Project for Formulation of Comprehensive Development Master Plan in the Mombasa Gate City in Republic of Kenya

Inception Report

April 2015 JICA Consultant Team

NK/PADECO/EJEC

Table of Contents

1. Project Outline 2. Overview 3. Approach 4. Work Flow 5. Undertaking of GOK 6. Way forward

Annexes A Methodology of MP Formulation

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1 Project Outline

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Objective and Target

Objective of the Consulting Assignment: Formulate a Comprehensive Master Plan in the Mombasa Gate City including

implementation and management program, and prioritize intervention areas/flagship projects through collaborative work with Mombasa city county government and concerned organizations

Target Year: The target year of the Comprehensive Master Plan is 2040. Target Area: The Project will cover the area of the

Mombasa city county, it will be taken into consideration to cover surrounding area that are deeply relevant to the appropriate development of the Mombasa city county

Project Period: March 2015~ March 2017 Location Map

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Workflow Important benchmark

Understanding of current situation and development issues (situational analysis)

Formulation of development vision

Establishment of social and economic framework

Implementation of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment)

Formulation of structure plan and land use plan

Formulation of strategy of infrastructure development

Selection of priority areas and priority projects

Development of urban development management

Conduct of traffic volume survey/household survey

Traffic demand projection Formulation of urban traffic network

Development of database of urban transport

2017 2016 2015

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Implementation Structure (1)

Steering Committee (SC)

Working Groups (WG)

Executing Agency （Counterparts）

Stakeholders (SEA etc)

JICA Team

Consultation Report

Information sharing and discussion

Collaboration

Feed Back

Facilitation

Support JICA

Overall Supervision

Support

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Steering Committee(SC) Chair: Governor, Mombasa City County Member: Mombasa City County Government, National

Treasury, Ministry of Land, Housing and Urban Development, Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, Ministry of Industrialization and Enterprise Development, JICA Kenya Office, JICA Expert Team

Technical Working Group (proposed) Chair: To be selected from concerned

organizations Secretary: Chief Officer, Department of Lands,

Planning & Housing, Mombasa City County

Co-Chair: Leader, the JICA Expert Team Members: Government organizations, universities,

development partners, NGOs

• To monitor and supervise the entire project • To discuss and approve the reports • To coordinate among the relevant

organizations; and • To review and exchange views on major

issues arising from or in connection with the Project

Carry out surveys and analyze the current situation of the project area, prepare reports for presentation to SC, harmonize the presented reports, coordinate working team, anticipate challenges of sectoral plans with a view to ensure horizontal coordination among agencies

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Implementation Structure (2)

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Deliverables

Report Main Contents Timeline

1. Inception Report

• Approach • Plan of operation • Deliverables

April 2015

2. Progress Report

• Result of current situation and issues • Draft development vision • Social and economic framework

October 2015

3. Interim Report

• Structure Plan • Progress of traffic demand projection February 2016

4. Draft Final Report

• Draft Comprehensive Development Master Plan for Mombasa Gate City January 2017

5. Final Report • Final Comprehensive Development Master Plan for Mombasa Gate City March 2017

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In addition, SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) Report will be prepared separately after Draft Final Report is submitted for MP approval.

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Composition of JICA Consultant Team

Team Leader/Urban Development Land Use Plan Infrastructure Development 1 Housing Planning/Social Service Public-Private Partnership Urban Transport 1 Urban Transport 2/Infrastructure Development 2 Traffic survey/analysis Logistics plan Power/Telecommunication Water Supply/Sewerage Tourism Development/Cultural Heritage Solid waste management Organization/Human resources Socio economic analysis Social and Environmental Consideration

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2 Overview of the Project Area

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Geographical and natural condition: Mombasa city county is composed of islands

which is considered as constraints for land use, transport network, efficient land use, and balanced development

Social and economic condition: Security and employment is one of concerns of

general public Mombasa as gateway of Northern Corridor Mombasa port and SEZ need to be fully

utilized Urban environment/conditions as gateway of

Northern Corridor has to be strengthened

Preliminary Findings (development issues)

