USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022€¦ · Web viewUSDA Agricultural Projections to 2022 Subject...

United States Department of Agriculture

Office of theChief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Long-term Projections ReportOCE-2013-1

February 2013

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

World Agricultural Outlook Board, ChairEconomic Research ServiceFarm Service AgencyForeign Agricultural ServiceAgricultural Marketing ServiceOffice of the Chief EconomistOffice of Budget and Program AnalysisRisk Management AgencyNatural Resources Conservation ServiceNational Institute of Food and Agriculture

USDA Long-term Projections

75

100

125

150

175

1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Corn yield,bushels per acre

Projected long-term weather-adjusted U.S. corn yield trend starts at 163.5 bushels per acre in 2013

Actualyield

Weather-adjustedtrend yield

163.5

Long-term Projections on the Internet

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022 is available in both pdf and Microsoft Word formats at:

www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/

and also at:

www.ers.usda.gov/publications/oce-usda-agricultural-projections/oce131.aspx

Data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at:

usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192

Information on USDA’s long-term projections process may be found at:

www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baseline-projections/usda-baseline-process.aspx.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baseline-projections/usda-baseline-process.aspx

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baseline-projections/usda-baseline-process.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2013-1, 105 pp.

Abstract

This report provides projections for the agricultural sector to 2022. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. The 2008 Farm Act was assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2012, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.

Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to high prices for many farm commodities, in part due to effects of weather such as the 2012 U.S. drought. In response, global agricultural production of most major crops is projected to increase in 2013. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall in 2013 in response to high feed costs, reduced producer returns, and drought in the Southern Plains of the United States over the past two years. Meat production then increases in response to improved returns. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. Thus, following reductions from projected record levels in 2013, farm cash receipts and the value of U.S. agricultural exports grow beyond 2015. U.S. retail food price increases average less than the overall rate of inflation in 2014-22, largely reflecting higher livestock production that limits consumer meat price increases.

Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, corn yields, soybean yields, biofuel, ethanol, biodiesel, trade, farm income, food prices, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA

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Washington, D.C. 20250-3812

USDA Long-term Projections

February 2013

i

ContentsPage

Background Regarding USDA Long-term Projections...................................................................3

USDA Contacts for Long-term Projections.....................................................................................4

Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................4

Introduction and Projections Overview...........................................................................................1

Key Assumptions and Implications.................................................................................................2

Macroeconomic Assumptions..........................................................................................................6

Agricultural Trade..........................................................................................................................16

U.S. Crops......................................................................................................................................56

U.S. Livestock................................................................................................................................82

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators:Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures............................91

List of Tables.................................................................................................................................99

Features in this Report

Page

Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks.....................................................................................................19

China’s Cotton Policy: Global Impacts.........................................................................................38

Weather-adjusted Trend Yields for Corn and Soybeans................................................................57

ii USDA Long-term Projections, February 2013

Background Regarding USDA Long-term Projections

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a departmental consensus on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.

The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation and other specific assumptions. Critical long-term assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural supply and demand. Normal weather is assumed. Changes in any of these assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.

The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2012 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2012.

The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflects a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service had the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2013 iii

USDA Contacts for Long-term Projections

Questions regarding these projections may be directed to:

Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, e-mail: [email protected]

Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, e-mail: [email protected]

David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, e-mail: [email protected]

Acknowledgments

The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributions to the long-term projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report.

iv USDA Long-term Projections, February 2013

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

Introduction and Projections OverviewThis report provides longrun projections for the agricultural sector to 2022. Major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term global economic growth and population trends. Projections cover production and consumption for agricultural commodities, global agricultural trade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

The projections are a conditional scenario based on specific assumptions about the macroeconomy, agricultural and trade policies, the weather, and international developments. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural markets. Normal weather with, in general, trend crop production yields is assumed. Provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Act), the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 are assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. Thus, the projections are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a description of what would be expected to happen under these very specific circumstances and assumptions. As such, the projections provide a neutral reference scenario that can serve as a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm-sector outcomes that could result under different domestic or international assumptions.

The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2012 and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Short-term projections used as a starting point in this report are from the November 2012 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2012.

Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to high prices for many farm commodities in recent years, in part due to weather such as the 2012 U.S. drought. In response, global agricultural production of most major crops will increase in 2013. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall in 2013 in response to high feed costs, reduced producer returns, and drought in the Southern Plains of the United States over the past two years. Meat production then increases in response to improved returns.

Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued global demand for biofuels. Those factors combine to support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices of agricultural products. Thus, following reductions from projected record levels in 2013, farm cash receipts and the value of U.S. agricultural exports grow beyond 2015. Although farm production expenses also increase beyond 2015, net farm income remains historically high. U.S. retail food prices are projected to rise at a rate that exceeds the general inflation rate in 2013, partly due to effects of the 2012 U.S. drought on agricultural commodity prices. Food prices increases then are projected to average less than the overall rate of inflation in 2014-22, as higher livestock production moderates future increases in consumer meat prices.

USDA Long-term Projections, February 2013 1

Key Assumptions and Implications

Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include:

Economic Growth

Global economic growth is assumed in the projections at a 3.3-percent average annual rate over the next decade. However, the assumptions reflect a dichotomy between relatively weak longrun economic growth in developed countries and stronger growth in developing countries. As a result, developing countries become a larger part of the world economy. Relatively high growth rates in China, India, and other areas of developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America underpin the anticipated macroeconomic gains for developing countries.

Among developed countries, Japan’s economic growth continues to face constraints from long-term structural rigidities, a political process that makes economic reform difficult, and an aging population. Growth in the European Union (EU) will be limited by the ongoing financial instability and adjustments in the Eurozone.

The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an average rate of about 2.6 percent over the next decade. With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from about 26 percent currently to 24 percent at the end of the projection period.

Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with movement away from traditional staple foods and increased diversification of diets.

Population

Stronger global economic growth over the next decade contributes to the continued slowing of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Growth in global population is projected to average about 1.0 percent per year compared with an average annual rate of 1.2 percent in the last decade.

Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2022, up from 80 percent in 2010.

Population gains in developing countries, along with increased urbanization and expansion of the middle class, are particularly important for the projected growth in global food demand. Populations in developing countries, in contrast to those in more-developed countries, tend to be both younger and undergoing more rapid urbanization, factors that generally lead to the expansion and diversification of food consumption.

2 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2013

The Value of the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar is projected to continue to depreciate through the projection period. The dollar depreciation is part of a global rebalancing of trade and financial markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recession.

The weaker dollar will remain a facilitating factor in projected gains in U.S. agricultural exports. Although trade competition will continue to be strong, the United States will remain competitive in global agricultural markets, with export gains contributing to longrun increases in cash receipts for U.S. farmers.

Oil Prices

After declining in 2013, crude oil prices are assumed to increase over the next decade as global economic activity improves. Increases are somewhat faster than the general inflation rate in the latter part of the projections. By the end of the projection period, the nominal refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is projected to be over $120 per barrel, compared with $93.20 projected for 2013.

Increases in crude oil prices raise production costs in the agricultural sector.

U.S. Agricultural Policy

The 2008 Farm Act is assumed to be extended through the projection period. That assumed extension has a broader coverage of provisions than was subsequently included in the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which was enacted in January 2013 after these projections were completed.

Acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is projected to decline to less than 28 million acres through 2014 before rising back to close to its legislated maximum of 32 million acres throughout the remainder of the projections.

Direct Government payments to farmers are projected to be lower than during 2000-10. Consequently, the sector relies more on the market for its income. The CRP and fixed direct payments are the largest Government payments to the U.S. agricultural sector throughout the projection period, although payments under the Average Crop Revenue Election program jump to $1.8 billion in 2015 following the decline in commodity prices from recent highs.

Large crop insurance indemnities are paid to the sector in 2012 and 2013, mostly related to the effects of the 2012 U.S. drought.

U.S. Biofuels

The 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit that had been available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol used as fuel expired at the end of 2011. The projections assume that these provisions are not reinstated.


The $1-per-gallon tax credit for blending biodiesel, which had expired at the end of 2011, was assumed to be unavailable in the projections—its retroactive reinstatement and extension through 2013 occurred in January 2013, after the projections were completed.

High levels of domestic corn-based ethanol production continue over the next decade, with about 35 percent of total corn use projected to go to ethanol production. However, ethanol production gains are smaller than have occurred in recent years. The projected slower expansion reflects declining overall gasoline consumption in the United States (which is mostly a 10-percent ethanol blend (E10) market), infrastructural and other constraints on growth in the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market.

The biomass-based diesel use mandate, as administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has risen to 1.28 billion gallons for 2013 and is assumed to remain at that level for subsequent years. Some biodiesel production above this mandate is assumed to meet a portion of the advanced biofuel mandate of the Renewable Fuel Standard of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Soybean oil, other first-use vegetable oils, animal fats, and recycled vegetable oil are used as feedstocks to produce biodiesel in the projections.

Livestock and Meat Trade

World meat demand and imports continue strong growth, especially in many middle- and low-income countries. Projected growth for global meat consumption averages 1.8 percent annually over the next decade, with larger gains for poultry than for pork or beef. Africa and the Middle East account for more than 40 percent of the global increase in meat imports.

The projections assume that Russia will continue to use policies to stimulate its domestic pork and poultry production and to limit its reliance on imports.

International Policy

Trade projections assume that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The report incorporates effects of trade agreements and domestic policies in place in November 2012.

Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and commodity analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to continue.

Mandatory marketing through the Canadian Wheat Board of wheat and barley produced in western Canada ended in August 2012 and is assumed to not be reinstated.

International Biofuels

Continued expansion of global biofuel production is projected, largely due to biofuel policies. As a result, demand for biofuel feedstocks continues to grow, as well. The largest producers—the United States, Brazil, the EU, and Argentina—are projected to expand output, although at a slower pace than in recent years, mainly due to a projected slowdown


of U.S. ethanol production. Increases in biofuel output are also expected for many smaller producing countries, generally for their domestic use.

The EU remains the world’s largest importer of biofuels throughout the projection period. To boost biodiesel production, the EU increases oilseed production and imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil feedstocks, mainly from Ukraine, Russia, and Indonesia. About 80 percent of the expansion in EU ethanol production comes from increased use of wheat and corn feedstocks. The EU also increases imports of biofuels, particularly biodiesel from Argentina and ethanol from Brazil.

Argentina and Brazil remain the world’s dominant biofuels exporters—Argentina specializing in soybean oil-based biodiesel and Brazil in sugarcane-based ethanol. Exports from these countries grow steadily in the projections but are constrained as both countries increase their domestic use of biofuels.

Prices

Prices for many major crops are projected to decline in the near term as global production responds to recent high prices. Nonetheless, after these initial price declines, long-term growth in global demand for agricultural products, a depreciating dollar, and continued biofuel demand, particularly in the United States, the EU, Brazil, and Argentina, hold prices for corn, oilseeds, and many other crops above pre-2007 levels.

Increasing prices in the livestock sector initially reflect reduced total meat and poultry production. As feed costs fall from recent highs and meat demand strengthens, improved livestock-sector net returns provide economic incentives for expansion. Additionally, improved forage supplies encourage cattle herd expansion. Thus, after increasing through 2015, beef cattle prices decline for several years as production expands starting in 2016. Hog prices rise in the near term but then decline for several years as red meat production rises. Over the latter half of the projection period, livestock prices generally rise, reflecting a moderate pace of production expansion combined with increasing domestic use and export demand. After declining in 2012-15, nominal farm-level milk prices are projected to rise gradually over the rest of the projection period, with increases less than the overall rate of inflation largely due to efficiency gains in production.

Farm income is projected to reach a record high nominal level in 2013 reflecting high commodity prices as well as large crop insurance indemnities paid to the sector. Although projected to decline from this record as commodity prices retreat, strengthening global food demand, a weaker dollar, and sustained biofuel demand keep net farm income historically high over the projection period.

U.S. retail food prices are projected to rise faster than the overall rate of inflation in 2013 in part due to effects of the 2012 U.S. drought on farm commodity prices. For the remainder of the projection period, consumer food price increases average somewhat less than the general inflation rate, largely reflecting production gains in the livestock sector which limit consumer meat price increases. As the domestic economy continues to rebound and consumer demand strengthens, food expenditures for meals away from home rise faster than expenditures for food at home and account for a growing share of total food spending.


Macroeconomic Assumptions

The macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect a dichotomy between relatively weak long-run sustainable growth in developed countries (especially Japan and the European Union (EU)) and relatively strong, above-average growth in developing countries. As a result, developing countries become a larger part of the world economy. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2012.

World GDP growth is projected to increase at an average annual rate of around 3.3 percent over the next decade. The strongest growth is anticipated in developing countries. China and India are expected to remain among the world’s fastest growing economies. Robust economic growth is also anticipated across developing regions, including Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, the countries of the former Soviet Union, and other countries in East and Southeast Asia. The developed countries’ share of global real GDP is 58 percent at the end of the projection period, down from 67 percent in 2010.

Following a contraction of about 3.1 percent in 2009, the U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in 2010, 1.8 percent in 2011 and an estimated 2.1 percent in 2012. U.S. growth in 2013 is expected to be 2.4 percent. Stronger growth for the U.S. economy of between 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent is then assumed for several years, before moving to longer term growth of 2.6 percent. With U.S. growth slower than the rest of the world throughout the projection period, the U.S. share of world GDP falls from nearly 26 percent in 2012 to 24 percent by 2022.

The slow recovery in the United States and other developed economies has several important implications. Inflation is likely to remain subdued for some years to come as excess capacity remains in the economies. Interest rates are also likely to remain at historically low rates for the next several years. The projections assume that interest rates will then move back toward historical averages.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth

Percent

World

United States


Agricultural Implications

Global economic growth and population gains are expected to boost food and feed demand over the projection period. This is particularly true since world growth is concentrated in emerging markets and developing countries with high income-related propensities for consumption of food and agricultural products. Also, continued biofuel demand will remain an important factor shaping the projections for global use, world trade, and agricultural commodity prices. Supporting the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports is the cumulative effect of the weaker U.S. dollar since 2002 and the dollar’s continued relatively low level through the projection period. The depreciated dollar makes U.S. agricultural exports increasingly competitive in international markets. Among agricultural products, U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products tend to be the most sensitive to the U.S. dollar’s value because they face more global trade competition.


-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet UnionPercent

Developing Asia

Former Soviet Union

Latin AmericaAfrica

Economic growth in developing countries is projected to average 5.6 percent annually during 2012-22. Average annual growth is projected to be 7.8 percent in China and 7.5 percent in India, while the rest of the developing economies average 4.2 percent annual growth over the projection period. Developing countries will have a growing role in the global economy and food demand, and will continue to

account for most of the growth in U.S. agricultural exports. High income growth, along with associated gains in consumption and imports of food and feed, drives this result. As incomes rise in developing countries and consumers enter the middle class, they tend to diversify their diets, increasing their relative consumption of meat, dairy products, and processed foods (including vegetable oils). These consumption changes move import demand toward feedstuffs and high-value food products.

Continued strong growth in China, India, and the rest of Asia make this region an increasingly important part of the global economy, with developing Asia’s share of world GDP rising to 24 percent by the end of the projection period. Projected annual growth for Southeast Asia averages 5.1 percent. Growth in developing countries of East Asia is projected to average 6.6 percent per year, largely due to China’s strong economic gains. Relatively high oil prices by historical standards modestly constrain economic growth in developing Asia. The manufacturing sector in Asian countries is far more dependent on energy for GDP growth than are the more developed economies where more of the growth is due to service sector expansion.

China’s economic growth has been consistently the strongest in Asia, averaging over 10 percent between 2001 and 2010. While some slowing is expected, China’s economic growth is expected to average around 7.8 percent over the next decade. China is expected to account for about 13 percent of the world economy in 2022. India’s projected average economic growth of 7.5 percent per year also puts it in the top tier of high-growth countries. Nonetheless, India remains a low-income country, with real (inflation-adjusted) 2005-based per capita income of $1,171 in 2012, compared with $3,353 in China. Continued strong income growth in India and China is expected to more than double both countries’ real per capita income by the end of the projection period. This growth in per capita income is expected to move a significant number of people out of poverty and continue to boost food demand.

Latin America sustains projected growth of 4 percent a year. An overall improvement in macroeconomic policies has attracted foreign capital inflows (particularly foreign direct investment to Chile, Colombia, and Brazil) and sustained growth in the region. Growth in Mexico is projected to average 3.6 percent per year.

The countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) are projected to return to sustainable growth averaging 3.9 percent annually for the next decade. Continuing relatively high oil prices benefit Russia and other energy-rich FSU countries.


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP growth for developed countries, European Union, and Japan

Percent

Developed countries

Japan

European Union

Developed economies are projected to grow about 2 percent annually, on average, from 2012 to 2022. Prospects are for both the EU and Japan to grow at lower rates than the United States in coming years. Canada’s growth is projected to be similar to that of the United States.

Economic growth for the EU is projected at about 1.7 percent per year in the next decade. Continuing difficulties in overcoming Eurozone financial difficulties remain a constraint on EU growth prospects. Additionally, structural rigidities, particularly inflexible labor laws and an expensive social security system, constrained the outlook for EU economic growth. Although unemployment is expected to decline from double-digit rates during the projection period, benefits of economic integration are limited by continued restrictions on labor mobility between EU countries.

The projections assume economic growth in Japan averages 1.1 percent per year, a continuation of the slow growth and deflationary environment that Japan has experienced since the 1990s. Japan continues to face constraints to economic growth from long-term structural rigidities, a political process that makes economic reform difficult, and an aging population. Increasing integration with the other economies of Asia, especially China, will mitigate some of the growth constraints in the Japanese economy. Nonetheless, Japan is a heavily trade-dependent country and its trade-dependent sectors have declined significantly. The recent passage of a doubling of the consumption tax, which goes into effect in 2014-15, will be a further negative fiscal shock to the economy. Slow growth prospects in Japan relative to high growth for the other major Asian countries suggest that the importance of Japan in the global economy will diminish throughout the projection period.


-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.51991-2000

2001-102011-22

Population growth continues to slow

Average annual percent

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

World United States

FormerSoviet Union

AfricaMiddle East

Asia

LatinAmerica

Developingcountries

Developedcountries

World population growth is projected to continue slowing over the next decade, rising about 1.0 percent per year for the projection period compared to an annual rate of 1.2 percent in 2001-10.

Developed countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.4 percent over 2012-22. The projected annual average population growth rate for the United States of about 0.8 percent is the highest among developed countries, in part reflecting immigration.

Population growth rates in developing economies are projected to be sharply lower than rates in the 1980s and 1990s, but remain above those in the rest of the world. As a result, the share of global population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2022, compared to 74 percent in 1980.

China and India together accounted for 37 percent of the world’s population in 2012. China’s population growth rate slows from 1.0 percent per year in 1991-2000 to less than 0.4 percent in 2012-22, with its share of global population falling. The population growth rate in India is projected to decline from 1.8 percent to 1.2 percent per year over the same period, increasing its share of world population.

Brazil’s population growth rate falls from 1.6 percent per year in 1991-2000 to 1.0 percent annually in 2012-22. The population growth rate in Indonesia is projected to decline from 1.7 percent to 0.9 percent per year over the same period. Although Sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth rate declines from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent per year between the same periods, this region continues to have the highest population growth rate of any region in the world.

Countries with declining populations include Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Japan, and South Africa.


80

90

100

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar continues depreciation 1/Index values, 2005=100

1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights, based on 192 countries.

The U.S. dollar is projected to maintain its low value through the projection period. The dollar depreciation is part of a global rebalancing of trade and financial markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recession.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar since 2002 is projected to continue over the next decade. However, strong GDP growth in the United States relative to the EU and Japan will tend to mitigate tendencies toward appreciation of the euro and yen relative to the U.S. dollar. The euro could weaken further if the Eurozone problems continue pushing the dollar toward appreciation. The yen is projected to depreciate moderately in real terms relative to the U.S. dollar over the projection period.

In June 2010, the Chinese Central Bank announced that it would allow increased flexibility in the exchange rate of the yuan relative to the U.S. dollar. From July 2010 to June 2012, there was a 9-percent real appreciation of the yuan. The projections assume that China allows its real exchange rate to continue to appreciate at a measured pace. The real appreciation of the yuan also leads to some appreciation of other Asian currencies. These exchange-rate developments will strengthen U.S. agricultural exports to Asian countries.


0

25

50

75

100

125

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. crude oil prices

Dollars per barrelRefiner acquisition cost,

crude oil imports

Refiner acquisition cost, adjusted for inflation

Prices for crude oil are assumed to remain historically high over the next decade. Recently, oil prices have been constrained by high non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil production, relatively slow growth in demand due to conservation in developed countries, and slowing economic growth in developing economies. Crude oil prices are projected to rise somewhat faster than the general inflation rate in the latter part of the projections reflecting sustained global economic growth. By the end of the projection period, the nominal refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is projected to exceed $120 per barrel.



Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptionsItem 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gross Domestic Product Nominal, billion dollars 15,076 15,630 16,223 16,789 17,907 18,777 19,670 20,605 21,584 22,611 23,686 24,812 Real, billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars 13,299 13,584 13,910 14,325 14,712 15,109 15,502 15,905 16,318 16,743 17,178 17,625 percent change 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Disposable personal income Nominal, billion dollars 11,549 11,878 12,251 12,815 13,442 14,101 14,792 15,517 16,277 17,075 17,911 18,789 percent change 3.8 2.8 3.1 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Nominal per capita, dollars 37,012 37,791 38,699 40,184 41,840 43,552 45,324 47,167 49,086 51,082 53,160 55,322 percent change 3.0 2.1 2.4 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Real, billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars 10,150 10,309 10,505 10,749 11,050 11,359 11,677 12,004 12,341 12,686 13,041 13,406 percent change 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Real per capita, 2005 chained dollars 32,527 32,799 33,183 33,707 34,393 35,084 35,780 36,490 37,214 37,953 38,706 39,474 percent change 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Consumer spending Real, billion 2005 chain-weighted dollars 9,429 9,600 9,838 10,121 10,374 10,633 10,899 11,172 11,451 11,737 12,031 12,331 percent change 2.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Inflation measures GDP chained price index, 2005=100 113.4 115.1 116.6 119.2 121.7 124.3 126.9 129.6 132.3 135.0 137.9 140.8 percent change 2.1 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 CPI-U, 1982-84=100 224.9 227.6 231.9 236.9 242.6 248.4 254.3 260.4 266.7 273.1 279.6 286.4 percent change 3.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 PPI, finished goods 1982=100 190.5 193.3 193.6 197.3 201.1 204.9 208.8 212.8 216.8 220.9 225.1 229.4 percent change 6.0 1.5 0.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 PPI, crude goods 1982=100 249.4 251.4 257.9 260.5 263.1 265.8 268.4 271.1 273.8 276.6 279.3 282.1 percent change 17.5 0.8 2.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Crude oil price, $/barrel EIA refiner acquisition cost, imports 102.7 100.1 93.2 95.0 97.0 100.2 103.6 107.0 110.6 114.2 118.0 122.0 percent change 35.3 -2.5 -6.9 1.9 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Real 2005 chain-weighted dollars 90.6 87.0 79.9 79.7 79.7 80.7 81.6 82.6 83.6 84.6 85.6 86.6 percent change 32.5 -3.9 -8.1 -0.3 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor compensation per hour nonfarm business, 2005=100 118.2 120.8 124.2 128.0 132.1 136.4 140.7 145.2 149.9 154.7 159.6 164.7 percent change 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Interest rates, percent 3-month Treasury bills 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3-month AA nonfinancial commercial paper 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Bank prime rate 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 10-year Treasury bonds 2.8 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Moody's Aaa bond yield index 4.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5

Labor and populationCivilian unemployment rate, percent 8.9 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6Nonfarm payroll employees, millions 131.4 133.1 134.7 136.0 137.4 138.8 140.0 141.1 142.3 143.4 144.6 145.7 percent change 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Total population, millions 312.0 314.3 316.6 318.9 321.3 323.8 326.4 329.0 331.6 334.3 336.9 339.6 percent change 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Domestic macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2012. CPI-U is the consumer price index for all urban consumers. PPI is the producer price index. EIA is the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.


Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1991-2000 2001-2010 2012-2022

Bil. 2005 dollars Percent

2005 dollars Percent change in real GDP

World 53,539 100.0 7,745 2.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.5 3.3

North America 14,842 28.1 42,575 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.6Canada 1,258 2.4 36,671 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.4United States 13,584 25.7 43,219 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.6

Latin America 3,589 6.5 5,959 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.0Mexico 1,000 1.8 8,701 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 1.9 3.6Caribbean & Central America 373 0.7 4,514 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.1 3.2 3.9South America 2,215 4.0 5,476 4.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.0 3.8 4.2

Argentina 284 0.5 6,741 8.9 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.1Brazil 1,016 2.1 5,634 2.5 3.5 3.7 5.0 4.3 4.7 2.6 3.6 4.4Other 771 1.4 4,927 5.6 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.3 4.0 4.1

Europe 15,381 29.9 28,044 1.6 -0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4 1.7European Union-27 14,498 28.2 28,164 1.9 -0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.7Other Europe 882 1.7 26,208 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.2

Former Soviet Union 1,323 2.4 4,691 4.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 -4.0 5.4 3.9Russia 980 1.8 6,877 4.3 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 -3.6 4.9 3.8Ukraine 97 0.2 2,170 5.1 2.5 3.5 4.8 5.3 5.5 -7.7 4.5 4.7Other 245 0.4 2,593 6.9 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.9 -3.2 8.6 4.2

Asia and Oceania 15,073 27.1 3,987 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.5 4.4 4.9East Asia 11,011 19.8 7,087 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.1 4.9 4.8 3.2 4.1 4.7

China 4,504 7.5 3,353 9.3 7.5 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.3 10.5 10.5 7.8Hong Kong 233 0.4 32,556 5.0 2.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.2Japan 4,690 9.0 36,823 -0.7 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1South Korea 1,081 2.0 22,133 3.6 2.6 3.7 4.5 4.2 3.9 6.2 4.2 3.5Taiwan 466 0.8 20,066 4.0 2.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 6.2 3.9 3.7

Southeast Asia 1,261 2.2 2,281 4.5 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1Burma 58 0.1 1,063 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.2 5.9Cambodia 10 0.0 649 6.3 6.8 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.2 6.9 7.9 7.9Indonesia 426 0.7 1,715 6.5 6.2 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.4 5.2 5.6Malaysia 188 0.3 6,443 5.1 4.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 7.2 4.6 4.4Philippines 142 0.3 1,373 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 2.9 4.8 4.7Thailand 221 0.4 3,297 0.1 5.2 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.4 5.2Vietnam 83 0.2 906 5.9 5.4 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.6 7.3 6.3

South Asia 1,723 3.0 1,051 7.0 5.6 7.0 8.1 8.0 7.5 5.2 7.3 7.1Bangladesh 91 0.2 567 6.7 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.3 6.2 4.8 5.8 6.0India 1,411 2.4 1,171 7.5 5.7 7.5 8.7 8.5 7.9 5.5 7.8 7.5Pakistan 149 0.3 784 3.0 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.7 4.1

Oceania 1,080 2.0 30,272 2.0 3.0 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.9Australia 930 1.7 42,239 2.1 3.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.1 2.8New Zealand 122 0.2 28,207 1.4 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.8

Middle East 2,012 3.6 6,743 5.5 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.8Iran 256 0.5 3,240 2.0 -2.0 -1.3 1.1 2.1 3.4 3.8 5.4 2.1Iraq 84 0.1 2,689 8.9 7.0 5.2 5.7 6.1 5.8 12.2 5.9 5.8Saudi Arabia 402 0.7 15,162 6.8 4.7 3.3 4.5 4.3 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.7Turkey 631 1.1 7,914 8.5 2.9 4.1 3.9 4.8 4.6 3.8 4.0 4.0Other 640 1.2 7,785 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.1

Africa 1,320 2.4 1,254 1.3 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.7 2.9 4.8 4.9North Africa 422 0.8 2,487 -4.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.5 3.7 4.5 5.3

Egypt 136 0.3 1,625 1.8 1.8 3.4 5.2 5.9 5.9 4.3 5.1 4.7Morocco 81 0.2 2,514 4.9 2.7 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.8 2.5 4.9 4.6

Sub-Saharan Africa 898 1.6 1,017 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.8 2.5 5.0 4.8South Africa 305 0.6 6,254 3.1 2.6 3.8 4.7 4.7 7.4 1.8 3.5 4.3West African Community 264 0.5 825 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.8 5.1 2.9 4.0 4.7Other Sub-Saharan Africa 329 0.6 639 4.0 4.5 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 2.9 6.2 5.1

AverageGDP share2009-2011Region/country

Per capita GDP, 2012GDP, 2012

Source: Historical data from various sources; compiled in the International Macroeconomic Data Set, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. International macroeconomic assumptions were based on information available in August 2012.


Table 3. Population growth assumptions

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1991-2000 2001-2010 2012-2022Millions Percent change

World1 6,913 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0

North America 349 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8Canada 34 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7United States 314 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8

Latin America 602 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.0Mexico 115 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0Caribbean & Central America 83 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.2 1.0South America 404 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.0

Argentina 42 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9Brazil 206 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.0Other 157 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.3 1.1

Europe 548 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2European Union-27 515 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2Other Europe 34 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1

Former Soviet Union 282 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1Russia 143 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1Ukraine 45 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7Other 95 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7

Asia and Oceania 3,781 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.9East Asia 1,554 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.3

China 1,343 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.4Hong Kong 7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.3Japan 127 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2South Korea 49 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1Taiwan 23 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2

Southeast Asia 553 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.1Burma 55 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0Cambodia 15 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.5Indonesia 249 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.9Malaysia 29 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.6 2.0 1.4Philippines 104 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.7Thailand 67 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.4Vietnam 92 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.9

South Asia 1,639 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.3Bangladesh 161 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6India 1,205 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.2Pakistan 190 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.5

Oceania 36 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1Australia 22 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0New Zealand 4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8

Middle East 298 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.4Iran 79 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.1Iraq 31 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.1Saudi Arabia 27 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.9 1.9 1.5Turkey 80 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.0Other 82 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 3.1 2.9 1.7

Africa 1,052 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3North Africa 170 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5

Egypt 84 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.7Morocco 32 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 883 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4South Africa 49 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 1.6 0.9 -0.1West African Community 320 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5Other Sub-Saharan Africa 514 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5

AveragePopulation in 2012Region/country

1/ Totals for the world include countries not otherwise listed in the table.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.The population assumptions were completed in July 2012 based on the June 2012 update from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Agricultural Trade

Global income growth and population gains are projected to continue during the 2013-2022 projection period. This growth provides a foundation for continued gains in world demand and trade for agricultural products. Although agricultural prices decline in the near term, continued growth in global demand for agricultural products holds price at historically high levels.

Developing countries are projected to be the main source of growth in world agricultural demand and trade. Food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in developing countries, with movement away from staple and/or traditional foods and toward more diversified diets. Per capita meat consumption is projected to rise rapidly, with poultry rising much faster than pork, and pork slightly faster than beef. Agricultural product demand in developing countries is further reinforced by population growth rates that are about twice the average of those in developed countries.

The combined region of Africa and the Middle East is projected to have some of the strongest growth in food demand and agricultural trade over the coming decade. With rapid increases in population and per capita incomes, the region is projected to account for more than half of the increase in world poultry and beef imports. Strong policy support for domestically produced meat also motivates growth in feed grain and protein meal imports, especially by countries where land constraints or agroclimatic conditions limit an expansion of domestic crop production. As a result, the region’s share of the increase in world imports is projected to be about 20 percent for coarse grain, 53 percent for wheat, 50 percent for rice, and 25 percent for soybean oil.

General International Assumptions

Trade projections to 2022 are founded on assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields, and use as well as the assumption that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The projections incorporate the effects of trade agreements and domestic policies in place or authorized by November 2012. International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2012.

Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of technology and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and analysts’ judgments regarding future developments.


Mexico is projected to be another large growth market for meat, grains, and oilseeds. A sustained increase in Mexico’s per capita meat demand over the next decade provides incentives to expand livestock production in that country as well as to import more meat. Imports of beef, pork, and poultry are projected to rise by 67, 32, and 50 percent, respectively. Mexico accounts for about one-fourth of the growth in world pork and poultry imports. For corn, Mexico is second only to China in projected import growth over the next 10 years.

At the beginning of the projection period, world stock levels are low for most crops and world market prices are high for most crops and meats. Livestock producers face high feed prices. Although stocks are low for most commodities in most countries, there are several notable exceptions. Policies in China and India have led to the accumulation of large cotton stocks. Similarly, Thailand and India currently hold unusually large rice stocks. How these countries draw down stocks to more normal levels has implications for world cotton and rice markets.

While agricultural prices initially fall from recent high levels, they are projected to remain above pre-2007 levels during the coming decade. The main contributing factors are increasing per capita incomes in low- and middle- income countries that continue to stimulate world demand for grains, oilseeds, and livestock products; a continuing depreciation of the U.S. dollar; high energy prices; and some further growth in biofuels production.

Prices for vegetable oils are projected to rise relative to prices for protein meals. Oilseed prices rise slightly more than grain prices, and meat prices rise relative to the costs of feeds, both for protein meals and grains.

World agricultural production is projected to rise in response to high prices and technological enhancements. However, a number of factors are expected to slow the rate of production growth. Many countries have a limited ability to expand planted area, and the expansion that does occur takes place on land with lower productive capacity. The growth rate in world-average crop yields, especially yields for cereal crops, has been slowing for nearly two decades, to some extent as a result of reduced research and development funding. Water constraints in some countries are impeding the expansion in irrigation. Where irrigation water is pumped from deep wells, the energy cost of pumping is projected to continue to increase due to falling water tables. Costs of other production inputs such as fertilizers and chemicals also are likely to increase.

Countries that export a large amount and a wide range of agricultural products, such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United States, are expected to remain important in global trade in the coming decade. But countries that have made significant investments in their agricultural sectors and are increasingly pursuing policies intended to encourage agricultural production, including Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, are expected to have an increasing presence in export markets for basic agricultural commodities.


50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products

Million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

Coarse grains

1/ Total of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil.

Wheat

Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has surpassed global trade in wheat and total coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China and other Asian countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse grain trade throughout the next decade.

Globally, the total area planted to grains, oilseeds, and cotton is projected to expand about 0.45 percent per year. However, in most countries, area expansion is less than 0.4 percent per year, and cropped area even contracts in some countries. Area expands more rapidly in countries with a reserve of available land and policies that allow farmers to respond to higher prices. Such countries include Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Argentina, some other countries in South America, and some countries in Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. About two-thirds of the projected growth in global production is derived from rising yields, even though growth in crop yields is projected to continue slowing.

The market impact of slower yield growth is partially offset by slower growth in world population. Nonetheless, population growth is a significant factor driving overall growth in demand for agricultural products. Additionally, rising per capita income in many countries supplements population gains in the demand for vegetable oils, meats, horticultural and dairy products, and grains. World per capita use of vegetable oils is projected to rise 17 percent over the next 10 years, compared with 7 percent for meats and 8 percent for total coarse grain. In contrast, per capita use of wheat and rice is projected to decline nearly 1 percent.

Increasing demand and high prices for grains, oilseeds, and other crops, provide incentives to expand the global area under cultivation and the intensity of cropping the land. The largest projected increases in the area planted to field crops are in the former Soviet Union (FSU), and Sub-Saharan Africa. Large expansions are also projected for Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina, including some uncultivated land brought into soybean and palm oil production in response to increased world demand for vegetable oils.


Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks

The global demand for feedstocks used to produce ethanol and biodiesel is projected to continue growing, although at a slower pace than in recent years. Expansion will continue to depend on biofuels policies.

The United States, Brazil, the European Union (EU), Argentina, Canada, China, and Indonesia, accounted for more than 90 percent of world biofuel production, consumption, and trade in 2012. Their dominance in global biofuels markets is expected to change little in the coming decade. Between 2013 and 2022, aggregate production in these countries is projected to rise about 30 percent for biodiesel and 40 percent for ethanol.

Country Assumptions and Projections

EU. The EU is the world’s largest biodiesel consumer and the largest biofuels importer. Biodiesel and ethanol production are projected to increase 45 percent and 60 percent, respectively, between 2013 and 2022. To boost biodiesel production, the EU increases oilseed production and imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil feedstocks, mainly from Ukraine and Russia. Use of animal fats and used cooking oils also increase. Biodiesel imports, mainly from Argentina, rise steadily. Over 80 percent of the expansion in ethanol production comes from increased use of wheat and corn as feedstocks. EU ethanol imports, mainly from Brazil, are assumed to capture an increasing share of EU domestic use.

Brazil. In Brazil, the world’s second-largest ethanol producer, sugarcane-based ethanol production is projected to increase 90 percent, primarily to meet increasing domestic demand for transport fuel with higher ethanol blends. Exports to the EU and the United States rise as well. Soybean oil-based biodiesel production increases 50 percent. Most of Brazil’s biodiesel production is expected to be used domestically.

Argentina. Argentina’s biodiesel production is projected to expand 80 percent between 2013 and 2022. A large share of the increased production goes to exports, which are supported by a tax structure that favors exports of biodiesel relative to soybean oil. However, domestic biodiesel use is assumed to also rise in response to a mandated increase in the domestic blend rate. Argentina’s corn-based-ethanol production doubles, supported by a growing gasoline market and a rising blend rate.

Canada. Ethanol production is projected to increase 35 percent, with corn imports accounting for an increasing share of the feedstock. Biodiesel production climbs about 28 percent, with rapeseed (canola) oil providing more than 40 percent of the feedstock. Most of the biodiesel output is consumed in Canada, but limited amounts are exported to the United States and the EU. Biofuel exports and imports are projected to remain under 10 percent of production and use.

China. In 2012, 4.6 million tons of corn and 1 million tons of wheat were used to produce fuel ethanol. China has policies to limit further expansion of grain- and oilseed-based biofuel production for transportation fuel use. Thus, no significant expansion is projected.


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other 1/

Corn

Barley

Sorghum

Global coarse grain trade

Million metric tons

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.

World coarse grain trade is projected to increase 27 percent between 2013/14 and 2022/23. During this period, corn is expected gain an increasing share of world coarse grain trade. The expansion of livestock production in feed-deficit countries continues to be the principal driver of growth in coarse grain trade, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia.

During the last decade, the percentage of global coarse grain used for feed has declined while the share going to food, seed, and industrial uses has increased. In the projections, the expansion in feed use increases more rapidly than food use. However, industrial uses, such as starch, ethanol, and malt production, increase more than twice as fast as feed use, although from a much smaller base.

Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets, accounting 80 percent of world coarse grain trade at the end of the projection period. Barley has the next largest share (13 percent), followed by sorghum (5 percent). The trade share of the other coarse grains, mostly oats and rye, continues to decline slowly and falls below 2 percent by 2022.

Corn’s share of world coarse grain trade has risen steadily. Increasing use of modern varieties and inputs has resulted in corn area and yield growth rates that are more rapid than for other grains. Demand has increased due to corn’s preferred qualities for feed, biofuels, and other industrial uses.

Commercialization of livestock feeding has been a driving force behind the growing dominance of corn in international feed grain markets. Ruminants, such as cattle and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand price-sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as pork and poultry production become increasingly commercialized throughout the world, higher quality feeds are used, boosting the demand for corn and soybean meal.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China & Hong Kong

EU 1/

Other

Africa & M. East

Mexico

Latin America

FSU & OE 2/

East Asia

Global coarse grain imports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

World coarse grain trade is projected to increase by 36 million tons (27 percent) from 2013/14 to 2022/23.

Growth in coarse grain imports is closely linked to expansion of livestock production in regions unable to meet their own feed needs. Key growth markets include China, Mexico, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and North Africa.

China’s imports of corn are projected to rise steadily and reach 19.6 million tons by 2022/23. China’s strengthening domestic demand for corn is driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors. The increase in China’s imports accounts for 40 percent of the projected growth in world corn trade.

Imports by Africa and the Middle East account for about 20 percent of the growth in world coarse grain trade through 2022/23, as rising populations and increasing incomes sustain strong demand growth for livestock products.

Mexico’s corn imports are projected to rise from 9 million tons in 2012/13 to 17 million in 2022/23. During the same period, Mexico’s sorghum imports rise rapidly from reduced levels in recent years to 4.2 million tons, mostly in response to increased U.S. supplies. Altogether, the growth in Mexico’s coarse grain imports represents more than one-sixth of the increase in global coarse grain trade during the coming decade. This reflects increased meat consumption, which stimulates an expansion in domestic meat production as well as increased meat imports.

Southeast Asian corn imports rise 3.6 million tons (49 percent) by 2022 in response to increased demand from livestock producers. The region accounts for 11 percent of the growth in world corn imports.

In East Asia—excluding China—environmental constraints on expanding livestock production, and increasing imports of selected cuts of meat greatly limit the growth in coarse grain imports. South Korea is the only country projected to show much growth in coarse grain imports.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

United States

Other

China

FSU 1/

Brazil

EU 2/

Argentina

Global corn exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

U.S. corn exports declined sharply in 2010/11-2012/13, largely due to weather-induced production shortfalls. Meanwhile, exports from Brazil, the former Soviet Union (FSU), and Argentina have continued to rise. U.S. corn exports are projected to rebound in 2013/14 and then trend upward to a record high by 2022/23. However, the U.S. share of world corn exports only rises to 46 percent, well below the 65 percent average share during the two decades preceding 2010/11.

Corn exports from the FSU, mostly Ukraine, rise nearly 6.6 million tons (43 percent) to nearly 22 million tons by 2022. Favorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness, wider use of hybrid seed, and greater investment in agriculture all stimulate corn production in this region. Although FSU feed use of corn rises rapidly in the projections, the region’s corn exports increase twice as much as any exporting region other than the United States. The FSU becomes the world’s second-largest corn exporter as its shipments surpass Argentina’s.

Argentina’s corn area and exports are projected to stagnate in the early years of the projections due to the continuation of quantitative export controls. Argentina drops to the world’s third-largest corn exporting country.

Brazil’s corn exports have quadrupled during the last 7 years. Second-crop corn following soybeans, a large share of which is produced in Mato Grosso, has risen in response to high prices. This corn is not in a good location to meet domestic demand, and tends to get exported when port capacity is not occupied with soybeans. As corn prices drop in the first half of the next decade, Brazil’s corn exports are constrained by high transport costs. During the latter part of the projection period, corn exports are projected to increase in response to increasing world prices and improved export infrastructure.

In the EU, corn used for ethanol production is projected to increase during the coming decade. However, it maintains exports of more than 1.5 million tons as it takes advantage of its lower transportation costs to parts of North Africa and the Middle East.

The growth rate in corn exports from the Other Europe region is faster than from any other exporter, although from a small, drought-constrained base. Exports from Serbia to the EU account for most of the increase.


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5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Other N. Africa & M. East

Saudi Arabia

China

FSU & OE 1/

Latin America 2/

Japan

United States

Global barley imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.2/ Includes Mexico.

Global barley trade is projected to expand by 3.6 million tons (20 percent) during the projection period and reaches 22 million tons by 2022. Rising demand for both malting and feed barley underpins the increased trade.

Feed barley imports by the North African and Middle Eastern countries are expected to grow steadily over the next decade. This region accounts for 62 percent of the projected growth in world barley imports during the coming decade, and by 2022/23 imports from these countries account for 63 percent of total world imports.

Saudi Arabia remains by far the world’s leading importer of barley, accounting for about 38 percent of world imports in 2022/23. However, its share declines slightly during the projections as the barley imports of many other countries climb at a faster rate. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are used primarily as feed for sheep, goats, and camels.

Among countries in the Middle East, Iran’s barley imports are projected to experience the fastest growth rate over the next decade. Total imports by other countries in North Africa and the Middle East are projected to grow more slowly, but still account for about a fourth of the increase in world barley trade.

International demand for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in some developing countries, most notably in China—the world’s largest malting-barley importer. China’s domestic malting-barley production is increasing, but imports also rise during the projection period. Australia and Canada are China’s main sources of malting barley.


0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

FSU 1/

Argentina

EU 2/

Canada

Australia

Global barley exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Australia, Argentina, the EU, Ukraine, and Russia are expected to be the major barley exporters during the coming decade.

Australia’s barley exports are expected to rebound after a drought-reduced harvest in 2012 and to rise slowly during the coming decade. The country remains the world’s largest barley exporter

Argentina’s barley exports have risen sharply in recent years. Export restrictions for wheat have caused a shift in winter grains production from wheat to barley. Expansion in the barley area has occurred in the southern part of the country, and barley has been used for double-cropping with soybeans in the north. The country’s barley exports are projected to remain large in the future. Other South American countries and Saudi Arabia are the main buyers of feed barley. Malting barley is mostly exported to Brazil.

Barley exports by the FSU are projected to reach 7.3 million tons by 2022/23, with Ukraine accounting for 3.4 million tons and Russia accounting for 2.5 million tons. All of Ukraine’s exports are feed-quality barley. The most rapid growth in barley exports, albeit from a small base, is projected for the Other FSU region, where Kazakhstan is expected to increase exports, especially to Iran. Total FSU exports are projected to account for 73 percent of the increase in world exports over the projection period.

The EU’s barley exports are projected to climb modestly during the coming decade, but remain well below the levels of the late 1990s.

Malting barley commands a substantial price premium over feed barley. That quality premium is expected to influence planting decisions in Canada and Australia where malting barley’s share of total barley area is expected to rise during the next 10 years. However, Canada’s total area planted to all barley continues to decline as canola remains more profitable.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mexico Other Sub-Saharan Africa Japan

Global sorghum imports

Million metric tons

World sorghum trade is projected to trend upward from around 6.5 million tons in 2012/13 to 8.7 million tons by 2022/23. U.S. sorghum exports to Mexico and Japan account for the bulk of world sorghum trade although Argentine exports are projected to gain market share.

Mexico’s sorghum imports are projected to more than double to 4.5 million tons in 2013/14 due to increased U.S. supplies. Many Mexican livestock producers have a slight preference for feeding sorghum, while U.S. livestock feeders increasingly prefer corn, thus facilitating U.S. sorghum shipments to Mexico. Historically, Mexico has often accounted for 30-40 percent of world sorghum imports, but its share is projected to rise to nearly 50 percent.

