Quarterly National Accounts Inventory Sources and methods ...
Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts
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Transcript of Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts
Gabriel QuirósHead of Macroeconomics Statistics DivisionEuropean Central Bank
Quarterly IntegratedEuro Area Accounts
Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on StatisticsSkopje, 4 October 2013
ECB-RESTRICTED
FINAL
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Euro Area Accounts
• Why: ECB as a key user of statistics
• What are the EAA?
• How: Integration of data sources
• Results + Uses
Annexes:
1 New ECB Guideline: Changes from 2014
2 Additional examples of uses
3 Links to data and publications
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Governing Council takesmonetary policy decisions basedon an overall assessment of the
risks to price stability
Monetary analysis(medium to long-term
trends in inflation)
Economic and financial information
cross-checking
Primary objective of price stability(annual increase in HICP of close but below 2% over
the medium term)
Economic analysisfocusing on a wide
range of economic and financial indicators
(short to medium-term risks to price stability)
An evidence-based decision-making requires a large amount of high quality European statistics
ECB as key user of European statistics
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What are the EAA ? Synopsis of inputs + outputs
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Euro AreaBuilding blocks :- BoP- MFI- IF + FVC- ICPF- GFS
National non-
financial accounts
Other :BoP-euro areaEuropean Institutions (ECB, ESM)
Quarterly Eurostat Press Releases on Household saving + Business
Investment
Quarterly ECB Press Release on Economic
and Financial
Developments
National Financia
l Account
s
Financial
Accounts
Non-Financi
al Accoun
ts
Integrated Euro Area Accounts
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GS S1 S11 S12 S13 S14_5 S2 GS S1 S11 S12 S13 S14_5 S2
B1G Value Added/GDPD1 Compensation of Employees
D21-D31 Taxes less subsidies on productsD29-D39 Other Taxes less subsidies on production
D4 P roperty IncomeD5 Taxes on income and wealthD61 Social security contr.D62 Social security benefitsD7 Current transfersD8 Equity attr to policy holdersD9 Capital TransfersK1 Consumption offixed capitalK2 Acq .-disp. of non-prod non-fin assetsP 3 F inal consumptionP 5 Gross Capital FormationP 6 ExportsP 7 ImportsB9 Net lending
B9F Net lendingF1 SDR and M onetary Gold
F2-4 Currency, Deposits, LoansF3 Securities oth. Than sharesF5 SharesF6 Insurance technical reservesF7 Oth. accs receivable/payable
TransactionsEuro area accounts Uses Resources
What are the EAA? Giving Indicators an Accounting Framework
GDP
M3
HH ConsumptionGov Deficit
Gov Debt
Available in 2007 Balance of P ayments
M acro Economic Data BSI Statistics (M F I Balance Sheets)
Integrating data sources: National data and euro area building blocks
The euro area accounts integrate a large number of different data sources•Non-financial sector accounts•Financial accounts: The ECB “MUFA” Guideline•Building blocks:
– Balance of Payments (BoP)
– MFI Balance Sheet Items (BSI)
– Quarterly Financial Accounts for General Government (QFAGG)
– …7
Euro Area Accounts
Quarterly Sector AccountsCountry Contributions
Monetary Union Financial AccountsCountry Contributions
Euro Area Accounts
Quarterly Sector AccountsCountry Contributions
Monetary Union Financial AccountsCountry Contributions
Balance of Payments and
International Investment Position
Euro Area Accounts
STPFS
GeneralGovernment
Fin.Acc.
MFIBalance Sheets
Security Statistics
Security Holding Statistics
Quarterly Sector AccountsCountry Contributions
Monetary Union Financial AccountsCountry Contributions
Balance of Payments and
International Investment Position
Euro Area Accounts
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Monetary Union Financial Accounts (MUFA) are compiled by combining national data - coming through the ECB MUFA Guideline - and euro area financial building blocks
Which criteria are followed when deciding the source for each cell in the matrix ?
