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Ford Auto Securitization Trust Ratings Raised OnFour Classes, Affirmed On 26, From EightTransactions

Primary Credit Analyst:

Peter W Chang, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-1000; [email protected]

Secondary Contact:

Mark M Risi, New York (1) 212-438-1000; [email protected]

Research Contributor:

Natasha Luthra, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

Overview

We raised our ratings on four subordinated classes and affirmed our

ratings on the five other classes from Ford Auto Securitization Trust's

series 2011-R1 and 2011-R2.

We affirmed our ratings on all classes from series 2009-R2, 2009-R3,

2010-R1, 2010-R2, 2010-R3, and 2012-R1.

The securitizations are backed by sales contracts secured by new and used

automobiles and light duty trucks originated by Ford Credit Canada Ltd.

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 6, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services

today raised its ratings on four classes of subordinated notes, and affirmed

the ratings on the five other classes from Ford Auto Securitization Trust's

series 2011-R1 and 2011-R2. We also affirmed our ratings on all classes from

series 2009-R2, 2009-R3, 2010-R1, 2010-R2, 2010-R3, and 2012-R1 (see list).

Today's rating actions reflect each transaction's collateral performance to

date, our views regarding future collateral performance, and each

transaction's structure and credit enhancement level. In addition, our

analysis incorporates secondary credit factors, such as credit stability;

payment priorities under various scenarios; and economic-, sector-, and

issuer-specific analyses.

WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT FEBRUARY 6, 2013 1

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Since the transactions closed, the credit support for each has increased as a

percentage of the amortizing pool balance. In addition, for those transactions

with 12 or more months of performance, we decreased our lifetime loss

expectations based on lower-than-expected default frequencies (see tables 1

and 2). For series 2012-R1, we maintained our lifetime loss expectation based

on the transaction's relatively brief performance history of eight months to

date.

Table 1

Collateral Performance (%)

As of the January 2013 distribution date

Pool 60+ day Current Current

Series Mo. factor delinq. CRR CNL

2009-R2 41 13.78 0.30 53.61 0.79

2009-R3 41 13.23 0.42 56.28 0.64

2010-R1 36 25.65 0.27 61.02 0.65

2010-R2 33 32.48 0.23 59.16 0.68

2010-R3 28 38.07 0.20 61.60 0.48

2011-R1 23 45.18 0.33 59.58 0.46

2011-R2 21 51.95 0.19 57.69 0.44

2012-R1 8 79.12 0.13 59.35 0.10

Mo.--month. CRRcumulative recovery rate. CNL--cumulative net loss.

Table 2

CNL Expectations (%)


Prior Revised

lifetime lifetime

Series CNL exp. CNL exp.

2009-R2 1.00-1.10 0.80-0.85

2009-R3 0.80-0.90 0.65-0.70

2010-R1 0.90-1.00 0.75-0.80

2010-R2 1.25-1.35 0.85-0.90

2010-R3 0.90-1.00 0.70-0.75

2011-R1 1.50-1.70 0.75-0.85

2011-R2 1.50-1.70 0.80-0.90

2012-R1 1.15-1.35 N/A

CNL exp.--cumulative net loss expected. N/A--not applicable.

Each transaction has a sequential principal payment structure. Credit

enhancement for each transaction consists of a combination of any of the

following: overcollateralization, a nonamortizing reserve account,

subordination and a yield supplement overcollateralization amount (YSOA) that

enhances excess spread. The credit support levels for each transaction have

grown for all outstanding classes as a percentage of the declining collateral

balance and are currently at their respective credit enhancement targets or

floors (see table 3).


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Table 3

Hard Credit Support (%)


Total hard Total hard

credit support credit support

Series Class at issuance* (% of current)*

2009-R2 Notes 5.32 51.14

2009-R3 A 5.29 65.90

2010-R1 A 5.52 28.58

2010-R1 B 2.81 18.00

2010-R1 C 1.00 10.95

2010-R1 D (0.81) 3.90

2010-R2 A 5.41 22.11

2010-R2 B 2.77 13.95

2010-R2 C 1.00 8.52

2010-R2 D (0.77) 3.08

2010-R3 A 5.52 19.25

2010-R3 B 2.81 12.13

2010-R3 C 1.00 7.38

2010-R3 D (0.81) 2.63

2011-R1 A 5.64 16.60

2011-R1 B 2.86 10.43

2011-R1 C 1.00 6.32

2011-R1 D (0.86) 2.21

2011-R2 A 5.55 14.17

2011-R2 B 2.82 8.92

2011-R2 C 1.00 5.42

2011-R2 D (0.82) 1.92

2012-R1 A 5.61 9.66

2012-R1 B 2.84 6.16

2012-R1 C 1.00 3.83

2012-R1 D (0.84) 1.50

*Calculated as a percent of the total gross receivable pool balance,

consisting of a reserve account, overcollateralization and/or subordination.

YSOA-enhanced excess spread is excluded from the hard credit support that can

provide additional enhancement.

In our opinion, the total credit support, as a percentage of the amortizing

pool balance, compared with our current remaining loss expectations, is

adequate for each of the raised or affirmed ratings.


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Our review of the transactions incorporated a cash flow analysis that used

current and historical performance to estimate future performance. Our

scenarios included forward-looking assumptions on recoveries, the timing of

losses, and voluntary absolute prepayment speeds that we believe are

appropriate given the transaction's performance to date. The results

demonstrated, in our view, that all of the classes from these transactions

have adequate credit enhancement at their raised or affirmed ratings.

In addition to our breakeven cash flow analysis, we conducted a sensitivity

analysis to determine the impact that a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario would

have on the ratings if losses were to trend higher than our revised base-case

loss expectations. Our results show that the raised and affirmed ratings are

consistent with our rating stability criteria, which outline the outer bound

of credit deterioration for any given security under specific, hypothetical

stress scenarios.

We will continue to monitor the performance of all of the outstanding

transactions to ensure that the credit enhancement remains sufficient, in our

view, to cover our cumulative net loss expectations under our stress scenarios

for each of the rated classes.

STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT

SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating

relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a

description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms

available to investors and a description of how they differ from the

representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar

securities. The Rule applies to in-scope securities initially rated (including

preliminary ratings) on or after Sept. 26, 2011.

If applicable, the Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this

credit rating report is available at

http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com

RATINGS RAISED

Ford Auto Securitization Trust

Rating

Series Class To From

2011-R1 C AA (sf) AA- (sf)

2011-R1 D AA- (sf) BBB+ (sf)

2011-R2 C AA (sf) AA- (sf)

2011-R2 D AA- (sf) BBB+ (sf)


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