Sorghum imports by Japan—the world’s second-largest importer—trended slowly downward in the 15 years prior to 2008/09. After a small rebound in 2008/09, imports have been, and are projected to remain stable over the next decade.

Imports by South American countries grow more rapidly than imports by any other market. Although these imports rise 27 percent, the volume increase is only 0.3 million tons.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only other major sorghum importing area where imports are projected to grow during the coming decade, and that projected growth is small.

U.S. sorghum exports are projected to rebound in 2013 from low levels during the past several years, then to decline slightly for several years as U.S. supplies tighten. Exports remain flat throughout the remainder of the projections. Although exports remain well below historical highs, the United States continues to be the leading sorghum exporter.

Argentina and Australia are expected to continue to be the world’s second- and third-largest sorghum exporters during the coming decade. Argentina’s exports are projected to rise 19 percent to 3.2 million tons, while Australia’s exports are projected to remain slightly less than 1 million tons. Argentina’s production of new sorghum varieties with lower tannin content enables it to gain a larger share of the international market. The primary sorghum markets for Argentina are Japan, Chile, Europe, and other countries in South America.


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25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Other Africa

Egypt

NAFTA

Lat Am

EU, FSU, & OE 1/

East Asia

Global wheat imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. Excludes intra-EU trade. Includes intra-FSU trade.

World wheat trade (including flour) is projected to expand by 22 million tons (16 percent) between 2013/14 and 2022/23, rising to nearly 164 million tons. Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countries where income and population gains drive increases in demand. The largest growth markets include Indonesia and other Asian countries, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States, other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, and other countries in the North Africa and Middle East region.

Globally, per capita use of wheat is projected to decline slightly. In many developing countries, almost no change in per capita wheat consumption is expected, but imports are projected to expand modestly because of population growth and limited potential to expand wheat production. As incomes rise in Indonesia, Vietnam, and some other Asian countries, consumers shift marginally from rice to wheat.

Egypt remains the world’s largest wheat-importing country with imports climbing to 12 million tons by 2022. Imports by Indonesia grow rapidly to 8.6 million tons and it replaces Brazil as the second-largest importing country.

Imports by Vietnam and Bangladesh are both projected to rise rapidly, increasing a total of 2.1 million tons. Partially offsetting this increase are projected lower imports by Japan and South Korea.

Imports by countries in Africa and the Middle East rise nearly 12 million tons and account for 53 percent of the total increase in world wheat trade. Saudi Arabia has adopted a policy to phase out wheat production by 2016 because of water scarcity concerns, and imports are projected to rise to 3.4 million tons by 2022/23.

Historically, India has been a big wheat importer in some years and a big exporter in some other years. In the past two years, India has exported significant amounts of wheat, partially as a result of high price-support policies and excess government stocks. These policies are expected to continue in some form, although exports are projected to decline during the coming decade.


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25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

FSU & OE 1/

EU 2/

Australia

Argentina

Canada

United States

Global wheat exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

The traditional five largest wheat exporters (the United States, Australia, the EU, Argentina, and Canada) are projected to account for about 60 percent of world trade in 2022, compared with nearly 70 percent during the last decade. This decrease in share is mostly due to increased exports from the Black Sea area.

U.S. wheat exports are projected to decline from nearly 30 million tons in 2012/13 to just over 25 million tons at the end of the projection period. U.S. exports are projected to account for less than 16 percent of global wheat trade at the end of the projection period, down from about 22 percent in the past 5 years.

Canada’s wheat area continues to decline slowly in response to increased global demand and more favorable returns for vegetable oils (especially rapeseed oil). As a result, little change is projected for Canadian wheat exports. Eliminating the Canadian Wheat Board’s state trading monopoly is assumed to result in redirection of some Canada’s exports to the United States due to logistical considerations.

In Argentina, some of the area formerly planted to wheat shifts to barley in response to government policies and increased use of barley for double-cropping in crop rotation practices. Exports rebound in 2013 and 2014 after production shortfalls the previous 2 years, but then gradually decline during the rest of the projection period.

The EU is the only traditional exporter whose market share is projected to increase. After dropping sharply in 2011 and 2012, EU wheat exports are projected to trend upward and reach 25 million tons by 2022, well above the levels of the last decade.

The strong upward trend in wheat exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan was interrupted by droughts in 2010 and 2012. However, exports from these countries are expected to recover and rise more than 55 percent, climbing to nearly 50 million tons by 2022 and accounting for about 80 percent of the projected increase in world wheat trade. Increasing domestic feed use prevents even more rapid export growth. Although not explicitly reflected in the projections, continued year-to-year volatility in production and trade is likely because of the region’s highly variable weather and yields.


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20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other Asia

Indonesia

N. Africa & M. East

EU, FSU, & OE 1/

Latin America 2/

Global rice imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico.

Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.5 percent per year from 2013 to 2022. In 2022, global rice trade reaches 47 million tons, 42 percent above the average of the last half decade. The main factors driving this expansion in trade are a steady growth in demand—largely due to population and income growth in developing countries—and the inability of several key importers to significantly boost production. Since the mid-1990s, world trade as a share of world consumption has risen above its 4-percent-average over the previous half century, to nearly 8 percent currently, and this growth is expected to continue.

In Africa and the Middle East, strong demand growth is driven by rapidly expanding population and income, while production growth is limited. In North Africa and the Middle East, production is primarily limited by climate. In Sub-Saharan Africa, expanding production is constrained by infrastructure deficiencies and resource limitations. Altogether, the entire Africa and Middle East region accounts for nearly half of the increase in world rice trade during the projections. Africa accounts for most of this region’s rising imports.

Indonesia and the Philippines are projected to become the largest individual rice-importing countries. By the end of the projection period they import 4.0 and 2.5 million tons, respectively.

China’s rice imports jumped nearly 2 million tons between 2010 and 2012. In the projections, China’s imports decline from record 2012 levels, but remain historically large as China imports lower-priced rice, primarily from Vietnam.

Other major importing countries—Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia—each take more than 1.3 million tons. These 4 countries have limited ability to expand rice production and are expected to account for more than 10 percent of the projected increase in global rice imports.

Rice imports by other Asian countries account for most of the rest of the increase in world imports. Population growth and rising per capita incomes boost rice consumption and raise imports in this region.

In the EU, Canada, and the United States, immigration continues to support slightly higher per capita consumption and modest import growth. In Mexico, higher incomes contribute to higher per capita consumption and moderate gains in imports.

Imports by the FSU are projected to decline slowly as a result of strong production growth and a declining population that more than offset slowly rising per capita consumption.


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35

40

45

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Burma & Cambodia

India

China

Thailand

Vietnam

Pakistan

United States

South America

Global rice exportsMillion metric tons

Asia continues to supply most of the world’s rice exports throughout the projection period.

Rice exports from Thailand and Vietnam, typically the world’s largest rice-exporting countries, account for more than 46 percent of world trade and for more than 58 percent of the growth in world exports in the coming decade. In Thailand, rice area and yields are projected to increase. Increasing production combined with a drawdown in large stocks enable exports to rise 4.2 million tons, to 13 million by 2022. Vietnam’s export expansion is smaller, rising from 7.4 to 8.7 million tons. Per capita consumption in both countries declines slowly as incomes rise.

India typically has been the third- or fourth-largest rice exporter since the mid-1990s, but its export levels have been volatile, primarily due to Government policies and fluctuating stock levels. In September 2011, the Government eased an export ban on non-basmati rice and exports jumped from less than 3 million tons to more than 10 million tons, making India the number one exporter in 2012. Although projected exports retreat from that peak, they remain large for the next several years as the country’s large stocks are drawn down.

Pakistan and the United States have each been exporting between 3 and 4 million tons in recent years. Pakistan has expanded its rice area, and rice production and exports are projected to climb to 5 million tons, establishing the country as the fourth largest exporter.

Modest expansion in U.S. rice exports is attributable to a slight area expansion after 2013, continued yield growth, and slow growth in domestic use. The U.S. export share is projected to remain about 9 percent during the projections.

Rice exports from China, the sixth-largest rice-exporting country, have declined in recent years but are projected to begin rising again and to reach 1.1 million tons by 2022, about double the level shipped in recent years. Little change in production is expected. Higher yields are expected to offset declining area as China allows the use of genetically modified rice. Reductions in per capita consumption, a result of continued diet diversification resulting from higher incomes, are expected to offset population growth. China’s rice stocks are projected to remain large during the projection period.

Australia’s exports have recovered from the extremely low, drought-induced, levels shipped during much of the past decade. Exports are projected to stabilize at about 0.5 million tons.


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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil

Soybeans and soybean meal, million metric tons

Soybeans

Soybean meal

Soybean oil

Soybean oil, million metric tons

Economic growth and population increases in developing countries are projected to boost demand for vegetable oils for food consumption and for protein meals used in livestock production. Vegetable oil used for biodiesel production also is projected to increase. With demand for vegetable oils increasing at a faster rate than for protein meals, prices rise more rapidly for vegetable oils than for oilseeds and protein meals, particularly for rapeseed oil compared with rapeseed meal.

Many countries with limited opportunities to expand oilseed production, such as China and some countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, have invested heavily in crushing capacity. As a result, their import demand for oilseeds has grown rapidly, and this growth is projected to continue. During the next decade, global soybean trade is projected to increase by 37 percent, soybean oil by 21 percent, and soybean meal by 19 percent.

In China, per capita income is projected to continue rising rapidly, thereby expanding consumer demand for livestock products and vegetable oils. Feed rations are expected to include an increasing percentage of protein meal to improve rates of weight gain for meat-producing animals. China mostly will import oilseeds for crushing rather than large amounts of oilseed meals and oils. That preference affects the composition of world trade by raising global import demand for oilseeds rather than for oilseed products.

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States account for 87 percent of the world’s aggregate exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil during the coming decade. Brazil’s share of world exports of soybeans and soybean products climbs to more than 36 percent, as area expansion and yield growth boost production faster than in other exporting countries. In Argentina, uncertainties about grain policies cause farmers to keep more land in soybean production. Also, some pasture land is shifted to soybean cultivation. Argentina’s share of world exports of soybeans and soybean products rises slightly to about 27 percent.

The U.S. share of global exports of soybeans and soybean products declines from about 29 percent to 24.5 percent by 2022.

The EU continues expanding biodiesel production using rapeseed oil as a primary feedstock. Rapeseed area increases, particularly early in the projection period, but imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil also rise. EU imports of soybean meal and soybean oil are projected to increase.


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80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China

Other

N. Africa & Middle East

Latin America 1/

East Asia

EU 2/

Global soybean imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly during the next 10 years, but at a slower pace than in recent years, climbing nearly 39 million tons (37 percent), to 144 million tons.

China’s soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for more than half of world trade. Over the coming decade, China will face policy decisions regarding the tradeoffs between producing and importing corn and soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will pursue increasing corn production and letting soybean imports increase to fill the shortfall in domestic production. China’s modern, efficient, but underutilized oilseed crushing capacity is expected to drive strong gains in soybean imports. Thus, China’s soybean imports are projected to rise 52 percent to 103 million tons in 2022/23 and to account for more than 90 percent of the projected growth in global soybean imports. Soybean oil will be used domestically, but some surplus soybean meal will be exported to other Asian countries.

EU soybean imports declined over the past decade due to decreases in internal grain prices, increases in grain and rapeseed meal feeding, and rising imports of soybean meal. These trends are projected to continue, although at a slower pace, with soybean imports remaining mostly unchanged.

Imports of soybeans and soybean meal by East Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are influenced by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to importing meat and other livestock products. As a result, this region’s projected expansion in soybean imports is small. Small increases in soybean meal imports support slowly rising meat production in this region.

Mexico’s soybean imports are projected to increase 21 percent to 4.5 million tons. These imports will support the production of soybean meal for the Mexican poultry and pork industries, and of soybean oil for domestic food consumption.

Egypt is projected to increase soybean imports in an effort to improve feed rations and to meet increased per capita demand for vegetable oil consumption. Many other countries in the North Africa and Middle East region also have a limited ability to expand their soybean production, and so they increase imports to fill their growing feed and food needs.


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80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Brazil

Argentina

Other South America

United States

Global soybean exports

Million metric tons

The three leading soybean exporters—the United States, Brazil, and Argentina—accounted for slightly more than 90 percent of world trade prior to 2009/10. Since then, exports from Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ukraine, and a few other countries have increased—a trend that is expected to continue during the coming decade. As a result, the share held by the traditional exporters slips to 87 percent.

Brazilian soybean exports are projected to rise 24.5 million tons (62 percent) to 63.8 million tons during the 2013/14 to 2022/23 projection period, enabling the country to strengthen its position as the world’s leading exporter of soybeans and soybean products. As world oilseed prices rise relative to grain prices, soybeans remain more profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. With increasing soybean plantings in the Cerrado region and expansion extending into the “Amazon Legal” region, the increase in area planted to soybeans is projected to average just above 2 percent per year during the coming decade.

Argentina’s export tax rates are higher for soybeans than for soybean products, a policy that favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting of the resulting products. However, in response to world demand for soybeans for crushing, Argentina’s soybean exports have risen sharply and are projected to continue doing so, rising about 60 percent to more than 17 million tons by 2022/23. Most of the soybeans exported by Argentina go to China.

Other South American countries, principally Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, respond to higher oilseed prices by expanding the area planted to soybeans. Exports by these countries increase 46 percent, to more than 11 million tons.

Although Ukraine’s soybean exports are small, the country is expected to respond to higher international prices for oilseeds by increasing production of rapeseed and soybeans. Ukraine soybean exports are projected to rise 65 percent, to 3.2 million tons by 2022/23.


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40

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60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other EU 1/ Southeast Asia Latin America 2/ N. Africa & Middle East FSU & OE 3/ East Asia

Global soybean meal imports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

World soybean meal trade is projected to climb by more than 11 million tons (19 percent), to 74 million tons by 2022/23. In a number of countries with rising middle-income populations, soybean meal use is boosted by continued growth in the demand for livestock products, limited capability to increase domestic oilseed production, and low world prices for protein meals relative to feed grains. Low soybean meal import prices provide incentives to use a higher percentage of soybmeal in feed rations.

The EU remains the world’s largest soybean-meal importer throughout the projections, despite increased domestic feeding of grains and rapeseed meal. Although abundant supplies of low-cost rapeseed meal are expected to be available as a result of expanded EU biodiesel production, there are nutritional considerations that limit how much rapeseed meal can be incorporated into livestock rations. As a result, growth in EU soybean meal imports is expected to continue.

The regions of Southeast Asia, Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East become larger importers of soybean meal due to increasing demand for livestock feed and low oilseed meal prices. Imports by Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, climb rapidly and account for 35 percent of the projected increase in world soymeal trade. Imports by countries in North Africa and the Middle East are projected to rise 1.6 million tons, and account for 14 percent of the increase in world trade. Soymeal imports by Latin American countries other than Argentina and Brazil increase by 2 million tons, with much of that trade between countries within the region.

Strong growth in soybean meal imports is also projected for many other countries. Mexico’s growing demand for protein feed is expected to boost imports. Russia’s rising soymeal imports are linked to livestock production at larger, more modern facilities. Although China’s projected growth rate for soybean meal use is one of the highest in the world, imports are small. Most of China’s soymeal will be supplied by domestic crushing of domestically produced and imported soybeans.


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30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Argentina

Brazil

United States

Global soybean meal exports

Million metric tons

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain the three largest exporters of soybean meal. Together, their share of world exports rises slightly, to nearly 90 percent over the next 10 years. Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, increases its share of the world market from around 46 percent in recent years to nearly 53 percent in 2022/23.

Argentina imposes higher export taxes on soybeans than on soybean products. That policy has provided an incentive for the country to develop a large oilseed-crushing capacity. With Argentina’s low soybean production costs and its export incentives for soybean products, soybean meal exports are projected to continue their robust growth.

In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to the rapid expansion of poultry and pork production limits increases in soybean meal exports. Also, Brazil’s soybean-crushing capacity is not expected to grow as quickly as in the past due to strong trade competition from Argentina. Brazil’s share of world soybean meal exports remains around 23 percent.

U.S. soybean meal exports gradually increase by about 1 million tons during the next 10 years, reaching 10 million tons by 2022/23. Meanwhile, the U.S. share of world soybean meal exports declines slightly.

India’s soybean meal exports decline as domestic use strengthens and export competition from South America intensifies. Exports fall from more than 4 million tons in most recent years, to 2.3 million in 2022, as rapidly increasing poultry, egg, and milk production use more of India’s domestic soybean meal production.

The EU continues to be a small but steady exporter of soybean meal to Russia and other East European countries, where livestock production is expected to increase significantly.


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2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other N. Africa & Middle East China EU, FSU, & OE 1/ India Latin America 2/ Other Asia 3/

Global soybean oil imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Asia excluding India and China.

World soybean oil imports climb 1.9 million tons (21 percent) to 10.8 million tons over the 2013/14 to 2022/23 projection period, bolstered by rising food and industrial use. China and India are the two countries that currently import the most soybean oil. Growth in world soybean oil trade will be constrained by competition with palm oil, which is the leading vegetable oil traded internationally.

India is projected to replace China as the world’s largest soybean oil importing country. In the projections, India’s soybean oil imports climb 28 percent to 1.4 million tons in 2022/23. Factors contributing to the continued growth of India’s soybean oil imports include burgeoning demand for vegetable oils and limited area for expanding domestic oilseed area. Low yields, associated with excessive monsoon rainfall and low input use, also inhibit growth of oilseed production.

In 2008, in response to high domestic food price inflation and high world prices, India reduced tariffs on crude edible oils, which stood at 40 percent for soybean oil and 75-85 percent for other oils, to zero. For the projections, it is assumed that India’s tariffs on crude soybean oil and other vegetable oils will rise moderately, but remain well below pre-2008 levels.

With a rapid increase in China’s soybean imports for domestic crushing during the coming decade, the country’s soybean oil imports are projected to decline about 50 percent, to 0.6 million tons. As a result, China will be replaced by India as the world’s leading soybean oil importer.

Income and population growth in Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East contribute to gains in soybean oil demand and imports, although rising international prices for soybean oil will temper consumption. Nevertheless, the North Africa and Middle East region is projected to become the largest importing region, followed by Latin America.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

Argentina Brazil

EU 1/ United States

Global soybean oil exports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Argentina and Brazil are by far the world’s largest soybean oil exporters, and their combined share of world soybean oil exports is projected to remain above 64 percent during the coming decade.

Soybean oil exports from Argentina —the world’s largest exporter—are projected to climb modestly to 4.6 million tons by 2022/23. Argentina’s strength as a soybean oil exporter reflects the country’s large crushing capacity, its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors exports of soybean products rather than soybeans. Gains in Argentine soybean production due to extensive double cropping, further adjustments in crop-pasture rotations, and the expansion onto marginal lands in the northwest part of the country, also have contributed to increased soybean production and crushing. Argentina’s soybean oil exports declined during the last half decade due to weather-related production shortfalls and increased biodiesel production. Although soybean oil exports have begun to rise again, slow growth is projected as more soybean oil will be used to produce biodiesel.

Brazil’s projected increase in soybean oil exports accounts for much of the rest of the global increase in soybean oil trade. Brazil also is projected to use more soybean oil for biodiesel production, but the expansion of soybean production into new areas of cultivation is expected to enable the country to increase soybean oil exports.

After falling sharply during the last 2 years, U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to begin climbing once again. By 2022, exports double, rising to 1.2 million tons, allowing the United States to remain the world’s third-largest soybean oil exporter. U.S. soybean oil used for biodiesel production also increases steadily. U.S. imports of canola oil from Canada and palm oil from Southeast Asia are projected to continue to grow strongly, and augment the U.S. edible oil supply.

In the EU, as in Argentina and the United States, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limited by the growth in biodiesel production.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other China Latin America 1/ Southeast Asia 2/ South Asia 3/ EU, FSU, & OE 4/ East Asia

Global cotton imports

Million bales

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3/ Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe.

World cotton trade is projected to trend upward at 1.2 percent a year between 2013 and 2022, but does not surpass the 2005 record. Significant geographical shifts in mill use and cotton trade are expected during the next decade as a result of recent changes in China’s cotton policy (see box).

China’s textile industry is expected to stagnate during the coming years and cotton imports are projected to decline sharply as a result of Chinese policies. The projected 3-million-bale decline in Chinese imports between 2013 and 2022 is more than offset by increased imports by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other Asian countries. Asia’s share of world cotton imports peaked at 84 percent in 2011/12, largely due to record Chinese imports. Asia’s share is projected to retreat to just above 70 for most of the coming decade.

As textile production and cotton imports shift from China to other countries, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam become major beneficiaries. Bangladesh became the world’s second-largest cotton importer during the last decade and is projected to replace China as the world’s largest importer midway through the projection period.

Pakistan has moved up to become a major importer in recent years. Even though new Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton varieties specific to Pakistan’s cotton growing conditions stimulate additional production, cotton imports are projected to increase rapidly and to surpass Turkish and Chinese imports by 2022.

Turkey’s textile industry benefited from favorable access to the EU until the end of the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas gave lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Turkey’s cotton imports have stagnated since then. In the projections, Turkey’s imports increase over the next several years as the country’s textile trade gains some benefits from China’s decline. However, Turkey’s cotton imports flatten during the last half of the projection period.

Other textile producing countries, with high wages and other production costs—such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and countries in the EU—are not expected to gain appreciably from the shift of textile production out of China.


China’s Cotton Policy: Global ImpactsChina’s cotton policy has changed significantly since 2010, with important consequences for global cotton market. In March 2011, China announced a national floor price for cotton for the first time in more than a decade, and that price was increased in 2012, despite a steep decline in world cotton prices. One result has been a large premium between cotton prices in China compared with the rest of the world, which is shifting world cotton consumption from China to other countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam.

Three trends are behind the evolution of China’s cotton policy and its impact. One is China’s growing support for domestic grain producers since 2004, which has helped make grain production more attractive to farmers in China. Another is China’s rising wages, which further places cotton—a relatively labor-intensive crop in China—at a disadvantage with respect to grains. The third trend is a downward shift in the price of cotton outside of China relative to other commodities.

China has been increasing its support to farmers since 2004 in part to help redress a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. A strong upward trend in world food commodity prices that began in 2002 increased interest by China’s policy makers to support domestic grain production. In 2004, China introduced floor prices for rice, and later extended the policy to wheat and corn. China also introduced production subsidies for grains, recently expanding payments for mechanization and to offset rising fuel costs. Cotton producers have received small subsidies for using superior seed, but have not received the other extensive subsidies.

Increased labor costs also have favored a shift from cotton to grain production. While China’s grain production has become more mechanized, cotton production in China is still relatively labor intensive. Moreover, the country’s agricultural labor force has declined as workers migrated to higher paying jobs in urban areas.

The shift in China’s policy followed a nearly-unprecedented spike in cotton prices in 2010. Reserve stocks held by China’s government were virtually exhausted in auctions attempting to limit domestic price increases. Setting a relatively high cotton support price in 2011 protected farmers from a severe contraction in prices, restored expected cotton prices to a 10-to-1 ratio with respect to wheat, and helped to ensure domestic supplies for the textile industry (albeit at inflated prices) and to rebuild national reserve stocks. China’s reserve stock management authority also is believed to have purchased nearly 4.6 million bales of foreign cotton for the reserve in 2011/12. Authorities also purchased 45 percent of the domestic crop, adding 18.4 million bales (equal to 18 percent of world consumption) to the reserve.

