agrimondeAs recent food riots have reminded us only too well, food and agricultureare still crucial issues. In addition to this urgent problem, we must addressthree challenges: food security, in both quantity and quality, on a planetthat will host 9 billion people in 2050; protection of the environment andnatural resources; and the growing scarcity of fossil fuels. With this inmind, INRA and CIRAD seized the opportunity in early 2006 to work ondeveloping a means of analysing potential balances in global food andagricultural systems by 2050. This document provides an illustrated sum-mary of the main lessons drawn from the first phase of the foresight studynow known as “Agrimonde”. More work is called for to meet a twofoldobjective – provide France with the capacity to discuss global food and

agricultural issues, and identify the key research priorities to be tackled by INRA andCIRAD, more generally by the international agricultural research community as awhole. To feed the world in 2050 in a sustainable way, we need to understand, planahead, and act. Research should debate issues, define priorities and make a strongcommitment.

Marion Guillou Patrice DebréPresident of INRA Chair, CIRAD Board of Trustees

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rial � Key figures

Between 1961 and 2003• The world’s population grew from 3.1 to 6.3 billion.

• Cultivated land surfaces (1.5 billion hectares in 2003) increased by 13%, while irrigated land doubled.

• The cultivated land area needed to feed one person has been halved (from 0.45 to 0.25 hectares).

• Average plant yields doubled,from 8600 to 19200 kcal/ha/day.While the trend can be observed throughout the planet, yield gaps between world regions have gone up. From 1 to 2 in 1961,they stand at 1 to 3.4 today.

In 2050, there will be nearly 9 billion people on the planet.

Can the world’s agricultural systems provide enough food for all of them,while adhering to the principles of sustainable development, from an economic,social and environmental standpoint?

� What lies at stake?

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Agrimonde, a joint initiative launched in early 2006 by INRA and CIRAD, is a foresight discus-sion platform dealing with global challenges in food and agriculture.These challenges can besummed up as follows: feeding nearly 9 billion people in 2050 while preserving the ecosys-tems that are also expected to provide other products and services (such as soil and waterconservation, biodiversity, carbon storage, flood regulation, bioenergies and biomaterials). Towhich issues must agricultural research give priority? With the Agrimonde initiative, INRA and

CIRAD are shaping the means to contribute to internation-al debate on food, agricultural and environmental issues ina unique and structured fashion, and prepare the groundfor future directions in research.

The Agrimonde foresight platform is unique in combining quantitative and qualitative analyses within the framework of an interactive and iterative process.

• Quantitative analyses rely on Agribiom, a specially-developed tool.With Agribiom, food biomass production and its food and non-food uses can beevaluated for a country, a group of countries, or the entire planet. Production,uses and exchanges are expressed using a single unit, the kilocalorie.

• Qualitative analyses are made possible by a specific structure comprising aproject team, a working group, and a committee of experts consulted for advice.

In the 2006-2008 phase, Agrimonde relied on:

A PROJECT TEAM composed of INRA and CIRAD scientistsand coordinated by Bernard Hubert (GIP IFRAI / FI4IAR):Maryse Aoudaï (INRA), Jean-Marc Chaumet (INRA),Bruno Dorin (CIRAD; overseeing the quantitative approach),Tristan Le Cotty (CIRAD), Sandrine Paillard (INRA; head of the INRA foresight unit),Tévécia Ronzon (INRA) and Sébastien Treyer (AgroParisTech-Engref ;overseeing qualitative analysis).

A WORKING GROUP comprising specialists from a wide range of backgrounds, skills and disciplines, in chargeof scenario definition and result analysis: Bernard Bachelier,Danielle Barret, Pierre-Marie Bosc, Jean-Pierre Butault,Jean-Christophe Debar, Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, GérardGhersi, Francis Delpeuch, Fabrice Dreyfus, Michel Griffon,Christian Hoste, Denis Lacroix, Jacques Loyat, Michel Petitand Jean-Louis Rastoin.

