Queensland region construction supply and demand analysis ......2.2 The Australian economic outlook...

Queensland region construction

supply and demand analysis:

1993-2024 and quarterly

indicators to June 2016

A report for the

DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND PUBLIC WORKS

Prepared by the

National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR)

ABN: 72 006 234 626

416 Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria, 3068

Telephone: (03) 9488 8444; Facsimile: (03) 9482 3262

Email: [email protected]

August 2014

PJB1151-QDH&PW-Annual report/QldDPW/2014/July

While the National Institute endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.

Contents

Page no.

Executive summary i

1. Introduction 1

2. The economic outlook for the world, Australia and Queensland 2

2.1 The world economic outlook 2 2.1.1 Political risk 2 2.1.2 Economic policy 4 2.1.3 The permanent loss of capacity 5 2.1.4 When will interest rates rise 5 2.2 The Australian economic outlook 7 2.2.1 Gross domestic product 7 2.2.2 The balance of payments 8 2.2.3 Household savings ratio 9 2.2.4 Employment and unemployment 10 2.2.5 Inflation and wages 10 2.2.6 Interest rates 10 2.2.7 The exchange rate 11 2.2.8 Population 12 2.3 The Queensland economic outlook 13 2.4 Queensland housing affordability 18

3. Queensland construction activity in the Australian context 23

3.1 Queensland construction: The headline outcomes 18 3.2 Total construction: A comparison with last year’s Annual Report 19 3.3 The Queensland dwelling market 20 3.3.1 New dwelling construction 20 3.3.2 Other dwelling expenditure 20 3.3.3 Total Queensland private dwelling construction expenditures 21 3.3.4 Dwelling commencements 26 3.4 Non-residential building 29 3.4.1 Private non-residential building 29 3.4.2 Public non-residential building activity 31 3.4.3 Major Queensland non-residential building projects 32 3.4.4 Total non-residential building activity 33 3.5 Engineering construction 33 3.5.1 Engineering: The segment drivers 34 3.5.2 Mining investment and output 35 3.5.3 Engineering construction: The outlook 37 3.5.4 Major Queensland engineering projects 37 3.6 Queensland’s construction share of total Australian construction 39

Contents (cont.)

Page no.

3. Continued

3.7 The regional dimension 47 3.7.1 Brisbane 47 3.7.2 Gold Coast 50 3.7.3 Sunshine Coast 54 3.7.4 West Moreton 58 3.7.5 Wide Bay/Burnett 62 3.7.6 Darling Downs 66 3.7.7 South West 70 3.7.8 Fitzroy 74 3.7.9 Central West 78 3.7.10 Mackay 82 3.7.11 Northern 86 3.7.12 Far North 90 3.7.13 North West 95

4. Queensland construction: Resources, capacity and price pressures 108

4.1 Utilisation of capacity 108 4.2 Labour shortages 108 4.3 Queensland construction sector unemployment rates 109 4.4 Construction cost inflation 109

5. Quarterly profiles 117

Appendix A: Additional annual tables 126

Appendix B: Additional quarterly tables 139

List of tables

Page no.

E.1 Australia and Queensland gross product and construction activity indicators vii E.2 Annual growth and % contribution to construction activity by major construction segment vii E.3 Construction activity by Queensland region viii E.4 Share of total construction activity by Queensland region viii E.5 Total construction – average annual growth rates by Queensland regions ix E.6 Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2023 ix E.7 Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region x E.8 Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth at annual rates x

2.1 Formation of Queensland Gross State Product 16 2.2 Formation of Queensland population 17 2.3 Average annual population change by region 18 2.4 Housing – Brisbane City 19 2.5 Housing – Gold Coast 20 2.6 Housing – Sunshine Coast 20 2.7 Housing – West Moreton 20 2.8 Housing – Wide Bay-Burnett 21 2.9 Housing – Darling Downs South West 21 2.10 Housing – Fitzroy Central West 21 2.11 Housing – Mackay 22 2.12 Housing – Far North 22 2.13 Housing – North West 22

3.1(a) Australia and Queensland construction industry activity 41 3.1(b) Australian construction industry activity 42 3.2(a) Queensland construction industry activity 43 3.2(b) Fiscal year construction activity growth rates – Queensland CVM construction activity indicators 44 3.2(c) Fiscal year construction activity indicator contribution to total Queensland construction growth rate 45 3.3 Annual growth and % contribution to Queensland construction activity by major construction segment 46 3.4 Sector contribution to Queensland engineering construction growth 46 3.5 Formation of construction in Brisbane 99 3.6 Formation of construction in Gold Coast 99 3.7 Formation of construction in Sunshine Coast 100 3.8 Formation of construction in West Moreton 100 3.9 Formation of construction in Wide Bay/Burnett 101 3.10 Formation of construction in Darling Downs 101 3.11 Formation of construction in South West 102 3.12 Formation of construction in Fitzroy 102 3.13 Formation of construction in Central West 103 3.14 Formation of construction in Mackay 103

List of tables (cont’d)

Page no.

3.15 Formation of construction in Northern 104 3.16 Formation of construction in Far North 104 3.17 Formation of construction in North West 105 3.18 Total construction: average annual growth rates by Queensland regions 106 3.19 Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2023 106 3.20 Contribution of each region to Queensland construction growth 107

4.1 Unutilised capacity in Queensland construction sectors 112 4.2 Construction industry employment by Queensland regions 112 4.3 Queensland regional construction excess capacity utilisation rates 113 4.4 Queensland regional construction – excess demand 113 4.5 Queensland regional construction – labour shortage (+) or surplus (–) 114 4.6 Regional construction industry employment by segment 114

5.1 Value of work done: Residential new construction (including major additions) by region 118 5.2 Value of work done: Non-residential building by region 119 5.3 Value of work done: Residential other renovations by region 120 5.4 Value of work done: Residential building by region 121 5.5 Value of work done: Total engineering construction activity by region 122 5.6 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2010-11 reference year ($ million) 123 5.7 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measures 2010-11 reference year – Qtr. 3 2012-13 = 100 124 5.8 Queensland construction industry 125 5.9 Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region 125

A.1 Total regional population 127 A.2 Share of regional population in total Queensland population 127 A.3(a) Total Queensland construction by region – share of residential activity in total regional activity 128 A.3(b) Total Queensland construction by region – share of non-residential activity in total regional activity 128 A.3(c) Total Queensland construction by region – share of total engineering activity in total regional activity 129 A.4 Share of public expenditures in regional total expenditures 129 A.5(a) Queensland construction by region – share of public residential expenditure in total regional residential expenditure 130 A.5(b) Queensland construction by region – share of public non-residential building expenditure in total regional non-residential building expenditure 130 A.5(c) Queensland construction by region – share of public engineering in total regional engineering expenditure (including Commonwealth) 131 A.6 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Private housing expenditure on new construction and alterations (excluding other work done) 131 A.7 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Public housing 132

List of tables (cont’d)

Page no.

A.8 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Non-residential building private 132 A.9 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Non-residential building public 133 A.10 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Private engineering 133 A.11 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Public engineering 134 A.12 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Non-residential building total 134 A.13 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Engineering total 135 A.14 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Total residential (excluding other work done) 135 A.15 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Total public sector engineering (including Commonwealth) 136 A.16 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Private residential (other work done) 136 A.17 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Total construction 137 A.18 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure – Total construction expenditure share of State total 137

A.19 Queensland regional dwelling units commenced – Total residential units 138

B.1 Private dwelling value of work done: new construction (including alterations and additions) 140 B.2 Private dwelling: other value of work done 141 B.3 Private dwelling: total value of work done 142 B.4 Private non-residential building value of work done 143 B.5 Public non-residential building value of work done 144 B.6 Total non-residential building value of work done 145 B.7 Public sector engineering value of work done 146 B.8 Private sector engineering value of work done 147 B.9 Total engineering value of work done 148 B.10 Public dwelling value of work done 149 B.11 Total construction: value of work done 150 B.12 Total dwelling units commenced 151

List of figures

Page no.

E.1 Australian GDP and Queensland GSP vi

2.1 World Real GDP growth rate 7 2.2 Nominal and real wages growth and CPI inflation rate 12 2.3 Employment growth and unemployment 13

3.1 Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals ($ million) 26 3.2 Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals (number) 27 3.3 Queensland non-residential building approvals 27 3.4 Real Queensland established house prices 28 3.5 Queensland housing rental vacancy rate 28 3.6 Queensland housing approvals 29 3.7 Queensland – Private non-residential building work done and private non-residential building approvals 30 3.8 Excess demand for dwellings – Queensland 30 3.9 Queensland share of national population increase and national approvals 31 3.10 Queensland non-residential building approvals and work done 32 3.11 Queensland non-residential projects under construction, committed and under consideration 33 3.12 Queensland mining, LNG and metal ore investment 35 3.13 Queensland real mining output % rate of growth 36 3.14 Queensland mining investment 36 3.15 LNG expansion 37 3.16 Queensland engineering – work done 37 3.17 Queensland total engineering – work yet to be done 38 3.18 Queensland engineering projects under construction, committed and under consideration 38 3.19 Share of public engineering in total engineering 39 3.20 Share of Queensland construction industry in GSP 40 3.21 Queensland non-residential construction and private non-residential building expenditure share in GSP and GSP growth 40 3.22 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Brisbane 50 3.23 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Gold Coast 54 3.24 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Sunshine Coast 58 3.25 Queensland regional construction value of work done – West Moreton 62 3.26 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Wide Bay-Burnett 66 3.27 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Darling Downs 70 3.28 Queensland regional construction value of work done – South West 74 3.29 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Fitzroy 78 3.30 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Central West 82 3.31 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Mackay 86 3.32 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Northern 90 3.33 Queensland regional construction value of work done – Far North 94 3.34 Queensland regional construction value of work done – North West 98

4.1 Unused capacity in Queensland’s construction sector 110 4.2 Real construction costs versus labour shortage 110 4.3 Annual growth in Queensland construction employment 111

Queensland region construction supply and demand analysis: 1993-2023 and quarterly

indicators to June 2015 – June Annual Report 2014

i

Executive summary

A review of the core findings

As in the two previous annual reports, Australia’s economic growth is projected to be relatively strong over the 2015 to 2018 period, with Queensland economic growth higher than the Australian growth.

The reason for this expectation is the contribution of:

(i) current low interest rates which could go lower;

(ii) an exchange rate that is tracking down to levels with Australian cost competitiveness established (an exchange rate of around 70 cents to the US$); and

(iii) recovery in house prices and reductions in household debt to income ratios increase net household wealth,

will increase dwelling expenditures and household consumption expenditure.

For Queensland economic growth, as measured by gross state product (GSP), growth is returning to more normal levels. Dwelling construction is recovering as the accumulated population growth puts pressure on dwelling stock. Employment is slowly growing.

Looking forward there are opportunities on the horizon that should ensure that employment growth remains positive.

Queensland’s LNG construction is winding up and LNG is now heading into the production phase. However the fall may not be as hard. This phase will require ongoing reserves of gas, and the search and development of these gas fields will ensure an ongoing level of engineering construction.

There is currently over $20 billion worth of mining projects being considered for the Galilee basin and some $30 billion worth of future projects relating to the port of Gladstone including LNG, rail and port facilities. If even some of these continue to the construction phase there will be a significant softening of the landing.

Queensland was badly affected by the Global Financial Crisis, hence the economy and in particular the construction sector is poised to catch up by clearing the back log of delayed projects.



ii

1. Currently (as measured by the indicators of the March Quarter 2014) the growth rate of the world is 3%. The world has only recovered slowly from its recessionary trough rate of growth of 2% at the end of 2012 which occurred because of the withdrawal of the stimulus policies put in place post 2008. As was the case in the previous annual report there is a further downgrading of the world economic outlook following the rule that the longer the world takes to recover from the GFC the lower will be the medium to longer term growth rate. This is because the greater the fall will be in capacity in place relative to demand as low levels of investment steadily reduce the excess capacity that was created in 2009 by the severe recessions of that year. This in turn means the lower the scope authorities will have to stimulate activity. Thus instead of the near 4% growth in world GDP expected in 2016 this has now been reduced to the middle of the 3 to 4% range. Over the longer term other factors such as political risks in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia which are already starting to impact in a negative way on growth especially in the Euro zone will extend to the wider world economy. As a result post 2016 world economic growth is expected to stay within the 3% to 3.5% range.

World growth is still likely to accelerate over the short-term due to market based recoveries as the excessive debts and excess capacity created by the GFC slowly recover to more normal levels. Secondly the high unemployment rates and especially increasing youth unemployment rates are forcing policy authorities to search for ways to stimulate economic activity.

The economic conditions indicators for the European and North American economies as at third quarter 2014 are encouraging. For the IFO World Economic Survey business expectations for the next six months are the highest since the pre-GFC period. This result is mainly due however to higher North American expectations with European expectations stable in the sense of only modest growth from current levels. Housing markets have been slowly recovering at least in terms of established house prices. In short, confidence is slowly returning which indicates that the large liquidity overhang prevailing in developed countries because of policies of quantitative easing will in part be translated into increased expenditures.

Many of the developing and emerging economies will continue to expand at satisfactory growth rates.

2. Provided China continues to grow at, at least, moderate growth rates (that is, in excess of 6%), then Australia will not meltdown with a financial/balance of payments crisis as would otherwise have been possible given the world difficulties. There are macroeconomic imbalances in the Chinese economy especially in relation to debt excesses that drove house prices upwards over the past three years. House prices are now falling creating a negative wealth effect on consumer demand. However the powerful instruments available to the Chinese government means that a reasonable trend rate of growth will be maintained. However in relative terms Australia is likely to become less important as a supplier of imports.

The current Western consensus on the need to rebalance the Chinese economy by rapidly reducing investment and increasing consumption is overstated along with the contention that China has a severe debt problem. Chinese investment ratios are high being what were required for a growth rate of 10% per annum with the expectation now the Chinese planners will target a growth rate of around 7% per annum. Investment as a share of GDP will fall but less than towards the 30% to 33% range consistent with a growth rate of 6.5% to 7% per annum. This is because the Chinese economy faces considerable obstacles to growth not least being the environmental constraint to growth which will require considerable capital deepening rather than capacity expansion in terms of the investment effort.



iii

In terms of debt given that the debt is to a large extent between the government, the banks and companies that are owned by the same effective entity, the State, large-scale debt cancellation is always available if the problem started to adversely affect growth. For a country with large international assets rather than international debts any domestic debt issues can easily be neutralised by recapitalisation by the central monetary authorities. Debt levels in the private sector will constrain growth as the Government attempts to educate the citizens of the consequences of excessive debt.

Perhaps the biggest threat to the Queensland economy from China is not the overall growth outlook but the risk that coal usage quotas will be imposed as an antipollution measure. Provided the Chinese government act rationally by not discriminating against low cost foreign suppliers (that is discriminating in favour of local producers), then at least over the medium-term this risk to Queensland could be low. Longer term though it is likely to become an issue.

3. After reaching 300,000 over the 2008 and 2009 period, Australia’s immigration intake fell to 170,000 in 2010-11. Over 2012 to 2014 fiscal years Australia’s net immigration intake has recovered to around 225,000. The national population growth rate currently is around 1.7%. Over the projection period the national unemployment rate is to rise steadily reaching just over 8% by 2024. This will place downward pressure on immigration intake especially after 2017. As a result net immigration intake is projected to fall from around 210,000 in 2017 to 170,000 by the end of projection period. The population growth rate will fall gradually to 1.2% by 2024.

The national net immigration rate is projected to oscillate between 210,000 and 240,000 over the next two to three years to ensure adequate labour supply to the mining regions in Western Australia and Queensland. The national population growth will be 1.5% per annum. However, with unemployment climbing beyond 6% over the next 18 months there will be very little risk that the immigration intake will be higher.

In relation to Queensland it is expected that the Queensland population growth rate will accelerate from the 1.8 to 2.0% range of the last three years to towards 2.4% by 2016 or 2017 as immigration increases to support the recovery in employment growth and the rise in established house prices in southern states facilitates relocation to Queensland by older age households.

4. After growing between 4% and 6% over the years prior to the GFC, Queensland’s gross state product has averaged 1.1% per annum for the three fiscal years 2009 to 2011. The average growth rate of years 2012 to 2014 will be 3.6%. This rate of growth on an average annual basis will be maintained to 2018. After that date the rate of growth will decline to the vicinity of 2.7% per annum on an annual average basis.

For the national economy the profile is similar except that Queensland GSP growth rate was higher than the Australia GDP growth rate in the pre-GFC period. From 2009 the national economy also slowed but was growing faster than Queensland. For the remainder of this decade the national economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.4% before declining towards a 2.0% growth rate by the end of the projection period. The main reason for this is the expected for in the terms of trade and the consequent increase the current account deficit which given a stress high international debt will constrain longer term growth.

The drivers of a stable Queensland GSP growth rate to 2018 will be the slow recovery in employment growth, a recovery in dwelling markets and rising real established house prices leading to increased household wealth supporting the maintenance of relatively high private consumption growth rates and high mining production growth rates over the middle of this decade flowing from the current high levels for mining investment.



iv

Provided the growth rate in the world economy is no lower than what has been projected in this report, the rate of mining expansion will slow significantly over the latter part of the projection period. However the rate of expansion although being modestly positive will not be significantly negative thereby preventing a return to the low growth rates of the 2009 to 2011 period. Given the sharp downturn in engineering construction over the next couple of years with the completion of the LNG projects the Queensland growth profile is relatively strong both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of Australia. There are several reasons for this including, first and foremost the catch up effect and recovery from the fact that the Queensland economy was the most adversely affected of all Australian states during the post-GFC period, the projected fall in the currency which will help recovery in the Queensland tourist sector, that the fact that LNG plants have high import content which means that increases in other areas of construction activity only need to be $.50 in the dollar to neutralise the decline in LNG expenditures, the fact that they will be ongoing expenditures to secure gas suppliers for the LNG plants which will have a high local content, the resort to high wealth immigration and the recovery in southern states dwelling prices which will stimulate recovery in the Queensland housing construction market. Indeed it is likely that in future bulletins the outlook for the Queensland housing market will be revised upwards as in this projection there is increasing excess demand for housing over the period. Activity is constrained to affordability issues which if addressed would lead to a greater contribution of economic activity to housing than what is the case in this report.

Post 2018 issues of access to energy markets in China and India in particular will be important along with the scale of US LNG exports and their prices. At this stage a relative conservative approach has been adopted.

5. Over the past five years, that is, over the period 2010 to 2014, Queensland construction activity has grown by a cumulative 40% or 8.7% per annum. Construction activity has more than doubled in the last decade. This growth, that is, since 2010, has been the result of the expansion of engineering construction expenditure in general, and mining investment (especially LNG investment) in particular. As LNG plants are completed by 2016 there will have to be a general recovery in Queensland’s non-resource construction to compensate and simply maintain activity near current levels. This is what has eventuated with the recovery in new dwelling construction. Nevertheless, for every year from 2015 to 2024 of the projection, Queensland’s construction activity is below 2014 levels. Averaging 11% below to 2017 and then averaging 7% below through to 2024.

Over the years 2011 to 2014, Queensland’s engineering construction activity increased by an annual average of $5.7 billion a year. The bulk of this increase was driven by private engineering construction. Residential building reduced total construction by an annual average of $0.7 billion, while non-residential building reduced total construction by $0.2 billion.

The reverse growth mechanism is projected to be the case over the 2015 to 2017 period. Engineering construction expenditures are projected to contract by an average of $3.7 billion a year, while dwelling construction is projected to expand by an average of $1.5 billion a year. Non-residential building expenditures are projected to expand by $0.2 billion a year.

After 2017, engineering construction should contribute an average of $0.5 billion per year to 2024.

Non-residential building construction is projected to recover modestly with an annual increase between 2018 and 2024 of $0.1 billion annually.

Hence by the end of the projection period total Queensland construction activity is 6% below 2014 levels.



v

6. Between 2011 and 2014, an average of 75% of the total increase in Queensland construction activity was generated in the Fitzroy region. Mackay, South West, Central West and Darling Downs also experienced an expansion in construction activity, in part because of the gas supply investments associated with the LNG plants being undertaken in these regions. The South East Queensland regions, including Wide Bay-Burnett, all experienced a contraction in construction activity. Over the 2014 to 2018 period the reverse growth mechanism will apply. All South East Queensland regions, including Wide Bay-Burnett, are projected to experience an expansion in construction activity. For Brisbane, the expansion will not offset the falls of the 2011 to 2014 period. For the South West the expansion of the 2011 to 2014 period is countered by the larger contraction of the 2014 to 2018 period resulting in a net contraction over 2011 to 2018.

Combining the regions the net effect for the period 2011 to 2018 for Queensland is an expansion for total construction of $10 billion. Over the 2017 to 2024 period construction activity in the Fitzroy region is projected to expand by $0.2 billion a year, which will equal the average expansion in Queensland construction activity. Central West, Northern, Far North, South West and Sunshine Coast will all experience contraction over 2018 to 2024.

For the period 2000 to 2009 Brisbane was responsible for an average of 43% of total Queensland construction activity. By 2014 this had fallen to 27%. For the same historical period the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast were responsible for 23% of total Queensland construction activity. By 2014 this had fallen to 12%. Through 2000 to 2009 Fitzroy and Mackay were responsible for 10% of total Queensland construction activity. By 2014 this had increased to 38%. The South West has gone from under 1% to 4%.

The changes to this distribution by 2016, or even 2024, will be marginal. The Brisbane share of construction will increase to 28% and 30% by 2024 and the Sunshine/Gold Coast shares are 14% and 16% respectively by 2024. The Fitzroy/Mackay shares will be 33% and 28% respectively by 2024.

The resources boom has permanently changed the structure of construction activity in Queensland.

In 2024 Brisbane’s construction activity is projected to be 11% above 2014 levels, while the increase for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast is predicted to be 38% and 14% respectively. Construction activity in the Darling Downs is projected decline by 19%, with the falls in Fitzroy and Mackay being 30% each. Northern and Far North construction activity is projected to increase from 2014 levels by between 25% and 32%.



vi

Figure E.1: Australian GDP and Queensland GSP

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Annual % change

Australia Queensland



vii

Table E.1 Australia and Queensland gross product and construction activity indicators

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Average 2017-2024

Gross product

Australia (2011-12 =100) 94.4 96.5 100.0 102.7 105.7 108.7 111.2 122.3

Queensland (2011-12 =100) 95.0 95.8 100.0 103.6 107.2 110.4 115.8 136.3

Dwelling expenditure

Australia (2011-12 =100 102.6 104.8 100.0 98.2 102.5 114.1 120.7 109.2

Queensland (2011-12 =100) 115.2 104.5 100.0 92.6 96.2 106.8 116.2 123.4

Non-residential building expenditure

Australia (2011-12 =100) 106.4 106.6 100.0 96.2 100.0 96.1 99.6 93.8

Queensland (2011-12 =100) 104.1 110.5 100.0 90.9 95.8 95.6 98.1 102.0

Engineering construction

Australia (2011-12 =100) 71.3 76.7 100.0 113.4 110.1 105.6 106.4 116.0

Queensland (2011-12 =100) 56.7 69.2 100.0 112.0 117.2 95.3 85.2 90.6

Total construction expenditure

Australia (2011-12 =100) 87.3 90.8 100.0 105.6 105.9 106.9 110.0 110.2

Queensland (2011-12 =100) 78.0 83.6 100.0 104.2 109.0 98.3 94.8 100.5

Table E.2 Annual growth and % contribution to construction activity by major construction segment

2007- 08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014- 15

2015- 16

Annual percentage rate of change (%)

Dwellings -0.6 -8.1 -1.4 -9.4 -4.3 -7.4 3.9 11.0 8.8 Total non-residential building 5.1 8.5 4.2 6.2 -9.5 -9.1 5.5 -0.3 2.6 Total engineering construction 22.3 19.0 -5.1 22.0 44.5 12.0 4.7 -18.7 -10.6

Total construction 8.6 5.6 -2.2 7.3 19.5 4.2 4.6 -9.8 -3.5 Contribution to total construction growth (%)

Dwellings -0.3 -3.1 -0.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.7 0.9 3.1 2.8 Total non-residential building 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.1 -1.2 -1.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 Total engineering construction 9.1 8.7 -2.3 11.1 27.3 7.9 3.1 -11.1 -5.9



viii

Table E.3 Construction activity by Queensland region – 2011-12 = 100

2008- 09

2009- 10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Average 2017-24

Brisbane 103 97 100 100 83 85 84 78 88

Gold Coast 145 157 118 100 94 105 123 112 139

Sunshine Coast 101 101 121 100 78 118 110 115 131

West Moreton 152 131 112 100 102 100 99 115 168

Wide Bay/Burnett 112 119 108 100 103 98 105 106 123

Darling Downs 63 62 88 100 113 130 101 120 94

South West 24 14 36 100 110 84 46 27 21

Fitzroy 28 27 40 100 120 123 98 100 81

Central West 46 48 70 100 154 161 109 144 309

Mackay 70 78 103 100 176 199 183 119 163

Northern 97 108 91 100 105 84 85 122 153

Far North 112 90 87 100 88 93 107 102 121

North West 61 53 79 100 130 156 69 133 127

Queensland 80 78 84 100 104 109 98 95 101

Table E.4 Share of total construction activity by Queensland region (%)

2008- 09

2009- 10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Average 2017-24

Brisbane 44.7 43.0 41.0 34.4 27.5 26.7 29.6 28.4 30.0

Gold Coast 12.0 13.3 9.4 6.6 6.0 6.4 8.3 7.9 9.2

Sunshine Coast 6.4 6.6 7.3 5.1 3.8 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.6

West Moreton 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.7

Wide Bay/Burnett 3.8 4.1 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.3

Darling Downs 4.8 4.8 6.4 6.1 6.6 7.2 6.2 7.7 5.6

South West 1.5 0.9 2.2 5.0 5.3 3.9 2.4 1.4 1.0

Fitzroy 8.0 8.1 11.2 23.1 26.7 26.1 23.0 24.3 18.5

Central West 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.3

Mackay 5.8 6.6 8.1 6.6 11.1 12.0 12.3 8.3 10.6

Northern 4.9 5.6 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.5 5.2 6.1

Far North 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.6 4.0

North West 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.1 2.3 2.0

Queensland 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0



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Table E.5 Total construction – average annual growth rates by Queensland regions

1993-2012 2012-2017 2017-2024

Brisbane 4.6 -2.6 0.9

Gold Coast 3.8 5.1 1.9

Sunshine Coast 3.9 5.1 0.8

West Moreton 2.4 8.3 7.4

Wide Bay/Burnett 2.0 4.1 0.9

Darling Downs 7.7 3.2 -1.4

South West 20.2 -32.2 6.1

Fitzroy 12.4 -3.0 0.0

Central West 5.6 34.9 -15.5

Mackay 9.6 -2.8 6.9

Northern 4.9 9.8 -5.0

Far North 3.0 3.3 0.0

North West 9.7 11.4 -1.3

Queensland 6.2 -0.3 0.6

Table E.6 Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2024 (average annual $m change between span years)

2012-2016 2017-2024

Dwellings

Non-residential

con-struction

Engineer- ing

Total con-struction Dwellings

Non-residential

con-struction

Engineer- ing

Total con-struction

Brisbane 106.5 -206.4 -744.8 -844.7 13.4 98.5 272.7 384.6

Gold Coast 84.6 -38.5 -90.4 -44.2 4.9 22.6 131.8 159.3

Sunshine Coast 40.0 124.7 -196.6 -31.9 13.0 -29.4 88.8 72.4

West Moreton 6.7 1.0 -3.9 3.9 11.2 8.3 75.3 94.8

Wide Bay/Burnett -12.6 -0.2 9.4 -3.4 -14.8 9.3 52.6 47.1

Darling Downs -3.7 8.0 218.9 223.2 -11.4 7.0 -57.5 -61.9

South West 4.2 0.3 -56.2 -51.8 2.7 -0.4 -21.4 -19.1

Fitzroy 51.9 37.6 1491.2 1580.7 17.0 -12.2 -230.3 -225.5

Central West 2.0 -4.2 37.3 35.1 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 -1.9

Mackay 18.4 -65.6 171.4 124.2 -21.2 5.9 107.5 92.2

Northern 22.8 -14.9 136.7 144.6 -2.4 14.6 -41.7 -29.6

Far North 25.3 -29.9 61.7 57.1 -8.5 22.2 24.4 38.1

North West 3.4 1.4 95.5 100.3 -0.4 -3.5 31.8 27.9

Queensland 349.6 -186.7 1130.2 1293.1 5.3 142.5 430.5 578.3



x

Table E.7 Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region – number (shortage is denoted by +/surplus -)

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Average 2017-24

Brisbane 9547 605 927 3968 -9405 -4445 -6676 -15117 -10629

Gold Coast 2321 6129 -1800 -4861 -5989 -3317 1420 -2673 2555

Sunshine Coast 1363 -547 1848 -1734 -5430 2565 647 1188 2542

West Moreton 1461 197 -773 -1708 -1223 -1390 -1515 -1149 -630

Wide Bay/Burnett 329 693 -757 -1656 -725 -1208 -833 -823 -120

Darling Downs 557 -582 1110 -446 -509 243 -2221 -843 -3382

South West 1369 -422 159 -278 -55 -322 -797 -1032 -1100

Fitzroy 1898 -910 -148 6775 3466 3302 -182 -174 -3291

Central West -62 -51 88 127 208 102 -166 7 1066

Mackay 1859 284 1338 -2413 3147 2653 1083 -3954 -1289

Northern -178 1922 -364 1387 2468 -446 -601 4974 10491

Far North 2354 -203 -691 364 -2227 -1655 53 -839 1443

North West 20 -211 212 290 584 1049 -464 605 349

Queensland 22838 6906 1149 -185 -15689 -2869 -10252 -19830 -1996

Table E.8 Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth at annual rates (%)

2013-14 Sep.

2013-14 Dec.

2013-14 Mar.

2013-14 Jun.

2014-15 Sep.

2014-15 Dec.

2014-15 Mar.

2014-15 Jun.

2015-16 Sep.

Average 2013-14

and 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Non-residential building -0.5 1.6 -0.5 -3.1 -1.6 -8.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.6 -1.6

Residential building -4.2 -3.5 -1.2 -3.7 3.3 3.0 -2.0 0.7 0.7 -0.8

Engineering construction -7.0 3.2 1.2 4.3 3.7 -3.2 0.9 1.8 -0.2 0.5

Total construction -4.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 2.5 -1.3 -0.9 0.8 0.2 -0.6



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1. Introduction

This study has the following objectives:

(i) to undertake an historical analysis of Queensland regional construction activity over the 1990 decade to 2013;

(ii) to project Queensland regional construction activity to 2023; and

(iii) to analyse both historically and to project the capacity of Queensland regions to meet construction demands.

The Queensland regional analysis is undertaken at the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Statistical Division level.

Section 2 overviews the Australian and Queensland economies for the next few years. Section 3 analyses the construction sector from the national, Queensland and Queensland regions’ perspective.

Section 4 analyses capacity utilisation and cost pressures in the Queensland construction sector as well as by region.

There are two very important points to remember when reading the text. There are no nominal values used in the study. All dollar million or dollar billion values referred to are in constant prices or technically CVM prices which in this report is the prices of the 2011-12 fiscal year. Also in terms of the domestic economy the calendar years are not in general referred to unless otherwise explicitly noted. That is all years are fiscal years so 2013 would refer to the 2012-13 fiscal year. The exception is for the world economy section where all years referred to are calendar years.

An additional set of indicators, namely housing commencements, which are included in the appendix, is added to this report.



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2. The economic outlook for the world, Australia and Queensland

This chapter is divided into three segments. Each segment considers the macroeconomic environment for the world, Australia and Queensland.

2.1 The world economic outlook

Six years after the GFC the uncertainty surrounding the medium-term direction of the world economy is perhaps, except for 2009, at its highest point. The issues are straightforward. This uncertainty is manifested in the range of opinions in answers to the following questions. Will the world economy accelerate over the next 2 or 3 years as has been the long-term expectation? Will growth stay near current levels with rising unemployment and increasing political instability? When will interest rates start increasing from current low levels with negative real interest rates prevailing in a number of economies and do policies have to change, and change to what, if the world, that is the developed world in particular, is to accelerate its economic growth? Has there been a fundamental economic and political structural change in the world economy which must be addressed if growth is to return to near pre-2009 levels? In many countries firm profitability has returned to pre-2009 levels but investment effort remains very weak, thereby being a significant constraint on growth. Reasons for this are advanced below.

The impact of austerity policies are clearly seen from inspection of the world GDP quarterly growth rate profile. At the height of the stimulus introduced in response to the GFC world economic growth peaked at 5% at the end of 2010. The withdrawal of stimulus saw the world GDP growth more than halved to a trough rate of 2% at the end of 2012. Since then world GDP growth has slowly recovered reaching 3% at annual rates in early 2014.

2.1.1 Political Risk

One factor that now is getting attention, and which has been stressed in these reports over the last few years, is increasing uncertainty and thereby weakening the incentive to invest because of the deterioration in the geopolitical outlook. There is no doubt that the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and the continual threat of Russian invasion given the build-up of armed forces on the Ukrainian border has been a major factor in weakening the EU economic recovery over the course of the last 6 months. The fact that Russia contributes approximately a third of Western Europe’s gas supply, which could be cut off at a time of crisis with large economic damage, would be a factor weighing on the timing and scale of investment decisions. The current round of tit-for-tat sanctions and likely increase in the scale of sanctions is another factor reducing the short-term appetite for investment.

Unless there is a change in Russian leadership and the strategic objectives of the Russian Federation it is difficult to see how a continual decline in the security risks for Western Europe can be avoided, representing a partial return to the political economy of pre-1990.



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In North Asia the continuing disputes over islands, which is driven by the wider issue of the control of the China Sea, will not go away and can only intensify as China’s military build-up continues. In 2014 China have 50 significant naval vessels under construction, including the construction of at least one large scale aircraft carrier and two smaller carrier assault vessels. Hardly a week passes without some close encounter between Chinese military aircraft and vessels and those of Japan, the United States, or Vietnam.

