RBC Capital Markets MLP Conferencecalumetspecialty.investorroom.com/download/RBC... · RBC Capital...

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RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference November 21, 2013

Transcript of RBC Capital Markets MLP Conferencecalumetspecialty.investorroom.com/download/RBC... · RBC Capital...

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RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference

November 21, 2013

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Forward-Looking Statements This Presentation has been prepared by Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (the “Company” or “Calumet”) as of November 21, 2013. The information in this Presentation includes certain “forward-looking statements”. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology including “may,” “intend,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “continue” or other similar words. The statements discussed in this Presentation that are not purely historical data are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements discuss future expectations or state other “forward-looking” information and involved risks and uncertainties. When considering forward-looking statements, you should keep in mind the risk factors and other cautionary statements included in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. The risk factors and other factors noted in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.

Our forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results and future performance may differ materially from those suggested in any forward-looking statement. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or to persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the foregoing. Existing and prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. We undertake no obligation to publicly release the results of any revisions to any such forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this Presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

The information in this Presentation is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. The information contained herein has been prepared to assist interested parties in making their own evaluation of the Company and does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire. In all cases, interested parties should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the Company, its assets, financial condition and prospects and of the data set forth in this Presentation. This Presentation shall not be deemed an indication of the state of affairs of the Company, or its businesses described herein, at any time after the date of this Presentation nor an indication that there has been no change in such matters since the date of this Presentation.

This Presentation and any other information which you may be given at the time of presentation, in whatever form, do not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Neither this Presentation nor any information included herein should be construed as or constitute a part of a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. Furthermore, no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, any information, including projections, estimates, targets and opinions contained herein, and no liability whatsoever is accepted as to any errors, omissions or misstatements contained herein. Neither the Company nor any of its officers or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this Presentation.

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Partnership Overview

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Partnership Overview

About us

Master Limited Partnership; founded in 1990; IPO in 2006;

Fortune 600 company; experienced management team

Our competency

160,000 bpd of petroleum-based specialty products and

fuels production capacity in 11 domestic production facilities

Our reach

More than 4,900 active customers (no >10% customers);

More than 3,500 specialty products sold globally

Our business segments

For the 9 mo. ended 9/30/13, Specialty Products = 59% of

gross profit, while Fuel Products = 41% of gross profit

Our sponsors

Fehsenfeld and Grube families own 100% of GP and 26%

of LP Units; actively engaged in Partnership management

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CLMT Investment Thesis

Stability with growth opportunities

Balance between diverse segments provides more stable

cash flows from operations and growth opportunities

Complementary acquisition strategy

Completed/pursuing complementary acquisitions in niche

markets; capital markets remain open

Investing in organic growth

Planned investment of $500-550 MM in growth CAPEX in

high-return growth projects in the 2013-2015 timeframe

Prudent balance sheet management

$477 MM in revolver availability and $134 MM in cash as of

9/30/13

Diverse, growing asset base

Adjusted EBITDA grew by a CAGR of ~34% in the 2008-

2012 period to more than $400 MM in 2012

Safe and reliable operations

Several facilities with more than one million worker hours

without a lost time incident

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Balanced Niche-Asset Portfolio

(1) Dakota Prairie (ND) refinery expected to come online during 4Q14. Dakota Prairie refinery capacity is not currently included in the total production capacity

figure of 160,000 bpd.

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(1)

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Levered to the Mid-Continent & Gulf Coast

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Crude-Advantaged Production Assets

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Diversified Production Slate

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Balanced production mix across fuels and specialty products

Production slate breakdown (as a % of total production)

Nine Months Ended 9/30/11

(1) “Other” includes waxes, packaged and synthetic specialty products and fuels

(1)

Nine Months Ended 9/30/12 Nine Months Ended 9/30/13

Fuels 43%

Specialty 57%

Fuels 56%

Specialty 44%

Fuels 62%

Specialty 38%

4% 4% 7% 8%

12% 14%

24% 27%

Other Jet fuels Heavy fuel oils Solvents Lubricating oils Asphalt Diesel Gasoline

9 mo./ended 9/30/11 9 mo./ended 9/30/12 9 mo./ended 9/30/13

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Diverse Specialty Products Customer Base

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Corporate Strategy

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Unlocking Value For Our Unitholders

Vertical Integration Drives Our Corporate Strategy

Focused on Growth Through Acquisition & Organic Investment

» We seek to own/operate small/mid-sized specialty products & fuels refineries that occupy niche markets

» We seek to own and operate refining assets within close proximity to cost-advantaged supplies of crude oil

» We seek to produce finished products that are sold directly to customers in markets with high barriers to entry

» We seek to produce/sell a blend of high-performance fuels and formulated (niche) specialty products

» We seek to sell finished products to a diverse range of customers in domestic and international markets