A COMMITTEE OF EXPERTS representing some twenty institutes, consulted for their opinions and advice (discussion of results and their consequences,general direction of the work).

Under the supervision of a STEERING COMMITTEEmade up of representatives from INRA and CIRAD management (Patrick Caron, Catherine Esnouf,Hervé Guyomard, Bernard Hubert and Alain Weil).

Agrimonde, a foresight discussion tool on global food and agriculture issues

The people behind Agrimonde

Pivot irrigation system in a cornfield, France.

©Inra - Jean-M

arie Bossennec

• Apparent food supply: ratio between the amount of foodstuff available to feed the inhabitants of a region, and the number of inhabitants in that region. The numerator is computed as follows:

initial stock + production + imports - exports - final stock- seed - animal feed - non-food use - post-harvest losses.Any waste, especially at the final consumer stage, is included in the numerator. The true amounts ingested are thus lower than the apparent food supply.• FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations• IAASTD: International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development(group of experts in agriculture created at the prompting of the United Nations and the World Bank,and which mobilised over 600 experts from 110 countries from 2004 to 2007).• FI4IAR: French Initiative for International Agricultural Research (created by CIRAD and INRA in 2007).• kcal: kilocalorie.• MEA: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (international group of experts on ecosystems, created at the initiative of the United Nations, which, from 2001 to 2005, mobilised over 2000 experts from 95 countries).• OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Glossary

The Agribiom quantitative toolAgribiom is a quantitative tool that generates reports, expressed in kilocalories, comparing food biomass resources and their uses, for user-defined geographic entities (a country, a group of countries, or the planet).These reports may be retrospective (reconstruction of the 1961-2003 period using FAO data) or prospective (simulations in the framework of scenarios).

When used prospectively, a time period must be defined for the simulation. Next, hypothe-ses for biomass resources and uses are formulated. In terms of uses, these hypothesesinvolve populations, diets (available plant, animal and aquatic calories) and uses other thanhuman food consumption (seed, animal feed, bioenergies, biomaterials, losses, etc.). As forresources, hypotheses include land use (cultivated surfaces, pastureland, forest, etc.), pro-ductivity of cultivated surfaces (in plant calories), and processes transforming plant into ani-mal calories. Hypotheses for international trade (categories of traded calories and their geo-graphic origin) then make it possible to determine, for each region under study and for theworld, the balance between the uses and resources of different types of food biomass(plant, animal and aquatic).

Agribiom’s principal assets are its exhaustiveness (nearly all countries and products aretaken into account), ease of use (transparency and robustness of the tool owing, in partic-ular, to the use of a single unit, the kilocalorie) and interactivity (the effect of changing ahypothesis, e.g., in terms of yields, can be measured immediately). Moreover, evaluation ofanimal food products (meat, milk, eggs, etc.) is based on the econometric estimation of ani-mal production functions using past data on pastureland, the consumption of the relevantfeed types, etc. This original approach makes it possible to trim down the number ofhypotheses needed in the context of prospective use and, most importantly, ensures consis-tency between animal food products and the resources needed to produce them.Agribiomcan be used not only to characterise the endpoint of the time period for a given scenario,but also to assess the sensitivity of this endpoint’s characteristics to any given hypotheses,identify the levers that can be used to reduce the caloric deficit of a given area, bring differ-ent disciplines into play, etc.

Rice terraces, Indonesia.

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How Agrimondeworks• In the first stage, the working group defines the basic principlesof each scenario, then expresses them as quantitative hypotheses,that is, as entry variables for the Agribiom tool. The time period and geo-graphical classification of countries are set at this stage.

• In the second stage, Agribiom is used to quantify food biomassresources and their uses, both at the selected geographic scale and forthe whole planet. This stage determines the food situation - surplus ordeficit - of each region under study. It also allows scientists to assess ifresources are enough to satisfy needs on a world scale (and to adjust theirinitial hypotheses if necessary).

