Health Strategy

Policy Reform UnitPakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Green Development Agenda Pakistan

Pakistan - A Gift of Allah• Unique Natural Heritage and assets :

– Most inclined countries in the world– World’s highest mountains & Largest

plateau– Four full seasons– Extensive river and largest canal system– 10 ecological zones

– 225 Protected Areas (PAs)– 14 national parks– 99 wildlife sanctuaries / 96 game reserves.

– Forests & wetlands – Diverse biodiversity & wildlife

– 174 species of mammals and 668 species of birds– 198 native and introduced freshwater fish species– More than 5500 species of vascular plants

Pakistan – Wasted potential !• Natural resources under stress and environmental inefficiencies not being

plugged– Water - Scarcity going up :

• Storage capacity at 9% while world average is 40% – Water - Delivery efficiency :

• 35-40% from canal head to root zone– Forests – High rate of deforestation– Energy - Thermal generation efficiency low

• 25-35% while world average is 55%– Energy- Distribution losses high :

• 23% which is very high– Energy Security - Capacity of strategic energy reserves low :

• 29 days compared to 60 days (US) and 90 days (EU)

• Overall :• inefficient economy but with a high inherent potential for win-win

improvements

Development pathway – unsustainable

• Environmental costs – show alarming situation:– Environmental degradation costs 6% of GDP

(Rs 365 billion/annum)

– Air pollution (indoor/urban air) – 50%

– Water pollution (sanitation/hygeine) – 30%– Land degradation (reduce agri productivity) – 20%

• Estimates do not include degradation of coastal/marine environment

• Climate Change further exacerbating the situation..

Pakistan – where we are on climate front?

A very low emitter but one of the worst victims of climate change:

•Maple-croft vulnerability index places us in High/Extreme category•German-watch places Pakistan as “Most affected” for 2010 and in “Top 10” for 1990-2010

Rank

Country CRI Score

Death Toll

Deaths per 100000

inhabitants

Absolute Losses (M $ PPP)

Losses per unit GDP in %

HDI

1 Pakistan 3.5 1891 1.1 25316 5.42 145

2 Guatemala 6.33 229 1.59 1969 2.80 131

3 Colombia 8.0 320 0.70 7544 1.73 87

4 Russia 11.0 56165 39.3 5537 0.25 66

5 Honduras 14.67 139 1.73 220 0.65 121

6 Oman 17 24 0.81 1314 1.73 89

7 Poland 17.83 151 0.40 4745 0.66 39

8 Portugal 19.67 47 0.44 1749 0.71 41

9 China 23.50 2889 0.22 33395 0.33 101

10 Tajikistan 24.17 27 0.35 262 1.77 127

Basis of Vulnerability ?

…….In a neighborhood of Unavoidable “vulnerability” with main issue being “WATER”...…too much and too little both

cause serious consequences

Glacial Melting Zone

Natural Disasters

• Maximum natural disasters (90% in the Table) are climate related.– The damage costs of these

natural disasters is going up with the top three disasters occurring in the past three years

– The frequency of these natural disasters is going up with 60% occurring in the past 10 years.

Disaster Date Damage (000 US$)

1Flood 2010 9500000

2Earthquake 2005 5200000

3Storm 2007 1620000

4Flood 1992 1000000

5Flood 1973 661500

6Flood 1976 505000

7Flood 2007 327118

8Drought 1999 247000

9Flood 2001 246000

10Flood 2008 103000

The price tag !

Method Time period Cost of adaptationper annum

Actual (2010) One year(2010)

9.7++

As a percentof GDP

2010-2050 10.71

Per CapitaBasis

2010-2050 7.12 to 14.0

DisasterModeling

(Floods only * 3)

2010-2050 6.09 to 11.3

• Adaptation to climate change is going to be a high value figure in the future

• (U$ 6-14 bn/yr)

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..

10,000 BC = 5 million 1 AD = 150 million 1800 AD = 1 billion 1950 AD = 2.5 billion 2000 AD = 6.1 billion 2011 AD = 7 billion 2050 AD = 9 billion

54% growth in population from 1990 to 2008 …. Already the 6th most populous country (WB)

UNEP ETB

• GHG Emissions at 42 GtCO2e/ annum are 5 times what Earth can absorb (UNEP)

• Energy is main culprit

• Pakistan’s GHG emissions, though still very low, show a rising trend

• Poised to go up 15 times in next 40 years based on a coal based growth projection

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..