Commensurate with rising production costs, China raised its floor prices for grains and cotton in 2012. But world cotton prices fell to the lowest level since the 2010/11 spike. The price premium for cotton within China relative to the rest of the world rose to 50-70 percent during the first months of the 2012/13 marketing year, compared with the 15-40 percent premium that prevailed during 2005-2010. Lacking access to cotton at competitive prices, China’s textile industry increased yarn imports from India, which in turn, sparked increased cotton consumption in India.

China’s commitment to sustain its farmers’ incomes suggests continued strength in domestic grain prices and subsidies. Maintaining domestic cotton production through price policies under these circumstances suggests continued problems for China’s textile industry. China’s continued accumulation of cotton in its reserve (an additional 5.2 million tons during the first 5 months of 2012/13) highlights the potential strains on storage space and the potential negative impact on world prices that would result with a reversal of China’s reserve stocks policies.

Over the next decade, China’s cotton production will become more efficient as the share of output in the western province of Xinjiang grows and Xinjiang’s production mechanization continues. However, China’s share of world cotton consumption has declined in recent years and is projected to continue the downward trend. The shares of world consumption of other major textile producers are projected to increase.


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other

India

United States

South America

Australia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Former Soviet Union

Global cotton exports

Million bales

Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to countries with favorable resource endowments and technology. Traditional producers with large land bases suitable for cotton production continue to benefit from post-MFA trade patterns, including the United States, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the traditional low-cost producing countries of India and Pakistan. The importance of technology has been highlighted by the impact of India’s rapid adoption of genetically modified cotton, nearly all Bt cotton.

The United States is the world’s leading cotton exporter throughout the projections. U.S. exports rise slightly to 13.3 million bales by 2022/23. The U.S. share of world exports rises slightly over the next several years but remains slightly below the recent historical average, and declines during the last half of the projection period.

Brazil’s cotton exports are projected to increase by 40 percent between 2013/14 and 2022/23 as the area planted to cotton continues a long-term upward trend. Exports from Brazil rise 1.2 million bales, more than from any other country or region.

Exports from the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States declined during the post-MFA period but are projected to renew growth during the coming decade due to improvements in technical and financial infrastructure, and the adoption of Bt cotton. The region’s exports are projected to rise 16 percent during the next 10 years and to account for 12 percent of world trade growth. Exports from the other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa declined after 2005 but are also projected to increase in the future.

Government policies in Central Asian countries of the FSU promoting investment in textiles have contributed to more exports of textile products rather than to exports of raw cotton. As a result, the region’s cotton exports change very little.

Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of Bt cotton, have raised India’s production and exports in recent years. Yield growth is projected to continue as the gains from Bt cotton are further enhanced by improved cultivation practices. The increase in cotton output is expected to enable India to increase textile production with domestically-produced cotton. As a result, projected cotton exports are well below levels of the past half-decade.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Meat exports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Major exporters.

Beef and veal

Pork

Poultry

Global per capita meat consumption continues to increase with poultry consumption rising faster than pork or beef consumption. Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase about 1.8 percent per year during 2013-2022 and meat shipments from major exporters rise nearly 2 percent per year. The projected growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 2.4, 1.4, and 2.0 percent per year, respectively. During this period, exports rise 1.8 million tons for beef, 0.9 million for pork, and 1.9 million for poultry.

World meat trade increases 19 percent in the projections, driven primarily by rising per capita incomes and population growth in developing countries. However, Russia’s aggregate meat imports decline, reflecting policies that stimulate domestic meat production and curb imports.

Beef exports from Asia, mostly from India, increased sharply after 2009. Developing countries’ demand for India’s lower priced beef is projected to continue rising rapidly. India’s rising exports account for over 40 percent of the increase in world beef exports.

Australia has generally been the world’s second-largest beef exporter, after Brazil. Although its beef herd is in a rebuilding phase, production and exports are projected to grow slowly. In the projections, Australia’s exports are surpassed by those from India and the United States, and Australia drops to become the fourth-largest exporter.

Canada’s cow herd contracted significantly during 2006-10 but is now in a rebuilding phase. As a result, Canada’s net beef exports are projected to rise slowly.

Argentina’s beef herd is recovering after a sharp contraction following 2005 export restrictions, and exports are expected to rise later in the projection period.

EU beef exports are projected to decline slightly in the next 10 years.

Exports from Brazil’s expanding pork sector are expected to be competitive in price-sensitive markets such as Russia, China, and Hong Kong. Brazil is expected to continue to be the largest exporter of poultry products due to a combination of competitive production costs and export prices.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

N. A f r ic a & Middle Eas t

Rus s ia

Canada & Mex ic o

United States

Eas t A s ia

EU 2/

Beef imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Between 2013 and 2022, imports by major beef importing countries are projected to increase nearly 1.9 million tons (30 percent) and reach 8.1 million tons. Exports of lower priced beef from India and Brazil to a number of low- and middle-income countries account for nearly two-thirds of the projected increase in world beef trade.

During the next 10 years, Russian beef imports are projected to fluctuate around 1.1 million tons as rising consumer demand is offset by expanding Russian beef production. Russia does remain a market for EU and South American beef exports.

Imports of grain-fed beef by higher-income countries are projected to rise steadily. U.S. beef exports to these countries are constrained in the early half of the projections as U.S. production recovers. During the last half of the projections, U.S. beef exports rise more rapidly as production expands and exports become more competitive. As more beef demand in East Asian markets is met by U.S. grain-fed beef, exports of grass-fed beef to those markets from Australia and New Zealand are likely to decline, diverting more grass-fed product to the United States.

U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed, lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use in ground beef and processed products, rise during the projection period. The United States is projected to be the world’s largest beef importer and accounts for 20 percent of the increase in world imports.

The Middle East, with a relatively fast growing population, and Asia, with high income growth rates, are projected to be growing markets for beef. Together, the two regions account for 58 percent of the increase in world beef trade through 2022.

Strong growth in Mexican beef imports is projected to resume over the next several years. Much of Mexico’s imports consist of higher valued, grain-fed beef from the United States.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

China & Hong Kong

Cent Am & Caribbean

Russia

Mexico

East Asia

United States

Pork imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

After a sharp 2009 drop in world pork imports that was associated with the global recession, global imports recovered in 2010 and 2011. In the projections for 2013 to 2022, world pork imports are expected to continue to rise, and to increase by 0.84 million tons (16 percent).

Japan is projected to remain the world’s largest pork importer during the coming decade. Nonetheless, with Japan’s aging and declining population, its imports are not projected to rise significantly.

Russia’s pork imports are projected to decline steadily during the next 10 years in response to the country’s policies to stimulate domestic meat production and reduce reliance on imports. By 2022, Russian pork imports are projected to decline nearly 20 percent to about 0.8 million tons.

In the projections, imports by China and Mexico each surpass those of Russia. Since 2009 China’s pork imports have risen sharply and are projected to continue rising steadily. Although China continues to export about 0.2 million tons a year, its imports rise to 1.2 million tons a year by 2022.

Mexican pork imports increase the most of any country in the world, rising 0.22 million tons (32 percent) between 2013 and 2022. Increases in income and population are the primary drivers of Mexico’s increasing demand for pork. Mexico accounts for about 26 percent of the growth in global pork imports during the coming decade.

Some higher income countries in East Asia increase pork imports to satisfy demand for selected cuts of pork. Combined, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea account for 28 percent of the increase in world pork imports during the projection period.

Imports by the Central America and Caribbean region grow more rapidly on a percentage basis than imports by any other country or region, although from a small base. Although income growth and an expanding population boost demand, the region’s need to import most feedstuffs limits growth in pork production.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia

Mexico

Other N Afr. & M. East

Saudi Arabia

European Union 2/

East Asia

China & Hong Kong

Poultry imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by 1.6 million tons (21 percent) during the projections period, reaching 9 million tons by 2022. Strong import growth is projected for much of the world except, most notably, for Russia (where policies constrain imports), and Japan.

Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East currently account for about 45 percent of imports by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections. In addition, ongoing animal-disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the region’s imports grow more than the rest of the world combined and by 2022 account for 52 percent of world imports. The Middle East accounts for more than half of the region’s projected increase in imports. Imports by the Economic Community of West African States grow much more rapidly in percentage terms, but from a small base.

Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and in the Central America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that imports rise by 0.41 million tons (50 percent).

Russia’s poultry imports are projected to decline steadily. The projections assume that Russian policies will limit poultry imports to stimulate domestic production. High poultry prices and slower income growth inhibit growth in per capita poultry consumption.

China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production. The country’s growth in poultry exports slightly exceeds the increase in imports.

Fully cooked products are projected to account for most poultry exports from China and Thailand. With higher unit costs most of these products are marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In addition, Thailand’s exports to the EU are expected to rise because trade to that market in uncooked chicken is been reopened.



Table 4. Coarse grains trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers

Former Soviet Union1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

European Union2 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Middle East 22.4 19.9 21.9 22.9 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 North Africa 14.7 13.0 14.5 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9

Sub-Saharan Africa3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 Japan 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 South Korea 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 Taiwan 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 China 7.9 4.5 9.3 10.1 10.7 11.9 13.7 15.3 17.0 18.8 20.9 23.0 Other Asia & Oceania 6.5 6.3 7.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 Mexico 12.7 11.4 15.0 15.5 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.4 Central America & Caribbean 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 Brazil 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Other South America 10.6 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8

Other foreign4 13.7 -2.3 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3

United States 3.1 4.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Total trade 139.3 116.4 136.1 141.7 144.7 147.6 151.6 155.7 159.8 163.6 167.9 172.4

Exporters

European Union2 6.5 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 China 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Argentina 21.9 25.1 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 Australia 6.7 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 Canada 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 South Africa 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 Other Europe 2.4 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4

Former Soviet Union1 24.4 19.0 20.1 20.7 21.1 22.4 23.9 25.4 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.4 Other foreign 30.8 23.9 23.5 23.2 22.6 22.6 22.9 23.0 24.0 24.3 24.9 26.0

United States 41.0 32.0 48.3 53.1 55.5 56.7 58.6 60.5 62.4 64.3 66.2 68.1

Percent

U.S. trade share 29.4 27.5 35.5 37.5 38.4 38.4 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.3 39.4 39.5

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.3/ Includes South Africa.4/ Includes unaccounted, which can be negative.The projections were completed in November 2012.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons


Table 5. Corn trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers

European Union1 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.2

Former Soviet Union2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Egypt 7.1 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 Morocco 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Other North Africa 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 Iran 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 Turkey 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Other Middle East 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 Japan 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 South Korea 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 Taiwan 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 China 5.2 2.0 6.8 7.4 8.0 9.0 10.8 12.3 13.9 15.6 17.6 19.6 Indonesia 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 Malaysia 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 Other Asia & Oceania 1.9 1.8 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 Canada 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 Mexico 11.2 9.0 10.3 11.2 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 Central America & Caribbean 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 Brazil 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Other South America 8.7 8.7 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8

Sub-Saharan Africa3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0

Other foreign4 13.1 -2.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

United States 0.7 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Total trade 110.8 90.3 106.3 111.4 113.9 116.5 120.1 123.9 127.5 130.9 134.7 138.7

Exporters

European Union1 3.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 China 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Argentina 16.0 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.9 Brazil 21.0 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.2 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.6 South Africa 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 Other Europe 2.4 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4

Former Soviet Union2 17.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 17.1 18.1 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 Other foreign 9.8 8.3 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9

United States 39.2 29.2 43.2 48.3 50.8 52.1 54.0 55.9 57.8 59.7 61.6 63.5

Percent

U.S. trade share 35.4 32.3 40.6 43.3 44.6 44.7 44.9 45.1 45.3 45.6 45.7 45.81/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.3/ Includes South Africa.4/ Includes unaccounted, which can be negative.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 6. Barley trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers

Former Soviet Union1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Japan 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 China 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3

Latin America2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Saudi Arabia 8.5 7.0 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 Iran 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Other Middle East 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Morocco 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Other North Africa 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

Other foreign3 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

United States 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total trade 20.3 16.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.0

Exporters

European Union4 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9

Argentina 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 Australia 5.2 3.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 Canada 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Russia 3.5 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 Ukraine 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4

Other Former Soviet Union5 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 Turkey 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other foreign 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

United States 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Percent

U.S. trade share 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.2/ Includes Mexico.3/ Includes unaccounted.4/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 7. Sorghum trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers Japan 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Mexico 1.3 2.2 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 North Africa & Middle East 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 South America 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

Sub-Saharan Africa1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Other2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9

Total trade 5.4 6.5 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7

Exporters Argentina 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 Australia 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Other foreign 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

United States 1.6 2.5 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3Percent

U.S. trade share 29.8 38.8 55.5 54.0 53.0 51.9 51.5 51.3 50.9 50.3 49.8 49.4

1/ Includes South Africa.2/ EU-27 and the rest of the world. Excludes intra-EU trade. Includes unaccounted.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 8. Wheat trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers Morocco 3.6 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 Egypt 11.7 9.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 Other North Africa 9.4 8.1 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.4 Saudi Arabia 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Iran 0.8 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 Iraq 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Other Middle East 9.5 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 West African Community1 6.3 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.1

Other Sub-Saharan Africa2 11.6 9.7 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 Mexico 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 Central America & Caribbean 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Brazil 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 Other South America 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1

European Union3 7.4 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 Other Europe 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

Former Soviet Union4 7.6 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 Japan 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 South Korea 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 Philippines 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 Indonesia 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 China 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Bangladesh 2.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 Malaysia 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 Thailand 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 Vietnam 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Pakistan 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Other Asia & Oceania 7.4 6.9 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6

Other foreign5 12.6 -0.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

United States 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8

Total trade 156.3 132.7 141.5 143.6 146.1 148.6 151.0 153.4 155.9 158.6 161.2 163.7

Exporters

European Union3 16.4 17.5 19.8 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.7 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.2 Canada 17.4 19.0 18.0 18.9 18.2 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 Australia 24.7 16.5 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 21.0 Argentina 12.7 5.5 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 Russia 21.6 10.0 15.1 17.9 19.7 20.9 21.1 21.9 23.0 24.2 24.7 25.3 Ukraine 5.4 6.0 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.6

Other Former Soviet Union6 12.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 Other Europe 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 India 0.9 6.0 5.0 3.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 China 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Turkey 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 Other foreign 11.0 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4

United States 28.6 29.9 27.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6

Percent

U.S. trade share 18.3 22.6 19.2 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.61/ Economic Community of West African States2/ Includes South Africa.3/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.4/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.5/ Includes unaccounted, which can be negative.6/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 9. Rice trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers Canada 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 Mexico 0.64 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.89 Central America/Caribbean 1.49 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.61 1.63 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.76 Brazil 0.75 0.75 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 Other South America 0.85 0.85 0.53 0.50 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.71 0.74

European Union1 1.21 1.40 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.65

Former Soviet Union2 0.37 0.41 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.29 Other Europe 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 Bangladesh 0.56 0.25 0.55 0.63 0.71 0.79 0.87 0.95 1.03 1.11 1.18 1.25 China 1.62 2.40 1.82 1.80 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.86 Japan 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 South Korea 0.36 0.60 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 Indonesia 1.70 1.45 2.50 2.65 2.73 2.87 3.03 3.19 3.39 3.61 3.81 3.96 Malaysia 1.09 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 Philippines 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 Other Asia & Oceania 2.68 2.74 2.72 2.80 2.88 2.93 2.98 3.04 3.09 3.14 3.19 3.24 Iraq 1.35 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.57 1.60 Iran 1.90 1.95 1.95 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.06 2.09 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.17 Saudi Arabia 1.15 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.37 Other N. Africa & M. East 2.56 2.14 2.26 2.31 2.39 2.46 2.52 2.58 2.63 2.69 2.74 2.79

West African Community3 8.17 6.32 6.70 6.94 7.20 7.50 7.80 8.10 8.40 8.70 8.97 9.21

Other Sub-Saharan Africa4 2.41 2.53 2.56 2.63 2.72 2.83 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 South Africa 0.95 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19

Other foreign5 3.27 2.58 2.54 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 2.57 2.58 2.58 2.59 2.59

United States 0.61 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74

Total imports 38.37 36.52 37.49 38.40 39.48 40.56 41.59 42.68 43.78 44.91 45.95 46.92

Exporters Australia 0.45 0.50 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 Argentina 0.68 0.53 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 Other South America 2.65 2.08 2.19 2.24 2.30 2.36 2.41 2.49 2.56 2.62 2.67 2.74

European Union1 0.20 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 China 0.44 0.50 0.64 0.69 0.69 0.76 0.83 0.87 0.93 0.99 1.05 1.11 India 10.40 7.25 6.83 5.75 5.50 5.75 5.91 6.05 6.25 6.41 6.57 6.75 Pakistan 3.75 4.00 4.13 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 Thailand 6.50 8.00 8.80 9.80 10.56 10.98 11.35 11.71 12.00 12.36 12.71 12.98 Vietnam 7.20 7.00 7.44 7.65 7.75 7.85 7.95 8.10 8.30 8.50 8.63 8.75 Burma 0.70 0.60 0.68 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.88 0.94 0.99 1.05 1.10 Cambodia 0.80 0.95 1.02 1.12 1.15 1.16 1.22 1.29 1.35 1.41 1.48 1.55 Egypt 0.60 0.85 0.74 0.70 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.48 Other foreign 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

United States 3.22 3.28 2.93 3.39 3.67 3.77 3.87 3.94 4.01 4.08 4.15 4.22

Total exports 38.37 36.52 37.49 38.40 39.48 40.56 41.59 42.68 43.78 44.91 45.95 46.92

Percent

U.S. trade share 8.4 9.0 7.8 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.01/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.3/ Economic Community of West African States.4/ Excludes South Africa.5/ Includes unaccounted.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 10. Soybean trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers European Union1 11.3 11.0 11.7 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Japan 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 South Korea 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Taiwan 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Mexico 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Former Soviet Union2 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 N. Africa & Middle East 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 China 59.2 63.0 67.6 71.6 75.2 79.0 82.8 86.7 90.6 94.7 98.8 102.9 Malaysia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Indonesia 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Other 2.5 10.6 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5

Total imports 89.3 100.9 105.0 109.0 113.2 117.6 121.9 126.2 130.6 135.1 139.7 144.3

Exporters Argentina 7.4 12.0 10.9 12.2 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.5 Brazil 36.3 37.4 39.4 42.3 43.8 46.2 48.9 51.3 54.4 57.6 60.8 63.8 Other South America 4.7 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 Ukraine 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 Other foreign 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

United States 36.1 38.9 41.2 40.3 41.6 42.5 42.9 43.3 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8

Total exports 89.3 100.9 105.0 109.0 113.2 117.6 121.9 126.2 130.6 135.1 139.7 144.3

Percent

U.S. trade share 40.4 38.6 39.3 37.0 36.8 36.1 35.2 34.3 33.1 32.2 31.3 30.4

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 11. Soybean meal trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers

European Union1 21.2 21.9 23.0 23.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.5

Former Soviet Union2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other Europe 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Canada 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Japan 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Southeast Asia 11.2 11.2 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.5 Mexico 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 Other Latin America 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 North Africa & Middle East 7.4 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.6 Other 6.3 7.7 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.8

Total imports 59.0 61.1 62.4 64.9 66.7 67.5 68.3 69.4 70.7 71.8 72.9 73.9

Exporters Argentina 26.0 29.8 30.4 32.4 33.6 33.9 34.4 35.3 36.4 37.3 38.2 38.9 Brazil 14.7 14.5 13.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 Other South America 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 China 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 India 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3

European Union1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other foreign 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

United States 8.8 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0

Total exports 59.0 61.1 62.4 64.9 66.7 67.5 68.3 69.4 70.7 71.8 72.9 73.9

Percent

U.S. trade share 15.0 11.7 14.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.



Table 12. Soybean oil trade long-term projections

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers China 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 India 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Other Asia 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Latin America 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 North Africa & Middle East 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5

European Union1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Other 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Total imports 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8

Exporters Argentina 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Brazil 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4

European Union1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other foreign 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1

United States 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Total exports 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8

Percent

U.S. trade share 7.8 6.4 6.1 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.7 8.4 9.1 10.1 11.01/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.




Table 13. All cotton trade long-term projections2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Importers

European Union1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Former Soviet Union2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Brazil 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Mexico 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Korea 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 China 24.5 11.0 8.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Indonesia 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 Thailand 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Pakistan 1.0 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 India 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Bangladesh 3.1 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 Taiwan 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other Asia & Oceania 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 Turkey 2.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 Other 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Total imports 45.3 36.6 34.6 34.1 34.6 35.1 35.6 36.1 36.9 37.4 38.0 38.6

Exporters

Former Soviet Union2 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 Australia 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 Argentina 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Brazil 4.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 Other Latin America 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pakistan 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 India 10.5 3.5 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 Egypt 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 West African Community3 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 Other Sub-Saharan Africa4 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 Other foreign 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5

United States 11.7 11.6 11.3 12.1 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3

Total exports 45.3 36.6 34.6 34.1 34.6 35.1 35.6 36.1 36.9 37.4 38.0 38.6

Percent

U.S. trade share 25.9 31.7 32.5 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.4 36.9 36.1 35.6 35.0 34.41/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.3/ Economic Community of West African States.4/ Includes South Africa.The projections were completed in November 2012.

