PRODUCTION COST MODEL DATA WORK GROUP - PDWG MEETING - Intertek Data_Novembe… · POWER PLANT...
Transcript of PRODUCTION COST MODEL DATA WORK GROUP - PDWG MEETING - Intertek Data_Novembe… · POWER PLANT...
PRODUCTION COST MODEL DATA WORK GROUP - PDWG MEETING
Nikhil Kumar [email protected]
Intertek Engineering Consulting
WECC
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
OUR GLOBAL NETWORK AND CAPABILITIES
2
100+countries
Global MarketLeader in TIC
1,000+laboratoriesand offices
100,000audits
Global Market
Leader inAssurance
3,000auditors
Global ATIC Business with over 42,000 Employees, with a Market Cap. Of $10B+
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OUR HERITAGE
3
Virginius Daniel Moody establishes Moody Engineering for construction and engineering projects in the US, later moving into oil and gas testing and certification
Caleb Brett founds a marine surveying and cargo certification business in the UK
Intertek acquires APTECH Engineering to expand its Industrial Services offering, with focus on Engineering and Failure Analysis.
Thomas Edison sets up the Lamp Testing Bureau in the US (this later becomes the Electrical Testing Laboratories or ETL – a mark that Intertek still applies today)
1911 20171885
20121886 2009
ATI (AWARE) joins Intertek Industry Service. Intertek adds Asset Integrity Management Software to its portfolio.
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INTRODUCTION & PROBLEM STATEMENT
4
• Why do we need to understand power plant cycling costs?
• A major root cause of this increase in Capital and Operations & Maintenance (O&M) cost for many fossil units is unit cycling.
• Utilities have been forced to cycle aging fossil units that were originally designed for base load operation.
• What can and should we do once we understand these costs?
Generation Units Originally Designed for Baseload Operations Running in Cycling Modes
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OUR VIEWPOINT
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• Almost any unit can be cycled.
• This can be done with minimal capital investment.
• However, we have to account for:
• Long term penalty of increased wear & tear damage and reduced reliability.
• Short term penalty of higher heat rate, increased O&M, training requirements, and equipment efficiency.
• Component Damage can be determined
• Understand amount of damage present
• Rate of accumulation
• Total damage before failure
• Cycling a power plant is more difficult operating mode than baseload operation.
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IMPACT OF FLEXIBLE GENERATION ON NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
6
Maintenance/Overhaul Costs
Forced Outage Rates
Emissions Per MWh Generated
Long Term Production Cost
Long-Term Capacity Costs
Revenue
Plant Performance (efficiency)
Capacity Factors
Short Term – Production Cost
Unit Life Expectancies
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PRESSING BASE-LOAD UNITS INTO CYCLIC OPERATION?
• Consider the following:
• Cycle chemistry
• Thermally induced cyclic stress
• Extent of fatigue damage
• Nature & frequency of the transients
• Thermal gradient of the components
• Material properties
• Strain softening significantly changes a materials strength
• Damage is difficult to identify
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DAMAGE MECHANISMS – SYSTEM
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Previous Work Summary (2011 Project)
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DELIVERABLES
Intertek to provide Power Plant Cycling Cost inputs with high and low bounds:
• For 8 distinct groups of power plants,
• Costs will include (original scope):
• Load Following Costs (Minimum to Maximum Load)
• Forced Outage Rates as a function of increased cycling
• Hot, Warm, and Cold Start Costs
• Base-load Variable operation and maintenance (VOM) costs
• Startup Cost – Fuel and (Aux. Power + Chemicals + Water)
• Long Term Heat Rate effects due to Power Plant Cycling
• High Bound costs will be not be publicly available and are covered by a NDA.
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POWER PLANT GROUPS
Upper and Lower Bound Costs for eight power plant groups:
1. Small coal-fired sub-critical steam (35-299 MW)
2. Large coal-fired sub-critical steam (300-900 MW)
3. Large coal-fired supercritical steam (500-1300 MW)
4. Gas-fired combined cycle (CT-HRSG and ST)
5. Gas-fired simple cycle large frame (7F/9F, N11, V94.3A and similar types)
6. Gas-fired simple cycle Aero-Derivative CT (LM 6000, 5000, 2500)
7. Gas-fired steam (50-700 MW)
8. Lowest cycling cost power plants – due to design and operation
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METHODOLOGY
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CHARACTERIZING DAMAGE & COSTS
13
Cold Start EHS
Warm Start EHS
Hot Start EHS
Significant Load Following EHS
Mild Load Following EHS
Start/Stop
Load Following
Baseload
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cycling $
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
ESTIMATING LOW BOUND START COST
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ESTIMATING BASE LOAD VOM COST
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COST OF FLEXIBLE GENERATION
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0
100
200
300
400
Sta
rt C
&M
Lo
w E
stim
ate
(C
Y 2
01
1 $
/MW
)
10 20 50 100 200 500 1000
MW capacity (log scale)
hot starts warm starts cold starts
hot outliers warm outliers cold outliers
Points are 'jittered' <5% to try to show all units.