It is difficult to see how the deteriorating strategic outlook in North Asia is going to be resolved, other than a sharp acceleration in the arms race between China and the rest of Asia which, if continued, could easily evolve into a post 1947 Cold War trade block regime that characterised Europe until 1990. The problem here is that unlike Russia in 1947 China is now the world’s largest trading power with extensive links to almost all countries. In 1947 Russia’s links outside its sphere of influence were very weak. At the very least, over the next decade it is likely the trading relationships between Australia and China will become more political, uncertain and volatile. It’s becoming clearer, as has been stressed in these reports in the past, that Australia has entered a long-term period where its external economic and political relationships are going to be dominated by very dangerous currents indeed.

It is the declining longer term geopolitical outlook which is the main reason for the weak economic outlook for the world economy post-2017.



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2.1.2 Economic Policy

What economic policies are pursued to accelerate the growth in the world economy have a critical importance for Australia, not just because of the level of activity in the world economy, but because of the likelihood of the timing of the increase in world interest rates which will have major consequences for the Australian exchange rate and, therefore, the competitiveness of the Australian economy. With reversal of the post-2008 stimulus policies over 2011 and 2012 the main developed world policy stance has been one of austerity. By this is meant consolidation of fiscal policy deficits so as to stabilise, at the very least, the increase in the debt to GDP ratios. The central idea of this was that growth would be stimulated by the confidence this would give to the private sector that they would not be crowded out by public sector demands, low risk of future taxation rate increases, and interest rates being kept relatively low.

It is clear that almost all this policy stance will not lead to acceleration in growth in the foreseeable future. This is despite policies of so-called quantitative easing, whether central bank wise-up private sector asset backed securities to increase liquidity in the economy, lower interest rates and increase established asset prices in the hope of wealth effects and lower cost of capital stimulating investment. In short, monetary policy has now limited effectiveness because interest rates are at minimum levels. This situation was well documented in the 1930s as described by the textbook Keynesian liquidity trap.

Private sector investment has failed to respond for the simple reason that excess capacity remains high in most developed economies and, therefore, there are limited investment opportunities. Austerity policies have contributed to this by reducing demand and therefore capacity utilisation rates from levels that otherwise would have prevailed. The objective of controlling government debt, in terms of liquidity impact on the economy, has lost credibility because real interest rates are negative in a number of key economies, implying that nominal interest rates are as low as they can go. Excess liquidity is doing no damage to the world economy in terms of current inflation outlooks. It is clear that if governments simply continued borrowing from the central bank by printing money and spend on infrastructure to drive demand over the last 2 or 3 years, there would have been no increase in net government debt (central banks are part of the general government sector), no increased interest costs (since the central banks give back the interest paid to them to the government) and a significantly less increase in overall liquidity in the economy (measured by the size of the central bank balance sheets) than what has occurred under qualitative easing policies. This is not to mention the key point that for many countries underlying capacity installed would have been considerably reduced relative to demand, which would have been particularly important for the United States with a rapidly deteriorating infrastructure capital stock.

These simple points are now being more widely recognised, especially amongst the institutions that matter in setting the framework for economic policy in developed economies. That is, the IMF and the European Central Bank. In an important speech to the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August 2014, the head of the European Central bank called for greater reliance on fiscal policy to drive European economic recovery. How the German objections to this strategy can be overcome only time will tell, though rising youth unemployment rates which will trickle down into the unemployment rates of those aged between 25 and 34 over the next few years will be a powerful political stimulus to find a way through the political obstacles.

The issues are, however, more complex than simply the effectiveness of monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy. This revolves around the answer to the question of why central banks have persisted with quantitative easing despite interest rates being at minimum levels, even though the ECB has introduced negative interest rates on bank deposits at the ECB. The answer to this is that central banks have been targeting the exchange rate attempting to stimulate growth by a lower currency.



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Unfortunately, when all the major developed economies embark on such a policy its effectiveness is blunted with the exception of winning market share from smaller countries such as Australia, which continue to target the inflation rate rather than the exchange rate and, therefore, continue to have over-valued currencies, stagnant price sensitive non resource exports and increasing import penetration.

It is assumed that there is, in Europe at least, a shift in emphasis from monetary policy to fiscal policy. However the shift is likely to be slow, only having a gradual impact on accelerating growth with the impact being noticeable at around 2016-17.

2.1.3 The permanent loss of capacity

The cost of the GFC is increasing with each passing year. For 2015 the estimate is that the loss and potential output, that is, compared to the likely values that would have prevailed in 2015 if pre-2009 potential growth rates had been maintained, is estimated at 11% for the Euro area, 5% for the United States, 10% for Japan and 12% for the United Kingdom, giving a core developed world total of 8.5%. More importantly, because of the decline in investment over this period, the actual new capacity by 2015 is estimated at 2% for the Euro area, 2% for the United States, zero for Japan and zero for the United Kingdom. This result is because actual capacity installed in 2015 will be much lower than what would have been installed if pre-2009 growth rates had been maintained. If these estimates are correct it indicates the capacity by the policy authorities to grow demand to stimulate their economies. This feature is built into the projections of this report.

More importantly, the post-2009 outcomes are also likely to have reduced the underlying growth in potential output because of lower rates of innovation, lower rates expenditure on R&D, decaying workforce skills of those forced into the long-term unemployment, and lower productivity growth rates stemming from simply lower growth overall as economies of scale and scope that otherwise would have been achieved have not materialised. It has been estimated that the underlying capacity growth rate has fallen from 2% to 1% in the Euro area, 1.4% to 0.8% for Japan, 2.6% to 2.2% for the United States and 2.7% to 1.9% for the United Kingdom. These declines were lower than the longer term potential of the world economy, as is captured in the longer-term projections for these economies in the attached table.

2.1.4 When will interest rates rise – the use of macro prudential tools?

What is now widely recognised is that the worst possible thing for the developed world economies would be to increase interest rates to correct for sector imbalances, such as rapidly increasing established house prices. To avoid this there is increasing interest in using so-called macro-prudential tools to leave interest rates unchanged, but still act to correct imbalances such as overheated housing markets. Macro-prudential tools represent no more than the use of finance sector quantitative control tools that was common before the 1990s. Use of such tools would be, for example, specifying maximum loan to asset valuation ratios (that were lower than current practise), maximum loan periods, and mandated asset allocation rules in relation to mortgage based assets, liquid assets and commercial loans. In mid-2014 the New Zealand central bank applied macro-prudential rules to stabilise the domestic housing market. The UK central bank is also slowly expanding the use of such rules.

There will be upward pressure on interest rates, however, if, for the only reason that quantitative easing will have to be wound back to avoid large increases in risk in finance enterprise balance sheets. The expansion in quantitative easing has allowed large-scale financial engineering to occur, particularly in derivative markets. As of pre-2008, no-one is sure of what risks are being built up,



6 6 6

especially for investment strategies and products that don’t take account of increases in interest rates. It is this fact that leads some to conclude that if left unchecked the current policies will lead to another GFC four or five years down the track.

Thus, the expectation is that the withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, for example, will force interest rates up over the second half of 2015. A poorer economic outlook than what is currently expected may well postpone this into 2016, especially if macro-potential tools are employed to target financial stability.

In viewing the current evidence it is likely that the significant upward shift in interest rates will be postponed, at least to the end of 2015 and probably into 2016, with the increase being less than what was previously expected because of the likelihood that key developed economies will resort to quantitative control measures and, secondly, because of the increasing loss capacity in most developed economies relative to pre-2009 trends which will be reflected in steadily increasing real unemployment rates, if not in the headline unemployment rate.

Nevertheless, the negative fallout from the ending of quantitative easing and the increase in interest rates is likely to cause economic costs being imposed on both developed and developing economies, simply because of the build-up of excessive debt and risky financial products that have occurred over the last two to three years. These costs will be realised over the 2016 to 2018 period, which is yet another reason for expecting the economic outlook at the end of this decade to be somewhat subdued.

The emerging economies that are most likely to be impacted on from the ending of quantitative easing and the rise in interest rates are the so-called “Fragile Five” economies of:

Argentina;

Brazil;

Indonesia;

Turkey; and

South Africa.



7 7 7

Figure 2.1: World Real GDP growth rate

2.2 The Australian economic outlook

2.2.1 Gross domestic product

The current underlying growth of Australian GDP is 0.7% per quarter, or just under 3% per annum.

The expectation would be that with the production effects of the mining expansion being particularly strong over the next couple of years, with the completion of major LNG projects along with coal and iron ore enhanced supplier coupled with the upswing in housing construction, Australia’s economic growth would be in the vicinity of 3.5% to 4% over the next couple of years. It is true that mining investment is projected to fall by between $30 and $40 billion over the next couple of years. However, a large part of this fall will represent expenditures, especially on LNG plants, with very high import component. Therefore, the impact on domestic economic activity will be relatively subdued.

Note in the discussion below all years of fiscal years ending.

It can be seen from the attached table that dwelling investment is projected to add 0.7 percentage points to the national GDP growth rate in 2015. In 2016 the impact of the dwelling cycle peaks with 0.1 percentage points added to the national GDP growth rate and for the rest of the projection period dwelling makes a negative contribution. In 2014 exports are estimated to have contributed over half of the GDP growth rate with the contribution being 1.6 percentage points, compared to the estimated national growth rate of 3%. In 2015 the contribution of exports is projected to fall to 0.8 percentage points, largely because of the impact of mild El Niño, which will reduce the impact of an otherwise continually strong mining contribution. A 1 percentage point plus contribution to the

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Per

cen

t



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national GDP growth resumes in 2016 with the average contribution over the four years to 2019 being 1.4 percentage points.

The contribution of private consumption expenditure, although increasing marginally in both 2015 and 2016 by 0.1 percentage points in both years, is well below the pre-2009 contribution of an excess of 2 percentage points per annum. Traditionally, with strong growth in dwelling prices and real wealth, the expectation would be that private consumption would add additional growth of up to 1 percentage point to GDP. Why is this not being predicted?

There are a number of elements contributing to this outcome. Firstly, productivity growth is low due to short and long-term factors. Long-term factors include the under-investment in infrastructure, while short-term factors include the hollowing out of the Australian economy due to the so-called Dutch disease which appears to have destroyed more middle income and employment as compared to low income and employment. Secondly, the steadily increasing underlying unemployment rate is operating to hold down the growth in nominal wages, resulting in relatively low growth in real wages. Thirdly, household debt at around 190% of real disposable income appears to be at saturation levels so that consumption expenditure is constrained to real income growth.

Given the decline in mining investment, the contribution of total business construction investment to economic growth over the next couple of years is negative, but only marginally so.

Other than the sluggish growth in household consumer demand, the other main reason for a subdued national GDP growth rate over the next 2 to 3 years is the growth in imports. This will be associated with the ending of motor vehicle production and the echo effects of the high exchange rate over the last 3 or 4 years, which will result in the further closure of import competing capacity. Over the next two years, that is, over 2015 and 2016, the growth of import penetration is projected to reduce the national GDP growth rate by 1.2 percentage points per annum.

The post-2016 period is projected to be a period of particularly low GDP growth compared to the historical benchmarks. This will be the result of the mining sector returning to more normal contributions to GDP growth, the continued upward increase in effective unemployment rates squeezing real income growth, higher effective interest rates rendering a negative contribution of housing and business investment to national GDP growth rate, the return of the exchange rate to more competitive levels increasing domestic prices and thereby reducing real incomes, and the lower productivity growth rates that are the direct by-product of a relatively slow growing economy. The scope for Australian policy authorities to do much about the less than satisfactory profile post 2016 will be limited by the upward trend in the current account deficit and gross debt to GDP ratio. Any attempt to increase the national GDP growth rate by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies will increase the probability of a meltdown to unacceptable levels, given the high probabilities that currently exist.

2.2.2 The balance of payments

The current account deficit, especially after 2016, is projected to deteriorate over the projection period. This deterioration will be driven by a number of factors. Firstly, there is the projected long-term fall in the terms of trade, a combination of lower world economic growth compared to expectations of 2 or 3 years ago, coupled with the supply response from recent peaks in commodity prices, that will combine to drive down real commodity prices. In part this will be because Australian producers, for iron ore in particular, are amongst the lowest cost producers in the world so there is an incentive, especially if they have a degree of domestic ownership, to increase production to drive down prices and increase market share knowing that the price effect will be compensated for likely



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falls in the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the fall in the terms of trade from the 2012 peak is a relatively modest 20%, given the pre-2004 terms of trade.

The rapid increase in income paid overseas over the next few years is driven by the recovery in world interest rates and the high mining income share that will be paid overseas because of the high foreign debt and foreign ownership of recent major mining projects.

Finally, there is the increased import penetration in the economy, due to the Dutch disease in general and the collapse of the motor vehicle industry in particular. Moreover, the medium-term impact of a lower currency is likely to aggravate the current account deficit rather than reduce it. This is because of the impact of the exchange rate on Australia’s foreign debt obligations and debt service ratios and the limited capacity that now exists in Australian manufacturing for import replacement. The oft quoted J curve effect will in fact be more like an L curve effect for much of the projection period.

2.2.3 The Household savings ratio

A core driver of the household savings ratio is the household debt to income ratio. With the rise in the household savings ratio at the end of 2009, the household debt to income ratio has stabilised. In the December quarter 2009 the household debt to income ratio was 180% of net household income. In the March quarter 2014 it was 185%, only slightly down from historical peaks in 2011. A ratio of around 185% from the historical record appears to represent a ceiling, or debt saturation level, of debt given current debt service ratios.

A basic assumption of the previous projection was that the recovery of dwelling prices and the flow-on impact on wealth would encourage a downward trend in the household savings ratio and, therefore, an accelerated consumption growth that would drive national GDP growth to the 3% to 3.5% range over 2015 and 2016. Given the stability of the household debt to income ratio at the current household savings ratio, this assumed that households would be willing to increase the debt to income ratio.

To 2016 the household savings ratio is projected to be reasonably stable at near its current levels. It should be remembered that the constructional savings ratio through superannuation commitments is also near the current net savings ratio, implying a zero discretionary savings ratio.

Post 2016 the downward pressure on real income growth and increases in the debt service ratio are projected to place downward pressure on the household savings ratio as households attempt to maintain living standards, as reflected in per capita consumption expenditure by reducing savings.

The savings ratio is projected to halve towards the end of this decade.

The immediate question is how is this to be financed? Savings ratios below current levels imply a zero discretionary ratio and, therefore, negative discretionary ratios imply, in the first instance, resorting to additional debt to finance consumption. However, debt to income ratios are currently near saturation levels.

The answer to this is that financing occurs by changes in the structure of household disposable income, which in turn will result in increasing inequality in the distribution of household income. The rise in domestic and foreign interest rates and the decline in the currency will increase real income of households reliant on property income, especially if there is a significant share of their assets invested overseas. The consumption expenditure of these households will increase disproportionately to their increased income because of the positive wealth impact on their expenditure decisions.



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In relation to other households, the current discretionary savings ratio is distributed across households with a mean near zero. The overall savings ratio can decline without undue reliance with further build-up in household debt if those households with a positive discretionary savings ratio reduce their discretionary savings ratio to near zero, while those households with a negative discretionary savings ratio remained largely unchanged.

2.2.4 Employment and unemployment

The projection for employment growth is one of a little over 1% average per annum for the next two years, although declining to 0.8% by the middle of 2016. A modest recovery to 1.3% per annum by the middle of 2018 is forecast, before declining to 0.6% by the end of the end of this decade. As the growth rate in employment is, in general, less than the working age population growth rate, the unemployment rate steadily increases reaching 7.5% by the end of the decade and over 8% by the end of the projection period.

In absolute terms, arguably the more important indicator in terms of political sensitivity, the level of unemployed is projected to reach 850,000 by the middle of 2016, 900,000 by the middle of 2019 and the politically sensitive benchmark of 1 million by the end of the decade.

2.2.5 Inflation and wages

The steady increase in the unemployment rate and the projected increase in the unused capacity capital stock rate will combine to hold the inflation rate, measured by the CPI, at moderate trend levels of approximately 2% per annum over the next two years. This outcome is assisted by only a modest reduction in the exchange rate to around 85 cents to the United States dollar. However, the fall in the currency begins to accelerate significantly after 2016, which will contribute directly to accelerating the inflation rate.

In addition, there is a limit to the extent that profit margins can be suppressed and the anti-inflation compression of profit margins will weaken, even if capacity utilisation rates continue to fall. In addition, once the exchange rate begins to fall significantly, profit margins can be expected to increase significantly in trade exposed industries.

Thus, from 2016 onwards the inflation rate is projected to increase steadily, reaching 3.5% by 2018, at which point real wages will be declining by 0.6% per annum. The stabilisation of the currency at near the purchasing power parity terms after 2018, with the unemployment rate settling at around 7%, will combine to restore the inflation rate at the midpoint of the current RBA acceptable range for inflation.

2.2.6 Interest rates

Currently there are two views in the market in relation to the short-term outlook for interest rates. One view is that the slow growth in the economy and the increasing unemployment rate will induce the RBA to reduce interest rates by the end of this year. The additional benefit of this is that it will lower the currency, thereby being an additional stimulus to growth. The other view is that the next move in interest rates will be upwards, although this may be put off well into 2015. This view contends that interest rates would be lowered because it risked giving even further stimulus to housing markets with the risk of higher excessive debt growth and structural imbalances in house



11 11 11

prices. The proponents of macro-prudential regulation argue that if resort was made to these tools the housing market could be controlled and interest rates reduced.

The projections in this report accept the view that the next move in interest rates will be upwards, though postponed to the end of 2015.

After 2015 the increase in nominal interest rates will be modest, being targeted at maintaining the minimum margin over world interest rates to prevent the collapse in the currency. That is, interest rates are not predicted to increase above 4.5% despite a lengthy period over 2017 to 2019 where inflation is above 3%. This is due to the low growth and high unemployment rates prevailing over this period, where lower real interest rates will be used as a policy instrument to maintain minimal GDP growth at a level that will prevent a rapid acceleration in the growth and employment.

The post-2016 period will be a very difficult time for monetary policy with low natural drivers of growth (with the ending of both the production and investment strong stimulus from mining expansion), inflationary pressures from the decline in the currency, and high current account deficits. The meltdown risk will be an unstated but prominent consideration during this period. It is during this period that secular stagnation risks will become as referred to in the Australian context as it is currently being referred to in the US and European context.

The projection does adopt the assumption that resort is made by the RBA and its allied monetary institutions to introduce a degree of reregulation to keep the housing markets within the bounds projected in this report.

2.2.7 The exchange rate

As in previous reports, the two factors of:

(i) a long-term soft outlook for the world economy; and

(ii) the increase in the import propensity of the Australian economy via the destruction of manufacturing capacity, in conjunction with the ending of the strong stimulus from mining expansion,

will combine to ensure a decline in the Australian dollar. However, the weaker economy and the decline in mining investment will offset the combined impact of the two factors listed above.

The lower domestic interest rate profile of this projection is partly offset by a lower world economic outlook and, therefore, lower world interest rates, for reasons given above, compared to what was projected in the last Bulletin at the end of 2013.

As a result, there is little change to the projected profile in the exchange rate.

Eventually foreign investors will be forced to realise that beyond the strong mining expansion phase such factors as high wealth immigration cannot disguise the fact that the Australian economy does not have the strength of broad-based drivers of the sustainable growth at historical standards other than the restoration of competitiveness by a low dollar. It is hoped that this revaluation does not lead to a weakening of the expectation that foreign lenders will eventually be repaid.

Therefore, the expectation is that the $A/$US exchange rate will return to its purchasing power parity rate of around $0.68 to $0.70 later in this decade.

However, given the vulnerability of the Australian economy, the downward adjustment could be very sharp and at any time which would involve a reduction to the 40 to 50 cent range to the United States dollar over a 6 to 12 month period. Such an adjustment may well trigger a crisis which would take the economy on a very different trajectory than what is being outlined here. In terms of the



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projection, if such a crisis was to occur it would seem logical to be around 2019 when a strong El Niño is projected to occur, as distinct from the weaker one predicted for 2014.

2.2.8 Population

There has been only marginal downward adjustment in the population growth rate. Currently, the net increase in the population is averaging a little below 100,000 per quarter. Due to the steadily deteriorating labour market, this quarterly increase is projected to decline by 84,000 by early 2016.

The high unemployment rates at the end of the projection period are expected to reduce the increase in the national population to less than 60,000 by the end of the projection period.

That is, over the projection period the annual rate of growth of population will halve from current levels. This has been the outlook for some time in these reports.

There is a possibility that the rules that have dominated, which are determining Australian immigration rates, will move away from those rules which have dominated over the last 30 years in determining Australian immigration levels. That is, away from local employment conditions to other drivers. Amongst these drivers would be the strategic objective of integrating with Asian supply chains and reliance on high wealth immigration drive local demand. These policy objectives are evident in current immigration settings which have not, up to this point in time, responded as they would have in the past to the steadily rising unemployment rate. The ability to sustain these policies without risking a substantial electoral backlash is problematical and at this stage such a backlash is being assumed.

Figure 2.2: Nominal and real wages growth and CPI inflation rate – cumulative four quarter span basis (%)

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Nominal wages $/hour Real wages (CPI adjusted) CPI



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Figure 2.3: Employment growth and unemployment (%)

2.3 The Queensland economic outlook

The Queensland economy, relative to the rest of Australia, was adversely impacted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Over the three years 2009 to 2011, the average annual growth rate in Queensland GSP was just over 1% per annum, compared to just under 2% per annum for the Australian economy and 2.5% for the rest of Australia, excluding Queensland. This is a reversal of the historical relative positions of the Queensland and Australian economies. In the ten years to 2008 Queensland GSP grew by an average of 5% whilst Australian GDP averaged just 3.6%

It has not been all bad. Construction on average grew faster than GSP from 2009 to 2014, buoyed by both the GFC stimulus projects and engineering sector projects such as the LNG projects.

Population has continued to grow an average 2 % per annum over the last ten years and only dipping below 1.6% in one year, namely 2011.

The fact that dwelling investment has not kept pace with population growth, indicates that there is a build-up of pent up demand. This could not be sustained indefinitely, and the indications are that the dwelling sector has returned to the growth cycle.

Similarly it can be argued that as Queensland was hit relatively hard by the GFC, there will have been some structural changes, which combined with the back-log of unrealised projects will provide just enough forward momentum to allow for a soft landing and a return towards normal GSP growth patterns.

Several factors indicate that the engineering construction cycle is not in for a hard landing as the LNG construction phase passes. The first, relates to the on-going production of LNG. The search for gas, will ensure that an underlying level of mining investment will continue, secondly infrastructure related to expanding ports is still to be installed, and thirdly if only some of the projects mooted for

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Employment growth four quarter span basis Unemployment



14 14 14

and related to the Galilee basin go ahead there would still be significant engineering construction expenditures to provide a floor on engineering construction.

Over 2013 and 2014 average GSP growth is estimated at 3.3% per annum, with average consumption expenditure dipping to 2.4%. House prices are slowly trending upwards. As a result, it is expected that Queensland consumption expenditure will improve marginally with an average 2.7% over 2015 and 2016 and reach an average of 4.1% over 2016 and 2017 as the housing recovery peaks, over 2017 and 2018 private consumption expenditure peaks at and average 5.2% per annum. Slowing real dwelling prices growth leads to more moderate consumption expenditure growth rates over the latter part of the projection period.

This consumption cycle leads to private consumption expenditure contributing 1.2 percentage points to GSP growth over 2014 and 2015, increasing steadily to reach a peak contribution of 2.9 percentage point contribution to Queensland GSP growth in 2018. Just before the GFC in 2008, the contribution of private consumption expenditure to GSP growth was 3.6 percentage points. If the projection proves correct, Queensland will not regain that level of contribution within the projection period. Over the last six years of the projection period, the growth contribution of household consumption expenditure to Queensland GSP growth is 1.7 percentage points.

Over 2013 to 2015, the contribution of government consumption expenditure to Queensland GSP growth has been low at 0.4 percentage points or one-third of the average contribution the years 2000 to 2010. The predicted acceleration in GSP growth will increase government revenues and expenditures. Over the remainder of this decade Queensland’s government consumption expenditure will be adding an average 0.5 percentage points per annum to Queensland’s GSP growth. However, over the last four years of the projection period the contribution will reduce to negligible levels.

Public investment has been reducing GSP by on average 0.5 percentage points per annum since the winding down of the stimulus programmes. Public investment will make its first positive contribution to GSP for five years adding 0.4 percentage points in 2016 the average contribution for the next three years is 0.4 percentage points. Its contribution over the 2020 to 2024 period will return to zero.

Over 2011 and 2012, on average, private investment contributed 4.6 percentage points to Queensland GSP growth. The fact that average GSP growth was lower than this despite a significant contribution from private consumption expenditure, was due to the fact that the import content was higher, reducing the net contribution. The completion of the major LNG projects will result in mining investment falling sharply and although the fall will be softened by an increase in non-mining LNG investment the private investment will reduce GSP growth by an average 2.6 percentage points over 2014 to 2016. Private investment contribution will still stay negative or negligible through to 2020. Over the last four years of the projection period, private investment is projected to make an average 0.5 percentage point contribution to growth.

Over the 2015 to 2016 period, private dwelling investment is predicted to grow at almost 11% per annum growth rates, or adding an average 0.5 percentage points to GSP growth. Over the 2017 to 2023 period, the net contribution of dwelling investment to growth is negligible.

The contribution of exports to Queensland GSP growth is represented by the contribution of the mining sector to growth. Over the 2015 to 2020 period, the contribution of mining to Queensland GSP growth will be 1.6 percentage points per annum. For the final four years the mining contribution will be an average 0.4 percentage points per annum.

Given this component contribution profile it follows that Queensland’s growth profile is one of GSP growth accelerating from 3% in 2014 peaking at 4.4% in 2017 and then falling to an average of 2.6% over the 2020 to 2024 period.



15 15 15

Employment growth averages 1.5% over the four years 2014 to 2017. The peak growth is 2% in 2018 which precedes slowing growth through to a 2023 growth rate of just under 1%.

Queensland region construction supply and demand analysis: 1993-2023 and quarterly indicators to June 2015 – June Annual Report 2014 16

Table 2.1 Formation of Queensland Gross State Product

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Annual growth – $CVM m (%) Private consumption expenditure 6.9 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.2 3.1 5.0 5.4 3.2 2.3 3.3 4.5 4.5 1.2 Government expenditure 3.9 4.3 1.9 5.1 3.8 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 1.4 -0.1 -0.7 2.9 Dwelling investment -0.6 -8.2 -2.9 -10.5 -1.8 -6.8 4.2 12.6 8.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.7 0.5 -2.4 -0.6 -8.8 -8.1 Private investment 16.0 4.9 -15.0 22.2 37.5 9.0 -8.7 -20.1 -11.3 0.2 -0.2 -5.1 -3.9 6.2 4.9 5.3 2.8 Public investment 14.4 8.5 5.8 -7.5 -1.5 -9.4 -14.2 -9.5 8.9 13.5 7.0 6.8 1.3 -2.4 -0.9 2.8 0.2 Total state final demand 7.6 1.1 -1.1 4.2 8.4 2.4 -0.7 -2.4 1.2 4.0 4.0 2.1 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.0 1.2 Net trade and stocks – percentage point contribution

-2.9 -0.1 2.4 -3.4 -4.0 1.2 3.7 5.0 2.8 0.4 -0.7 0.7 1.5 0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.9

Gross State Product 4.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 Percentage point contribution to Queensland GSP growth Private consumption expenditure 3.6 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.7 2.9 1.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 0.7 Government expenditure 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 Dwelling investment 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 Private investment 2.3 0.8 -2.4 3.0 6.2 2.0 -2.0 -4.1 -1.8 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 Public investment 0.9 0.6 0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Total state final demand 7.5 1.1 -1.1 4.2 8.6 2.6 -0.8 -2.4 1.1 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.8 1.2 Net trade and stocks - percentage point contribution

-2.9 -0.1 2.4 -3.4 -4.0 1.2 3.7 5.0 2.8 0.4 -0.7 0.7 1.5 0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.9

Gross State product 4.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 Supply side contribution to GSP growth – average annual growth rate $CVM Agriculture 5.7 22.7 -0.3 6.5 5.9 2.4 2.0 0.1 2.9 3.6 2.4 -34.6 36.3 16.6 3.2 1.3 1.3 Mining 2.8 2.1 5.1 -8.1 1.7 11.8 14.6 25.7 18.4 10.7 3.6 5.1 4.3 3.8 3.0 1.5 1.1 Manufacturing -1.2 -12.4 -4.0 -1.2 3.5 0.6 -3.0 -0.6 1.2 1.2 4.7 2.7 2.3 1.1 2.4 3.1 -0.5 Construction 12.1 2.5 -3.7 5.7 15.3 0.2 -0.6 -13.6 -4.7 1.2 0.8 -2.2 -2.6 1.3 2.2 0.8 -0.8 Tertiary sector 5.0 1.7 2.0 1.7 3.5 3.3 2.3 1.2 2.2 3.6 3.4 4.0 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.9 Total GSP 4.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 Supply side contribution to GSP growth – percentage point contribution to growth Agriculture 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Mining 0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.9 0.2 1.1 1.5 3.0 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 Manufacturing -0.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 Construction 0.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Tertiary sector 3.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 Total GSP 4.7 1.0 1.3 0.8 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.1


Table 2.2 Formation of Queensland population

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Net immigration – overseas and interstate (‘000) 54 60 37 14 40 63 68 58 58 57 57 57 56 56 56 55 56

Natural increase (‘000) 35 38 35 36 33 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 41 42 42 42

Total increase (‘000) 90 99 72 51 73 97 103 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 97 97 98

Total population (‘000) 4233 4331 4404 4455 4528 4625 4729 4823 4917 5013 5108 5205 5301 5398 5496 5593 5691

Population growth rate (%) 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7

Employment growth rate (%) 3.0 3.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7



18 18 18

Table 2.3 Average annual population change by region (‘000)

1999-2003 2003-2013 2013-2016 2016-2024

Brisbane 36.2 41.9 43.1 41.9

Gold Coast 13.4 12.2 12.2 12.1

Sunshine Coast 8.1 6.6 6.7 8.2

West Moreton 1.4 1.8 2.3 3.8

Wide Bay/Burnett 3.1 4.7 4.3 5.8

Darling Downs 2.5 2.6 3.8 4.7

South West 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3

Fitzroy 1.6 3.6 5.5 5.3

Central West -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1

Mackay 1.9 3.6 4.7 4.9

Northern 3.0 3.7 4.9 5.0

Far North 2.6 4.2 4.3 4.2

North West -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3

Queensland 73.7 85.0 92.6 96.7

2.4 Queensland housing affordability

In the annual ALGA/NIEIR “State of the Regions” reports NIEIR has developed a range of indicators to assess the affordability of housing in Australian regions. The results for the Queensland regions are attached.

For dwelling markets to be sustainable at least two criteria must be met. The two criteria are:

1. a construction cost for new dwellings that is not significantly below the average market prices for established dwellings; and

2. the expected average income from the labour market catchment must be able to support the average mortgage on new dwelling construction.

By sustainability, in this context, is meant for the region to be able to increase the supply of dwellings in line with population growth. If criteria (1) is not satisfied in that the cost of new dwelling construction is well above the average established dwelling prices, then new construction will be discouraged because of the risk of capital losses if the dwelling is on-sold within the first few years of completion.

If condition (2) is not satisfied then new households relying on income to support mortgage payments will not be able to afford new dwellings. New construction will depend on the extent new households have on wealth levels that reduce mortgage costs in line with the labour catchment income availability.

The attached tables have a range of indicators that drive local housing markets. The most important are the two indicators noted above. It should also be noted that the mortgage costs are calculated on a long-run average mortgage interest rate of 7.5%. In the short-run, mortgage costs may well be below the estimates in the tables.



19 19 19

Ideally, the average ratio of new dwelling costs to established house prices should be less than 85% to 90%, while the mortgage costs for new dwelling construction to labour market catchment average income should be no more than 35% to 40%.

The indicator values from the tables for 2014 indicate that for most Queensland regions the greenfield construction costs to established price ratio is high at near 100% or more. This is why the projected recovery in real established house prices is so important in driving the recovery in Queensland’s new dwelling construction. Currently, the only exception to this is the result for the Mackay region, where new construction costs are significantly below established house prices. This is also the region where the mortgage payments on new dwelling construction are low compared to the labour market catchment average income.

However, the key dwelling markets of the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast are in severe disequilibrium. The extent of the disequilibrium, however, is not out of kilter with the past when new dwelling construction was high. New dwelling construction was high because these two regions relied on high wealth migrants (for example, after selling dwellings in New South Wales or Victoria) to drive construction. The recovery of house prices in Sydney and Melbourne over 2013 and 2014 bodes well for the recovery of new dwelling construction in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast over the short term.

The Brisbane housing market does require the recovery in house prices and a significant recovery in employment growth for new dwelling construction to recover significantly. Employment is projected to grow on average at 1.5% over the next few years and the recovery in house prices is projected, this bodes well for a general recovery in Queensland’s new dwelling construction.

The attached tables clearly indicate why this will be the case.

