Q1/2008 Results Analyst Presentation

1

May 14, 2008

Q1/2008 ResultsAnalyst Presentation

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

2

DisclaimerDisclaimer

The information contained in this presentation

is intended solely for your personal reference.

Please do not circulate this material. If you

are not an intended recipient, you must not

read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take

any action in reliance upon it.

3

Corporate Vision, Mission & ValueCorporate Vision, Mission & Value

TOP seeks to be one of the leading fully integrated

refining and petrochemical companies in the region

recognized for our sustainable growth, optimum

stakeholder value, and commitment to

environmental and social well-being.

VISION• To be PTT’s flagship refinery through optimized

management of the group’s refining portfolio

• To expand facilities to better meet domestic demand growth

• To enhance the competitive advantage of our power generation operations to further solidify the core refining business

• To create a high-performance organization that promotes teamwork, innovation and trust

MISSION

P = ProfessionalismO = Ownership & CommitmentS = Social ResponsibilityI = IntegrityT = Teamwork and CollaborationI = InitiativeV = Vision FocusE = Excellent Striving

CORPORATE VALUE

4

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Business Outlook

Progress of Investment Projects

Market Conditions & Financial Performance

Q1/2008 Key Highlights

5

Q1/08 Key HighlightsQ1/08 Key Highlights

• TOP operated at optimum levels with refinery intake of 276 kbd, bringing

integrated intake to 288 kbd. On the back drop of high product spreads,

TOP run at 285 kbd in March 2008.

• Successful completion of TPX expansion project. Total aromatics complex

capacity increases from 420 to 900 KMTA as from May 2008.

• Construction of MCE project (Sugarcane based Ethanol) progressed as

plan (>50%). Expected COD by end 2008.

• GRM registered at 6.8 US$/bbl, reflecting rising crude price as well as temporarily high VLCC freight during Dec 07 – Jan 08.

• Benefits of strong middle distillate products can be fully capitalized in Q2.

• Integrated Margin registered at $ 7.3 US$/bbl. Due to TPX shutdown for expansion tie-in from 14 Jan, the group reported a net profit of Bt. 3.8 bln.

• 2007 dividend payment of Baht 4.50/share was made, equivalent to 48% of payout ratio

Overall

Operation& Business

Finance

6

Financial Highlights Financial Highlights Consolidated EBITDA

Consolidated Net Profit

(Unit: MB)

(Unit: MB)

5,8058,372

6,043

Q1/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

Q1/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

Q1/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

3,874

5,9434,621

Q1/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

83%

4% 5%8%

92%

2%3%3%

5,943 MB 4,621 MB 3,874 MB

64%

8%5%

23%

8,372 MB 6,043 MB 5,805 MB

Δ YoY

Δ QoQ -4%

-31%

Δ YoY

Δ QoQ -16%

-35%

Q1/08

Q1/08

80%

5% 9%6%

86%

4% 8%2%

65%

9%8%

18%

7


Business Outlook




8

30

60

90

120

150

03-Jan-07 14-Feb-07 30- M ar -07 15- M ay-07 27-Jun-07 08-Aug-07 20-Sep-07 01-Nov-07 14-Dec-07 01-Feb-08 18- M ar -08 30-Apr -08

Oil Product/Crude Prices & SpreadsOil Product/Crude Prices & SpreadsOil Product & Crude Prices

Product - Dubai Spreads

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4

Jet

GO

ULG95Dubai

HSFO

Dubai(US$/bbl)

55.4 64.8 70.1 83.2 91.4

14.6 16.5 16.4 19.4 23.0Jet-DB

GO-DB

ULG95-DB

HSFO-DB

GO-DB

68.4• High crude prices supported by

– Low crude stock in early-Q1

– Capital inflows into commodity to hedge against USD weakness

• Refineries cut run in early-Q1 due to high freight cost/negative hydro skimming margins

• Robust demand in developing countries due to subsidized retail price

• Strong Chinese GO imports amid lower domestic supply as a result of capped retail price

• Middle distillate inventory in mid-Q1 and late winter pushed distillate spread to record high

• High absolute FO price encouraged to move away to cheaper coal and NG for power generation, pressuring FO crack to record low

(US$/bbl)

Q1/08

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08

16.7

9

Oil Demand for Q1/2008Oil Demand for Q1/2008

738 724 704 730 740 724 733

110 120 104 140 160 117 117

87%89%91%

77%

91%91%86%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY/06 FY/07

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export

Petrochem & Others Utilization Rate

Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake

103126

77

316

102

128

84

323

73

118124

12591

338

65

Domestic Oil Demand

Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.

