Purpose - NZ Transport Agency · POPULATION GROWTH (2011-2031) 30,000 500,000 1,500,000-12 to -2...
Transcript of Purpose - NZ Transport Agency · POPULATION GROWTH (2011-2031) 30,000 500,000 1,500,000-12 to -2...
NZ Transport Agency Page 1
PurposeThis paper provides an update to the 2009 Wellington Northern Corridor Summary Statement. The update relates specifically to the context, outcomes, strategic benefits and the implementation plan required to complete the Wellington Northern Corridor.
Information that has not changed from the 2009 summary statement has not been restated, allowing the update to concentrate on how the Wellington Northern Corridor has evolved since it was established, bringing individual network improvements together as a programme of work.
Key updates• Theoutcomesfirstidentifiedin2009
remainthesame.Thisshowsthattheimprovementsselectedin2009fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwererobust,standinguptothedetailedworkofthepastfouryears.
• Investigationscompletedsince2009havehighlightedsomeoutcomesthatwerenotpreviouslyrecognised,suchasresilienceandreliabilityimprovements.ThesestrengthentheoverallregionalbenefitsoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,anddemonstratehowitwillreducethepersonal,business,andregionaleconomicimpactproblemsthatexistonthecurrentSH1.
• Inparticular,duetotheconfirmationofroutealignments,thereismoreconfidenceabouttheresilienceoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.Somesectionsprovidealternativeroutesandstructureswillbedesignedtowithstandstrongerearthquakes.
• Recentinvestigationsshowthat,withtheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,morningpeakperiodtripsfromLevintoWellingtonwillbe40minutesshorter,comparedtoearlierforecastsof35minutes.
• In2009therewasnotenoughdetailedinformationtoforecasttraveltimereliabilityorcrashsavings.
• Traveltimereliabilityisexpectedtoimprovesignificantlyduetoincreased
capacity,egTransmissionGullyisexpectedtoeliminatevirtuallyalltraveltimevariabilitybetweenLindenandMacKaysCrossing.
• Thenumberoffatalandseriouscrashesisexpectedtoreducefrom140to100inthefirstfive-yearperiodaftertheWellingtonNorthernCorridor’sconstructionhasbeencompleted.
• TheexpectedconstructioncostfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorislargelyunchanged.In2009,theforecastedcostswere$2.6bandcurrentcostsarenow$2.5b(bothexpressedin2012dollarterms).
• TheBenefitCostRatio(BCR)fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeenupdatedto1.6(itwas1.1in2009).TheincreaseintheBCRisaresultofadditionaltransportandwidereconomicbenefits(egtraveltimereductions,anincreaseinagglomerationbenefits)beingidentified.
• VarioussensitivitytestsontheupdatedBCRhavebeenundertaken.ThesetestsshowthattheBCRfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasarangebetween1.1and2.8.
• TheBCRhasalsobeencalculatedinaccordancewiththerecentchangestotheEconomicEvaluationManual(eg6%discountrateand40yearevaluationperiod),whichapplytoalltransportprojects.
• WidereconomicbenefitssuggesttheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwilldeliver865additionalpermanentjobsintheregion,whereaspreviously650wereestimated.ToconstructtheWellingtonNorthernCorridoritisexpectedthatupto8,000newconstructionjobswillbecreated,peakingin2018with1,000activejobs.Thenumberofconstructionjobswaspreviouslynotestimated.
Project Summary Statement
NZ Transport Agency Page 2 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz
Ōtaki
Te Horo
LevinLake Horowhenua
O–taki River
Waikanae
Paraparaumu
Paekakariki
Raumati South
TASMAN SEA
Ka-piti Island
Pukerua Bay
Otaihanga
Waikanae River
Pauatahanui
Lake Wairarapa
Upper HuttRimutaka Hill
Featherston
Plimmerton
Paremata
Porirua
Linden
Cannons Creek
Waitangirua
Mana
Peka Peka
To Palmerston North
Grenada North
Petone
Lower Hutt
WELLINGTON Eastbourne
Kilbirnie
Hataitai
Kaiwharawhara
To Masterton
MacKays
Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel section
Tunnel to Tunnel section
Terrace Tunnel improvements
Aotea Quay to Ngauranga section
Linden to MacKays section (Transmission Gully)
MacKays to Peka Peka section
Peka Peka to Ōtaki section
Ōtaki to Levin section
Existing State Highway
LEGEND
Wellington Northern Corridor (Wellington Airport to Levin)Roads of National Significance
Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel section
Tunnel to Tunnel section– Basin Bridge– Buckle Street underpass– Inner City bypass improvements
Terrace Tunnel improvements
Aotea Quay to Ngauranga section
Linden to MacKays section (Transmission Gully)
MacKays to Peka Peka section
Peka Peka to Ōtaki section
Ōtaki to Levin section
N
NZ Transport Agency Page 3
National context updates
The Roads of National Significance Programme was announced in 2009 and represents one of New Zealand’s biggest ever infrastructure investments. Since 2009 the Government has released the National Infrastructure Plan, Connecting New Zealand, Safer Journeys and its updated Government Policy Statement on Land Transport Funding, both of which support the programme.Fromnorthtosouth,theRoadsofNationalSignificanceare:
PuhoitoWellsford-SH1
CompletingtheWesternRingRoute,Auckland-SH16,SH18andSH20
VictoriaParkTunnel,Auckland-SH1(completed)
WaikatoExpressway-SH1
TaurangaEasternLink-SH2
WellingtonNorthernCorridor-SH1
ChristchurchMotorways–SH1,SH74andSH76
TheTransportAgencystartedworkonallsevenRoadsofNationalSignificance,andhasalreadycompletedone–theVictoriaParkTunnelinAuckland.