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3 Approach to MP Formulation

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Approaches

1. Formulation of Comprehensive MP that contributes to economic and social development along Northern Economic Corridor

2. Strengthening of urban function of Mombasa city county as gateway to Northern Economic Corridor and its formulation

3. Organization of working group to promote collaborative work between JICA project team, Mombasa city county, and concerned organizations

4. Formulation of Comprehensive MP that promotes and accelerates TICAD V 13

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Approaches (1)

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Logistics of Northern Economic Corridor, industrial development, resources/energy development, core urban areas will be improved/ strengthened through development of Mombasa city county

Formulation of Comprehensive MP that contributes to economic and social development along Northern Economic Corridor

Structure of Northern Economic Corridor and Comprehensive Mombasa MP

Northern Corridor (Road + Rail Link)Link of the Main Economicactivities within the CitiesInternational Boundary

Legend

Urban areaLake and Ocean

Indian Ocean

Logistics improvement(Operation,

custom, weight control)

Urban area(Nakuru)

Kenya

Logistics improvement(Operation, custom,

weight control)

Urban area(Nairobi Metropolitan Area)

Urban development along Northern Corridor

Border facility(One stop)

Inland

Tanzania

Uganda

Urban area(Kismu)

Victoria Lake

Mombasa as Gateway to Northern Corridor

Structure PlanLand Use PlanTransportInfrastructureSEZ

Boarder facility

Outbound

Urban area(Portbell)

Urban area(Kampala)

Mineral resources, energy development

Agro-business development

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Approaches (2)

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Strengthening of urban function of Mombasa city county as gateway to Northern Economic Corridor and its formulation

Structure of Plan that Connects Urban Cores and Transport Network (Nairobi)

Promote efficient, balanced and sustainable development by overcoming unique geographical conditions

Improve inefficient transport network

Promote urban development by overcoming natural conditions (e.g. water resources)

Promote urban development which contributes to solving social and economic condition

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Approaches (3)

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Organization of working group to promote collaborative work between JICA expert team, Mombasa city county, and concerned organizations Objective

Formed as collaborative working mechanism with concerned organizations shares information and understand the ideas of the MP

Sector composition (idea) Land use and settlements, Urban

transport, Socio-economy, Organization and institution, Socio environmental consideration

Members Government organizations,

universities, development partners, NGOs

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Approaches (4)

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Formulation of Comprehensive MP that promotes and accelerates TICAD V

Outcomes of Fifth Tokyo International Conference on

African Development (TICAD V)

Comprehensive MP for Mombasa Gate City

Promoting private sector-led growth

Accelerating infrastructure development

Empowering farmers as mainstream economic actors

Promoting sustainable and resilient growth

Creating and inclusive society for growth

Consolidating peace, stability and good governance

Land use plan/urban transport development/infrastructure development/urban management

Public and private investment for urban development (including PPP)

Investigation of possibility of investment by Japanese firms

Dissemination of priority programs/projects

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4 MP Formulation Flow

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Workflow (1) Overall

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2015 2016 2017

March~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach April~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach

Understanding of current situation and issues (situational analysis)

Formulation of development vision

Establishment of social and economic framework

Formulation of structure plan

Formulation of land use plan

Formulation of strategy of infrastructure development

Selection of priority areas and projects

Preparation of draft master plan

Strategic Environmental Assessment/Stakeholder Meeting

Reports ICR PR ITR DFR FR

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Workflow (2) Transport Sector

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2015 2016 2017

March~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach April~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach

Conduct of traffic volume survey/household survey

Development of future OD

Traffic demand projection

Formulation of urban traffic network

Development of database of urban transport

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Methodology

Secondary data/information is mainly used for current situation analysis

Interview and discussion will be conducted with concerned agencies and stakeholders

