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Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global Economy
Перспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной
экономике
Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012
Arnaud Leclercq
Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners
Клуб Триалог предоставляет действующим членам скидку в размере 10 % на продление членства в 2013-2014 гг. в случае, если взнос будет оплачен до 30 ноября 2012 г.:
ПРОДЛЕНИЕ ЧЛЕНСТВА В КЛУБЕ
2013-2014
ПЕРИОД ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНОЕ ИНДИВИДУАЛЬНОЕ (С УЧЕТОМ 10% СКИДКИ
КОРПОРАТИВНОЕ КОРПОРАТИВНОЕ С УЧЕТОМ 10% СКИДКИ
01.01.13 – 31.12.13 (1 ГОД)
25,000 РУБ. 22,500 РУБ. 38,000 РУБ. 34,200 РУБ.
01.01.13 – 31.12.14 (2 ГОДА)
45,000 РУБ. 40,500 РУБ. 65,000 РУБ. 58,500 РУБ.
The Trialogue Club will be happy to grant its members who decided to extend their membership for 2013-2014 with a 10% discount for the annual membership fee in case the payment will be made before November 30th
EXTEND YOUR CLUB MEMBERSHIP FOR
2013-2014
PERIOD INDIVIDUAL INDIVIDUAL (WITH 10% DISCOUNT)
CORPORATIVE CORPORATIVE (WITH 10% DISCOUNT)
01.01.13 – 31.12.13 (1YEAR)
25,000 RUB 22,500 RUB 38,000 RUB 34,200 RUB
01.01.13 – 31.12.14 (2 YEARS)
45,000 RUB 40,500 RUB 65,000 RUB 58,500 RUB
Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global Economy
Перспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной
экономике
Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012
Arnaud Leclercq
Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners
Russian economy is now recovering from 2008-2009
Growth
Growth was above 4.5% last two years and should be above 3.8% this year
Budget
Last 12 years: mushrooming expenditures fuelled by 388% increase of oil prices between 2000 & 2008.
By 2015, Russia might face a current account deficit
Employment
Unemployment went down to 5.2% in August 2012, which is historically low.
Increase of social expenditures had positive results.
Inflation & competitiveness
Increase of social expenditures did not create inflation. In fact, it’s decreasing since 2008 and stabilised at 6.5%.
International trade During the first months of 2012, the trade surplus declined In 2013 & 2014, Russia will face the economic slowdown of its main economic partners.
Financial sector From June 2011 until June 2012, MinFin and CB have in fact financed 40% of the volume of credit increase.
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Quick overlook on major economic aspects:
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Three aspects are creating some uncertainty for the near future:
Russia’s budget is still extremely vulnerable to oil price swings
General economic slowdown in the world.
Impact of shale gas resource
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
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Investment climate should be improved
There should be positive & important signs for investors
Russia starts to lean a bit more East
Russian business should talk directly to EM
Economy is growing 3.8% - Capital outflows are still high
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RUSSIA & THE EURO CRISIS
Russian authorities have contrarian views: Support the construction of the EU (MID) Criticism of the Eurozone (Kremlin)
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October 25 President V. Putin at the Valdai Club:
“EU is not a true Federalism and has all inconvenient without the advantages”
ALC 20.11.2012
The cost of keeping the Euro vs the cost of exiting
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Russia, a Eurasian alternative centre of economic power
In its History, Russian has never been as strong as when it accepted to look East
Its relations with the West were an accumulation of wars, misunderstandings, humiliations
The true disconnection between the West and Russia is recent
Conversely, every time Russia based its equilibrium and strength on Asia and Eurasia, it succeeded in a much easier way
Recent partnerships with the East are doing well and remain promising
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Recent partnerships with the East remain promising
New pipelines to Japan and Korea New silk road Arctic oil & gas reserves Good relationships with Central Asia States and India Diplomatic warmth with Japan All frontiers issues with China now solved
By all means, Russia has to assume its Eurasian identity
Developing countries start to cooperate directly between one another
Russia can be more than a facilitator between the West and the East
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