• In the third stage, quantitative scenarios defined in the earlierstages are analysed and completed by the working group and thecommittee of experts who formulate additional qualitative hypotheses.

This stage has three objectives:- First, to test consistency using two main criteria: the basic principlesbehind the scenarios, and the qualitative hypotheses needed to remaincoherent.- Next, to compare the different quantitative scenarios for two reasons: toidentify the lessons drawn, with a view to describing contrasting futures,and to formulate qualitative hypotheses so that these scenarios corre-spond to distinct evolution paths.- Finally, this phase identifies the stakes and points of action, with the for-mulation of qualitative hypotheses that are integrated in the quantitativescenarios.

This qualitative analysis may lead to the revision of some quantitativehypotheses in the first stage and reusing Agribiom to quantify food bio-mass resources and uses anew.

• The full scenarios defined at the end of this iterative process canthen be described, analysed and discussed (from the hypotheses tothe lessons learned).

Fig � Food calories per cultivated agricultural hectare | 1961-2003 (kcal/day/ha)

Source: B. Dorin’s computations based on FAO data

Analysing the past, Fig � Cultivated agricultural land | 1961-2003 (in million ha)

Source: based on FAO data

OECD | Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1990)

LA | Latin America

SSA | Sub-Saharan Africa

MENA | Middle East and North Africa

Ex USSR | former USSR

ASIA | Asia

Source: B. Dorin’s computations based on FAO data

Fig � Import-Export Balance for food products | 1961-2003 (Gkcal/day)

visualising the futureWithin the Agrimonde foresight study,Agribiom was first used in the retrospective analy-sis of patterns over the 1961 to 2003 period for each of the MEA regions, to identify char-acteristics, trends and possible departures.The six regions studied were the OECD (1990),Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa,the former Soviet Union, and Asia (see world map on the next page).

To give an example, the graphs shown here describe the movementsin cultivated agricultural land (figure �), food production from plantsources per cultivated agricultural hectare (figure �), and the import-export balance for food biomass (figure �).

Cultivated surfaces hardly increased (+ 0.3% per year for the planet).Most of the growth in agricultural production came from improvedyields. These increased in all areas of the globe, but at different rates.Meanwhile, the net balances for food biomass trade (exports minusimports) are starkly contrasting. While the OECD and Latin Americaenjoy a large surplus of food calories, net imports increased steadilyover the past four decades for sub-Saharan Africa and the MiddleEast-North Africa region.

Agrimonde GO (AGO) and Agrimonde 1 (AG1),the two scenarios discussed, have the same endpoint (2050) and the same hypotheses for demographic growth in each region and migration between regions.They essentially differ in the projectedtrajectories for regional food and agricultural systems between now and 2050, which reflect two contrasted views of the world.

a positive trend scenario.AGO represents an extension of historical movements in foodbiomass production and uses in a fully-liberalised world.Priority is given to economic growth and the immediate mate-

rial well-being of people. Inthis scenario, environmen-tal problems are onlyaddressed when theybecome too acute. AGO isbased on the MillenniumEcosystem Assessmentscenario “Global orches-tration”.

AGO

a normative departure scenario.AG1 seeks to ensure the sustainability of agricultural and food systems,and explores regional trajectories of changes that could help meet this goal.In each region, average apparent food supplies are equal to 3000 kcal/person/day, 500 of which come from animal and aquatic sources. This sin-gle standard implies a 25% reduction in apparent individual consumptionin the developed OECD countries, and a corresponding increase in sub-Saharan Africa. Ecosystems and environmental issues are managed proac-tively.

Two of many possible scenarios

AG1

©Inra - Christophe M

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Market stall, France.

Global forest cover is practically identical in the two scenarios,remaining stable at its 2003 level. Cultivated surfaces increasein both, but to a greater degree in Agrimonde 1 (+575 millionhectares, or +38%) than in Agrimonde GO (+327 millionhectares, or +21%). Pastureland shrinks substantially in AG1(-481 million hectares, or -14%), but increases in AGO (+258million hectares or +8%). Changes in these three uses varydepending on the region.