Growth Through Acquisition…

Focused on the opportunistic acquisition of

distressed assets

Focused on refining,

midstream and distribution

assets (fuels and specialty)

Focused on acquiring accretive,

strategically complementary

assets

…Growth Through Organic Investment

$500-550 million in

organic growth projects to be completed by

1Q16

Target a 2.5 year payback

on current basket of

organic growth projects

Focused on crude slate

improvements, capacity

expansions and product

enhancements

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Continuum of Complementary Acquisitions

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Organic Growth Projects Update

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Montana Refinery Expansion

Dakota Prairie Refinery (JV)

Missouri Esters Plant Expansion

San Antonio Fuels Blending Project

- Final engineering assessment completed; applying for permits

- Anticipated completion in the first quarter 2016

- Est. cost = $400 million; Est. annual Adj. EBITDA = $130-140 million

- Focused on construction of refinery foundations and tanks

- Anticipated completion in the fourth quarter 2014

- Est. cost = $75 million; Est. annual Adj. EBITDA = $35-45 million

- Phase 1: Blend up to 3,000 bpd of finished gas (completed in 3Q13)

- Phase 2: Blend up to 5,000 bpd of finished gas (complete by 1Q14)

- Est. cost = $5 million; Est. annual Adj. EBITDA = $7-12 million

- Warehouse loading and tank farm work is in progress

- Anticipated completion before year-end 2014

- Est. cost = $40 million; Est. annual Adj. EBITDA = $10 million

San Antonio Crude Unit Expansion

- Increase crude unit capacity from 14,500 bpd to 17,500 bpd

- Anticipated completion in the first quarter 2014

- Est. cost = $9 million; Est. annual Adj. EBITDA = $5-10 million

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Organic Growth Projects – Costs & Contributions

Estimated Total Cost and Adjusted EBITDA Uplift Resulting From Organic Growth Projects ($MM)(1)

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(1) Includes 50% of the total estimated Adjusted EBITDA that the Partnership expects to generate from its 50/50 joint venture with MDU

Resources with regard to the Dakota Prairie (North Dakota) refinery that is scheduled to come online during the fourth quarter 2014.

~$500-550 million

~$187-217 million

Capital Investment In Organic Growth Projects (2013-2015) Annual Adjusted EBITDA Resulting From Organic Growth Projects (UponCompletion)

Estimated Distribution of CAPEX on Organic Growth Projects By Year ($MM)

20%

50%

30%

2013

2014

2015

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Recent Developments

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Recent Transaction – TexStar Pipeline Agreement (Nov-13)

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» TexStar to build a crude oil pipeline that will directly supply our San Antonio refinery. Calumet has

entered into a definitive agreement with TexStar Midstream Logistics, L.P. under which TexStar will construct,

own and operate a 30,000 bpd crude oil pipeline system that will supply significant volumes of crude oil to our

San Antonio refinery.

» TexStar line will supply local Eagle Ford crude oil to our San Antonio refinery. Under the terms of the 15-

year agreement, TexStar has committed to install and operate the Karnes North Pipeline System (“KNPS”), an

8-inch, 50-mile pipeline that will transport crude oil from Karnes City, Texas – a major center of oil production in

the Eagle Ford shale formation - to Calumet’s Elmendorf, Texas terminal, a key supply hub for our San Antonio

refinery. The San Antonio refinery expects to receive deliveries of at least 10,000 bpd of crude oil through the

KNPS-Elmendorf terminal supply route once the line comes into service during the fourth quarter 2014.

» Anticipate crude oil transportation costs to decline meaningfully at the San Antonio refinery. As a result

of this agreement, we expect to significantly reduce its cost to transport crude oil to the San Antonio refinery,

where it currently receives crude oil deliveries by truck. Over time, Calumet expects to increase the volume of

crude oil shipped on the KNPS above 10,000 bpd, which should meaningfully contribute to incremental cost

savings.

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Recent Transaction – Acquired Crude Logistics Assets (Aug-13)

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» Acquired seven crude oil loading facilities from Murphy Oil. Acquired seven facilities in North Dakota and

Montana; financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

» Improves our ability to source crude oil directly from local producers. By purchasing increased volumes

of feedstock directly from producers, we expect to enjoy more favorable economics on select portions of the

crude oil that we purchase.

» We assumed line space on the Enbridge system previously held by Murphy. The acquired facilities are

connected at junction points along Enbridge’s North Dakota pipeline system. Calumet will have the ability to

transport crude oil directly from the point of lease, into Calumet’s newly acquired crude loading facilities and

then into the Enbridge system where it can be routed to Calumet’s refineries and/or third party customers.