Table 2.4 Housing – Brisbane City

Housing indicator 1992.3 1998.3 2002.3 2007.3 2011.2 2013.2 2014.2

Annual growth

1998-14

Average value of dwellings ($cvm '000s) 198.4 216.5 257.2 420.5 515.8 484.1 481.0 5.2%

Average dwelling prices to household disposable income (%) 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.3%

Mortgage burden on average dwelling purchase (%) n/a 20.7 21.9 31.1 33.1 29.9 29.8 2.3%

Greenfield construction costs to average dwelling price (%) 144.1 139.3 138.0 114.7 105.9 109.0 112.3 -1.4%

Catchment dwelling purchase income support ($cvm) 50670 55978 65617 78261 83803 85314 85983 2.8%

Dwelling affordability - average mortgage on existing dwelling to catchment income support (%) n/a 30.9 31.3 42.9 49.1 45.3 44.6 2.4%

Dwelling affordability - average mortgage on new dwelling to catchment income support (%) n/a 43.0 43.2 49.2 52.0 49.4 50.2 1.0%

Community services available in catchment - hours/capita 127.2 148.0 155.5 157.0 169.2 170.9 175.9 1.1%

Adult population per dwelling 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.4%



20 20 20

Table 2.5 Housing – Gold Coast


Annual growth

1998-14




Greenfield construction costs to average dwelling price (%) 133.1 124.0 131.4 104.5 108.8 118.4 123.4 0.0%






Table 2.6 Housing – Sunshine Coast


Annual growth

1998-14










Table 2.7 Housing – West Moreton


Annual growth

1998-14












21 21 21

Table 2.8 Housing – Wide Bay-Burnett


Annual growth

1998-14










Table 2.9 Housing – Darling Downs South West


Annual growth

1998-14









Adult population per dwelling 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 -0.1%

Table 2.10 Housing – Fitzroy Central West


Annual growth

1998-14












22 22 22

Table 2.11 Housing – Mackay


Annual growth

1998-14










Table 2.12 Housing – Far North


Annual growth

1998-14




Greenfield construction costs to average dwelling price (%) 125.9 108.5 136.6 107.2 109.6 117.4 121.5 0.7%






Table 2.13 Housing – North West


Annual growth

1998-14












23 23 23

3. Queensland construction activity in the Australian context

3.1 Queensland construction: The headline outcomes

The headline outcomes for total Queensland construction, from Table 3.2(c), are the following.

(i) In 2012-13 and 2013-14 Queensland construction activity (or total work done across the dwelling, non-residential building and engineering segments) is estimated to have grown by 4.2% and 4.6% respectively.

(ii) The projected growth rate for 2014-15 is -9.8%. This is the result of the large falls in engineering construction expenditures being partially offset by gains in dwelling expenditures. The projection is for a $19 million decline in non-dwelling construction, which will be partially offset by a $1.5 billion increase in dwelling expenditures. There are two important aspects to be recognised in assessing these changes. Firstly given the high level of engineering construction expenditures the projected variation is relatively minor and would easily be cancelled out by changes to the timing of expenditures on major projects now under construction. Secondly the growth in dwelling expenditures does reflect some improvement in new construction. However the main driver is coming from the fact that other dwelling expenditures have been rising in the last couple of quarters but are still lower than 2011 levels so there is likely to be a continued recovery over the short-term future. Conversely if other dwelling expenditures over the last couple of quarters are further revised upwards then the gain in dwelling expenditures as projected will not eventuate. Non-residential construction expenditures are projected to remain steady over 2015 and then grow through to 2018. The overall decline in construction activity is therefore the result of the projected decline in engineering construction expenditures.

(iii) In 2015-16 total Queensland construction is projected to also decline by 3.5%. The changes in the three major components for 2015-16 are similar to the projected changes for the preceding fiscal year with the exception that non-residential construction is now a positive contributor to the overall change. The gains in dwelling construction and non-residential expenditures are offset by the decline in engineering expenditure. In terms of the dwelling expenditure components, the gains in this fiscal year are dominated by new construction activity.

(iv) Although LNG project expenditures have peaked what is noticeable about the projection is that the decline in engineering expenditures over 2015 to 2017 is significantly less than half that of the build-up in expenditures between 2011 and 2014. There are several reasons behind this apparent floor on engineering expenditures. The world economy is projected to grow at around 3% per annum for the projection period hence there will be recovery in other forms of mining expenditures. The need to ensure natural gas supplies are adequate to meet export orders means that there will be continual high-level expenditures. The projection takes into account the higher levels of related resource infrastructure expenditures that will be necessary to ensure a sustainable expansion in Queensland resource industries. The resources that become available at reasonable costs as LNG investment winds down allows other non-resource engineering projects to begin construction.

Nevertheless engineering construction expenditure is projected to continue a sustained decline over the 2015 to 2017 period with the average annual decline being $3.7 billion a year.



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However to keep this in context over the period of the sustained decline in engineering expenditures between 2015 and 2017 the total decline is around $11 billion which is a relative positive outcome when compared to the $21 billion increase over the 2011 to 2014 period.

Over the 2017-2022 period on average the level of dwelling expenditures is stable with the gains over 2017-2018 being offset by sustained falls over the four subsequent years. This means that the average annual contribution of dwelling expenditures to Queensland construction activity is near zero over these six years.

In 2017 non-residential building expenditures are projected to grow at 5.6%. Further growth of 1.8% is projected into 2018. The following two years have declines large enough to more than offset the gains of the previous three years.

(v) The subdued outlook for residential building over the 2021 to 2024 period is offset by overall growth in engineering construction and non-residential building. The $1.6 billion decline in residential construction reduces the overall growth to $0.8 billion for the period. Engineering alone contributes just over $1.6 billion.

3.2 Total construction: A comparison with last year’s Annual Report

If the projections of the 2013 annual report are adjusted to the price base of this year's report a comparison of the projections can be made. In the 2013 Report the projected growth in the total level of Queensland construction activity for 2014 was at a decline of 2%, in this year’s report the estimate for 2014 total construction activity is for growth of 4.6%. This is due in part to revisions in the historical data for 2013, and to better than expected results for non-residential and engineering construction.

For the 2015 and 2016 fiscal years, the projection in last year’s report was for no significant change, in this report we have a significant decline for 2015 and a further smaller decline for 2016, due largely to the faster than expected winding down of the large engineering projects. However for the subsequent next three fiscal years the projections in this report are revised upwards. In general over the final years, the projection has been revised upwards as the engineering declines over this period that were projected last time have occurred faster than predicted. As has been indicated earlier in this report the timing of the ramp up and wind down of the large engineering projects, such as the LNG investments have significant outcomes in short term.

3.3 The Queensland dwelling market

3.3.1 New dwelling construction

For the 2013 fiscal year total new construction in private dwelling was steady at $8.7 billion. For 2014 it is estimated that the increase in private new dwelling construction will be of the order of 3.6%. The $9 billion of new private dwelling construction in 2014 is still 28% below the levels at the peak in 2008. From Figure 3.1 it can be seen that dwelling approvals still have to rise significantly before a return to pre-GFC levels of new dwelling construction will be achieved.

Dwelling approvals in 2014 were 20% above those of 2013, indicating that under the impact of the current low interest rates and a steady increase in Queensland employment growth the turnaround for the Queensland dwelling construction sector has begun. New construction activity is projected to



25 25 25

increase by 13% over 2015. This is expected to continue at around 11% per annum for the following two years. At this point new dwelling construction will have reached 2008 levels.

There is rapidly improving economic conditions in Queensland. Employment is growing at 1.6% and is expected to continue to grow at between 1.4% and 2% through to 2020. This is expected to be a key catalyst in maintaining the recovery in dwelling construction along with the maintenance of the current low interest rates.

If the recovery is not sustained as projected then the first factor that will contribute to this will be the already identified severe regional constraints in housing affordability in the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. However housing markets elsewhere are more in balance in terms of affordability. However, the low levels of dwelling construction between 2009 and 2013, combined with population increases causing a housing shortage would indicate that the recovery is likely to be sustained, at least for the short term.

3.3.2 Other dwelling expenditure

As noted above, there was a sharp fall off in Queensland’s other renovation expenditures. The fall-off reduced total Queensland construction activity by 1.3%. It is expected that this data will be revised. All that can be currently done is to assume that the data for 2013 is accurate and expenditures will recover to more normal levels in 2014. This recovery will add 1.1 percentage points to Queensland’s construction industry growth, offsetting the fall in 2013.

Queensland’s other renovation expenditures rose by 3.7% in 2014, adding 0.3 percentage points to Queensland’s construction industry growth, a positive sign after the large decline of 2013. Continued strong growth will ensure that by 2016 other dwelling expenditures will have returned to the 2012 levels and by 2019 will exceed the previous peak levels of 2007.

In terms of contribution to total construction growth, other renovation expenditure will contribute an average of 0.4 percentage points per annum through to 2020 after which it will reduce construction growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points per annum for the remainder of the projections.



26 26 26

3.3.3 Total Queensland private dwelling construction expenditures

After falling by 7% in 2013, total Queensland private dwelling expenditures returned to growth in 2014 with a 3.6% rise over the previous year. In 2015 growth should be 11.3%, followed by 8.7% in 2016 and 9.3% in 2017 before slowing to just 1.6% growth in 2018.

2019 to 2024 will be a period of decline with average annual decline of 0.4%. The falls will be between 0.3% and 4.4%.

By 2023, total private dwelling expenditures are projected to be similar to 2016 levels. The level of expenditure in 2016 for private residential building expenditure is projected to be 25% above 2013 levels.

3.3.4 Dwelling commencements

From appendix table A.19 it can be seen that the number of dwelling units commenced in 2014 was 35,000. The average number of dwellings commenced in the five years prior to the GFC was 42,000. In the five years after 2008 the average was 31,000. After five years of below trend commencements, combined with continued 2% per annum population growth, the pent-up demand for dwellings, ensures that over 2015 the number of dwellings commenced is projected to increase by 16% to 40,500 and over 2016 the projection is for a 11% increase to 45,000 dwellings commenced. The period of rapid growth ends by 2017. For the three years to 2019 an average of 41,000 dwellings will begin construction, the average decline being 3.7% over these three years. The final years of the projection an average of 39,000 per annum dwellings will be commenced, the average decline for these last five years being 1.3% per annum.

Figure 3.1: Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

35002011-12 $ million



27 27 27

Figure 3.2: Queensland dwelling – new construction approvals

Figure 3.3: Queensland non-residential building approvals

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

13500Number

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

40002011-12 $ million



28 28 28

Figure 3.4: Real Queensland established house prices

Figure 3.5: Queensland housing rental vacancy rate

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,0002011-12 $'s

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5 Per cent



29 29 29

Figure 3.6: Queensland housing approvals – number and CVM $m

3.4 Non-residential building

If the growth profile for the Queensland economy adopted for this report is realised then a number of the current constraints to expansion will gradually be eliminated. The outlook for non-residential building is improving, largely due to private sector expenditures in health, retail and other business projects. The public sector continues its policy of debt consolidation.

3.4.1 Private non-residential building

In 2013 private non-residential building expenditure rose 1%, followed by an estimated 16% increase in 2014. Approvals for 2014 have not been as strong as those of 2013 hence in 2015, private non-residential building expenditure is projected to increase only slightly, for 2016 stronger growth of 4.6% is projected, followed by 6.6% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018 resulting in average annual growth 4.8% over 2016 to 2018.

Figure 3.7 shows the correlation between the value of private non-residential work done and private non-residential approvals. The figure confirms the upturn in private non-residential building construction activity over the next couple of years.

The slowdown in the Queensland economic growth rate post 2019 will produce stagnation in private non-residential building expenditures over the remainder of the projection period.

The expenditure increases in private non-residential building is modest compared to past recoveries as for example over the 2003 to 2008 period when average annual growth was over 11%.

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000CVM $mNumber

QLD Housing approvals - no. (LHS) QLD Housing approvals - ($m CVM) - (RHS)



30 30 30

Figure 3.7: Queensland – Private non-residential building work done and private non-residential building approvals

Figure 3.8: Excess demand for dwellings – Queensland

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000CVM $m

QLD - Private non-residential building approvals QLD - Private non-residential work done

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250'000



31 31 31

3.4.2 Public non-residential building activity

The outlook for public non-residential building activity over the short term is more pessimistic than the case for the corresponding private sector.

As a major component of the stimulus policy response via expenditures in education infrastructure in particular, public non-residential construction expenditures rose rapidly in 2009. The growth rate was 40%, followed by an 81% increase over 2010. In 2011 the increase was 10%. The ending of the stimulus over 2011 resulted in a fall of public non-residential building activity of 26% in 2012 and 25% further fall in 2013 and an estimated 17% in 2014. In 2015 the level of public non-residential building activity is projected to fall by just under 2%. The average annual fall over the 2016 to 2020 period will be 2%. There are two reasons for this long drawn out fall, the debt consolidation policies of both the federal and state governments and the pull forward effects of the stimulus policy, that is, public sector projects that may have been due over the current period were brought forward to the 2009 to 2011 period.

Sustained population increases will eventually necessitate that expenditures be increased significantly with the expectation that public sector finances will accommodate this expansion. By 2023 public sector non-residential construction expenditures are projected to be 32% above the current levels. This public sector expenditure profile of this report represents efficient counter cyclical policy in that the timing of expenditure changes will partly offset the upturn/downturn in private sector construction expenditures.

Figure 3.9: Queensland share of national population increase and national approvals (%)

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Per cent

QLD share of national population increase % QLD share of national approvals %



32 32 32

3.4.3 Major Queensland non-residential building projects

In real terms over the last six months the value of non-residential building projects under construction or committed have risen by 0.5% or $11 million, projects under consideration have risen by 192.9% or $416 million. Current major projects under construction or committed are; the $1.9 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital, the $1.4 billion construction of a new 359 public-bed Queensland Children's Hospital, the $1 billion “ICON Ipswich” CBD renewal, and $889 million for 240 extra kindergarten centres,

Figure 3.10: Queensland non-residential building approvals and work done

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Figure 3.11: Queensland non-residential projects under construction, committed and under consideration (at quarterly construction rates) – $ million

3.4.4 Total non-residential building activity

The total non-residential building activity is the sum of the private and public sector activity. Between 2004 and 2011 non-residential building activity grew continuously and, generally, strongly. In 2012 and 2013 non-residential building activity fell by an average 9.3% per annum. The 2012 outcome represented the first decline since 2003 in total non-residential building expenditures.

Preliminary estimates for 2014 indicate growth of 5.5% In 2015 it is projected that expenditure levels will be similar to 2014 the following three years will be one of sustained growth in expenditures with average growth of 3.3% per annum over the 2016 to 2018 period. Two years of decline follow with the average annual decline for 2019 and 2020 being 9.5%. However this is balanced by the remaining years of the projection so that for the entire 2019 to 2024 period moderate average growth of 1.7% per annum is achieved.

3.5 Engineering construction

The determination between the private and public sector engineering construction is by no means as clear cut as the case for non-residential building activity. Privatisation of enterprises and the use of private public partnerships (PPPs) can radically change the profiles for activity in each segment. In the case of engineering, therefore, it is more useful to discuss the sector as a whole and then discuss the likely share of activity for the public sector.

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3.5.1 Engineering: The segment drivers

The growth in engineering construction expenditures are summarised in Table 3.4. The table gives the percentage point contribution of each of the major engineering segments, that is; roads, water storage, heavy industry etc. to total engineering construction growth.

In 2012 the growth in Queensland engineering construction expenditures arose from two segments, namely:

heavy industry; and

roads.

By 2014 only heavy industry could be considered a major contributor. The heavy industry contribution was 8 percentage points of the total change. Over 2013 and 2014 the cumulative decline in roads expenditure was $2.5 billion.

In 2014 the 8 percentage point contribution of heavy industry was offset by several smaller decreases in other sectors. The largest of these was roads which reduced overall engineering construction expenditure growth by 1.4 percentage points and Electricity generation, transmission and pipelines which reduced engineering construction growth by just under 1 percentage point. Total growth for the engineering sector was 4.7% for 2014.

In 2015 engineering construction will decline by 18.7%. The bulk of this decline will be from heavy industry as the LNG project construction phase ends, the result is that heavy industry reduces engineering growth by 17.2 percentage points. Bridges, rail and harbours offer a positive contribution in 2015 with 1.4 percentage points.

Over the remainder of the projection period the average decline in Queensland heavy industry expenditures is projected to be $1 billion per annum. The decline in total engineering expenditures averages $0.02 billion per annum, hence the other engineering sectors will contribute around $1 billion per annum.

3.5.2 Mining investment and output

The consequences of a long period of elevated mining investment are now having an impact on Queensland’s mining output. In both 2013 and 2014 mining output is estimated to have expanded by 8%, followed by a 21% gain in 2015 and 18% in 2016. Over the 2016 to 2020 period, the average annual increase in Queensland’s mining output is projected to be 6% per annum.

The expansion in mining output over the last four years of the projection period is 2.8% per annum.

In 2010 Queensland’s mining investment was $7 billion, by 2013 it had reached $30 billion and $30 billion in 2014. Over 2015 and 2016 the level of mining investment is projected at an average $21 billion per annum. It is then projected to decline to $13 billion by 2020 it will average this level for the remainder of the projection period.



35 35 35

3.5.3 Engineering construction: The outlook

In 2014 the estimated growth in Queensland engineering construction expenditure was 4.7%, with the growth being driven by a 5.8% increase in private engineering construction expenditure. This growth contributed 3.2 percentage points to total Queensland construction growth.

In 2015 private engineering construction is predicted to decline by 22%, reducing Queensland’s total construction activity growth by 12.6 percentage points. Public engineering is projected to increase by 2.8%, adding 0.3 percentage points to the overall construction industry growth rate.

Over 2016 to 2020 the decline in private engineering construction expenditure is predicted to reduce the average annual growth of overall Queensland construction activity by 2% per annum. Public engineering will partially offset this with an average annual contribution of 1.7 percentage points to total Queensland construction activity.

Over the last four years of the projection period both private and public engineering construction activity is projected to be stable.

In 2020 total engineering construction expenditure is projected to be 80% of the 2013 engineering construction expenditures.

It should be noted that given the high level of expenditures on a small number of projects, small changes in project expenditure timing will have significant implications for the overall Queensland outcome.

Figure 3.12: Queensland mining, LNG and metal ore investment

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36 36 36

Figure 3.13: Queensland real mining output % rate of growth

Figure 3.14: Queensland mining investment (2011 $m)

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Figure 3.15: LNG expansion

3.5.4 Major Queensland engineering projects

In real terms over the last six months the value of engineering projects under construction or committed have declined by 9.7% or $1,428 million, projects under consideration have risen by 44% or $3,429 million. Major engineering projects currently under construction or committed are; the $24.7 billion 'Australia Pacific LNG', the $19.6 billion Curtis LNG project QCLNG, and the $19 billion Gladstone LNG (GLNG).

Figure 3.16: Queensland engineering – work done

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Figure 3.17: Queensland total engineering – work yet to be done

Figure 3.18: Queensland engineering projects under construction, committed and under consideration (at quarterly construction rates) – $ million

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3.6 Queensland’s construction share of total Australian construction

In 2013, Queensland’s construction share of total Australian construction was 26.5%, similar to the previous year and 4 percentage points above the previous peak share of 26.1% in 2008. There was a 7 percentage point decline in dwelling construction expenditure’s share of the national total from 26.8% in 2008 to 19.8% in 2013.

A strong Queensland recovery in its national share occurred in 2012, with the share being a full 2 percentage points above its 2011 share of 24.1%., with the reasons being that Queensland’s total engineering construction expenditure share of the national total engineering construction expenditure increased by 3.2 percentage points to 32.3%. The Queensland share of the Australian engineering total was 31.9% in 2013.

In 2014 Queensland share of national construction activity peaked at 27.6% which will represent the highest share in history. However after that date the share will decline steadily remaining below 25.5 throughout the remainder of the projection.

Figure 3.19: Share of public engineering in total engineering (%)

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Figure 3.20: Share of Queensland construction industry in GSP (%)

Figure 3.21: Queensland non-residential construction and private non-residential building expenditure share in GSP and GSP growth

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Table 3.1(a) Australia and Queensland construction industry activity – value of work done (the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research's June 2014 forecasts) (constant prices chain volume measure – 2011-12)

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AUSTRALIA (2008 $m)

Total Residential Building 69907 72805 74373 70954 69652 72708 80990 85647 82368 80845 78547 78029 75839 74153 72743 71361

Total Non-Residential Building 33171 37150 37205 34904 33582 34907 33552 34777 34706 34457 32923 30871 31317 32904 32004 31774

Total Engineering Construction 74016 78248 84156 109679 124397 120736 115774 116726 115721 120583 128931 130317 131674 131335 132147 132963

Total Australian construction activity 177094 188202 195733 215537 227631 228351 230315 237149 232795 235885 240401 239218 238830 238393 236894 236098

QUEENSLAND (2008 $m)




Total Queensland construction activity 46089 45093 48382 57839 60281 63044 56847 54847 56880 58262 58599 58207 58118 58276 58691 59474

QUEENSLAND (% OF AUSTRALIAN TOTALS)

Total Residential Building 24.9 23.6 20.9 21.0 19.8 19.7 19.6 20.2 23.0 23.8 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.3 23.9 24.3

Total Non-Residential Building 22.6 21.1 22.3 21.5 20.3 20.6 21.4 21.2 22.4 23.0 23.3 20.9 23.5 25.0 25.7 26.8

Total Engineering Construction 28.6 25.7 29.1 32.3 31.9 34.4 29.2 25.8 26.0 25.8 24.8 25.3 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.3

Total Queensland construction activity 26.0 24.0 24.7 26.8 26.5 27.6 24.7 23.1 24.4 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.8 25.2

QUEENSLAND (ANNUAL GROWTH LESS REST OF AUSTRALIA GROWTH) – % per annum

Total Residential Building -9.4 -7.4 -15.1 0.4 -7.1 -0.6 -0.5 3.8 16.8 4.4 1.4 0.1 -1.4 -2.8 3.1 2.2

Total Non-Residential Building 8.3 -10.0 7.6 -4.3 -6.8 1.9 4.6 -1.3 7.4 3.2 1.9 -12.6 16.0 8.5 3.6 5.7

Total Engineering Construction 5.1 -15.1 19.4 20.0 -2.2 11.2 -22.2 -16.2 1.0 -1.4 -5.4 2.5 -2.5 0.7 0.5 1.3

Total Queensland construction activity -0.2 -11.4 4.3 12.5 -1.9 5.8 -14.8 -8.6 7.2 1.5 -1.8 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2

QUEENSLAND (% OF QUEENSLAND TOTAL)




Total Queensland construction activity 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


Table 3.1(b) Australian construction industry activity – value of work done (the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research's June 2014 forecasts) (constant prices chain volume measure – 2011-12 $M)

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

New Work 38944 39405 40234 38690 40608 43369 50366 53959 50280 48321 45987 45691 43606 41771 40416 39123

Alterations and Additions 7474 7436 7919 7622 7000 6886 6531 6818 6930 7059 7302 7408 7429 7483 7544 7606

Other Work Done 22753 23764 23355 23388 21303 21730 23382 24165 24455 24744 24514 24170 23980 24073 23928 23784

Total Private Residential Building 69171 70605 71508 69700 68911 71985 80279 84942 81665 80124 77803 77269 75016 73327 71888 70513

Total Public Residential Building 736 2200 2865 1254 741 723 711 705 703 721 744 760 823 826 855 848


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

Hotels etc 1378 1015 879 1309 1082 1097 2215 3428 4263 3427 2107 1659 2131 2185 2212 2239

Shops 5795 4623 5261 5605 5273 6012 5792 5650 4350 4350 4515 4201 4534 5201 5453 5716

Factories 1542 1098 1057 1257 1034 981 1149 1809 1754 1753 1748 2005 1995 1660 1632 1604

Offices 8144 5577 5166 5749 5651 5459 6147 6629 7167 7368 7521 6708 6374 6338 5987 5655

Other Business Premises 4617 3638 3879 4497 4519 5199 4322 4313 4325 4587 4681 4359 4354 4872 4937 5004

Educational 4020 12519 11920 6123 5174 5400 4653 3850 3532 3513 3406 3438 3388 3572 3628 3686

Religious 143 179 234 218 195 203 181 181 159 157 158 158 158 158 158 158

Health 3162 3743 4059 4901 5054 5896 5419 4833 4478 3698 2905 2443 2500 2682 2612 2543

Entertain. & Recreational 2001 1922 2017 2044 2066 1841 1499 2342 3114 3593 3478 3156 3027 3272 3207 3142

Miscellaneous 2368 2837 2734 3202 3535 2818 2175 1741 1563 2011 2404 2745 2857 2965 3179 3409


Total Building 103078 109955 111578 105858 103234 107615 114542 120423 117074 115302 111469 108900 107156 107057 104747 103135

ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION

Roads, highways and subdivisions 16603 14894 16603 18431 17996 15821 17639 20362 23636 25153 27034 27116 26831 26707 26599 26491

Bridges, railways and Harbours 6698 8362 11170 14477 14943 12680 12898 14102 16349 19030 21524 20491 18800 16662 15299 14047

Water storage and supply, Sewerage and drainage 7618 9054 9552 7872 6706 6093 6401 6518 7147 7603 7965 8181 8230 8557 8764 8976

Electricity generation, transmission and distribution and pipelines 11644 11466 10897 11723 13770 11771 9438 10320 11695 12950 14833 15487 15483 15069 15148 15228

Telecommunications 4179 4198 3951 4780 5214 5579 5802 6996 8304 9429 10556 11289 12065 12927 13830 14796

Heavy Industry 23826 26009 28147 48145 60146 62985 58322 52859 42870 40517 41217 41832 44360 45256 46689 48167

Recreation and Other 3448 4264 3836 4250 5622 5806 5274 5569 5720 5901 5802 5922 5905 6158 6281 6407


TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 103078 109955 111578 105858 103234 107615 114542 120423 117074 115302 111469 108900 107156 107057 104747 103135


Table 3.2(a) Queensland construction industry activity – value of work done (the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research's June 2014 forecasts) (constant prices chain volume measure – as a % of major segment totals)

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SHARE OF TOTAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

New Work 65.0 61.5 59.3 58.7 63.2 63.0 64.1 65.3 66.4 66.0 64.9 64.8 64.4 63.4 63.9 64.3

Other Work Done 34.0 36.1 37.1 40.2 36.4 36.3 35.4 34.1 32.9 33.3 34.4 34.3 34.7 35.6 35.1 34.6

Total Private Residential Building 99.0 97.6 96.4 98.9 99.6 99.3 99.5 99.4 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.2 99.1 99.0 99.0 98.9

Total Public Residential Building 1.0 2.4 3.6 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: SHARE OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING TOTAL

Hotels etc 2.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.9 11.3 25.1 25.2 11.6 7.2 16.6 13.0 13.5 14.0

Shops 14.6 9.7 12.7 16.4 15.4 19.2 20.7 16.2 10.6 13.9 16.0 15.4 15.8 19.5 20.8 22.3

Factories 4.0 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.3 5.2 4.6 3.5 3.3 3.1

Offices 25.7 17.8 14.4 13.5 17.2 12.7 17.3 15.0 10.5 8.1 9.7 14.8 15.0 16.3 19.4 23.1

Other Business Premises 15.0 9.3 9.6 10.1 11.3 13.0 11.3 14.9 13.1 15.3 21.3 14.0 12.5 14.2 12.4 10.9

Educational 12.8 30.4 29.3 17.7 15.1 13.8 16.0 10.9 8.4 8.1 8.9 11.1 9.3 8.1 7.8 7.5

Religious 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Health 8.3 10.4 13.3 18.8 17.9 23.9 18.0 16.1 16.3 12.0 12.0 9.3 7.0 6.2 5.0 4.0

Entertain. & Recreational 4.5 3.8 5.2 5.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 6.0 7.0 6.3 6.0 8.3 6.9 8.4 9.3 10.4

Miscellaneous 12.1 13.8 11.0 12.9 12.0 8.4 6.7 5.0 4.7 7.1 9.9 14.3 11.9 10.5 10.8 11.0


ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION: SHARE OF ENGINEERING TOTAL

Roads, highways and subdivisions 29.8 28.9 22.9 19.5 12.5 10.6 12.0 16.3 19.2 20.7 21.5 20.2 19.1 18.5 17.6 16.7

Bridges, railways and Harbours 8.0 7.6 8.0 4.8 3.4 3.4 5.9 10.1 12.1 13.3 14.3 16.8 17.0 15.8 16.3 16.9

Water storage and supply, Sewerage and drainage 12.4 10.2 12.5 6.8 5.9 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0

Electricity generation, transmission and distribution and pipelines 15.2 13.4 11.2 9.1 10.7 9.4 9.0 10.7 11.1 10.6 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4

Telecommunications 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 9.0

Heavy Industry 27.5 33.5 38.1 54.1 62.5 67.4 61.7 49.3 41.9 38.7 35.3 33.4 33.2 33.9 33.4 33.0

Recreation and Other 3.6 3.5 4.3 3.2 2.3 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7



Table 3.2(b) Fiscal year construction activity growth rates – Queensland CVM construction activity indicators (%)

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Private

New work and alterations and additions -9.9 -6.7 -12.5 -5.2 -0.4 3.6 13.0 10.9 11.3 1.1 -3.5 -0.7 -4.5 -5.8 1.3 0.4

Other work done -4.6 4.8 -7.0 3.8 -16.2 3.7 8.2 4.9 5.6 2.8 1.5 -0.8 -2.8 -1.8 -1.1 -1.4

Total private residential building -8.2 -2.8 -10.5 -1.8 -6.8 3.6 11.3 8.7 9.3 1.6 -1.8 -0.7 -3.9 -4.4 0.4 -0.3

Public

Dwelling construction -2.9 136.7 37.0 -71.3 -62.3 62.5 -22.6 26.5 46.1 -7.6 3.9 17.9 7.7 -1.6 6.8 2.5

Non-residential building

Private 0.1 -24.3 2.8 6.0 1.1 16.3 0.3 4.6 6.6 3.2 -4.6 -17.7 11.1 11.6 -0.3 1.3

Public 40.6 81.5 9.9 -25.9 -24.6 -16.5 -1.8 -3.1 2.5 -2.8 2.4 -10.1 22.9 11.6 0.6 9.4

Total 8.5 4.2 6.2 -9.5 -9.1 5.5 -0.3 2.6 5.6 1.8 -3.0 -15.9 14.1 11.6 -0.1 3.5

Engineering

Private 25.4 -7.8 28.6 52.6 13.9 5.8 -22.5 -14.8 -11.2 -2.9 1.0 6.8 1.4 1.8 3.3 1.6

Public 2.2 3.6 3.1 15.7 2.9 -1.0 2.8 6.7 36.9 16.2 6.4 -3.8 -5.2 -2.9 -4.0 1.7

Total 19.0 -5.1 22.0 44.5 12.0 4.7 -18.7 -10.6 -0.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 -0.8 0.3 1.0 1.6

Total construction 5.6 -2.2 7.3 19.5 4.2 4.6 -9.8 -3.5 3.7 2.4 0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3


Table 3.2(c) Fiscal year construction activity indicator contribution to total Queensland construction growth rate (%)

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Private

New work and alterations and additions -2.8 -1.6 -2.9 -1.0 -0.1 0.5 1.9 2.0 2.3 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -1.2 0.2 0.1

Other work done -0.7 0.6 -1.0 0.5 -1.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Total private residential building -3.5 -1.0 -3.9 -0.5 -1.7 0.8 2.5 2.4 2.9 0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3 -1.3 0.1 -0.1

Public

Dwelling construction 0.0 0.5 0.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Non-residential building

Private 0.0 -2.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 -0.5 -1.8 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.1

Public 1.3 3.6 0.8 -2.2 -1.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.4

Total 1.4 0.7 1.1 -1.6 -1.2 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -2.1 1.6 1.5 0.0 0.5

Engineering

Private 7.5 -2.7 9.4 20.8 7.0 3.2 -12.6 -7.1 -4.7 -1.0 0.4 2.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.6

Public 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.7 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.8 4.7 2.7 1.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 0.3

Total 7.7 -2.3 9.8 22.5 7.3 3.1 -12.3 -6.3 -0.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 -0.5 0.2 0.6 0.9



Table 3.3 Annual growth and % contribution to Queensland construction activity by major construction segment

Fiscal years 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Annual percentage rate of change (%)

Dwellings -8.1 -1.4 -9.4 -4.3 -7.4 3.9 11.0 8.8 9.5 1.6 -1.8 -0.6 -3.8 -4.3 0.5 -0.2

Total non-residential building 8.5 4.2 6.2 -9.5 -9.1 5.5 -0.3 2.6 5.6 1.8 -3.0 -15.9 14.1 11.6 -0.1 3.5

Total engineering construction 19.0 -5.1 22.0 44.5 12.0 4.7 -18.7 -10.6 -0.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 -0.8 0.3 1.0 1.6


Contribution to total construction growth ($ million)

Dwellings -1536 -240 -1609 -664 -1108 535 1580 1404 1652 299 -339 -109 -722 -787 87 -39

Total non-residential building 591 318 482 -789 -687 373 -19 188 414 137 -237 -1223 912 852 -5 291

Total engineering construction 3379 -1074 4416 10910 4238 1854 -7759 -3591 -34 946 914 940 -279 93 333 530


Table 3.4 Sector contribution to Queensland engineering construction growth (percentage point)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Roads, highways and sub-divisions 5.7 2.2 13.3 -2.4 -0.9 5.2 -5.4 -1.4 -0.8 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6

Bridges, railways and harbours 3.1 2.2 1.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.1 -0.9 0.1 1.4 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.4 3.0 0.0 -1.1 0.7 0.8

Water storage and supply, sewerage and drainage 4.5 17.0 -6.8 -2.7 5.1 -2.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3

Electricity generation, transmission and distribution and pipelines 0.1 2.1 3.3 -2.5 0.3 1.9 2.9 -0.9 -2.0 0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Telecommunications 0.0 0.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8

Heavy industry 8.4 -0.9 8.5 4.2 13.0 40.1 15.9 8.0 -17.2 -17.6 -7.4 -2.0 -2.4 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.1

Recreation and other -1.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 1.7 0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

Total engineering construction 20.4 22.3 19.0 -5.1 22.0 44.5 12.0 4.7 -18.7 -10.6 -0.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 -0.8 0.3 1.0 1.6



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3.7 The regional dimension

3.7.1 Brisbane

Population and employment

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Brisbane was 2.4% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Brisbane was 45,000 or 48.6% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Brisbane was 3.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 36,500 or 48.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Brisbane would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Brisbane is estimated 2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Brisbane was 40,900 or 49.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Brisbane was 1.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 15,600 or 50.6% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Brisbane would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Brisbane is projected to be 1.9% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Brisbane is projected to be 42,800 or 44.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Brisbane is projected to be 1.6% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 17,600 or 45.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Brisbane is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Brisbane is projected to be 1.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Brisbane is projected to be 41,900 or 43.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Brisbane is projected to be 1.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 16,300 or 45.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Brisbane is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.