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Ex USSR | former USSR

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Scenarios AGO and AG1 are based on the assumption that the world populationin 2050 will be nearly 9 billion, with moderateinternational migration of some100 millionpersons over the 2000-2050 period.

Asia will have 4.4 billion inhabitants by 2050, but population growth will behighest in sub-Saharan Africa (+152%,from 0.66 billion in 2000 to 1.66 billionin 2050).

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Yields in plantfood calories (in kcal/day/ha)AGO supposes that yields will palpably increase by 2050, albeit at lowerrates than those observed over the 1961-2000 period except in tworegions, the former USSR and sub-Saharan Africa. For the planet as awhole, yields should increase by 1.14% per year in the AGO scenario, orhalf as fast as in the 1961-2000 period (2.01%).Annual yield gains will bemuch more modest in the AG1 scenario, at a global average of 0.14%, andranging from 0% in Asia and the OECD countries to a maximum of 1.33%in the former Soviet Union.

in three figures

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The AGO scenario corresponds to a 19% increase of apparent average food supply at theworld level between 2003 (3015 kcal/day/per, 498 of which from animal sources) and 2050(3588 kcal/day/person, 834 of that from animal sources). In all regions, there is an increasein the consumption of animal products and in their share in food rations. AG1, meanwhile,corresponds to a stabilisation of global apparent food supply per person, with a slightdecrease in food from animal sources and in their weight in food rations (from 17% in 2003to 15% in 2050). Moreover, trends are markedly different from region to region. Total supplyand supply of animal products decrease sharply in the OECD countries (-953 kcal/day/per or-24%, and -736 kcal/day/per or -62%, respectively), while they go up just as sharply in sub-Saharan Africa (+634 kcal/day/per or +27%, and +344 kcal/day/per or +255%).

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Feeding the world thanks to economic growth,with the environment playing second fiddleAGO

Feeding the planetsustainably usingsimultaneously

supply and demand levers

AG1

In the Agrimonde GO scenario, economic growth isstrong in all regions, particularly in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the countries of the formerUSSR, under the twofold influence of liberalisedtrade and stronger economic cooperation betweennations. Investments in research, innovation,educa-tion, health and infrastructure, especially in thedeveloping world, are significant. Great technicalprogress has spread throughout the planet. Povertyhas been substantially eroded.

Agricultural production has increased substantially in allregions,owing first to improved yields (see fig �) but also theexpansion in the area of cultivated land (+330 millionhectares between 2003 and 2050) and pastureland (+260

million hectares over the same period). Deforestation ratesare however much lower than in the 1960-2000 period (see fig �). Agricultural production systems are increasinglysimilar, based on an industrial model with heavy use ofengines and machines, fertiliser and crop treatment products,to the detriment of local know-how and diversity, particular-ly in terms of cultivated species. Irrigation is a key factor inimproving yields.

The increase in agricultural production makes it possible tomeet the substantially higher demand for food, a result ofdemographics and the general improvement of living stan-dards.The number of undernourished persons has gone downby 2.5 in 50 years. In all regions, calories from animal sourcesrepresent a growing share of food rations (see fig �).

Global economic growth comes hand in hand with a markedincrease in energy needs, which are met with the help of

Agrimonde 1 is a entirely different scenario.Under thejoint effect of increasing climate change and the rep-etition of food and energy crisis situations at the startof the study period (2010-2020), the world reacts bysetting forth conditions for the planet’s sustainabledevelopment.

Global economic growth is propelled by the growth of devel-oping countries, which in turn is founded on the developmentof the primary sector and rural areas. This development isestablished via a cumulative virtuous cycle. International aidand national fund transfers make it possible to launch and sus-tain initial investments, particularly in infrastructure for stor-age, transport, industrial processing, education, and health. Inthis favourable context, rural household incomes increase, and

investments and technical progress. Some 10% ofthe world’s electricity is produced using renewableenergy sources including biomass. The latter is alsoused for the large-scale production of biofuels, whichrequires enormous surfaces of land. Non-food use ofland has increased six fold in 50 years.

