Quarterly System Status Briefing - eskom.co.za · Overview of Eskom’s electricity value chain...
Transcript of Quarterly System Status Briefing - eskom.co.za · Overview of Eskom’s electricity value chain...
Quarterly System Status Briefing
Matshela Koko
Interim Group Chief Executive
24 January 2017
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
Contents
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
3
Overview of Eskom’s electricity value chain
Industry, commercial
and farming
Mining, Metros and large industry
Generation • Stable, no load
shedding, excess
capacity
Transmission • Stable, no major
incidents
Distribution
• Stable with no
major faults in
Eskom networks
• Failing municipal
distribution
infrastructure
Total
Distribution
Customers
• 5,689 million
Supply to municipalities
and residential
4
Eskom’s performance and new build programme is delivering
results with excess capacity (1/2)
Performance summary
Eskom has significantly improved its operational performance year-to-date
• Energy availability has improved from 70.3 % at the end of Quarter 3 2016 to 77.3 % for the same period this year
• From this improvement, 3 103 MW has been added to the national grid
Since the build programme started, 8 030 MW has been added to the grid
• In the next 6 years, Eskom will add a further 9 103 MW capacity through the new build programme
Peak reduction due to Demand Side Management (DSM) is 123 MW against a target of 100 MW
5
Eskom’s performance and new build programme is delivering
results with excess capacity (2/2)
Performance summary
The country energy demand is 2 252 GWh (1 %) lower than the same period last year
Eskom can meet any increase in demand until 2021 due to operational surplus capacity which currently averages 5 600 MW at peak this financial year
Eskom has increased cross border sales by 25% and aims to further increase domestic and export sales
The availability of operational surplus capacity of 5 600 MW is a game changer
Eskom continues to focus efforts on increasing electricity demand and ensuring sustainable revenue collection
6
Surplus capacity on average every day during the peak for this
financial year is the size of Matla Power Station (3 600 MW)
Surplus capacity over peak (5 600 MW) – operating reserve (2 000 MW) = 3 600 MW
Reserve margin is 19 %
7
Eskom has surplus energy even without Eskom OCGTs
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
9
Operational highlights
Description
Transmission
• In the past nine months, Eskom has connected 162 104 new customers to the grid, with 150 747 customers energized and already using electricity
• Smart meter implementation program for Sandton, Midrand and Soweto is ahead of schedule
• Energy Losses were better than the industry benchmark of 8% at 6.5 %
Generation
• Average excess capacity of 5 600 MW during peak demand
Highlights
• Zero major incidents year-to-date
• Low number of interruptions, valued at 21 against a target of 26 year-to-date
• 222 km of new transmission lines have been built year-to-date
Distribution
New Build
• 1 800 MVAs of transformer capacity have been commissioned ahead of schedule on 27 October 2016
• Year-to-date, Ingula Units 4, 2 and 1 have added 999 MW to the grid
• Medupi Unit 5 and Kusile Unit 1 (1 594 MW) were synchronised but are not commercially operational
Generation
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
11
Generation sustains excellent performance from April to
December 2016
Description
Plant
performance
• Availability is 77.3 % at the end of Quarter 3, compared to 70.3 % last year for the same period
• This translates to an additional 3 103 MW available on the grid during this period
Maintenance
• Year-to-date planned maintenance is at 12.0 % compared to the target of 10 %
• Year-to-date breakdowns have reduced to 10.7 % from 16.2 % for the same period last year
Highlights
• Eskom currently has an excess of capacity, averaging
5 600 MW1 during peak demand
• Eskom sold 11.7 TWh year-to-date to neighbouring countries compared to 9.4 TWh for the same period last year, which is an increase of 25 %
Excess capacity