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Construction activity

Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Brisbane total construction activity was 9.2% per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $1,398.6m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $801.9m which explained 57.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $301.7m therefore explaining 21.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 78.9% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Brisbane which explained 44.7% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Brisbane construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Brisbane total construction activity was 1.9% per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $407.2m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private non-residential building with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $231.9m which explained 56.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $89.2m therefore explaining 21.9%. The two components therefore explain 2.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in Brisbane which explained 12.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is, the change in Brisbane construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Brisbane total construction activity is projected to be 2% per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $306.4m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $366.1m which explained 119.5% of the total annual change. The negative contribution means that the contribution will be more than completely offset were more than completely offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $358.9m therefore explaining 117.1% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in Brisbane which is likely to explain 75.8% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Brisbane construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity. For 2013 it is estimated that Brisbane construction activity changed by -16.8% which translates into a $3352.1m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$1067.3m decrease in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a -5.4 percentage point decline in total Brisbane construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 32.1% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 700.8 decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 3.5 percentage point decline in total Brisbane construction activity. That is private engineering explained 20.8% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in other dwelling construction expenditures.



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For 2014 it is projected that Brisbane construction activity will change by 1.7% which translates into a $277.9m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $560.2m increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 3.4 percentage point increase in total Brisbane construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 200% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 368.4 increase in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a 2.2 percentage point increase in total Brisbane construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 129.4% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private engineering expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Brisbane construction activity will change by -0.2% which translates into a -$30.7m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$1049.5m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -6.2 percentage point decline in total Brisbane construction activity. That is private engineering explained 3100% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a 521.2 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 3.1 percentage point increase in total Brisbane construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained -1550% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in private non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2015

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Brisbane total construction activity is projected to be 1 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $167.6m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $245.9m which explained 146.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$75.1m therefore explaining -44.8% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 101.9% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Brisbane which is likely to explain 45.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Brisbane construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

Capacity utilisation

Over the 2004-2009 period Brisbane had an average annual average shortage of 560.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Brisbane construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Brisbane was operating above normal capacity was $560.9m

Over the 2009-2014 period Brisbane had an average annual average shortage of 165.4 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Brisbane construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3,865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Brisbane was operating above normal capacity was $165.4m



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Over the 2014-2018 period Brisbane is projected to have an average annual average surplus of 1,139.4 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Brisbane construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Brisbane will be operating below normal capacity is $1,139.4m

Over the 2018-2024 period Brisbane is projected to have an average annual average surplus of 1,785.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Brisbane construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be 1,764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Brisbane will be operating below normal capacity is $1,785.3m.

Figure 3.22: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Brisbane (CVM $m)

3.7.2 Gold Coast


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Gold Coast was 3.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Gold Coast was 13,900 or 15% of the total change in Queensland's population.

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For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Gold Coast was 5.1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 10,900 or 14.5% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Gold Coast would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Gold Coast is estimated 2.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Gold Coast was 10,900 or 13.2% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Gold Coast was 1.1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 2,800 or 9.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Gold Coast would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Gold Coast is projected to be 2.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Gold Coast is projected to be 12,900 or 13.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Gold Coast is projected to be 1.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 5,200 or 13.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Gold Coast is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Gold Coast is projected to be 1.9% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Gold Coast is projected to be 12,000 or 12.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Gold Coast is projected to be 1.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 4,400 or 12.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Gold Coast is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Gold Coast total construction activity was 5% per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $227.2m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $128.3m which explained 56.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$52.2m



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therefore explaining 23% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 79.5% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in the Gold Coast which explained 7.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in the Gold Coast construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Gold Coast total construction activity was -4.1 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of -$245m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$207.6m which explained 84.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$43.3m therefore explaining 17.7% of the total. The two components therefore explain 85.9% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in the Gold Coast which explained -7.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Gold Coast construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Gold Coast total construction activity is projected to be 8.6 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $346.5m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $208.9m. which explained 60.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$88.8m therefore explaining 25.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Gold Coast which is likely to explain -85.8% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Gold Coast construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Gold Coast construction activity changed by -6.4% which translates into a -$247.3m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$132.2m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -3.4 percentage point decline in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is private engineering explained 53.1% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -115.2 decrease in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a -3 percentage point decline in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 46.9% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in other dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Gold Coast construction activity will change by 12.6% which translates into a $450.7m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $329.9m increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 9.2 percentage point increase in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 73% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 146.3 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 4.1 percentage point increase in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 32.5% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in



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public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014

For 2015 it is projected that Gold Coast construction activity will change by 17% which translates into a $688.2m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $425.5m increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 10.5 percentage point increase in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 61.8% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a

370 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 9.2 percentage point increase in total Gold Coast construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 54.1% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private engineering expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2015

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Gold Coast total construction activity is projected to be 2 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $97.2m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $78.9m. which explained 81.2% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $35.9m therefore explaining 36.9% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 118.1% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Gold Coast which is likely to explain 26.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Gold Coast construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Gold Coast had an average annual average shortage of 409.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Gold Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Gold Coast was operating above normal capacity was $409.9m

Over the 2009-2014 period Gold Coast had an average annual average surplus of -39.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Gold Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Gold Coast was operating below normal capacity was -$39.9m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Gold Coast is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 49.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Gold Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Gold Coast will be operating above normal capacity is $49.3m.



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Over the 2018-2024 period Gold Coast is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 379.8 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Gold Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Gold Coast will be operating above normal capacity is $379.8m.

Figure 3.23: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Gold Coast (CVM $m)

3.7.3 Sunshine Coast


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Sunshine Coast was 2.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Sunshine Coast was 7,800 or 8.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Sunshine Coast was 4.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 5,600 or 7.5% of the total net employment positions in Queensland. During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Sunshine Coast would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been moderate

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Sunshine Coast is estimated 1.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of

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1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Sunshine Coast was 5,800 or 7% of the total change in Queensland's population. For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Sunshine Coast was 0.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 1,200 or 3.8% of the total net employment positions in Queensland. During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Sunshine Coast would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 2.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 7,700 or 8% of the total change in Queensland's population. For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 1.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,800 or 7.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland. During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Sunshine Coast is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 2.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 8,300 or 8.5% of the total change in Queensland's population. For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Sunshine Coast is projected to be 1.7% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,700 or 7.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland. During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Sunshine Coast is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Sunshine Coast total construction activity was 2.7 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $66.1m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $42.2m which explained 63.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $17.3m therefore explaining 26.1% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 90% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in Sunshine Coast which explained 2.1% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Sunshine Coast construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Sunshine Coast total construction activity was 5.4 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $85m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private non-residential building with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $127.3m which explained 149.8% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$85.7m therefore explaining -100.8% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 69.3% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of



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the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Sunshine Coast which explained 2.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Sunshine Coast construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Sunshine Coast total construction activity is projected to be 13.3 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $338.5m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $120.8m which explained 35.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$113.9m therefore explaining 33.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Sunshine Coast which is likely to explain -83.8% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Sunshine Coast construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Sunshine Coast construction activity changed by -22.5% which translates into a -$658.1m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$410.6m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -14 percentage point decline in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is private engineering explained 62.2% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -113.9 decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -3.9 percentage point decline in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 17.3% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in new dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Sunshine Coast construction activity will change by 51.6% which translates into a $1170.7m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $844.4m increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 37.2 percentage point increase in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 72.1% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 87.8% increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 3.9 percentage point increase in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is public engineering explained 7.6% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in new dwelling construction expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Sunshine Coast construction activity will change by -6.1% which translates into a -$210.9m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$518.8m decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -15.1 percentage point decline in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 247.5% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a 173.1 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 5 percentage point increase in total Sunshine Coast construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained -82% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Sunshine Coast total construction activity is projected to be 0.8 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in



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expenditure of $29.1m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $57.4m. which explained 197.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$36.1m therefore explaining -124.1% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 73.2% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in Sunshine Coast which is likely to explain 7.9% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Sunshine Coast construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Sunshine Coast had an average annual average shortage of 222 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Sunshine Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Sunshine Coast was operating above normal capacity was $222m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Sunshine Coast had an average annual average shortage of 4.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Sunshine Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Sunshine Coast was operating above normal capacity was $4.6m

Over the 2014-2018 period Sunshine Coast is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 410.8 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Sunshine Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Sunshine Coast will be operating above normal capacity is $410.8m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Sunshine Coast is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 395.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Sunshine Coast construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Sunshine Coast will be operating above normal capacity is $395.1m.



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Figure 3.24: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Sunshine Coast (CVM $m)

3.7.4 West Moreton


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for West Morton was 2.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for West Morton was 1,900 or 2.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for West Morton was 3.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 1,200 or 1.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of West Morton would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been moderate

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for West Morton is estimated 2.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for West Morton was 2,000 or 2.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for West Morton was 1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 400 or 1.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of West Morton would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for West Morton is projected to be 2.9% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for West Morton is projected to be 3,000 or 3.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for West Morton is projected to be 2.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,100 or 2.9% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of West Morton is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for West Morton is projected to be 3.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for West Morton is projected to be 3,900 or 4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for West Morton is projected to be 2.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,200 or 3.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of West Morton is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of West Morton total construction activity was 17.1 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $86.2m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public non-residential building with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $40.1m. which explained 46.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$17.8m therefore explaining 20.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 67.2% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in West Morton which explained 2.8% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in West Morton construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of West Morton total construction activity was 1.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of -$2.4m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$4.7m which explained 195.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $2.6m therefore explaining -108.6% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 84.6% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in



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activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in West Morton which explained -0.1% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in West Morton construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of West Morton total construction activity is projected to be 9.3 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $61m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $31.9m which explained 52.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$19.7m therefore explaining 32.3% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in West Morton which is likely to explain -15.1% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in West Morton construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that West Morton construction activity changed by 2% which translates into a $11.5m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $31.1m increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 5.3 percentage point increase in total West Morton construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 265% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 19.6 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 3.4 percentage point increase in total West Morton construction activity. That is public engineering explained 170% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private engineering expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that West Morton construction activity will change by -2.1% which translates into a -$12.2m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$53.4m decrease in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a -9 percentage point decline in total West Morton construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 428.6% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a

17 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 2.9 percentage point increase in total West Morton construction activity. That is public engineering explained -138.1% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that West Morton construction activity will change by -0.8% which translates into a -$4.7m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $44.8m increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 7.7 percentage point increase in total West Morton construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained -962.5% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -21.3 decrease in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a -3.7 percentage point decline in total West Morton construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 462.5% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private engineering expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.



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For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of West Morton total construction activity is projected to be 8.2 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $80.4m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $59.5m which explained 74% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $8.5m therefore explaining 10.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 84.6% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in West Morton which is likely to explain 21.7% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in West Morton construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period West Morton had an average annual average shortage of 48 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that West Morton construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in West Morton was operating above normal capacity was $48m.

Over the 2009-2014 period West Morton had an average annual average surplus of -56.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that West Morton construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in West Morton was operating below normal capacity was -$56.9m

Over the 2014-2018 period West Morton is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -137.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that West Morton construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in West Morton will be operating below normal capacity is -$137.6m.

Over the 2018-2024 period West Morton is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -17.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that West Morton construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in West Morton will be operating below normal capacity is -$17.6m.



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Figure 3.25: Queensland regional construction value of work done – West Moreton (CVM $m)

3.7.5 Wide Bay/Burnett


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Wide Bay/Burnett was 2.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Wide Bay/Burnett was 5,900 or 6.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Wide Bay/Burnett was 3.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,400 or 4.5% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Wide Bay/Burnett would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been moderate.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Wide Bay/Burnett is estimated 1.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Wide Bay/Burnett was 3,700 or 4.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Wide Bay/Burnett was 0.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 1,000 or 3.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Wide Bay/Burnett would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 1.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 5,200 or 5.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 1.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,600 or 4.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Wide Bay/Burnett is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 1.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 5,900 or 6.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to be 1.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,600 or 4.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Wide Bay/Burnett is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Wide Bay/Burnett total construction activity was 5.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $75.3m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $43.9m which explained 58.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $34.4m therefore explaining 45.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 103.9% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in Wide Bay/Burnett which explained 2.4% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Wide Bay/Burnett total construction activity was -3.7 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of -$69m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$80m which explained 115.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from other dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$11.3m therefore explaining 16.3% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 1.2% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of



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the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in Wide Bay/Burnett which explained -2.1% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Wide Bay/Burnett total construction activity is projected to be 4.8 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $82m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $47.7m which explained 58.2% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of-$46.7m therefore explaining -57% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Wide Bay/Burnett which is likely to explain -20.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity changed by 3% which translates into a $47.6m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $143.2m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 9.1 percentage point increase in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is private engineering explained 303.3% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -56.6 decrease in expenditure for other dwelling construction which contributed to a -3.6 percentage point decline in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is other dwelling construction explained -120% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in new dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity will change by -4.6% which translates into a -$73.9m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$129.9m decrease in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a -8 percentage point decline in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is public engineering explained 173.9% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 78.2 increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 4.8 percentage point increase in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained -104.3% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity will change by 6.6% which translates into a $101.2m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $90m increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 5.8 percentage point increase in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 87.9% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -44.7 decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -2.9 percentage point decline in total Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity. That is private engineering explained -43.9% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public engineering expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Wide Bay/Burnett total construction activity is projected to be 1.1 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in



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expenditure of $18.7m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $33m which explained 176.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$22.1m therefore explaining -118.2% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 58.3% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in Wide Bay/Burnett which is likely to explain 5% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Wide Bay/Burnett construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Wide Bay/Burnett had an average annual average shortage of 299 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Wide Bay/Burnett construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Wide Bay/Burnett was operating above normal capacity was $299m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Wide Bay/Burnett had an average annual average surplus of -84.7 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Wide Bay/Burnett construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Wide Bay/Burnett was operating below normal capacity was -$84.7m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -50 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Wide Bay/Burnett construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Wide Bay/Burnett will be operating below normal capacity is -$50m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Wide Bay/Burnett is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -21.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Wide Bay/Burnett construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Wide Bay/Burnett will be operating below normal capacity is -$21.6m.



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Figure 3.26: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Wide Bay-Burnett (CVM $m)

3.7.6 Darling Downs


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Darling Downs was 1.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Darling Downs was 2,700 or 2.9% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Darling Downs was 2.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 2,500 or 3.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Darling Downs would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Darling Downs is estimated 1.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Darling Downs was 2,900 or 3.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Darling Downs was 2.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,400 or 11.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Darling Downs would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Darling Downs is projected to be 1.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Darling Downs is projected to be 4,300 or 4.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Darling Downs is projected to be 1.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,800 or 4.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Darling Downs is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Darling Downs is projected to be 1.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Darling Downs is projected to be 4,800 or 4.9% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Darling Downs is projected to be 1.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,900 or 5.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Darling Downs is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Darling Downs total construction activity was 12.8 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $173.1m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $162m which explained 93.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $5.3m therefore explaining 3.1% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 96.7% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Darling Downs which explained 5.5% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Darling Downs construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Darling Downs total construction activity was 12.4 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $362.4m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $265.5m which explained 73.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $69.1m therefore explaining 19.1% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 161.2% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in



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activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Darling Downs which explained 11.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Darling Downs construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Darling Downs total construction activity is projected to be -0.7 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$76.7m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$256.7m which explained 334.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$133.1m therefore explaining -173.5% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Darling Downs which is likely to explain 19% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Darling Downs construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Darling Downs construction activity changed by 12.8% which translates into a $449.9m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $380.4m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 10.9 percentage point increase in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is private engineering explained 85.15625% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 100.5 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 2.9 percentage point increase in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is public engineering explained 22.7% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in other dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Darling Downs construction activity will change by 15.5% which translates into a $612m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $368m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 9.3 percentage point increase in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is private engineering explained 60% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 194.6 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 4.9 percentage point increase in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is public engineering explained 31.6% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Darling Downs construction activity will change by -22.8% which translates into a -$1041.3m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$1226.4m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -26.9 percentage point decline in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is private engineering explained 118% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a

85.8 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 1.9 percentage point increase in total Darling Downs construction activity. That is public engineering explained -8.3% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Darling Downs total construction activity is projected to be -0.5 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in



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expenditure of -$53.6m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$54.5m which explained 101.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$20.2m therefore explaining 37.7% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 139.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in Darling Downs which is likely to explain -14.5% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Darling Downs construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Darling Downs had an average annual average shortage of 426.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Darling Downs construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Darling Downs was operating above normal capacity was $426.1m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Darling Downs had an average annual average shortage of 18.2 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Darling Downs construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Darling Downs was operating above normal capacity was $18.2m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Darling Downs is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -482.7 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Darling Downs construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Darling Downs will be operating below normal capacity is -$482.7m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Darling Downs is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -1097.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Darling Downs construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Darling Downs will be operating below normal capacity is -$1097.6m.



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Figure 3.27: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Darling Downs (CVM $m)

3.7.7 South West


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for South West was -0.4% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for South West was -100 or -0.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for South West was 0.7% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 100 or 0.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of South West would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for South West is estimated 0.6% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for South West was 200 or 0.2% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for South West was 8.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 1,400 or 4.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of South West would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for South West is projected to be 1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for South West is projected to be 300 or 0.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for South West is projected to be 0.6% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 100 or 0.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of South West is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be moderate.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for South West is projected to be 1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for South West is projected to be 300 or 0.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for South West is projected to be 0.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 200 or 0.6% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of South West is likely to decline. The decline in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be moderate.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of South West total construction activity was 36.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $89.8m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $92.3m which explained 102.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$3.5m therefore explaining -3.8% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 99.1% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in South West which explained 2.9% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in South West construction activity was in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of South West total construction activity was 46.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $296.5m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $286.9m which explained 96.8% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $5.3m therefore explaining 1.8% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 99.9% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in South West which explained



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9.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in South West construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of South West total construction activity is projected to be -18.6 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$501.6m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$480.2m which explained 95.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of-$21.3m therefore explaining 4.2% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in South West which is likely to explain 124.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in South West construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that South West construction activity changed by 9.9% which translates into a $286m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $284.5m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 9.8 percentage point increase in total South West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 98.9% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -35.1 decrease in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a -1.2 percentage point decline in total South West construction activity. That is public engineering explained -12.1% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in new dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that South West construction activity will change by -23.7% which translates into a -$754.7m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$602.5m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -18.9 percentage point decline in total South West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 79.7% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a -118.3 decrease in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a -3.7 percentage point decline in total South West construction activity. That is public engineering explained 15.6% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that South West construction activity will change by -44.9% which translates into a -$1091.7m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$1070.1m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -44 percentage point decline in total South West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 98% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -23.1 decrease in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a -0.9 percentage point decline in total South West construction activity. That is public engineering explained 2% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in private non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of South West total construction activity is projected to be 11.5 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $30.5m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $19.9m which explained 65.2% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be



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offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $9.9m therefore explaining 32.5% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 97.7% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in South West which is likely to explain 8.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in South West construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period South West had an average annual average shortage of 141 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that South West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in South West was operating above normal capacity was $141m.

Over the 2009-2014 period South West had an average annual average surplus of -92 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that South West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in South West was operating below normal capacity was -$92m.

Over the 2014-2018 period South West is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -569.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that South West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in South West will be operating below normal capacity is -$569.3m.

Over the 2018-2024 period South West is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -500.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that South West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in South West will be operating below normal capacity is -$500.6m.



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Figure 3.28: Queensland regional construction value of work done – South West (CVM $m)

3.7.8 Fitzroy


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Fitzroy was 1.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Fitzroy was 3,500 or 3.7% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Fitzroy was 3.7% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,500 or 4.7% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Fitzroy would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Fitzroy is estimated 1.9% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Fitzroy was 4,200 or 5.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Fitzroy was 1.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 2,000 or 6.5% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Fitzroy would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

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For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Fitzroy is projected to be 2.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Fitzroy is projected to be 5,400 or 5.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Fitzroy is projected to be 1.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,200 or 5.6% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Fitzroy is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Fitzroy is projected to be 2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Fitzroy is projected to be 5,400 or 5.5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Fitzroy is projected to be 1.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,700 or 4.9% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Fitzroy is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Fitzroy total construction activity was 22 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $407.3m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $375.9m which explained 92.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $30.7m therefore explaining 7.5% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 99.8% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Fitzroy which explained 13% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Fitzroy construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Fitzroy total construction activity was 41.3 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $2271.1m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $2166m which explained 95.4% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $39m therefore explaining 1.7% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 92.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Fitzroy which explained 70.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Fitzroy construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.



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For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Fitzroy total construction activity is projected to be -8.2 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$1166.2m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$1155.7m which explained 99.1% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$78.6m therefore explaining -6.7% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Fitzroy which is likely to explain 288.7% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Fitzroy construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Fitzroy construction activity changed by 20.4% which translates into a $2727.3m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $1832.3m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 13.7 percentage point increase in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private engineering explained 67.1% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 347.8 increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 2.6 percentage point increase in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 12.7% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in new dwelling construction expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Fitzroy construction activity will change by 2.1% which translates into a $342.8m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $903.1m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 5.6 percentage point increase in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private engineering explained 266.7% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a -258 decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -1.6 percentage point decline in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained -76.2% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Fitzroy construction activity will change by -20.5% which translates into a -$3368.8m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$2990.4m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -18.2 percentage point decline in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private engineering explained 88.8% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -179.5 decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -1.1 percentage point decline in total Fitzroy construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 5.4% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in new dwelling construction expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Fitzroy total construction activity is projected to be 0.5 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $2.4m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $109.1m which explained 4545.8% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change



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came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$98m therefore explaining -4083.3% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 462.5% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Fitzroy which is likely to explain 0.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Fitzroy construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Fitzroy had an average annual average shortage of 305.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Fitzroy construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Fitzroy was operating above normal capacity was $305.9m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Fitzroy had an average annual average shortage of 2929.2 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Fitzroy construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Fitzroy was operating above normal capacity was $2929.2m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Fitzroy is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -109.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Fitzroy construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Fitzroy will be operating below normal capacity is -$109.3m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Fitzroy is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -2867.5 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Fitzroy construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Fitzroy will be operating below normal capacity is -$2867.5m.



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Figure 3.29: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Fitzroy (CVM $m)

3.7.9 Central West


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Central West was -1.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Central West was -200 or -0.2% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Central West was -1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was -100 or -0.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Central West would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Central West is estimated 0.4% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Central West was zero or 0.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Central West was -0.1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was zero or 0% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Central West would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Central West is projected to be 0.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Central West is projected to be 100 or 0.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Central West is projected to be 0.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be zero or 0.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Central West is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Central West is projected to be 0.6% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Central West is projected to be 100 or 0.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Central West is projected to be 0.6% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be zero or 0.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Central West is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Central West total construction activity was 0.9 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $0.4m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $1.8m. which explained 411.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$0.8m therefore explaining -183% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 228.6% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in Central West which explained 0% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Central West construction activity was in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Central West total construction activity was 24.7 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $44.7m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $45m. which explained 100.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $1.4m therefore explaining 3.2% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 98.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Central West which explained



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1.4% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Central West construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Central West total construction activity is projected to be 48.4 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $195.3m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $187m. which explained 95.8% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$5m therefore explaining 2.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Central West which is likely to explain -48.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Central West construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Central West construction activity changed by 53.9% which translates into a $127.8m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $134.8m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 56.9 percentage point increase in total Central West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 105.5% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -5.7 decrease in expenditure for other dwelling construction which contributed to a -2.4 percentage point decline in total Central West construction activity. That is other dwelling construction explained -4.5% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public engineering expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Central West construction activity will change by 4.4% which translates into a $16.1m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $33m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 9 percentage point increase in total Central West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 204.5% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a -9.3 decrease in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a -2.5 percentage point decline in total Central West construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained -56.8% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in private non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Central West construction activity will change by -32.3% which translates into a -$122.9m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$128.7m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -33.8 percentage point decline in total Central West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 104.6% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a 7 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 1.8 percentage point increase in total Central West construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained -5.6% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Central West total construction activity is projected to be -7 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$105m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was



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0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$113m. which explained 107.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $7.3m therefore explaining -7% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 100.6% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in Central West which is likely to explain -28.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Central West construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Central West had an average annual average surplus of -16.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Central West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Central West was operating below normal capacity was -$16.1m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Central West had an average annual average shortage of 34.8 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Central West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Central West was operating above normal capacity was $34.8m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Central West is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 1242 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Central West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Central West will be operating above normal capacity is $1242m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Central West is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 1492.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Central West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Central West will be operating above normal capacity is $1492.1m.



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Figure 3.30: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Central West (CVM $m)

3.7.10 Mackay


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Mackay was 2.5% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Mackay was 3,800 or 4.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Mackay was 4.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,800 or 5.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Mackay would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Mackay is estimated 2.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Mackay was 3,600 or 4.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Mackay was 1.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 1,800 or 5.8% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Mackay would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

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For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Mackay is projected to be 2.7% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Mackay is projected to be 5,100 or 5.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Mackay is projected to be 2.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,400 or 6.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Mackay is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Mackay is projected to be 2.3% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Mackay is projected to be 4,900 or 5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Mackay is projected to be 1.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,000 or 5.6% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Mackay is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Mackay total construction activity was 19.9 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $288.4m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $162.3m. which explained 56.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $54.1m therefore explaining 18.8% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 75.1% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Mackay which explained 9.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Mackay construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Mackay total construction activity was 24.5 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $884.1m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $855.5m. which explained 96.8% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $17.7m therefore explaining 2% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 86.1% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in Mackay which explained 27.4% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Mackay construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.



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For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Mackay total construction activity is projected to be -1.6 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$354m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$490.2m. which explained 138.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$185.5m therefore explaining -52.4% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Mackay which is likely to explain 87.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Mackay construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Mackay construction activity changed by 75.8% which translates into a $2882.5m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $2442.6m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 64.2 percentage point increase in total Mackay construction activity. That is private engineering explained 84.6% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 259.4 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 6.8 percentage point increase in total Mackay construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 9% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Mackay construction activity will change by 13.1% which translates into a $878.7m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $889.1m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 13.3 percentage point increase in total Mackay construction activity. That is private engineering explained 101.5% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a 241.8 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 3.6 percentage point increase in total Mackay construction activity. That is public engineering explained 27.5% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Mackay construction activity will change by -7.9% which translates into a -$595.9m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$430.9m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -5.7 percentage point decline in total Mackay construction activity. That is private engineering explained 72.2% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -144.5 decrease in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a -1.9 percentage point decline in total Mackay construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 24.1% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Mackay total construction activity is projected to be 9.8 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $282.8m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $312.7m. which explained 110.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to



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total construction expenditure of -$28.8m therefore explaining -10.2% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 100.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Mackay which is likely to explain 76.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Mackay construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Mackay had an average annual average shortage of 139.5 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Mackay construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Mackay was operating above normal capacity was $139.5m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Mackay had an average annual average shortage of 598.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Mackay construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Mackay was operating above normal capacity was $598.1m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Mackay is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -454.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Mackay construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Mackay will be operating below normal capacity is -$454.1m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Mackay is projected to have an average annual average surplus of -361.1 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Mackay construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Mackay will be operating below normal capacity is -$361.1m.



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Figure 3.31: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Mackay (CVM $m)

3.7.11 Northern


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Northern was 1.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Northern was 3,700 or 4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Northern was 3.2% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,300 or 4.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Northern would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Northern is estimated 1.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Northern was 4,100 or 5% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Northern was 0.9% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 900 or 3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Northern would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

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For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Northern is projected to be 2.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Northern is projected to be 5,100 or 5.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Northern is projected to be 1.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 2,100 or 5.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Northern is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Northern is projected to be 1.9% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Northern is projected to be 5,000 or 5.2% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Northern is projected to be 1.5% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,900 or 5.2% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Northern is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Northern total construction activity was 8.4 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $133.9m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $58.3m. which explained 43.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $48.1m therefore explaining 35.9% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 79.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Northern which explained 4.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Northern construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Northern total construction activity was -2.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of -$75.2m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$48.4m. which explained 64.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$33.4m therefore explaining 44.4% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 48.8% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Northern which explained -2.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change i in Northern construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.



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For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Northern total construction activity is projected to be 10 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $213.5m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $196.9m. which explained 92.2% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of-$92.7m therefore explaining -43.4% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in Northern which is likely to explain -52.9% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Northern construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Northern construction activity changed by 5.2% which translates into a $120.9m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $261.3m increase in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a 11.2 percentage point increase in total Northern construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 215.3% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a -121.1 decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -5.2 percentage point decline in total Northern construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained -100% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private engineering expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Northern construction activity will change by -19.9% which translates into a -$487.5m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$452.6m decrease in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a -18.5 percentage point decline in total Northern construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 93% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a -60.4 decrease in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a -2.5 percentage point decline in total Northern construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 12.6% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public engineering expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Northern construction activity will change by 1.3% which translates into a $24.6m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$104m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -5.3 percentage point decline in total Northern construction activity. That is private engineering explained -407.7% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a 87.9 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 4.5 percentage point increase in total Northern construction activity. That is public engineering explained 346.2% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in new dwelling construction expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Northern total construction activity is projected to be -3.9 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of -$160.4m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$134.2m. which explained 83.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total



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construction expenditure of -$21.8m therefore explaining 13.6% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 97.3% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in Northern which is likely to explain -43.3% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Northern construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Northern had an average annual average surplus of -159.4 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Northern construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Northern was operating below normal capacity was -$159.4m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Northern had an average annual average shortage of 151.4 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Northern construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Northern was operating above normal capacity was $151.4m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Northern is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 1144 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Northern construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Northern will be operating above normal capacity is $1144m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Northern is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 2135.9 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Northern construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Northern will be operating above normal capacity is $2135.9m.



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Figure 3.32: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Northern (CVM $m)

3.7.12 Far North


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for Far North was 2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for Far North was 4,700 or 5.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for Far North was 3.2% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 3,800 or 5.1% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Far North would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for Far North is estimated 1.5% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for Far North was 4,000 or 4.8% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for Far North was 0.2% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 200 or 0.8% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Far North would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

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For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for Far North is projected to be 1.6% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for Far North is projected to be 4,500 or 4.6% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for Far North is projected to be 1.3% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,700 or 4.3% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Far North is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for Far North is projected to be 1.4% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for Far North is projected to be 4,200 or 4.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for Far North is projected to be 1.1% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 1,600 or 4.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of Far North is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of Far North total construction activity was 8.1 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $132.2m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public non-residential building with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $48.8m. which explained 36.9% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $44.5m therefore explaining 33.7% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 70.6% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private engineering in Far North which explained 4.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Far North construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of Far North total construction activity was -2.6 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of -$66.1m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$98.8m. which explained 149.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of

$49.5m therefore explaining -74.9% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 63.7% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Far North which explained -2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Far North construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.



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For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of Far North total construction activity is projected to be 7.6 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $145.1m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $47.1m. which explained 32.5% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from new dwelling construction with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of$45.3m therefore explaining 31.2% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in private non-residential building in Far North which is likely to explain -35.9% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Far North construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that Far North construction activity changed by -11.8% which translates into a -$229.1m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$212.1m decrease in expenditure for public non-residential building which contributed to a -10.9 percentage point decline in total Far North construction activity. That is public non-residential building explained 92.3% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 122.6 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 6.3 percentage point increase in total Far North construction activity. That is public engineering explained -53.4% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in private non-residential building expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that Far North construction activity will change by 5.7% which translates into a $98.4m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $233.9m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 13.7 percentage point increase in total Far North construction activity. That is private engineering explained 240.4% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a -101.2 decrease in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a -5.9 percentage point decline in total Far North construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained -103.5% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that Far North construction activity will change by 14.3% which translates into a $259.3m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $130.1m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 7.2 percentage point increase in total Far North construction activity. That is private engineering explained 50.3% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a 108 increase in expenditure for new dwelling construction which contributed to a 6 percentage point increase in total Far North construction activity. That is new dwelling construction explained 42% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of Far North total construction activity is projected to be 0.1 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $0m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was new dwelling construction with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$21.4m. The negative contribution means that the contribution will be more than completely offset were more than completely offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual



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change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $18.8m. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public engineering in Far North which is likely to explain 0% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in Far North construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period Far North had an average annual average shortage of 38.5 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Far North construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in Far North was operating above normal capacity was $38.5m.

Over the 2009-2014 period Far North had an average annual average surplus of -21.6 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Far North construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Far North was operating below normal capacity was -$21.6m.

Over the 2014-2018 period Far North is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 46.4 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Far North construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in Far North will be operating above normal capacity is $46.4m.

Over the 2018-2024 period Far North is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 176.8 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that Far North construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in Far North will be operating above normal capacity is $176.8m.



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Figure 3.33: Queensland regional construction value of work done – Far North (CVM $m)

3.7.13 North West


For the 2004-2009 period the average annual growth rate in population for North West was 0.2% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2.3%. The average annual change in the population for North West was 100 or 0.1% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2004-2009 period the average annual employment growth for North West was 1.6% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 3.9%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 300 or 0.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of North West would have declined. The decline in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual growth rate in population for North West is estimated 1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.9%. The average annual change in the population for North West was 400 or 0.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2009-2014 period the average annual employment growth for North West was 0.4% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created was 100 or 0.2% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

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During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of North West would have increased. The increase in the effective unemployment rate would have been strong.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual growth rate in population for North West is projected to be 1.1% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 2%. The average annual change in the population for North West is projected to be 400 or 0.4% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2014-2018 period the average annual employment growth for North West is projected to be 0.8% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.6%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 100 or 0.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of North West is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual growth rate in population for North West is projected to be 0.8% per annum compared to a Queensland average annual population growth rate of 1.8%. The average annual change in the population for North West is projected to be 300 or 0.3% of the total change in Queensland's population.