(KBD) (KBD)

TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales

LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FOGasoline

82% 88%78%

18% 12% 22%

FY/06 FY/07 Q1/08

Export

Domestic

FY/06

FY/07

44%

13%

9%

9%

16%

DomesticJobbers

Q1/2008

Sales

Breakdown

6%

Export = 22%

4%

Q1/08

Q1/08

Q1/08

10

Q1/08

2.06

7.31

11.36

Jan'08 Feb'08 Mar'08

0

2

4

6

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul -07 O ct-07 Jan-08

0

80

160

240

320

Gross Refinery MarginsGross Refinery MarginsTOP’s Crude Mix & Oil Product Yield

18% 16%

10% 9% 10%

42%37%

45%

19% 25% 12%

22% 23%17%

7% 6%16%

82% 83%

1%0%LPG

ULG

Jet

Diesel

FO

F/E

Local

M/E

2007 Thailand’sOil Demand

M/E Freight RateFreight

(US$/bbl)Freight

(World Scale)

TOP’s Accounting GRM (US$/bbl)

8.2810.56

6.00

11.67

6.76

4.84

8.97

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY06 FY07

Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss)

Q1/08

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08

Q1/08 GRM (US$/bbl)

-14.4

18.5

16.7

-14.4

14.5

-17.4

22.8

23.0

-17.8

13.7

(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)Product-DB Spreads

11

PX and LB MarginsPX and LB MarginsPX, MX and ULG 95 Spot Prices / Margins

500 SN & HSFO Spot Prices / Margins

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

ม.ค.-07 เม.ย.-07 ก.ค.-07 ต.ค.-07 ม.ค.-08

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

ม.ค.-07 เม.ย.-07 ก.ค.-07 ต.ค.-07 ม.ค.-08

(US$/Ton)

(US$/Ton)

PX

MX

ULG95

500SN

HSFO

PX-ULG 95

500SN-HSFO

542 473 395 268

637 538 466 380

257

434

420 • The SABIC MEG was back to operation in late Q1, relieving feedstock cost for polyester and hence resuming downstream operation and adding more demand

• Margin is still poor due to high feedstock cost and high MX supply from TPX

• 500 SN - HSFO spread in Q1/08 gradually spiked up as a result of:

– Tight supply availability of lube base as refiners maximized gasoil production

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08

BZ

TL

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08

505

12

542 473395 268

420257

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY07

Integrated MarginsIntegrated Margins

8.9711.67

6.00

10.568.28

6.76

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY07

Crude

PX - ULG 95

GRM

LB - HSFO

(US$/Ton)

(US$/bbl)

(US$/Ton)

1.85

1.40

1.28

1.251.15

0.87

0.71

0.86

0.30

0.10

0.52

0.64

7.28

10.8012.32

7.67

11.3410.52

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY07

• TOP Group’s integrated margin decreased to

7.28 US$/bbl (-33% YoY or -36% QoQ),

mainly affected by higher VLCC freight cost

by 2 US$/bbl in Jan-Feb

1) calculated from integrated intake

434

637 538466 380

505

Q1/07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/08 FY07

Q1/08

Q1/08

Q1/08

Q1/08

Integrated Margin 1) (US$/bbl)MX S/D

PX S/D

13

106 9990

99 94 9171 74

87100

70

95100

57

100 9886

95

Q1/07

Q4/07

Q1/08

Ship Utilization

Plant Utilization

Plant Availability

Lube Base Production

PX Production

RefineryUtilization

Q4/07

Q1/08

Q1/07

11.7

6.8

8.3

PX-ULG95GRM 500SN-HSFO

268

257

542

380

434

637

Q1/2008 Net Profit Breakdown

-450%-33%-1%-71%-77%-16%Δ YoY

-40%+51%+54%+44%+153%*-25%Δ QoQ

(14)533351403143,210Net Profit

*

* Only MX Production

* Increase MX sales volume following MX expansion completed since Dec 2007

1,370

314

3,8264,261

3,210

124

490

140

97

257

210

139

Q1/07 Q4/07 Q1/08

IPT/TP/TM

TLB

TPX

TOP

5,943

3,8744,621

PerformancePerformance BreakdownBreakdown byby CompanyCompany

14

7.28

6.76

Q1/08

11.678.28TOP’s GRM

11.3410.80Integrated Margin

Q1/07 Q4/07(US$/bbl)

664

3,210

3,874

(1,154)

1,122

(389)

5,805

96,314

(MB)

4,2613,826TOP

2,117

5,943

(1,530)

854

(471)

8,372

64,428

360Subsidiaries

(342)Financial Charges

4,621Net Profit

(1,482)Tax Expense

339FX G/L & CCS

6,043EBITDA

61,241Sales Revenue

23%

31.62

1.90

20%

35.14

2.91

33.89THB/US$ - ending

25%Effective Tax Rate (%)

2.26EPS (THB/Share)

* Restated P&L regarding to the change of accounting policy

-36%

-42%

% QoQ

-33%

-18%

% YoY

+84%

-25%

-16%

-22%

+231%

+14%

-4%

+57%

-69%

-16%

-35%

-25%

+31%

-17%

-31%

+49%

-8%

-7%

-16%

+15%

-10%

-35%

Consolidated Financial PerformanceConsolidated Financial Performance*

15

Solid Financial PositionSolid Financial Position

76,25771,83760,166

41,81532,891

19,706

30,33631,842

30,452

(Unit: MB)

CurrentAssets

Non-CurrentAssets

Other Liabilities

LT Debt136,570

110,324

148,409

FY/06 FY/07

Equities

1.0 0.9 0.9

0.40.4 0.3

FY/06 FY/07 Q1/08

Net Debt / EBITDA

Net Debt / Equity

Treasury

Policy

Bt. 30,336 mn.(US$ 959 mn.)

70%

18%

11%

1%

Currencies

As of 31 March 2008(31.62 THB/US$)

Interest Rate

US$51%

THB49%

*Figures shown are unauditted from the company’s Certified Public Accountants

Net Debt / EBITDA ≤ 2.0x

Net Debt / Equity ≤ 1.0x

Balance Sheet

Financial Ratios

Floated42%

Fixed58%

Q1/08

Q1/08

THB Loan 30%

US$ Loan15%

THB Bond 19%

US$ Bond 36%

Q1/08

Consolidated Long-Term Debt

16


Business Outlook




17

TPX Expansion ProjectTPX Expansion Project

TPX Process (after Expansion)

BTX : +480 KTA Aromatics

+PX 141 KTA +MX 18 KTA

+BZ 177 KTA +Tol 144 KTA

Cost : US$ 282 mn.

EPC : Bechtel

PMC : Foster Wheeler

Project Details

Total Aromatics 900 KTA

TPX Production

18

Capability Driven StrategyCapability Driven Strategy

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

REPUTATION

EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT

Capabilities

• Strong technological, engineering & operational expertise

• Good relationship with municipal & surrounding community

• Ability to produce Euro IV products at low cost prior to others

• Networking within PTT group

Enablers

Strategic Program

AlternativeEnergy

Diversification Strategy

Leading Fully Integrated Refining and Petrochemical Companies in Asia-Pacific

OrganicGrowth

Value ChainEnhancement

M&AInter. Invest.

• Experience in oil business

• Partnership with feedstock & technology suppliers

• Experience in power business (SPP&IPP)

• Knowledge & expertise in refining and petrochemical industry

• Strong balance sheet (low gearing ratio)

• Strategic fit with PTT group aspiration

A B C D E

19

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

A1 Residue Upgrading COD

A2 PX Capacity Expansion COD

A3 New IPP (735 MW x 2) 2 blocks

A4 New SPP (79 MW) PPA COD

A5 Marine Fleet Expansion Phase II

B1 EURO IV Product Phase I Phase II

B2 Synergy with PTT & Other Refineries

B3 Downstream Aromatics COD

B4 TLB Specialty Products

C1 Municipal Waste Power Plant COD

C2 Ethanol Plant (500 lpd x 3) Phase I Phase II

D1 Thaioil Energy Solutions

D2 MFC Energy Funds

E1 M&A

E2 International Investment

Phase III

Phase I

Phase I

Phase II

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

DIVERSIFICATION

M&A / INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT

ORGANIC GROWTH

VALUE CHAIN ENHANCEMENT

Projects Under Development

Road MapRoad Map--Key Strategic Initiative projectsKey Strategic Initiative projects

A

B

C

D

E

20

Residue UpgradingResidue Upgrading•Surplus domestic fuel oil•Higher differential price between distillates vs. fuel oil

Driving Forces

•Add residue upgrading facilities to process heavy residue and allow processing more heavy/sour crudes

