Prospectiva de Largo Plazo con el Modelo IFs - Barry hughes

La importancia de la perspectiva del futuro para el Perú y Latinoamérica

Foro Internacional:

Barry Hughes Director del Pardee Center for International Futures, Universidad de Denver

Autor del modelo prospectivo IFs, además de asesor del National Intelligence Council de USA

LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS)

March 28, 2014

Lima, Peru

Barry B. Hughes Frederick S. Pardee Center

University of Denver

THE PARDEE CENTER AND THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) SYSTEM

• Frederick S. Pardee Center at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver

• IFs developed over a 35+ year period

• Focus is on long-term, integrated scenario development

• Have produced Patterns of Potential Human Progress series: Poverty, Education, Health, Infrastructure, and Governance

3

INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) USERS

• United Nations Environment Programme: Global Environment Outlook 4

• United Nations Human Development Reports: HDRs 2012 and 2013

• European Union Commission: New Economy and Renewable Energy Projects

• United States National Intelligence Council Reports to the President: Global Trends 2020, 2025, 2030

• Others include: World Bank, Peru CEPLAN, Western Cape Provincial Government, New Partnership for African Development, Population Services International, United States Institute of Peace, Google Public Data Explorer

4

THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES SYSTEM DESIGN ELEMENTS

• 186 countries

• Integrated multi-issue, long-term

• User interface for data and scenario analysis

• Transparent/open, available at:

5

Basic Features

pardee.du.edu

PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES


BLOCK DIAGRAM OF IFS

Demographics

Education Economics Health

Infrastructure Energy

Agriculture Environment Technology

Governance Government Finance International Politics


FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL

SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE

PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS

ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE

IFs available at pardee.du.edu

Let’s look at it


TREND ANALYSIS: DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPOWERMENT


2010 2030

TREND ANALYSIS: ECONOMIC GROWTH


5

10

15

20

25

GDP per Capita (PPP) History plus Forecast

Thousand 2

005 D

ollars

Year1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Argentina Bolivia Chile Peru

TREND ANALYSIS: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT


0.64

0.66

0.68

0.70

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

HDI New (2010 Reformulation)

Index

Year

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

2030

Amer-Carib Amer-Central Amer-South

TREND ANALYSIS: ENERGY PRODUCTION


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Latin America: Energy Production by Type

Billion B

arr

els

Oil E

quiv

ale

nt

Year2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear OthRenew

BENCHMARKING: INFANT MORTALITY


Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Colombia

Cuba

Peru

Venezuela

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000

Benchmarking Infant Mortality

Infa

nt M

ort

alit

y p

er

1000 B

irth

s

GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

BENCHMARKING: EDUCATION


Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Cuba

Ecuador

Peru

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Benchmarking Years of Formal Education

Ed

uca

tio

n Y

ea

rs o

f P

op

ula

tio

n,

15

+ Y

ea

rs O

ld

GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

SCENARIO ANALYSIS: GREENHOUSE GASES


400

450

500

550

600

Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere, Parts per Million

Part

s p

er

Million

Year

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20502055

20602065

20702075

20802085

20902095

2100

Markets First Policy FIrst Security First Sustainability First

SCENARIO ANALYSIS: PERU’S ECONOMIC GROWTH


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Peruvian Scenarios: GDP per Capita at PPP

Thousand 2

005 D

ollars

Year

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

2030

Base Case Combined Interventions

Combined Interventions: 10% higher workforce participation; 20% higher export value; 30% higher FDI inflows


RECAP: FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS

ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL

SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE

PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS

ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE

Learn more and try basic system: Pardee.du.edu

Marzo, 2014

Barry B. Hughes

Gracias

Frederick S. Pardee Center University of Denver

Prospectiva de Largo Plazo con el Modelo IFs - Barry hughes

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