Presentation Regional Analysis: NAFTA Cable Markets · Presentation Regional Analysis: NAFTA Cable...
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Presentation Regional Analysis: NAFTA Cable Markets Philip Radbourne Director – Research, Wire & Cable Team Integer Research Ltd, London Office 25th Annual Congress of the International Cablemakers Federation Washington, DC, 13-17 October 2015
Transcript of Presentation Regional Analysis: NAFTA Cable Markets · Presentation Regional Analysis: NAFTA Cable...
Presentation Regional Analysis:NAFTA Cable Markets
Philip Radbourne
Director – Research, Wire & Cable Team
Integer Research Ltd, London Office
25th Annual Congress of the International Cablemakers FederationWashington, DC, 13-17 October 2015
• Introduction• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of NAFTA cable markets• Leading suppliers• Conclusions – questions & answer session
NAFTA (USA, Canada, Mexico) Cable Markets
• Global Wire & Cable industry
Global wire and cable demand, US$ billion, 2008-2015
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa & the Middle East Americas
Europe Asia-Pacific & South Asia
US$ billion, cable demand
Cable demand by country in 2014
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
US$ million, Cable demand in 2014
A significant part of US demand has shifted to Mexico
Number of wire & cable making plants by country in 2014
Source: Integer, Industry Sources, SECRI, Wire Association, JCMA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
China India USA Japan Taiwan SouthKorea
Turkey Mexico Russia Italy Germany Indonesia Brazil Thailand Malaysia
Number of wire & cable manufacturing plant
Between 2003-2010 more than 30 new factories built per month in China
• NAFTA/USA
Leading economies in the world by GDP
Source: IMF (2014) , Bloomberg
0
5
10
15
20
USA China Japan Germany UK France Brazil Italy India Russia Canada
GDP (US$) trillion in 2014
NAFTA GDP by country, year-on-year
GDP, % yr-on-yr
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USACanadaMexico
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Integer, Note: 2015 is an estimate
US still struggling to recover from housing crash in 2006-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Privately Owned Housing Starts, 1990-2015, ‘000 starts
Decline started as early as 2005
Source: US Census, Bloomberg
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, 1973-October 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1973
1974
1975
1976
1976
1977
1978
1979
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1991
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1996
1997
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2015
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Trending down to 1973 levels
Source: US Bureau of Labor (BLS), Bloomberg
There are many positives about US economy
Positive
Economy recovered from worst recession in 80 years
US consumer confidence at 7 year high
US gas prices fall to lowest since 2008
US oil extraction up dramatically – petrochem boom
US auto sales at record highs
US weekly jobless claims drop to 42 year low
US unemployment at 5.1%
US budget deficit below 3% of GDP (10% in 2010)
Longest run (65 months) of private sector job creation on record
Negative
X Real wage growth has been modest at best
X Recovery not evenly split
X US Housing starts below 2007 peak
X Millennials do not have the resource to purchase houses
X Manufacturing PMIs heading towards 50 in September
X Labour participation rates lowest levels since 1970s
X Lower US oil prices hit fracking boom
X US National federal debt still at highest level in 70 years
X Further potential dispute over the debt ceiling extension
Source: US Bureau of Labor (BLS), Bloomberg, Economist, Integer
Countries with similar GDPs to each state in 2014
Italy or India
Mexico
South Korea
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
SwedenPoland
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMF, Bloomberg, Economist, Integer
• Overview of NAFTA cable markets
GDP and Cable demand in NAFTA in 2014
Source: Integer, US Census, Cansim, INEGI, IMF
0
5
10
15
20
USA Canada Mexico
GDP, US$, trillion Cable demand, US$ billion
Source: Integer, Industry Sources
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA Mexico CanadaUS$ million, cable demand
NAFTA cable demand, 2008-2014
Overview of NAFTA cable markets• USA
US cable production up through 2014 & 2015
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan
07M
rz 0
7M
ai 0
7Ju
l 07
Sep
07
Nov
07
Jan
08M
rz 0
8M
ai 0
8Ju
l 08
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09M
rz 0
9M
ai 0
9Ju
l 09
Sep
09
Nov
09
Jan
10M
rz 1
0M
ai 1
0Ju
l 10
Sep
10
Nov
10
Jan
11M
rz 1
1M
ai 1
1Ju
l 11
Sep
11
Nov
11
Jan
12M
rz 1
2M
ai 1
2Ju
l 12
Sep
12
Nov
12
Jan
13M
rz 1
3M
ai 1
3Ju
l 13
Sep
13
Nov
13
Jan
14M
rz 1
4M
ai 1
4Ju
l 14
Sep
14
Nov
14
Jan
15M
rz 1
5M
ai 1
5Ju
l 15
Communication and energy wire and cable (NAICS = 33592); s.a. IP Volumes
Source: US Census Bureau
US non-residential construction sector, 2005-2015
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Texas
New York
California
Florida
Louisiana
Ohio
Illinois
Rest of the US
Private Non-residential Construction Put in Place, US$ m, 2005-2015
Source: US Census Bureau
US cable manufacturing locations in 2014
Source: Integer, US Census Bureau, Wire Association, NEMA, Industry Sources
US state by state production in 2014
Source: Integer, US Census Bureau, Wire Association, Industry Sources
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
GeorgiaTexas
MassachusettsNorth Carolina
CaliforniaIndianaIllinois
PennsylvaniaConnecticut
South CarolinaAlabama
OhioNew YorkArkansas
New HampshireKentucky
VirginiaTennesseeNew Jersey
KansasMississippi
FloridaRhode Island
MissouriVermont Revenues, US$ million (includes enamelled wire)
Market share of the leading cable makers in NAFTA, 2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
USAMexicoCanada
Source: Industry sources, Integer – excludes bare overhead – ACSR/AAC, magnet wire and Al/Cu rod sales
Market share - Insulated wire and cable revenues in 2014, US$ million
Conclusions
NAFTA Cable markets
For further information and questions on the survey, please contact
Louisa WinnikEditor, NAFTA SurveyAnalyst, Wire & Cable
Philip RadbourneDirector, Wire & Cable Research
Tel: +44 20 7503 1265Fax: +44 20 7503 1266Integer Research Ltd
London Office, Invicta House108-114 Golden Lane
London, EC1Y 0TL, UK
