Public Opinion 1 9 9 8 Barometer - fundatia.ro iunie 1998.pdf · Open Society Foundation has...

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9 8

Public Opinion Barometer

Information presented by Daniel Chindea

SOCIAL AND HUMAN RESOURCES FOR REFORM IN ROMANIA

CURS Center for Urban and Regional Sociology

Public Opinion Barometer - 1998 PUBLIC OPINION BAROMETER

Social and Human Resources for Reform in Romania Open Society Foundation has launched in 1998 a new formula for Public Opinion Barometer under the title: Social and Human Resources for Reform in Romania. Data collection is planned during one year on two waves. The first wave will be ended by June, 30, 1998. The new Barometer contains three different researches for each wave that will be finally integrated by aggregation and comparison: a research at the level of ordinary individual on a 1200 sample in 80 localities, a research at the level of institutional leaders in the same localities on an approximately 1000 subjects sample and a research at the level of communities (120) by collecting information from different fields relevant for community life. The main themes of the new Barometer include: political options and confidence in political parties and personalities, life quality and life standard, social and economic policy of the government, social capital and sociability resources, human and physical capital, life styles. Data collection instruments have been built by a group of Ph.D. students in Sociology, selected by contest, from three universities: Bucharest University: Ionica Berevoescu, Bogdan Juncu, Andra Lazaroiu, Sebastian Lazaroiu, Manuela Stanculescu; Cluj University: Dan Chiribuca, Mircea Comsa; Brasov University: Roxana Florescu , Narcisa Grigorescu.

Sample design was conceived by Prof. Dumitru Sandu in Esantionare si analiza regionala. Barometrul 1998: resurse socio-umane ale reformei. The members of the supervising committee are: prof.univ.dr. Dumitru Sandu, prof.univ. dr. Lazar Vlasceanu, prof.univ.dr. Traian Rotariu, Calin Anastasiu, lector Gheorghe Onut, lector Aurora Dumitrescu, conf. Dumitru Stan. CURS-Center for Urban and Regional Sociology was elected by open bid to carry on the first wave of the Barometer from 7 different research agencies. Selection criteria: the quality of interviewers’ network; experience in data collection on probabilistic samples; professionalism and confidence of the research staff; public prestige (previous successes and failures); abiding by the terms of reference and availability to work on June. The results of the Barometer will be published as written reports (charts, tables, text) through press conferences organized by each research agency. For research results and data bases see Internet address: http://www.sorosis.ro

Program Coordinator: Ionel David Tel (401) 659 74 27;650 63 25;2110753, Fax: (401)312 27 45

E-mail: [email protected]


Do you think things go in a right or wrong direction in Romania?

DK/NA23%

Direction is wrong52%

Direction is right25%

How satisfied are you with the way you live... ?

Very satisfied2%

Not satisfied at all

17% Quite satisfied34%

Not so satisfied46%


How is your life now as compared with last year ?

1%

11%

38% 38%

11%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Muchbetter now

Better now Quite thesame

Quiteworse

Muchworse


How do you think you'll live one year now ?

1%

23% 24%28%

10%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Muchbetter

Quitebetter

Quite thesame

Quiteworse

Muchworse

DK/NA


What would you say about your family income ?

1%

7%

18%

31%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

You manage to have all weneed with no restraints

We manage to buyexpensive goods by saving

money

We have enough for adecent living, but nothing

more

We can't even satisfy thebasics

We manage to get thebasics


How much confidence do you have in the following political personalities…?

6%67%

11%68%

5%63%

11%66%

17%67%

16%64%

7%56%

6%50%

21%60%

14%54%

28%60%

25%60%

16%50%

26%53%

16%40%

39%51%

36%44%

39%41%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Marko Bella

Ion Diaconescu

Ilie Verdet

Regele Mihai

Victor Ciorbea

Gheorghe Funar

Nicolae Cerveni

Tudor Mohora

Adrian Nastase

Valeriu Tabara

Ion Iliescu

Petre Roman

M.I.Quintus

C.Vadim Tudor

Varujan Vosganian

Emil Constantinescu

Teodor Melescanu

Radu Vasile

Little/Very little Much / Very much


Suppose next Sunday elections for Parliament will take place. What political party or alliance would you vote for?

4%

6%

7%

13%

14%

22%

34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Other

UDMR

APR

PRM

USD

PDSR

CDR

Percentages computed from those who opt for a party

48% undecided or not-voting


Suppose next Sunday presidential elections will take place. What candidate would you vote for?

5%

9%

9%

14%

23%

40%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Other candidates

P.Roman

T.Melescanu

C.V.Tudor

I.Iliescu

E.Constantinescu

Percentages computed from those who opt for a candidate

51% undecided or not-voting


Do you believe that the economic policy of Government will have positive or negative

consequences in the next year?

Negative consequences

41%

Positive consequences

31%

DK28%


How fast or slow should privatization process go?

as it goes today10%

slower than today7%

Don't know/No answer24%

faster than today59%

NEW!


Do you think that privatization process will finally lead to people welfare?

Don't know/No answer

23%

no20%

yes57%

NEW!


To what extent do you believe that government fairly uses the taxes you and other people pay?

To a little extent38%

To a very little extent34%

Don't know/No answer

16%

To a very great extent

1%To a great

extent11%

NEW!


According to your opinion, who is the one who most benefits from privatization of large enterprises…

26%24%

19%

9%7%

2% 1%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

foreign business peoplepoliticians

managers of the enterprises

all Romanian people

Romanian business people

workers form enterprises other

differences to 100% represent people with no opinion


Do you think that privatization process goes..

Don't know/No answer24%

unfairly, often times66%

fairly, often times10%

NEW!


How do you think people who made a fortune succeeded to do that, after 1989? By…

54%

22%

7% 7%2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

breaking thelaw

relations hardworking andcompetence

luck other way

Differences to 100% represent those with no opinion

NEW!


Research methodology at the level of ordinary individual •  Sample size: 1215 •  Probabilistic, stratified, three-stage sample •  Stratification criteria: 18 geographic areas on historical regions, residence (urban-rural), urban localities size (4 types), degree of development of rural localities (3 categories) •  Sampling: probabilistic selection of localities (80), sampling points (voting districts, 140) and individuals. Individuals were randomly selected from the last voting lists. •  National representativeness for 18 years and above Romanian population which is not institutionalized , with a maximum sampling error of +/-2,8% •  Interviews taken by ‘door-to-door’ technique •  It must be mentioned that public opinion polls do not necessary represents electoral predictions. Those who are interested in this kind of prediction should not ignore the large category of people who failed to opt for a party or candidate and also low confidence in political parties. •  Fieldwork: 3-10 June 1998.

Statistical analysis and editing: Vladimir Cretoiu Andra Lazaroiu Sebastian Lazaroiu

National sampling points

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