Description

4.8 6.5

17.5

23.427.8 27.1

43.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-Apr'08

$/bbl

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

kbd

Gasoil - HSFO SpreadThailand Fuel Oil Export

21

PX Capacity ExpansionPX Capacity Expansion

Driving Forces

Description

•Surplus domestic Toluene•Higher differential price between Toluene and other Aromatics

•Upgrade Toluene to PX and BZ •Increase total PX capacity by 110 KTA to 600 KTA

0

400

800

1200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US$/Ton

Paraxylene

Benzene

Toluene

Paraxylene - Toluene

PX/BZ/TL Price ComparisonThailand Toluene Demand & Supply

Source: Dewitt company, PTIT, Samsung presentation

0

200

400

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

KTPA

ATC No. 1 ROC IRPCTPX ATC No.2 MOCDemand

22


Business Outlook




23

Current Crude Oil Forward PriceCurrent Crude Oil Forward Price

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130 WTI

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Avg 05: 57.18

Avg 07: 72.46

Avg 06: 66.99Month ago

14 May 08

Apr 08: 112.46

Mar 08: 105.16Year ago

May 08: 121.54

24

Relationship - USD and Oil Prices NYMEX - Net Long Position

1 Position = 1,000 bbl

1 Position = 100 Tons

82%85%97%11%-66%

Jan-May’08

Jan-Mar’08200720062005

WTI vs. USD Valuation

78%87%97%26%-75%

Jan-May’08

Jan-Mar’08200720062005

Dubai vs. USD Valuation

KeyKey FactorsFactors SupportSupport HighHigh CrudeCrude OilOil PricesPrices

25

Crude Reserve OutlookCrude Reserve OutlookUS Crude Stock OECD Europe Stock

Japan Crude Stock China Crude Stock

Capacity 19 mbbl

Capacity 19 mbbl

Capacity 73 mbbl

Capacity 15 mbbl

Capacity 31 mbbl

Capacity 33 mbbl

Capacity 73 mbbl

Capacity 44 mbbl

Phase I: 2006-2007

Phase II: 2008-2010

26

1

Impact of Higher Crude Oil PriceImpact of Higher Crude Oil Priceon Product Spreadson Product Spreads

0

250

500

750

1,000

Jan-00Jan-01

Jan-02Jan-03

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08

CoalCoal

HSFOHSFO

DubaiDubai

Higher Crude Price =>Higher Crude Price =>

Higher Spread FOHigher Spread FO--Crude Prices Crude Prices

Much Higher Spread CoalMuch Higher Spread Coal--FO PricesFO Prices

(US$/Ton)

GOGO

27

Reuters Singapore GRMReuters Singapore GRM

1

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14REUTERS SINGAPORE GRM

DB Cracking

DB Skimming0.96

5.80

1.79

-0.68

7.81

6.58

6.55

-1.02

6.20

0.95

10.13

0.64

8.43

2.01

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

6.96

-0.79Hydroskimming MarginHydroskimming Margin

Complex MarginComplex Margin

(US$/bbl)

28

China's Utilization Rates

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

105%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2006 2007 2008

TOTAL CDU: 7.8 MBDTOTAL CDU: 7.8 MBD

Japan's Utilization Rates

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

105%


2006 2007 2008


South Korea's Utilization Rates

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

105%


2006 2007 2008


Taiwan's Utilization Rates

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

105%


2006 2007 2008


Singapore's Utilization Rates

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

105%


2006 2007 2008


Refinery Utilization RateRefinery Utilization RateUS Refinery Utilization


29

ConsequenceConsequence ofof HighHigh CrudeCrude Oil PricesOil Prices

High Crude Oil Price

Poor Hydroskimming Margin

Lower Refinery Utilization

Higher Middle Distillates Price vs. Crude

Higher Usage of NG & Coal for Power Gen.

Lower FO Demand & Lower FO price vs. Crude

Higher Diff. FO vs. NG & Coal

Lower GO & Jet Production vs. High Demand

30

ConclusionsConclusions

At higher crude oil prices and much higher differential prices of GO/Jet vs. crude oil, TOP shall benefit from high GO/Jet production (>60%) and low FO production (<10%), on top of stock gain.

At higher crude oil prices and much higher differential prices of GO/Jet vs. crude oil, TOP shall benefit from high GO/Jet production (>60%) and low FO production (<10%), on top of stock gain.

With the completion of CDU-3 Revamp and TPX expansion projects, TOP group should be able to capitalize full benefits in 2008.