Working group is utilized throughout plan formulation period Confirmation of current situation analysis Discussion of planning aspect: development vision,

socio-economic framework, strategy, MP Share information among concerned organizations Request information from concerned organizations

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5 Undertaking of GOK

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Undertaking of MCG and GOK

Ensure that technologies and knowledge acquired by the Republic of Kenya nationals as a result of Japanese technical cooperation contributes to the economic and social development of the Republic of Kenya, ad that knowledge and experience acquired by the personnel of the Republic of Kenya from technical training as well as the equipment provided by JICA will be utilized efficiently in the implementation of the Project; and

Grant privileges, exemptions and benefits to members of the JICA missions and their families, which are no less favorable than those granted to experts and members of the missions and their families of third countries or international organizations performing similar missions in the Republic of Kenya.

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6 Way forward

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Way forward

Establishment of working group Start implementing situational analysis Preparation of traffic survey Understanding of contents and progress of

KMP including map preparation to be utilized for the MP formulation

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A Methodology of MP Formulation

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1. Review of Current Situation

Current situation is reviewed and analyzed through secondary data (except for traffic volume), interviewed with concerned agencies and discussed through working group

Sectors Items

Related policy and plans Kenya Vision 2030, medium and long term plans

Organizations and institutions

• Responsible agencies of concerned sectors • Task, projects, budget • Laws and regulations

Land use KMP progress on Mombasa spatial plan

Social infrastructure Road, public transport, sea port, airport, water supply, sewerage, drainage, solid waste, telecommunication

Social facility Schools, hospitals, community facilities, and housing

Tourism resources World heritage (culture), cityscape, beaches, others

Social issues Social issues including informal settlements

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2. Traffic Volume Survey/Household Survey

Objectives: Quantify traffic movements and demands in the region. Typical and basic approach of urban transport planning since 1970. Nairobi MP study adopted similar survey in 2013 by JICA, but it will be the first attempt in Mombasa. Schedule:

April-June: planning, employment, training, June and Beyond (schedule not-fixed): volume survey, household interview, and coding and analysis to follow

• Need cooperation of Traffic Police assistance on site,

PR/Advertisement to general public by Mombasa Government. • Review results by KMP/ISUDP traffic surveys • Review public/school holidays to reflect on survey schedule

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Outline of Traffic Survey (1)

Preparation and Selection of Firms (April-May) Location of survey, geographical zones are designed by JICA

Team together with concerned organizations in Mombasa city county.

Selection of firms will be done by April/May, and the subcontractor(s) will employ supervisors, survey staff, enumerators, and conduct appropriate training.

Traffic Counting Surveys 10-15 locations incl. 5 major intersection, 16/24 hrs duration, 4-5

vehicle type, 20-40 surveyors (2shifts) will be necessary per location and

assistance by police is required for certain surveys Survey must be done on normal weekday in good weather, no

special events, avoid school/bank holidays, and Ramadan (from 18 June, one month)

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Outline of Traffic Survey (2)

Interview Surveys Household Interview Surveys: 4000-4500 households

(+10K answers) will be surveyed. Household members will be asked about their travel behavior for a particular day. Large number of surveyors need to be employed and trained.

Road Side Interviews (at same location of counting in suburb): stop the car and interview to drivers/passengers for their destination. Police assistance and public notice are essential

Bus User Interviews: surveyors get on buses and interview passengers

Coding / Enumeration All counting and interview results need to be coded

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Interview on road Police officer helps to stop vehicles

Colombo Sri Lanka 2006

Interview on bus

Counting on road side

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Outline of Traffic Survey (3) Survey Plan & Scheduling

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Example: Maputo in 2012

Survey Schedule in Maputo Study in 2012

• Consider suitable dates for traffic survey. • Organize a meeting with transport engineers/police officers in Mombasa to decide the

location of traffic counting in March/early April.