Imports, million bales

Exports, million bales


Table 14. Beef trade long-term projections2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Importers Japan 745 746 750 745 732 728 728 730 740 749 757 762 South Korea 431 375 405 431 430 445 464 483 504 520 541 569 Taiwan 130 115 125 131 136 140 144 148 151 155 159 162 Philippines 123 105 105 105 104 106 106 107 108 108 108 109 Other Asia 461 538 573 613 637 674 711 746 782 822 866 912

European Union1 367 350 350 348 347 345 343 341 340 338 337 336 Russia 1,065 1,070 1,080 1,068 1,073 1,089 1,114 1,126 1,143 1,162 1,178 1,191 Other Europe 67 57 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 64 65 Egypt 217 230 230 238 247 263 275 283 289 297 301 311 Other N. Africa & M. East 793 728 761 852 902 954 1,015 1,076 1,117 1,162 1,210 1,259 Mexico 265 300 325 330 340 360 394 428 450 478 508 542 Canada 282 285 290 293 297 300 304 307 311 315 318 322

United States 933 1,017 1,188 1,287 1,366 1,390 1,429 1,447 1,477 1,513 1,531 1,556

Major importers 5,879 5,916 6,239 6,499 6,670 6,854 7,087 7,284 7,475 7,681 7,878 8,098

Exporters Australia 1,410 1,380 1,410 1,416 1,420 1,423 1,426 1,429 1,431 1,433 1,434 1,435 New Zealand 503 521 529 543 548 550 556 559 561 564 569 574 India 1,294 1,680 2,120 2,284 2,410 2,512 2,592 2,654 2,686 2,746 2,793 2,865 Other Asia 128 118 117 110 110 112 115 119 123 127 131 135

European Union1 449 310 300 311 249 248 247 247 248 250 252 253 Argentina 213 170 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 Brazil 1,340 1,394 1,450 1,503 1,556 1,606 1,652 1,696 1,741 1,788 1,838 1,887 Canada 426 395 415 427 449 471 484 489 497 506 511 513

United States 1,263 1,120 1,111 1,093 1,081 1,108 1,162 1,224 1,290 1,353 1,416 1,482

Major exporters 7,026 7,088 7,632 7,886 8,042 8,270 8,493 8,697 8,877 9,087 9,283 9,5051/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight


Table 15. Pork trade long-term projections2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Importers Japan 1,254 1,260 1,260 1,271 1,282 1,294 1,305 1,317 1,328 1,342 1,352 1,364 China 758 775 815 851 891 930 977 1,019 1,066 1,115 1,166 1,220 Hong Kong 432 440 445 459 466 477 482 491 498 509 518 528 South Korea 640 500 505 510 515 520 525 530 535 541 546 552 Russia 971 975 1,000 996 980 966 946 922 901 874 844 812 Mexico 594 675 690 710 732 755 778 804 831 857 885 913 Central America/Caribbean 100 94 96 100 104 110 116 122 128 135 142 149 Canada 204 240 237 248 255 261 267 272 278 284 290 297

United States 364 367 363 376 382 387 393 399 405 412 419 426

Major importers 5,317 5,326 5,411 5,521 5,606 5,700 5,789 5,877 5,972 6,069 6,162 6,260

Exporters Brazil 584 605 645 660 676 692 706 719 733 747 762 778 Canada 1,197 1,250 1,215 1,216 1,223 1,232 1,243 1,255 1,268 1,282 1,296 1,316 Mexico 86 90 110 113 116 119 122 126 129 132 136 139 European Union1 2,204 2,280 2,308 2,332 2,349 2,371 2,416 2,460 2,487 2,521 2,551 2,591 China 244 215 200 201 202 202 204 205 207 209 211 213

United States 2,354 2,471 2,470 2,518 2,578 2,634 2,654 2,675 2,719 2,758 2,798 2,828

Major exporters 6,669 6,911 6,948 7,040 7,144 7,250 7,344 7,439 7,543 7,650 7,755 7,864

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.The projections were completed in November 2012.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight


Table 16. Poultry trade long-term projections 1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Importers Russia 531 535 550 414 374 358 345 326 300 272 243 214

European Union2 804 821 830 798 801 811 819 828 838 845 853 860 Canada 138 143 147 149 151 153 154 155 157 158 159 160 Mexico 730 800 825 851 899 950 995 1,040 1,092 1,145 1,195 1,240 Central America/Caribbean 311 401 429 453 466 479 486 503 521 543 555 565 Japan 895 855 840 876 877 877 869 866 866 864 860 856 Hong Kong 410 370 380 390 401 410 419 428 437 446 455 463 China 272 281 291 305 317 330 336 346 358 369 379 386 South Korea 131 115 110 120 124 127 127 130 133 137 140 143 Saudi Arabia 785 750 750 781 803 826 839 860 874 887 901 917 Other Middle East 1,270 1,266 1,272 1,326 1,366 1,406 1,447 1,491 1,535 1,580 1,625 1,670 North Africa 130 126 170 153 142 142 146 155 165 176 188 200

West African Community3 259 281 300 393 425 459 495 523 559 591 617 640 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 477 519 563 481 499 539 564 595 627 648 671 702

Major importers 7,143 7,263 7,457 7,488 7,645 7,864 8,040 8,246 8,461 8,660 8,841 9,015

Exporters

European Union2 1,182 1,230 1,275 1,364 1,398 1,388 1,386 1,378 1,369 1,366 1,358 1,349 Brazil 3,584 3,633 3,762 3,829 3,965 4,112 4,238 4,345 4,447 4,548 4,655 4,765 China 423 400 400 384 390 420 446 459 469 480 496 513 Thailand 467 540 585 593 629 664 699 736 776 819 857 895

United States 3,481 3,616 3,513 3,481 3,554 3,639 3,690 3,739 3,788 3,828 3,866 3,899

Major exporters 9,137 9,419 9,535 9,651 9,937 10,223 10,458 10,657 10,848 11,040 11,232 11,4201/ Broilers and turkeys only.2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.3/ Economic Community of West African States.The projections were completed in November 2012.

Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

U.S. Crops

In the short term, the U.S. crops sector responds to continuing high prices for most crops in 2012/13. Planted area for the 8 major field crops in 2013 is projected at more than 254 million acres. While that is down from the large acreage planted in 2012 when favorable spring weather combined with strong economic incentives, 2013 plantings would be the second largest acreage since 2000. As U.S. and global supplies rebound and prices decline for most crops, U.S. planted acreage for these crops is projected to fall over the next several years in response to lower producer returns. Over the longer run, steady global economic growth provides a foundation for continuing strong crop demand. Corn-based ethanol production in the United States is projected to rebound from 2012’s decline, although the pace of further expansion slows considerably. Nonetheless, the combination of world economic growth, a depreciating dollar, and continued expansion of global biofuels production supports longer run gains in world consumption and trade of crops. Prices are projected to fall from recent record highs but remain above pre-2007 levels for many crops. Following the near-term decline in prices and planted acreage, strong demand and rising prices provide economic incentives for increases in plantings beyond 2015. Acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is projected to decline below 28 million acres in 2013-14 before rising back to close to 32 million acres by the end of projection period. The projections reflect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Act), which is assumed to be extended through the projection period.

230

240

250

260

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, upland cotton, and soybeans.


Weather-adjusted Trend Yields for Corn and Soybeans

Long-term trends in crop yields reflect improvements in yield-enhancing technology, such as new hybrids, as well as improvement in production practices, such as better pest and nutrient management and precision planting, that in turn support greater per-acre plant populations. However, several years of poor weather during the U.S. growing season for corn and soybeans have resulted in below-trend yield outcomes for the last 2-3 years. Thus, assessing the effects of weather on recent yields is important for determining underlying trend yields for these crops. Weather-adjusted yield models were developed for corn and soybeans to provide this information. Results summarized here are based on data available in January 2013. Earlier versions of these models, based on data available in November 2012, were used for the weather-adjusted, U.S. corn and soybean trend yield projections in this report.

Corn yield model

The corn model is for national yields and is estimated over the past 25 years (1988-2012), thereby including both the 1988 and the 2012 droughts. In addition to a trend variable, the model uses as explanatory variables mid-May planting progress, July weather (precipitation and average temperature), and a June precipitation shortfall measure in selected years. Including those variables helps explain previous yield variations and deviations from trend.

Corn plantings by mid-May are important for yield potential because that allows more of the critical stages of crop development, particularly pollination, to occur earlier, before the most severe heat of the summer. Earlier pollination is also generally associated with less plant stress from moisture shortages. Most of the corn crop develops in July, so weather in that month is included in the model. Finally, while weather in June is important for development of the corn crop (and June typically has lower temperatures and more rain than July), effects of June weather are typically small relative to July weather effects. However, extreme weather deviations from normal in June can have larger impacts, as seen in 2012 and in 1988. To represent that effect, the model uses a measure of the precipitation shortfall from average in years when June precipitation is in the lowest 10 percent tail of its statistical distribution. The mid-May planting progress variable is based on weekly data from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and is prorated to May 15 from adjacent weeks’ results for years that the statistic was not reported for that date. The weather data is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The planting progress and weather data used are for eight key corn-producing States (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Nebraska). Those eight States typically rank in the top 10 of corn-producing States and accounted for an average of 76 percent of U.S. corn production over the estimation period. An aggregate measure for the eight States for each of those variables is constructed using harvested corn acres to weight State-specific data.

The effects of mid-May planting progress and July temperatures on corn yield are each linear in the model—for those variables, each unit of change has a constant effect on yield. Similarly, the June precipitation shortfall variable is linear for the years it is nonzero. The effect of July precipitation, however, is nonlinear in the model because the response of corn yields to different amounts of precipitation above and below average is asymmetric. That is, reductions in corn yields when rainfall is below average are larger than gains in corn yields when rainfall is above average. The model uses a squared term for July precipitation to represents that asymmetric effect. The estimated regression equation (shown on the following page) explains over 96 percent of the variation in national corn yields in the estimation period (more than 91 percent of the variation around the equation’s trend).

-- Continued


Weather-adjusted Trend Yields for Corn and Soybeans (Continued)

Soybean yield model

A similar approach was used to develop a weather-adjusted trend yield model for soybeans. The model was estimated over the same 25-year period (1988-2012) as for corn. The soybean equation differs, however, by not including a planting progress variable and by using an average of July and August weather variables rather than just July weather. Those differences reflect a wider window for reproduction for soybeans than for corn. Nonetheless, a similar variable for June precipitation shortfall is included to reflect the potential importance of extreme weather situations in that month. Also, the weather variables included are weighted averages for seven States (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota, and Nebraska), using harvested soybean acres to weight State-specific observations. Those were the top seven soybean producing States over the estimation period, accounting for about 70 percent of U.S. soybean production during those years.

-- Continued


Weather-adjusted Trend Yields for Corn and Soybeans (Continued)

Similar to the model for corn, the effects of July-August temperatures and the June precipitation shortfall variable are linear in the soybean yield model, and the July-August precipitation effect is nonlinear. The estimated regression equation explains 80 percent of the variation in national soybean yields in the estimation period (50 percent of the variation around the equation’s trend). Overall, the model’s weather variables have lower statistical significance in explaining soybean yields than in the corn yield model, likely reflecting the longer reproductive period for soybeans which makes the timing of favorable weather less critical than for corn.

Implications for 2013 yields and beyond

Assuming that corn planting progress by the middle of May 2013 is at the average over the past 10 years of 80 percent, that June weather is not extremely dry, and that average weather occurs in July, the model suggests a 2013 corn yield of about 164.3 bushels an acre. However, a weighted average of corn yield estimates for alternative levels of July precipitation (assumed to have a statistically normal distribution) results in a lower mean expected corn yield for 2013 of 163.6 bushels per acre. That reduction reflects the asymmetric response of corn yields to different amounts of rainfall above and below the average. That mean expectation accounts for variation in July precipitation within one standard deviation of its average, covering 68 percent of its statistical distribution. For longer term projections, the adjusted corn yield of 163.6 bushels per acre becomes the 2013 starting point and would be incremented each subsequent year by the 1.95 trend coefficient estimate.1

Similarly, with average July-August weather and June weather that is not extremely dry, the soybean model suggests a 2013 yield of 44.6 bushels an acre. The weighted average of soybean yield estimates for alternative levels of July-August precipitation results in a lower mean expected soybean yield for 2013 of 44.5 bushels per acre. That reduction reflects the asymmetric response of soybean yields to different amounts of rainfall in July-August precipitation. The adjustment for soybeans is relatively smaller than the similar adjustment for corn, suggesting less soybean yield variability due to weather than for corn. From the adjusted soybean yield for 2013, longer term projections would be incremented each subsequent year by the 0.45 trend coefficient estimate.1

Adjusting for Developments During the 2013 Growing Season

As the planting and growing seasons for corn and soybeans progress, the yield models can be used to make revisions to the 2013 yield expectations as actual data for mid-May corn planting progress and July and August weather become available. Additionally, the models provide a framework for assessing yield reductions should June weather be extremely dry, such as in 2012 and 1988.

USDA’s first survey-based estimates of corn and soybean yields for 2013 will be released by NASS in the August Crop Production report. __________________1 The long-term corn and soybean yield projections in this report are based on earlier versions of the models presented here that were estimated using data available in November 2012. Those earlier estimations implied 2013 yields for both corn and soybeans that are 0.1 bushels per acre lower than those discussed in this box. Trend coefficients were similar for both estimations.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. corn: Feed and residual use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed and residual use

Exports

Ethanol

Lower supplies and higher prices resulting from weather-reduced 2012 U.S. corn production have led to lower domestic use and exports. Corn acreage is projected to remain high in the near term, with normal yields leading to an increase in production and a recovery of corn use. Although corn-based ethanol production is projected to slow significantly, its continued high levels combine with gains in exports and feed use to keep corn use high. Following several years of adjusting markets, increasing producer returns lead to gradually rising corn acreage in a range of 88 million to 92 million acres after 2015. For other feed grains, after near-term adjustments, planted area falls back from recent highs over the rest of the projection period.

U.S. ethanol production is based almost entirely on corn as the feedstock. Projected increases in corn-based ethanol over the next 10 years are much smaller than occurred in 2005-2010. This projection reflects declining overall gasoline consumption in the United States (which is mostly a 10-percent ethanol blend (E10)), infrastructural and other constraints on growth in the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market. Nonetheless, a strong presence for ethanol in the sector continues, with about 35 percent of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production during the projection period.

Feed and residual use of corn initially rises from low 2012/13 levels mostly because of the projected increase in corn production (which affects the “residual” component). Following this near-term adjustment, lower corn prices and increasing meat production underlie gains in feed and residual corn use. Also supporting gains in feed use of corn is a slowdown in the growth of production of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production, as the corn-based ethanol expansion moderates.

Food and industrial use of corn (other than for ethanol production) is projected to rise over the next decade. Use of corn for high fructose corn syrup is supported by growing exports to Mexico as domestic use slows. Slower increases for glucose and dextrose use reflect consumer dietary concerns and changes in tastes and preferences. Other food uses of corn are also projected to rise more slowly than the increase in population. Starch use of corn, such as in the production of drywall, responds to economic growth and industrial demand, rising faster than population throughout the projection period.

U.S. corn exports increase sharply from 2012/13 weather-reduced levels and then rise at a slower pace during the rest of the projection period in response to strong global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production. Export gains are particularly strong to China, which account for about 40 percent of the projected overall growth in global corn imports. The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter, accounting for an average of about 45 percent of global corn trade over the projection period. However, this trade share is lower than the 1970-2000 average above 70 percent, largely due to the use of corn for ethanol production in the United States.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Strong wheat prices and expected net returns boost wheat plantings for 2013. However, with relatively weak overall demand growth projected for wheat, producer returns initially fall and then rise less than returns for other crops in subsequent years. This leads to a decline in wheat plantings to 50 million acres by the end of the projection period, continuing a long-term general downward trend since the early 1980s.

Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is projected to show moderate gains, generally in line with U.S. population increases.

Feed use of wheat, a lower value market for the crop, declines in the early years of the

projections from the high volume in 2012/13. Wheat feed use remains steady through the rest of the projection period as prices relative to corn allow a moderate level of wheat in feed rations.

U.S. wheat exports fall to under 950 million bushels annually for most of the projection period. U.S. wheat trade faces competition from the Black Sea region, whose wheat exports rise from 22 percent in 2013/14 to 30 percent of global trade over the next decade. EU wheat exports grow from a global market share of 14 percent to 15 percent by 2022/23. For the same time period, the U.S. market share declines from 19 percent to 16 percent.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

U.S. soybean plantings decline from high levels of 2012 during the initial years of the projections, as prices and producer returns fall. Over the rest of the projection period, growth in both domestic use and export demand lead to increases in prices and returns. Soybean plantings increase somewhat before remaining steady toward the end of the projections.

Lower U.S. livestock production since the 2008 peak and increased availability of distillers grains and canola meal have lowered demand for soybean meal as a livestock feed in recent years, thereby generally reducing domestic soybean crush. As increases in meat production resume, soybean crush is projected to follow.

Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, boosts soybean trade over the projection period—China accounts for almost 90 percent of the increase in world soybean imports. Even though U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise, competition from South America leads to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 39 percent in 2013/14 to about 30 percent by 2022/23.

U.S. exports of soybean oil and soybean meal also face strong competition from South America. Argentina, in particular, is a competitive exporter of soybean products because its graduated export taxes favor exports of soybean products over soybeans. Strong growth in biodiesel production in Argentina, however, limits the country’s soybean oil export growth, allowing the U.S. global trade market share to increase. However, Argentina is projected to account for more than half of global trade of soybean meal and captures most of the gain in global soybean meal trade over the next decade.

Soybean oil used to produce methyl esters (biodiesel) in the United States grows to 6.3 billion pounds by the end of the projection period, representing about 29 percent of total use of U.S. soybean oil and supporting the production of over 800 million gallons of biodiesel. This growth is spurred by the mandate of 1.28 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel use starting in 2013 and by demand for biodiesel to meet a portion of the Renewable Fuel Standard’s advanced biofuel mandate. Corn oil coproducts from ethanol plants (including corn oil extracted from distillers grains), other first-use vegetable oils, animal fats, and recycled vegetable oils are also used as feedstocks to produce biodiesel. Growth in the food use of soybean oil slows as projected imports expand for other vegetable oils.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Dollars per bushel

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Weather has been an important factor affecting global wheat, corn and, and soybean production over the past several years, leading to increases in grain and oilseed prices since 2009/10. Market responses to these high prices are projected to reduce prices over the next couple of years. Nonetheless, U.S. prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans are projected to remain historically high, above pre-2007 levels. The continuing influence of several long-term factors—including global growth in population and per capita income, a depreciating U.S. dollar, increasing costs for crude petroleum, and rising biofuel production—underlies these price projections.

After declining from their current high levels, corn prices are projected to begin increasing again by 2015/16 due to growth in feed use, exports, and demand for corn by ethanol producers.

Strengthening demand for soybeans and soybean products holds soybean prices high throughout the projection period. Similar to the price projections for corn, after near-term market adjustments reduce soybean prices from recent highs, prices for soybeans rise moderately after 2014/15 through the rest of the projection period.

Wheat prices also decline through 2014/15 reflecting near-term market adjustments. Subsequent projected price increases for wheat are more moderate than those for corn, reflecting relatively smaller gains in use.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. rice: Domestic and residual use and exports

Million hundredweight

Domestic and residual use

Exports

Competition from other crops is projected to keep U.S. acreage planted to all rice from increasing in 2013. While a small area increase is projected for medium- and short-grain rice, long-grain rice plantings fall. With lower relative prices for competing crops in subsequent years, rice area rises through the rest of the projection period.

Domestic use of rice is projected to grow slightly faster than population growth. Moderate expansion in U.S. food use of rice is projected to continue over the next decade. U.S. rice imports are projected to expand over the next decade, but at a slower rate than in the past. Asian aromatic varieties, classified as long-grain rice, are expected to continue to account for the bulk of U.S. purchases

U.S. rice exports are projected to rebound from a low level in 2013/14 and then increase over the next decade. Continued growth of U.S. rough-rice exports to Latin America (nearly all long-grain rice) is projected to account for most of the overall expansion of U.S. rice exports. Overall, the U.S. market share of global rice trade holds near 9 percent over most of the projection period.

After near-term market adjustments, prices for rice are projected to rise after 2014/15. Long-run gains in producer returns after 2014 support rising U.S. rice acreage.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use

Exports

Lower cotton prices following the runup of 2010/11-2011/12 initially lead to a reduction in upland cotton plantings in 2013 as competing crops have higher expected returns. As prices and returns for competing crops decline over the next several years, cotton plantings rise through 2015. However, with cotton yields and cotton prices rising only moderately in subsequent years, producer returns hold stable and decline relative to those of other crops, so upland cotton plantings decline over the rest of the projection period. U.S. mill use of upland cotton is projected to rise moderately in the projections while cotton exports initially rise before leveling off after 2016/17.

A decline in U.S. mill use of cotton since the late 1990s reflected a gradual, long-term movement of spinning capacity to developing countries. Continued increases in U.S. imports of apparel from Asia will reduce domestic apparel production and lower the apparel industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States. However, U.S. mill use is projected to grow somewhat over the next decade in response to rising demand for U.S. textile product exports, mainly to other countries in the Western Hemisphere. Nonetheless, even with this growth, however, domestic mill use is projected to represent about 23 percent of total use at the end of the projection period, down from more than 60 percent in the late 1990s.

U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to rise over the initial years of the projections from low levels of 2011/12-2013/14, before leveling off after 2016/17. While the U.S. share of global cotton trade initially rises, this share declines later in the projection period. Nonetheless, with a global trade share projected at 32 percent in 2022/23, the United States remains the world’s largest exporter of cotton.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Crop year

U.S. sugar: Domestic production, use, and imports

Million short tons

Domestic deliveries

Imports

Production

Moderate growth is projected for U.S. beet and cane sugar production over the next decade. Beet sugar production levels in the first two years of the projections are low, at an annual average of 4.752 million short tons, raw value (STRV) due to lower sugarbeet prices relative to prices for alternative crops. Beet sugar production in 2022/23 is projected at 5.319 million STRV, about 4.20 percent higher than in 2012/13. Cane sugar production in 2022/23 is projected at 3.864 million STRV, about 3.87 percent higher than in 2012/13.

Over the projection period, sweetener availability (the sum of refined sugar, sugar in net imported products, and high fructose corn syrup (HFCS)) is 119 pounds per capita. There is only limited substitution between sugar and HFCS as a function of relative prices. Sugar deliveries for human use average 11.854 million STRV over the projection period, with annual growth of about 0.7 percent a year.

Beet sugar production averages 345,000 STRV below its average share of the Overall Allotment Quantity (OAQ) under the sugar marketing allotment program. In no year does beet sugar production exceed its OAQ share. Cane sugar production averages 839,000 STRV below its average OAQ share. Production levels in all cane sugar producing States remain below their OAQ shares.

Sugar imports from Mexico rose sharply starting in 2008 when duty-free sweetener trade between the United States and Mexico began, and are projected to average 1.516 million STRV over the next decade, representing about 12.8 percent of U.S. domestic sugar consumption. Two conditions in Mexico underlie this projection. First, beverage and food manufacturers in Mexico continue to expand the substitution of lower cost HFCS (except for the first two years of the projection period) for domestic sugar. Second, remunerative prices in Mexico favor modest expansion of sugarcane area and increased sugar production. It is assumed that Mexico will not import sugar from third nations to replenish low sugar supplies caused by large exports to the U.S. market.

Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) sugar imports from U.S. commitments made to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and to several Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) average 1.444 million STRV. It is assumed that TRQ import levels are not increased during any year from initially established levels consistent with WTO and FTA minimum access commitments.

There are no sugar loan forfeitures and there are no Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) purchases of sugar for ethanol in the projections because projected raw cane and refined beet sugar prices remain above the minimum prices to avoid forfeiture.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Nursery and greenhouse

Vegetables

Fruit and nuts

Billion dollars

Value of U.S. horticultural production

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 1.4 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $71 billion in calendar year 2022, up from $62 billion in 2012.

The value of farm production of fruit and tree nuts is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2 percent over the next decade, largely due to sales growth of tree nuts and noncitrus fruits. Fruit and tree nuts are projected to rank first among horticultural crops in terms of farm sales value with a share of 44 percent. Farm sales value of vegetables and pulses is projected to grow 1.2 percent per year, led by fresh-market vegetables, while farm sales of greenhouse and nursery crops are projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.5 percent.

The volume of U.S. farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise by 0.4 percent annually. Vegetables lead this growth at an annual rate of 0.5 percent, reaching 131 billion pounds in 2022 as fresh-market production averages 1.6-percent growth. Fruit and nut production expands by 0.1 percent per year to 71 billion pounds in 2022 as noncitrus production growth more than offsets citrus production decline.

Producer prices for vegetables are projected to rise at 0.7 percent per year due to strong fresh-market vegetable production. Producer prices for fresh fruits rise by 1.8 percent per year due to slower production growth than for vegetables and due to higher citrus prices as citrus production declines.

