Purpose: Integrated assessment of options to control air pollution in Europe

• Model the full chain from sources to impacts

• Multi-effects: acidification, health (PM, O3), eutrophication,

vegetation (O3)

• Grasp full picture, cover all sectors (stationary, mobile, agriculture, industry)

• Includes all Europe (48 countries)

• Multi-pollutant

The RAINS model

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

SO2 NOx NH3 VOC Primary PM

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ground-level ozone (health + vegetation)

Health impacts from fine particles

(via secondary aerosols)

The model: RAINSdeveloped by IIASA

Energy/agriculture projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental impactsEnvironmental targets

Costs OPTIMIZATION

PM control optionsconsidered in RAINS

•Stationary Sources:

• Cyclones

• Fabric filters

• Electrostatic precipitators (ESP)– 1 field – 2/3 fields – 3+ fields

• Improved combustion techniques

for small sources

• Mobile Sources:

• EURO-II

• EURO-III

• EURO-IV

• EURO-V

Scenarios for City-Delta

• 1999

• Current legislation 2010 (CLE 2010): Energy projections supplied by countries or DG-TREN + presently decided emission control measures, taking into account age structure

• Maximum technically emission reductions (MFR): Full application of available emission controls, excluding non-technical measuresand excluding early retirement of existing plants

Example implementationof loss of life expectancy calculations

• RAINS PM2.5 scenarios for 1990, CLE 2010, MFR

• RAINS SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 scenarios

• Dispersion of primary PM: EMEP PPM model

• Formation of secondary PM: EMEP Lagrangian model (to be substituted by Eulerian model)

• Urban primary PM: assumed 25% above rural background (awaiting input from CITY-DELTA)

• Annual mean concentrations

• RR of Pope et al., 2002

• RAINS population data, UN population projections

Illustrative resultsRural background PM2.5 [μg/m3]

1990 Current legislation

2010

Maximumfeasible

reductions 2010

Illustrative resultsLosses in avg. life expectancy [months]

1990 Current legislation

2010

Maximumfeasible

reductions 2010

Illustrative resultsLosses in avg. life expectancy [days]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Cze

ch R

epub

licG

erm

any

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Bel

gium

Slo

vaki

aH

unga

ryU

krai

neR

oman

iaLu

xem

bour

gS

love

nia

Aus

tria

Bul

garia

Rep

ublic

of

Yug

osla

via

Cro

atia

Fra

nce

Sw

itzer

land

Bel

arus

Ital

yU

nite

d K

ingd

omB

osni

a a

ndLi

thua

nia

Latv

iaD

enm

ark

TF

YR

Alb

ania

Rus

sia

nG

reec

eE

ston

iaS

pain

Sw

ede

nP

ortu

gal

Irel

and

Fin

land

Nor

way

Ave

rage

MFR CLE 1990

Assumptions

• Primary PM in cities 25% above rural background

• RR of 1.06 [1.02-1.11] for 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (Pope et al., 2002)

• American RR applicable to Europe

• No effects below 5 μg/m3 PM2.5

• Linear extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m3 PM2.5

• No effects for people younger than 30 years

• For each scenario constant exposure 2010-2080, cohorts followed up to end of their life time

• Constant urban/rural population ratios in each country

Sensitivity analysis

• Preliminary analysis limited to uncertainties of RR (95% CI 1.02-1.11) identified by Pope et al. (2002)

• Loss in life expectancy (days):

• Other uncertainties: Extrapolation beyond range of evidentiary studies, transferability, population projections, emission and dispersion calculations, etc.

• In principle, error propagation (Suutari et al.) is possible

Mean 95% CI

1990 496 168-888

CLE 278 94-497

MFR 192 65-344

RAINS on the Internet

• Report about life expectancy calculations• RAINS databases• All reports produced for EU and UN-ECE

• Interactive on-line version of RAINS

Freely available on the Internet:

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains