Application of the science of climate and its application in

adaptation and mitigation decision-making 7. Space weather

Diabatic influences on mesoscale structures in

extratropical stormsWhat is the origin, structure, and dynamical consequence of diabatically-generated flow anomalies in cyclonic storms and what are their consequences for rainfall and surface winds?A. Observations and detailed modelling

– Observational campaign in four phases (aircraft and radar)– Doug Parker, Sue Gray, Peter Knippertz, Dave Schultz– Roy Kershaw, Phil Brown, Jon Taylor, Malcolm Kitchen

B. Parametrization of physical processes– Convection in cyclones, ocean & BL fluxes, latent heat release in

clouds– Bob Plant, Ian Renfrew, Tom Choularton– Humphrey Lean, Paul Field

C. Predictability at the mesoscale– Ensembles and DA, balances at small scales, link to precipitation– John Methven, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Ross Bannister– Sue Ballard, Nigel Roberts, Richard Swinbank, Dale Barker

Data Assimilation • Confronting atmospheric models with observations

– Kelly/Migliorini/Lean - Improving the use of satellite atmospheric motion vectors in high resolution NWP (EUMETSAT fellow)

– Eyre/Pavelin/Migliorini - improved methods for presenting satellite radiance information to NWP systems – EUMETSAT/CASE

• Land data assimilation– May workshop - Mason/Garcia-Pintado/Gurney - Macpherson/Barker– Reading recently hired new Lecturer Tristan Quaife

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land data assimilation– Haines integrating project + Lawless, van Leeuwen,

Matthews/Barker

• Convective-scale data assimilation– Balance, ensembles, covariances: Dance/Bannister/Ballard

• Opportunities for expanded collaboration– COPE – convection field campaign and DA– Space weather – assimilating STEREO obs. into a solar wind model

© Crown copyright Met Office

Improving radar assimilation &

nowcasting• Radar attenuation is the big problem in quantitative estimates of

rainfall• Can lead to substantial underestimates in severe flooding events

– Anthony Illingworth, Rob Thompson, John Nicol

– Malcolm Kitchen, Tim Darlington, Sue Ballard, Jacqueline Sugier

• New idea: attenuating targets also emit microwaves and total attenuation can be estimated from increased receiver noise

• Met Office shortly to fund Rob Thompson to evaluate this

• Future work: assimilation

Wimbledon storm 28 June 2011

– Emission indicates total attenuation up to 7 dB

– Corresponds to a factor of 3 underestimate in rainfall which can now be corrected

• Also collaboration on assimilation of refractivity and insect winds

Forecast 3D storm structure

3D structure observed by Chilbolton

DYMECS Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms

Robin Hogan (PI), Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein, Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean, Emilie Carter– Gathering statistics on hundreds of storms and tracking their evolution with radar– Will statistically evaluate the evolution of storm size, rain rate, ice water content,

updraft strength in UM, plus testing new configurations and higher resolutions– Application successful to use mOnSoOn

Met Office 1.5 km model

National radar network rainfall

16.00 on 26 August 2011

Ra

in r

ate

(m

m h

-1)

Radar observations

Forecast plan-view of rainfall

Process Studies

Predictive tools• Strengths and weaknesses

Atmospheric Science Questions• Urban meteorology (Reading – Met Office)

– Heat balance and BL depth• Evolution of particulate matter

– Size, composition & processing • Evolution of gas phase

– Emission, oxidation & processing

Health Drivers

• Particulate matter

• Ozone and NOx

• Heat waves

Measurement strategy

• Establish infrastructure

• Long-term measurements to investigate seasonal variations

• IOPs for process studies

• Link to ACTUAL Urban Atmospheric Laboratory obs

NERC consortium led by Reading (Stephen Belcher) with 11 other

institutes including the Met Office

Atmospheric Science for Health Impacts of Urban Air

Quality

AMDAR profiles

Model development• Joint development of MORUSES urban

scheme now introduced into JULES/UM• Collaboration using mOnSoOn serviceEvaluation• Long-term UKV being evaluated using

Doppler lidar and other ACTUAL obs• Large opportunity for evaluation of AQUM

at high resolution over London with the huge ClearfLo dataset

Process studies• Boundary layer structure & depth over

London• Sea breezes & air quality• Urban heat island • Diurnal cycle

London urban heat island effect modelled using high resolution

UK (Sylvia Bohnenstengel)

Urban meteorologyJanet Barlow, Stephen Belcher, Sylvia Bohnenstengel, Sian Lane, Humphrey

Lean…

Volcanic Ash Predictions and Observations

Doppler lidars measurements at Chilbolton and Exeter have been

used to evaluate the NAME model

Dacre et al. (2011), JGRDevenish et al. (2011), Atmos. Env.Marenco and Hogan (2012), JGR

Doppler lidars measurements at Chilbolton and Exeter have been

used to evaluate the NAME model

Dacre et al. (2011), JGRDevenish et al. (2011), Atmos. Env.Marenco and Hogan (2012), JGR

The FAAM aircraft in-situ measurements of volcanic

ash have been used to evaluate the NAME model

Grant et al (2012), in prep.Dacre et al. (2012), in prep.