In this scenario, all conditions are set for an explosionin global environmental problems, such as climatechange or the overuse of marine resources.Nonetheless, plans are not necessarily made toaddress them. Environmental concerns come secondto the more pressing issue of immediate food andenergy needs. As such, environmental problems areonly tackled reactively. Despite available financialresources and a favourable institutional context,there is no real push to cut greenhouse gas emis-sions.

the resulting savings are then used to fund newinvestments. The rise in rural household incomes indeveloping countries also leads to more food choic-es and intake.

More precisely, apparent food supply in 2050 is3000 kcal/day/person in all regions, of which 2500comes from plants (see fig �). Regional variationshide behind this average. In sub-Saharan Africa,apparent food supply palpably increases as a resultof agricultural development. Meanwhile, it decreas-es by nearly a quarter in the developed OECD coun-tries owing to two mechanisms: the reduction oflosses and waste at distribution and final consump-tion levels, and the greater effectiveness of nutritionpolicies. Diets are more diverse due to the influenceof several factors ranging from unique cultural char-acteristics to nutritional policies.

The growth in agricultural production that wouldensure an adequate food supply for the planet is

much less pronounced in the scenario Agrimonde 1than it is in Agrimonde GO. While yields increaseglobally, they are distributed quite unevenly.There islittle increase in the regions of the OECD, Asia, andthe Middle East and North Africa, but a substantialin Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa (see fig �).Cultivated land surfaces expand considerably, by alittle under 580 million hectares in 50 years, that istwice as much as in the AGO scenario.This increasein cultivated surfaces occurs almost exclusively tothe detriment of pastureland, whereas forest coverremains practically constant (see fig �).Agriculturalsurfaces are cultivated in a markedly different man-ner compared with today’s systems or with the AGOtrend scenario.

Unlike the former – and this is a fundamental differ-ence – yields and growth are gleaned from a varietyof sources. Innovation comes in many guises and is both generic and specific. Local know-how and

services from ecosystems are optimised.This processfavours technological choices based on “ecologicalintensification” of practices that limit the negativeimpact of agriculture on different environmentalaspects. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultur-al activities are cut, soil and water resources are pro-tected, and biodiversity is maintained and encour-aged.

In the Middle East and North Africa, sub-SaharanAfrica and Asia, nonetheless, local agricultural pro-duction is not enough to meet domestic needs. Thedeficit is compensated by imports from the otherthree regions, as part of secure and regulated inter-national trade under the aegis of the UN FoodSecurity agency. International rules provide forstrong exceptions to the free trade principle byincluding environmental considerations and allow-ing for the protection of less productive local agricul-tures during their developmental phase.

in two tales

Wheat harvest at an experimental agroforest lot, France.

©Inra - Christian Dupraz

Three challengesfor Agrimonde

The radical departure described in Agrimonde 1 relies on the convergence ofapparent food consumption to 3000 kcal/day/person, 2500 of which willcome from plants.This single standard masks the different paths taken in thevarious regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, economic development, particularlyagricultural development, should be dynamic enough to lead to increasedincomes and more and more diverse food consumption. Meanwhile, in theOECD countries, apparent food consumption and the share occupied by ani-mal products will have gone down, despite a rise in per capita income. Arethese changes possible, or even credible? Here are three points for consider-ation in the guise of first answers.

• Food consumption evolves in three phases as incomes rise. First, there is aquantitative increase in all food types.This is followed by a change in the foodbasket, with an increased proportion of animal products, carbohydrates andsaturated fats. Finally, the third phase shows a stabilisation in the composi-tion of macronutrients.We can reasonably assume that a very large majorityof households in the developed countries and some emerging countries willbe in the third phase of this three phase cycle by 2050. Moreover, more than20% of the global population will be made up of persons aged 60 and up

(they now make up 10%).A reduction in average food consumption in developed countries could be thought more plau-sible considering the ageing world population, as older persons have lower calorie requirements.