Plots all unit types together, but usesindividual unit type box plots to identify outliers
Low Bound C&M Start Costs per MW Capacity
Power Plant Cycling Costs, N. Kumar et al., Intertek (April 2012). http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/55433.pdf
Lower bound costs. Actual Costs are significantly different.
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INTERTEK ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
WECCUncertainty
BoundsReconcileAnalysis
Cost of Flexible Generation
Top Down (Historical + Latent
Damage / Cost)
Best Estimate
Upper Bound
Lower Bound
75th Percentile
Median
25th percentile
Outliers
Bottom Up (Historical Damage/
Cost)
17
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LOWER BOUND – START COST
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5
10
20
50
100
200
Hot
Sta
rt C
&M
Lo
w E
stim
ate
(C
Y 2
011
$/M
W)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Hot Start Cost Lower Bounds-Includes Outliers(Maintenance and capital cost per MW capacity)
0
100
200
300
Wa
rm S
tart
C&
M L
ow
Estim
ate
(C
Y 2
01
1 $
/MW
)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Warm Start Cost Lower Bounds-Includes Outliers(Maintenance and capital cost per MW capacity)
0
100
200
300
400
Cold
Sta
rt C
&M
Lo
w E
stim
ate
(C
Y 2
011
$/M
W)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Cold Start Cost Lower Bounds-Includes Outliers(Maintenance and capital cost per MW capacity)
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LOWER BOUND RELIABILITY IMPACTS
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0
.01
.02
.03
.04
Hot
Sta
rt E
FO
R I
ncre
ase (
add
ed
%)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Hot Start EFOR Impact Lower Bounds-with Outliers(added % to one year's EFOR)
0
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05W
arm
Sta
rt E
FO
R I
ncre
ase
(ad
de
d %
)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Warm Start EFOR Impact Lower Bounds-with Outliers(added % to one year's EFOR)
0
.02
.04
.06
Cold
Sta
rt E
FO
R I
ncre
ase (
add
ed
%)
1: C
oal -
Small S
ub C
ritica
l
2: C
oal -
Larg
e Su
b Criti
cal
3: C
oal -
Supe
r Criti
cal
4: G
as - CC [G
T+HRSG
+ST]
5: G
as - La
rge Fr
ame CT
6: G
as - Ae
ro D
eriva
tive CT
7: G
as - St
eam
Cold Start EFOR Impact Lower Bounds-with Outliers(added % to one year's EFOR)
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
LOWER BOUND RESULTS
Unit Types
Coal - Small Sub
Critical
Coal - Large Sub
Critical
Coal - Super
Critical
Gas - CC
[GT+HRSG+ST]
Gas - Large
Frame CT
Gas - Aero
Derivative CT Gas - Steam
Cost Item/
Typical Hot Start Data
-C&M cost ($/MW cap.)
Median 94 59 54 35 32 19 36
~25th_centile 79 39 39 28 22 12 25
~75th_centile 131 68 63 56 47 61 42
-EFOR Impact
Median 0.0086% 0.0057% 0.0037% 0.0025% 0.0020% 0.0073% 0.0029%
~25th_centile 0.0045% 0.0035% 0.0030% 0.0021% 0.0007% 0.0038% 0.0016%
~75th_centile 0.0099% 0.0082% 0.0065% 0.0070% 0.0142% 0.0186% 0.0060%
Typical Warm Start Data
-C&M cost ($/MW cap.)
Median 157 65 64 55 126 24 58
~25th_centile 112 55 54 32 26 12 36
~75th_centile 181 78 89 93 145 61 87
-EFOR Impact
Median 0.0123% 0.0070% 0.0054% 0.0039% 0.0027% 0.0073% 0.0048%
~25th_centile 0.0058% 0.0041% 0.0037% 0.0023% 0.0007% 0.0038% 0.0026%
~75th_centile 0.0156% 0.0081% 0.0095% 0.0083% 0.0162% 0.0186% 0.0081%
Typical Cold Start Data
-C&M cost ($/MW cap.)