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Improved Gulf Coast Refining Economics

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Gulf Coast 2/1/1 Crack Spread Above “Normalized” 4Q Levels ($ Per Barrel)(1)

Key Grades of Crude Oil Trading At a Steep Discount To NYMEX West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil ($ Per Barrel)

(1) Bloomberg, Platts; 4Q13 data as of 11/11/13

$10 $7

$5

$9

$23

$30

$13

4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13

$(15)

$(19)

$(24)

$(29) $(32)

$(20)

$(14) $(15)

$(20)

$(25)

$0

$(4) $(5) $(8)

$(12)

$(40)

$(30)

$(20)

$(10)

$-

$10

June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013

Bakken Bow River WCS

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Decline In Crude Oil Price Helps Asphalt Margins

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0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

Average Indexed Price WTI/Bbl Avg. Indexed Price of Asphalt/Bbl (National)

Indexed WTI Price Per Barrel vs. Indexed National (Blended) Asphalt Price Per Barrel

Source: Poten & Partners, Platts. Posted price market data for asphalt supplied by Poten & Partners is not necessarily indicative of the

Partnership’s actual sales price for asphalt per barrel, however, the data is supportive of the general trend in market pricing. All data as of

11/12/13.

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Declining Financial Impact From RFS

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Seeing Recent Decline In D6 Corn Ethanol RINs (Avg. price per RIN in $)

Source: Bloomberg; 4Q13 data as of 11/11/13

Renewable Fuels Standard (“RFS”) Update

» We regularly purchase RINs in the open market to cover our anticipated blending obligation under RFS

» Since July, RINs prices have declined dramatically following an EPA pronouncement on the 2014 RVO

» Gross estimated RINs obligation is expected to be in the range of 20-25 million RINs for 4Q13

» Gross estimated RINs obligation is expected to be in the range of 85-95 million RINs for the full-year 2013

» Submitted petitions to EPA for hardship waivers at the Shreveport and San Antonio refineries in Oct. 2013

» On 11/15/13, EPA announced a proposed reduction to 2014 RFS blending volumes

$0.02 $0.02 $0.04 $0.04

$0.40

$0.83 $0.86

$0.32

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

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Financial Overview

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Consistent Quarterly Cash Distribution

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(1) Distribution Coverage Ratio = Distributable Cash Flow / Cash Distributions

Maintained Quarterly Cash Distribution Per Unit During at an Annualized $2.74/unit for 3Q13

Planned Maintenance Impacted LTM Average Distribution Coverage Ratio During 2013(1)

1.2 x 1.4 x 1.5 x

1.4 x 1.4 x

1.8 x 2.0 x 1.9 x

1.6 x

0.9 x

0.3 x

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Shreveport

Turnaround

Superior

Turnaround

Montana

Turnaround

$0.475 $0.495 $0.500 $0.530

$0.560 $0.590

$0.620 $0.650

$0.680 $0.685 $0.685

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

$63 million in turnaround costs during the

nine months ended 9/30/13

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Credit Rating Upgrades in 2013

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Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Upgrade. On September 3, 2013,

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its corporate credit rating on

Calumet Specialty Products Partners L.P. to 'B+' from 'B'. They also raised

their issue-level rating on Calumet's senior unsecured debt to 'B+' from 'B'.

The '4' recovery rating is unchanged. According to the S&P report, “We base

the ratings upgrade on Calumet's increased size and geographic diversity,

while maintaining good liquidity and adequate financial ratios.” S&P

maintains a Stable Outlook on the rating.

Moody’s Investor Service Upgrade. On May 24, 2013, Moody’s Investor

Service upgraded Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.’s ratings,

including its Corporate Family Rating, to ‘B1’ from ‘B2’ and raised the rating

on our senior unsecured notes to ‘B2’ from ‘B3’. According to the Moody’s

report, “Calumet’s upgrade to B1 reflects its growing scale through organic

growth and acquisitions along with good financial discipline that has resulted

in lower leverage over time.” Moody’s maintains a Stable Outlook on the

rating.

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Key Performance Metrics

Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)(1) Distributable Cash Flow ($MM)(1)

Cash Distributions ($MM) Distribution Coverage Ratio(2)

(1) Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and

Distributable Cash Flow to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures - Calumet

Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation”

(2) Distribution Coverage Ratio = Distributable Cash Flow / Cash Distributions

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$151 $138

$211

$405

$280

2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM(9/30/13)

$99 $76

$127

$281

$63

2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM(9/30/13)

$61 $66 $94

$149

$187

2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM(9/30/13)

1.6 x

1.2 x 1.4 x

1.9 x

0.3 x

2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM(9/30/13)

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Key Credit Statistics

Debt to Capital Ratio Debt/LTM Adj. EBITDA (Leverage) Ratio

Revolver Availability ($MM) Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio

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50%

45%

49%

45%

50%

42%

YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 9/30/13

3.7 x

2.7 x 2.7 x 2.8 x

2.2 x

3.1 x

YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 9/30/13

$52 $107

$145

$341 $355

$477

YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 9/30/13

3.8 x

4.4 x 4.3 x 4.3 x 4.7 x

2.8 x

YE 2008 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 9/30/13

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Ample Liquidity To Fund Growth

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$387 million

$611 million

$32 $134

$355

$477

12/31/2012 9/30/2013

Cash Revolver Availability

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Hedging Program Helps Mitigate Market Volatility

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(1) As of Sept. 30, 2013

15,000 bpd @ $28.17/bbl

17,752 bpd @ $27.00/bbl

16,347 bpd @ $26.59/bbl

3,000 bpd @ $26.81/bbl

4Q13 2014 2015 2016

14.9 million barrels of fuels production hedged at an avg. implied crack spread of $26.93/bbl through 2016(1)

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Capital Spending (Historical/Forecast)

Replacement, Environmental & Turnaround-related Capital Spending ($MM)

Completed significant turnarounds in 2013 Completed Shreveport (1Q), Superior (2Q), Montana (3Q)

Estimated normalized CAPEX = $40-50 mm/year This includes maintenance/environmental expenditures

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$28

$57

$15

$67

2012 2013 (est.)

Replacement & Environmental Turnarounds

$43 million

$124 million

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Positioned For Long-Term Growth

Asset diversity across specialty products & fuels

Balanced mix of high-growth and

mature businesses

Significant, high-return organic

growth projects

Proven acquirer of high-return,

complementary assets

Seasoned operator with strong

safety/compliance record

Disciplined capital management

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Appendix

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Non-GAAP Financial Measures – Adj. EBITDA and DCF Reconciliation

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(1) Replacement capital expenditures are defined as those capital expenditures which do not increase operating capacity or reduce

operating costs and exclude turnaround costs. Note: Sum of individual line items may not equal subtotal or total amounts due to rounding.

LTM LTM LTM

$ in millions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3/31/13 6/30/13 9/30/13

Sales 2,489$ 1,847$ 2,191$ 3,135$ 4,657$ 4,806$ 5,074$ 5,399$

Cost of sales 2,235 1,673 1,992 2,861 4,144 4,243 4,538 4,960

Gross profit 254 173 199 274 513 563 536 439

Selling, general and administrative 34 33 35 51 102 125 139 141

Transportation 85 68 85 94 108 116 125 131

Taxes other than income taxes 5 4 5 6 9 10 11 13

Insurance recoveries - - - (9) - - - -

Other 2 1 2 7 8 7 6 18

Total operating expenses 125 106 127 149 228 259 281 304 305

Operating income (loss) 129 67 71 125 286 305 255 136

Other expenses (income) 84 5 54 81 79 104 111 71 -

Income tax expense - - 1 1 1 1 1 1

Net income 44$ 62$ 17$ 43$ 206$ 200$ 142$ 65$

Interest expense and debt extinguishment costs 35 34 30 64 86 92 98 99

Depreciation and amortization 56 62 60 63 92 102 111 116

Income tax expense - - 1 1 1 1 1 1

EBITDA 135$ 157$ 108$ 171$ 384$ 394$ 352$ 280$

Hedging adjustments - non-cash (12) (14) 19 21 (1) (4) (11) (33)

3 8 12 19 22 25 22 33

Adjusted EBITDA 127$ 151$ 138$ 211$ 405$ 415$ 363$ 280$

Replacement and environmental capital expenditures (1)

(6) (16) (24) (24) (28) (39) (52) (61)

Cash interest expense (31) (30) (27) (45) (79) (85) (91) (91)

Turnaround costs (11) (7) (11) (14) (15) (21) (48) (64)

Income tax expense - - (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

Distributable Cash Flow 78$ 99$ 76$ 127$ 281$ 268$ 171$ 62$

Amortization of turnaround costs and non-cash equity

based compensation and other non-cash items

Year Ended December 31,

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Partnership Overview

(1) Including the Heritage Group and the Fehsenfeld and Grube families or trusts established on their behalf.

(2) Owned by The Heritage Group (51%), Fred M. Fehsenfeld Jr. or trusts for the benefit of his family (19%) and Grube Grat, LLC (30%).

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Historical Financing Activities

Combined Equity and Debt Capital Raises By Year ($MM): IPO To-Date

Raised more than $1.7 billion since 2011 Funded Superior acquisition, Royal Purple acquisition; debt repayment

Equity/Debt markets remain accessible We remain focused on reducing our cost of capital

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$385

$600

$275 $250

$104 $55

$0

$309

$153

$433

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Debt Equity

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For information, please contact:

Noel Ryan

Director, Investor/Media Relations

317-328-5660

[email protected]

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