1 – Average excess available after meeting peak demand with current commercially operational plant
12
Improvements in fleet performance has a positive impact on
costs
Description
Open Cycle
GasTurbine
usage
• Eskom OCGT load factor is 0.15 % compared to the target of 2 %
• Eskom has not run its OCGTs to meet demand since October 2016
• Savings against budget year-to-date as of end December is just under R 2 billion
Highlights
• Improvement in Generation plant availability has re-enabled Eskom to dispatch the least cost stations ahead of the more expensive stations
• Year end projections is that economic dispatch will result in a cost saving of R 238 million
Economic
dispatch
13
• Generation has turned around its performance from 70.3 % EAF in December 2015 to 77.3 % EAF in
December 2016, resulting in an extra 3103 MW available to the grid
Eskom’s performance significantly improved resulting in higher
plant availability and surplus capacity
EAF performance, December 2000 to December 2016
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
De
c-1
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Ju
n-1
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EA
F (
%)
De
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Ju
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c-1
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70,3 % in Dec-15
Ju
n-1
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De
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Ju
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Jun-1
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Jun-0
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93,4 % in Jul-01
Ju
n-0
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c-0
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Performance
turnaround
Key insights
EAF
77,3 % in Dec-16
New leadership
14
Generation improved EAF reaching 77.3 %2 in December YTD
and continues to focus on maintenance
Performance over the past nine months
Percentage (%)
1 - Includes breakdowns and other non plant losses
2 – EAF excluding Duvha 3 is 78.4 %
80,7 78,7
12,9 13,2 9,1 9,7
May-16
11,5
Aug-16
10,0
78,2
9,6 9,8
Apr-16
12,9 10,1
Jul-16 Jun-16
74,2 76,7
11,8
80,7
10,2
Nov-16 Dec-16 Oct-16
13,3 13,8 12,9
75,3
12,6
75,6
11,4
Sep-16
74,5
10,5
Available energy Breakdowns1 Planned maintenance
15
OCGT usage has decreased as a result of improved
Generation availability
OCGT performance
Insights
• Usage of
OCGT’s in July,
September,
November and
December for
commissioning
and testing
purposes only
• In October,
OCGTs were
used to meet
demand before
peak due to a
tight system
• OCGT load
factor for the
Quarter 2 was
0.06% and for
Quarter 3 was
0.11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110100,1
Jan-16
0,0
Jul-16 Aug-16
1,7 4,8
Apr-16 Mar-16
6,6
Feb-16
21,2
Jun-16
5,0
May-16
6,3
Dec-16
0,7
Nov-16
2,6
Oct-16
2,2 1,6
Sep-16
Load
Factor
(%) 5.6 1.3 0.4 0.4
Energy Send Out (GWh)
0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
Our maintenance planning ensures that the system
remains sustainable and healthy
• Prognosis from the Tetris Maintenance Plan confirms that the
system will remain adequate until 2021
• The Tetris maintenance planning is based on an operating reserve of
2 000 MW and a maintenance budget of 11 500 MW for the rest of
the financial year
• We expect minimal use of Eskom OCGTs to manage the system
for the rest of the financial year
Prognosis from Tetris indicates there will be no load shedding at
least until the end of the financial year
Tetris V4.27
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Jan Feb Mar
2017
Available Capacity Operating Reserves PCLF UCLF Peak Demand Installed Capacity
Summer UCLF
6500 MW UCLF
PCLF
Operating Reserve
Available Capacity
Installed Capacity is the total generating capacity from Eskom’s combined fleet Plant Breakdowns: from the available capacity we
subtract the anticipated breakdowns
Planned Maintenance: from this we also need to subtract the planned maintenance
Available Capacity: the capacity available to meet the demand we now have to superimpose the demand forecast for the year to compare it with the this available capacity.