Median 147 105 104 79 103 32 75
~25th_centile 87 63 73 46 31 12 54
~75th_centile 286 124 120 101 118 61 89
-EFOR Impact
Median 0.0106% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0055% 0.0035% 0.0088% 0.0060%
~25th_centile 0.0085% 0.0047% 0.0059% 0.0033% 0.0007% 0.0038% 0.0043%
~75th_centile 0.0163% 0.0150% 0.0101% 0.0088% 0.0116% 0.0195% 0.0123%
Startup Time (hours)
-Typical (Warm Start Offline Hours) 4 to 24 12 to 40 12 to 72
5 to 40 (ST
Different) 2 to 3 0 to 1 4 to 48
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LOWER BOUND RESULTS
Unit Types
Coal - Small Sub
Critical
Coal - Large Sub
Critical
Coal - Super
Critical
Gas - CC
[GT+HRSG+ST]
Gas - Large
Frame CT
Gas - Aero
Derivative CT Gas - Steam
Typical Load Follows Data
-C&M cost ($/MW cap.) - Typical Ramp Rate
Median 3.34 2.45 1.96 0.64 1.59 0.63 1.92
~25th_centile 1.91 1.40 1.52 0.30 0.94 0.42 1.17
~75th_centile 3.84 3.10 2.38 0.74 2.80 1.70 2.32
Range of Load Follow (%GDC)
-Typical Range (%GDC) 32% 35% 30% 20% 27% 20% (Some 50%) 32%
-Multiplying Factor - Faster Ramp Rate (1.1 to 2x)
Range* 2 to 8 1.5 to 10 1.5 to 10 1.2 to 4 1.2 to 4 1 to 1.2 1.2 to 6
Typical Non-cycling Related Costs
- Baseload Variable Cost ($/MWH)
Median 2.82 2.68 2.96 1.02 0.57 0.66 0.92
~25th_centile 1.52 1.62 2.48 0.85 0.48 0.27 0.66
~75th_centile 3.24 3.09 3.40 1.17 0.92 0.80 1.42
Note: Multiplying factor - increase in load follow cost (damage) from a faster ramp rate
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Updates and What’s Changed?
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BEYOND THE CYCLING COSTS, ASSET RISK
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 40
Ou
tage
Rat
e
Age (years)
Reliability Trends
FOR EFOR EFORd
Source: Power Plant Cycling Costs, N. Kumar et al., Intertek (April 2012). http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/55433.pdf
Age Age & Cycling High Impact Low Probability
Source: Intertek Engineering Technical Paper 214
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OPPORTUNITY [PHYSICAL ASSET]
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Source: Impact of plant cycling on availability, N. Kumar et al., ASME Power 2015, POWER2015-49359
In a flexible regime, design matters!
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SURVEY
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Size (MW)Current Min. Load
Potential Min. Load
65 23% 8%
70 43% 21%
254 35% 24%
258 52% 35%
267 34% 22%
446 28% 22%
524 46% 38%
880 40% 28%
Source: “Low Load/Low Air Flow Optimum Control Applications,” TR-111541. Electric Power Research Institute. Section 3-4. Web. June 21 2010
Example Improvements in Minimum Load Retrofits
Source: F.H. Fenton. “Survey of Cyclic Load Capabilities of Fossil-Steam, Generating Units”. IEEE Transactions on Power Appartus and Systems, Vol. PAS-101, No 6 June 1982.
1982 EPRI Survey Results
Capacity (MW) Design
Avg. Ramp Rate (%/min)
Max. Ramp Rate (%/min)
180 Sub-Critical 1.8% 3.6%
300 Sub-Critical 2.0% 3.1%
420 Sub-Critical 1.1% 2.9%
540 Sub-Critical 1.7% 2.8%
660 Sub-Critical 1.3% 3.7%
420 Super-Critical 1.3% 4.3%
540 Super-Critical 1.1% 3.6%
660 Super-Critical 1.2% 2.0%
780 Super-Critical 0.9% 3.5%
900 Super-Critical 1.0% 2.0%
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SH Header Failures Water hammer FAC in HP secondary SH drain
Combined effect of thermo-mechanical fatigue cracking with initiation at the OD and cracking due to thermal shock with initiation at the ID inside the bore holes of the superheat header. [P22]
Steam Bypass line to condenser hanger damage, water hammer during cycles. Cold Start Ramp Rate was in excess of 2500 F/hr., while Hot Start Rate was 1500 F/hr.Operational countermeasures were implemented to ensure that high thermal ramp rate cycles are bypassed to the condenser.