The urbanization challenge :

• Pakistan has highest urbanization rate in South Asia (1990-2025)

• Searching for sustainable cities to absorb influx

Pakistan – mirroring the wrong global trends…..

Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are……………..…..

Global trends demand a re-think Green Economy

• The original growth model being revisited, revised and improved….but…

Still searching for a definition ?

PTI endeavors to lead Pakistan in this direction…

Harnessing the Strengths

A shifting global viewThe Most Dangerous Nation - 2008

The World’s Bravest Nation – 2010-11

Why?• Growing recognition of Pakistan as a “strong and

resilient nation” and a “survival economy” which in the past decade has absorbed and sustained :– Two mega-floods (2010-11)– Two cyclones in the South– Massive Earthquake– Influx of IDP’s and continuing stream of Afghan

refugees• Moreover, a country which has braved the

“security spillover” and associated economic drain of the War in Afghanistan.

Shaping a new “development governance”

– Partnership between Government-Business-Citizen– Citizen Sector - Emerging, independent and assertive

• Don’t wait –step in when Government slow or absent

– Backed by Indigenous philanthropy – one of the main pillars of social support and rising every year

• Rs 70 – 100 billion/year (1998)

– Sets the right priorities

Pakistan...a country with a BIG heart !• Host to the largest number of refugees in the world

(1.7 Million)

• Sustaining Highest number of refugees vis-à-vis its economic capacity

Pakistan …..innovating

• On ‘Innovation Efficiency’ Pakistan’s economy ranks an impressive 4th, ahead of all developed and developing countries except China “INSEAD Innovation Index 2011”

• Pakistani businesses and entrepreneurs have shown extreme resilience and ingenuity in a very adverse environment - working with minimum resources to get impressive results.

• Depicts Pakistan’s strong ‘can do’ attitude in the face of a wanting enabling environment

Pakistan in Next-11 (Goldman Sachs)……

5 years back Pakistan termed a country…. “having a high latent potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world largest economies of the 21st century” 5 years of misrule and poor governance / eco mismgmt..

…… Still not being written off …….Still considered an Economy “waiting to happen”

BUT

Tipping Point

• Point demanding change …. make sustainable choices.

“Change is inevitable…..Growth is optional” (John Maxwell)

• PTI aims to deliver change and sustainable growth

Where does PTI stand ?

• Pakistan’s only Political Party to :– Include environmental conservation in its party

Constitution Objectives:– “To protect the environmental resources and ensure clean air, clean

water and a sustainable growth in Pakistan in the face of emerging threats such as climate change”

• Entrust environmental responsibility within party structure

• Include a focus on Environment in its election manifesto

• Clearly outline its green development/environmental policy

What PTI is aiming for ?

Shift away from “BAU” growth

trajectory - resource

inefficient and pollution laden

Balance the needs of

development and nature

conservation

Provide opportunities for

poverty eradication, encouraging

innovation and creation of green

jobs

Lead to an improved quality of life for citizens

of Pakistan.

How PTI will “make it happen”?

State the “Obvious”• Challenges and Solutions• Action not sloganeering

Political ownership• Party Constitution• Election Manifesto

Create the political “buy in”:• Translate for Public

appeal• Define in economic

terms

Keys to Implementation• Political mandate• Public obligation• Economic incentive

Contours of the Green Development Agenda

Policies and Plans – No dearth !• Recent overarching Framework for Economic Growth

(2011)• Vision 2030

• Other relevant : • National Environment Policy

• National Sanitation Policy

• National Energy Conservation Policy

• National Environmental Action Plan

• National Health Policy

• National Education Policy

• National Forestry Policy

• National Biodiversity Action Plan

• National Action Plan to combat desertification

• National Climate Change Policy

National Planning Blueprint• 5 year plans • MTDF (Medium Term Dev Framework 2005-10)• ADP (Annual Development Plans)• PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper)-2001-3-7

Solutions – Not “rocket science”• Problems are known• Strategies are plenty • Solutions are common sense

BUT Still….The “obvious” still needs to be :

Clearly stated Politically owned

Backed by a solution driven approach

Defining “Green”…………….

