Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers...

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Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions. GOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT GOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT II II AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011 2011

Transcript of Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers...

Page 1: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFPPresented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP®®

Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions.Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FF’s Opinions.

GOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT IIGOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT II

AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011

Page 2: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

HEADLINE MESSAGE TODAY HEADLINE MESSAGE TODAY

SAVINGSSAVINGS INS.INS. ESTATE PLANESTATE PLAN

RESIDENCE RET. PLANRET. PLAN

STOCKSSTOCKS BONDSBONDSREAL ESTATEREAL ESTATE

COMMODITIESCOMMODITIESGOLD, SILVER 20%GOLD, SILVER 20% CASHCASH

WINERY, WINERY, RACING RACING

CARS, CARS, HORSES... HORSES...

"

June, 2010June, 2010

"Buy Low, Sell High" Means Buy Weakness, Sell Strength."Buy Low, Sell High" Means Buy Weakness, Sell Strength.

Page 3: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

COMMODITIES 2001-2011COMMODITIES 2001-2011Ibbotson Commodities Cycles Report. [BRIC]

Until 2006, Miners Still Forward Selling Cu!

Ore = "Minerals Mineable Profitably."

Feasibility Study Needed for Bank Loans.

Major Miners Hunt Jrs.

10 Years to Production.

Then 10 Year Life…

Page 4: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

FOGHORN ON GOLD INVESTINGFOGHORN ON GOLD INVESTING“Investing is About Probabilities, About "Animal

Spirits,” And Change!

M.P.T. - 80% of Returns Come

From Secular Trend (Bull/Bear).

A Secular Bull Market Trend Runs

On Supply/Demand Imbalance Anticipation.

Study Portfolio Managers Who've Made Money.

To Participate: Broker/Funds, Newsletters, Self.

Page 5: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

"GOLD IS MONEY,""GOLD IS MONEY," JP MORGAN JP MORGAN

Is Sturdy/Inert Chemically. Doesn't Oxidize.

Is Alloyable. Animals, Vegetables Aren’t.

Is Divisible. Retains Properties.

Is Ductile. Can be Stretched.

Is Portable. Travels; No One’s Obligation.

Is Recognizable. Assayable,Weighable.

Is Scarce. High Unit Value. (BUT, Inconvenient.)

Memory Tip: “It’s a “It’s a SADD PRSSADD PRS Without Gold.” Without Gold.”

Page 6: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.
Page 7: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

EVERYDAY REFERENCES TO GOLDEVERYDAY REFERENCES TO GOLDCalifornia: Golden StateA Golden Age Gold Rush Heart of Gold Midas’ Golden TouchThe Golden Rule Jason & Golden FleeceA Gold Credit CardGolden Parachute Gold CoastGolden BoyGold-Digger

Olympcs,Oscar,TonyGGlobes, Emmy

State House RoofA Gold RecordAlka Seltzer GoldAmstel Gold BeerHyatt Gold PassportGold Medal FlourHonda Gold WingCent.-21, Gold Std.McD Golden ArchesGoldmember Song+Movies: Die Hard 3+

Page 8: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

DOLLAR “DOWN” GOLD “UP”DOLLAR “DOWN” GOLD “UP”

Page 9: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

REASONS FOR PM BULL MARKET REASONS FOR PM BULL MARKET BOnd Market Peak. [Real Rates - Negative]COmmodities in Bull Market.DOllar Sinking/ Euros? Yen?COnfidence in Equities Down.Trade Deficit: $700 Billion, Rising.Deficit (Federal)-Monetary Inflation.Debts: Govts, Banks, Individuals=Enormous.Demand/Supply Gap of PMs Expanding.Derivatives - $1Q, Unfunded, Overvalued.Global Issues: Wars, RE, Etc...Au=Insurance.

Page 10: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

HOW HOW NOTNOT TO BUY GOLD TO BUY GOLDNumismatic Coins: Expertise.Numismatic Coins: Expertise.

TV, EBay Gold: Big Mark-Ups.TV, EBay Gold: Big Mark-Ups.

Jewelry: 10% Gold?Jewelry: 10% Gold?

(No Envelope Sales Either.)(No Envelope Sales Either.)

Bars: Real or Tungsten?Bars: Real or Tungsten?

Paper: GLD, SLV, Wts-No!Paper: GLD, SLV, Wts-No!

Futures: 80% Investors Lose.Futures: 80% Investors Lose.

??

Page 11: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

GOLD DEFENSEGOLD DEFENSE: PHYSICAL PMs : PHYSICAL PMs

COINS Are Free From Counterparty Risk.

Any Recent Date, Bullion Coins; 5%.

Eagles, Dimes Maples, Libertads.

No Commemoratives,"Storage."No Commemoratives,"Storage."

Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Avoid!Avoid!

Coins Are Like Wine Cellar; Don’t Trade Em!

Visit: Long Beach Coin Show, www.gata.org.

Page 12: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

GOLD OFFENSEGOLD OFFENSE: PM SHARES: PM SHARES“Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism,

Grow on Skepticism,

Mature on Optimism,

And Die on Euphoria.”

Sir John Templeton

Secular Bull = P/E's Up. Relative Perf. Ok.

Secular Bear=P/E's Down. Need Absolute Perf.

2011 Market: 2nd of 3 Acts; Rise to $3k+/Oz.

Buy, Hold Bricks; Trade Specs. Mr. Darcy £10k.

Page 13: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

BULL MARKETS RUN IN 3 ACTSBULL MARKETS RUN IN 3 ACTS

Page 14: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

PRECIOUS METAL RESOURCES PRECIOUS METAL RESOURCES FREE:

www.theaureport.com.northernminer.com.infomine.com.youtube.com(miners).321gold.com.jsmineset.com.goldseek.com.silverseek.com.gata.org.zerohedge.com

NOT FREE:www.iiconf.com.cambridgehouse.com.goldstockanalyst.com.dinesletter.com.lemetropolecafe.com hardrockanalyst.comPrecious Metal Investing

for Dummies, '08Mining Explained, N.M. FFs Guide to Gold, ‘08

Page 15: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

GSA 10 YEAR TRACK RECORDGSA 10 YEAR TRACK RECORD

See: See: www.goldstockanalyst.comwww.goldstockanalyst.com, Sample Letter Top Ten, of April 2009. , Sample Letter Top Ten, of April 2009.

Page 16: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

PM GEOLOGY TERMINOLOGYPM GEOLOGY TERMINOLOGYReserves: Defined by Ni 43-101/JORC.

OP/Heap Leaching: Cheapest.

Oxides: Cheapest Ore (Weathered).

Strip Ratio of 1.5 to 1 = 1.5 Tons of Overburden Removed Above Ore.

High Grading: When Ore Prices Low, Miners Dig High Grade Ore Only.

Profits = Cash Flow, Au Price, Buyout.

Page 17: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

JUNIOR MINING STOCKS - FULP JUNIOR MINING STOCKS - FULP 1. Politically Safe, Flagship Project.[200k Oz/Y.]

2. [Usually Au & Ag-OP, Oxides, HL, High Grade]

3. Experienced, Honest People.

4. Tight Share Structure.(<100M Shr)

5. Cashed Up & Access to Financing.

6. Professional Website, Board.

7. "Undervalued" [& 3rd Party Eval.]

www.miningcompanyreport.com/musings of:

Aug.25,‘08, Dec.15,‘08, Feb.23,‘09, Dec.6,'10.