Operating Reserve: 2000 MW buffer to cater for sudden Increase in load or if generating units are lost
Peak Demand: the forecasted demand does not exceed the available capacity and we still have the 2000 MW of operating reserve as a buffer. Therefore the prognosis is no load shedding for the remainder of the year
17
Planned Maintenance – January 2017
Tetris V4.27 18
1
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
HCB
Komati 3 Drakensberg 2 Hendrina 10
Kriel 1
Lethabo 6
Komati 7 Camden 1
Matimba 2 Grootvlei 2
Tutuka 4
Matla 2
Ankerlig 7 Gourikwa 2
Majuba 1
Kendal 3
Kendal 5
Ankerlig 2
Duvha 4
Lethabo 5 Komati 2
Operating Reserve
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 26-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
Jan
2017
Planned Maintenance – February to March 2017
Tetris V4.27 19
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
2
Komati 3Drakensberg 2
Hendrina 10Kriel 1
Lethabo 6
Komati 7Camden 1
Matimba 2
Grootvlei 2Palmiet 2
Tutuka 4
Ankerlig 5
Matla 2
Ankerlig 7Palmiet 1
Matla 6
Hendrina 8
Gourikwa 2
Majuba 1Gourikwa 3
Majuba 2
Arnot 5
Kendal 3
Tutuka 2Acacia 2
Port Rex 2 Port Rex 3
Acacia 3
Operating Reserve
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
01
-Fe
b
03
-Fe
b
05
-Fe
b
07
-Fe
b
09
-Fe
b
11
-Fe
b
13
-Fe
b
15
-Fe
b
17
-Fe
b
19
-Fe
b
21
-Fe
b
23
-Fe
b
25
-Fe
b
27
-Fe
b
01
-Mar
03
-Mar
05
-Mar
07
-Mar
09
-Mar
11
-Mar
13
-Mar
15
-Mar
17
-Mar
19
-Mar
21
-Mar
23
-Mar
25
-Mar
27
-Mar
29
-Mar
31
-Mar
Feb Mar
2017
Surplus Capacity (MW)
Average monthly surplus Capacity
The average Surplus Capacity from April to December has
been above 5 600 MW
Surplus Capacity Actual Average Demand
• There is an average of
above 5 600 MW of
surplus capacity
• The average available
surplus capacity is
enough to cover the
capacity supplied by
renewables and the
required reserve margin
Insights
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20
Insights into YTD sales SAPP Sales (GWh)
Breakdown of Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) Sales per customer
With Eskom’s excess capacity, we have increased our exports
by 25 %
• Eskom’s firm cross border
sales to end-use customers are
stable at ~6600GWh,
increasing by 123GWh
• The firm and non-firm sales to
utilities has increased by ~
2218GWh
• The total cross-border sales
increased by 2341GWh
• Eskom supply is making an
increasing and positive
contribution to support the
economies of SADC and to
offset the impact of the drought
on the Kariba power station
• With progressive additional
capacity coming online in South
Africa Eskom will be reviewing
the exports with a view to
assess future sustainability
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Dec YTD 2015 Dec YTD 2016
Motraco (Mozambique JV) ZESA (Zimbabwe)
NamPower (Namibia) SEC (Swaziland)
BPC (Botswana) DAM (Day-Ahead Market)
Skorpion (Namibia) ZESCO (Zambia)
CEC (Zambia) ORC (Botswana)
LEC (Lesotho) EDM (Mozambique)
9 369
11 710
21
REIPPs sent out:
Self dispatching
energy from wind,
solar and hydro at
an average price
of 193c/kWh
Country demand:
Electricity required
by the country
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Capacity (
GW
)
Time of Day
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
Eskom net sent out: Demand
met by Eskom plant at an
average marginal energy cost
of supply of 23c/kWh.