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Outline of Survey (4) Survey Results

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Summary of Traffic Counting Survey Results, Nairobi, 2013, showing comparison of 12hrs traffic between 2013/2004. However, Mombasa does not have many existing surveys

Vehicle type composition in

Nairobi, 2004/2013, shows recent boost of MC, Private cars

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Outline of Survey (5) Survey Results

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Travel characteristics will be analyzed based on results of interview surveys, in order to quantify existing and future travel demands and spatial patters.

Type of Public Transport Vehicle Type of Public Transport Users

Type of Trip Purpose Access/Igress Modes

Example Public Transport User Survey Results, Nairobi, 2013,

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3. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

SEA will be conducted to follow the SEA guideline of Kenya

Through SEA requirements of the County

Government Act for master plan formulation are covered in SEA process Civic education, web management, stakeholder

meeting

Screening Scoping Detail SEA Validation

Including Stakeholder

Meeting

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4. Identification of Development Constraints

Urban conditions: urban structure, land use Urban transport: road, public transport,

transport network Infrastructure: water supply, sewerage, drainage,

solid waste, power, telecommunication Urban management: organization, institution

Development constraints will be identified and compiled in terms of urban environment and Mombasa as gateway of Northern Corridor

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5. Formulation of Development Vision

Development vision will be formulated based on potential, issues, related policy and plans, and WG discussion

Potential, issues

Policy, plans

Position of Northern Corridor

WG discussion

Draft Development Vision

Development Vision

Stakeholder Meeting

Steering Committee

Steps of Formulation of Development Vision

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6. Socio - Economic Framework

Population and economic framework will be set as a base for MP formulation Kenya Vision 2030 and other plans will be

referred

Phasing Short term (2020) Mid term (2030) Long term (2040)

Development scenario Low development scenario Medium development scenario High development scenario

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7. Formulation of Structure Plan

Structure plan will be formulated based on existing condition, policy and plans, comparison with other cities

Consideration of formulation of structure plan Development of CBD Development of multi-core Linkage with SEZ, port Linkage with urban

transport

Image of Structure Plan 39

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8. Formulation of Land Use Plan

Land use plan will be formulated to improve urban conditions as well as strengthen function as gateway for Northern Economic Corridor

Image of Land Use Plan

Examine classification of land use zones that improve land use efficiency

Examine land use demand for residential use, commercial use, industrial use, and others

Formulation of land use plan: CBD and core urban area, commercial, industry, residential, coast/mangrove, conservation

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9. Traffic Demand Projection

Target Year: 2015(present), 2020, 2030, and 2040 Objective: Quantify expected travel demand and movement in the region, and identify bottleneck for different transport modes. Methodology: (to be conducted during October 2015–Feb 2016) 1) Create OD-tables (present) reproducing existing travel demand

patterns by modes in the region 2) Prepare transport network (present), calibrate the model by

estimating demand flows on existing network, and adjust OD tables and network data.

3) Prepare OD tables and transport network for future (2020, 30&40) according to scenarios.

4) Estimate future travel demand patterns on the future network.

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Traffic Demand Projection (1) JICA STRADA

Comprehensive transport demand simulation software, which has been used in JICA’s assistance since 1990s, based on the 4 step modelling approach.

One package will be provided to Mombasa city county, with relevant data base JICA team will train staff for the use of JICA STRADA

Result of simulation, Nairobi (Page 44-46) How to illustrate the result with quantity

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Traffic Demand Projection (2) Four Step Approach

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Traffic Demand Projection (3) Network Analysis

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Sample results; Vehicle Traffic per Road Capacity 2013 Nairobi (Present Situation)

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Traffic Demand Projection (4) Network Analysis

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Sample results; Vehicle Traffic per Road Capacity 2030 Nairobi (Do-nothing Case) suggests fully congested with more than 150% traffic, particular along the radial arterials from center

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Traffic Demand Projection (5) Network Analysis

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Sample results; vehicle Traffic per Road Capacity 2030 Nairobi (Case with full BRT & Rail promotion) suggests passenger transport development can alleviate the surface congestion in future

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10. Formulation of Urban Transport Network

Objective: quantify necessary future transport capacity by modes, and show the strategy for accommodating the demand. Schedule: mainly 2016 April-August Methodology: 1) Review existing transport services and identify the

bottlenecks in the network. Review service levels of roads, ferries, rail, formal/informal bus services, freights, etc. Plan possible countermeasures with quantity

2) Review existing transport plans for all related sectors, assess its necessity, and quantify as future service,

3) Apply the simulation and assess by with/without analysis 4) Re-plan the countermeasures.