Mr. DYODDMr. DYODD

Page 18: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

"MINING STOCKS ARE BURNING "MINING STOCKS ARE BURNING MATCHES."MATCHES." DOUG CASEY DOUG CASEY

Page 19: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

GOLD MINING SPECULATIONSGOLD MINING SPECULATIONSGoldCorpGoldCorp (GG) $43, (GG) $43, 12 Mines,12 Mines,

2.7M Oz. Prod. in '11.2.7M Oz. Prod. in '11.YamanaYamana (AUY) $12, 3 Mines, (AUY) $12, 3 Mines,

1 M+ Oz. Brazil Production.1 M+ Oz. Brazil Production.New GoldNew Gold (NGD) $10, 350k Oz, (NGD) $10, 350k Oz,

3 Mines, Growing, Low Cost.3 Mines, Growing, Low Cost.Gold ResourceGold Resource (GORO) $25, (GORO) $25, 50k Oz, 50k Oz,

Mex. Producer, Div.Mex. Producer, Div.Premier GoldPremier Gold (PIRGF.PK) $7, (PIRGF.PK) $7,

Ewan Downie, Red Lake.Ewan Downie, Red Lake.Crocodile MiningCrocodile Mining (CROCF.PK) (CROCF.PK)

$1, Aus, 100k+ Production.$1, Aus, 100k+ Production.

Page 20: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

PMs ARE “ACTIVELY MANAGED” PMs ARE “ACTIVELY MANAGED” Gold Anti-Trust Action Comm., www.gata.org, John Embry, Sprott.com,James Turk, goldmoney.com,Doug Casey, caseyresearch.com, Harry Schultz, Consultant, Richard Russell, Dow Theory,Paul Volcker Interview, Gulf Cooperation Council,Vice Chair, Russian Central Bank,Credit Agricole Report,Citicorp Equities Report, Don Coxe, Global Strategist, BMO, ETC.

(Strong (Strong Dollar Dollar Policy)Policy)

Page 21: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

"ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD""ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD"

Secular Gold Bull Market, 10 Years Old, Growing.Secular Gold Bull Market, 10 Years Old, Growing.

You Will Not Get Happy!

You Will Get Happy.

(Every Fiat Currency- exc. dollar- Has Died. Every PM Coin Ever Minted is Still Really Valuable.)

Page 22: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

UNDERSTANDING SILVERUNDERSTANDING SILVER

Industrial & Monetary Metal.

Highest Electrical Conductivity.

Highest Solar Reflectiveness.

2/3 Ag Comes from Gold, Cu, Zn, Pb Mines.

US Strategic Stockpile Depleted 11/27/2000.

680M Oz. Mined 2008, Demand 800M Oz.

“Little Brother” Trading Pattern With Gold.

Seasonality: Runs Up From Sept. to May...

Page 23: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

SILVER MINING SPECULATIONSSILVER MINING SPECULATIONSSilver Wheaton (SLW) $43,

$15B MCap, Caymans HQ, $4.01 Cost, Royalty Co.

Pan American (PAAS) $39, $4.2B MCap, 9 Mines, Aquiline.

Hecla (HL) $9, Idaho,$2.8B MCap, High Cost Mines.

MineFinders (MFN) $10, $1.2B MCap, Mex Mine Operator.

Great Panther (GPL) $4, Mex., $473M Mcap, 4M Oz,

Page 24: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

SUGGESTED SUGGESTED PM SPECULATIONPM SPECULATION

"You Can’t Kiss ‘Em All," But Kiss At Least 5 Names.

1. Coins; Then Bullion Funds: CEF, PHYSShare ETF: GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL Income: GGN (Yield: 14 Cents a Month)

2. Royalty: RGLD, SLW, FNNVFMajors: GG, PAAS, AUY, [Tier 2, 3-GSA Top Ten, Exc. PAAS, GPL.]

3. Producers: GORO, NGD, MFN, GPL

4. Dev/Explorers: TC, PIRGF, AUNFF

(Start at Bottom of Pyramid; Work Your Way Up.)

Page 25: Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply.

WWW.LEMETROPOLECAFE.COMWWW.LEMETROPOLECAFE.COM, 3-30-2011, 3-30-2011GREAT SITE; TRY TWO WEEKS FOR FREEGREAT SITE; TRY TWO WEEKS FOR FREE