Projections Methodology

Budget Advisory Council

October 17, 2012

Enrollment History2

Enrollment History3

Size of Kindergartens Increasing

4

5

Class Size by Grade (2011-12)

Projected Capacity Need

6

K-12 Enrollment Projections 2012-2021

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Year

Stu

de

nts

5 Year Linear Regression5 Year Average Rate of Change3 Year Average Rate of ChangeIncrease of 2% Per YearIncrease of 3% Per Year

Projections ProcessBoth a top-down and bottom-up approach

K-12 system total projected using a variety of models Forecast/Regression Average Rate of Change Weighting Choose a model and thus a Grand Total of K-12 students

School level projections based on a 3-year average cohort-survival rate

Total Kindergarten based on average capture from resident live births 5 years prior

School Kindergartens based on 3 year capture average

PreK held constant, based on budget

School-Based Projections

September Membership

2008 to 2012

    1st Day 7th Day Sept. 30  

      % of   % of   % of  Year Level Enrollment Projection Enrollment Projection Enrollment Projection Projection

2012 PreK 337 29.5% 922 80.7% 1,084 94.9% 1,142

  K-5 11,008 97.0% 11,300 99.6% 11,352 100.1% 11,343

  6-8 4,370 97.7% 4,465 99.8% 4,467 99.9% 4,472

  9-12 5,538 96.0% 5,778 100.2% 5,754 99.8% 5,766

  K-12 20,916 96.9% 21,543 99.8% 21,573 100.0% 21,581  PreK-12 21,253 93.5% 22,465 98.9% 22,657 99.7% 22,723

2011 PreK 476 40.4% 972 82.4% 1,044 88.5% 1,179

  K-5 10,626 96.5% 10,925 99.2% 10,928 99.2% 11,015

  6-8 4,081 96.6% 4,180 99.0% 4,171 98.8% 4,223

  9-12 5,473 93.9% 5,687 97.6% 5,702 97.8% 5,828  K-12 20,180 95.8% 20,792 98.7% 20,801 98.7% 21,066  PreK-12 20,656 92.9% 21,764 97.8% 21,845 98.2% 22,245

2010 PreK 367 32.9% 938 84.0% 1,040 93.1% 1,117

  K-5 10,117 98.5% 10,398 101.2% 10,440 101.6% 10,271

  6-8 4,005 99.1% 4,101 101.5% 4,096 101.4% 4,040

  9-12 5,414 95.8% 5,674 100.4% 5,665 100.2% 5,654

  K-12 19,536 97.9% 20,173 101.0% 20,201 101.2% 19,965  PreK-12 19,903 94.4% 21,111 100.1% 21,241 100.8% 21,082

2009 PreK 314 29.7% 881 83.3% 972 91.9% 1,058

  K-5 9,520 99.5% 9,731 101.7% 9,766 102.1% 9,568

  6-8 3,836 96.6% 3,921 98.8% 3,920 98.8% 3,969

  9-12 5,045 91.1% 5,564 100.5% 5,575 100.7% 5,535  K-12 18,401 96.5% 19,216 100.8% 19,261 101.0% 19,072

  PreK-12 18,715 93.0% 20,097 99.8% 20,233 100.5% 20,130

2008 PreK 603 61.2% 819 83.1% 929 94.2% 986

  K-5 8,930 99.8% 9,203 102.8% 9,237 103.2% 8,952

  6-8 3,734 99.1% 3,863 102.5% 3,858 102.4% 3,769

  9-12 4,998 92.8% 5,516 102.4% 5,510 102.3% 5,387  K-12 17,662 97.5% 18,582 102.6% 18,605 102.7% 18,108

  PreK-12 18,265 95.7% 19,401 101.6% 19,534 102.3% 19,094

    Sept. 30, 2012   Difference Percent

      Difference   Sept. 30, Between Change

  Projected   from % of 2011 2011 and 2011 and

School Enrollment Enrollment Projection Projection Enrollment 2012 2012Abingdon 514 543 29 105.6% 505 38 7.5%Arl. Science Focus 574 576 2 100.3% 575 1 0.2%Arlington Traditional 503 497 -6 98.8% 490 7 1.4%Ashlawn 554 577 23 104.2% 489 88 18.0%Barcroft 491 482 -9 98.2% 441 41 9.3%Barrett 555 559 4 100.7% 556 3 0.5%Campbell 460 418 -42 90.9% 435 -17 -3.9%Carlin Springs 587 584 -3 99.5% 583 1 0.2%Claremont 640 676 36 105.6% 578 98 17.0%Drew 607 618 11 101.8% 590 28 4.7%Glebe 534 561 27 105.1% 522 39 7.5%Henry 465 430 -35 92.5% 445 -15 -3.4%Hoffman-Boston 406 402 -4 99.0% 381 21 5.5%Jamestown 640 626 -14 97.8% 597 29 4.9%Key 667 661 -6 99.1% 649 12 1.8%Long Branch 501 488 -13 97.4% 514 -26 -5.1%McKinley 546 559 13 102.4% 501 58 11.6%Nottingham 622 659 37 105.9% 615 44 7.2%Oakridge 710 670 -40 94.4% 671 -1 -0.1%Randolph 445 423 -22 95.1% 431 -8 -1.9%Reed 30 20 -10 66.7% 20 0 0.0%Taylor 728 737 9 101.2% 699 38 5.4%Tuckahoe 706 670 -36 94.9% 685 -15 -2.2%Total Elementary 12,485 12,436 -49 99.6% 11,972 464 3.9%Gunston 792 744 -48 93.9% 733 11 1.5%Jefferson 757 786 29 103.8% 681 105 15.4%Kenmore 789 762 -27 96.6% 741 21 2.8%Swanson 919 967 48 105.2% 865 102 11.8%Williamsburg 972 961 -11 98.9% 903 58 6.4%H-B Woodlawn 222 228 6 102.7% 228 0 0.0%Stratford Program 21 19 -2 90.5% 20 -1 -5.0%Total Middle 4,472 4,467 -5 99.9% 4,171 296 7.1%Arl. Mill Continuation* 123 105 -18 85.4% 123 -18 -14.6%Langston Continuation* 73 58 -15 79.5% 66 -8 -12.1%Wakefield 1,420 1,430 10 100.7% 1,399 31 2.2%Washington-Lee 1,926 1,980 54 102.8% 1,927 53 2.8%Yorktown 1,806 1,754 -52 97.1% 1,776 -22 -1.2%H-B Woodlawn 386 395 9 102.3% 385 10 2.6%Stratford Program 32 32 0 100.0% 26 6 23.1%Total Senior 5,766 5,754 -12 99.8% 5,702 52 0.9%

Grand Total 22,723 22,657 -66 99.7% 21,845 812 3.7%