Green Development

Agenda

Water• Wetlands

Air

Energy• Transport• Buildings• Industry

Agriculture

Forestry Climate Change

Biodiversity• National

Parks

Waste

Valuing Nature

Environmentl Awareness & Governance

Valuing Nature to Preserve Nature

• Properly Value the “life support systems” that nature provides (National Ecosystem Assessment)

• Internalize and integrate true environmental costs in all economic decision making– National “Eco budget” to be prepared with

national budget to reflect the impacts on nature

– Make natural CBA an integral part of EIAs

Water – the primary challenge……

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1940-41 1950-51 1960-61 1971-72 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Years

Po

pu

lati

on

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

Percap

ita Water A

vailibility

(Cu

bic M

eter)

Population Water Ava

Source: PCRWR, 2001

Annual Fresh Water Flow into Sea

Summers Winter1970-1990 34 MAF/yr 1.86 MAF/yr

1990-2000 47 MAF/yr(40% increase)

3.28 MAF/yr(76% increase)

Rate of Glacial Receeding in Himalayam/year

18

7.3

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

1842- 1935 1935- 1990 1985- 2001

Period

met

ers

Water Needs are going up

Yet….we are flushing more water into sea

Existing storage capacity going down(18 MAF to 12 MAF)

Climate change adding anotherUncertain dimension - shrinking glaciers / Freshwater reserves

Water – drinkable, clean and plenty • Value water and treat as a precious resource• Improve water conservation

• Expand canal lining • Rainwater and flood harvesting

• Plug water wastage and improve storage capacity• Build new water reservoirs / dams• Flood water management

• Clean Drinking water provision :• Water filtration plants at each UC

• Clean up the sources• Enforce water pollution standards• CETP facilities at ALL Industrial estates• Install water sewerage and drainage systems in ALL towns

• Ensure Minimum Indus discharge to prevent sea water intrusion

Wetlands – Restore and Preserve

Where we are ?• Constitute 8.5% of land area• Recognized by Ramsar for

sustaining regional ecological processes and global biodiversity

• 4 regions :• (Northern alpine / Salt Range /

Central Indus and Makran Coastal)

• 22 different types covering a total of 220 wetlands

• Under threat from water pollution and climate change

Rising to the challenge ….

• Recognize as critically important ecosystems delivering multiple benefits :

– Watersheds for reservoirs– Regulation of water quality and quantity– Natural habitat for various birds and fish – Storehouses and sustainers of

biodiversity– Tourism and recreation– Blue Carbon Storage– Biodiversity protection

• Expand protection with proper management planning

Air – clean and breathableWhere we are ?

• Deteriorating air quality in all big cities

• Air pollution is estimated to be 20 times higher than WHO standards

• Indoor air pollution (biomass fuels) is also a big issue

• High and rising direct & indirect economic costs– Transport, industry, energy and

deforestation the main sources of air pollution

• Choking our population with slow poisoning ?

Rising to the challenge …… • Clean and affordable fuels – CNG

/LPG / Cleaner gasoline• Clean-up Transport / Vehicles

– Retirement of polluting vehicles– Establish and implement vehicle

manufacturing standards– Improve traffic

management/pedestrian/cycle paths – Vehicle check up system for air

pollution – Yearly certificates

• Mass Transit Systems – PP Partners• Urban forestry sinks• Air monitoring system in all

major cities• Strict enforcement of industrial

standards with incentives (SMART)

Energy – Affordable and sustainableWhere we are ?

• A low GHG emitter but poised for major growth

• 15 fold increase expected in next 40 years

• Shift to coal powered electricity generation (imported + Thar coal)

• Huge losses in distribution and transmission

• Inefficiencies in industry and household use

• A cleaner growth is possible

Rising to the challenge …..• Clean Coal power generation the priority

(Imported + Indigenous)– Get “best available clean coal process

(transport/handling/usage) and technologies” and capitalize on carbon credits

– Carbon Capture and Storage options• Enhance share of RE in national grid mix:

– Wind Power in south wind corridor– Solar power -solar thermal / tubewell pumps

– Small hydro potential in KPK/NAs

• Nuclear and Large Hydro as clean energy• Energy Conservation – “win-win”

– Energy labeling , Smart Grids – Energy audits and ESSCOs for buildings– Inefficient Tube well replacement– Solar water geysers program– Consumer awareness building program

• Efficiency enhancements of power plant

Buildings – Livable, affordable and green

• Shift towards efficient building designs– Large potential for energy savings

• Establish and comply with Green building codes• ESSCO’s concept with carbon crediting to be

employed:» Energy efficiency construction» Efficient lighting» Insulation enhancement» Solar water heating» Natural lighting maximizing

Agriculture – Producing more with less

• Enhance efficiency of irrigation Water use • Conservation / Canal lining• Hill torrent irrigation system • Rain water harvesting• Solar powered water pumping• Recycle/reuse agriculture water

• Expand Organic farming and reduce intensive pesticide use– IPM, biological pest management

• Undertake responsive land use planning – Control urban encroachments

• Develop Climate resistant crop varieties

Waste – Manage + profit to “zero” waste

• Develop integrated waste mgmt plan targeting “zero” waste :– Waste collection, handling and disposal including recycling /

reuse– Utilization for energy + fertilizers + carbon credits– Localized action – facilitative finance

• Public private mechanism• Ban on plastic bags

– Strict enforcement with alternate reusable or biodegradable bags manufacturing

• Shared hospital waste incineration• E-waste – regulate for disposal

Forestry – Restore and expandWhere we are ?