Cold Start – condensate is in FAC range.
Carbon Steel material.Carbon Steel changed to P22
COMBINED CYCLE FAILURE INVESTIGATION
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ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION
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CRH Failure – Testimony at PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF THE STATE OF OREGON
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SPENDING, OR LACK THERE OF?
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Real O&M for all plants and weighted by generation has decreased from 1988-2005 and has leveled out since.
Source: Power Plant Spending in U.S. – Trends and Impact, Intertek TP 305, Nikhil Kumar & Phil Besuner
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10 YEAR TIME HORIZON – WHAT’S HAPPENED SO FAR
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Source: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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CHARACTERIZING PLANT CYCLING – OPERATING RANGE
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Fossil generating units are staying offline for more hours – but…
Source: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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@ Full Load@ Full Load
@ Full Load
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CHARACTERIZING PLANT CYCLING – DAILY LOAD VARIATION
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Duck curve in CA, limited impact in TX, reduced fossil generation in IA.
Source: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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CHARACTERIZING PLANT CYCLING – STARTS & SIGNIFICANT LOAD FOLLOWING
32
Significant Load Follow is a MW Change > 20% capacity.
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START PROFILE
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A cold start on a fossil plant is far more damaging than a hot start →more cost.
Hours offline defines hot, warm and cold start definition. Different for each unit type and size.
Trend of increasing offline hours reflected more clearly in IA and CA.
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EVOLVING OPERATING REGIME
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Size matters, but units are forced to change operating profiles (coal). Gas unit capacity factors continue to trend higher!
Source: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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CA FLEET
35
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Combined Cycle GT Conventional Gas Steam
Simple Cycle GT
An
nu
al S
tart
s
YearGraphs by Unit type
Annual starts for Key California Units
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Annual EHS; 87% increase Annual Starts; 123% increase
Adjusted for missing hourly data
Summed Annual EHS and Starts for all California Units
0
100
200
300
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
EHS per TWhr generation; 68% low-to-high increase
Starts per TWhr generation; 109% low-to-high increase
Adjusted for missing hourly data
Summed Annual EHS and Starts per TWhr generation for all California Units
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Combined Cycle GT Conventional Gas Steam
Simple Cycle GT
An
nu
al E
HS
YearGraphs by Unit type
Annual EHS for Key California Units
Simple cycle GT providing most of the flexibility.Source: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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BOTTOM LINE - UNIT CYCLING DAMAGE [2005-15]
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CA and TX Fleets have cycled more → Increased Cycling Related O&M CostSource: Impact of Large-Scale Wind & Solar Integration on Existing Fossil Generation in United States, Kumar et al., 15th Wind Integration Workshop, Vienna (2016)
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PJM RE StudySo, where are we today?
37
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PJM RENEWABLE INTEGRATION STUDY
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• Perform a comprehensive renewable power integration study to:
• Determine, for the PJM balancing area, the operational, planning, and energy market effects of large-scale integration of wind power as well as mitigation/facilitation measures available to PJM.
• Make recommendations for the implementation of such mitigation/facilitation measures.
• This study was initiated at the request of PJM stakeholders.
• Data Sources:
• The study used a combination of publicly available and confidential data to model the Eastern Interconnection, the PJM grid, and its power plants.
Project Team
Source: https://www.pjm.com/committees-and-groups/subcommittees/irs/pris.aspx
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TECHNICAL APPROACH/TASKS
• Hourly Production Simulation (PJM + Rest of EI)
• Transmission Overlay Analysis
• Sub-Hourly Simulation of Interesting Days
• Real-Time Market Performance
• Renewable Capacity Valuation
• Statistical Analysis of Load and Renewable Data
• Reserve Analysis
• Review of industry practice/experience with integration of wind/solar resources
• Power Plant Cycling Cost Analysis
• Power Plant Cycling Emissions Analysis
39
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PJM GENERATION MIX
40
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Renewables
*Renewable include – Hydro, Wind, Solar, Other
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CLEARLY CYCLING OPERATION IS INCREASING
41
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Starts
90th Percentile Median
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Significant Load Following
90th Percentile Median
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
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AVERAGE ANNUAL STARTS FOR COAL & GAS UNITS
42
36 % Increase
13% Increase
EIA: About half of the 21 GW of natural gas-fired generation capacity expected to come online by the end of 2018 are combined-cycle units to be added to PJM!