For the 2018-2024 period the average annual employment growth for North West is projected to be 0.7% compared to a Queensland total employment growth of 1.4%. The total number of net new employment positions created is projected to be 100 or 0.4% of the total net employment positions in Queensland.

During this time the effective underlying unemployment rate of North West is likely to increase. The increase in the effective unemployment rate is likely to be strong.


Over the 2004-2009 period the average rate of growth of North West total construction activity was 19.1 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $53.5m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $62.8m. which explained 117.3% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from public engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$9m therefore explaining -16.8% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 100.5% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in North West which explained 1.7% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in North West construction activity was in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2009-2014 period the average rate of growth of North West total construction activity was 19.9 per cent per annum which translated into an average annual change in expenditure of $152.7m. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a positive contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $141.5m. which explained 92.7% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution was not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of $11.2m therefore explaining 7.3% of the total change in construction activity. The two components therefore explain 60.3% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in other dwelling construction in North West



96 96 96

which explained 4.7% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in North West construction activity was in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For the 2014-2018 period the average rate of growth of North West total construction activity is projected to be 12.6 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure of $6.3m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was -0.5% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was public engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of $22.2m. which explained 352.4% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private engineering with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of-$18.4m therefore explaining -292.1% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 0% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in public non-residential building in North West which is likely to explain -1.6% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in North West construction activity is predicted to be in the reverse direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.

For 2013 it is estimated that North West construction activity changed by 29.6% which translates into a $275.4m change in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $230.8m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 24.8 percentage point increase in total North West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 83.7% of the total annual change in 2013. The next largest contribution came from a 20.2 increase in expenditure for public engineering which contributed to a 2.2 percentage point increase in total North West construction activity. That is public engineering explained 7.4% of the 2013 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public non-residential building expenditures.

For 2014 it is projected that North West construction activity will change by 20.2% which translates into a $243.3m increase in expenditure. The largest contributor was a $222.9m increase in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a 18.5 percentage point increase in total North West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 91.6% of the total annual change in 2014. The next largest contribution came from a

51.1 increase in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a 4.2 percentage point increase in total North West construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 20.8% of the 2014 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the decline in public non-residential building expenditures. This offset the impact of the main component driving change in 2014.

For 2015 it is projected that North West construction activity will change by -55.4% which translates into a -$803.5m decrease in expenditure. The largest contributor was a -$784.8m decrease in expenditure for private engineering which contributed to a -54.2 percentage point decline in total North West construction activity. That is private engineering explained 97.8% of the total annual change in 2015. The next largest contribution came from a -48.3 decrease in expenditure for private non-residential building which contributed to a -3.3 percentage point decline in total North West construction activity. That is private non-residential building explained 6% of the 2015 change. The most important component explaining the balance of the remaining change was the increase in public engineering expenditures. This reinforced the impact of the main component driving change in 2015.

For the 2017-2023 period the average rate of growth of North West total construction activity is projected to be 4 per cent per annum which translates into an average annual change in expenditure



97 97 97

of -$19.2m In contrast the average annual growth rate of Queensland construction was 0.6% per annum. The largest contribution to the average change in activity was private engineering with a negative contribution in terms of annual average annual change of -$15.1m. which explained 78.6% of the total annual change. The positive contribution means that the contribution will not be offset were not offset by the changes in the other components. The next largest contribution to annual change came from private non-residential building with a positive annual average contribution to total construction expenditure of -$3.8m therefore explaining 19.8% of the total change. The two components therefore explain 98.4% of the total change in construction activity. The balance of the change in activity was mainly explained by the change in new dwelling construction in North West which is likely to explain -5.2% of the total change in Queensland construction activity. That is the change in North West construction activity is predicted to be in the same direction as the overall change in Queensland construction activity.


Over the 2004-2009 period North West had an average annual average surplus of -44 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that North West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by the export of labour services to other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 2371.3. The degree to which the construction industry in North West was operating below normal capacity was -$44m.

Over the 2009-2014 period North West had an average annual average shortage of 259.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that North West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market would have had to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers was 3865.9. The degree to which the construction industry in North West was operating above normal capacity was $259.3m.

Over the 2014-2018 period North West is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 563.3 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that North West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland shortage of construction workers is predicted to be 513.4. The degree to which the construction industry in North West will be operating above normal capacity is $563.3m.

Over the 2018-2024 period North West is projected to have an average annual average shortage of 306.8 in construction workers relative to the supply from residents. This means that North West construction worker requirements for a balanced labour market will have to be met by import of labour from other regions. In contrast the average Queensland surplus of construction workers is predicted to be -1764.9. The degree to which the construction industry in North West will be operating above normal capacity is $306.8m.



98 98 98

Figure 3.34: Queensland regional construction value of work done – North West (CVM $m)

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1000

1200

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1600CVM $m



Table 3.5 Formation of construction in Brisbane (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 70.6 -293.9 -167.8 -175.0 11.7 -470.6 560.2 521.2 186.6 482.6 43.7 -203.3 -40.5 -243.5 -236.1 114.5 93.1

Other dwelling -133.9 -130.0 209.1 89.0 69.3 -686.6 -3.4 206.0 138.0 165.3 77.2 46.9 -12.3 -75.4 -48.8 -21.7 -34.5

Private non-residential building 870.5 -269.7 -946.3 -31.0 274.6 -174.1 -244.8 403.2 -19.9 243.2 149.7 -97.2 -486.9 284.8 324.1 -2.1 59.0

Public non-residential building -34.3 260.2 244.6 918.4 -519.2 -1067.3 368.4 -128.6 75.9 26.4 -41.3 13.9 -101.7 190.6 115.8 4.6 104.9

Private engineering 2164.5 1761.2 -626.8 -492.2 20.5 -700.8 -261.2 -1049.5 -1428.9 266.9 642.3 159.9 -369.3 117.6 499.9 404.4 266.6

Public engineering 37.1 -20.3 108.3 93.6 242.5 -252.7 -141.3 16.9 -169.6 718.8 -272.5 -306.5 -244.5 -334.2 176.8 440.1 15.1

Total construction 2974.6 1307.6 -1178.8 402.8 99.5 -3352.1 277.9 -30.7 -1217.9 1903.3 599.1 -386.3 -1255.1 -60.1 831.7 939.8 504.3

Percentage point contribution to growth:

Private dwelling new construction 0.4 -1.5 -0.8 -0.9 0.1 -2.4 3.4 3.1 1.1 3.1 0.2 -1.1 -0.2 -1.5 -1.4 0.7 0.5

Other dwelling -0.8 -0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 -3.4 0.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2

Private non-residential building 5.3 -1.4 -4.6 -0.2 1.4 -0.9 -1.5 2.4 -0.1 1.6 0.9 -0.5 -2.7 1.7 2.0 0.0 0.3

Public non-residential building -0.2 1.3 1.2 4.7 -2.6 -5.4 2.2 -0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.6

Private engineering 13.3 9.1 -3.0 -2.5 0.1 -3.5 -1.6 -6.2 -8.5 1.7 3.7 0.9 -2.1 0.7 3.0 2.3 1.5

Public engineering 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.5 1.2 -1.3 -0.9 0.1 -1.0 4.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -2.0 1.1 2.6 0.1

Total construction 18.2 6.8 -5.7 2.1 0.5 -16.8 1.7 -0.2 -7.2 12.2 3.4 -2.1 -7.1 -0.4 5.1 5.5 2.8

Table 3.6 Formation of construction in Gold Coast (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction -173.6 -197.5 -177.9 -615.0 -286.5 -115.2 146.3 370.0 265.1 230.0 32.8 -64.6 -14.4 -78.3 -86.9 20.1 18.7

Other dwelling -44.3 -57.6 59.9 -204.0 -61.0 -57.5 70.0 56.1 35.7 47.6 21.2 9.7 -12.5 -32.3 -21.9 -13.2 -17.1

Private non-residential building -207.5 162.3 -118.4 -191.6 5.9 25.0 329.9 425.5 -388.0 42.9 33.6 -29.9 -134.1 74.5 84.7 -2.0 12.0

Public non-residential building -123.3 -30.7 958.9 -285.7 -438.8 -15.8 -138.3 21.6 -19.3 23.1 4.8 8.2 -16.5 36.6 22.1 0.9 20.3

Private engineering 487.8 186.7 -184.2 -148.2 -54.2 -132.2 72.5 -104.0 -314.6 67.1 143.1 125.6 -84.9 35.5 135.8 118.3 79.0

Public engineering -0.1 -20.9 -85.2 -24.0 134.3 48.3 -29.7 -81.0 8.7 183.4 176.3 279.2 -73.6 -191.7 -46.8 139.0 -31.0

Total construction -61.1 42.2 453.1 -1468.5 -700.3 -247.3 450.7 688.2 -412.4 594.2 411.8 328.2 -335.9 -155.7 87.1 263.1 81.9


Private dwelling new construction -3.1 -3.6 -3.2 -10.2 -6.3 -3.0 4.1 9.2 5.6 5.3 0.7 -1.2 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.4 0.3

Other dwelling -0.8 -1.0 1.1 -3.4 -1.3 -1.5 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3

Private non-residential building -3.7 2.9 -2.1 -3.2 0.1 0.7 9.2 10.5 -8.2 1.0 0.7 -0.6 -2.4 1.4 1.6 0.0 0.2

Public non-residential building -2.2 -0.6 17.3 -4.8 -9.7 -0.4 -3.9 0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4

Private engineering 8.8 3.4 -3.3 -2.5 -1.2 -3.4 2.0 -2.6 -6.7 1.6 2.9 2.4 -1.5 0.7 2.6 2.3 1.4

Public engineering 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 -0.4 3.0 1.3 -0.8 -2.0 0.2 4.2 3.6 5.2 -1.3 -3.6 -0.9 2.6 -0.6

Total construction -1.1 0.8 8.2 -24.4 -15.4 -6.4 12.6 17.0 -8.7 13.8 8.4 6.2 -5.9 -2.9 1.7 5.0 1.5


Table 3.7 Formation of construction in Sunshine Coast (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 69.9 -106.0 -152.1 -112.4 -146.7 -78.1 81.2 173.1 127.8 149.1 38.6 -26.1 -0.6 -48.7 -53.9 23.8 25.1

Other dwelling -38.1 -40.2 33.5 -132.5 -38.0 -32.0 47.6 40.7 24.3 31.2 14.6 7.4 -6.8 -19.7 -13.0 -7.4 -9.9

Private non-residential building -72.0 -30.9 -49.5 -15.7 129.4 -113.9 844.4 -518.8 237.1 -56.1 -59.6 -81.2 -128.4 19.9 29.9 -10.9 -22.4

Public non-residential building 30.2 23.5 54.4 -44.4 -19.8 -18.3 60.2 122.9 -99.6 -13.2 0.8 8.2 -9.7 36.5 24.6 3.0 23.6

Private engineering 159.0 96.6 110.9 859.5 -554.4 -410.6 49.6 -118.4 -204.5 8.0 107.4 101.0 -54.2 24.4 90.2 79.4 53.8

Public engineering 77.7 76.5 13.7 17.0 25.0 -5.3 87.8 89.5 58.3 256.4 111.9 22.4 -54.4 -84.0 17.8 39.3 -8.8

Total construction 226.7 19.5 10.8 571.5 -604.5 -658.1 1170.7 -210.9 143.4 375.5 213.7 31.7 -254.2 -71.7 95.6 127.2 61.3


Private dwelling new construction 2.6 -3.6 -5.2 -3.8 -4.2 -2.7 3.6 5.0 4.0 4.4 1.0 -0.7 0.0 -1.3 -1.5 0.6 0.6

Other dwelling -1.4 -1.4 1.1 -4.5 -1.1 -1.1 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3

Private non-residential building -2.7 -1.1 -1.7 -0.5 3.7 -3.9 37.2 -15.1 7.3 -1.7 -1.6 -2.0 -3.2 0.5 0.8 -0.3 -0.6

Public non-residential building 1.1 0.8 1.8 -1.5 -0.6 -0.6 2.6 3.6 -3.1 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.6

Private engineering 5.9 3.3 3.8 29.0 -15.7 -14.0 2.2 -3.4 -6.3 0.2 2.9 2.6 -1.4 0.7 2.5 2.1 1.4

Public engineering 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.2 3.9 2.6 1.8 7.6 3.0 0.6 -1.4 -2.2 0.5 1.0 -0.2

Total construction 8.4 0.7 0.4 19.3 -17.1 -22.5 51.6 -6.1 4.4 11.1 5.7 0.8 -6.4 -1.9 2.6 3.4 1.6

Table 3.8 Formation of construction in West Moreton (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction -13.5 34.2 22.1 -27.7 -34.3 31.1 -53.4 44.8 41.8 45.3 19.9 3.1 8.0 -7.1 -12.7 9.6 7.7

Other dwelling -5.9 -5.0 9.1 -6.2 3.7 -17.2 3.9 7.4 5.8 7.7 4.7 3.7 1.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 0.0

Private non-residential building 7.3 9.9 -13.0 0.2 -1.2 -7.3 -2.2 -3.9 18.1 10.1 7.3 2.2 -6.3 8.5 9.5 1.5 5.7

Public non-residential building -32.7 223.2 -154.0 -61.3 -17.1 4.8 13.5 -21.3 21.7 6.0 0.3 2.1 -4.3 10.7 6.6 0.4 6.2

Private engineering 35.3 20.5 -6.5 19.6 -8.7 -19.4 9.0 -16.0 -47.4 2.5 19.7 17.3 -12.8 1.8 14.4 12.4 6.8

Public engineering -23.3 7.5 20.5 -37.5 -11.7 19.6 17.0 -15.8 54.0 124.0 -19.6 -50.9 -46.1 -52.2 167.5 226.3 191.3

Total construction -32.8 290.3 -121.8 -112.8 -69.3 11.5 -12.2 -4.7 93.9 195.5 32.4 -22.5 -60.3 -39.8 184.8 250.5 217.7


Private dwelling new construction -2.2 5.7 2.5 -3.6 -5.3 5.3 -9.0 7.7 7.2 6.7 2.3 0.3 0.9 -0.9 -1.6 1.0 0.6

Other dwelling -0.9 -0.8 1.0 -0.8 0.6 -3.0 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Private non-residential building 1.2 1.7 -1.5 0.0 -0.2 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 -0.7 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.5

Public non-residential building -5.2 37.4 -17.4 -8.0 -2.6 0.8 2.3 -3.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 0.2 -0.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.5

Private engineering 5.6 3.4 -0.7 2.6 -1.3 -3.3 1.5 -2.7 -8.2 0.4 2.3 1.9 -1.5 0.2 1.9 1.3 0.6

Public engineering -3.7 1.3 2.3 -4.9 -1.8 3.4 2.9 -2.7 9.3 18.5 -2.3 -5.7 -5.3 -6.4 21.6 23.5 15.8

Total construction -5.2 48.7 -13.7 -14.7 -10.6 2.0 -2.1 -0.8 16.3 29.1 3.7 -2.5 -6.9 -4.9 23.8 26.1 18.0


Table 3.9 Formation of construction in Wide Bay/Burnett (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction -17.7 -126.1 -54.4 -120.1 -114.0 -31.2 -34.3 90.0 84.4 47.7 -8.5 -24.0 -4.8 -27.0 -51.5 -10.6 -28.1

Other dwelling -5.6 -14.3 24.7 13.1 -45.2 -56.6 10.7 20.7 12.7 17.2 5.8 2.2 -4.5 -11.5 -8.5 -5.5 -6.7

Private non-residential building 3.8 -23.9 67.3 -81.8 -43.1 -10.0 78.2 -17.1 29.1 16.2 10.0 -5.6 -30.6 19.3 21.8 0.2 4.9

Public non-residential building 0.1 3.6 105.9 -26.6 -65.6 -15.0 44.3 18.4 -20.1 1.8 -2.1 2.6 -7.1 18.3 12.0 1.1 11.2

Private engineering -3.7 -76.1 -24.1 -12.9 64.2 143.2 -42.8 -44.7 -118.9 -35.9 8.6 7.5 -5.6 0.8 6.3 5.4 4.0

Public engineering 25.2 31.6 -11.6 55.4 85.9 17.3 -129.9 33.9 38.8 199.1 96.7 -22.1 -84.2 -111.5 133.9 183.2 35.0

Total construction 2.0 -205.1 107.9 -172.8 -117.9 47.6 -73.9 101.2 26.1 246.0 110.6 -39.4 -136.9 -111.6 113.9 173.9 20.3


Private dwelling new construction -0.9 -6.4 -3.1 -6.5 -6.8 -2.0 -2.1 5.8 5.1 2.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.2 -1.5 -3.0 -0.6 -1.4

Other dwelling -0.3 -0.7 1.4 0.7 -2.7 -3.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3

Private non-residential building 0.2 -1.2 3.8 -4.4 -2.6 -0.6 4.8 -1.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 -0.3 -1.5 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.2

Public non-residential building 0.0 0.2 6.0 -1.4 -3.9 -1.0 2.7 1.2 -1.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.6

Private engineering -0.2 -3.9 -1.4 -0.7 3.8 9.1 -2.7 -2.9 -7.2 -2.1 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2

Public engineering 1.3 1.6 -0.7 3.0 5.1 1.1 -8.0 2.2 2.4 11.9 5.0 -1.1 -4.2 -6.0 7.7 9.9 1.7

Total construction 0.1 -10.5 6.2 -9.3 -7.0 3.0 -4.6 6.6 1.6 14.7 5.8 -1.9 -6.9 -6.0 6.6 9.4 1.0

Table 3.10 Formation of construction in Darling Downs (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction -82.5 -53.7 106.9 25.9 -77.7 54.0 -7.5 27.8 39.7 37.5 -10.9 -26.0 -3.6 -22.3 -46.5 -7.7 -24.7

Other dwelling -7.5 -10.1 16.1 54.0 28.4 -97.1 -14.4 15.6 12.9 15.7 7.8 4.8 -0.4 -6.1 -3.9 -2.1 -2.9

Private non-residential building -92.4 18.2 33.4 31.7 -25.2 46.0 26.5 -11.6 18.2 11.2 1.6 -17.6 -46.6 19.0 23.0 -1.4 0.3

Public non-residential building 22.2 -34.8 74.7 -5.3 -34.5 -33.8 44.8 67.5 -58.1 7.5 2.9 6.0 -4.9 22.3 15.5 2.2 15.0

Private engineering 113.7 -38.3 -319.0 747.8 454.2 380.4 368.0 -1226.4 400.2 -301.2 -524.3 -200.4 -23.2 -119.3 11.4 729.5 239.9

Public engineering -103.9 -63.9 62.3 59.2 62.1 100.5 194.6 85.8 275.3 109.1 0.6 -153.1 -244.6 -64.4 43.9 59.3 -23.3

Total construction -150.4 -182.6 -25.6 913.1 407.2 449.9 612.0 -1041.3 688.2 -120.2 -522.4 -386.3 -323.3 -170.8 43.4 779.9 204.2


Private dwelling new construction -3.2 -2.2 4.8 1.2 -2.5 1.5 -0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.7 -0.3 -0.7

Other dwelling -0.3 -0.4 0.7 2.5 0.9 -2.8 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Private non-residential building -3.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 -0.8 1.3 0.7 -0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.5 0.7 0.9 -0.1 0.0

Public non-residential building 0.9 -1.5 3.4 -0.2 -1.1 -1.0 1.1 1.5 -1.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.4

Private engineering 4.5 -1.6 -14.5 34.3 14.7 10.9 9.3 -26.9 11.4 -7.2 -12.8 -5.6 -0.7 -4.2 0.4 26.7 6.8

Public engineering -4.1 -2.7 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.9 4.9 1.9 7.8 2.6 0.0 -4.3 -7.7 -2.3 1.6 2.2 -0.7

Total construction -5.9 -7.6 -1.2 41.9 13.2 12.8 15.5 -22.8 19.5 -2.9 -12.8 -10.8 -10.2 -6.0 1.6 28.6 5.8


Table 3.11 Formation of construction in South West (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction -1.8 -0.8 2.5 -3.8 6.4 23.3 -14.0 -1.5 8.4 10.3 4.9 0.2 -0.1 -2.9 -2.2 0.9 1.1

Other dwelling 1.7 -3.3 0.3 4.7 2.9 -7.9 0.1 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5

Private non-residential building -5.7 2.7 6.1 1.9 13.1 7.7 -15.3 10.6 -4.2 1.5 0.0 -2.2 -4.9 1.6 1.9 -0.3 -0.4

Public non-residential building 11.2 -11.9 15.9 2.9 -16.7 13.5 -4.7 -9.3 6.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -1.2 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.8

Private engineering 399.1 60.7 -308.8 620.4 1667.2 284.5 -602.5 -1070.1 -586.9 -399.0 257.5 250.2 -443.4 6.2 43.3 9.4 16.2

Public engineering -13.3 -4.9 6.5 -6.2 189.6 -35.1 -118.3 -23.1 13.4 19.3 2.2 5.6 -3.9 -5.1 25.1 30.8 14.7

Total construction 391.2 42.6 -277.6 619.9 1862.5 286.0 -754.7 -1091.7 -560.9 -366.5 265.6 255.4 -452.5 1.7 69.5 41.2 32.9


Private dwelling new construction -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 0.6 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.2

Other dwelling 0.6 -0.5 0.0 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Private non-residential building -2.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.1

Public non-residential building 4.3 -1.8 2.3 0.7 -1.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1

Private engineering 151.1 9.3 -44.2 147.6 160.3 9.8 -18.9 -44.0 -43.7 -51.1 62.1 36.8 -47.4 1.3 8.9 1.7 2.7

Public engineering -5.0 -0.7 0.9 -1.5 18.2 -1.2 -3.7 -0.9 1.0 2.5 0.5 0.8 -0.4 -1.1 5.2 5.5 2.5

Total construction 148.2 6.5 -39.8 147.5 179.0 9.9 -23.7 -44.9 -41.8 -46.9 64.0 37.5 -48.3 0.4 14.3 7.4 5.5

Table 3.12 Formation of construction in Fitzroy (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 51.0 -118.1 -107.3 -0.2 130.9 278.0 -110.7 -110.7 82.7 86.0 20.1 -14.6 5.2 -22.4 -23.9 21.8 14.8

Other dwelling 1.8 -19.4 27.9 22.8 -14.1 -35.1 11.7 9.3 17.3 24.0 10.4 9.4 5.8 -2.0 -1.6 2.4 0.5

Private non-residential building -13.3 83.6 -85.8 34.7 111.7 347.8 -258.0 -179.5 161.6 8.0 -9.7 -30.5 -65.7 20.5 25.5 -4.1 -5.4

Public non-residential building -20.6 -12.6 63.8 43.2 -31.6 207.2 -119.5 -104.1 52.4 -18.1 -17.9 -7.2 -15.0 11.9 6.1 -0.9 4.9

Private engineering -296.0 969.9 -20.7 1568.4 7743.0 1832.3 903.1 -2990.4 -212.0 -2230.8 -1248.6 -1226.5 1708.4 665.9 589.8 -1085.1 -89.7

Public engineering -126.0 -21.9 90.8 80.6 17.1 97.0 -83.7 6.5 143.1 310.0 16.8 -126.6 -173.7 1.7 133.0 594.6 318.2

Total construction -403.3 881.5 -31.4 1749.5 7957.1 2727.3 342.8 -3368.8 245.1 -1821.0 -1229.0 -1395.9 1465.0 675.7 728.8 -471.1 243.2


Private dwelling new construction 1.6 -4.2 -2.9 0.0 2.4 2.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1

Other dwelling 0.1 -0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Private non-residential building -0.4 3.0 -2.3 0.9 2.1 2.6 -1.6 -1.1 1.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

Public non-residential building -0.6 -0.4 1.7 1.2 -0.6 1.6 -0.7 -0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Private engineering -9.2 34.5 -0.6 42.8 143.1 13.7 5.6 -18.2 -1.6 -16.8 -10.9 -11.9 19.3 6.4 5.4 -9.2 -0.8

Public engineering -3.9 -0.8 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 -0.5 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.1 -1.2 -2.0 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.8

Total construction -12.5 31.4 -0.8 47.8 147.0 20.4 2.1 -20.5 1.9 -13.7 -10.7 -13.6 16.5 6.5 6.6 -4.0 2.2


Table 3.13 Formation of construction in Central West (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 2.8 1.2 -6.7 7.0 7.3 7.2 3.2 -0.4 -0.2 -1.4 -0.6 1.0 0.2

Other dwelling 0.5 -0.5 0.6 2.6 3.6 -5.7 -1.0 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5

Private non-residential building 2.3 -1.1 2.1 -1.6 0.0 1.4 7.7 -6.6 4.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.3

Public non-residential building 2.0 -0.5 1.9 25.1 -20.5 1.4 -9.3 3.7 -3.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2

Private engineering 12.9 7.5 -2.3 34.0 63.1 134.8 33.0 -128.7 64.8 695.5 270.3 297.8 -1110.1 -246.7 24.3 17.6 -44.3

Public engineering -6.5 -8.8 0.7 -8.8 23.1 -5.4 -7.5 1.0 8.3 16.3 6.9 4.9 -3.0 -4.0 15.3 18.6 12.4

Total construction 12.7 -3.1 3.6 51.8 72.0 127.8 16.1 -122.9 82.4 719.9 281.1 302.6 -1114.6 -250.8 40.2 37.6 -31.3


Private dwelling new construction 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.5 -1.8 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.1

Other dwelling 0.5 -0.5 0.5 2.3 2.2 -2.4 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Private non-residential building 2.3 -1.0 1.9 -1.4 0.0 0.6 2.1 -1.7 1.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1

Public non-residential building 2.0 -0.4 1.8 22.2 -12.4 0.6 -2.5 1.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Private engineering 12.9 6.7 -2.1 30.0 38.3 56.9 9.0 -33.8 25.1 204.4 25.5 22.2 -67.5 -46.6 8.7 5.5 -12.4

Public engineering -6.5 -7.8 0.6 -7.7 14.0 -2.3 -2.0 0.3 3.2 4.8 0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 5.5 5.8 3.5

Total construction 12.7 -2.8 3.3 45.7 43.6 53.9 4.4 -32.3 31.9 211.5 26.5 22.6 -67.8 -47.4 14.4 11.8 -8.8

Table 3.14 Formation of construction in Mackay (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 33.7 -122.2 55.8 -73.1 -12.3 259.4 -91.8 -144.5 46.0 25.5 -20.1 -33.2 -15.5 -32.6 -52.0 -17.7 -30.3

Other dwelling 2.9 3.6 16.3 -25.8 -19.3 -5.9 30.8 16.9 12.9 16.2 6.8 4.0 -1.0 -6.7 -5.3 -3.2 -4.1

Private non-residential building 4.3 61.9 -86.9 268.1 -231.2 97.1 -92.5 -2.5 30.8 22.5 12.5 -9.9 -46.7 27.2 31.0 -0.2 5.6

Public non-residential building 3.2 -15.0 187.0 -19.8 -142.0 122.3 -98.7 -23.1 11.7 -2.9 -2.5 0.1 -5.6 8.0 4.4 -0.2 3.9

Private engineering 160.9 277.8 167.0 876.1 480.4 2442.6 889.1 -430.9 -2285.8 -1457.5 833.9 954.5 1039.1 -1127.3 -631.1 1325.9 -206.4

Public engineering 33.1 188.4 -17.0 -85.7 -188.6 -32.8 241.8 -11.7 -246.9 154.3 790.0 983.1 827.4 763.9 -968.8 -2186.2 -235.1

Total construction 238.0 394.5 322.1 939.8 -113.1 2882.5 878.7 -595.9 -2431.3 -1242.0 1620.5 1898.5 1797.6 -367.4 -1621.8 -881.5 -466.3


Private dwelling new construction 1.7 -5.4 2.1 -2.5 -0.3 6.8 -1.4 -1.9 0.7 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5

Other dwelling 0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Private non-residential building 0.2 2.7 -3.3 9.0 -5.9 2.6 -1.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1

Public non-residential building 0.2 -0.7 7.0 -0.7 -3.6 3.2 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Private engineering 8.0 12.3 6.3 29.4 12.3 64.2 13.3 -5.7 -32.8 -32.1 25.3 19.4 15.2 -13.1 -7.7 20.0 -3.6

Public engineering 1.6 8.3 -0.6 -2.9 -4.8 -0.9 3.6 -0.2 -3.5 3.4 24.0 20.0 12.1 8.9 -11.7 -33.0 -4.1

Total construction 11.8 17.4 12.1 31.6 -2.9 75.8 13.1 -7.9 -34.9 -27.4 49.2 38.6 26.4 -4.3 -19.7 -13.3 -8.1


Table 3.15 Formation of construction in Northern (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 63.3 -22.6 -128.9 -117.0 7.5 31.1 -60.4 83.1 83.6 65.3 -0.8 -27.8 -6.3 -29.5 -45.1 -1.0 -0.8

Other dwelling -12.6 -2.2 90.3 -55.0 -59.9 -41.8 38.8 14.3 17.6 25.3 7.7 6.5 2.7 -5.8 -5.6 -0.9 -3.2

Private non-residential building -15.8 29.0 -38.9 46.7 55.6 -121.1 2.9 -37.2 70.7 31.4 19.5 -3.5 -41.1 28.8 32.3 1.0 8.9

Public non-residential building -131.8 -34.2 225.7 -221.8 163.4 261.3 -452.6 -19.6 2.1 6.0 0.5 2.7 -10.3 17.8 11.2 0.9 10.1

Private engineering 130.6 -114.6 60.3 -52.6 -41.2 -93.9 41.8 -104.0 553.5 517.9 -824.8 -108.3 954.6 1005.9 -1082.6 -708.3 -175.8

Public engineering -34.8 -3.4 39.4 -3.4 93.1 85.3 -58.0 87.9 118.7 239.9 596.1 51.6 -285.4 -408.1 -15.1 11.0 -102.5

Total construction -1.2 -147.9 247.8 -403.2 218.5 120.9 -487.5 24.6 846.2 885.7 -201.8 -78.8 614.2 609.1 -1104.8 -697.4 -263.2


Private dwelling new construction 2.6 -0.9 -5.7 -4.7 0.4 1.3 -2.5 4.2 4.2 2.3 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.0

Other dwelling -0.5 -0.1 4.0 -2.2 -2.8 -1.8 1.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Private non-residential building -0.7 1.2 -1.7 1.9 2.6 -5.2 0.1 -1.9 3.6 1.1 0.5 -0.1 -1.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3

Public non-residential building -5.5 -1.4 10.0 -8.8 7.8 11.2 -18.5 -1.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4

Private engineering 5.4 -4.8 2.7 -2.1 -2.0 -4.0 1.7 -5.3 27.9 18.3 -22.2 -3.1 27.8 24.9 -23.3 -19.9 -6.2

Public engineering -1.4 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 4.4 3.7 -2.4 4.5 6.0 8.5 16.1 1.5 -8.3 -10.1 -0.3 0.3 -3.6

Total construction 0.0 -6.1 11.0 -16.1 10.4 5.2 -19.9 1.3 42.7 31.3 -5.4 -2.2 17.9 15.1 -23.7 -19.6 -9.2

Table 3.16 Formation of construction in Far North (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 122.0 -234.9 -160.0 -106.1 31.4 -22.0 -101.2 108.0 127.7 83.0 9.1 -21.9 -7.1 -32.9 -54.6 -12.4 -30.3

Other dwelling -10.0 -16.2 32.0 -49.3 -52.6 -19.4 28.0 13.6 13.0 19.6 6.3 3.7 -2.2 -9.9 -7.9 -4.3 -5.9

Private non-residential building 84.5 -27.8 -102.0 39.6 -24.6 -64.5 17.4 0.7 64.2 44.1 29.7 4.4 -33.6 30.5 33.1 1.7 11.8

Public non-residential building 36.1 220.2 -146.3 25.4 101.1 -212.1 -44.1 38.4 -26.0 8.9 3.9 5.2 -7.7 20.0 12.6 1.0 11.8

Private engineering 50.2 35.2 -14.6 53.7 22.6 -33.6 233.9 130.1 -391.1 -30.1 103.2 99.0 -78.0 15.8 27.5 -32.0 -4.1

Public engineering -36.2 -15.9 -37.9 -11.2 172.1 122.6 -35.6 -31.6 119.2 179.1 4.2 10.0 -49.8 -84.6 11.2 35.9 -12.0

Total construction 246.6 -39.3 -428.7 -47.9 250.1 -229.1 98.4 259.3 -93.0 304.6 156.4 100.4 -178.4 -61.1 21.9 -10.1 -28.7


Private dwelling new construction 6.2 -10.6 -7.4 -6.1 1.9 -1.1 -5.9 6.0 6.2 4.2 0.4 -0.9 -0.3 -1.4 -2.4 -0.5 -1.3

Other dwelling -0.5 -0.7 1.5 -2.8 -3.1 -1.0 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3

Private non-residential building 4.3 -1.3 -4.7 2.3 -1.5 -3.3 1.0 0.0 3.1 2.2 1.3 0.2 -1.3 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.5

Public non-residential building 1.8 10.0 -6.7 1.5 6.0 -10.9 -2.6 2.1 -1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.5

Private engineering 2.6 1.6 -0.7 3.1 1.3 -1.7 13.7 7.2 -18.9 -1.5 4.5 4.1 -3.1 0.7 1.2 -1.4 -0.2

Public engineering -1.8 -0.7 -1.7 -0.6 10.2 6.3 -2.1 -1.7 5.8 9.1 0.2 0.4 -2.0 -3.6 0.5 1.5 -0.5

Total construction 12.6 -1.8 -19.8 -2.8 14.8 -11.8 5.7 14.3 -4.5 15.4 6.9 4.1 -7.0 -2.6 1.0 -0.4 -1.2


Table 3.17 Formation of construction in North West (CVM $m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Change in:

Private dwelling new construction 7.9 -1.9 2.5 -1.4 -3.2 0.7 3.0 8.6 8.8 7.0 0.9 -2.5 -2.2 -4.0 -4.5 -1.0 -2.5

Other dwelling 0.4 2.3 -2.0 3.1 2.6 -6.8 1.6 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.1

Private non-residential building 0.3 -6.9 2.7 16.3 -10.7 14.5 51.1 -48.3 23.7 -5.4 -6.2 -7.5 -10.7 0.5 1.2 -1.3 -2.8

Public non-residential building 3.8 -7.6 14.6 14.5 -2.0 15.9 -36.0 0.5 -1.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.8 1.6 1.0 0.0 0.9

Private engineering 32.4 85.4 -85.1 182.5 212.7 230.8 222.9 -784.8 544.6 304.9 -379.5 -273.1 -136.4 -73.5 672.6 -132.1 216.0

Public engineering -36.6 -37.4 -10.4 31.0 -4.0 20.2 0.6 20.4 14.2 48.3 27.4 11.8 -8.8 -11.5 -2.5 -3.4 -5.5

Total construction 8.1 33.9 -77.6 245.9 195.3 275.4 243.3 -803.5 590.9 357.3 -356.3 -270.0 -157.9 -86.6 667.6 -137.5 206.2


Private dwelling new construction 1.5 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2

Other dwelling 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Private non-residential building 0.0 -1.3 0.5 3.3 -1.4 1.6 4.2 -3.3 3.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2

Public non-residential building 0.7 -1.4 2.6 3.0 -0.3 1.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1

Private engineering 6.2 16.0 -15.0 37.3 28.9 24.8 18.5 -54.2 84.3 24.7 -23.8 -22.1 -14.1 -9.1 93.0 -9.5 17.2

Public engineering -7.0 -7.0 -1.8 6.3 -0.5 2.2 0.0 1.4 2.2 3.9 1.7 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4

Total construction 1.5 6.4 -13.7 50.2 26.6 29.6 20.2 -55.4 91.5 28.9 -22.4 -21.8 -16.3 -10.7 92.3 -9.9 16.5



106 106 106

Table 3.18 Total construction: average annual growth rates by Queensland regions

1993-2012 2012-2017 2017-2024

Brisbane 4.6 -2.6 0.9

Gold Coast 3.8 5.1 1.9

Sunshine Coast 3.9 5.1 0.8

West Moreton 2.4 8.3 7.4

Wide Bay/Burnett 2.0 4.1 0.9

Darling Downs 7.7 3.2 -1.4

South West 20.2 -32.2 6.1

Fitzroy 12.4 -3.0 0.0

Central West 5.6 34.9 -15.5

Mackay 9.6 -2.8 6.9

Northern 4.9 9.8 -5.0

Far North 3.0 3.3 0.0

North West 9.7 11.4 -1.3

Queensland 6.2 -0.3 0.6

Note: Fiscal years.