Wholesale price is 77 c/kWh
Eskom’s demand:
Resulting electricity
needs to be met by
Eskom’s plant
Country demand (MW) Solar and wind IPPs Eskom demand Eskom net sent out
Eskom’s surplus capacity is a game changer until 2021
Solar and wind availability
decrease during peak period
resulting in Eskom plant ramping
up to meet demand
ILLUSTRATION BASED ON 31 AUGUST 2016
22
Cahora Bassa Koeberg
Lethabo
Hendrina
Matimba
Duvha
Medupi
Kendal
Kriel
Majuba
Komati Matla Grootvlei Camden Tutuka
Arnot
Pumped storage
Other IPPs
Hydro
Coal station International Imports
Other IPP
Nuclear Pumped Storage
Diesel
Total Generated Eskom Generated
Hydro
ILLUSTRATION BASED ON 31 AUGUST 2016
Simulation: Eskom is able to meet demand cheaply by dispatching its own stations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cap
acity (
GW
)
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
Time of Day
Ave
rag
e m
arg
ina
l c
ost:
2
3 c
/kW
h
23
Wind
Solar CSP
Actual data: Renewable IPPs are self dispatching and displace cheaper Eskom plant
ILLUSTRATION BASED ON 31 AUGUST 2016
Renewable IPPs:
This displaced the coal
stations at an additional cost
of R 52m for the day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cap
acity (
GW
)
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
03
:00
04
:00
05
:00
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
Time of Day
Coal station International Imports
Other IPP
Nuclear Pumped Storage
Diesel
Total Generated Eskom Generated
Hydro
Cahora Bassa Koeberg
Lethabo
Hendrina
Matimba
Duvha
Medupi
Kendal
Kriel
Majuba
Komati Matla Grootvlei Camden Tutuka
Arnot
Pumped storage
Other IPPs
Hydro
Ave
rag
e m
arg
ina
l c
ost:
2
3 c
/kW
h
Co
st:
1
93
c/k
Wh
Eskom wholesale price is 77 c/ kWh (wholesale price including renewable pass through cost is 83 c/kWh)
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
26
Distribution continues to exhibit sound technical performance
Description Highlights
Smart meter
installations
Technical
Performance
Electrification
performance
• Six provinces achieved their Quarter 3 targets.
• Four provinces; the Free State, Gauteng, North West and Northern Cape completed their electrification programmes ahead of schedule.
• We have achieved 162 104 new connections for the Q3 YTD
• We are moving towards our target of 207 332 connections by the end of this financial year (31 March 2017) and committed to achieving Universal Access by 2020
• We have a SAIFI target of 20 and SAIDI target of 39, with our
current performance, we are confident that we will achieve the year end targets
Technical
Performance
• At the end of the third quarter Energy Losses were better than the average industry benchmark of 8% at a performance of 6.5%
Energy Losses
• Exceeded the targeted installation performance for 3rd quarter - actual 17 561 installations versus target of 12 000 installations
Smart meter
installations
• Eskom Distribution accounts for 46% of the South African customer base, whilst the
rest falls within metros and municipalities
• Some of the key challenges facing the industry are:
• Huge under investment in electricity infrastructure - Adam baseline report of
2008 was R 27 billion and it grew to R 68 billion in 2014
• High energy losses as a result of inadequate revenue management system
• A number of distributors are in violation of their distribution license conditions
• Customer experience, in some instances, is so negative that customers refuse
to pay for the service
• Lack of competent skills to lead, manage and maintain the business
• Some utilities consistently default on their negotiated payment arrangements
because of systemic failures
• Effects of these shortcomings is detrimental to the economic growth of the country
• Addressing the above challenges is key to ensuring future financial sustainability
• We wish to acknowledge cooperation with Premiers and MEC’s in helping Eskom in
finding lasting solutions to the Distribution challenges
Distribution sector challenges
27
Over the 2016 financial year, munic debt increased to R10.2bn at the end of November, with Free State, Mpumalanga and North West contributing the most
28
Nov -16
10.2
4.2
Mar-16
6,0
Rbn
Western Cape 0,04
Northern Cape 0,6
0.64
Free State 4,3
Eastern Cape 0,42
North West 1,0
Mpumalanga 2.5
Limpopo 0,51
Kwazulu Natal 0.2
Gauteng
Municipal debt increase in 2016 and its municipal distribution
Free State, Mpumalanga and North West contribute R7.8bn of
the R10.2bn owed to Eskom