With the completion of CDU-3 Revamp and TPX expansion projects, TOP group should be able to capitalize full benefits in 2008.

TOP is committed to pursue development of new strategic projects as well as strengthen financial positions in order to cope with dynamic change in the current volatile oil industry.

TOP is committed to pursue development of new strategic projects as well as strengthen financial positions in order to cope with dynamic change in the current volatile oil industry.

31

Q & AQ & A

32

Thank YouThank You

Should you have any queries, please contact:Should you have any queries, please contact:

Investor RelationsInvestor Relations

at email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

Tel: 662Tel: 662--617617--83008300

Fax: 662Fax: 662--299299--01280128

33

APPENDICES

34

RegionalRegional OilOil Demand/SupplyDemand/Supply OutlookOutlookRegional Oil Demand1) Asia-Pacific Refining Capacity Additions

China 6,852 7,175 4.7% 7,593 8,503 9,302 5.2%Japan 4,969 4,819 -3.0% 4,716 4,435 4,214 -2.7%India 2,475 2,624 6.0% 2,747 2,971 3,222 4.5%South Korea 2,237 2,317 3.6% 2,376 2,461 2,504 1.9%Thailand 976 988 1.3% 1,019 1,075 1,143 2.7%Singapore 869 940 8.2% 1,014 1,165 1,331 7.4%Others 5,289 5,465 3.3% 5,671 6,038 6,376 3.2%Total Demand 23,666 24,328 2.8% 25,136 26,648 28,093 2.9%Total Supply 21,755 22,532 3.6% 23,041 24,926 25,936 3.0%

ME Sur/(Def) 3,072 2,873 -6.5% 2,990 3,046 3,562 2.5%

2008F 2010F 2012F% Annual Growth

(2006-12F)Kbd 2006A 2007A % Growth

Total

China 7,626 436 1,246 190 210 700 2,882Japan 4,529 - 32 19 - - 106India 3,055 580 144 215 120 - 1,123Taiwan 1,293 - - - - - 0Thailand 1,092 69 - - - 35 154Vietnam 5 - 121 - - - 121Others 7,264 55 90 - - 160 346

Total 24,864 1,140 1,633 424 330 895 4,732

2011F 2012F2010FKbd07

Existing2008F 2009F

Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Balance

0

600

1,200

1,800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

KBD

OthersJapan

IndiaChina

Source: FACTS, Spring 2008

YoY Demand Growth

YoY Capacity Addition

• Regional demand will remain outstrip supply even with several additional refining capacity projects during 2008-9, mainly in China and India.

• Chinese additional capacity is geared toward domestic demand. Indian capacity addition is geared for export to US & EU.

• Several new grassroot refinery projects in M/E (about 840 kbd - mainly in 2010) have been delayed or canceled due to longer delivery time of major equipment and high escalating costs.

35

Middle East: CDU Addition DelayMiddle East: CDU Addition Delay

• FACTS - Spring 2008 revised the forecast refinery capacity in Middle East buildup from 2.7 MBD to 3.0 MBD during 2007 – 2015.

• However, the timing of project completion has changed drastically and pushed back in general.

• Only 0.7 MBD of new CDU was expected to come on stream during 2007- 2010, and most projects are expected to materialize during 2011-2012

35

FACTS: FALL 2007Middle East CDU additions

FACTS: FALL 2007Middle East CDU additions

FACTS: SPRING 2008Middle East CDU additions

FACTS: SPRING 2008Middle East CDU additions

Source: FACTS, Spring 2008

36

PX Business OutlookPX Business OutlookGlobal PX Supply / Demand & Operating Rate

Domestic PX Demand & Supply

Aromatics Highlight :

• Strong demand growth will

continue through 2012

• Impact of large supply addition

will be in 2009

• Post completion of PTTAR

(ATC-2) project, Thailand will

be net export of PX from 2009

onwards

Source: CMAI, 2008 & Company

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

KTPA

ATC No. 1 ESSO TPX ATC No. 2 Demand

37

Lube Base Business OutlookLube Base Business Outlook

Source: Prelim Global Lubricant Basestocks Study, Kline - Apr, 07

• Regional Base Oil demand / supply growth will be more prominent than the global.

• Shortage of Group I/II supply in the region will support strong margin on high viscosity grade.

• Group III surplus would put pressure on low viscosity base oil.

100

200

300

0

Demand Supply

Group I

Group II

Group III

2006 2010 2015

Demand +3.8% CAGR

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Demand Supply

Group I

Group II

Group III

• Global Base Oil demand is expected

to grow by 2.1% CAGR through 2015.