• The decrease in apparent food supply to 3000 kcal/day/person does not necessarily mean that less food is ingested, pro-vided that there is a concomitant reduction in losses and waste.They can amount to a significant number at the distribu-tion and final consumption stages – around 800 kcal/day/person – and essentially occur in developed countries.At pres-ent, consumer behaviour aimed at reducing losses and waste is not common. Such behaviour could become mainstreamonce there is greater awareness of the negative consequences of waste on health and the environment, relayed throughrelevant public policies.

• To add to this last point, the AG1 scenario presumes that public authorities will have taken the necessary measures tofight overconsumption and the diseases associated with it.This is a major challenge. Right now, there are few such meas-ures, and they are based primarily on educating and informing consumers. These are not enough. They must be includedin more ambitious public health policies that rely on a wider range of tools and a deeper understanding of food behav-iour and its relation to health.

Are the changes in food consumption behaviour described in Agrimonde 1 plausible? 1

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Chichicastenango market, Guatemala.

When both scenarios are read, at least three issues come to mind:food consumption behaviour, technological and organisational options for agricultural production, and trade and regulation of agricultural products.

The need to secure international trade in agricultural and agrifood products3Both scenarios end with the same image in 2050: a world divided into two or three regions – the OECD countries, LatinAmerica and the former Soviet Union – enjoying a surplus, and supplying the other three regions with a deficit: Asia, theMiddle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. In both scenarios, the latter three regions cannot meet their domesticneeds despite the increase in local agricultural production, and imports are necessary. Moreover, there will be more importsin 2050 than there are today.

This observation raises the question of how to secure international trade, for two reasons. First, because the deficit in domes-tic production of food calories in net importing countries must be offset regularly, with minimum risks of insufficient interna-tional supply. Next, increases in agricultural food production require a stable international context from the economic, socialand political standpoints. Otherwise, there is a risk of excessive competition from products imported from countries with lowerprices. There are several ways of encouraging greater production and ensuring the security of growing international trade.Without being dogmatic or giving the solution, Agrimonde underscores the need to rationalise the future of agricultural andfood systems by taking the international dimension into account, and more specifically, the issue of international trade in agri-cultural and agrifood products, their security, stability, and relations with international social and environmental regulations.

Technological and organisational choices in agricultural production: options for ecological intensification 2

Strictly speaking, the ecological intensification of agricultural systems as described in AG1 could be defined as agronomy thatmakes optimal use of ecological processes. This “new” agronomy will use less fossil fuels; optimise the capacity of soils tomobilise organic matter through, for example, crop combinations or suitable tilling methods; fight crop enemies using integrat-ed protection and production methods such as auxiliary organisms, crop rotations and organisation; have better resistance to dis-ease through the use of a larger number of species and varieties; and so on. Far from being mired in the past, the image some-times associated with it, ecological intensification will make use of scientific and technical advances by, for instance, usingbiotechnology, remote sensing, or marker-assisted selection. At the same time, it will use traditional knowledge and skills.

Ecological intensification must not be limited to the technical dimension alone.It should also be viewed as a means of social, economic, political and spatial organi-sation, if not more. Two models illustrate the spatial issues analysed here in terms ofthe organisation of natural and agricultural areas:

• The “stratified” model separates cultivated areas from non-cultivated ones in thename of environmental protection. This model requires innovative solutions in orderto limit environmental damage within the productive area. However, most globalenvironmental problems are considered in terms of non-productive areas, and theirresolving can, in extreme cases, turn these areas into sanctuaries.