• Highest rate of deforestation (1.8-2%)

– Coniferous forest decline (40000 ha/year)

• Low area coverage of forests (Less than 5%)

• Low survival rates - afforestation campaigns

• Poor valuation of forest eco-services

• Precious Mangrove forests under threat from fuelwood use pressure, although– Largest found in any arid climate– Coastal protectors

Rising to the challenge……• Aim to double the country’s

dismal forest cover in 5 years• True Forest valuation to be done

• Timber, watersheds, biodiversity, carbon sinks, flood protection

• Public-private mechanisms – REDD+ through proper regulations– Community based stewardship

• Tackle timber mafias • Promote non-traditional forestry

– Urban / Riverine / Catchment / Mangroves / Farm forests

• Halt conversion of forest lands• Provide alternate fuels

Biodiversity – Preserving nature’s gifts

• Commit to a comprehensive valuation / inventory of our treasure of biodiversity (flora/fauna/threatened species with ranking)

– Snow Leopard / Markhors / Houbara Bustard / Blind Dolphin / Green Turtles / Tragopan pheasants

• Need to document and preserve our natural heritage for future generations

• Community engagement/empowerment for management of natural treasures– True custodians and stakeholders

• Treat genetic diversity as global assets

National Parks / Green Areas Repositories of biodiversity and living “lungs”

• Translate from “paper” to efficiently manage eco parks– Eco tourism promotion– Medicinal plants– Trophy hunting for conservation– Community based management

• Public parks for each small town with public-private management– Eco parks or safari parks for entertainment– Public land to be leased

Climate Change – Adapt and mitigate

• Transform from “Most Vulnerable” to “Most Adaptive”– Mainstream climate risks + costs into decision

making– Vulnerability mapping of country to understand

the challenge– Climate proof existing infrastructure– Climate resilient development for the future– Community based adaptation schemes

• Climate Fund Development – Leverage funds for adaptation/mitigation

Environmental Awareness

• Environmental education to start at primary level

• Inform and motivate public :– “Green Youth” volunteers program / Clean up

classes in school – Responsible custodians of nature

– Utilize religious platforms - message of sustainable consumption and conservation

– Encourage Media to promote sustainable values

Finally..Environmental Governance

• Environment to be placed at core of the PTI development agenda– Strong EIA enforcement / Government to lead

• Commit to include “environmental rights” as basic human rights under constitution

• “Green Benches” – institutionally support with knowledge based network

• Technical cadres to be set up at Ministry level

Selling the PTI “Green” Agenda

• Shift towards a “new” alternate economy built upon parameters defined :

– Promise of clean air and clean water to people

– Deliver “green” jobs with benefits to people all across Pakistan

“Green jobs” possibilities ?…..huge !

Green Jobs …… reality check !

In UK – a Green Economy of GBP 122 billions a reality of 2011-12

•(Source “Green Economy – A success story)

Almost a million “Green Jobs” have been created in an, otherwise weak, economy

•Almost equal to financial services •More than telecom sector

In USA… growth of green jobs nearly two and a half times faster than overall jobs

(between 1998 and 2007 in USA (PEW Report)

3.1 million green jobs created in 2010-11 (BLS Survey 2012)

1. Renewable promotion2. Energy efficiency

improvements 3. Pollution control and waste

recycle / reuse4. Organic agriculture,

sustainable forestry5. Environmental education

Green Jobs …… reality check !

Five Million “Green” Jobs

in 5 years

An alternate growth pathway

Clean, Sustainable, Achievable

Financing the transition…..

• No “money from the sky”– Set “green” priorities for internal financing after CBA !– Mostly incremental financing

• Re-align PSDP financing– Prioritize “freed fiscal space” towards a green focus !

• Public-private partnerships – Capitalize on “win-win” investment opportunities

• Leverage through a “Green Development Fund”– Tie up with global funds (GCF, REDD+, Bilateral donors)

Delivering Hope – With Passion and Planning !

Sar-sabzPakistan