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Close relation to #9 Traffic Demand Projection

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Urban Transport Network (1) – Review Targets

Existing Plans and Proposals Vision 2030 Three JICA projects in Mombasa (SEZ, Port, Road) KMP/ISUDP on-going studies Other transport studies (PRC Rail, Swiss Rail) The Northern Corridor Studies

Local knowledge through stakeholder Meetings County government staff, police officers and freight

operators know bottlenecks and accidental points in the network

Need to review institutional background for informal bus services (Matatu), and long distance buses

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Reflect on Local Knowledge through Stakeholder Meetings

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Maputo in 2013

Maputo in 2013

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Urban Transport Network (2) – Strategic Plan

Measures to be Developed (DFR, Apr-Aug 2016)

Segregation of heavy vehicles from other traffic Exclusive routes for freights, one-way / hourly restriction

Network capacity expansion and integration • New bridges/bypass, intersection improvement, • bus terminal, Matatu service regulation • Parking restriction with off-street parking facilitation • New transport services (New Mass service like AGT, water

transport), etc

Assessment of Funding Sources State Budget, Road Fund, JICA Loan, PPP, JOIN equity, etc

Evaluation of County Government Capacity Special organization for transport regulation and

facilitation

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11. Formulation of development strategy for Infrastructure

Sector development strategy will be prepared in line with development vision, land use plan, urban transport plan, and socio economic conditions

Power: power demand, transmission Water supply/sewerage: water supply demand, water resources Solid waste: solid waste generation, landfill site, transfer station Telecommunication: telecommunication for a variety of users Tourism: tourism infrastructure, tourism products/promotion, cityscape, beach tourism Social services: policy and direction on education, health, community facility

Development Vision and Socio-economic Framework • Development vision shows the direction of urban development • Socio economic framework shows future population and future GDP

Strategy on Infrastructure Development Gap analysis, Development direction, Target, Strategy

Urban Development Strategy • Structure plan: function of core areas, urban network, CBD • Land use plan: function of each area and its control measures

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12. Formulation of development strategy for socio economic aspect

Socio economic aspect focuses on housing, social facilities, and tourism.

Housing Provision and allocation of housing Informal settlements will be considered

Social facilities Social facility focuses on education and health Development strategy includes number and allocation

Tourism Tourism development policy, basic plan, including development

of tourism infrastructure and tourism promotion

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13. Development of urban development management

Urban development management is proposed for organizational strengthening, institutional strengthening, human resources development

Organizational strengthening plan Role sharing among national government and local government Plan formulation, development permit, urban development

implementation, land registration Institutional strengthening plan

Regulation for urban development management Guideline to be utilized for urban management

Human resources development plan Planning skills, development permit, urban development

project implementation

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14. Priority Areas and Priority Projects

Based on the development terms (short, medium, long), priority areas and priority projects will be selected. For selection, conditions mentioned below will be considered. Impact of the project, technical difficulty, burden of Kenya

(Mombasa), sustainability Synergy of Mombasa MP and Northern Economic Corridor MP Ownership of Kenyan (Mombasa) government

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15. Others

Other activities will be conducted for smooth and effective MP formulation

Seminar Seminar will be conducted to introduce the result of MP

formulation Stakeholder meetings

Stakeholder meetings will be conduct in line with SEA Guideline and County Government Act

Stakeholder meetings will be utilized as a tool to link government and stakeholders

Training in Japan Training in Japan will be provided to selected counterpart staff

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End of the Report