In2011,researchonthewidereconomicimpactsclarifiedthebenefitsassociatedwithimprovedbusinessoutputandproductivity(oftenasaconsequenceofbusinesseslocatedcloselytoeachother–otherwiseknownasagglomeration),imperfectcompetition(betterrelationshipsbetweencostsandrevenues),jobcreationandchanges(asaresultofimprovedaccesstolabourandmarkets),andthemethodsfortheirassessment.Thisprovidedgreaterclarityofthevalueofthesebenefits.
ThecompletedVictoriaParkTunnelproject
NZ Transport Agency Page 4 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz
Regional context updates
Population forecasts show that Wellington will remain the third largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2013 the regional population was 471,300, increasing at 0.7% per year. By 2031, the population is forecast to increase to about 550,000.
WELLINGTON NELSON
BLENHEIM
PICTON
Tasman
Marlborough
75
% travels to Napier
25%
trav
els to
Well
ington
NEW PLYMOUTH
WANGANUI
NELSON
BLENHEIM
PICTON
NAPIER
HASTINGS
TAUPO GISBORNE
PALMERSTON NTH
Manawatu
Taranaki
Hawke’s Bay
Tasman
Marlborough
Buller
Wellington Northern Corridor
WELLINGTON
AIRPORT RAILWAYPORT
less than 2m tonnes
PORT
2-5m tonnes
SAFETY
Increased safety risk
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTUREFORESTRY FREIGHT
1-2m tonnes
6-7m tonnes
LEGEND
POPULATIONREGION POPULATION (2011)
POPULATION GROWTH (2011-2031)
30,000
500,000
1,500,000
-12 to -2 growth
-3 to 4% growth
5 to 12% growth
13 to 30% growth
*Whangarei, Auckland & Tauranga
import and export >5m tonnes p.a
>5m passengers
15% of timber exports
Wellingtoncontinuestodeveloparangeoftertiaryeducationandresearchinstitutions,includingthenewCallaghanInnovationandthreeexistingCrownResearchInstitutes.Asaconsequence,Wellingtonstillhasthehighestproportionofpeopleemployedinknowledge-intensiveservicesamongallofNewZealand’sregions.
EmploymentgrowthinWellingtonaveraged1.6%pabetween2000and2010comparedwith1.7%paoverthesameperiodforthenationaleconomy.WhilethisgrowthrateislowerthantheupperNorthIsland,WellingtonhasahighGDPpercapita-28%higherthanthenationalaverage.ThisreflectsWellington’s“nationaloffice”functionandthetypeofemploymentavailable.
Tourismisgrowing,withWellingtonrecordingthefourthhighestinternationalvisitorspend(andthirdhighestdomesticspend)ofanyregionin2012.ThisisexpectedtogrowwithWellingtonInternationalAirportforecastingthatpassengernumberswillincreasetoabout10.5millionby2030.
Wellingtonremainsanetimporteranddoesnotgeneratesignificantexportfreightduetothepresenceofmainlyserviceandknowledgebasedsectors.Throughfreight,however,isimportantasWellington’sgeographiclocationprovidesthehubforpeopleandfreightmovementsbetweentheNorthandSouthIslands.
CentrePort(PortsofWellington)isoneofthebusiestportsinNewZealandbecauseoftheCapital’sroleinfreight.Itsinfrastructure
enablesthemovementofapproximately11milliontonnesoffreightperannum.ThisvolumeissignificantlygreaterthanthemajorityofotherNewZealandports,withtheexceptionofPortsofAucklandandthePortofTauranga.
