Quick Mutual Fund Analysis & Market Alerts
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Transcript of Quick Mutual Fund Analysis & Market Alerts
Quick Mutual Fund Analysis&
Market Alerts
An Educational Service for those with 401Ks, IRAs, College Savings Accounts, and Mutual Fund Investments
DisclaimerThe Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service is purely for educational purposes. The Mutual Fund
Analysis Educational Service and all associated with it are not acting as licensed financial advisors,
registered broker dealers, investment advisors or tax advisors.
We strongly recommend that you consult with a licensed financial professional for all your financial
advice. The Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service and all associate with it adamantly state that
nothing in this communication constitutes a solicitation, promotion, endorsement, offer or
recommendation to buy or sell any investment, mutual fund, debt instrument, commodity, or security
as described herein.
The Mutual Fund Analysis Educational Service and all associated with it are acting SOLELY in an
educational capacity; this is NOT personalized advice timed to any specific market event and the
educational trade alert may be delayed from the time it is sent to the time it is received by the
subscriber. These services are provided for informational and educational purposes only, and no
mention of a particular security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other
security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is
suitable for any specific person.
To the extent any of the information provided may be deemed to be investment advice, it is
impersonal and not tailored to the individual investment needs of any specific person.
• If you lost 50% in the Market in year 1, then grew 50% in year 2, your investments would be even because your average annual yield is 0%.
– Year 1• $10,000 + [(-50%) x ($10,000)] = $5,000
– Year 2• $5,000 + [(50%) x ($5,000)] = $7,500
Wall Street Math
The average annual yield means absolutely nothing.It’s simply a form of misdirection.
S&P 500 Performance
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
S&P 500 Annual Yield
“Buy & Hold”Wall Street’s Big Lie
YearAnnual Yield *
Average Yield
Actual Yield
Account Value
Cumulative Contribution
1995 34.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13,411.00$ 10,000$ 1996 20.3% 27.2% 25.1% 28,154.07$ 20,000$ 1997 31.0% 28.5% 27.8% 49,985.65$ 30,000$ 1998 26.7% 28.0% 27.4% 75,995.81$ 40,000$ 1999 19.5% 26.3% 25.1% 102,773.60$ 50,000$ 2000 -10.1% 20.2% 15.2% 101,338.35$ 60,000$ 2001 -13.0% 15.5% 8.1% 96,819.83$ 70,000$ 2002 -23.4% 10.6% 0.5% 81,856.04$ 80,000$
* S&P 500
• The Goal– Maximize return on investment
• Introducing the “Market Signal”– Avoid downward market participation (to preserve capital)– Capture the majority of the upward trend (and lock in profits)
• Performance Record Since 2005*– Buy & Hold = -4%– Protect & Grow = +119%
No More “Buy and Hold”
* As of 12/31/2010
• The Approach– Monitor every mutual fund in the United States
• 23,000+ mutual funds– Analyze each fund’s performance versus the Market and
versus each other using seasonal, fundamental, technical and statistical information
• High Frequency Trading– Minimize and leverage the impact of High Frequency Traders– Anticipate market trends based on an understanding of how
traders are likely to respond to market conditions
• Not Day Trading– Only 1 to 4 entry/exit signals per year
Not Really “Timing the Market”
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Example – 401k Choices
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $144,745.49 $260,484.92Gain/(Loss) ($45,254.51) $70,484.92Portfolio - IRR -4.49% 5.47%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -9.56% 0.84%Individual Fund - IRR - High 0.63% 8.99%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
19$190,000.00
01/01/05
GuideStone
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $148,485.02 $223,995.99Gain/(Loss) $8,485.02 $83,995.99Portfolio - IRR 0.97% 8.05%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -0.86% -0.07%Individual Fund - IRR - High 2.28% 12.41%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
14$140,000.00
01/01/05
BNSF
Investment/FundNumber of FundsInitial InvestmentStarting Date
Buy & Hold Market SignalCurrent Value $260,958.74 $463,592.03Gain/(Loss) $958.74 $203,592.03Portfolio - IRR 0.06% 9.99%Individual Fund - IRR - Low -6.93% -0.13%Individual Fund - IRR - High 8.59% 18.77%
401k Portfolio Assessment$10,000.00
26$260,000.00
01/01/05
American Airlines
401k Mutual Fund Growth
Hud
son
Fina
ncial
Amer
ican
Airlin
es
BNSF
Apollo
Guide
Ston
e
Hun
tingt
on N
atio
nal .
..
King
City
MRI T
ech
Chevr
on
Armstro
ng R
eloc
atio
n
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
January 1, 2005 - December 31, 2010
Inte
rnal
Rate
of
Retu
rn (
IRR
)
• Analyze every mutual fund choice within your 401k.– Produce detail report which compares and rates the
performance of each of your mutual fund choices.
• Analyze mutual funds outside your 401k that are of interest to you.
• Provide the Market Signal which alerts you to bull, bear and/or flat signals:– Email and text
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