• Since the start of the PAJA process in November 2016, Eskom has managed to collect R 979
million from the municipalities
• This is testament of the ability of South Africans to work together during tough times
• The PAJA process triggered in North West, stimulated payment from municipalities where the PAJA
process had not yet been initiated – i.e. R 59 million outside of the PAJA process
Eskom initiated the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act (PAJA) process and recovered R 979 million in debt1
ProvinceKey
Defaulters
PAJA
triggered
PAJA
Suspended
Paja in
Progress
Free State 12 9 7 2
Mpumalanga 11 11 4 7
North West 9 8 6 2
Northern Cape 11 7 5 2
Eastern Cape 6 5 5 0
Limpopo 5 3 2 1
Gauteng 6 0 0 0
Kwa-Zulu Natal 4 1 1 0
Western Cape 1 0 0 0
TOTALS 65 44 30 14
-40 990 099
-2 011 737
-978 971 909
PAJA Process Summary18-Jan-17
-356 377 976
-222 665 699
-31 782 457
-52 115 719
-25 180 930
-175 153 885
Amounts Recovered
-72 693 406
Reduction in debt PAJA in
1 As of 18 January 2017 29
30
Description of high level agreements
Interruption of
supply
• Eskom allows the municipalities time until the 31 January
2017 to clear arrears
– Agreed amounts to be paid
– Payment Arrangements (PA’s) for the balance to be agreed
– Council resolutions for payment of Current Account and PA’s
No debt write off
• No Eskom debt shall be written off, as in contravention of the
PFMA
• All Debts to be paid by all municipalities
• Eskom to look at Interest and payment period policies
Conceive a
mutually beneficial
solution per
municipality
• Eskom and municipalities to jointly investigate solutions that
will be tailored for the needs of each municipality
– Prepaid Meter installations to municipal customers
– Revenue Collection Service to the Municipalities
– Provincial Government to Manage Eskom Overdue Account
– Active Partnering with specific municipalities (Eskom
personnel to assist)
Eskom has engaged municipalities and focuses on 3 main areas going forward
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
32
Transmission achieved the following highlights in Quarter 3
F2017
Description
• We have sold more than 3.9 TWh to neighbouring countries for Quarter 3 and more than 11.7 TWh year-to-date
• Demand-side management programme refocused to support sales growth initiatives.
• Peak demand reduction of 123 MW achieved year-to-date against target of 100 MW
System
performance
• Zero Major Incidents have occurred year to date
• Improvement initiatives have successfully been implemented to turnaround challenges experienced with System Minute <1
• Low number of interruptions, valued at 21 versus the limit of 26 year-to-date
Highlights
• High levels of maintenance execution with 98.8% of planned work executed
• Excellent line fault performance has been achieved year-to-date
Plant
Performance
Regional
Trading and
Demand
Management
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Transmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
Additional MW to be added to the South African grid
Installed capacity (MW)
• Eskom is
progressively
adding capacity
over the next six
years
• Ingula will be fully
commissioned in
2017
• Medupi will be
fully
commissioned by
2020
• Kusile will be fully
commissioned by
2022
Insights
New capacity will fuel the South African economy
800794794
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
55,000
4,764
2021
53,389
43,193
100 1,332
43,193
100
4,800
2022
54,189
1,332
4,000
4,764
2020
51,789
43,193
100 1,332
2,400
4,764
2019
50,195
43,193
100 1,332
1,600
3,970
2018
47,807
43,193
100 1,332
2,382
2017
45,419
43,193
100 1,332
2016
45,086
43,193
100 999
Sere Current capacity Ingula Kusile Medupi
40,000
34 43 193 MW is the current installed capacity excluding Medupi
Contents
4 Distribution overview
5 Tranmission
6 New build update
3 Generation performance
7 Conclusion
2 Operational highlights
1 Performance summary
Conclusion
• We are ensuring that power supply remains unconstrained through
our maintenance programme
• Eskom power system has progressed to a position of surplus capacity
which will positively impact the SA economy
• The availability of excess capacity allows Eskom to meet demand more
cheaply than through the purchases of renewable energy
• As a priority, both domestic and export sales must be further increased
• Eskom will continue to focus efforts on increasing growth in demand in
electricity and ensuring sustainable revenue collection
36