• An “integrationist” model, meanwhile, combines different types of productive sys-tems within the same area, turning it into a patchwork of ecosystems that are boththe source of market goods and ecological services such as soil preservation, carbonstorage or biodiversity protection. In this second model, production units and smallterritories include a large spectrum of complementary activities such as crop, livestockbreeding and forest. In Latin America, for example, forests are not simply cleared orprotected, but are used for agroforestry in ways adapted to the different local con-texts. In the same way, in the Middle East and North Africa, rangelands are both asource of food for animals and a key element in protecting biodiversity. Althoughsome of them may not be productive according to traditional technical and econom-ic criteria, farms still play a vital social and environmental role, lending full meaningto the concept of multifunctionality. As such, they can legitimately seek public fund-ing in order to ensure, if necessary, their long-term survival.

Dordogne valley, France.

©Inra - Christophe M

aître

A thirty-page summary of the Agrimonde foresight study,in French and English, is available at:http://www.paris.inra.fr/prospective/projets/agrimonde

The full report, in French and English, will be published as a book in the first half of 2010 by éditions QUÆ

Videos of the presentation of the foresight study at the 2009Salon International de l'Agriculture can be viewed here:http://www.inra.fr/audiovisuel/web_tv/rencontres/salon_international_de_l_agriculture_2009/agrimonde

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment website:http://www.millenniumassessment.org/fr/

For more information

In the first two scenarios described in theAgrimonde foresight study, AGO and AG1, welearned that we can feed the world in 2050.There isa second lesson. Feeding the world can be done aspart of the sustainable development of global foodand agricultural systems. To do so, several condi-tions must be met. As these conditions are oftendepartures from prevailing trends, it will not be easy.

The AG1 scenario sketches a path – among otherpaths – towards developing sustainable global foodand agricultural systems. Like all scenarios, it isbased on hypotheses that, if not satisfied, couldimperil the scenario’s feasibility. In this case, the pre-sumption is that growth in developing countries willcome from an agricultural and rural foundation,andthat demographic growth will remain moderate, aswill international migration and the severity of cli-mate change and its effects. AG1 is also based onthree major departures: the reduction of excessivefood consumption and waste; the development ofecologically intensive agriculture; and the securingof international trade in agricultural and agrifoodproducts. These three interdependent factors mustbe considered from several angles - technical,social, economic, political, and so on. They requiresignificant investments, substantial research andR&D efforts, and revamped public policies, both onthe national and international scale.

The issue of food is a complex one, not only in itselfbut also in its relationships with the environment,energy, health, the economic development of ruralareas and developing countries, etc. Such complex-ity should not lead to fear and paralysis, or a busi-ness-as-usual attitude that we now know is not aviable one for humanity. The Agrimonde foresightstudy invites us to go beyond the present situation,and confront and plan for the challenges that lieahead. The initial discussions, in France and on theinternational scene, of the AGO and AG1 scenarios,their results and implications, have already deep-ened the initial debate, led to new hypotheses, andgiven birth to new imagined futures. INRA and

CIRAD have the ambition, if not the duty, to pursue

and escalate their efforts. The establishment of the

Global Partnership for Agriculture and Food Security

(GPAFS) is an impetus, following the FAO summit of

June 2008 organised after the food riots, as well as

the United Nations summit in early 2009. Now is

the time when the world is drawing up actions and

trajectories that will make it possible to meet every

individual’s food, energy and biomaterial needs, to

reduce poverty and inequalities, to contain the

degradation of environmental goods and services.

In a world where resources are rare, perhaps the

rarest of them all is time.

Publication directors: Marion Guillou (INRA),Patrice Debré and Gérard Matheron (CIRAD).Writers: Hervé Guyomard (coordination),Antoine Besse, Bruno Dorin,Sébastien Treyer, Maryse Aoudaï, Jean-Marc Chaumet,Tristan Le Cotty,Sandrine Paillard,Tevecia Ronzon, Sylvie Colleu,Valérie Toureau.

Graphic design and layout: Pascale Inzerillo.Photos: ©Inra, ©Cirad,AGRIMONDE®.Cover illustration: Faire Savoir.

October 2009

And now?

©In

ra -

Chris

toph

e M

aître

Study of environmental factors on large-crop plants, France.

www.inra.fr www.cirad.fr