Table 3.19 Drivers of construction growth by Queensland region 2012-2024 (average annual $m change between span years)

2012-2016 2017-2024

New

dwellings

Non-residential

construction

Engineer- ing

Total con-struction

New dwellings

Non-residential

construction

Engineer- ing

Total con-struction

Brisbane 106.5 -206.4 -744.8 -844.7 13.4 98.5 272.7 384.6

Gold Coast 84.6 -38.5 -90.4 -44.2 4.9 22.6 131.8 159.3

Sunshine Coast 40.0 124.7 -196.6 -31.9 13.0 -29.4 88.8 72.4

West Moreton 6.7 1.0 -3.9 3.9 11.2 8.3 75.3 94.8

Wide Bay/ Burnett -12.6 -0.2 9.4 -3.4 -14.8 9.3 52.6 47.1

Darling Downs -3.7 8.0 218.9 223.2 -11.4 7.0 -57.5 -61.9

South West 4.2 0.3 -56.2 -51.8 2.7 -0.4 -21.4 -19.1

Fitzroy 51.9 37.6 1491.2 1580.7 17.0 -12.2 -230.3 -225.5

Central West 2.0 -4.2 37.3 35.1 1.9 -0.3 -3.5 -1.9

Mackay 18.4 -65.6 171.4 124.2 -21.2 5.9 107.5 92.2

Northern 22.8 -14.9 136.7 144.6 -2.4 14.6 -41.7 -29.6

Far North 25.3 -29.9 61.7 57.1 -8.5 22.2 24.4 38.1

North West 3.4 1.4 95.5 100.3 -0.4 -3.5 31.8 27.9

Queensland 349.6 -186.7 1130.2 1293.1 5.3 142.5 430.5 578.3


Table 3.20 Contribution of each region to Queensland construction growth

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Average

2000-2006 Average

2007-2013 Average

2014-2024

Percentage point contribution

Brisbane 7.4 3.0 -2.6 0.9 0.2 -5.8 0.5 0.0 -2.1 3.5 1.1 -0.7 -2.1 -0.1 1.4 1.6 0.9 3.0 0.9 -0.2

Gold Coast -0.2 0.1 1.0 -3.3 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 1.1 -0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.4 -0.4 0.2

Sunshine Coast 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 -1.2 -1.1 1.9 -0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1

West Moreton -0.1 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1

Wide Bay/ Burnett 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.1

Darling Downs -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 1.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.0

South West 1.0 0.1 -0.6 1.4 3.8 0.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.3

Fitzroy -1.0 2.0 -0.1 3.9 16.4 4.7 0.6 -5.3 0.4 -3.3 -2.2 -2.4 2.5 1.2 1.3 -0.8 0.4 0.5 4.1 -0.2

Central West 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0

Mackay 0.6 0.9 0.7 2.1 -0.2 5.0 1.5 -0.9 -4.3 -2.3 2.8 3.3 3.1 -0.6 -2.8 -1.5 -0.8 0.3 1.5 0.2

Northern 0.0 -0.3 0.5 -0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.8 0.0 1.5 1.6 -0.4 -0.1 1.0 1.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1

Far North 0.6 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0

North West 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -1.3 1.0 0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1

Queensland 8.6 5.6 -2.2 7.3 19.5 4.2 4.6 -9.8 -3.5 3.7 2.4 0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 7.8 7.9 0.3



108 108 108

4. Queensland construction: Resources, capacity and price pressures

4.1 Utilisation of capacity

Over 2008 and 2009 the Queensland construction sector was operating above normal capacity levels. The excess demand was $5.2 billion for both years, implying an excess demand rate of 11%.

The impact of the GFC over 2010 and 2013 brought the Queensland construction sector back to demand-supply balance.

However, the build up in mining investment over 2012 increased excess demand in 2012 to $7 billion, or 12% of the construction activity. As can be seen below, this did not increase real costs in the Queensland construction industry at anywhere near the level expected given the historical record for the same level of excess demand.

It would appear that for private engineering major projects there is a degree of segmentation from the general construction sector in terms of spill-over effects. This is partly because engineering is less labour intensive than the non-engineering construction sector and, secondly, for major projects the labour supply can be more effectively managed with skill shortages partly met by the import of labour.

For 2013 the degree of excess demand fell to 6%, or $3.7 billion, mostly due to the fall in dwelling construction expenditures. In 2014 the degree of excess demand was 8%.

The relatively poor prospects for the industry for 2015 and 2016 mean that the excess capacity will be a feature of the period with excess capacity averaging 6% over these two years. By the end of the projection period excess capacity approaches double 10%.

4.2 Labour shortages

The estimate of labour shortages is a different concept to capacity utilisation. Capacity utilisation is measured by the ratio of desired employment to actual employment, given the level of construction activity. Labour shortages are measured by the difference between desired employment and the capacity of the region to supply construction labour.

As at the December quarter 2012, the construction industry at the State level was in surplus. However, there was considerable regional variation with a shortage of 4,000 in Mackay and 5,000 in Fitzroy. The surpluses in Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast summed to 20,000.

By the June 2014 as the labour intensive dwelling sector improves, the Queensland surplus has fallen to 4,000 and only a couple of regions have shortages, Mackay having the largest shortage with 3,000.

However as the engineering sector scales back the Queensland surplus increases reaching 19,000 by the December 2015 and easing to 8,000 by June 2016. The resource regions move from shortage to surplus over 2014 and 2015 remaining in surplus through to June 2016.



109 109 109

4.3 Queensland construction sector unemployment rates

The Australian Bureau of Statistics latest published labour force data indicate that, in trend terms, for the June quarter 2013 there are 10,000 unemployed construction workers in Queensland, this was down 8% on the figure for same period in 2013. Just before the GFC in December 2007 the number of unemployed construction workers was around 5,100. Since then the number has been steadily rising until it peaked at 12,400 in the September quarter of 2011.

The number employed in the construction industry in the December quarter 2007 was 231,000 the low point was the March quarter 2012 with a trend estimate of just under 222,000 employed in the construction industry in Queensland. The latest estimate for the June quarter 2014 is for just under 230,000 which is similar to the pre-GFC level.

The implied unemployment rate for the construction industry for June quarter 2014 is 4.1%, this is lower than for the June quarter 2013 when the unemployment rate in the construction industry was 4.4%.

The unemployment rate is projected to be stable over the next two years.

4.4 Construction cost inflation

The decline in total construction activity over the medium-term will ease cost pressures. However, new dwelling construction activity, which is highly skill and labour intensive, will place upward pressure on real costs. Between the June quarter 2013 and the June quarter 2014 real new dwelling construction costs are projected to decrease by 3.7% per annum. Engineering costs are projected to rise by 4.3% per annum, while non-residential building real costs are projected to decline by 3.1% per annum. The net impact on overall real construction costs will be a cumulative real cost decrease of 1.2% over the year. For June 2015 this cumulative change is an increase of just 0.8% per annum and for June 2016 an increase of 0.2% per annum.



110 110 110

Figure 4.1: Unused capacity in Queensland’s construction sector

Figure 4.2: Real construction costs versus labour shortage

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15Per cent

-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Exce

ss c

apac

ity

Re

al p

rice

gro

wth

Real total QLD construction total price growth - LHS

QLD construction excess capacity (a negative denotes excess capacity) - RHS



111 111 111

Figure 4.3: Annual growth in Queensland construction employment (%)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0Per cent


Table 4.1 Unutilised capacity in Queensland construction sectors: (a positive represents excess capacity)

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Queensland 0.0 -6.5 -1.1 -4.1 -7.9 1.2 3.4 2.7 -2.0 -3.6 -5.1 -4.5 -4.5

Table 4.2 Construction industry employment by Queensland regions

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 100076 98261 97115 97138 93093 95911 98402 97983 93775 90977 91262 93328 95101

Gold Coast 33500 30835 32316 35533 35241 37264 39669 41902 41460 40401 39965 40491 40811

Sunshine Coast 18362 17604 19718 20619 21413 22899 24183 24775 24122 23433 23247 23401 23521

West Moreton 2966 3009 2793 2803 3017 3570 3898 3985 3865 3693 4000 4682 5467

Wide Bay/Burnett 8618 8506 8695 8773 8829 9451 9989 10094 9739 9226 9199 9557 9726

Darling Downs 9128 9420 9327 8516 8808 8772 8151 7392 6641 6056 5775 6376 6836

South West 1095 1196 1189 881 605 389 335 358 276 234 226 228 235

Fitzroy 13327 15774 14983 13598 12946 11716 10485 9192 9144 9359 9723 9645 9650

Central West 787 782 823 686 701 1451 2102 2718 1889 1220 922 805 713

Mackay 11038 12194 16345 15032 11929 9132 9234 11010 13489 14296 13142 11706 10514

Northern 14342 15732 14957 14370 16903 21063 22315 22539 24528 27337 25028 21533 18856

Far North 15088 14230 12752 14226 14521 15709 16774 17563 17211 16719 16453 16188 15863

North West 1702 2514 2388 1789 2021 2445 2323 2012 1709 1475 1916 2008 2212

Queensland 230031 230056 233400 233963 230027 239771 247859 251523 247848 244427 240858 239949 239507


Table 4.3 Queensland regional construction excess capacity utilisation rates (positive denotes shortage of capacity) – %

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 3.9 -9.2 -4.3 -6.4 -14.5 -5.5 -3.7 -7.1 -14.9 -16.4 -13.1 -9.4 -7.9

Gold Coast -13.1 -16.5 -9.0 3.8 -7.1 3.7 10.4 15.3 6.6 1.8 2.2 6.0 6.3

Sunshine Coast -8.2 -26.6 12.4 3.1 5.7 15.2 19.4 18.0 8.5 4.5 5.5 7.4 7.5

West Moreton -35.3 -29.2 -32.6 -35.0 -26.2 -7.2 -6.4 -11.3 -19.7 -25.8 -10.5 9.9 26.3

Wide Bay/Burnett -16.2 -7.6 -12.6 -8.6 -8.5 3.5 7.9 4.2 -4.4 -11.5 -6.9 0.5 0.2

Darling Downs -4.6 -5.2 2.5 -22.4 -8.5 -12.3 -24.6 -33.6 -41.2 -45.5 -45.3 -30.6 -27.5

South West -13.9 -4.0 -23.5 -58.2 -75.8 -87.2 -79.2 -71.7 -85.5 -85.5 -83.5 -82.3 -81.4

Fitzroy 61.4 28.8 27.0 -1.5 -1.4 -16.3 -26.5 -37.6 -28.5 -25.2 -21.4 -25.6 -25.1

Central West 19.5 29.0 14.3 -23.3 1.0 213.2 294.6 382.1 54.8 -18.8 -7.1 3.9 -5.3

Mackay -19.5 25.8 21.4 8.6 -30.9 -51.0 -28.5 -2.9 20.2 12.9 -10.8 -23.9 -31.1

Northern 10.4 17.6 -3.1 -4.2 34.4 73.6 61.5 55.4 80.4 104.4 53.8 22.0 9.3

Far North 2.4 -14.4 -10.6 0.3 -5.4 8.0 14.0 17.4 7.9 4.0 4.1 2.8 0.7

North West 18.3 35.4 63.4 -28.1 36.7 74.9 34.8 4.8 -12.7 -22.3 49.2 34.3 56.2

Queensland 0.0 -6.5 -1.1 -4.1 -7.9 1.2 3.4 2.7 -2.0 -3.6 -5.1 -4.5 -4.5

Table 4.4 Queensland regional construction – excess demand (2007 $m)

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 753 -1884 -859 -1381 -3801 -1442 -981 -1682 -3466 -4013 -3345 -2420 -2021

Gold Coast -923 -1200 -641 294 -672 353 1010 1321 564 166 205 565 588

Sunshine Coast -329 -1088 496 134 299 807 1051 876 407 228 293 398 401

West Moreton -324 -245 -269 -313 -289 -80 -73 -117 -204 -285 -122 118 316

Wide Bay/Burnett -314 -145 -233 -172 -207 86 196 94 -95 -263 -165 12 4

Darling Downs -85 -102 47 -459 -212 -309 -623 -760 -913 -1064 -1102 -752 -673

South West -53 -11 -62 -165 -259 -297 -272 -218 -253 -265 -267 -263 -256

Fitzroy 1286 694 638 -38 -44 -515 -850 -1076 -804 -749 -663 -806 -788

Central West 24 42 20 -34 2 377 523 597 83 -30 -11 6 -8

Mackay -458 630 513 224 -994 -1656 -945 -87 594 401 -352 -788 -1024

Northern 263 494 -86 -124 1251 2688 2283 1835 2615 3582 1922 793 334

Far North 69 -446 -320 11 -211 313 559 615 274 145 154 105 26

North West 55 117 203 -96 152 309 145 18 -45 -83 188 131 211

Queensland -35 -3143 -554 -2120 -4986 633 2021 1414 -1244 -2229 -3265 -2899 -2890


Table 4.5 Queensland regional construction – labour shortage (+) or surplus (-) – number

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 3968 -9405 -4445 -6676 -15117 -5737 -3856 -7444 -15662 -17246 -13831 -9909 -8316

Gold Coast -4861 -5989 -3317 1420 -2673 1405 3972 5843 2547 712 848 2314 2421

Sunshine Coast -1734 -5430 2565 647 1188 3209 4133 3878 1838 980 1212 1631 1649

West Moreton -1708 -1223 -1390 -1515 -1149 -319 -288 -519 -921 -1223 -506 483 1302

Wide Bay/Burnett -1656 -725 -1208 -833 -823 341 770 415 -430 -1131 -681 49 18

Darling Downs -446 -509 243 -2221 -843 -1229 -2451 -3362 -4128 -4570 -4555 -3079 -2771

South West -278 -55 -322 -797 -1032 -1182 -1070 -964 -1144 -1138 -1102 -1077 -1054

Fitzroy 6775 3466 3302 -182 -174 -2047 -3343 -4761 -3633 -3219 -2743 -3299 -3244

Central West 127 208 102 -166 7 1499 2055 2642 375 -127 -47 26 -35

Mackay -2413 3147 2653 1083 -3954 -6586 -3716 -385 2686 1723 -1455 -3225 -4212

Northern 1387 2468 -446 -601 4974 10691 8976 8118 11818 15395 7946 3249 1374

Far North 364 -2227 -1655 53 -839 1245 2196 2719 1239 623 636 432 108

North West 290 584 1049 -464 605 1229 569 78 -205 -356 778 536 869

Queensland -185 -15689 -2869 -10252 -19830 2518 7947 6256 -5621 -9579 -13499 -11870 -11892

Table 4.6 Regional construction industry employment by segment

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Employment – building

Brisbane 24503 24314 24326 25519 25594 26111 26447 25990 25046 24378 23890 24086 24677

Gold Coast 8118 7051 7866 9952 10276 10969 11323 11358 11328 11064 10745 10744 10900

Sunshine Coast 4709 4928 6082 6073 6716 7061 7272 7244 7093 6873 6668 6698 6783

West Moreton 564 579 495 575 611 713 794 821 835 805 762 825 924

Wide Bay/Burnett 1709 1601 1633 1784 1960 2071 2115 2101 2062 1977 1843 1831 1824

Darling Downs 2107 2188 2173 2121 2114 2160 2035 1843 1671 1538 1427 1472 1541

South West 185 217 207 169 137 103 80 78 66 55 51 51 52

Fitzroy 2957 4375 4017 3135 3183 3043 2762 2435 2332 2341 2378 2406 2420

Central West 106 85 105 106 119 188 260 304 281 203 145 124 112

Mackay 2202 2731 2677 2123 1931 1609 1420 1495 1664 1759 1649 1499 1347

Northern 3078 3587 3294 3279 3702 4459 4776 4745 4841 5143 4951 4541 4131

Far North 3794 3389 2690 3324 3914 4354 4589 4671 4629 4485 4290 4208 4096

North West 251 246 245 158 177 200 192 164 135 117 123 130 133

Queensland 54283 55291 55810 58319 60436 63040 64064 63249 61982 60738 58924 58615 58940


Table 4.6 Regional construction industry employment by segment (continued)

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Employment – engineering

Brisbane 9344 9891 10059 8600 6788 7313 7630 7591 7236 6656 6981 7659 7865

Gold Coast 2293 2461 2533 1990 1819 2007 2349 2832 2847 2585 2579 2803 2833

Sunshine Coast 1190 1170 1180 1314 1128 1355 1583 1759 1770 1658 1694 1777 1806

West Moreton 355 397 423 415 333 425 442 422 382 314 431 611 779

Wide Bay/Burnett 901 982 1085 1010 894 1017 1133 1150 1106 942 1022 1182 1228

Darling Downs 950 1082 1116 769 894 820 686 587 522 437 419 558 623

South West 251 282 303 166 78 30 34 43 23 19 20 21 22

Fitzroy 1828 1913 1914 1952 1435 1139 957 793 916 952 1007 970 976

Central West 231 260 277 173 172 492 748 1034 462 209 165 150 126

Mackay 1509 1755 2931 2766 1569 914 1167 1689 2463 2512 2051 1719 1495

Northern 1498 1659 1708 1635 2135 2928 2890 2900 3735 4413 3299 2381 1874

Far North 1207 1365 1424 1409 1087 1126 1208 1321 1286 1172 1159 1150 1117

North West 225 364 378 211 264 348 293 232 195 158 276 278 337

Queensland 21781 23582 25331 22409 18598 19915 21121 22351 22942 22027 21103 21259 21082

Employment – construction services

Brisbane 66229 64056 62730 63019 60710 62486 64325 64402 61494 59943 60391 61583 62559

Gold Coast 23088 21323 21917 23591 23147 24288 25997 27712 27286 26752 26640 26944 27078

Sunshine Coast 12463 11506 12456 13232 13569 14482 15328 15772 15259 14903 14885 14926 14932

West Moreton 2048 2032 1876 1814 2073 2432 2663 2742 2649 2574 2807 3246 3764

Wide Bay/Burnett 6008 5922 5977 5978 5974 6363 6741 6844 6571 6306 6334 6544 6674

Darling Downs 6072 6150 6037 5626 5800 5792 5429 4963 4448 4080 3929 4347 4672

South West 659 697 679 546 390 255 221 236 186 160 155 157 161

Fitzroy 8542 9486 9051 8511 8327 7534 6765 5964 5896 6066 6338 6268 6254

Central West 451 438 441 407 409 771 1094 1380 1146 808 612 530 475

Mackay 7327 7708 10737 10143 8429 6610 6648 7827 9362 10026 9442 8488 7673

Northern 9766 10486 9955 9457 11066 13675 14650 14893 15952 17782 16777 14611 12851

Far North 10087 9475 8638 9493 9520 10229 10977 11572 11296 11062 11004 10830 10650

North West 1227 1904 1765 1420 1580 1897 1838 1616 1379 1200 1518 1600 1742

Queensland 153967 151183 152260 153236 150994 156816 162675 165923 162924 161662 160831 160074 159485


Table 4.6 Regional construction industry employment by segment (continued)

Fiscal years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Employment – total

Brisbane 81703 89220 93147 99450 97463 96134 100076 98261 97115 97138 93093 95911 98402

Gold Coast 31047 35485 37759 36738 34979 36100 33500 30835 32316 35533 35241 37264 39669

Sunshine Coast 18605 19915 20902 20637 20459 20265 18362 17604 19718 20619 21413 22899 24183

West Moreton 3835 4076 4197 4949 5229 3901 2966 3009 2793 2803 3017 3570 3898

Wide Bay/Burnett 11194 11493 11012 10613 10009 9417 8618 8506 8695 8773 8829 9451 9989

Darling Downs 11267 10445 9683 9360 10159 9294 9128 9420 9327 8516 8808 8772 8151

South West 1067 1025 2894 2981 1901 1074 1095 1196 1189 881 605 389 335

Fitzroy 10443 11044 11298 10940 10284 10927 13327 15774 14983 13598 12946 11716 10485

Central West 507 479 490 594 625 726 787 782 823 686 701 1451 2102

Mackay 8400 11595 12808 11810 11803 12164 11038 12194 16345 15032 11929 9132 9234

Northern 9373 10453 11554 12487 12889 13371 14342 15732 14957 14370 16903 21063 22315

Far North 12152 13134 13859 15418 15822 14127 15088 14230 12752 14226 14521 15709 16774

North West 1134 1174 1127 1527 1585 1562 1702 2514 2388 1789 2021 2445 2323

Queensland 200726 219538 230732 237503 233205 229062 230031 230056 233400 233963 230027 239771 247859



117 117 117

5. Quarterly profiles

The attached tables of quarterly profiles are consistent with the annual profiles discussed above to June 2016.


Table 5.1 Value of work done: Residential new construction (including major additions) by region– chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 972 1093 1236 1249 1229 1244 1277 1321 1280 1310 1332 1336 11.5 3.7

Gold Coast 196 217 224 251 274 300 328 355 357 376 391 399 41.7 21.1

Sunshine Coast 150 175 189 195 202 213 226 241 239 250 258 263 24.4 14.5

West Moreton 37 36 40 41 44 48 52 56 56 59 62 64 29.1 21.1

Wide Bay/Burnett 79 80 90 87 94 102 111 120 120 127 131 132 26.8 19.8

Darling Downs 105 105 114 107 108 111 117 122 120 124 127 127 6.5 8.7

South West 11 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 -4.7 28.2

Fitzroy 214 169 137 109 116 125 134 143 142 149 154 156 -17.6 16.0

Central West 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 135.4 60.1

Mackay 189 160 136 99 101 107 112 119 117 121 124 123 -24.8 10.5

Northern 104 101 109 105 112 120 130 139 139 145 150 151 19.9 16.7

Far North 69 70 72 62 76 89 102 114 117 125 132 135 39.6 33.5

North West 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 40.5 29.7

Queensland 2131 2221 2359 2317 2369 2476 2608 2751 2708 2810 2885 2911 13.0 10.9


Table 5.2 Value of work done: Residential other renovations by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 536 548 579 592 610 617 612 619 624 652 632 680 9.0 5.3

Gold Coast 207 210 221 224 230 231 228 230 231 240 233 250 6.5 3.8

Sunshine Coast 133 135 142 144 148 149 147 149 149 155 151 162 7.1 4.0

West Moreton 23 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 29 8.1 5.4

Wide Bay/Burnett 69 71 74 75 77 78 77 77 78 81 78 84 6.7 3.8

Darling Downs 45 46 49 50 51 52 51 52 53 55 54 58 9.5 5.9

South West 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 11.1 8.4

Fitzroy 46 48 51 53 54 55 55 55 56 59 57 62 10.4 6.5

Central West 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8.9 11.5

Mackay 45 47 50 51 53 53 53 53 54 56 55 59 10.0 5.6

Northern 59 60 64 65 67 67 67 67 68 71 69 74 8.1 5.2

Far North 70 71 74 75 77 77 76 77 77 80 78 83 6.1 3.6

North West 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 11.0 9.7

Queensland 1241 1266 1336 1363 1403 1414 1400 1415 1426 1487 1442 1551 8.2 4.9


Table 5.3 Value of work done: Private residential building by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 1508 1641 1814 1841 1839 1861 1889 1940 1904 1962 1965 2016 10.6 4.2

Gold Coast 403 427 445 475 504 532 556 585 588 616 624 648 24.4 13.8

Sunshine Coast 282 310 331 340 350 362 374 389 388 405 409 424 16.8 10.3

West Moreton 59 59 65 66 69 73 77 82 82 86 88 92 21.1 15.7

Wide Bay/Burnett 148 151 165 163 171 180 188 197 198 208 210 216 17.5 13.1

Darling Downs 150 150 162 156 159 163 168 174 173 179 180 185 7.4 7.8

South West 16 13 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 1.2 20.1

Fitzroy 261 217 188 162 170 180 189 199 198 207 211 218 -10.9 13.2

Central West 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 65.7 42.5

Mackay 234 207 185 150 154 160 165 172 171 178 178 182 -16.1 8.9

Northern 163 161 172 170 178 188 196 206 207 216 219 225 15.5 12.7

Far North 139 141 146 137 153 167 178 191 194 206 209 218 22.3 20.2

North West 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 32.4 25.0

Queensland 3372 3487 3695 3680 3771 3890 4008 4166 4134 4297 4327 4462 11.3 8.7


Table 5.4 Value of work done: Non-residential building by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 846 753 757 853 920 921 827 816 831 901 894 914 8.6 1.6

Gold Coast 107 125 181 421 455 337 252 236 219 216 216 223 53.7 -31.8

Sunshine Coast 303 382 285 176 98 142 219 291 239 222 214 212 -34.6 18.3

West Moreton 15 19 16 10 6 7 10 12 15 20 20 21 -41.7 112.5

Wide Bay/Burnett 61 55 55 62 63 61 55 57 58 62 61 63 0.5 3.9

Darling Downs 82 72 66 80 95 96 84 81 77 79 79 81 18.6 -11.2

South West 10 9 7 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 4.2 6.9

Fitzroy 242 152 94 64 48 57 72 90 106 130 124 122 -51.4 79.8

Central West 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 -19.9 9.7

Mackay 75 62 72 74 63 61 64 71 71 77 76 78 -9.0 16.4

Northern 92 64 67 59 47 50 59 69 70 75 75 78 -20.2 32.4

Far North 28 35 46 50 45 47 50 57 55 58 60 64 24.5 19.2

North West 18 27 30 19 7 6 13 19 17 17 16 16 -51.3 48.0

Queensland 1884 1759 1680 1877 1856 1797 1717 1811 1771 1869 1847 1883 -0.3 2.6


Table 5.5 Value of work done: Total engineering construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 1807 1848 1660 1489 1551 1549 1374 1298 1123 1039 987 1023 -15.2 -27.7

Gold Coast 399 390 350 316 343 353 301 273 245 239 234 247 -12.7 -24.1

Sunshine Coast 247 285 261 239 255 270 245 233 214 214 211 218 -2.8 -14.6

West Moreton 65 78 68 60 66 61 57 56 54 59 62 71 -11.7 2.7

Wide Bay/Burnett 197 188 163 131 103 196 191 180 159 150 136 144 -1.6 -12.0

Darling Downs 903 937 938 862 670 599 586 644 815 835 769 755 -31.3 27.0

South West 667 702 574 407 433 330 262 232 200 183 166 135 -46.5 -45.6

Fitzroy 4017 3970 3784 3266 3076 3158 3015 2804 2938 3218 3020 2807 -19.8 -0.6

Central West 101 95 90 68 73 59 50 45 40 38 36 186 -36.0 32.2

Mackay 1640 1676 1602 1581 1607 1494 1448 1507 1158 868 765 732 -6.8 -41.8

Northern 288 254 233 215 232 265 242 234 220 442 485 499 -1.6 69.1

Far North 261 212 288 316 395 345 221 215 203 231 230 239 9.2 -23.1

North West 384 402 318 221 87 171 159 144 272 293 265 288 -57.7 99.9

Queensland 10974 11038 10330 9170 8890 8848 8151 7865 7641 7809 7366 7346 -18.7 -10.6


Table 5.6 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year ($ million)

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Annual growth rate

2014-15 2015-16

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 4164 4247 4239 4189 4315 4336 4097 4060 3865 3909 3853 3964 -0.2 -7.2

Gold Coast 909 943 977 1212 1302 1223 1110 1094 1052 1072 1074 1120 17.0 -8.7

Sunshine Coast 832 977 877 755 703 775 838 913 842 842 834 855 -6.1 4.4

West Moreton 139 157 149 137 142 141 144 150 152 165 171 184 -0.8 16.3

Wide Bay/Burnett 406 394 384 357 337 437 434 435 416 421 408 425 6.6 1.6

Darling Downs 1136 1161 1168 1099 925 859 839 900 1066 1094 1029 1021 -22.8 19.5

South West 694 725 592 424 452 351 284 254 223 207 191 161 -44.9 -41.8

Fitzroy 4525 4346 4073 3495 3297 3398 3279 3096 3246 3559 3358 3152 -20.5 1.9

Central West 110 103 96 73 79 66 58 55 50 48 46 197 -32.3 31.9

Mackay 1950 1946 1862 1807 1825 1715 1678 1752 1402 1123 1021 994 -7.9 -34.9

Northern 546 484 478 447 460 506 501 514 500 737 783 808 1.3 42.7

Far North 431 391 484 505 594 560 451 464 454 496 501 524 14.3 -4.5

North West 409 437 356 248 103 187 183 174 301 323 294 318 -55.4 91.5

Queensland 16251 16311 15735 14747 14535 14553 13896 13862 13567 13997 13562 13721 -9.8 -3.5


Table 5.7 Value of work done: Total construction activity by region – chain volume measure 2011-12 reference year – Qtr. 3 2013-14 = 100

2013-14

Sep. 2013-14

Dec. 2013-14

Mar. 2013-14

Jun. 2014-15

Sep. 2014-15

Dec. 2014-15

Mar. 2014-15

Jun. 2015-16

Sep. 2015-16

Dec. 2015-16

Mar. 2015-16

Jun.

Actual Forecast

Brisbane 98 100 100 99 102 102 97 96 91 92 91 94

Gold Coast 93 97 100 124 133 125 114 112 108 110 110 115

Sunshine Coast 95 111 100 86 80 88 96 104 96 96 95 97

West Moreton 93 105 100 91 95 95 96 101 102 110 114 123

Wide Bay/Burnett 106 103 100 93 88 114 113 113 108 110 106 111

Darling Downs 97 99 100 94 79 74 72 77 91 94 88 87

South West 117 123 100 72 76 59 48 43 38 35 32 27

Fitzroy 111 107 100 86 81 83 81 76 80 87 82 77

Central West 115 107 100 76 82 69 61 58 52 50 48 206

Mackay 105 105 100 97 98 92 90 94 75 60 55 53

Northern 114 101 100 94 96 106 105 107 105 154 164 169

Far North 89 81 100 104 123 116 93 96 94 103 104 108

North West 115 123 100 70 29 52 51 49 85 91 83 89

Queensland 103 104 100 94 92 92 88 88 86 89 86 87


Table 5.8 Queensland construction industry – real quarterly price growth at annual rates (%)

2013-14

September 2013-14

December 2013-14

March 2013-14

June 2014-15

September 2014-15

December 2014-15

March 2014-15

June 2015-16

September

Average 2013-14 and

2015-16

Actual Forecast

Non-residential building -0.5 1.6 -0.5 -3.1 -1.6 -8.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.6 -1.6

Residential building -4.2 -3.5 -1.2 -3.7 3.3 3.0 -2.0 0.7 0.7 -0.8

Engineering construction -7.0 3.2 1.2 4.3 3.7 -3.2 0.9 1.8 -0.2 0.5

Total construction -4.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 2.5 -1.3 -0.9 0.8 0.2 -0.6

Note: Real price/cost growth is the nominal rate of increase less the increase in the Queensland financial demand implicit deflator.