U.S. per capita use of fruits and tree nuts increases from 287 pounds in 2012 to 295 pounds by 2022, an annual average growth rate of 0.3 percent. Per capita use of vegetables initially drops in 2013 due to a smaller potato crop then levels off to an average 406 pounds. The total supply of fruits, nuts, and vegetables over the next decade, both domestic and imported, is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent per year.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Value of U.S. horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year

The U.S. trade deficit in horticultural crops and products is projected to expand from $12.4 billion in fiscal year 2012 to $22.1 billion in fiscal year 2022.

Imports increasingly supplement domestic production of horticultural crops and products. By 2022, imports are projected to supply 52 percent of domestic fruit and nut use and 24 percent of vegetable use, in terms of farm weight. In 2012, these shares were 44 percent and 19 percent, respectively.

The export market becomes more important for U.S. horticultural producers. In 2022, exports are projected to be the destination for 27 percent of U.S. fruit and nut production, up from 23 percent in 2012, while 21 percent of vegetable production will be sold in foreign markets, up from 16 percent in 2012.

The value of U.S. horticultural imports is projected to increase by 4.5 percent annually over the next decade, compared with 8.0 percent on average during the past decade, reaching $64.5 billion in fiscal year 2022 (fiscal 2022 covers October 2021-September 2022). Fruit and nut imports account for $21.3 billion, while vegetable imports account for $15.8 billion.

Exports of U.S. horticultural products are projected to reach $42.4 billion in fiscal year 2022. Of this amount, fruit and nuts contribute $20.8 billion, and vegetables contribute $8.2 billion.



Table 17. Acreage for major fi eld crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions , long-term projections2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million acresPlanted acreage, e ight major crops

Corn 91.9 96.9 96.0 90.0 86.0 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0Sorghum 5.5 6.2 7.0 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8Barley 2.6 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0Oats 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5Wheat 54.4 55.7 57.5 54.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 50.5 50.5 50.5 50.5 50.0Rice 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2Upland cotton 14.4 12.1 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6Soybeans 75.0 77.2 76.0 74.0 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0

Total 249.0 257.2 254.4 243.3 237.9 240.0 241.4 241.8 242.3 242.7 243.2 243.1

Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 84.0 87.7 88.3 82.3 78.3 80.3 81.3 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.3Sorghum 3.9 5.0 6.0 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Barley 2.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6Oats 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Wheat 45.7 49.0 48.5 46.2 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 42.8Rice 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2Upland cotton 9.2 10.2 7.9 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3Soybeans 73.8 75.7 75.1 73.1 74.1 74.6 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1

Total 222.3 234.5 232.4 222.8 217.9 220.0 221.4 221.8 222.4 222.8 223.3 223.3

CRP acreage assumptions, crop a l location based on historica l plantings 1

Corn 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5Sorghum 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Barley 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Oats 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Wheat 8.0 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2Cotton 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Soybeans 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

Subtotal 20.8 19.7 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3

Other 10.4 9.8 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6

Total CRP 31.1 29.5 27.5 27.8 28.5 29.4 30.5 31.2 31.8 32.0 31.9 31.9

Total planted plus CRP 280.1 286.7 281.9 271.1 266.4 269.4 271.9 272.9 274.1 274.7 275.2 275.1

1/ CRP crop a l locations are based on 2010 planted acreage by State (NASS).


Table 18. U.S. corn long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 91.9 96.9 96.0 90.0 86.0 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0 Harvested acres 84.0 87.7 88.3 82.3 78.3 80.3 81.3 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.3

Yield:

Bushels/harvested acre 147.2 122.3 163.5 165.4 167.4 169.3 171.3 173.2 175.1 177.1 179.0 181.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 1,128 988 647 2,067 2,232 1,817 1,672 1,617 1,627 1,617 1,592 1,547 Production 12,358 10,725 14,435 13,610 13,105 13,595 13,925 14,255 14,500 14,750 15,000 15,260 Imports 29 100 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Supply 13,515 11,814 15,107 15,702 15,362 15,437 15,622 15,897 16,152 16,392 16,617 16,832

Feed & residual 4,547 4,150 5,250 5,300 5,250 5,375 5,475 5,575 5,650 5,725 5,800 5,875 Food, seed, & industrial 6,437 5,867 6,090 6,270 6,295 6,340 6,405 6,495 6,610 6,725 6,845 6,960 Ethanol and by-products 5,011 4,500 4,675 4,825 4,825 4,850 4,900 4,975 5,075 5,175 5,275 5,375 Domestic use 10,984 10,017 11,340 11,570 11,545 11,715 11,880 12,070 12,260 12,450 12,645 12,835 Exports 1,543 1,150 1,700 1,900 2,000 2,050 2,125 2,200 2,275 2,350 2,425 2,500 Total use 12,527 11,167 13,040 13,470 13,545 13,765 14,005 14,270 14,535 14,800 15,070 15,335

Ending stocks 988 647 2,067 2,232 1,817 1,672 1,617 1,627 1,617 1,592 1,547 1,497 Stocks/use ratio, percent 7.9 5.8 15.9 16.6 13.4 12.1 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.3 9.8

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 6.22 7.60 5.40 4.10 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.75 4.85

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 335 348 349 349 349 352 358 364 371 377 384 390

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 580 582 534 329 371 393 413 424 435 446 466 487Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.


Table 19. U.S. sorghum long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23



Yield:



Beginning stocks 27 23 24 56 52 52 49 46 43 40 42 44 Production 214 256 392 346 340 327 327 327 327 327 327 327 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Supply 242 279 416 402 392 379 376 373 370 367 369 371

Feed & residual 71 75 80 80 75 70 70 70 70 65 65 65 Food, seed, & industrial 85 80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Domestic use 156 155 170 170 165 160 160 160 160 155 155 155 Exports 63 100 190 180 175 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 Total use 219 255 360 350 340 330 330 330 330 325 325 325

Ending stocks 23 24 56 52 52 49 46 43 40 42 44 46 Stocks/use ratio, percent 10.5 9.4 15.6 14.9 15.3 14.8 13.9 13.0 12.1 12.9 13.5 14.2


Farm price 5.99 7.20 5.05 3.85 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.45 4.55


Per acre 167 170 171 171 171 174 177 180 184 188 191 195


Net returns 160 197 159 81 90 94 97 97 97 96 99 102Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum.


Table 20. U.S. barley long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23



Yield:







Farm price 5.35 6.45 5.50 4.15 4.30 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.70 4.75


Per acre 164 169 169 169 170 172 175 178 182 185 189 193


Net returns 208 269 210 119 132 139 143 145 148 151 158 160Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley.


Table 21. U.S. oats long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23



Yield:







Farm price 3.49 3.80 2.80 2.25 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75


Per acre 114 116 116 116 117 118 120 123 125 128 130 133


Net returns 86 116 68 33 43 46 49 51 52 54 56 58Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.


Table 22. U.S. wheat long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Area (mi l l ion acres ):

Planted acres 54.4 55.7 57.5 54.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 50.5 50.5 50.5 50.5 50.0 Harves ted acres 45.7 49.0 48.5 46.2 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 42.8

Yield:

Bushel s/harves ted acre 43.7 46.3 45.2 45.6 45.9 46.3 46.7 47.1 47.4 47.8 48.2 48.6

Suppl y and us e (mi l l ion bus hel s ):

Beginning s tocks 862 743 704 733 804 778 765 761 745 737 737 745 Producti on 1,999 2,269 2,190 2,105 2,005 2,025 2,040 2,035 2,050 2,065 2,080 2,080 Imports 112 130 120 125 130 135 140 140 140 140 140 140 Suppl y 2,974 3,142 3,014 2,963 2,939 2,938 2,945 2,936 2,935 2,942 2,957 2,965

Food 941 950 958 965 972 979 986 993 1,000 1,007 1,014 1,021 Seed 76 73 73 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 Feed & res i dual 164 315 250 200 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 Domestic us e 1,182 1,338 1,281 1,234 1,231 1,238 1,244 1,251 1,258 1,265 1,272 1,279 Exports 1,050 1,100 1,000 925 930 935 940 940 940 940 940 940 Tota l use 2,231 2,438 2,281 2,159 2,161 2,173 2,184 2,191 2,198 2,205 2,212 2,219

Ending s tocks 743 704 733 804 778 765 761 745 737 737 745 746 Stocks/use ratio, percent 33.3 28.9 32.1 37.2 36.0 35.2 34.8 34.0 33.5 33.4 33.7 33.6

Price (dol lars per bushel ):

Farm price 7.24 8.10 7.20 5.40 5.65 5.75 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.10 6.20

Variabl e cos ts of production (dol lars ):

Per acre 123 126 127 127 127 129 131 133 136 139 141 144

Returns over variable cos ts (dol la rs per acre):

Net returns 194 249 199 120 132 138 142 145 146 148 153 157Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat.


Table 23. U.S. soybeans a nd products long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

SoybeansArea (mi l l ion a cres ): Pla nted 75.0 77.2 76.0 74.0 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 Ha rves ted 73.8 75.7 75.1 73.1 74.1 74.6 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.1Yield: bus hels /harves ted acre 41.9 39.3 44.4 44.9 45.3 45.8 46.2 46.6 47.1 47.5 48.0 48.4Supply (mi l l ion bus hels ) Begi nning s tocks , September 1 215 169 140 185 197 204 205 215 219 222 226 223 Production 3,094 2,971 3,335 3,280 3,360 3,415 3,470 3,505 3,535 3,570 3,600 3,635 Imports 16 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Tota l s upply 3,325 3,160 3,490 3,480 3,572 3,634 3,690 3,735 3,769 3,807 3,841 3,873Dis pos ition (mi l l ion bushel s) Crush 1,703 1,560 1,655 1,665 1,700 1,730 1,760 1,785 1,815 1,840 1,870 1,895 Seed and res idua l 91 115 135 137 138 139 140 141 141 142 142 143 Exports 1,362 1,345 1,515 1,480 1,530 1,560 1,575 1,590 1,590 1,600 1,605 1,610 Tota l di spos iti on 3,155 3,021 3,305 3,282 3,368 3,429 3,475 3,516 3,546 3,582 3,617 3,648Carryover s tocks , Augus t 31 Tota l ending stocks 169 140 185 197 204 205 215 219 222 226 223 226 Stocks/us e rati o, percent 5.4 4.6 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2Price (dol lars per bus hel) Soybean price, farm 12.50 14.90 11.35 10.35 10.65 10.75 10.85 10.90 10.95 11.05 11.20 11.35Variable cos ts of producti on (dol la rs): Per a cre 139 145 147 148 149 150 152 155 157 159 162 164Returns over va riable costs (dol l ars per a cre):

Net returns 385 440 357 317 333 342 349 353 359 365 376 385

Soybean oi l (mi l l ion pounds )

Begi nning s tocks , October 1 2,425 2,540 1,520 1,555 1,530 1,555 1,630 1,700 1,710 1,770 1,820 1,915 Production 19,740 17,830 18,935 19,065 19,480 19,845 20,205 20,510 20,875 21,180 21,540 21,850 Imports 149 350 200 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 Tota l s upply 22,314 20,720 20,655 20,780 21,180 21,580 22,025 22,410 22,795 23,170 23,590 24,005 Domes tic disa ppearance 18,310 18,000 17,900 18,150 18,425 18,650 18,825 19,000 19,125 19,250 19,325 19,400

Biodies el 1 4,900 4,900 5,000 5,250 5,500 5,700 5,850 6,000 6,100 6,200 6,250 6,300 Food, feed, a nd other indus tria l 13,410 13,100 12,900 12,900 12,925 12,950 12,975 13,000 13,025 13,050 13,075 13,100 Exports 1,464 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,350 2,600 Tota l demand 19,774 19,200 19,100 19,250 19,625 19,950 20,325 20,700 21,025 21,350 21,675 22,000 Endi ng stocks , September 30 2,540 1,520 1,555 1,530 1,555 1,630 1,700 1,710 1,770 1,820 1,915 2,005 Soybean oi l price (dol lars per lb) 0.519 0.530 0.510 0.510 0.510 0.515 0.518 0.520 0.525 0.530 0.535 0.540

Soybean meal (thous and short tons)

Begi nning s tocks , October 1 350 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Production 41,025 37,150 39,335 39,535 40,385 41,085 41,760 42,435 43,060 43,710 44,360 45,010 Imports 216 250 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Tota l s upply 41,591 37,700 39,800 40,000 40,850 41,550 42,225 42,900 43,525 44,175 44,825 45,475 Domes tic disa ppearance 31,550 29,500 29,750 30,200 30,750 31,250 31,725 32,200 32,675 33,175 33,675 34,175 Exports 9,741 7,900 9,750 9,500 9,800 10,000 10,200 10,400 10,550 10,700 10,850 11,000 Tota l demand 41,291 37,400 39,500 39,700 40,550 41,250 41,925 42,600 43,225 43,875 44,525 45,175 Endi ng stocks , September 30 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Soybean meal price (dol lars per ton) 393.53 470.00 315.00 260.00 262.00 265.00 269.00 270.50 271.50 274.00 278.50 283.00

Crushing yie lds (pounds per bushel ) Soybean oi l 11.59 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49 11.50 11.51 11.52 11.53 Soybean meal 48.18 47.64 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 Crush margin (dol lars per bushel) 3.00 2.35 1.97 1.66 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.60Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for s oybeans; October 1 for soybean oi l and soybean meal . 1/ His tory ba s ed on da ta reported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Informa ti on Adminis trati on.


Table 24a. U.S. rice long-term projections, tota l rice, rough bas isItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Area (thous and acres):

Planted 2,689 2,699 2,650 3,090 3,125 3,150 3,165 3,180 3,195 3,205 3,210 3,215 Harvested 2,618 2,677 2,621 3,056 3,091 3,116 3,130 3,145 3,160 3,170 3,175 3,180

Yield:

Pounds/harvested acre 7,067 7,417 7,318 7,320 7,389 7,462 7,530 7,603 7,674 7,741 7,805 7,871

Supply and use (mi l l ion hundredweight):

Beginning stocks 48.5 41.1 30.1 27.5 34.3 35.9 37.2 37.7 38.6 40.0 41.1 41.4 Production 185.0 198.5 191.8 223.7 228.4 232.5 235.7 239.1 242.5 245.4 247.8 250.3 Imports 19.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.4 Tota l supply 252.8 260.1 242.5 271.9 283.7 289.7 294.4 298.6 303.3 307.8 311.6 315.0

Domes tic us e and res idual 110.2 127.0 123.0 131.1 132.7 134.3 135.4 136.5 137.6 138.8 140.0 141.2 Exports 101.6 103.0 92.0 106.5 115.1 118.2 121.3 123.5 125.7 127.9 130.2 132.5 Tota l use 211.8 230.0 215.0 237.6 247.8 252.5 256.7 260.0 263.3 266.7 270.2 273.7

Ending stocks 41.1 30.1 27.5 34.3 35.9 37.2 37.7 38.6 40.0 41.1 41.4 41.0 Stocks /us e ratio, percent 19.4 13.1 12.8 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.3 15.0

Price (dol lars per hundredweight):

Average farm price 14.30 15.00 15.20 14.80 15.10 15.30 15.60 15.80 16.10 16.30 16.60 16.90

Variable costs of production (dol lars):

Per acre 546 562 566 568 571 577 587 597 608 619 630 642

Returns over variable costs (dol lars per acre):

Net returns 465 551 546 516 545 564 588 604 627 643 665 689Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.


Table 24b. U.S. rice long-term projections, long-gra in rice, rough bas isItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23


Planted 1,794 1,989 1,900 2,325 2,350 2,370 2,380 2,390 2,400 2,405 2,410 2,415 Harvested 1,740 1,973 1,877 2,297 2,322 2,342 2,351 2,361 2,371 2,376 2,381 2,386

Yield:




Domes tic us e & res idual 77.9 95.0 91.0 99.0 100.5 102.0 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.1 107.2 108.3 Exports 66.8 72.0 60.0 74.0 82.0 84.5 87.0 88.5 90.0 91.5 93.0 94.5 Tota l use 144.8 167.0 151.0 173.0 182.5 186.5 190.0 192.5 195.0 197.6 200.2 202.8


Price (dol lars per hundredweight): Average farm price 13.40 14.20 14.70 14.00 14.20 14.50 14.70 15.00 15.20 15.50 15.70 16.00Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.

Table 24c. U.S. rice long-term projections , medium- and s hort-gra in rice, rough bas isItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23


Planted 895 710 750 765 775 780 785 790 795 800 800 800 Harvested 878 704 744 759 769 774 779 784 789 794 794 794

Yield:




Domes tic us e & res idual 32.2 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.9 Exports 34.8 31.0 32.0 32.5 33.1 33.7 34.3 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.2 38.0 Tota l use 67.0 63.0 64.0 64.6 65.3 66.0 66.7 67.5 68.3 69.1 70.0 70.9


Price (dol lars per hundredweight): Average farm price 16.50 17.00 16.50 16.70 17.00 17.30 17.50 17.80 18.00 18.30 18.60 18.90Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.


Table 25. U.S. upland cotton long-term projectionsItem 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Area (mi l l ion acres ):


Yiel d:

Pounds/harves ted acre 772 790 800 805 810 815 820 825 830 835 840 845

Supply and use (thousand bales ):

Beginning stocks 2,572 3,081 5,624 4,644 5,064 5,734 5,954 5,974 5,844 5,764 5,634 5,554 Producti on 14,722 16,790 13,200 15,400 16,700 16,500 16,400 16,300 16,400 16,400 16,500 16,400 Imports 13 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Supply 17,307 19,876 18,829 20,049 21,769 22,239 22,359 22,279 22,249 22,169 22,139 21,959

Domestic us e 3,278 3,375 3,425 3,475 3,525 3,575 3,625 3,675 3,725 3,775 3,825 3,875 Exports 11,120 10,875 10,750 11,500 12,500 12,700 12,750 12,750 12,750 12,750 12,750 12,750 Tota l use 14,398 14,250 14,175 14,975 16,025 16,275 16,375 16,425 16,475 16,525 16,575 16,625

Ending s tocks 3,081 5,624 4,644 5,064 5,734 5,954 5,974 5,844 5,764 5,634 5,554 5,324 Stocks /use ratio, percent 21.4 39.5 32.8 33.8 35.8 36.6 36.5 35.6 35.0 34.1 33.5 32.0

Pri ce (dol la rs per pound):

Farm price 0.883 0.680 0.680 0.685 0.690 0.695 0.700 0.705 0.710 0.715 0.720 0.725

Variable costs of production (dol la rs ):

Per acre 480 525 540 544 549 555 564 574 585 595 606 617

Returns over variable costs (dol lars per acre):

Net returns 366 184 157 155 161 164 165 165 165 164 165 165Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.


Table 26. U.S. sugar long-term projectionsItem Units 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Sugarbeets Planted area 1,000 acres 1,233 1,244 1,137 1,097 1,169 1,209 1,201 1,177 1,160 1,152 1,152 1,155 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,213 1,215 1,095 1,058 1,126 1,165 1,157 1,134 1,117 1,110 1,110 1,113 Yield Tons/acre 23.8 29.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 Production Mil. s. tons 28.8 35.6 28.9 28.0 30.0 31.1 31.0 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.4

Sugarcane Harvested area 1,000 acres 828 849 834 834 840 845 842 839 837 836 838 840 Yield Tons/acre 33.7 35.7 35.8 35.9 36.0 36.2 36.4 36.6 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.3 Production Mil. s. tons 27.9 30.4 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.3

Supply: Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,378 2,007 2,216 2,136 1,818 1,738 1,817 2,041 2,186 2,197 2,121 2,035 Production 1,000 s. tons 8,482 8,825 8,461 8,360 8,759 9,016 9,042 8,995 8,983 9,017 9,092 9,183 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,894 5,105 4,808 4,695 5,048 5,265 5,281 5,224 5,197 5,212 5,259 5,319 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,587 3,720 3,653 3,664 3,711 3,751 3,762 3,772 3,786 3,806 3,833 3,864 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 3,632 3,249 3,513 3,516 3,288 3,137 3,328 3,478 3,517 3,497 3,469 3,462

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,883 1,289 1,328 1,451 1,454 1,460 1,463 1,397 1,470 1,472 1,473 1,474Imports from Mexico 1,000 s. tons 1,071 1,500 1,725 1,605 1,374 1,217 1,405 1,621 1,586 1,566 1,536 1,528Other imports 1,000 s. tons 677 460 460 460 460 460 460 460 460 460 460 460

Total supply 1,000 s. tons 13,492 14,081 14,191 14,012 13,865 13,890 14,187 14,514 14,686 14,712 14,682 14,680

Use: Exports 1,000 s. tons 269 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 11,313 11,590 11,779 11,919 11,852 11,798 11,871 12,060 12,214 12,316 12,372 12,406 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total use 1,000 s. tons 11,485 11,865 12,054 12,194 12,127 12,073 12,146 12,335 12,489 12,591 12,647 12,681

CCC surplus disbursements1 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 2,007 2,216 2,136 1,818 1,738 1,817 2,041 2,186 2,197 2,121 2,035 1,999

Raw sugar price:New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 27.93 22.12 24.05 29.76 33.05 28.64 25.83 24.71 24.92 26.19 27.96 28.43

Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 67.80 58.38 54.89 59.65 65.96 66.31 62.04 59.23 58.42 59.32 61.31 62.95Sugarcane Dol./ton 47.10 39.38 40.66 45.50 48.38 45.46 43.03 41.97 42.10 43.19 44.72 45.23

Note: Marketing year beginning October 1 for sugar. 1/ CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.