Centreport’sforecastincreaseinoperations,alongwiththegrowthfromothersectorsdescribedabove,willincreasepressureonthetransportnetwork,includingtheexistingSH1.
Since2009therehavebeensomenotablechangestothestrategicregional/localtransportpolicy/planningcontextthathaverecognisedthedevelopmentoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.Keychangesincludenewregionallandtransportstrategiesforboththe
NZ Transport Agency Page 5
Regional context updates
Population forecasts show that Wellington will remain the third largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2013 the regional population was 471,300, increasing at 0.7% per year. By 2031, the population is forecast to increase to about 550,000.
WellingtonandManawatu-Wanganuiregions,anewWellingtonRegionalPolicyStatementandanupdatetotheWellingtonRegionalStrategy.
Alsosince2009,aNetworkPlanfortheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeendeveloped.ThisPlanconsidershoweachsectionconnectswiththewidertransportnetworkandwhatimprovementsareneededtomaketheWellingtonNorthernCorridoreffective.ThekeypurposeofthePlanistoensurethattheimprovementsconnectoptimallyandcomplementlocalroads,publictransportandotherlocalinfrastructure.
Existing SH1 issuesTheexistingSH1routeremainsvulnerabletoclosureeitherafterasignificantearthquake,tsunamiorstormevent,orduetootherunplannedeventssuchastrafficcrashesandbadweather.DetailedinvestigationscompletedforTransmissionGullyindicatethatfollowingalargeearthquakeononeofthemajorfaultlines,thecoastalroutecouldbeclosedforbetweenthreeandsixmonths-whereastheTransmissionGullyroutecouldbeclosedforlessthanamonth.
TrafficisoftencongestedalongtheexistingSH1routecausingdelaysandresultinginunreliabletraveltimes.Forexample,investigationsforTransmissionGullyshowthattheLindentoMacKayssectionsuffersfromtraveltimes50%longerinpeakperiodsthaninnon-peakperiods.
Furthermore(asdemonstratedbytherecentKiwiRAP1initiative)SH1hasapoorsafetyrecordwithoneofthehighestnumbersoffatalandseriouscrashesperkilometreinNewZealand,especiallythesectionbetweenParaparaumuandLevinwhichaverages0.23fatalandseriousinjurycrashesperkilometreperyear.Thisissimilartothe0.21resultforthesectionofSH2fromPokeno(SH1)toMangatarata(SH25)intheWaikatoandBayofPlentyregion.
CommuterstoWellingtonarewellcateredforwithrail,busandferryservices,togetherwiththeroadnetwork.Theseservicesandnetworksgenerallyoperateatcapacityduringthepeakcommutingperiods.Thedisruptionstothetransportnetworkfromtheweathereventsinmid2013showedthedisruptiontopeopleandbusinessproductivitythatcanbecausedbyonlyhavingafewalternativeroutestoandfromWellingtonCity.
WellingtonInternationalAirport–TheAirport’sMasterPlan(2010)forecastsdomesticandinternationalpassengerswillgrowtoabout9million
and1.5millionrespectivelyby2030.
1NZRoadAssessmentProgramme.ItisapartnershipbetweentheNZAutomobileAssociation,NZTransportAgency,MinistryofTransport,ACCandNZPolicewithapurposeofanalysingtheroadsafetyofthestatehighwaynetwork.
NZ Transport Agency Page 6 For more information, visit our website www.nzta.govt.nz
Outcomes
Increased productivity and output indicators are shown below for the Transport Agency’s standard 40 year economic evaluation period. The Wellington Northern Corridor includes infrastructure that will endure far longer than this evaluation period and we can expect these impacts to last equally as long.
More efficient and reliable journeys
Traveltimesareexpectedtoreduceby40minutesfromLevintoWellingtonAirportin2031inbothdirectionsduringthepeakperiods.2
Significantreliabilityimprovementsareexpected.Forexample,TransmissionGullyisexpectedtoeliminatevirtuallyalltraveltimevariabilitybetweenLindenandMacKaysCrossing.
Safer journeys Thecombinednumberoffatalandseriouscrashesisexpectedtoreducefrom140to100inanyfiveyearperiodaftertheWellingtonNorthernCorridorhasbeencompleted.Inthefiveyearperiodbetween2008to2012therewere135fatalandseriouscrashes.
Increase in all traffic movements ThehighcapacityoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwillprovideforanadditional12,000vehiclesperdayatPoriruaand20,000vehiclesperdaysouthoftheWellingtonCBDby2031.
