Analysis of African Swine Fever epidemiology and pig value chains to underpin design of an ASF risk management strategy on the Kenya‐Uganda border

Closing workshop of the BecA‐ILRI‐CSIRO‐AusAID project (2011‐13): Understanding ASF epidemiology as a basis for control

2nd‐3rd October, 2013. Sarova PanAfric Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya

Project Presentation: Edward Okoth,ILRIProject introduction:Project introduction:

development context and learnings

Understanding ASF epidemiology as a fbasis for control

Introduction: Development context and learningsDevelopment context and learnings

Dr Edward OkothDr Edward OkothILRI

Field study coordinatorAfrican Swine Fever Epidemiology ProjectAfrican Swine Fever Epidemiology Project

Workshop presentations on project learnings & implications

1) Introduction:  development context and implications 2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurityadoption

• E periences & learnings from ke research &• Experiences & learnings from key research & development projects in Uganda

5)   Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and response to realise potential for pork production and marketing to contribute to food security 

Introduction: Development context and learnings

• Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders• Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders• Why the Kenya‐Uganda border study region?• Study design• Key learnings for development outcomes:• Key learnings for development outcomes:

– Smallholder pig sector has a key role in food security for poorest households

– pattern of ASF outbreaks– ASF impacts– Production risks and constraints– Production risks and constraints

• Ways forward: theory of change

Half the world’s meat comes from pigsPig numbers are growing in AfricaPig numbers are growing in Africa,

from a low base

8,000,000

9,000,000

Nigeria

6,000,000

7,000,000NigeriaUgandaBurkina Faso

4,000,000

5,000,000 MalawiAngola

2 000 000

3,000,000

4,000,000CameroonSouth Africa

1,000,000

2,000,000 MozambiqueCentral African Republic

02011201020092008200720062005200420032002

FEWSNET, African countries with >$1m pigs,

Smallholder pig sector is not well accounted for in pig sector planningl f k d d l k• Value of pork traded in Kenya commercial pork 

sector  1 billion K/shillings in 2005 (from Githigia 2010)

• Value of smallholder sector?? ?S llh ld t• Smallholder  sector:– Free range or tethered pigs– Low input systems– Livelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raiseLivelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raise weaners for sale; boar service; agistement

Farmers can get good income from pig keeping

One sow, average 10 piglets x 3 farrowings/year@ USD 12/piglet= USD 360/year= USD 360/year = 1 year secondary school feesfees

B t in the Ken a Uganda borderBut in the Kenya‐Uganda border region, 70% of farmers earnt less than USD 100 from their pigs in 2012USD 100 from their pigs in 2012.

ASF impacts are an important factorASF impacts are an important factor.

Kenya‐Uganda border region: important for d t di ASF id i l i t Af iunderstanding ASF epidemiology in eastern Africa

• Indicated as a source for outbreaks in other areas, e.g. into commercial pig sector near Nairobi

• This was confirmed by virus genotyping, with spread of ASF virus from Kenya‐Uganda border to coastal Kenya, 2011

• Opportunity to improve understanding of ASF  Coast

Kenya Districts

ith ASFgtransboundary epidemiology

Coast outbreak 2011 

with ASF virus

Many smallholders in the region keep pigsMany smallholders in the region keep pigs• c30% of households 

Census Pig Density km2

keep pigs• Low input pig keeping

0.5- 1.9

2-5

6-11

20-29

30 41

12-19p p g p g• 1‐2 pigs per household• localised value chains Infrastructure

30-41

42-55

56-74

75 -85

100 -328

• localised value chains• Commercial sector 

d d l d

Primary Road Route

!( Other Town

Major Town

Kenya Uganda Border

Secondary Road Route

underdeveloped• Indications of gap 

Lake

Density of pigs in Busia & Teso

between supply & demand for pork 

Districts, KENYA 2009 and Busia & Tororo Districts, UGANDA 2008(census data)

Pig keeping is growing fast: many new pig‐keepers. But it’s also dynamicBut it’s also dynamic: 

many farmers move in and out of pig keeping     

Continuity in Pig‐keeping since first started, by number of households (N=608) and District in study region

140160

180

80100120

204060 Discontinuous

Continuous

020

Busia_Ke TesoB i UBusia_Ug

TororoKenyaUganda

70% of pig keeping farmers in the region have cash incomes below MDG poverty lineProportion of sampled households in each of three

90%

Proportion of sampled households in each of three income strata, by District in project study region

Income strata

70%

80% Household cash income <$1.25/day

Household cash income

50%

60%Household cash income $1.25‐$5 /day

Household cash income 

30%

40% >$5/day

Household cash income is gross, from estimates

d d b h h ld

10%

20% provided by household interviewees from all sources including crops, remittances, off farm work.

0%Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo

Kenya Uganda

farm work. Totals in USD

Research design: starting point for integrating disciplinesstarting point for integrating disciplines

What do people do that causes ASFVirus

TRANSMISSIONPATHWAYSPeople

SOURCES

Carcasses

What do people do that causes ASF to spread?  Why?What would it take for people to

CarrierPig

SwillFeces

Undercooked meatPeoplePigs

Vehicles

Wildlife ReservoirsScavengers

Carcasses What would it take for people to behave differently? 