Table 27. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar yearsItem Unit 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Production area1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 9,788 10,770 10,611 10,624 10,643 10,664 10,694 10,726 10,759 10,794 10,831 10,869Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 4,037 4,017 4,012 4,008 4,005 3,995 3,987 3,978 3,970 3,962 3,955 3,947Vegetables 1,000 acres 5,751 6,753 6,599 6,615 6,638 6,669 6,707 6,748 6,789 6,832 6,876 6,922

SupplyProduction, farm weight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 71,020 69,664 69,650 69,733 69,822 69,916 70,016 70,121 70,233 70,349 70,472 70,600Citrus Mil. lbs. 23,596 23,474 23,148 22,917 22,687 22,460 22,236 22,014 21,793 21,575 21,360 21,146Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 42,256 40,823 41,027 41,232 41,438 41,646 41,854 42,063 42,273 42,485 42,697 42,911Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 5,168 5,367 5,475 5,585 5,696 5,810 5,926 6,045 6,166 6,289 6,415 6,543

Vegetables2 Mil. lbs. 117,006 125,100 123,866 124,665 125,473 126,279 127,093 127,915 128,734 129,562 130,397 131,239Fresh market Mil. lbs. 41,305 41,399 45,614 45,914 46,218 46,516 46,818 47,123 47,422 47,725 48,030 48,338Processing Mil. lbs. 36,598 39,631 37,519 37,744 37,970 38,198 38,427 38,658 38,890 39,123 39,358 39,594Potatoes Mil. lbs. 36,016 39,149 36,017 36,198 36,379 36,560 36,743 36,927 37,112 37,297 37,484 37,671Pulses Mil. lbs. 3,088 4,921 4,716 4,810 4,906 5,004 5,104 5,206 5,311 5,417 5,525 5,636

Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 188,026 194,764 193,516 194,399 195,295 196,195 197,109 198,036 198,967 199,911 200,869 201,839

Imports, farm weightFruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 62,646 64,966 66,906 68,929 71,014 73,162 75,376 77,658 80,009 82,432 84,929 87,502

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 39,871 41,235 42,392 43,581 44,804 46,061 47,353 48,682 50,048 51,452 52,896 54,380Vegetables Mil. lbs. 22,776 23,732 24,515 25,348 26,210 27,101 28,023 28,976 29,961 30,979 32,033 33,122

UseExports, farm weight

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 35,101 36,497 37,391 38,310 39,255 40,226 41,224 42,250 43,306 44,391 45,506 46,654Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 15,737 16,156 16,440 16,731 17,028 17,332 17,643 17,962 18,289 18,623 18,966 19,317Vegetables Mil. lbs. 19,364 20,341 20,951 21,580 22,227 22,894 23,581 24,288 25,017 25,767 26,540 27,337

Domestic use3

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 215,571 223,233 223,031 225,018 227,054 229,132 231,261 233,443 235,670 237,952 240,291 242,687Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 95,153 94,742 95,601 96,584 97,598 98,645 99,726 100,841 101,992 103,178 104,402 105,663Vegetables Mil. lbs. 120,418 128,491 127,429 128,434 129,456 130,487 131,535 132,602 133,679 134,774 135,889 137,024

Farm sales value4

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 24,908 25,567 26,092 26,628 27,166 27,716 28,277 28,809 29,352 29,906 30,470 31,046Citrus $ Mil. 3,241 3,443 3,495 3,547 3,591 3,636 3,682 3,719 3,756 3,793 3,831 3,870Noncitrus $ Mil. 14,814 15,100 15,398 15,701 16,010 16,326 16,648 16,944 17,246 17,554 17,867 18,185Tree nuts $ Mil. 6,853 7,024 7,200 7,380 7,564 7,753 7,947 8,146 8,350 8,558 8,772 8,992

Vegetables $ Mil. 21,165 19,872 19,778 19,693 20,037 20,357 20,683 21,002 21,326 21,655 22,002 22,356Fresh market $ Mil. 14,425 12,270 12,448 12,629 12,809 12,992 13,178 13,367 13,558 13,752 13,949 14,149Processing $ Mil. 1,880 1,948 1,974 2,001 2,027 2,054 2,081 2,109 2,137 2,166 2,195 2,224Potatoes $ Mil. 3,759 3,571 3,588 3,624 3,679 3,734 3,790 3,847 3,904 3,963 4,022 4,083Pulses $ Mil. 1,101 2,084 1,768 1,439 1,522 1,577 1,633 1,679 1,726 1,774 1,836 1,900

Nursery and greenhouse5 $ Mil. 15,598 15,676 15,755 15,834 15,913 15,992 16,072 16,153 16,233 16,315 16,396 16,478

Other horticulture crops6 $ Mil. 812 836 861 887 909 932 955 974 994 1,013 1,034 1,054

Total horticulture crops $ Mil. 62,483 61,951 62,486 63,041 64,025 64,997 65,987 66,938 67,905 68,888 69,903 70,935

Producer prices7

Fresh fruits 2008=100 95.8 96.8 98.9 100.7 102.6 104.6 106.5 108.3 110.1 111.9 113.8 115.6Citrus 2008=100 102.0 110.1 113.4 116.3 118.9 121.5 124.3 126.8 129.4 132.0 134.7 137.4Noncitrus 2008=100 93.1 95.1 96.5 98.0 99.4 100.8 102.3 103.6 104.9 106.3 107.6 109.0

Tree nuts 2008=100 130.0 138.3 138.9 139.6 140.3 141.0 141.7 142.4 143.1 143.8 144.5 145.2

Vegetables 2008=100 113.2 90.8 91.3 90.3 91.3 92.2 93.0 93.9 94.7 95.6 96.5 97.4Fresh vegetables 2008=100 111.3 85.0 78.3 78.9 79.5 80.1 80.8 81.4 82.0 82.7 83.3 83.9Potatoes (fresh) 2008=100 98.1 77.3 84.4 84.9 85.7 86.6 87.4 88.3 89.1 90.0 91.0 91.9Pulses (dried) 2008=100 104.9 124.5 110.3 88.0 91.2 92.7 94.1 94.9 95.6 96.3 97.7 99.2

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 2008=100 108.1 98.0 99.6 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.3 105.6 107.0 108.3 109.7 111.11/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. Fruits include melons. 2/ Utilized production is used for potatoes. Pulses include edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. Excludes melons. 3/ In farm or fresh weight units. 4/ Production values are used for fruits and nuts, and for processing vegetables. Farm cash receipts are used for other vegetables and horticulture crops. 5/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, colored peppers, and fruit and vegetable transplants. 6/ Includes honey, maple syrup, mustard, hops, mint oils, taro, ginger root, and coffee from Hawaii. 7/ Producer price indexes for farm commodities from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for fresh fruits include melons.Data sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Table 28. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal yearsItem Unit 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Exports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 4,392 4,842 5,392 5,541 5,694 5,851 6,013 6,178 6,349 6,524 6,704 6,889 Citrus $ Mil. 1,036 1,009 1,426 1,438 1,449 1,459 1,468 1,477 1,484 1,491 1,497 1,502 Noncitrus $ Mil. 3,356 3,833 3,966 4,103 4,245 4,392 4,544 4,702 4,865 5,033 5,207 5,388 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,826 2,881 3,316 3,375 3,434 3,495 3,556 3,617 3,680 3,743 3,806 3,871 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,327 1,291 1,324 1,357 1,391 1,426 1,462 1,499 1,537 1,576 1,616 1,656 Tree nuts $ Mil. 5,147 6,106 7,000 7,288 7,588 7,900 8,225 8,564 8,916 9,283 9,666 10,063 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 12,364 13,830 15,707 16,203 16,716 17,246 17,794 18,360 18,945 19,551 20,176 20,823

Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 2,251 2,154 2,208 2,264 2,321 2,379 2,439 2,500 2,563 2,628 2,694 2,762

Processed1 $ Mil. 3,483 3,959 4,084 4,213 4,346 4,484 4,625 4,771 4,922 5,077 5,237 5,403 Total vegetables $ Mil. 5,734 6,113 6,293 6,477 6,667 6,863 7,064 7,272 7,485 7,705 7,932 8,165

Other horticulture Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 353 358 363 368 373 378 383 389 394 399 405 411 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,478 1,582 1,647 1,716 1,787 1,860 1,937 2,018 2,101 2,188 2,278 2,373 Wine $ Mil. 1,264 1,321 1,373 1,426 1,482 1,539 1,599 1,661 1,726 1,793 1,862 1,935 Beer $ Mil. 349 349 360 370 382 393 405 418 430 443 457 471

Other2 $ Mil. 4,368 5,091 6,257 6,450 6,648 6,853 7,063 7,280 7,504 7,735 7,973 8,218

Total horticulture $ Mil. 25,911 28,644 32,000 33,010 34,054 35,132 36,246 37,397 38,586 39,814 41,083 42,395

Fresh produce3 $ Mil. 6,643 6,996 7,600 7,804 8,014 8,230 8,452 8,679 8,912 9,152 9,398 9,651

Processed produce3 $ Mil. 6,309 6,840 7,400 7,588 7,781 7,978 8,181 8,389 8,602 8,820 9,044 9,274

Imports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 7,125 7,618 8,000 8,331 8,675 9,034 9,408 9,797 10,202 10,624 11,064 11,521 Citrus $ Mil. 525 516 604 627 651 677 703 730 759 788 819 850 Noncitrus $ Mil. 6,600 7,101 7,396 7,704 8,024 8,358 8,705 9,067 9,444 9,836 10,245 10,671 Processed fruits $ Mil. 4,263 4,358 4,500 4,703 4,916 5,138 5,370 5,613 5,866 6,131 6,408 6,698 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,840 1,762 1,824 1,888 1,954 2,022 2,093 2,166 2,242 2,320 2,401 2,485 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,714 1,801 2,000 2,100 2,206 2,316 2,433 2,555 2,683 2,818 2,959 3,107 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 13,102 13,777 14,500 15,135 15,797 16,489 17,211 17,965 18,752 19,573 20,431 21,327

Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 5,722 5,831 6,200 6,480 6,772 7,077 7,396 7,730 8,078 8,442 8,823 9,221

Processed1 $ Mil. 3,915 4,202 4,600 4,787 4,981 5,184 5,394 5,613 5,841 6,079 6,326 6,583 Total vegetables $ Mil. 9,637 10,033 10,800 11,266 11,753 12,261 12,790 13,343 13,920 14,521 15,149 15,804

Other horticulture Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,522 1,624 1,700 1,724 1,748 1,773 1,798 1,823 1,849 1,875 1,902 1,929 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,534 2,569 2,700 2,825 2,956 3,092 3,235 3,385 3,541 3,705 3,877 4,056 Wine $ Mil. 4,777 5,084 5,400 5,650 5,912 6,185 6,472 6,772 7,085 7,413 7,756 8,116 Beer $ Mil. 3,512 3,722 4,000 4,129 4,262 4,399 4,541 4,687 4,838 4,994 5,155 5,321

Other2 $ Mil. 4,321 4,749 5,300 5,548 5,807 6,078 6,362 6,659 6,970 7,295 7,636 7,992

Total horticulture $ Mil. 39,405 41,557 44,400 46,276 48,234 50,277 52,409 54,633 56,955 59,377 61,906 64,544

Fresh produce3 $ Mil. 12,848 13,448 14,200 14,810 15,447 16,111 16,804 17,527 18,281 19,067 19,887 20,742

Processed produce3 $ Mil. 8,178 8,560 9,100 9,490 9,897 10,322 10,764 11,226 11,708 12,210 12,734 13,2811/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, and other products that contain horticulture ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry.Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

U.S. Livestock

High feed prices, the economic recession, and drought in the Southern Plains of the United States (which extended through much of the middle of the country in 2012) have combined to reduce producer returns and lower production incentives in the livestock sector over the past several years. As a result, total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to continue to decline in 2013, with per capita consumption of red meat and poultry falling below 200 pounds for the first time since 1990. Over the rest of the projection period, higher net returns and improved forage supplies lead to expansion of meat and poultry production.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. red meat and poultry production

Billion pounds

Beef

Pork

Broilers

Despite improved returns for cow-calf operators in 2011 and 2012, drought over the past two years will prevent producers from expanding beef cow inventories until 2014. Lower beef cow inventories and expected heifer retention are expected to lead to declines in beef production through 2015. Production then rises in the remainder of the projection period as returns support herd expansion. Beef cow numbers rise from about 30 million head at the beginning of 2014 to 33 million in the last several years of the projection period. The total cattle inventory drops to 89 million head at the beginning of 2014 before expanding to about 94 million at the end of the projection period. Rising slaughter weights also contribute to the longer term increases in beef production.

As feed costs decline, pork producers are expected to increase farrowings, with pork production projected to rise over the next decade. Production increases will also be supported by productivity gains in the breeding herd and increased slaughter weights.

After declining in 2012 and 2013, poultry production rises through the end of the projection period, but at lower rates than in the 1980s and 1990s. Production of both broiler and turkey meats are projected to expand. Production growth is expected to come from both higher bird numbers and higher average weights at slaughter. Increased demand is expected to strengthen broiler prices, although poultry will face competition from increasing red meat production from 2015 forward.


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. per capita meat consumption

Pounds per capita, retail weight

Beef

Broilers

Pork

In the near term, declines in overall meat production result in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption in the United States. Annual average consumption of red meats and poultry falls from over 221 pounds per capita in 2004-07 to less than 198 pounds in 2013, the first time per capita consumption will be below 200 pounds since 1990. As production increases over the remainder of the projection period, per capita consumption of red meats and poultry increases but reaches only about 209 pounds by 2022.

Per capita beef consumption declines through 2015, before rising moderately over much of the remainder of the projection period. The near-term decline reflects reductions in beef production through 2015. As beef production increases in subsequent years, per capita consumption generally grows.

Per capita pork consumption remained flat in 2012 reflecting a 2 percent rise in production

and a large increase in U.S. pork exports. A gradual increase in per capita pork consumption is projected after 2013 as production continues to rise and export gains moderate.

After declining in 2012, poultry production is projected to grow through the rest of the decade. Per capita consumption rises through the end of the projection period and, in contrast to red meats, surpasses levels of the past decade.


30

50

70

90

110

130

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Nominal U.S. livestock prices

Dollars per hundredweight

Beef cattle: Steers, 5-area

Broilers: 12-city market price

Hogs: National base

During the initial years of the projection period, prices in the livestock sector reflect reductions in total meat and poultry production in recent years. After increasing through 2015, beef cattle prices decline for several years as production expands starting in 2016. Hog prices rise in the near term but then decline in 2015-16 as red meat production increases. Over the remainder of the projection period, livestock prices rise, reflecting a moderate pace of production expansion combined with increasing domestic use and export demand.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Beef

Pork

Poultry

U.S. meat exports

Billion pounds

The projected rise in U.S. meat and poultry exports over the next decade reflects steady global economic growth, a further depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the continued foreign demand for selected meat cuts and parts from the large U.S. market. Most U.S. beef exports are high-quality, grain-fed beef that typically go to Mexico, Canada, and

Pacific Rim nations. A continuing recovery is assumed for U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea, export markets that were closed to the United States for several years following the first U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in December 2003. Beef exports by major beef exporting countries—Australia and Canada—increase as herds are rebuilt.

U.S. imports of processing beef increase in the projection period as herd rebuilding and relatively low beef cow slaughter in the United States raise import demand. As more beef demand in East Asian markets is met by U.S. grain-fed beef, exports of grass-fed beef to those markets from Australia and New Zealand are likely to decline, diverting more grass-fed product to the United States.

Production efficiency in the U.S. pork sector enhances the sector’s international competitiveness. Longer term U.S. pork export gains will be determined by costs of production in the United States relative to competitors’ costs. Production costs tend to be lower in countries such as Brazil that have established or are developing integrated pork industries. However, Brazilian pork producers’ ability to export to some markets is limited because some countries do not recognize Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Thus, Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. pork exports, while Brazil’s pork exports expand to other South American markets, China, and Hong Kong. Russia is assumed to continue using investment and trade policies to facilitate expansion of its domestic pork industry and limit reliance on imports, affecting pork exports from the United States and Brazil the most.

U.S. broiler exports rise from 2013 through the rest of the projection period. Major U.S. export markets include China and Mexico, but U.S. broiler exports also have been increasing to a number of other countries. Longer term gains in these markets reflect their economic growth and increasing consumer demand. International demand for broilers also remains strong because of its lower cost relative to beef and pork. U.S. poultry producers continue to face strong competition from other major exporters, particularly Brazil. Over the projection period, most exports from Thailand and China will continue to be fully cooked products, although Thai export gains also reflect the reopening of trade in uncooked chicken products to the EU. As noted for pork, Russia is assumed to also support its domestic poultry industry with investment and trade policies.


8

9

10

11

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202010

15

20

25

U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow

Million cows

Milk cows

Output per cow

Milk produced per cow(1,000 pounds)

Milk production is projected to continue rising over the projection period. The long-term upward trend in output per cow continues, while milk cow numbers decrease after 2012.

Following increases in 2005-08 and again in 2011 and 2012, milk cow numbers are projected to resume a more typical long-term path of year-to-year declines in 2013-22.

U.S. milk output per cow is projected to increase through the projection period, reflecting continued technological and genetic developments.

Domestic commercial use of dairy products increases somewhat faster than the growth in U.S. population over the next decade. The demand for cheese is expected to rise due to greater consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. The slow decline in per capita consumption of fluid milk products is expected to continue.

The United States is expected to be well positioned to expand exports of dairy products. Commercial U.S. dairy exports are projected to increase steadily over the next decade, reaching record levels on both a fat and a skim-solids basis. Production increases in other the major dairy exporting countries are expected to lag growth in global import demand.

After declining in 2012-15, nominal farm-level milk prices are projected to gradually rise over the rest of the projection period, with increases less than the overall rate of inflation. Real price decreases largely reflect efficiency gains in production, which result from technological improvements and consolidation in the sector.



Table 30. Beef long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 585 600 540 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 26,195 25,587 24,520 23,995 23,774 24,249 24,470 25,311 25,614 25,915 25,990 26,347 Change from previous year Percent -0.4 -2.3 -4.2 -2.1 -0.9 2.0 0.9 3.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.4

Farm production Mil. lbs. 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 Total production Mil. lbs. 26,291 25,683 24,616 24,091 23,870 24,345 24,566 25,407 25,710 26,011 26,086 26,443 Imports Mil. lbs. 2,057 2,242 2,620 2,837 3,013 3,064 3,151 3,189 3,257 3,335 3,375 3,431 Total supply Mil. lbs. 28,933 28,525 27,776 27,478 27,433 27,959 28,267 29,146 29,517 29,896 30,011 30,424

Exports Mil. lbs. 2,785 2,469 2,450 2,409 2,383 2,443 2,562 2,699 2,843 2,982 3,122 3,267

Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 600 540 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

Total consumption Mil. lbs. 25,548 25,516 24,776 24,519 24,500 24,966 25,155 25,897 26,124 26,364 26,339 26,607 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 81.9 81.2 78.3 76.9 76.3 77.1 77.1 78.7 78.8 78.9 78.2 78.3 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 57.3 56.8 54.8 53.8 53.4 54.0 54.0 55.1 55.1 55.2 54.7 54.8 Change from previous year Percent -3.8 -0.8 -3.6 -1.8 -0.8 1.1 0.0 2.1 0.1 0.1 -0.9 0.2

Prices:

Beef cattle, farm $/cwt 113.25 121.16 126.60 127.88 128.36 127.04 124.96 123.89 127.04 128.19 130.14 128.97 Calves, farm $/cwt 141.59 163.90 165.40 169.13 173.65 174.34 167.86 163.47 165.08 165.52 168.23 171.47 Steers, 5-area $/cwt 114.73 122.47 128.00 129.29 129.78 128.44 126.34 125.26 128.45 129.61 131.58 130.40 Yearling steers, Oklahoma City $/cwt 133.74 145.54 147.25 150.57 154.59 155.20 149.44 145.53 146.97 147.36 149.77 152.65

Feed price ratio:

Beef cattle-corn Ratio 21.9 19.5 16.7 23.7 31.3 29.5 28.4 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.2

Cattle inventory 1,000 head 92,682 90,769 89,700 89,000 90,651 91,782 92,555 93,448 93,808 94,016 94,491 94,815Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 30,850 29,883 29,785 29,500 29,593 30,193 31,088 32,220 32,619 32,995 33,304 33,473Total cow inventory 1,000 head 39,999 39,112 38,900 39,000 38,644 39,213 40,083 41,190 41,569 41,931 42,224 42,378

Table 29. Per capita meat consumption, retail weightItem 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Pounds

Beef 57.3 56.8 54.8 53.8 53.4 54.0 54.0 55.1 55.1 55.2 54.7 54.8 Veal 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pork 45.7 45.7 45.0 45.2 46.1 47.0 47.6 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 48.1 Lamb and mutton 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Total red meat 104.3 103.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 102.2 102.7 104.0 104.0 104.1 103.6 104.0

Broilers 82.9 80.3 79.0 80.0 81.2 82.5 83.5 84.3 84.8 85.0 85.4 85.6 Other chicken 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 Turkeys 16.1 16.3 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 Total poultry 100.4 98.0 96.4 97.7 99.3 100.8 102.1 103.0 103.6 103.8 104.3 104.6

Red meat & poultry 204.7 201.7 197.3 198.0 199.9 203.0 204.8 207.1 207.6 207.9 207.9 208.6


Table 31. Pork long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 541 542 675 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 22,758 23,258 22,940 23,283 23,905 24,557 24,986 25,258 25,488 25,756 25,995 26,340 Change from previous year Percent 1.4 2.2 -1.4 1.5 2.7 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.3

Farm production Mil. lbs. 17 17 17 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Total production Mil. lbs. 22,775 23,275 22,957 23,302 23,924 24,576 25,005 25,277 25,507 25,775 26,014 26,359 Imports Mil. lbs. 803 806 800 830 842 854 867 880 894 908 923 938 Total supply Mil. lbs. 24,119 24,623 24,432 24,782 25,416 26,080 26,522 26,807 27,051 27,333 27,587 27,947

Exports Mil. lbs. 5,189 5,448 5,445 5,551 5,682 5,806 5,850 5,898 5,994 6,080 6,169 6,235


Total consumption Mil. lbs. 18,388 18,500 18,337 18,581 19,084 19,624 20,022 20,259 20,407 20,603 20,768 21,062 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 58.9 58.9 57.9 58.3 59.4 60.6 61.3 61.6 61.5 61.6 61.6 62.0 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 45.7 45.7 45.0 45.2 46.1 47.0 47.6 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 48.1 Change from previous year Percent -4.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6

Prices: Hogs, farm $/cwt 66.47 63.47 67.19 67.85 63.81 62.11 62.52 63.43 65.55 67.94 69.97 70.22 National base, live equivalent $/cwt 66.11 60.73 64.25 65.24 61.95 60.60 61.00 61.88 63.95 66.28 68.26 68.50

Feed price ratio:

Hog-corn Ratio 12.8 10.2 8.8 12.6 15.6 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.0 14.8

Hog inventory, December 1, previous year 1,000 head 64,925 66,361 65,200 65,916 67,582 69,330 70,478 71,207 71,821 72,541 73,181 74,103

Table 32. Young chicken long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 773 590 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 37,201 36,889 36,445 37,039 37,860 38,756 39,504 40,165 40,736 41,158 41,665 42,101 Change from previous year Percent 0.8 -0.8 -1.2 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0

Production Mil. lbs. 36,803 36,494 36,055 36,643 37,455 38,341 39,081 39,735 40,300 40,717 41,219 41,650 Total supply Mil. lbs. 37,683 37,194 36,767 37,349 38,162 39,050 39,792 40,446 41,012 41,430 41,933 42,365

Change from previous year Percent 1.2 -1.3 -1.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0

Exports Mil. lbs. 6,971 7,195 7,050 7,035 7,190 7,371 7,479 7,580 7,682 7,763 7,842 7,907


Consumption Mil. lbs. 30,121 29,399 29,117 29,714 30,372 31,079 31,713 32,266 32,730 33,067 33,491 33,858 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 96.5 93.5 92.0 93.2 94.5 96.0 97.2 98.1 98.7 98.9 99.4 99.7 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 82.9 80.3 79.0 80.0 81.2 82.5 83.5 84.3 84.8 85.0 85.4 85.6 Change from previous year Percent 0.8 -3.1 -1.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3

Prices:

Broilers, farm Cents/lb. 46.7 51.0 52.9 53.2 55.7 57.4 57.9 58.7 59.9 60.7 61.9 62.7 12-city market price Cents/lb. 79.0 85.2 88.5 90.2 94.4 97.3 98.1 99.5 101.6 102.9 104.9 106.2

Feed price ratio:

Broiler-feed1 Ratio 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.91/ Broiler feed price based on 58 percent corn price and 42 percent soybean price, as used by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.