Table 5.9 Shortage of construction labour by Queensland region – number ‘000 (shortage is donated by (+) and surplus (-))

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

Brisbane -3.4 -4.1 -4.8 -5.5 -7.7 -9.9 -12.1 -14.3 -12.0 -9.6

Gold Coast -1.8 -0.5 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0

Sunshine Coast 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.3

West Moreton -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8

Wide Bay/Burnett -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0

Darling Downs -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0

South West 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0

Fitzroy 0.1 -0.5 -1.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -2.4

Central West 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8

Mackay 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 0.9 -0.6 -2.1 -3.6 -4.3 -5.0

Northern -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.1

Far North -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.1

North West 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Queensland -2.9 -4.4 -5.9 -7.4 -10.3 -13.2 -16.1 -19.0 -13.5 -8.0

Trend Queensland construction workers unemployed (‘000) 12.1 10.0 10.0 10.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 12.1 11.6 11.9



126 126

Appendix A

Additional annual tables


Table A.1 Total regional population – ‘000

Fiscal years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 2204 2245 2286 2328 2370 2412 2454 2495 2538 2580 2621 Gold Coast 547 560 573 586 598 611 623 635 647 658 670 Sunshine Coast 336 343 351 359 367 375 383 392 400 408 417 West Moreton 101 104 107 110 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 Wide Bay/Burnett 291 296 301 306 312 317 323 329 335 341 348 Darling Downs 244 248 252 256 261 265 270 274 279 285 290 South West 27 27 27 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 Fitzroy 233 239 244 249 254 259 264 270 275 281 286 Central West 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Mackay 184 189 194 199 204 209 214 219 224 229 233 Northern 238 243 248 253 258 263 268 273 278 283 288 Far North 276 281 285 290 294 298 302 307 311 315 319 North West 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 38 39 39 Queensland 4729 4823 4917 5013 5108 5205 5301 5398 5496 5593 5691

Table A.2 Share of regional population in total Queensland population – %

Fiscal years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 46.6 46.5 46.5 46.4 46.4 46.3 46.3 46.2 46.2 46.1 46.1 Gold Coast 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 Sunshine Coast 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 West Moreton 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Wide Bay/Burnett 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Darling Downs 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 South West 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Fitzroy 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Central West 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Mackay 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Northern 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Far North 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 North West 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Queensland 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


Table A.3(a) Total Queensland construction by region – share of residential activity in total regional activity (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 55.2 50.2 48.3 40.5 35.9 38.3 37.1 37.3 37.9 40.5 44.9 50.5 48.7 47.8 48.0 51.3 49.5 45.5 43.6 42.8 Gold Coast 67.5 66.7 62.2 59.0 53.9 47.9 45.3 44.6 42.8 43.4 46.1 57.5 56.2 52.8 48.8 51.4 50.8 47.9 45.7 45.1 Sunshine Coast 72.0 64.3 70.5 66.1 60.8 56.5 40.4 42.5 50.0 36.7 45.7 48.3 48.3 47.0 46.2 49.1 48.2 45.2 44.1 43.8 West Moreton 63.3 51.3 49.1 48.6 36.0 45.8 48.5 49.0 50.4 43.0 52.4 52.1 46.5 47.5 49.5 54.3 56.0 43.9 35.6 30.7 Wide Bay/ Burnett 59.3 55.9 61.4 60.2 59.2 54.1 53.4 47.2 40.4 40.8 45.0 50.1 47.1 44.4 44.1 46.9 47.7 41.5 37.2 35.1 Darling Downs 39.8 35.6 27.1 25.1 24.3 30.2 23.9 19.7 16.3 13.7 18.9 17.1 18.9 21.6 23.5 26.1 26.6 24.4 18.7 16.9 South West 21.5 20.6 15.3 6.1 5.2 9.2 3.8 1.7 2.0 2.1 3.8 7.8 17.7 11.8 8.8 17.3 16.6 14.2 13.5 13.1 Fitzroy 31.9 25.2 22.7 27.9 17.5 15.5 10.9 5.3 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.4 8.3 9.6 11.1 9.6 8.8 8.1 8.6 8.6 Central West 11.4 12.4 11.7 12.1 12.2 12.8 10.6 10.1 5.3 3.1 7.5 8.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 7.9 14.7 12.8 11.9 13.2 Mackay 46.2 41.7 36.1 33.9 24.4 24.2 15.9 15.5 12.6 10.3 9.4 15.7 22.9 15.1 10.5 8.1 8.0 9.0 10.1 10.3 Northern 46.8 42.4 39.6 41.8 43.4 37.6 36.6 30.9 28.9 35.0 39.5 31.3 26.3 28.0 28.0 23.6 19.8 24.5 30.4 33.4 Far North 53.6 55.2 57.8 56.4 45.8 49.8 42.0 35.5 37.8 31.7 33.6 42.3 41.2 39.2 36.9 39.3 38.5 35.4 34.8 33.7 North West 8.2 7.7 4.4 5.9 5.6 6.6 4.6 3.6 2.3 2.2 6.3 4.1 3.8 5.0 6.2 7.3 7.6 3.6 4.0 3.3 Queensland 55.8 50.5 47.4 43.4 37.8 38.1 32.2 25.8 22.9 22.7 28.0 31.6 33.3 33.1 32.3 32.3 31.1 29.7 29.6 29.2

Table A.3(b) Total Queensland construction by region – share of non-residential activity in total regional activity (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Table A.3(c) Total Queensland construction by region – share of total engineering activity in total regional activity (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


Table A.4 Share of public expenditures in regional total expenditures (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Table A.5(a) Queensland construction by region – share of public residential expenditure in total regional residential expenditure (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


Table A.5(b) Queensland construction by region – share of public non-residential building expenditure in total regional non-residential building expenditure (%)

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024



Table A.5(c) Queensland construction by region – share of public engineering in total regional engineering expenditure (including Commonwealth) – %

Fiscal years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024


Table A.6 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Private housing expenditure on new construction and alterations (excluding other work done)

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 4859 4951 4900 5014 5085 4791 4623 4448 4460 3989 4550 5071 5257 5740 5784 5580 5540 5296 5060 5175 5268

Gold Coast 2478 2457 2263 2307 2133 1936 1758 1143 856 741 887 1257 1522 1752 1785 1721 1706 1628 1541 1561 1580

Sunshine Coast 1423 1457 1195 1153 1223 1117 965 852 706 628 709 882 1010 1159 1197 1171 1171 1122 1068 1092 1117

West Moreton 144 193 204 195 182 216 238 211 176 207 154 199 241 286 306 309 317 310 297 307 314

Wide Bay/ Burnett 562 692 764 834 817 691 636 516 402 371 336 426 511 559 550 526 521 494 443 432 404

Darling Downs 308 375 449 465 382 329 436 461 384 438 430 458 498 535 524 498 495 472 426 418 393

South West 10 12 16 20 18 17 19 16 22 45 31 30 38 48 53 54 53 51 48 49 50

Fitzroy 296 301 366 505 556 438 331 331 462 740 629 518 601 687 707 692 698 675 651 673 688

Central West 4 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 11 12 5 12 19 27 30 29 29 28 27 28 28

Mackay 257 357 478 534 568 446 501 428 416 675 584 439 485 511 490 457 442 409 357 339 309

Northern 372 505 606 645 708 686 557 440 447 478 418 501 585 650 649 622 615 586 541 540 539

Far North 450 564 669 744 866 631 471 365 396 374 273 381 509 592 601 579 572 539 484 472 441

North West 6 6 11 14 21 20 22 21 17 18 21 30 39 46 47 44 42 38 33 32 30

Queensland 11169 11874 11926 12435 12566 11323 10565 9239 8755 8717 9027 10204 11314 12591 12723 12282 12200 11648 10977 11118 11163


Table A.7 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Public housing

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 92 121 150 97 87 86 175 223 56 12 23 26 32 47 44 45 54 58 57 60 62

Gold Coast 6 6 8 8 7 6 17 22 8 2 3 3 4 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7

Sunshine Coast 9 3 10 6 8 8 17 16 4 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4

West Moreton 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Wide Bay/ Burnett 3 3 8 8 11 9 16 59 5 1 2 4 4 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9

Darling Downs 6 5 5 3 4 6 13 20 4 2 5 2 3 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6

South West 2 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

Fitzroy 4 4 9 14 18 4 22 43 9 21 22 11 14 21 19 20 23 25 25 27 27

Central West 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Mackay 4 6 2 4 7 14 17 24 8 3 6 4 5 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10

Northern 35 29 26 23 17 22 94 91 40 6 20 14 18 26 24 25 29 32 31 33 34

Far North 16 11 9 12 13 11 30 52 14 8 11 7 9 13 12 13 15 16 16 17 17

North West 1 2 3 1 1 4 1 6 9 2 3 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5

Queensland 177 192 232 177 178 172 408 559 160 60 98 76 96 140 130 135 159 171 169 180 185

Table A.8 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Non-residential building private

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 1708 1774 2401 2723 3593 3324 2377 2346 2621 2447 2202 2605 2585 2829 2978 2881 2394 2679 3003 3001 3060

Gold Coast 546 684 590 690 483 645 527 335 341 366 696 1122 734 776 810 780 646 721 805 803 815

Sunshine Coast 285 239 355 327 255 224 175 159 289 175 1019 500 737 681 622 541 412 432 462 451 429

West Moreton 14 19 50 27 34 44 31 31 30 23 20 17 35 45 52 54 48 56 66 67 73

Wide Bay/ Burnett 90 121 208 162 166 142 210 128 85 75 153 136 165 181 191 186 155 174 196 196 201

Darling Downs 97 96 124 202 110 128 162 193 168 214 241 229 247 258 260 242 196 215 238 236 237

South West 3 4 7 8 2 5 11 13 26 34 18 29 25 26 26 24 19 21 23 22 22

Fitzroy 79 83 110 148 134 218 132 167 278 626 368 189 350 358 349 318 252 273 298 294 289

Central West 5 7 5 1 4 2 5 3 3 4 12 6 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 8 8

Mackay 81 85 174 202 206 268 181 449 218 315 222 220 250 273 286 276 229 256 287 287 293

Northern 117 143 203 223 207 236 197 244 300 178 181 144 215 246 266 262 221 250 282 283 292

Far North 176 260 170 177 261 233 131 171 146 82 99 100 164 208 238 242 209 239 272 274 286

North West 5 5 11 17 18 11 13 30 19 34 85 36 60 55 48 41 30 31 32 31 28

Queensland 3205 3520 4409 4907 5473 5481 4152 4269 4523 4572 5317 5332 5578 5947 6135 5856 4818 5354 5972 5954 6031


Table A.9 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Non-residential building public

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 688 594 730 836 802 1062 1307 2225 1706 639 1007 878 954 981 939 953 852 1042 1158 1163 1268

Gold Coast 91 103 67 210 87 56 1015 729 291 275 137 158 139 162 167 175 158 195 217 218 238

Sunshine Coast 75 34 65 41 71 94 149 104 85 66 126 249 150 136 137 146 136 172 197 200 223

West Moreton 14 7 32 64 31 254 100 39 22 27 40 19 41 47 47 49 45 55 62 62 69

Wide Bay/ Burnett 30 48 65 34 34 38 143 117 51 36 81 99 79 81 79 81 74 92 104 106 117

Darling Downs 20 52 60 26 48 13 88 83 48 14 59 127 69 76 79 85 80 102 118 120 135

South West 1 2 16 4 16 4 20 22 6 19 15 5 12 11 10 10 8 10 11 11 12

Fitzroy 16 11 35 54 33 20 84 127 96 303 184 80 132 114 96 89 74 86 92 91 96

Central West 3 2 3 2 4 4 6 31 10 12 2 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

Mackay 8 25 30 25 29 13 200 181 39 161 62 39 51 48 45 46 40 48 52 52 56

Northern 71 93 56 291 159 125 350 128 292 553 100 81 83 89 89 92 82 100 111 112 122

Far North 38 27 74 80 116 336 190 215 317 104 60 99 73 82 85 91 83 103 116 117 128

North West 15 5 3 5 9 2 16 31 29 45 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11

Queensland 1070 1004 1236 1672 1438 2021 3669 4033 2990 2254 1882 1849 1791 1835 1784 1826 1641 2017 2250 2264 2477

Table A.10 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Private engineering

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 1861 2170 2491 2762 4926 6687 6061 5568 5589 4888 4627 3577 2148 2415 3058 3218 2848 2966 3466 3870 4137

Gold Coast 569 579 741 693 1181 1367 1183 1035 981 849 921 817 502 570 713 838 753 789 925 1043 1122

Sunshine Coast 352 439 380 341 500 597 708 1567 1013 603 652 534 329 337 445 546 492 516 606 686 739

West Moreton 92 121 116 78 114 134 128 147 139 119 128 112 65 67 87 104 91 93 108 120 127

Wide Bay/ Burnett 216 285 255 181 177 101 77 64 128 272 229 184 65 29 38 45 40 41 47 52 56

Darling Downs 383 605 800 1311 1424 1386 1067 1815 2269 2650 3018 1791 2191 1890 1366 1165 1142 1023 1034 1764 2004

South West 38 51 52 144 544 604 295 916 2583 2868 2265 1195 608 209 467 717 274 280 323 332 349

Fitzroy 226 454 829 1838 1541 2511 2491 4059 11802 13634 14538 11547 11335 9104 7856 6629 8338 9004 9593 8508 8419

Central West 27 39 40 29 42 49 47 81 144 279 312 183 248 943 1214 1512 401 155 179 197 152

Mackay 215 266 379 762 922 1200 1367 2243 2724 5166 6055 5624 3339 1881 2715 3669 4709 3581 2950 4276 4070

Northern 333 449 681 686 817 702 763 710 669 575 617 513 1066 1584 759 651 1606 2611 1529 821 645

Far North 86 190 226 264 314 349 335 388 411 377 611 741 350 320 423 522 444 460 487 456 451

North West 63 73 122 350 382 468 382 565 778 1008 1231 446 991 1296 916 643 507 434 1106 974 1190

Queensland 4460 5722 7110 9438 12885 16158 14904 19160 29229 33287 35203 27266 23239 20647 20056 20261 21645 21952 22354 23099 23461


Table A.11 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Public engineering

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 1280 1525 1915 2110 2147 2126 2235 2328 2571 2318 2177 2194 2024 2743 2471 2164 1920 1585 1762 2202 2217

Gold Coast 184 290 265 511 511 490 405 381 515 564 534 453 462 645 821 1101 1027 835 788 927 896

Sunshine Coast 137 112 256 88 166 242 256 273 298 292 380 470 528 784 896 919 864 780 798 837 829

West Moreton 27 21 96 151 128 136 156 119 107 126 143 128 182 306 286 235 189 137 304 531 722

Wide Bay/ Burnett 223 226 337 377 402 434 422 478 563 581 451 485 524 723 819 797 713 602 735 919 954

Darling Downs 119 108 201 312 208 144 206 265 328 428 623 709 984 1093 1094 940 696 631 675 735 711

South West 65 56 61 67 54 49 56 49 239 204 86 62 76 95 97 103 99 94 119 150 164

Fitzroy 417 495 714 445 319 297 388 469 486 583 499 506 649 959 976 849 675 677 810 1405 1723

Central West 43 36 39 56 50 41 42 33 56 51 43 44 52 69 75 80 77 73 89 107 120

Mackay 198 226 327 304 337 526 509 423 235 202 444 432 185 339 1129 2112 2940 3704 2735 549 314

Northern 199 195 272 254 219 216 255 252 345 430 372 460 579 819 1415 1467 1181 773 758 769 667

Far North 333 306 362 307 271 255 217 206 378 501 465 434 553 732 736 746 696 612 623 659 647

North West 105 103 131 129 93 55 45 76 72 92 93 113 127 175 203 215 206 194 192 188 183

Queensland 3330 3698 4975 5113 4905 5012 5192 5352 6192 6372 6310 6489 6924 9482 11019 11728 11284 10698 10389 9978 10146

Table A.12 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Non-residential building total

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 2396 2369 3131 3559 4395 4386 3684 4571 4327 3085 3209 3483 3540 3809 3918 3834 3246 3721 4161 4164 4328

Gold Coast 636 787 658 901 570 702 1542 1065 632 641 833 1280 872 939 977 955 805 916 1022 1021 1054

Sunshine Coast 360 274 420 368 326 319 324 264 373 241 1146 750 887 818 759 686 548 604 659 651 652

West Moreton 28 26 81 90 65 298 131 70 52 49 61 35 75 91 99 103 92 112 128 130 141

Wide Bay/ Burnett 121 169 273 196 200 180 353 245 136 111 233 235 244 262 270 267 229 267 300 302 318

Darling Downs 117 148 184 228 158 142 250 276 216 228 300 356 316 335 339 327 276 317 356 356 372

South West 4 6 23 12 18 8 30 35 32 53 33 34 37 37 36 34 27 31 34 33 34

Fitzroy 95 93 145 201 167 238 216 294 374 929 552 268 482 472 444 407 326 359 390 385 385

Central West 8 9 8 3 8 6 10 34 13 16 14 12 13 12 12 11 9 10 10 10 10

Mackay 88 110 205 227 234 281 381 630 256 476 284 259 301 321 331 321 269 304 339 339 349

Northern 188 236 259 513 366 361 547 372 591 731 282 225 298 335 355 354 303 350 393 395 414

Far North 213 287 244 257 377 570 321 386 463 186 160 199 237 290 323 333 292 342 388 391 414

North West 20 10 14 23 27 12 30 60 48 78 93 45 67 62 56 49 38 40 42 41 39

Queensland 4275 4524 5645 6579 6911 7502 7820 8302 7513 6826 7199 7180 7368 7782 7919 7682 6459 7371 8223 8218 8509


Table A.13 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Engineering total

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 3141 3695 4406 4871 7073 8814 8295 7897 8160 7206 6804 5771 4173 5158 5528 5382 4768 4551 5228 6072 6354

Gold Coast 753 868 1006 1204 1692 1858 1588 1416 1496 1412 1455 1270 964 1215 1534 1939 1780 1624 1713 1971 2019

Sunshine Coast 489 551 636 429 666 839 964 1840 1311 895 1032 1003 857 1122 1341 1465 1356 1296 1404 1523 1568

West Moreton 119 143 212 230 242 270 284 266 245 246 272 240 246 373 373 339 281 230 412 651 849

Wide Bay/ Burnett 439 511 591 558 579 535 499 542 692 852 680 669 589 752 857 843 753 642 782 971 1010

Darling Downs 502 713 1001 1623 1632 1530 1274 2081 2597 3078 3640 2500 3175 2983 2459 2106 1838 1654 1710 2499 2715

South West 103 107 113 212 598 653 351 965 2822 3072 2351 1258 684 304 564 820 373 374 442 482 513

Fitzroy 643 949 1543 2283 1861 2809 2879 4528 12288 14217 15037 12053 11984 10063 8831 7478 9013 9681 10403 9913 10141

Central West 69 75 80 85 91 90 88 114 200 329 355 227 300 1012 1289 1592 479 228 268 304 272

Mackay 413 492 705 1066 1260 1726 1876 2667 2958 5368 6499 6056 3524 2220 3844 5782 7648 7285 5685 4825 4383

Northern 532 644 953 941 1036 918 1018 962 1014 1005 989 973 1645 2403 2174 2118 2787 3385 2287 1590 1311

Far North 418 496 588 571 585 604 552 594 789 878 1076 1175 903 1052 1159 1268 1141 1072 1110 1114 1098

North West 168 176 252 479 475 523 427 641 849 1100 1324 559 1118 1471 1119 858 713 628 1298 1163 1373

Queensland 7790 9420 12086 14551 17790 21169 20096 24512 35421 39659 41513 33754 30163 30129 31075 31989 32929 32650 32743 33077 33607

Table A.14 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Total residential (excluding other work done)

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 4952 5071 5051 5111 5172 4878 4799 4671 4516 4002 4572 5096 5290 5787 5827 5626 5593 5354 5117 5235 5330

Gold Coast 2483 2463 2271 2314 2140 1941 1775 1164 864 743 891 1260 1526 1758 1790 1726 1713 1635 1548 1568 1587

Sunshine Coast 1432 1461 1205 1159 1231 1125 981 869 709 628 709 884 1012 1162 1200 1174 1174 1126 1072 1096 1121

West Moreton 144 193 204 195 182 217 242 213 178 208 155 200 242 287 307 310 319 312 299 309 317

Wide Bay/ Burnett 565 694 772 843 827 700 652 575 407 372 339 430 515 565 556 532 529 502 451 440 413

Darling Downs 314 381 453 468 386 335 449 481 388 440 435 460 501 540 528 503 500 478 431 424 399

South West 12 14 17 21 21 18 20 17 22 46 32 30 39 49 54 54 54 51 49 50 51

Fitzroy 300 305 375 519 575 443 353 374 471 761 651 529 615 707 726 712 721 700 676 700 715

Central West 5 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 13 12 5 12 20 27 30 30 30 28 28 29 29

Mackay 261 362 480 538 574 459 518 452 424 679 590 443 490 518 497 464 450 418 366 349 319

Northern 407 535 632 668 726 707 651 531 487 484 438 515 603 676 673 646 645 617 572 573 573

Far North 466 575 678 756 879 642 501 416 410 382 284 388 518 605 613 591 587 555 500 489 459

North West 6 8 14 14 23 24 23 27 26 20 24 32 41 49 50 48 46 42 38 37 34

Queensland 11347 12066 12158 12612 12743 11495 10973 9798 8916 8777 9126 10280 11410 12731 12853 12417 12359 11819 11146 11298 11347


Table A.15 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Total public sector engineering (including Commonwealth)

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 2060 2240 2795 3043 3035 3275 3717 4776 4333 2969 3207 3098 3011 3771 3454 3163 2825 2685 2977 3425 3547

Gold Coast 280 399 341 729 605 552 1438 1132 814 841 674 614 604 813 993 1281 1192 1037 1012 1153 1142

Sunshine Coast 222 149 331 134 245 344 421 393 386 359 507 721 680 924 1036 1067 1004 956 999 1041 1056

West Moreton 41 29 128 215 159 390 260 160 130 154 185 147 223 354 334 286 235 194 368 595 793

Wide Bay/ Burnett 257 277 410 419 447 480 582 653 620 618 534 587 607 810 904 885 795 702 848 1033 1079

Darling Downs 145 165 266 341 260 163 308 368 380 445 687 838 1055 1174 1177 1030 781 739 799 860 852

South West 68 60 78 73 73 54 76 73 245 223 101 68 88 106 108 113 108 105 131 161 177

Fitzroy 437 509 759 513 371 322 494 639 591 907 705 596 795 1093 1091 958 772 788 927 1522 1846

Central West 46 38 42 58 55 45 48 64 68 62 46 50 55 72 78 83 80 76 92 111 123

Mackay 209 257 359 334 373 553 726 628 281 366 512 475 241 394 1181 2165 2988 3761 2796 610 379

Northern 306 318 354 568 396 362 700 472 677 989 492 555 680 934 1528 1584 1292 904 900 914 823

Far North 386 344 445 400 400 603 437 473 709 613 537 540 635 827 834 850 794 731 754 792 792

North West 121 110 136 135 103 61 63 113 109 139 104 124 137 187 214 227 218 208 206 203 199

Queensland 4577 4894 6443 6962 6521 7206 9269 9944 9343 8686 8290 8413 8811 11458 12933 13689 13084 12887 12808 12422 12808

Table A.16 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Private residential (other work done)

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 2293 2401 2561 2767 2643 2513 2634 2675 2911 2268 2254 2458 2589 2739 2820 2865 2845 2765 2718 2692 2656

Gold Coast 901 973 1057 1153 1110 1053 1101 893 845 794 863 919 954 1000 1022 1031 1018 985 963 949 932

Sunshine Coast 620 656 701 748 707 667 692 560 535 506 554 593 617 647 662 669 662 642 629 621 611

West Moreton 97 99 105 114 108 102 109 103 108 91 95 103 108 116 120 124 125 123 123 123 123

Wide Bay/ Burnett 284 298 323 357 349 337 354 325 333 281 290 309 321 336 343 345 339 327 318 312 306

Darling Downs 182 188 201 221 213 201 210 257 301 206 189 207 219 233 241 246 245 238 235 232 229

South West 17 17 18 20 19 18 19 23 27 19 19 21 22 25 27 28 29 30 30 31 31

Fitzroy 181 185 194 212 209 203 214 216 235 188 199 219 234 251 263 272 274 270 269 269 269

Central West 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 11 7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14

Mackay 150 155 170 192 192 189 202 169 166 164 192 212 224 237 245 248 246 239 233 230 225

Northern 234 241 259 286 280 273 291 239 230 222 248 268 282 299 308 314 312 304 299 296 292

Far North 325 329 349 376 366 351 365 294 279 265 290 308 319 334 342 345 340 329 322 316 310

North West 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13

Queensland 5298 5556 5953 6462 6210 5922 6204 5770 5989 5019 5206 5632 5906 6237 6414 6511 6460 6277 6164 6098 6011


Table A.17 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 $M) Total construction

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 12783 13536 15148 16308 19283 20590 19411 19814 19914 16562 16839 16809 15591 17494 18093 17707 16452 16392 17224 18163 18668

Gold Coast 4774 5092 4992 5572 5511 5553 6007 4538 3838 3590 4041 4729 4317 4911 5323 5651 5315 5159 5247 5510 5592

Sunshine Coast 2902 2941 2962 2704 2931 2950 2961 3533 2928 2270 3441 3230 3373 3749 3962 3994 3740 3668 3764 3891 3952

West Moreton 388 460 603 629 596 887 765 652 583 594 582 578 671 867 899 877 817 777 961 1212 1430

Wide Bay/ Burnett 1408 1672 1959 1954 1956 1751 1859 1686 1568 1616 1542 1643 1669 1915 2026 1986 1849 1738 1852 2026 2046

Darling Downs 1116 1429 1840 2540 2390 2207 2182 3095 3502 3952 4564 3523 4211 4091 3568 3182 2859 2688 2731 3511 3715

South West 136 144 170 264 655 698 420 1040 2903 3189 2434 1342 781 415 681 936 484 485 555 596 629

Fitzroy 1219 1532 2258 3215 2812 3693 3662 5411 13368 16096 16438 13070 13315 11494 10265 8869 10334 11010 11738 11267 11511

Central West 87 95 100 100 113 110 113 165 237 365 381 258 340 1060 1341 1644 529 278 319 356 325

Mackay 912 1119 1560 2023 2261 2656 2978 3918 3804 6687 7566 6970 4539 3297 4917 6816 8613 8246 6624 5742 5276

Northern 1361 1656 2104 2409 2408 2260 2507 2104 2323 2444 1956 1981 2827 3713 3511 3432 4046 4655 3551 2853 2590

Far North 1422 1686 1859 1960 2207 2167 1739 1691 1941 1712 1810 2069 1976 2281 2437 2538 2359 2298 2320 2310 2281

North West 203 203 289 525 533 567 489 735 931 1206 1449 646 1237 1594 1238 968 810 723 1391 1253 1459

Queensland 28709 31566 35842 40204 43655 46089 45093 48382 57839 60281 63044 56847 54847 56880 58262 58599 58207 58118 58276 58691 59474

Table A.18 Queensland regional construction value of work done: chain volume measure (2010-11 %) Total construction expenditure share of State total

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 44.5 42.9 42.3 40.6 44.2 44.7 43.0 41.0 34.4 27.5 26.7 29.6 28.4 30.8 31.1 30.2 28.3 28.2 29.6 30.9 31.4

Gold Coast 16.6 16.1 13.9 13.9 12.6 12.0 13.3 9.4 6.6 6.0 6.4 8.3 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.4

Sunshine Coast 10.1 9.3 8.3 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.6 7.3 5.1 3.8 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.6

West Moreton 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.4

Wide Bay/ Burnett 4.9 5.3 5.5 4.9 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.4

Darling Downs 3.9 4.5 5.1 6.3 5.5 4.8 4.8 6.4 6.1 6.6 7.2 6.2 7.7 7.2 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.7 6.0 6.2

South West 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 2.2 5.0 5.3 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1

Fitzroy 4.2 4.9 6.3 8.0 6.4 8.0 8.1 11.2 23.1 26.7 26.1 23.0 24.3 20.2 17.6 15.1 17.8 18.9 20.1 19.2 19.4

Central West 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

Mackay 3.2 3.5 4.4 5.0 5.2 5.8 6.6 8.1 6.6 11.1 12.0 12.3 8.3 5.8 8.4 11.6 14.8 14.2 11.4 9.8 8.9

Northern 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 5.6 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.5 5.2 6.5 6.0 5.9 7.0 8.0 6.1 4.9 4.4

Far North 5.0 5.3 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8

North West 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 2.4 2.1 2.5

Queensland 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


Table A.19 Queensland regional dwelling units commenced (number) Total residential dwelling units

Fiscal years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brisbane 19718 16862 16289 17126 19735 13600 17128 15700 14503 13755 18915 20927 22881 21392 21492 20685 21344 20654 20403 20283 20177

Gold Coast 7933 6540 6153 6836 6870 4493 4215 3001 2581 2608 3689 4670 5276 4931 4884 4660 4796 4600 4480 4405 4358

Sunshine Coast 5383 3751 3100 3326 3777 2789 3014 2557 1992 1766 2599 3176 3642 3502 3563 3440 3543 3411 3364 3354 3339

West Moreton 762 818 679 630 855 763 927 628 705 627 526 657 778 785 839 836 878 853 850 852 854

Wide Bay/ Burnett

3136 2910 3261 3121 3470 1973 2605 1674 1429 1230 1349 1756 1954 1644 1648 1595 1650 1544 1360 1290 1236

Darling Downs 1435 1650 1717 1499 1423 971 1933 1227 1316 1415 1779 2060 2255 1948 1926 1861 1942 1832 1623 1548 1489

South West 47 52 53 69 78 52 62 50 111 126 102 129 160 164 173 168 171 164 162 160 159

Fitzroy 1168 1066 1335 1867 1837 936 1283 1127 1874 2750 1693 1919 2143 2046 2077 2032 2133 2082 2096 2099 2107

Central West 12 24 14 18 20 26 17 23 31 16 12 18 23 24 25 24 24 24 24 24 24

Mackay 1173 1394 1379 1639 1572 1027 1496 1156 1615 2547 1602 1896 2019 1667 1624 1519 1526 1388 1185 1091 1017

Northern 1807 1862 1996 2099 2731 1339 2082 1284 1458 1734 1671 2034 2255 2003 1992 1917 1986 1890 1754 1727 1702

Far North 1829 2408 1945 2938 2942 1280 1594 890 885 728 938 1238 1421 1262 1265 1219 1251 1167 1037 979 936

North West 16 40 28 71 98 46 91 78 55 63 81 105 125 112 111 104 103 94 83 79 76

Queensland 44421 39377 37949 41240 45407 29294 36446 29393 28556 29364 34958 40585 44933 41481 41619 40061 41346 39702 38422 37891 37474



139 139 139

Appendix B

Additional quarterly tables


Table B.1 Private dwelling value of work done: new construction (including alterations and additions) – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/

Burnett Darling Downs

South West Fitzroy

Central West Mackay Northern

Far North

North West Queensland

Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1099 456 238 56 153 85 4 85 2 113 135 115 5 2545 163 2009.4 1156 465 240 60 160 101 5 84 2 126 140 118 5 2663 168 2010.1 1123 412 230 58 155 113 5 77 2 125 135 114 5 2555 162 2010.2 1246 424 256 65 168 137 5 85 2 138 146 123 6 2802 176 2010.3 1145 348 231 60 148 130 4 80 2 122 127 108 6 2510 153 2010.4 1134 301 224 56 137 123 4 83 2 113 115 96 5 2394 137 2011.1 1113 267 211 51 124 112 4 85 2 102 104 85 5 2267 121 2011.2 1056 226 186 43 108 96 4 82 2 90 94 76 5 2068 108 2011.3 1161 233 190 44 110 98 4 97 3 95 104 88 5 2231 125 2011.4 1073 207 169 39 96 89 5 100 2 91 102 90 4 2068 128 2012.1 1110 208 172 43 97 94 6 122 3 105 115 103 4 2183 147 2012.2 1117 209 174 50 99 102 8 143 3 125 125 115 4 2274 163 2012.3 1000 184 159 51 91 100 8 147 3 135 118 103 4 2103 146 2012.4 1046 191 167 56 98 113 11 179 3 167 126 102 4 2264 145 2013.1 978 183 152 52 92 112 12 194 3 179 118 89 5 2169 126 2013.2 965 183 149 49 90 112 13 220 3 194 117 80 5 2181 114 2013.3 972 196 150 37 79 105 11 214 2 189 104 69 5 2131 98 2013.4 1093 217 175 36 80 105 8 169 1 160 101 70 6 2221 100 2014.1 1236 224 189 40 90 114 6 137 1 136 109 72 6 2359 102 2014.2 1249 251 195 41 87 107 6 109 1 99 105 62 5 2317 88 2014.3 1229 273 202 44 93 108 6 116 2 101 112 76 6 2369 107 2014.4 1244 300 213 48 102 111 7 125 3 107 120 89 7 2476 127 2015.1 1278 328 226 52 111 116 8 134 3 112 130 102 8 2608 145 2015.2 1321 355 241 56 120 122 9 143 4 119 139 114 9 2751 162 2015.3 1280 357 239 56 120 120 9 142 4 117 139 117 9 2708 166 2015.4 1310 376 250 59 127 124 9 149 5 121 145 125 9 2810 178 2016.1 1332 391 258 62 131 127 10 154 5 124 150 132 10 2885 187 2016.2 1336 399 263 64 132 127 10 156 5 123 151 135 10 2911 192 Fiscal year 2010 4623 1758 965 238 636 436 19 331 8 501 557 471 22 10565 2011 4448 1143 852 211 516 461 16 331 8 428 440 365 21 9239 2012 4460 856 706 176 402 384 22 462 11 416 447 396 17 8755 2013 3989 741 628 207 371 438 45 740 12 675 478 374 18 8717 2014 4550 887 709 154 336 430 31 629 5 584 418 273 21 9027 2015 5072 1257 882 199 426 458 30 518 12 439 501 380 30 10204 2016 5257 1523 1010 241 511 498 38 601 19 485 585 508 39 11314