Effectiveness of Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV) movements
Traveltimesavingsofupto40minutesinpeakperiods.AlsotheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisaHighProductivityMotorVehicleroute–designedforlongerandheaviervehicles.
New and permanent jobs Increasedaccessibilityfromoutsideandwithintheregionisexpectedtoleadtonewemploymentfor865to3,700peopleasorganisationssetupnewplacesofemployment,andplanneddevelopmentsoccur.
Construction jobs About8,000constructionjobsareexpectedtobecreatedtodelivertheWellingtonNorthernCorridor.
Journey time reductionsEarlyworkontheAoteatoNgaurangasectionhasimprovedtraveltimereliabilityandprovidedtraveltimesavingsoftwominutes3inthepeakperiodbetweenthePetoneOverbridgeandtheTerraceTunnel.
Facilitating public transport, walking and cyclingTheWellingtonNorthernCorridorispartofamulti-modalapproachtomeetingtheWellingtonregion’sfuturetransportdemands.
Inadditiontoimprovingtheregion’sstatehighwaynetwork,theWellingtonNorthernCorridorwilldeliversignificantenhancementstotheregion’spublictransport,walkingandcyclingnetworks,forexample:
• TheBasinBridgeandMtVictoriaTunnelDuplicationimprovementswillfacilitateamoreefficientandreliablepublictransportspinethroughtheCBDtothesouthernandeasternsuburbs,and
• Upto31kmofnewwalkingandcyclingfacilitieswillbecreatedoncetheWellingtonNorthernCorridoriscompleted.MorefacilitiesmaybeidentifiedoncetheinvestigationsfortheŌtakitoLevinsectionhavebeenfullycompletedin2014.
2Thesourcesforthetraveltimesarethetransportmodelsforthesectionsofthecorridor.Therefore,thetotalisnotthetruetraveltimebutindicatesthescaleofthereductionacrossthecorridor.
3AnaverageasmeasuredbyfixedBluetoothreceivers.
Amenity outcomesAsaconsequenceofsignificantvolumesoftrafficrelocatingtothenewSH1,theWellingtonNorthernCorridorwillprovideimprovedamenityforthecentresandsettlementsonthewestcoastofthelowerNorthIsland.TherewillalsobereducedtrafficwithinWellingtonCity,includingalongthewaterfrontroads(egOrientalParade)andontheroadsaroundtheBasinReserve,providinganopportunityforbetteraccessandurbanamenity.
NZ Transport Agency Page 7
Updated economics
The Wellington Northern Corridor has a funding assessment profile4 of “HHL”, which has not changed since 2009. It has retained a High strategic fit profile due to its alignment with government objectives and existing road operating conditions continue to demonstrate the need for the improvements. It has retained a High effectiveness profile due to its demonstrated ability to meet the needs of the regional network. It has a Low efficiency rating because the updated BCR of 1.6 remains between 1 and 2. This efficiency rating is typical for a major infrastructure project, and it is noted that over a 40 year period a $3b return is expected from the Wellington Northern Corridor.
CostsTheexpectedcosttocompletetheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisnow$2.5b(expressedin2012dollars).Thishasn’tchangedsignificantlyfromthe2009estimateof$2.4b(whichisequivalentto$2.6bin2012dollars).Thereishigherconfidenceinthesecostsastheyarebasedondetailedinvestigationsandconfirmedalignmentsforthenewsectionsofroad.Nevertheless,asensitivitytestoncostshowsthatusinga95thpercentilecost6theBCRwouldbe1.3.OthersensitivitytestsshowthattheBCRrangesbetween1.1and2.8.
In2009,anestimateofagglomerationbenefitswasprovided,however,itonlyconsideredtheWellingtonurbanarea.ThecurrentappraisalnowconsiderstheareaasfarnorthasŌtaki.AgglomerationbenefitsarenotevaluatedbeyondŌtakibecauseemploymentintheareasneartheWellingtonNorthernCorridorbeyondthispointdoesnotmeettherequiredcriteriasetoutintheresearch.FortheWellingtonNorthernCorridortheagglomerationbenefitsareestimatedat$410mpresentvalue.