Table 33. Turkey long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 192 211 250 225 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 5,791 5,981 5,790 5,894 6,067 6,216 6,346 6,451 6,503 6,571 6,653 6,730 Change from previous year Percent 2.6 3.3 -3.2 1.8 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2

Production Mil. lbs. 5,715 5,903 5,714 5,818 5,988 6,135 6,263 6,367 6,419 6,486 6,567 6,642 Total supply Mil. lbs. 5,928 6,136 5,984 6,065 6,221 6,368 6,496 6,601 6,652 6,719 6,800 6,876

Change from previous year Percent 1.2 3.5 -2.5 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1

Exports Mil. lbs. 703 777 690 635 640 646 651 657 663 669 676 682


Consumption Mil. lbs. 5,015 5,109 5,069 5,220 5,371 5,513 5,635 5,734 5,779 5,840 5,915 5,984 Per capita Pounds 16.1 16.3 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 Change from previous year Percent -2.0 1.2 -1.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4

Prices:

Turkey, farm Cents/lb. 67.9 71.7 71.2 71.0 68.5 66.6 65.9 64.8 66.1 67.8 69.2 69.4 Hen turkeys, National Cents/lb. 102.0 105.8 105.0 104.6 101.0 98.2 97.2 95.6 97.4 100.0 102.1 102.3

Feed price ratio:

Turkey-feed1 Ratio 5.7 5.1 4.3 5.6 6.5 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.91/ Turkey feed price based on 51 percent corn price, 28 percent soybean price, and 21 percent wheat price, as used by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Table 34. Egg long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Beginning stocks Mil. doz. 19 28 26 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Production Mil. doz. 7,655 7,693 7,610 7,602 7,640 7,702 7,763 7,833 7,904 7,975 8,038 8,103 Change from previous year Percent 0.3 0.5 -1.1 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Imports Mil. doz. 21 20 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Total supply Mil. doz. 7,695 7,741 7,660 7,652 7,684 7,746 7,807 7,877 7,948 8,019 8,082 8,147

Change from previous year Percent 0.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

Hatching use Mil. doz. 952 935 930 935 949 964 979 991 1,002 1,010 1,019 1,027 Exports Mil. doz. 276 298 256 259 262 265 268 271 274 277 280 283

Ending stocks Mil. doz. 28 26 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Consumption Mil. doz. 6,439 6,481 6,448 6,439 6,454 6,496 6,540 6,595 6,652 6,711 6,764 6,817 Per capita Number 247.6 247.5 244.4 242.3 241.1 240.8 240.5 240.6 240.7 240.9 240.9 240.9 Change from previous year Percent 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Prices:

Eggs, farm Cents/doz. 97.5 99.6 98.8 102.1 106.2 109.6 111.2 112.9 114.5 116.2 118.3 120.4 New York, Grade A large Cents/doz. 115.3 117.8 116.8 123.0 128.0 132.0 134.0 136.0 138.0 140.0 142.5 145.0

Feed price ratio:

Egg-feed1 Ratio 8.4 7.4 6.0 8.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.91/ Egg feed price based on 75 percent corn price and 25 percent soybean price, as used by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.


Table 35. Dairy long-term projectionsItem Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Milk production and marketings: Number of cows 1,000 9,194 9,225 9,125 9,090 9,075 9,065 9,045 9,020 8,990 8,965 8,935 8,910 Milk per cow Pounds 21,346 21,640 21,880 22,270 22,755 23,310 23,675 24,080 24,500 25,000 25,375 25,830 Milk production Bil. lbs. 196.2 199.7 199.7 202.4 206.5 211.3 214.1 217.2 220.3 224.1 226.7 230.1 Farm use Bil. lbs. 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Marketings Bil. lbs. 195.3 198.7 198.7 201.6 205.7 210.5 213.4 216.5 219.6 223.5 226.1 229.5

Supply and use, milkfat basis:

Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 Marketings Bil. lbs. 195.3 198.7 198.7 201.6 205.7 210.5 213.4 216.5 219.6 223.5 226.1 229.5 Imports Bil. lbs. 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 209.6 213.4 213.6 216.5 220.8 225.7 228.5 231.4 234.4 238.0 240.5 243.8

Domestic commercial use Bil. lbs. 189.2 193.2 193.8 195.6 198.6 202.2 204.6 207.1 209.8 212.9 214.9 217.5 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 9.4 9.1 8.8 9.7 10.8 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.1 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.9 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 209.6 213.4 213.6 216.5 220.8 225.7 228.5 231.4 234.4 238.0 240.5 243.8

CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply and use, skim solids basis:

Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 12.2 11.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 Marketings Bil. lbs. 195.3 198.7 198.7 201.6 205.7 210.5 213.4 216.5 219.6 223.5 226.1 229.5 Imports Bil. lbs. 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 212.7 216.3 215.0 218.6 223.2 228.1 231.0 234.1 237.2 241.1 243.7 247.1

Domestic commercial use Bil. lbs. 168.3 171.7 170.6 172.2 175.3 177.8 179.2 181.0 182.5 185.0 186.0 187.4 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 32.5 33.7 32.8 34.4 35.7 38.1 39.5 40.8 42.3 43.7 45.2 47.2 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 11.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 212.7 216.3 215.0 218.6 223.2 228.1 231.0 234.1 237.2 241.1 243.7 247.1

CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Prices: All milk $/cwt 20.14 18.55 19.55 19.35 19.30 19.50 19.65 19.95 20.15 20.40 20.55 20.80 Cheese $/lb. 1.82 1.73 1.78 1.75 1.75 1.78 1.80 1.83 1.86 1.89 1.91 1.93 Butter $/lb. 1.95 1.62 1.67 1.75 1.72 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.76 1.77 1.79 1.79 Nonfat dry milk $/lb. 1.55 1.32 1.46 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.60 Dry whey $/lb. 0.53 0.59 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.63Dairy projections were completed in November 2012. CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.Totals may not add due to rounding.

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate IndicatorsFarm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures

High commodity prices are projected to lead to record values of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net farm income in 2013. Grain and oilseed prices along with export values and farm cash receipts are then projected to decline in 2014-15, but grow over the rest of the projection period as a return to steady domestic and international economic growth, a weaker dollar, and continuing production of biofuels support longer term demand for U.S. agricultural products. Although farm production expenses also increase beyond 2015, net farm income remains historically high. U.S. retail food prices are projected to rise faster than the overall rate of inflation in 2013 in part due to effects of the 2012 U.S. drought on farm commodity prices. For the remainder of the projection period, consumer food price increases average somewhat less than the general inflation rate, largely reflecting higher livestock production which limits consumer meat price increases.

Net farm income is projected to reach record levels in 2013, reflecting the runup in prices for many agricultural commodities, due in part to the 2012 U.S. drought, as well as large crop insurance indemnities paid to the sector. While income declines from the 2013 record through 2015, it remains well above the average of the previous decade (2001 to 2010).

Strengthening global food demand, a weaker dollar, and continuing biofuel demand are major factors underlying projections of rising cash receipts after 2015.

Lower Government payments and rising farm production expenses after 2015 offset most of the gains in cash receipts and other sources of farm income.


0

25

50

75

100

125

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. net farm income

Billion dollars

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Direct Government payments

Total direct Government payments

Billion dollars

Direct Government payments to farmers average about $9.7 billion over the next decade, below the average of $16 billion in 2000-10. The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and fixed direct payments are the largest Government payments to the agricultural sector throughout the projection period, although payments under the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program jump to $1.8 billion in 2015 following the decline in commodity prices from recent highs.

High crop prices have made arable land more valuable, so rental rates for land in the CRP have risen. As a result, CRP payments are projected to rise from about $2.0 billion in 2013 to $2.6 billion in 2022.

Fixed direct payments are projected at nearly $5 billion annually.

As commodity prices decline from recent high levels, payments under the ACRE program associated with 2014 crops and paid in 2015 are projected to rise to $1.8 billion. However, with relatively low enrollment in the ACRE program and projected stability in longer run commodity prices, projections of ACRE payments average less than $40 million annually over 2016-22.

With high prices, Government payments have a smaller role in the agricultural sector’s income. Government payments, which represented more than 8 percent of gross cash income in 2005, are 2 to 3 percent during the projection period. As a result, the sector relies more on the market for its income.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Other ManufacturedFarm origin

U.S. farm production expenses

Billion dollars

Total farm production expenses are projected to fall in 2014-15 from high levels in 2013 as declining crop prices lower feed costs and lower planted acreage and lower near-term crude oil prices reduce manufactured input expenses. Beyond 2015, production expenses rise less rapidly than the overall rate of inflation through 2022. While interest expenses and some energy-related costs rise faster than the general inflation rate, expenses for farm-origin inputs, particularly feed and livestock, are up less than the general inflation rate. Other nonfarm-origin expenses increase at near the overall rate of inflation.

Interest costs rise faster than the general inflation rate over the projection period, due to increasing debt level as well as interest rates rising from the low rates of recent years.

Production expenses for fuel and oil also rise faster than the general inflation rate after 2015, largely reflecting increases in crude oil prices. Reductions in planted acreage in 2014 and 2015 initially lower fertilizer expenses in this period, but these costs rise faster than inflation later in the projection period.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. agricultural trade value

Billion dollars

Exports

Imports

Fiscal year

After increasing in fiscal 2013, the value of U.S. agricultural exports declines for 2 years as prices for major field crops fall from current highs. Agricultural exports then rise through the remainder of the projections because of sustained global economic growth, strengthening agricultural demand, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Domestic economic growth boosts demand for U.S. agricultural imports. (Fiscal years are October 1 through September 30 and are named after the second calendar year that they span. For example, fiscal year 2013 runs from October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013.)

The value of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reach $145 billion in 2013, a record that largely reflects high commodity prices. With prices for many crops projected to fall over the following 2 years, export values decline. Agricultural export values are then projected to grow over the rest of the decade and surpass the 2013 record. World economic growth, particularly sustained relatively high growth in developing countries, provides a foundation for increases in global food demand, trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Continued global biofuel demand also contributes to strong commodity prices and gains in export values. Furthermore, the continuing depreciation of the U.S. dollar remains an important factor underlying projected gains in U.S. exports.

The share of U.S. agricultural exports represented by high-value products (HVP) is projected to grow and exceed 70 percent by the end of the projection period. Much of the growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural products.

U.S. agricultural import values rise throughout the projection period and exceed $160 billion by 2022. These increases are boosted by gains in U.S. consumer incomes and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural imports is assumed to continue, contributing more than 40 percent of the overall increase in agricultural imports in the projection period.

The agricultural trade balance is expected to continue declining for several years from the record surplus of almost $43 billion in 2011, falling below $15 billion in 2015. The surplus then averages about $17 billion over the rest of the projection period.


-1

1

3

5

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. food inflation

Percent change

Consumer Price Index (CPI), all items

Food CPI

U.S. retail food price increases have exceeded the general inflation rate over the past several years, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs combined with stronger post-recessionary food demand.

Overall food price inflation in 2013 is expected to remain above the general rate of inflation, in part due to effects of the 2012 U.S. drought on commodity prices. The transmission of commodity price changes to retail prices typically takes several months, so much of the drought’s impact is expected to occur in 2013. The drought reduced production and raised prices for corn and soybeans (and soybean meal), which affect retail food prices for meats due to production impacts of higher feed prices. Inflation should be above the historical average for food categories such as cereals and bakery products as well.

For the remainder of the projection period, consumer food price increases average less than the general inflation rate. This moderation largely reflects livestock production increases, which facilitate gains in per capita meat consumption and limit retail meat price increases.

Retail prices for food away from home largely reflect the overall rate of inflation. As the U.S. economy continues to rebound, income gains will support growth in food consumption away from home. Nonetheless, competition in the fast-food and foodservice industries tends to moderate away-from-home price increases.

Food expenditures for meals away from home are projected to rise faster than expenditures for food at home, thus accounting for a growing share of total food spending.



Table 36. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Billion dollarsCash receipts: Crops 208.3 218.9 216.5 197.8 188.0 192.8 197.8 201.6 204.9 208.4 212.5 217.2 Livestock and products 166.0 170.7 174.6 175.2 175.7 178.7 178.8 181.8 186.0 189.5 192.9 195.3 All commodities 374.3 389.5 391.1 373.0 363.6 371.5 376.6 383.4 390.9 397.8 405.4 412.5Farm-related income 26.1 31.3 36.2 28.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.4Government payments 10.4 10.8 10.9 9.4 10.9 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6Gross cash income 410.8 431.7 438.1 410.9 401.3 407.9 413.3 420.6 428.5 435.9 443.9 451.4

Cash expenses 276.1 297.9 316.0 299.8 296.9 303.7 310.4 317.6 325.2 331.7 339.2 346.0Net cash income 134.7 133.8 122.1 111.1 104.4 104.2 102.9 103.0 103.2 104.2 104.6 105.4

Value of inventory change -5.2 -11.7 16.5 -2.7 0.7 3.4 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5Non-money income 22.8 24.5 25.2 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.4 33.3Gross farm income 428.5 444.5 479.9 434.7 429.0 439.0 444.4 452.6 460.7 468.9 478.0 486.2

Noncash expenses 22.0 23.0 23.3 24.8 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.1 28.8 29.6 30.4 31.1Operator dwelling expenses 12.5 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3Total production expenses 310.6 333.8 352.3 337.8 336.2 343.8 351.3 359.4 368.0 375.4 383.8 391.5Net farm income 117.9 110.7 127.6 96.9 92.7 95.2 93.1 93.2 92.7 93.5 94.2 94.7The projections were completed in December 2012.


Table 37. Summa ry of U.S. a gricul tura l tra de l ong-term projections , fi s ca l yea rs

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Billion dollarsAgricul tura l exports (va lue): Lives tock, poultry, and dairy 27.3 29.8 29.8 30.8 31.8 33.3 34.7 36.2 38.0 39.7 41.6 43.3 Livestock products 17.3 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.4 26.4 Dai ry products 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.5 Poultry products 5.5 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.4 Grai ns and feeds 38.0 33.4 37.1 35.6 30.7 32.9 34.1 35.7 36.9 38.2 39.6 41.2 Coa rs e gra ins 14.0 11.7 11.6 12.4 10.4 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 Feeds a nd fodder 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 Oi l seeds and products 29.2 28.6 31.4 27.6 25.0 26.4 27.2 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.6 30.4 Soybeans and products 25.4 24.5 27.0 23.1 20.3 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.6

Horti cultura l products 1 25.9 28.6 32.0 33.0 34.1 35.1 36.2 37.4 38.6 39.8 41.1 42.4 Frui ts a nd vegetables , fresh 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 Frui ts a nd vegetables , processed 6.3 6.8 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 Tree nuts, whole a nd proces sed 5.1 6.1 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 Cotton 8.8 6.6 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 Suga r and tropi ca l products 5.5 6.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1

Other exports 2 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3

Tota l agricul tura l exports 137.4 135.8 145.0 142.1 137.4 144.4 149.3 154.5 159.8 165.0 170.5 176.4

Ma jor bulk products 3 57.9 49.5 53.5 48.6 42.2 45.3 46.7 48.1 49.1 50.0 51.1 52.4 Hi gh-va lue product exports 4 79.5 86.3 91.5 93.5 95.2 99.1 102.6 106.4 110.7 115.0 119.4 124.0 Hi gh-va lue product s hare 57.9% 63.6% 63.1% 65.8% 69.3% 68.6% 68.7% 68.9% 69.2% 69.7% 70.1% 70.3%

Million metric tonsAgricul tura l exports (volume):

Bul k commodi ty exports 131.3 111.9 110.0 108.5 119.7 127.3 130.3 133.4 135.9 138.1 140.5 142.9

Billion dollars

Lives tock and dairy products 11.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 Livestock a nd meats 8.6 9.7 10.3 11.1 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 Dai ry products 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 Grai ns and feeds 8.4 9.5 11.6 10.7 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 Gra in products 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 Oi l seeds and products 7.7 8.7 10.0 9.1 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.4 Vegetable oi ls 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 Horti cultura l products 39.4 41.6 44.4 46.3 48.2 50.3 52.4 54.6 57.0 59.4 61.9 64.5 Frui ts a nd vegetables , fresh 12.8 13.4 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 Frui ts a nd vegetables , processed 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 Wine and beer 8.3 8.8 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 Suga r and tropi ca l products 25.6 28.3 32.3 34.2 36.5 38.1 38.4 39.6 41.1 42.7 44.5 46.5 Suga r and re lated products 5.1 5.2 5.5 6.2 7.4 7.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.4 Cocoa , coffee, a nd products 12.0 11.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.0 Other imports 5 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1

Tota l agricul tura l i mports 94.5 103.4 115.0 117.8 122.8 127.8 131.8 136.8 142.2 148.0 154.1 160.5

Net agricul tura l trade balance 42.9 32.4 30.0 24.3 14.6 16.6 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.0 16.4 15.9Sources : U.S. Department of Agricul ture a nd Burea u of Cens us, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Agricul tura l imports (va lue):

U.S. trade va lue projecti ons were completed i n December 2012. For updates of the nea rby yea r forecas ts , see USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, publ i shed in February, May, Augus t, and November.

1/ Includes wi ne, beer, essential oi l s , nursery crops , hops, a nd mint. 2/ Incl udes unma nufa ctured tobacco, planting seeds , and nona lcohol ic beverages . 3/ Includes bulk gra ins , soybeans , cotton, and toba cco. 4/ High-va lue product (HVP) exports i s ca l cula ted a s tota l exports less bulk commoditi es . HVP's include semi processed a nd process ed gra ins and oi l seeds , ani ma ls a nd a ni ma l products , horticul tura l products , a nd s uga r and tropical products . 5/ Incl udes pla nti ng s eeds, toba cco, and cotton.


Table 38. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projectionsCPI category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Consumer price indexes

All food 227.842 233.777 241.4 247.0 252.6 258.2 263.6 269.4 275.6 281.9 288.4 294.8

Food away from home 231.401 237.986 245.1 251.5 257.8 264.0 270.1 276.3 282.9 289.7 296.7 303.8

Food at home 226.201 231.774 239.8 244.9 250.0 255.3 260.4 265.9 271.9 278.0 284.2 290.2

Meats 224.439 231.981 240.2 244.8 247.6 250.2 253.0 256.6 262.9 268.4 274.2 277.7Beef and veal 247.377 263.089 272.3 277.0 281.1 283.5 285.2 287.9 295.0 300.1 306.1 308.9Pork 206.053 206.612 214.1 218.3 218.7 221.0 225.1 229.9 236.1 242.7 249.0 253.4Other meats 207.310 210.862 217.9 222.6 225.8 229.1 233.0 237.1 241.6 246.3 250.9 255.1

Poultry 209.916 221.381 229.1 233.8 241.5 248.0 252.4 257.4 263.3 268.4 274.4 279.7Fish and seafood 260.493 266.652 274.7 282.4 290.3 298.4 306.8 315.4 324.2 333.3 342.6 352.2Eggs 210.492 217.141 224.5 233.5 241.5 249.5 253.8 258.1 262.4 266.7 271.9 277.2Dairy products 212.745 217.270 226.0 228.8 232.5 237.3 241.2 246.7 251.3 256.5 261.3 266.7

Fats and oils 219.163 232.579 238.5 243.4 248.9 254.8 260.5 266.9 273.2 279.7 286.2 293.1Fruits and vegetables 284.662 282.827 292.4 299.3 306.1 312.9 319.9 326.9 334.1 341.4 348.7 356.4Sugar and sweets 207.832 214.670 219.3 223.8 231.5 238.4 243.3 246.3 249.7 253.8 259.6 266.6Cereals and bakery products 260.311 267.682 276.4 280.1 284.7 291.7 298.5 305.4 312.4 319.5 326.8 334.6Nonalcoholic beverages 166.790 168.606 173.3 177.6 182.0 186.6 191.3 196.1 201.0 206.0 211.2 216.5Other foods 209.292 216.611 225.3 232.6 239.1 244.6 250.2 256.0 261.9 267.9 274.0 280.4

Food expenditures:

All food 1,317.8 1,376.7 1,439.4 1,493.0 1,548.2 1,607.4 1,664.9 1,726.1 1,790.6 1,857.6 1,927.2 1,998.3Food at home 676.6 699.9 729.2 750.0 771.7 796.7 819.3 844.2 870.0 896.4 923.6 950.6Food away from home 641.2 676.8 710.2 743.0 776.5 810.7 845.6 881.9 920.6 961.2 1,003.6 1,047.7

Changes in consumer food prices:

All food 3.7 2.6 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2

Food away from home 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Food at home 4.8 2.5 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1

Meats 8.8 3.4 3.5 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.3Beef and veal 10.2 6.4 3.5 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 2.5 1.7 2.0 0.9Pork 8.5 0.3 3.6 2.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.6 1.8Other meats 6.4 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7

Poultry 2.9 5.5 3.5 2.1 3.3 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9Fish and seafood 7.1 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8Eggs 9.2 3.2 3.4 4.0 3.4 3.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9Dairy products 6.8 2.1 4.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1

Fats and oils 9.3 6.1 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4Fruits and vegetables 4.1 -0.6 3.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2Sugar and sweets 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.4 3.0 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.7Cereals and bakery products 3.9 2.8 3.3 1.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4Nonalcoholic beverages 3.2 1.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5Other foods 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

1982-84=100

Billion dollars

Percent

List of TablesPage

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions............................................................................................13Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions......................................................................................14Table 3. Population growth assumptions................................................................................................15Table 4. Coarse grains trade long-term projections................................................................................44Table 5. Corn trade long-term projections.............................................................................................45Table 6. Barley trade long-term projections...........................................................................................46Table 7. Sorghum trade long-term projections.......................................................................................47Table 8. Wheat trade long-term projections...........................................................................................48Table 9. Rice trade long-term projections..............................................................................................49Table 10. Soybean trade long-term projections........................................................................................50Table 11. Soybean meal trade long-term projections...............................................................................51Table 12. Soybean oil trade long-term projections..................................................................................51Table 13. All cotton trade long-term projections.....................................................................................52Table 14. Beef trade long-term projections..............................................................................................53Table 15. Pork trade long-term projections..............................................................................................54Table 16. Poultry trade long-term projections..........................................................................................55Table 17. Acreage for major field crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions,

long-term projections..................................................................................................... 69Table 18. U.S. corn long-term projections...............................................................................................70Table 19. U.S. sorghum long-term projections........................................................................................71Table 20. U.S. barley long-term projections............................................................................................72Table 21. U.S. oats long-term projections................................................................................................73Table 22. U.S. wheat long-term projections.............................................................................................74Table 23. U.S. soybeans and products long-term projections..................................................................75Table 24a. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis............................................................................76Table 24b. U.S. rice long-term projections, long-grain rice, rough basis..................................................77Table 24c. U.S. rice long-term projections, medium- and short-grain rice, rough basis...........................77Table 25. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections................................................................................78Table 26. U.S. sugar long-term projections..............................................................................................79Table 27. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years..............................80Table 28. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years..............................81Table 29. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight..............................................................................87Table 30. Beef long-term projections.......................................................................................................87Table 31. Pork long-term projections.......................................................................................................88Table 32. Young chicken long-term projections......................................................................................88Table 33. Turkey long-term projections...................................................................................................89Table 34. Egg long-term projections........................................................................................................89Table 35. Dairy long-term projections.....................................................................................................90Table 36. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections...................................................96Table 37. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years..................................97Table 38. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections..........................98


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