Profile of the Upstate EconomyMonthly figures are seasonally adjusted U.S. Employment, All...
Transcript of Profile of the Upstate EconomyMonthly figures are seasonally adjusted U.S. Employment, All...
Opportunity UpstateFocus on Taxes & Tax Climate
Profile of the Upstate EconomyKent Gardner, Ph.D.
Chief EconomistCenter for Governmental Research
Center for Governmental Research
Founded in 1915 by George Eastman
Project-oriented 501(c)(3) serving state & local government primarily in NYS
16 staff members Public sector management
consulting, economics & public finance, human services restructuring, education reform, health care
U.S.
NYS
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 13Q2 13Q4
Real GDP (% chg from prior period, annualized)
GDP growth slows;pos territory since 09Q3
NYS
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
8,500
8,600
8,700
8,800
8,900
9,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 F13 A13 J13 A13 O13 D13
1000
Job
s
Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted
U.S. Employment, All Industries
Employment regains pre-recession levels
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
8,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,000
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 F13 A13 J13 A13 O13 D13
1000
Job
s
monthly seasonally adjusted
U.S. Employment, SA
No rebound in manufacturing (no surprise)
NYS
280.0
290.0
300.0
310.0
320.0
330.0
340.0
350.0
360.0
370.0
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 F13 A13 J13 A13 O13 D13
1000
Job
s
Monthly: seasonally adjusted
Construction stuck far below peak
U.S.
NYS
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
% o
f Lab
or F
orce
Unemployment Rate
UE Rate Declining Steadily
Labor Force Participation Recovers
U.S.
NYS
87%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
% o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Monthly: seasonally adjusted
Labor Force Participation Rate
Share of pop in labor force roughly constant:
54% Downstate43% Upstate
Loan to Value Ratio 13Q3
Loan to Value Ratio 13Q3NYS Equity Share 94%
Downstate ~92%(87% nationally)
NYS Neg Equity Share 6%; Downstate ~8%(13% nationally)
Source: CoreLogic
3%
17%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
MichiganOhio
IllinoisIndiana
MissouriUpstate
New JerseyWisconsin
TennesseeMassachusetts
PennsylvaniaNorth Carolina
GeorgiaCalifornia
MinnesotaMaryland
VirginiaWashington
DownstateFloridaTexas
Largest 21 “States”
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS
Total Private Job Growth ‘97-’13
-1.0%
5.2%
-6% -1% 4% 9%
FloridaMichigan
OhioMissouriGeorgia
CaliforniaIllinois
New JerseyNorth Carolina
WisconsinTennessee
IndianaMaryland
VirginiaUpstate
WashingtonPennsylvania
MinnesotaMassachusetts
DownstateTexas
Largest 21 “States”
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS
Total Private Job Growth ‘07-’13
Downstate
U.S.
Upstate
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS
Annual Private Jobs Change ‘07-’13
New York City
Long Island
Binghamton
Rochester
Buffalo & Albany
93%
95%
97%
99%
101%
103%
105%
107%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
New York City Long Island West-Roc-Put AlbanyPoughkeepsie Binghamton Utica SyracuseRochester Buffalo
Job Growth Since 2007
Private JobsAnnual Avg Comparison
-1.7%
1.3%2.3%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%Poughkeepsie
Vero BeachBinghamton
ClevelandMilwaukee
AlbanyNew Orleans
St. LouisRochester
UticaSyracuseMemphis
ColumbusWashington
RiversideBuffalo
New York CityDetroitAtlantaDenverAustinDallas
OrlandoSan JoseNashvilleHouston
Tampa
Top & Bottom 10 + NYS of largest
50 MSAs+1.8% avg
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS
Change in Nonag Jobs Nov12-Nov13
-1.7%
1.3%2.3%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%Poughkeepsie
Vero BeachBinghamton
ClevelandMilwaukee
AlbanyNew Orleans
St. LouisRochester
UticaSyracuseMemphis
ColumbusWashington
RiversideBuffalo
New York CityDetroitAtlantaDenverAustinDallas
OrlandoSan JoseNashvilleHouston
Tampa
Top & Bottom 10 + NYS of largest
50 MSAs+1.8% avg
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS
Change in Nonag Jobs Nov12-Nov13MSAJob growth rank Nov 12-Nov
13 (of 374)New York 65
Buffalo 166
Glens Falls 168
Syracuse 243
Utica 245
Rochester 255
Albany 260
Kingston 284
Elmira 335
Binghamton 343
Poughkeepsie 366
Manufacturing to service is too simplistic• “Return to manufacturing” is the result of labor’s
declining share of value added• Convergence across “sectors”
Shift to smaller firmsRise of eds & meds—geographically sticky
businessesRochester as case study
Composition of Employment
Rochester’s Largest Employers: 1980EMPLOYER 1980 2010Kodak 53,387 5,909 Xerox 15,470 7,014 U of R/Strong Memorial/Highland Total 14,000 18,028 Delphi (General Motors‐‐including Delco, AC
Rochester Products) 8,951 1,350 Rochester General Hospital System (incl Genesee) 5,100 6,072 Gleason Corporation 4,928 575 Bausch + Lomb 4,800 1,500 Nalge Nunc (part of Sybron in 1980) 4,643 1,013 Wegmans 4,490 9,726 Rochester Gas & Electric (now part of Iberdrola) 2,701 865 Pactiv (Mobil Chemical‐>Tenneco Packaging
‐>Reynolds) 2,700 840 Frontier/Global Crossing (Rochester Telephone) 2,254 1,255 Rochester Institute of Technology 2,249 3,085 Chase (Lincoln First) 1,895 1,550
Rochester’s Largest Employers: 2010EMPLOYER 1980 2010U of R/Strong Memorial/Highland Total 14,000 18,028 Wegmans 4,490 9,726 Kodak 53,387 7,400 Xerox 15,470 7,014 Rochester General Hospital System (incl Genesee) 5,100 6,072 Excellus BCBS 1,200 3,473 Paychex <100 3,386 Rochester Institute of Technology 2,249 3,085 Harris RF Communications 1,000 2,300 Sutherland Group est 1986 2,194 ITT Exelis Geospatial (bought from Kodak in 2004) part of EK 1,661 Chase (Lincoln First) 1,895 1,550 Ortho‐Clinical Diagnostics (purchased by J&J from Kodak in 1994) part of EK 1,500 Bausch + Lomb 4,800 1,500
Syracuse Upstate University Health System
Syracuse Syracuse University
Buffalo Kaleida Health
Buffalo University at Buffalo
Binghamton Binghamton University
Binghamton United Health Services
Rochester University of Rochester Medical Center
Eds & Meds: Upstate’s Largest Employers
Eds: Degrees Conferred Per Capita2010-11
Field of Study & Rank (of 51 largest metros)
All FieldsBuffalo: 2
Rochester: 3
Biological & Life SciencesRochester: 2
Buffalo: 9
Physical SciencesRochester: 1Buffalo: 14
MathematicsRochester: 1
Buffalo: 10
Engineering & Related DegreesRochester: 3
Buffalo: 8
Computer & Info SciencesRochester: 6Buffalo: 10
Visual & Performing Arts Rochester: 1Music Rochester: 1
Voting with Their Feet
-10.1%-15% -5% 5% 15%
New YorkLouisiana
New JerseyMichigan
IllinoisRhode Island
CaliforniaMassachusetts
OhioConnecticut
OregonColoradoDelaware
GeorgiaIdaho
FloridaSouth CarolinaNorth Carolina
ArizonaNevada
Migration to Other States 2000-12 as % of 2000 Population
Source: U.S. Census
Top 10, Bottom 10
Questions?