In2009WiderEconomicBenefits(WEBs)estimatesweremadeforthetwobenefittypeswhereevaluationmethodshadbeenfirmlyestablished:agglomerationandlabourdemand.Noallowancewasmadeforimperfectcompetitionorlaboursupplyimpacts.TheestimatemadefortheamountofnewemploymentresultingfromtheimprovedaccessibilityprovidedbytheWellingtonNorthernCorridorwasbasedontwo
factors:theamountofexistingemploymentandresultsfromagglomerationmodelling.Forthecurrentanalysisthebenefitshavebeenestimatedonthebasisoftheproportionsoftheexistinglabourforceonly.Thisprovidesamoretransparentapproachtotheirassessment.Inlinewithcurrentadvice,thelabourdemandbenefitsarebasedonthetaxwedgegeneratedbynewemploymentratherthanthefullincreaseinGDP.In2009thefullGDPofnewlabourwasassumed.
Usingcurrentadvice,865additionaljobsareestimatedtobegeneratedoncompletionoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,resultinginbenefitsof$800mpresentvalue.Thisissimilartothe$715mpresentvalueestimatedin2009,thereforeitdoesnothaveamaterialimpactontheBCR,butassistswithbetterunderstandingofthebenefitsandprovidesusefulinformationformonitoringpurposes.
4Thefundingassessmentprofileisthebasisforcomparisonandprioritisationwithotheractivitiesnationally.Ingeneral,activitieswithhigherassessmentprofileswillbeconsideredaheadofthosewithlowerprofilesforinclusionintheNLTPandforNZTAinvestment.
5TheBCRshavebeencalculatedinaccordancewiththeNZTA’sEconomicEvaluationManual.ItisnotedthatthebenefitsoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorarenowevaluatedovera40-yearperiodratherthana30-yearperiodasundertakenin2009.
6Thatis,ifaprojectwascompleted20times,onewouldexpecttheout-turncosttocomewithinthisvalueon19ofthe20occasions.
TheBCRs5fortheWellingtonNorthernCorridor,measuringthedirecttransportbenefitsarisingfromimprovementsrelativetocosts,areasfollows:
Discount Rate BCR without WEBs BCR including WEBS
6% 1.6 1.7
SensitivityTestsonDiscountRate
8% 1.2 1.4
4% 2.2 2.3
Website: www.nzta.govt.nz/projects/wellington-northern-corridor/index.html
Contact us
Delivery programmeThedeliveryprogrammeforeachsectionoftheWellingtonNorthernCorridorisshownbelow.
Section Description Completion Date
Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel (2 km) DuplicationoftheMtVictoriaTunnel,andwideningofRuahineStreetandWellingtonRoad
2022
“Tunnel to Tunnel” (3 km) AbridgeonthenorthernsideoftheBasinReserve,anunderpassforBuckleStreet(aspartoftheNationalWarMemorialPark)andimprovementstotheexistingInnerCityBypass
2017
Terrace Tunnel improvements (3 km) Includestunnelduplication 2024
Aotea Quay to Ngauranga (4 km) Useofexistingmotorwayshouldersasa“fourthlane”,andtheimplementationofanewtrafficmanagementsystem
2022
Ngauranga to Linden AlinkroadbetweenPetone(SH2)andGrenada(SH1)maybedevelopedbyeithertheNZTAorlocalcouncilsifitisdeterminedthatitwilldeliverbenefitstothesectionofSH1betweenNgaurangaandLindenand/ortoSH2betweenNgaurangaandPetone
2023
Linden to MacKays (Transmission Gully) (27 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandard7fromnorthWellingtontoMacKaysCrossing
2020
MacKays to Peka Peka (16 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandardfromMacKaysCrossingtoPekaPeka
2018
Peka Peka to Ōtaki (15 km) Four-laneexpresswaystandardfromPekaPekatoŌtaki 2020
Ōtaki to Levin (approx 30 km) AphasedupgradeoftheexistingSH1tofour-lanesovertime.Firstphase(tobecompleted2019-2024)includeswidening,improvedpassingopportunitiesandupgradestonarrowbridgesandkeyintersections.Priortothisphase,minorsafetyimprovementsarealsobeingconsidered
2024
7Expresswaysaredualcarriagewaysthatallowmotoriststodriveatspeedsofupto100km/h.Theyaredesignedtobestraighterandflatterthanotherroads.Forsafetyreasons,trafficineachdirectionisseparatedbyacentralbarrierorstripofland.Afour-laneexpresswayallowsforhighervolumesofthroughtrafficthancanbeaccommodatedbyatwo-laneroad.Providingtwolanesineachdirectionalsoallowsfast-movingtraffictoovertakeslower-movingvehicles.Accessfromlocalroadstotheexpresswayisrestrictedtoreducetheriskofcrashesandallowmoreconsistenttraveltimes.Whereaccessisprovided,thisusuallytakestheformofaninterchange.