The FAAM aircraft in-situ measurements of volcanic

ash have been used to evaluate the NAME model

Grant et al (2012), in prep.Dacre et al. (2012), in prep.

Volcanic Ash

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in April 2010 emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The Met Office and the University of Reading collaborated in providing urgently needed model simulations of the ash plume

The MO and UoR have collaborated on a NERC proposal (PURE) to quantify the

uncertainty of volcanic ash forecasts using a variety of statistical and physical models.

The MO and UoR have collaborated on a NERC proposal (PURE) to quantify the

uncertainty of volcanic ash forecasts using a variety of statistical and physical models.

Helen Dacre, Alan Grant, Robin Hogan, Dave Thompson, Jim Haywood, Franco Marenco, Ben Devenish

NCAS-Climate@Reading collaborations with Met Office

• High-res global modelling and applications (e.g. tropical and mid-latitude cyclones (P-L Vidale, L Shaffrey) - JWCRP post

• Attribution (R Sutton, J Gregory) including Changing Water Cycle - Joint posts & PhD student

• Asian summer monsoon (A Turner) - JWCRP post• Ocean heat uptake and sea level (J Gregory)• Atmosphere-land surface interactions (P-L Vidale)• Convection (S Woolnough) – including CASCADE project• Monthly to decadal variability, predictability and

prediction (R Sutton, E Hawkins, L Shaffrey, E Guilyardi) – joint NERC & EU projects e.g. VALOR, THOR, SPECS

• Mid-latitude storms, storm tracks & blocking (L Shaffrey, T Woolings)

• Radiation and the water cycle in models and obs (R Allan)

Development of process-based fingerprints for

attribution• Changing water cycle (Beena Sarojini, jointly funded post-doc)

– GCM experiments to unpick the competing role of CO2 rise and aerosols

• More thoroughly account for role of natural internal variability (Vikki Frith, PhD student with Peter Stott, Rowan Sutton and Ed Hawkins)

• Improved understanding of ocean heat content and sea level rise (Proposed PhD studentship with Jonathan Gregory, Matt Palmer)

Zonal mean precipitation

changes as observed (coloured lines) and

modelled (MM)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Improved decadal predictions through better use of

observational constraints• Ed Hawkins and Peter

Stott• Weight future model

predictions by their agreement with previous observational constraints (ASK) to get better decadal predictions– Figure for AR5 Chapter

11

© Crown copyright Met Office

Space weather• Coronal mass ejections have potential to knock out

satellites, kill astronauts, overload power grids…– Met Office is developing new forecasting system

• Reading has strong expertise in this area– Lots of scope for collaboration (modelling, assimilation…)– Several proposals pending with Met Office involvement

Matt Owens (Lecturer)

– Numerical modelling

– CME observations

Chris Davis (Reader)– STEREO mission

PI– Ionospheric

physics

Prof Mike Lockwood– Long-term solar

variations– Magnetosphere– energetic particles

Some key challenges to address by theme

1. From processes to parameterisation to future models• Boundary-layer clouds, deep convection, ocean mixing, radiative

transfer• New dynamical core development (GUNG-HO project)

2. Advanced data assimilation• Convective-scale data assimilation (e.g. FLOOD opportunity)• Making use of new observations (clouds, refractivity, radar

polarization…)3. High-resolution convective- and urban-scale modelling

• Enabling COPE science to go ahead• Collaboration on AQUM at 1.5 km in urban areas

4. Multi-scale predictability and ensembles• Strat-trop interaction, convective-scale ensembles, exploiting DIAMET

obs…5. Attribution and seasonal-to-decadal prediction of climate through

observation and process understanding• Process-based model evaluation, also involving NCEO, NCAS

6. Application of the science of climate and its application in adaptation and mitigation decision-making • Enhance impacts prediction (e.g. flooding/crops) via better links to

Walker Institute7. Space weather

• Data assimilation and space weather collaboration at Reading• Met Office investment: 1.5 FTEs – enough to build new capability?