– Data reliability
– User needs and preferences
– Minimize horizontal imbalances
– Future development of the accounts, in particular in terms of timeliness
The MUFA Guideline and building blocks
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Data sources: National financial accounts and building blocks (BSI, BOP, QFAGG)
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Uses – some example: Enriching monetary analysis
Financial investment by householdsAnnual growth rate
• Value of analysing M3 developments by institutional sector
• Closer link between M3 holdings by households and price developments (but headline M3 still better predictor of turning-points)
• Looking at M3 against total financial investment / broader portfolio of assets
• Role of OFIs and ICPFs for financial intermediation & monetary analysis
1) Excluding money market fund shares.*) Percentage point contributions to annual growth of financial investment.
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Integrating real and financial perspectives(NFC accumulation accounts : financing and investment)
* Internal financing (gross saving) includes retained earnings and consumption of fixed capital. It is broadly equivalent to earnings before depreciation but after taxes and dividend payments in business accounting.
• Bulk of capital formation financed internally (gross saving)*
• Role of equity financing modest (except 2000-01)
• Linked to financial investment / M&A
• Resurgence of debt financing after consolidation
• Reduction of debt financing in credit crisis
Percentage of GDP, four-quarter moving sum
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Changes in 2014: The new ECB MUFA Guideline
New financial instrument and sub-sector details due to SNA 2008 and ESA 2010 •MUFA Guideline (quarterly), ESA TP (annual) and G-20 Financial accounts template are harmonised to a large degree
Additional user needs for quarterly Euro Area Accounts•Publication of Euro Area Aggregates at t+90
=> transmission of selected “supplementary” qFA data at t+85 (82)•Publication of national data => second transmission of detailed (revised) qFA at t+100 (97)•Other changes in volume and revaluations for all instruments•Whom-to-whom for securities (in addition to deposits and loans)(See Annex 1 for more details)
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Euro Area Accounts Overview
Thank you for your attention!Any questions?
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Annex 1: New ECB Guideline: Changes from 2014
Content
Tables
Data type Reference
period
1st
Reporting date
Timeliness
Stocks
Trans-actions
Other changes
in volume
Supplementary data for euro area ggregate (selected items)
T1 – assets T2 – liabilities T4 – short-term loans (w-t-w) T5 – long-term loans (w-t-w)
2012Q4 onwards
Sep 2014
Until December 2016: t+85 From March 2017 onwards: t+82
National data - from first transmission
T1 – assets T2 – liabilities T3 – deposits (w-t-w) T4 – short-term loans (w-t-w) T5 – long-term loans (w-t-w)
2012Q4 onwards
Sep 2014 Until December 2016: t+100 From March 2017 onwards: t+97
National data - w-t-w for securities
T6 – short-term debt securities (w-t-w) T7 – long-term debt securities (w-t-w) T8 – listed shares (w-t-w) T9 – investment fund shares (w-t-w)
2013Q4 onwards
Sep 2015 Until December 2016: t+100 From March 2017 onwards: t+97
National data - additional backdata
T1 – assets T2 – liabilities T3 – deposits (w-t-w) T4 – short-term loans (w-t-w) T5 – long-term loans (w-t-w)
1999Q1–2012Q3
Sep 2017 Until December 2016: t+100 From March 2017 onwards: t+97
Annex 2: Additional examples of uses- ESRB : Households’ debt-to-gross disposable income ratio
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Notes: Gross disposable income adjusted for the change in net equity of households and pension fund reserves.For Luxembourg, the first observation refers to 2008.For Bulgaria the last observation refers to 2010. For Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia the last observation refers to 2011. Data for Malta and Croatia are not available.
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Net worth of households
Source ECB/Eurostat
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Households gross disposable income
Source ECB/Eurostat
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Annex 3: Where to find?
ECB Website:Euro Area Accounts in Statistics : EAA HomepageSDW Tables and downloads• MOBU Tables:
Integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector, euro area non-financial accounts, households, non-financial corporations, insurance corporations and pension funds, and all euro area accounts time series
• EAA Detailed Tables: Main indicators, integrated economic accounts, institutional sectors, and who-to whom detail
• Country Tables : Euro area and other EU countriesPress releases : EAA – press releaseArticles• MOBU Article 2007 November• MOBU Article 2011 October