Presented by Mark DiCamillo Director, The Field Poll November 15, 2012 CSU, Sacramento presented by...

California Voters and the November 6, 2012 Election:

presented byMark DiCamillo

Director, The Field Poll

November 15, 2012CSU, Sacramento

The Field Poll

About The Field Poll’sfinal pre-election survey

Population Surveyed: California registered voters considered likely to vote in the November general election.

Interviewing Dates: October 17-30, 2012. Sample divided into two approximately equal size interviewing periods -- Wave 1: October 17-24 and Wave 2: October 25-30.

Mode of Administration: Landline and cell phone by live interviewers working from Field’s central location call center in San Diego.

Number of Interviews: 1,912 registered voters, of whom 1,566 were considered likely to vote.

Languages of English, Spanish, Cantonese, Administration: Mandarin, Korean, Vietnamese.

Asian Sample Asian-Americans were Augmentation:oversampled and included

440 registered voters to permit comparisons with white non-Hispanic, Latino and African-American voters.

Table 1

The Field Poll

51% 50%

55% 55%58%

53% 54%

59.1%

38%40%

35%37%

34%38% 39% 38.6%

Obama/Biden

Romney/Ryan

Trend of California presidential preferences between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

Table 2

Source: The Field Poll.

The Field Poll

Jan-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Late Oct-08

Sep-11 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Late Oct-12(Wave

1)

Late Oct-12(Wave

2)

59%62% 63% 62% 61%

55%53%

58%61%

57% 57%

23%

29%26%

32%30%

41%38% 39%

36% 37%35%

2012 Election2008 Election

Favorable

Unfavorable

Trend of California voter image ratings of Barack Obama

Table 3


The Field Poll

June 2011 September 2011

November 2011

May 2012 July 2012 September 2012

Late Oct 2012

(Wave 1)

Late Oct 2012

(Wave 2)

38%

34%38%

40%36%

39% 38%41%

34%

40% 39%

44%

55%53%

50% 49%

Trend of California voter impressions ofMitt Romney

Table 4


Unfavorable

Favorable

The Field Poll

Is your preference more a vote for your candidate or a vote against his opponent?

Obama Voters Romney Voters

For Obama79%

AgainstRomney

14%

7% No opinion

For Romney54%

AgainstObama

39%

7% No opinion

Table 5

Source: Late October 2012 Field Poll.

The Field Poll

July 2012 September 2012 Late Oct 2012(Wave 1)

Late Oct 2012(Wave 2)

Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count

51%

57% 56%54%

61.4%

32% 31% 32% 33%

38.6%

Trend of California voter preferencesfor U.S. Senate

Table 6


Feinstein (D)

Emken (R)

The Field Poll

Early July Mid-Septenber Late October

52%

59%55%

26%

33%30%

Trend of California voter impressions of Dianne Feinstein during this year’s election campaign

Table 7


Favorable

Unfavorable

The Field Poll

Early July Mid-Septenber Late October

22% 22% 21%

13%9%

11%

Trend of California voter impressions of Elizabeth Emken

Table 8


Favorable

Unfavorable

The Field Poll

May Early July Mid-September Late October Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count

52%54%

51%48%

53.9%

35%38%

36%38%

46.1%

Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 30, the Governor’s tax increase initiative

Table 9


Yes voters

No voters

The Field Poll

Factors affecting voting preferences on Proposition 30

Table 10

Source: Late October 2012 Field Poll.

(24%) Disagree strongly

(20%) Disagree somewhat

(26%) Agree somewhat

(22%) Agree strongly

(17%) Not concerned

(21%) Somewhat concerned

(58%) Very concerned

(8%) Less than I should

(47%) About the right amount

(38%) More than I should

(17%) No opinion

(37%) Disapprove

(46%) Approve

Statewide

83%

62%

38%

19%

13%

34%

68%

72%

58%

28%

40%

21%

71%

48%

% Voting Yes

Governor Brown job rating

Amount voters feelthey pay in state taxes

Concerns about spendingcuts if Prop.30 rejected

State can provide roughlysame level of services even ifits budget is cut by $6 billion

The Field Poll

Mid-September Nov. 7Preliminary Vote Count

21%

39.2%

40%

60.8%

Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 31, the state budget reform initiative

Table 11


Yes voters

No voters

The Field Poll

Early September Late October(Wave 1: Oct. 17-24)

Late October(Wave 2: Oct. 25-30)


38%34% 34%

43.9%

44%

49% 50%

56.1%

Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 32, the payroll deductions for political

contributions initiative

Table 12


No voters

Yes voters

The Field Poll

Early September Late October(Wave 1: Oct. 17-24)

Late October(Wave 2: Oct. 25-30)


42%

41%45%

47.2%

45%

40%38%

52.8%

Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 34, to repeal the death penalty

Table 13


Yes voters

No voters

The Field Poll

(45%) So rarely it'sunimportant

(47%) Too often

(42%) Doesn't guaranteethis

(47%) Guarantees prisonerwon't be released

(31%) Death penaltycheaper

(53%) Death penalty more expensive

17%

67%

21%

74%

27%

62%

% voting Yes on Prop. 34

Which is cheaper to apply?

What does life in prisonwithout parole mean?

How often areinnocent people executed?

How views about the death penaltyand life in prison without parole relate to

voting preferences on Prop. 34

Table 14

The Field Poll

February Late May Early July Mid-September Late October Nov. 7PreliminaryVote Count

45%42%

46%

41%

34%

27.7%

48%

43%

46%44%

49%

72.3%

Trend of California voter preferences onProp. 38, the Munger tax increase initiative

Table 15


No voters

Yes voters

The Field Poll

Early July Mid-September Nov. 7Preliminary Vote Count

44% 45%

60.1%

43%39% 39.9%

Trend of California voter preferences on Prop. 39,the business tax for energy funding initiative

Table 16


Yes voters

No voters

The Field Poll

1994 2012

in 000’s % in 000’s %

Total registered voters14,724

100%18,246

100% +3,522,000

White non-Hispanic10,750

(73%)11,000

(60%) +250,000

Latino2,200

(15%)4,200

(23%) +2,000,000

African-American900

(6%)1,046

(6%) +146,000

Asian-American/other874

(6%)2,000

(11%)+1,126,000

The growing influence of ethnic votersin the California electorate

Table 17

Source: Totals from the California Secretary of State. Ethnic subgroups are Field Poll estimates.

The Field Poll

Differences in the party registration of California voters by race/ethnicity

California Registered Voters (Total)

Democrats43.7%

No partypreference

20.9%

6.0% Other parties

Republicans29.4%

Vietnamese American

Korean American

Chinese American

African American

Latino

White non-Hispanic

39%

43%

49%

18%

27%

25%

33%

25%

19%

5%

17%

38%

28%

32%

32%

77%

56%

37%

DemocratsRepublicansNo party preference/Other

Table 18

Source: Total percentages are from the California Secretary of State, while subgroup

percentages are Field Poll estimates

Presented by Mark DiCamillo Director, The Field Poll November 15, 2012 CSU, Sacramento presented by...

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