• Global supply for Group I is expected

to gradually drop and be replaced by Group II and III.

2006 2010 2015

Demand +2.1% CAGR

Thailand Base Oil Demand Growth

Regional Base Oil Demand / Supply

38

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2006 2007 2008

mml / month

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mml / month

Household (LHS) Transportation (RHS)

Industry (RHS) Petrochem (RHS)

300

400

500

600

700


mmls/mth

2005200620072008

2008 Q1 up 17.6%

up 12.4 % up 9.2 % up 15.0%

Domestic LPG DemandDomestic LPG DemandThailand LPG Demand

LPG Demand by Sector

LPG Demand Highlight

• LPG demand continues rising momentum on the back drop of domestic price cap structure.

• Deferral of partial LPG price lifting supports demand growth of 17.6% in Q1/08.

Outlook 2008

• Despite high energy price, the Government still considers a partial price lifting to avoid shortage of domestic LPG supply.

• Expect LPG demand grow ~ 10% in 2008

Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

39

Thailand Gasoline Consumption By Grade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

2005 2006 2007 2008

mml / month

ULG91 ULG95 Gasohol 91 (E10) Gasohol 95 (E10) Gasohol E20

Thailand Gasoline Consumption By Grade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

APR

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

2005 2006 2007 2008

mml / month

ULG91 ULG95 Gasohol 91 (E10) Gasohol 95 (E10) Gasohol E20

520

550

580

610

640

670

700


mmls/mth

2005200620072008

2008 Q1 down 1.9%

down 5.3%down 0.3%

up 1.5%

Domestic Gasoline DemandDomestic Gasoline DemandThailand Gasoline Demand

Gasoline Demand by Type

Gasoline Demand Highlight

• Year 2007 witnessed recovery trend for gasoline, supported by sound economic growth.

• However, demand growth in Q1/08 was pressured by high oil price situation.

Outlook 2008

• Gasohol market would continue to increase at the expense of ULG due to more attractive price.

• Rising E20 car sales also boosts gasohol demand.

• These allow modest growth of base oil gasoline for this year.

• Expected growth of 1-2%.Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

40

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

# of flight per Quarter

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

mml per Quarter

# of Flights (lhs)JP 1 Demand (rhs)

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


mmls/mth

2005200620072008

2008 Q1 up 4.1%

up 0.8%up 6.1%

up 9.1%

Domestic JET DemandDomestic JET DemandThailand JET Demand

JET demand and # of flights

JET Demand Highlight

• Steady demand growth is supported by strong aviation and tourist businesses.

• Q1 demand growth is supported by increase in flight numbers of 7%.

Outlook 2008

• Strong tourist business in the region (especially China) should continue to support Jet demand growth.

• Expect Jet demand grow~ 4-5% in 2008


41

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008

mml / month

HSD B5

Domestic Gasoil DemandDomestic Gasoil DemandThailand Gasoil Demand

B5 Sales

Gasoil Demand Highlight

• A slight upward momentum was seen in gas oil due to economic growth.

• Soaring oil prices resulted in a stagnant demand for Q1/08

Outlook 2008

• Despite high oil prices, the Government’s economic stimulation should allow gas oil demand to recover with a slight growth of 0-1% in 2008.

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000


mmls/mth

2005200620072008

2008 Q1 down 0.3%

down 0.6%down 6.0%

up 2.2%


42

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


mmls/mth

2005200620072008

2008 Q1 down 10.5%

down 2.3% down 5.7%down 27.9%

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • Fuel oil demand continue its decline

momentum due to NG replacement.

• NG supply disruption (Artit & Yetagun) in Q1/08, resulted in short term FO demand in March 2008

• Q1 demand still dropped by only 10.5% vs 27.9% last year.

Outlook 2008• Expect fuel oil demand drop ~ 10%


2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900


mml / month

2005200620072008

Down 1.9%Down 0.6%

Up 0.3%

2008 Q1 down 10.5%

Total Petroleum Demand Total Petroleum Demand Highlight

• Q1/08 product demand grew by 1%, due mainly to LPG and Jet fuel.

• Local economic growth would support consumption while high prices would be a wild card to pressure growth.

Outlook 2008

• Expect Total demand grow ~ 1.0%

Domestic Fuel Oil & Total DemandDomestic Fuel Oil & Total Demand

Q1/2008 Results Analyst Presentation

Documents

Transcript of Q1/2008 Results Analyst Presentation