Table B.2 Private dwelling: other value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 605 253 160 25 81 48 4 49 1 46 67 84 2 1426 113 2009.4 677 283 178 28 91 54 5 55 2 52 75 94 2 1594 126 2010.1 668 280 175 28 90 53 5 54 2 51 74 92 2 1574 124 2010.2 684 285 179 28 92 55 5 55 2 53 76 94 2 1610 127 2010.3 641 267 167 27 86 52 5 52 2 50 71 88 2 1509 119 2010.4 631 262 164 26 85 51 5 51 2 50 70 86 2 1484 117 2011.1 667 184 115 24 75 72 6 54 3 35 49 60 2 1345 106 2011.2 736 181 114 26 79 83 7 59 3 35 49 59 2 1432 113 2011.3 809 194 123 28 86 92 8 65 4 38 53 64 2 1565 124 2011.4 713 199 125 26 80 75 7 57 3 39 54 65 2 1445 114 2012.1 729 234 148 28 87 71 6 59 3 46 64 77 2 1553 123 2012.2 660 219 139 26 80 63 6 53 2 44 60 72 2 1425 113 2012.3 603 195 124 23 72 58 5 49 2 39 54 65 2 1292 102 2012.4 582 200 127 23 72 54 5 48 2 41 56 67 2 1278 101 2013.1 533 194 124 22 67 47 4 44 2 40 55 65 2 1199 95 2013.2 549 205 131 23 70 47 4 47 2 44 58 69 2 1250 99 2013.3 536 207 133 23 69 45 4 46 2 45 59 70 2 1241 98 2013.4 548 210 135 23 71 46 4 48 2 47 60 71 2 1266 100 2014.1 579 221 142 24 74 49 5 51 2 50 64 74 2 1336 106 2014.2 592 224 144 25 75 50 5 53 2 51 65 75 2 1363 108 2014.3 610 230 148 26 77 51 5 54 2 53 67 77 2 1403 111 2014.4 617 231 149 26 78 52 5 55 2 53 67 77 2 1414 112 2015.1 612 228 147 26 77 51 5 55 2 53 67 76 2 1400 111 2015.2 619 230 149 26 77 52 5 55 2 53 67 77 2 1415 112 2015.3 624 231 149 26 78 53 5 56 2 54 68 77 2 1426 113 2015.4 652 240 155 27 81 55 6 59 2 56 71 80 2 1487 117 2016.1 632 233 151 26 78 54 5 57 2 55 69 78 2 1442 114 2016.2 680 250 162 29 84 58 6 62 2 59 74 83 3 1551 122 Fiscal year 2010 2634 1101 692 109 354 210 19 214 6 202 291 365 9 6204 2011 2675 893 560 103 325 257 23 216 9 169 239 294 7 5770 2012 2911 845 535 108 333 301 27 235 11 166 230 279 7 5989 2013 2268 794 506 91 281 206 19 188 7 164 222 265 7 5019 2014 2254 863 554 95 290 189 19 199 6 192 248 290 8 5206 2015 2458 919 593 103 309 207 21 219 7 212 268 308 9 5632 2016 2589 954 617 108 321 219 22 234 8 224 282 319 10 5906


Table B.3 Private dwelling: total value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1704 710 398 80 234 133 9 134 4 159 202 199 7 3971 114 2009.4 1833 748 419 87 251 155 10 139 4 177 215 212 8 4257 122 2010.1 1791 692 406 86 245 166 10 131 3 177 209 206 8 4129 118 2010.2 1929 710 435 93 260 192 10 140 3 191 222 217 9 4412 127 2010.3 1787 615 398 87 234 181 9 132 3 172 198 195 8 4019 115 2010.4 1765 562 388 83 222 175 8 134 4 163 185 182 8 3878 111 2011.1 1780 451 326 75 199 184 10 139 5 137 154 146 7 3612 104 2011.2 1792 407 300 69 187 179 11 142 5 125 142 135 6 3500 100 2011.3 1970 427 313 72 196 190 13 162 6 133 157 152 6 3796 109 2011.4 1785 405 295 65 177 164 11 158 5 130 156 155 6 3513 101 2012.1 1839 442 320 71 184 165 12 181 5 151 179 180 6 3736 107 2012.2 1777 428 313 76 179 165 13 196 5 168 186 187 6 3699 106 2012.3 1603 379 283 74 163 158 14 196 5 175 172 168 6 3395 97 2012.4 1628 391 294 79 169 167 16 227 5 208 182 169 6 3542 102 2013.1 1512 377 276 74 160 159 16 238 5 219 172 154 6 3368 97 2013.2 1514 388 280 71 160 160 18 266 4 238 175 149 7 3431 98 2013.3 1508 403 282 59 148 150 16 261 3 234 163 139 7 3372 97 2013.4 1641 427 310 59 151 150 13 217 3 207 161 141 8 3487 100 2014.1 1814 445 331 65 165 162 11 188 3 185 172 146 8 3695 106 2014.2 1841 475 340 66 163 156 11 162 3 150 170 137 8 3680 106 2014.3 1839 503 350 69 171 159 11 170 4 154 178 153 8 3771 108 2014.4 1861 532 362 73 180 163 12 180 4 160 188 166 9 3890 112 2015.1 1889 556 374 77 188 168 13 189 5 165 196 178 10 4008 115 2015.2 1940 585 389 82 197 174 14 199 6 172 206 191 11 4166 119 2015.3 1904 588 388 82 198 173 14 198 6 171 207 194 11 4134 119 2015.4 1962 617 405 86 208 179 15 207 7 178 216 206 12 4297 123 2016.1 1965 624 409 88 210 180 15 211 7 178 219 209 12 4327 124 2016.2 2016 649 424 92 216 185 16 218 7 182 225 218 13 4462 128 Fiscal year 2010 7257 2859 1657 347 990 645 38 545 14 703 848 835 31 16769 2011 7123 2035 1412 314 841 719 38 546 17 598 679 658 28 15009 2012 7371 1702 1240 284 735 685 49 697 22 582 678 675 25 14744 2013 6258 1535 1134 298 652 643 64 928 19 840 701 639 25 13736 2014 6804 1750 1262 249 626 619 50 827 11 776 666 563 29 14234 2015 7530 2176 1475 302 735 665 50 738 19 651 769 688 39 15836 2016 7846 2477 1627 349 832 717 60 835 27 709 866 827 48 17220


Table B.4 Private non-residential building value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 591 131 43 8 34 45 2 34 1 49 49 37 2 1024 80 2009.4 591 124 47 9 62 46 2 32 1 43 53 33 2 1045 81 2010.1 590 144 46 8 65 39 3 27 2 41 49 32 4 1051 82 2010.2 605 128 39 6 48 31 4 40 2 49 46 29 5 1031 80 2010.3 560 94 43 6 34 40 3 55 1 143 50 32 5 1064 83 2010.4 531 80 47 8 31 49 2 48 1 156 45 31 8 1036 81 2011.1 526 73 39 9 31 51 1 32 1 93 64 48 8 976 76 2011.2 730 88 30 9 32 54 7 31 1 56 86 60 8 1193 93 2011.3 747 80 47 7 26 50 9 35 1 39 63 40 6 1150 89 2011.4 693 88 63 8 23 44 6 44 1 48 90 39 3 1149 89 2012.1 622 97 95 8 21 41 4 86 1 62 91 38 5 1170 91 2012.2 560 76 83 7 15 34 7 113 1 70 56 29 5 1055 82 2012.3 615 60 57 5 12 34 10 132 1 77 34 23 4 1065 83 2012.4 618 86 45 5 15 39 11 134 1 83 32 19 3 1090 85 2013.1 612 112 40 6 16 60 7 168 0 84 51 20 10 1186 92 2013.2 601 108 32 7 31 81 5 192 3 71 62 20 17 1231 96 2013.3 505 93 284 6 44 75 5 162 5 52 54 16 15 1316 102 2013.4 500 91 350 5 37 59 5 104 4 44 42 19 24 1286 100 2014.1 567 142 251 5 36 53 4 64 2 59 43 30 28 1285 100 2014.2 630 370 133 4 36 53 5 39 1 67 42 34 17 1430 111 2014.3 678 408 61 4 31 55 7 26 0 59 34 27 6 1396 109 2014.4 684 298 95 4 32 58 8 37 1 54 33 24 5 1332 104 2015.1 627 217 149 4 34 57 7 54 2 52 36 23 10 1272 99 2015.2 616 198 195 5 38 60 6 71 3 56 42 26 15 1331 104 2015.3 610 184 186 7 38 59 6 79 2 58 47 32 15 1323 103 2015.4 647 182 190 9 41 62 6 92 3 64 55 41 16 1408 110 2016.1 652 182 183 9 41 62 6 90 3 64 56 42 15 1406 109 2016.2 673 188 181 10 42 63 6 91 3 65 58 45 15 1441 112 Fiscal year 2010 2377 527 175 31 210 162 11 132 5 181 197 131 13 4152 2011 2346 335 159 31 128 193 13 167 3 449 244 171 30 4269 2012 2621 341 289 30 85 168 26 278 3 218 300 146 19 4523 2013 2447 366 175 23 75 214 34 626 4 315 178 82 34 4572 2014 2202 696 1019 20 153 241 18 368 12 222 181 99 85 5317 2015 2605 1122 500 17 136 229 29 189 6 220 144 100 36 5332 2016 2582 736 741 35 163 247 25 351 10 250 216 161 61 5578


Table B.5 Public non-residential building value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 389 92 51 52 23 9 4 19 1 11 75 68 1 794 168 2009.4 380 116 46 22 47 24 5 27 0 21 119 43 4 854 181 2010.1 283 346 30 14 41 27 5 19 2 74 91 40 4 975 206 2010.2 255 461 22 12 33 27 6 20 3 95 66 38 8 1046 221 2010.3 384 451 27 14 29 29 9 29 5 90 47 40 13 1168 247 2010.4 566 218 32 11 31 23 8 30 6 52 34 36 10 1058 224 2011.1 599 32 28 9 37 20 4 42 11 26 33 34 6 881 186 2011.2 677 28 18 5 19 10 1 27 8 12 14 105 2 926 196 2011.3 564 44 15 4 9 6 0 13 3 5 6 109 2 781 165 2011.4 516 60 24 5 9 12 0 19 2 7 17 100 7 778 165 2012.1 383 65 26 6 15 16 1 28 1 9 94 66 9 720 152 2012.2 243 122 20 7 19 14 4 36 4 18 174 41 11 712 151 2012.3 127 135 10 4 10 6 4 27 5 26 116 33 17 521 110 2012.4 105 91 18 9 7 2 5 80 4 52 181 33 16 603 128 2013.1 157 35 21 8 7 2 5 102 2 48 161 23 8 580 123 2013.2 249 14 18 5 11 4 5 94 1 34 95 15 4 551 117 2013.3 341 13 18 9 17 7 5 80 0 24 38 12 3 568 120 2013.4 253 34 32 14 18 13 5 48 0 18 21 15 3 473 100 2014.1 190 39 34 11 19 13 3 31 1 13 24 16 2 394 83 2014.2 223 51 43 6 27 26 1 25 1 8 18 17 1 447 95 2014.3 242 47 37 3 31 41 0 22 2 4 13 18 1 461 97 2014.4 236 39 47 4 28 38 1 21 2 7 17 23 2 464 98 2015.1 200 35 70 5 21 27 2 18 1 12 23 27 3 444 94 2015.2 200 38 95 7 18 21 2 19 1 16 28 31 4 480 102 2015.3 220 35 53 9 19 18 3 28 1 14 23 23 3 448 95 2015.4 253 34 33 11 21 17 3 38 1 13 20 16 2 460 97 2016.1 241 34 32 10 20 16 3 34 1 12 20 16 2 441 93 2016.2 240 36 32 11 20 17 3 32 1 12 20 17 2 442 93 Fiscal year 2010 1307 1015 149 100 143 88 20 84 6 200 350 190 16 3669 2011 2225 729 104 39 117 83 22 127 31 181 128 215 31 4033 2012 1706 291 85 22 51 48 6 96 10 39 292 317 29 2990 2013 639 275 66 27 36 14 19 303 12 161 553 104 45 2254 2014 1007 137 126 40 81 59 15 184 2 62 100 60 9 1882 2015 878 158 249 19 99 127 5 80 6 39 81 99 9 1849 2016 954 139 150 41 79 69 12 132 3 51 83 73 7 1791


Table B.6 Total non-residential building value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 980 223 93 60 57 54 6 52 1 60 124 105 3 1818 103 2009.4 971 240 93 31 109 71 7 59 1 64 173 76 6 1899 108 2010.1 873 490 76 22 106 67 8 46 3 114 140 73 8 2027 115 2010.2 860 589 61 18 80 58 10 59 5 143 111 68 13 2076 118 2010.3 944 545 70 19 63 69 12 85 6 234 97 72 18 2232 127 2010.4 1097 298 79 19 62 72 10 77 7 209 79 68 18 2095 119 2011.1 1124 106 66 18 69 71 6 74 12 119 97 82 14 1857 106 2011.2 1406 116 48 14 51 64 8 58 8 69 100 166 10 2119 121 2011.3 1310 124 62 11 35 55 10 48 4 44 70 149 8 1931 110 2011.4 1208 148 87 12 32 56 6 63 2 54 107 140 10 1927 110 2012.1 1005 162 121 14 35 57 6 114 2 70 184 104 14 1889 107 2012.2 803 198 103 14 33 48 10 149 5 88 230 70 16 1766 100 2012.3 743 194 66 9 23 40 14 159 6 103 150 56 21 1586 90 2012.4 723 177 63 13 22 41 16 215 5 135 213 52 18 1692 96 2013.1 769 148 61 15 24 62 13 270 2 132 211 43 18 1766 100 2013.2 850 122 50 13 43 85 11 286 3 105 157 35 21 1782 101 2013.3 846 107 303 15 61 82 10 242 5 75 92 28 18 1884 107 2013.4 753 125 382 19 55 72 9 152 4 62 64 35 27 1759 100 2014.1 757 181 285 16 55 66 7 94 3 72 67 46 30 1680 96 2014.2 853 421 176 10 62 80 6 64 2 74 59 50 19 1877 107 2014.3 920 455 98 6 63 95 8 48 2 63 47 45 7 1856 106 2014.4 921 337 142 7 61 96 9 57 3 61 50 47 6 1797 102 2015.1 827 252 219 10 55 84 9 72 3 64 59 50 13 1717 98 2015.2 816 236 291 12 57 81 9 90 4 71 69 57 19 1811 103 2015.3 830 219 239 15 57 77 9 106 3 71 70 55 18 1771 101 2015.4 900 216 223 20 62 79 9 130 3 76 75 57 17 1869 106 2016.1 893 216 215 20 61 79 9 124 3 76 75 59 17 1847 105 2016.2 913 223 213 21 62 80 9 123 3 77 78 63 17 1883 107 Fiscal year 2010 3684 1542 324 131 353 250 30 216 10 381 547 321 30 7820 2011 4571 1065 264 70 245 276 35 294 34 630 372 386 60 8302 2012 4327 632 373 52 136 216 32 374 13 256 591 463 48 7513 2013 3085 641 241 49 111 228 53 929 16 476 731 186 78 6826 2014 3209 833 1146 61 233 300 33 552 14 284 282 160 93 7199 2015 3483 1280 750 35 235 356 34 268 12 259 225 199 45 7180 2016 3536 875 891 76 242 315 37 483 13 301 299 233 68 7368


Table B.7 Public sector engineering value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 562 110 64 40 106 46 15 89 11 133 63 59 11 1312 79 2009.4 553 102 63 42 101 50 16 94 11 127 66 56 9 1290 78 2010.1 525 92 60 36 99 50 13 94 10 118 60 49 11 1217 73 2010.2 594 101 69 37 115 60 12 112 10 130 66 53 14 1373 83 2010.3 507 83 60 29 102 55 9 101 7 109 55 43 15 1174 71 2010.4 559 89 68 30 117 65 8 119 7 119 59 45 20 1303 79 2011.1 581 94 68 28 119 67 12 117 8 100 63 51 19 1327 80 2011.2 681 115 78 31 140 79 20 132 10 96 76 68 21 1548 93 2011.3 549 97 62 24 113 65 24 104 9 64 65 62 16 1254 76 2011.4 671 127 76 28 142 82 44 125 13 66 85 88 19 1564 94 2012.1 640 131 74 26 141 82 63 120 14 53 88 98 18 1549 93 2012.2 711 161 86 29 167 98 108 137 19 52 108 131 19 1825 110 2012.3 556 145 73 23 144 86 135 114 18 37 97 127 16 1572 95 2012.4 598 132 74 36 144 111 15 160 10 66 105 108 27 1584 96 2013.1 566 134 70 33 140 109 21 150 10 52 106 119 24 1535 93 2013.2 598 153 76 34 153 121 33 159 13 47 122 147 25 1681 101 2013.3 530 150 70 30 144 115 45 144 13 36 120 156 22 1575 95 2013.4 604 147 112 45 124 178 13 133 9 64 91 112 25 1658 100 2014.1 544 127 103 37 101 168 14 117 11 136 83 102 23 1566 94 2014.2 499 110 96 32 81 162 13 105 10 207 79 96 22 1510 91 2014.3 500 99 96 32 68 165 13 100 10 236 78 98 22 1520 92 2014.4 542 122 119 29 140 150 16 128 10 83 119 103 29 1587 96 2015.1 574 119 126 32 140 182 17 136 11 67 129 113 31 1676 101 2015.2 578 113 129 35 136 212 17 142 12 46 135 120 31 1705 103 2015.3 505 108 123 36 126 236 17 141 12 44 135 121 30 1632 98 2015.4 505 115 131 42 131 259 18 158 13 46 147 136 32 1734 105 2016.1 489 114 130 48 129 242 20 166 13 46 144 141 32 1713 103 2016.2 525 125 144 56 138 246 21 184 15 49 153 155 34 1846 111 Fiscal year 2010 2235 405 256 156 422 206 56 388 42 509 255 217 45 5192 2011 2328 381 273 119 478 265 49 469 33 423 252 206 76 5352 2012 2571 515 298 107 563 328 239 486 56 235 345 378 72 6192 2013 2318 564 292 126 581 428 204 583 51 202 430 501 92 6372 2014 2177 534 380 143 451 623 86 499 43 444 372 465 93 6310 2015 2194 453 470 128 485 709 62 506 44 432 460 434 113 6489 2016 2024 462 528 182 524 984 76 649 52 185 579 553 127 6924


Table B.8 Private sector engineering value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 1731 333 146 32 19 292 149 611 12 281 172 85 97 3961 42 2009.4 1574 315 138 31 20 270 112 562 11 279 190 80 87 3667 39 2010.1 1568 330 158 35 22 290 19 646 13 323 226 92 86 3809 41 2010.2 1187 205 267 29 17 215 16 672 11 485 174 77 113 3467 37 2010.3 1248 224 341 32 14 337 17 782 12 570 175 84 135 3971 42 2010.4 1274 236 359 34 15 354 18 829 12 599 154 89 130 4102 44 2011.1 1465 272 412 39 17 531 291 947 27 634 177 102 106 5020 54 2011.2 1581 302 456 43 19 594 589 1501 30 441 204 113 194 6067 65 2011.3 1356 243 367 34 26 486 560 2301 24 351 166 100 174 6188 66 2011.4 1400 248 318 35 30 536 552 3365 24 388 169 104 178 7348 78 2012.1 1512 263 170 37 32 617 701 2763 40 934 179 111 188 7549 80 2012.2 1321 227 158 32 41 629 770 3373 55 1051 155 96 237 8144 87 2012.3 1381 210 149 30 42 625 654 3393 60 1170 143 89 242 8188 87 2012.4 1149 203 144 29 63 633 705 3599 67 1242 138 104 269 8344 89 2013.1 1222 228 162 32 99 734 813 3436 78 1437 154 96 261 8751 93 2013.2 1136 208 148 29 67 658 696 3206 73 1317 140 88 237 8004 85 2013.3 1277 249 177 35 53 787 622 3872 88 1603 168 105 362 9399 100 2013.4 1244 243 173 34 64 760 689 3837 86 1611 163 100 377 9380 100 2014.1 1116 223 159 31 62 770 560 3667 79 1466 149 187 294 8764 93 2014.2 990 206 144 28 51 700 394 3161 58 1375 136 219 199 7660 82 2014.3 1050 243 159 34 35 505 420 2976 63 1371 154 297 64 7370 79 2014.4 1007 232 152 32 55 449 315 3030 49 1411 146 242 142 7261 77 2015.1 800 182 119 25 51 404 246 2879 38 1381 114 108 128 6475 69 2015.2 720 160 104 22 44 432 215 2661 33 1462 99 95 112 6160 66 2015.3 617 137 91 19 33 579 183 2797 28 1115 85 82 242 6009 64 2015.4 535 124 83 17 19 576 165 3060 26 821 295 94 262 6076 65 2016.1 499 119 81 15 6 527 147 2855 23 719 341 90 233 5654 60 2016.2 498 123 74 15 6 509 114 2623 171 683 345 85 254 5500 59 Fiscal year 2010 6061 1183 708 128 77 1067 295 2491 47 1367 763 335 382 14904 2011 5568 1035 1567 147 64 1815 916 4059 81 2243 710 388 565 19160 2012 5589 981 1013 139 128 2269 2583 11802 144 2724 669 411 778 29229 2013 4888 849 603 119 272 2650 2868 13634 279 5166 575 377 1008 33287 2014 4627 921 652 128 229 3018 2265 14538 312 6055 617 611 1231 35203 2015 3577 817 534 112 184 1791 1195 11547 183 5624 513 741 446 27266 2016 2148 502 329 65 65 2191 608 11335 248 3339 1066 350 991 23239


Table B.9 Total engineering value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 2294 443 210 73 125 337 164 701 23 414 236 145 108 5272 48 2009.4 2127 416 200 73 121 320 128 655 23 406 256 136 96 4957 45 2010.1 2093 423 218 71 121 341 31 740 22 441 286 141 96 5026 46 2010.2 1781 306 336 67 132 275 28 783 20 615 239 130 127 4840 44 2010.3 1755 307 401 61 116 392 26 883 19 679 229 127 150 5145 47 2010.4 1833 325 426 63 131 419 26 948 19 718 213 133 150 5405 49 2011.1 2046 367 479 67 136 598 303 1064 35 734 239 153 125 6347 57 2011.2 2262 417 534 74 158 673 610 1633 40 536 281 181 215 7615 69 2011.3 1905 340 428 58 140 551 584 2405 33 415 231 162 190 7442 67 2011.4 2071 374 394 63 172 619 596 3490 37 453 254 192 196 8912 81 2012.1 2153 394 244 63 173 699 764 2883 55 987 267 209 206 9097 82 2012.2 2031 388 243 61 208 728 878 3510 74 1103 263 226 257 9970 90 2012.3 1937 355 222 53 186 711 789 3507 78 1207 240 216 257 9760 88 2012.4 1747 335 218 65 207 744 719 3759 77 1307 242 213 296 9929 90 2013.1 1788 361 232 65 239 843 834 3586 89 1489 260 215 285 10285 93 2013.2 1734 361 223 63 221 779 729 3365 86 1365 262 235 262 9685 88 2013.3 1807 399 247 65 197 903 667 4017 101 1640 288 261 384 10974 99 2013.4 1848 390 285 78 188 937 702 3970 95 1676 254 212 402 11038 100 2014.1 1660 350 261 68 163 938 574 3784 90 1602 233 288 318 10330 94 2014.2 1489 316 239 60 131 862 407 3266 68 1581 215 316 221 9170 83 2014.3 1551 343 255 66 103 670 433 3076 73 1607 232 395 87 8890 81 2014.4 1549 353 270 61 196 599 330 3158 59 1494 265 345 171 8848 80 2015.1 1374 301 245 57 191 586 262 3015 50 1448 242 221 159 8151 74 2015.2 1298 273 233 56 180 644 232 2804 45 1507 234 215 144 7865 71 2015.3 1123 245 214 54 159 815 200 2938 40 1158 220 203 272 7641 69 2015.4 1039 239 214 59 150 835 183 3218 38 868 442 231 293 7809 71 2016.1 987 234 211 62 136 769 166 3020 36 765 485 230 265 7366 67 2016.2 1023 247 218 71 144 755 135 2807 186 732 499 239 288 7346 67 Fiscal year 2010 8295 1588 964 284 499 1274 351 2879 88 1876 1018 552 427 20096 2011 7897 1416 1840 266 542 2081 965 4528 114 2667 962 594 641 24512 2012 8160 1496 1311 245 692 2597 2822 12288 200 2958 1014 789 849 35421 2013 7206 1412 895 246 852 3078 3072 14217 329 5368 1005 878 1100 39659 2014 6804 1455 1032 272 680 3640 2351 15037 355 6499 989 1076 1324 41513 2015 5771 1270 1003 240 669 2500 1258 12053 227 6056 973 1175 559 33754 2016 4173 964 857 246 589 3175 684 11984 300 3524 1645 903 1118 30163


Table B.10 Public dwelling value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 28 5 4 1 4 2 0 6 0 0 9 4 1 65 240 2009.4 40 2 4 1 2 2 0 5 0 5 16 6 0 84 312 2010.1 39 4 3 1 4 4 0 5 0 5 27 5 0 97 360 2010.2 68 5 5 1 6 6 0 7 0 6 42 15 0 163 605 2010.3 68 9 5 1 15 9 0 14 0 4 40 18 2 186 689 2010.4 69 6 5 1 18 6 0 13 0 6 23 16 1 164 609 2011.1 50 4 4 1 15 4 0 11 0 7 16 10 1 123 455 2011.2 36 3 3 1 11 1 0 5 0 6 12 8 2 87 323 2011.3 17 2 2 1 3 1 0 1 0 5 15 6 3 56 207 2011.4 16 3 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 13 5 3 46 171 2012.1 14 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 1 1 7 2 1 32 120 2012.2 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 5 1 1 27 99 2012.3 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 1 2 2 0 21 79 2012.4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 1 1 3 1 15 57 2013.1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 1 2 1 12 45 2013.2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 2 2 0 12 44 2013.3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 2 4 3 1 21 77 2013.4 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 7 0 2 5 3 1 27 100 2014.1 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 6 0 2 6 3 1 31 114 2014.2 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 74 2014.3 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 18 67 2014.4 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 18 67 2015.1 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 73 2015.2 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 20 76 2015.3 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 21 79 2015.4 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 22 83 2016.1 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 4 2 1 22 82 2016.2 10 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 0 2 6 3 1 30 112 Fiscal year 2010 175 17 17 4 16 13 1 22 1 17 94 30 1 408 2011 223 22 16 3 59 20 1 43 1 24 91 52 6 559 2012 56 8 4 2 5 4 0 9 2 8 40 14 9 160 2013 12 2 0 1 1 2 0 21 0 3 6 8 2 60 2014 23 3 0 1 2 5 1 22 0 6 20 11 3 98 2015 26 3 2 1 4 2 0 11 0 4 14 7 2 76 2016 32 4 2 1 4 3 0 14 0 5 18 9 3 96


Table B.11 Total construction: value of work done – 2011-12 $ million

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 5006 1382 705 214 420 526 179 892 28 633 570 452 119 11126 68 2009.4 4971 1407 716 192 482 548 144 858 28 652 660 430 109 11197 69 2010.1 4796 1609 702 179 477 577 49 922 29 737 663 426 112 11278 69 2010.2 4639 1609 838 179 479 531 48 990 29 955 615 431 149 11491 70 2010.3 4554 1476 874 168 427 651 47 1113 29 1089 564 412 177 11581 71 2010.4 4764 1192 899 166 433 671 44 1172 30 1095 499 399 177 11542 71 2011.1 5000 928 876 161 418 856 319 1288 52 997 505 391 147 11938 73 2011.2 5496 942 885 157 407 917 630 1838 54 736 535 489 234 13321 82 2011.3 5202 893 805 142 373 797 607 2617 44 596 472 469 207 13224 81 2011.4 5081 930 777 141 383 840 613 3712 45 638 531 492 216 14398 88 2012.1 5011 999 686 149 392 923 782 3180 63 1210 637 495 227 14755 90 2012.2 4620 1016 660 151 420 941 901 3859 85 1360 683 485 280 15462 95 2012.3 4290 929 571 136 372 910 817 3869 90 1486 564 443 285 14762 91 2012.4 4101 903 576 158 398 953 751 4207 87 1651 638 436 321 15178 93 2013.1 4071 886 569 153 422 1064 863 4098 95 1841 646 413 310 15431 95 2013.2 4100 871 553 147 424 1025 758 3922 93 1709 596 421 291 14910 91 2013.3 4164 909 832 139 406 1136 694 4525 110 1950 546 431 409 16251 100 2013.4 4247 943 977 157 394 1161 725 4346 103 1946 484 391 437 16311 100 2014.1 4239 977 877 149 384 1168 592 4073 96 1862 478 484 356 15735 96 2014.2 4189 1212 755 137 357 1099 424 3495 73 1807 447 505 248 14747 90 2014.3 4316 1302 703 142 337 925 452 3297 79 1825 460 594 103 14535 89 2014.4 4336 1223 775 141 437 859 351 3398 66 1715 506 559 187 14553 89 2015.1 4097 1110 838 144 434 839 284 3279 58 1678 501 451 182 13896 85 2015.2 4061 1094 913 150 435 900 254 3096 55 1752 514 464 174 13862 85 2015.3 3864 1052 842 152 415 1066 223 3246 50 1402 500 454 301 13567 83 2015.4 3908 1072 843 165 421 1094 207 3559 48 1123 737 495 323 13997 86 2016.1 3852 1075 836 171 407 1029 191 3359 46 1020 783 500 294 13562 83 2016.2 3963 1120 856 184 424 1021 161 3152 197 994 808 523 318 13721 84 Fiscal year 2010 19411 6007 2961 765 1859 2182 420 3662 113 2978 2507 1739 489 45093 2011 19814 4538 3533 652 1686 3095 1040 5411 165 3918 2104 1691 735 48382 2012 19914 3838 2928 583 1568 3502 2903 13368 237 3804 2323 1941 931 57839 2013 16562 3590 2270 594 1616 3952 3189 16096 365 6687 2444 1712 1206 60281 2014 16839 4041 3441 582 1542 4564 2434 16438 381 7566 1956 1810 1449 63044 2015 16810 4729 3230 578 1643 3522 1342 13070 258 6970 1981 2069 646 56847 2016 15587 4319 3377 672 1667 4210 782 13316 340 4538 2828 1973 1238 54847


Table B.12 Total dwelling units commenced (number)

Brisbane Gold

coast Sunshine

Coast West

Moreton Wide Bay/


South West Fitzroy


Far North


Queensland December

2013 = 100

2009.3 3610 1108 712 201 530 289 14 254 6 283 375 339 14 7732 85 2009.4 4131 1178 785 228 614 371 15 297 6 336 452 387 17 8814 96 2010.1 4124 1092 754 225 620 415 15 303 5 347 476 385 20 8781 96 2010.2 5226 1286 920 283 795 590 19 391 5 456 635 486 28 11119 122 2010.3 3900 901 673 196 543 401 14 289 4 326 429 321 20 8018 88 2010.4 3566 773 604 166 454 335 12 261 4 286 356 259 18 7095 78 2011.1 4008 816 665 173 467 343 13 291 5 308 362 257 20 7729 84 2011.2 3499 669 570 140 373 273 11 251 5 258 286 198 17 6551 72 2011.3 4044 759 631 170 423 328 16 336 6 330 348 234 19 7644 84 2011.4 3325 613 497 147 341 280 16 320 6 301 301 196 14 6358 70 2012.1 3720 674 533 172 374 325 23 415 7 374 355 223 15 7210 79 2012.2 3730 664 512 181 368 338 29 482 8 415 375 228 14 7344 80 2012.3 3422 619 462 164 329 320 27 493 6 433 364 202 14 6855 75 2012.4 3553 653 472 167 334 343 30 571 6 510 400 202 15 7255 79 2013.1 3548 662 463 164 325 354 31 636 5 579 423 195 15 7400 81 2013.2 3679 697 472 168 329 378 34 735 4 681 464 195 17 7854 86 2013.3 3963 757 518 160 335 399 32 648 4 603 457 206 18 8098 89 2013.4 4651 894 618 166 371 457 33 622 4 582 491 238 21 9148 100 2014.1 4869 943 658 153 367 468 30 533 4 501 470 245 21 9263 101 2014.2 4572 892 628 127 326 430 25 409 3 387 404 227 20 8449 92 2014.3 4974 1003 701 143 369 473 28 448 3 428 450 258 22 9301 102 2014.4 5211 1087 752 154 403 501 30 472 4 456 483 282 24 9860 108 2015.1 5440 1174 805 166 438 530 32 496 4 485 516 308 26 10420 114 2015.2 5674 1266 861 178 476 559 35 520 5 514 551 336 28 11003 120 2015.3 5716 1286 878 183 482 563 36 527 5 514 558 342 29 11120 122 2015.4 5874 1332 913 192 497 579 39 544 5 525 575 356 31 11462 125 2016.1 5794 1325 911 193 493 571 39 540 6 515 569 356 31 11342 124 2016.2 5606 1293 892 191 479 553 39 525 6 495 553 348 31 11009 120 Fiscal year 2010 17090 4664 3171 936 2558 1664 63 1245 21 1422 1937 1597 78 36446 2011 14973 3159 2512 674 1837 1353 50 1092 19 1178 1433 1035 76 29393 2012 14818 2710 2174 670 1505 1272 84 1553 28 1420 1380 880 62 28556 2013 14203 2631 1870 663 1317 1396 122 2435 21 2203 1650 793 60 29364 2014 18054 3485 2421 606 1399 1754 119 2212 14 2075 1822 917 79 34958 2015 21299 4530 3120 641 1687 2063 125 1936 17 1883 2001 1184 101 40585 2016 22990 5236 3595 759 1950 2265 153 2136 22 2049 2254 1402 121 44933

Queensland region construction supply and demand analysis ......2.2 The Australian economic outlook...

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