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
FOR THE LARGER UNITS, TREND IS MODEST
43
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
MAKES SENSE, AN EXPECTED TREND
44
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
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SMALL COAL IS CYCLING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
45
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
NORMALIZING CYCLING OPERATION
46
55 % Increase from 135 EHS/Yr.
25 % Increase from 52 EHS/Yr.
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From Scenarios to the Present – An analysis of the PJM Renewable Integration Study in 2019, N. Kumar, EPRI Flexible Operation Conference 2019
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
What else is new?New Scope for 2019/2020 Update
47
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CONSIDERATIONS
48
• New technologies and capabilities
• Operating profiles
• Retirements
• Limit units in WI or rest of U.S.?
Control for:
• Age
• Size
• Vintage
• Location
• Operating Regime
Pay attention to nonlinearity!Adding 30% EHS/year (1.3x) shortens life by 11 years, but subtracting 30% EHS/year (0.7x) adds 22 years to the life.
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Source: Power Plant Spending in U.S. – Trends and Impact, Intertek TP 305, Nikhil Kumar & Phil Besuner
Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
GE – LMS 100 MACHINES
49
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 40 50 100 105 110
Freq
uen
cy
MW Range
Panoche 1-4, MW Range (2009-11)
Panoche-1 Panoche-2 Panoche-3 Panoche-4
Site City State CT Model Year (Start)
Walnut Creek Energy
Park
City of Industry (LA County) CA LMS100 2013
Panoche Firebaugh (Fresno County) CA LMS100 2009
Sentinel Energy
Project
Desert Hot Springs (Riverside
County)
CA LMS100 2013
Haynes Long Beach CA LMS100 2013
Type Capabilities
Normal start-up time 10 minutes
Non-spin start-up time 10 minutes
Maximum number of daily start-ups 4/day
Maximum number of annual start-ups 500/year
Minimum run time 30 minutes per dispatch
Minimum down time 20 minutes from shutdown to next start
Minimum operating level 50 MW
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
HIGH EFFICIENCY GAS TURBINES
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• Current development in gas turbine technology is producing more powerful and efficient engines.
• Aiding in these advances is the development of advanced base materials with superior high-temperature strength and thermal barrier coatings that protect the structural material from ever-higher temperatures.
• [2012] GE Launches the Flex Efficiency 60* Combined Cycle Power Plant for 60 Hz Regions that Can Provide More than 61% Combined Cycle Efficiency
• [2016] A 1,600°C class 50-Hz M701J comes into commercial operation in Unit 2 at the Kawasaki Power Station of TEPCO Fuel & Power, Inc.
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
PROJECT METHODOLOGY – BASELINE CRITERIA
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
DELIVERABLES
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• Categories of Units• Small coal-fired sub-critical steam (35-299 MW)
• Large coal-fired sub-critical steam (300-900 MW)
• Large coal-fired supercritical steam (500-1300 MW)
• Gas-fired combined cycle plants (CT-ST and HRSG)
• Gas-fired simple cycle large frame (GE 7/9, N11, V94.3A and similar types)
• Gas-fired simple cycle Aero-Derivative CT (LM 6000, 5000, 2500). New data set to include, New Fast Start Gas Turbines – Aero-Derivative (LMS 100 and similar)
• Gas-fired steam (50-700 MW)
• Gas-fired combined cycle plants (CT-ST and HRSG) –High Efficiency Gas Turbines (H Class and Similar)
• Gas-fired combined cycle plants (CT-ST and HRSG) –Fast Start
• Gas Reciprocating Engines (Wartsila and similar)
• Output of Analysis• Task 1 — Hot, Warm, and Cold Start costs
Costs in units of 2020 dollars per start for hot, warm and cold starts. These costs will inherently include all cycling-related costs (except forced outage costs).
Intertek will also update the table with new ramping capabilities, minimum up and down time, startup time for the different generation technologies and the corresponding cost impacts.
• Task 2 — Load Following costs Costs in units of 2020 dollars for various load following modes – mild, significant and operation at minimum load. Minimum load operation to be evaluated may be at approximately 80%, 50%, and 30% of maximum load. Units that are unable to operate below any minimum load operation described above will be noted. These costs will inherently include all cycling-related costs (except forced outage costs).
Intertek will also update the table with new ramping capabilities including cost impacts.
• Task 3 — Base-Loaded Variable O&M (VOM) Costs
• Task 4 — Forced Outage Rates (FOR)
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
THANK YOU!
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Intertek Engineering Consulting Engineering | Failure Analysis | Technology
Nikhil KumarManaging Director, Intertek Engineering [email protected] | (408) 636-5340