Pig immune 

ImmunePig

PigSlaughter wasteTicks (Vector)

Wildlife Reservoirs

ENVIRONMENT

systemNutrition

Co‐infection loadParasites

Vet services

Susceptible Pig Infected Pig

R d PiRecovered Pig

DeadPig

Research design: framework for modeling ASF epidemiologyframework for modeling ASF epidemiology

Sampling design: study regionSampling design: study region

• 32 villages randomly selected in randomised sub‐locations/parishes

• c. 20 households per village, randomly selected

• 2 additional villages gsampled purposively, post outbreakp

Data from  Pigs People When?1 Cross‐sectional survey * * Kenya: July–Aug 12(680 pig keeping households,  inc 640 in randomised clusters,; 40 purposive post outbreak)

Blood Serumfeces

Structured survey

Uganda: Sept ‐Nov 12

2 Longitudinal “sentinel pig” study (117 pigs & pig keeping households, randomised sub‐

*Blood serum 

feces

*Structured survey

Kenya: Sept 12‐Mar 13

Uganda:  Jan to June 13,sample of Cross‐section sample, 3xsample points@0,3.5,7 mths)

fecesSome tissue (Oct13) 

survey g

3 Pig value chain actors * * Jan June 133 Pig value chain actors, (extended social network survey)

*semi‐structured 

interviews

Jan ‐June 13

4 Farmer focus groups (biosecurity knowledge,capacity)

* Mar ‐June 13

capacity)

5 Outbreaks  * Opportunistic

6 Slaughter slabs *Blood, Tissue

Aug‐Oct13

Key learnings for development outcomes

Pigs have a key role in food security for the t h h ld

Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig

poorest households

100%

Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig keeping, by household income strata and District in project study region

Income strata

70%

80%

90% Household cash income <$1.25/dayHousehold cash income 

Income strata

50%

60%

70%$1.25‐$5/dayHousehold cash income >$5/day

20%

30%

40% Household cash income is gross and is from estimates provided by household interviewees from all sources including crops remittances

0%

10%

Busia Ke Teso Busia Ug Tororo

sources including crops, remittances, off farm work.  Pig income is from more detailed inquiry about pig sales during 2012, Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo

Kenya Ugandaboar service & agistment income. Totals in USD

Women participate quite equitably in pig ownership and decisions and do most pig care

Gender roles in some aspects of pig keeping and trading

60%

70% Female

M l

40%

50%

60% Male

Female & Male together

20%

30%

40% together

14% f h d f

0%

10%

20% 14% of heads of sampled pig keeping household heads are

0%Decisions on pig purchase

Ownership of pigs

Care of pigsfemale

ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality

Fate of pigs owned by surveyed households during 2012 and not 

ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality

200

p g y y gon farm at time of survey, by age/gender of pigs 

(N=696 pigs)• 17% of pigs that were on farm in 12 months prior to

150

20032 DIED

OTHER DISPOSALSOLD

months prior to household survey died before sale or other disposal. 

100153

52 17SOLD  p

• Interviewees described  clinical signs that indicate 

50

153

102 1215

3

gASF in 50% deaths.• 8.2% of interviewees, across

0PIGLETS

SUB‐ADULTS SOWS

7967

interviewees, across 70% of sampled villages, said they had experienced ASF SOWS

BOARSCASTRATED BOARS

poutbreaks in 2012 and lost pigs.

‘Rolling outbreaks”: ASF affects just a few households in a village at any one time

Outbreak data from 576 households interviewed August – November 20122012Randomly sampled villages (N=32)

Location of household where interviewee described an outbreak that occurred during 2011 (all months)

Disease, including ASF, is the biggest riskperceived by farmers for pig‐keeping

Risks to investment in pigs, by % of factors mentioned by farm household 

interviewees (N=683)60% of interviewees said disease was biggest risk

60%70%to their investment in

pigs. Some specifically mentioned ASF although

30%40%50%mentioned ASF although

we did not prompt farmers about ASF.

10%20%30%farmers about ASF.

Poor farmer knowledge 0%about ASF helps to

explain why it is not specifically mentionedspecifically mentioned more often.

Half the farms that have had outbreaks h h d 1 tb khave had >1 outbreak

Number of outbreaks on farm since pig keeping started by % of households that have had 1 outbreak

( 140 HH th t d ib d tb k f 640 HH l d)46%

45%50%

(n=140 HHs that described outbreaks of 640 HHs sampled)

32%

30%35%40%

14%15%20%25%

1%3%

5%

0%5%10%

Not specified 1 2 3‐5 6‐10 >10

Disease, including ASF, is the main reason farmers have moved in and out of pig keeping

90 Reasons for discontinuity in pig keeping by 

farmers have moved in and out of pig‐keeping

70

80 Various Other Reasons

number of discontinuous pig‐keeping households (n=271) by District

60

70Financial constraint

F d i

40

50 Feed constraint

Disease

20

30Disease

Conflict, 

0

10Sabotage

All died, disease0

Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo

Kenya Uganda

Farmers have adapted their pig‐keeping to di bl l f d hpredictable seasonal food shortages.

• Interviewees sell their pigs when food is in short 

60%

70% %hh food shortages for pigs

%hh food shortages for people

Food shortages for pigs and people occur at the same time 

hsupply• And buy a new piglet 50%

60%g p p

each year.  Farmer told us they sell pigs when food is in short supply

either immediately, or when food is again 

il bl f30%

40%when food is in short supply and buy a smaller pig immediately, or when food and 

available on farm20%

30%piglets are again available

0%

10%

But adapting to ASF is difficult for farmers because they can’t predict when ASF will strike

Farmer focus group about biosecurityAlupevillage, Uganda, 2013

Alternate theories of change:Alternate theories of change:

T li th b fit f th i t f f dTo realise the benefits of the pig sector for food security:EITHER1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together, holisticallyOR2) Effective ASF prevention detection and response will2) Effective ASF prevention, detection and response will open up the space for pig value chain actors to i t i d t dd th t i tinnovate in order to address other constraints

Workshop presentations on Project learnings & implications

1) Introduction:  development context and implications 2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurityadoption

• E periences & learnings from ke research &• Experiences & learnings from key research & development projects in Uganda

5)   Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and response to realise potential for pork production and marketing to contribute to food security