PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS - ICF · 2018-08-31 · PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS: EUROPEAN...

PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS:EUROPEAN CABLE MARKETS

Philip Radbourne,

Director, Wire & Cable

Integer Research Ltd, London Office

27th Annual Congress of the International Cablemakers FederationBarcelona, 10-14 October 2017

• Introduction & World Economy• Global Wire & Cable industry• Overview of European cable markets• CPR – how is the market coping?

European Wire & Cable Markets

Global manufacturing PMI gains momentum in H2 2017

Source: Integer, IMF

48

50

52

54

Jan13

Mrz13

Mai13

Jul13

Sep13

Nov13

Jan14

Mrz14

Mai14

Jul14

Sep14

Nov14

Jan15

Mrz15

Mai15

Jul15

Sep15

Nov15

Jan16

Mrz16

Mai16

Jul16

Sep16

Nov16

Jan17

Mrz17

Mai17

Jul17

Sep17

Source: Eurostat, Integer, Reuters/Eikon

Solid growth predictions through 2018

Source: OECD Interim Report September 2017, Reuters/Eikon

3,7

1,9

0,9 1,2 1,21,6 1,6

2,1 2,1 2,3 2,4

3,8

6,67,2

0

2

4

6

8Real GDP % change year-on-year

Can Brexit fly?

Source: Integer, Industry Sources

Global wire and cable demand, € billion, 2007-2017


Euro billion, cable demand

0

50

100

150

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Africa & the Middle East

Americas

Asia-Pacific & South Asia

Europe & CIS

Total industry in 2016 = US$180 billion or €162 billion

World cable demand fell in 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yr-on-Yr % change in volumes

First dip in global volumes since 2009


Economies, GDP versus Cable demand in 2016

Source: Integer Research, Reuters/Eikon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

USA EU-28 China Japan

GDP (Euro) trillion

Cable demand (Euro) billion

Key cable making hubs world wide in 2017

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

China India USA Japan Turkey Taiwan SouthKorea

Russia Mexico Brazil Italy Vietnam Thailand Germany Indonesia

Number of insulated wire & cable manufacturing plant


Top 25 cable makers in 2016

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Insulated cable revenues, Euro million, 2016


Eurozone manufacturing PMI hits 6-7 year high in September 2017


40

45

50

55

60Ja

n 11

Mrz

11

Mai

11

Jul 1

1

Sep

11

Nov

11

Jan

12

Mrz

12

Mai

12

Jul 1

2

Sep

12

Nov

12

Jan

13

Mrz

13

Mai

13

Jul 1

3

Sep

13

Nov

13

Jan

14

Mrz

14

Mai

14

Jul 1

4

Sep

14

Nov

14

Jan

15

Mrz

15

Mai

15

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

Nov

15

Jan

16

Mrz

16

Mai

16

Jul 1

6

Sep

16

Nov

16

Jan

17

Mrz

17

Mai

17

Jul 1

7

Sep

17


EU-28 Cable production on stronger path in Q3 2017


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan

05Ap

r 05

Jul 0

5O

kt 0

5Ja

n 06

Apr 0

6Ju

l 06

Okt

06

Jan

07Ap

r 07

Jul 0

7O

kt 0

7Ja

n 08

Apr 0

8Ju

l 08

Okt

08

Jan

09Ap

r 09

Jul 0

9O

kt 0

9Ja

n 10

Apr 1

0Ju

l 10

Okt

10

Jan

11Ap

r 11

Jul 1

1O

kt 1

1Ja

n 12

Apr 1

2Ju

l 12

Okt

12

Jan

13Ap

r 13

Jul 1

3O

kt 1

3Ja

n 14

Apr 1

4Ju

l 14

Okt

14

Jan

15Ap

r 15

Jul 1

5O

kt 1

5Ja

n 16

Apr 1

6Ju

l 16

Okt

16

Jan

17Ap

r 17

Jul 1

7

EU-28, Wire & Cable Industrial Production, volumes, Yr-on-Yr % change


Economies, GDP versus Cable demand

Source: Integer Research, Reuter/Eikon

0

1

2

3

4

Germany UK France Italy Spain Poland

GDP (Euro) trillion

Cable demand (Euro) billion

European cable producers – landscape in 2017

Source: Integer Research, Industry Sources, Reuters/Eikon, Wilms Group

Key cable makers in the EU-28 in 2017

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500 Pro-forma insulated cable revenues, Euro million, 2017


Top 10 cable makers run 130 factories in EU-28, represent >50% of production

Source: Integer Research, Industry Sources, Reuter/Eikon

• EU “Regulation” – came into force July 2017• All permanently (fixed) installed building and construction products• Includes cables – “Reaction to Fire”• Does not cover “Circuit integrity cable”• EN50575 – defines the tests and performance assessment for

construction products• New tests and categories had to be developed for cables.• Objective – safety of people and property, and increase product

performance and transparency, for ease of trade• New system of Notified Bodies – 3rd party type testing

Source: Integer Research, BASEC, Eland Cable

What is Construction Products Regulation (CPR)?

They also have to complete Declaration of Performance and keep record for 10 years

4 categories described to Integer:• Overseas operations of leading EU cablemakers• Exporters – Turkish cable makers exporting into the EU• Exporters/OEM – 3rd party - directly working with EU wholesalers and

distributors, installers, many working with professional Chinese operations

• The “soup”, will be excluded – of course there will be fraud as in any other market

• Continued scrutiny for System1+, for C and B cables

Source: Integer Research

Who are the importers into the EU?

Which cables are covered and where?

Source: Integer Research, Eland Cable, Excel Networking

How are the cables tested?

Source: Integer Research, Nexans, Eland Cable, MMC and Excel Networking

• B2 and C Euroclass are being subjected to much tougher flame spread test than D & E.

• B2 & C subject to EN50399 – 20.5kW burner, on bunched cabled

• D & E flame spread on single cable -

Heat release is a new test

Source: Nexans Cabling Solutions

Smoke, acidity and flaming droplets


How are the cables marked?

Source: Integer Research, images and ideas after Eland Cable and Excel Networking

New additional tests for smoke, droplets and acidity

This is now being marked on the cables

Some companies are already introducing colour coding – this need to be co-ordinated

Source: Brand-Rex UK

• Netherlands the most rigorous.• In the UK, data cables already at Cca• Scandinavia, consider Euroclass Dca for areas with medium or high fire risks. Likely to

shift to Cca• Euroclass Dca – might favour Halogen free cables with low fire retardancy performance,

e.g. U-UTP data cables


What is happening country by country?

Conclusions

Source: European Union

• It has confirmed all the work – and that some cables have . But really is a minority. Some coaxial cables, tray cables, LAN cable, with a PE core for example have struggled.

• Some LAN, Coaxial cables and other signal cables tested so badly, and gave off so much heat, that a number of test houses had to stop the tests to protect their equipment.

• The leading cable companies probably knew this. But smaller cable companies have had to find out.

• Turkish cable makers doing well with building wire.

• Constructions are being adjusted, so that cables make it safely into the “middle of class C”

• For some data cables, new constructions cause some head scratching because new constructions, which impact dielectric properties – LAN- cross talk etc

Source: Integer Research

European Wire & Cable markets

For further information and questions on the survey, please contact

Louisa WinnikEditor, Europe Survey

Senior Analyst, Wire & [email protected]

Philip RadbourneDirector, Wire & Cable Research

[email protected]

Tel: +44 20 7503 1265Fax: +44 20 7503 1266Integer Research Ltd

London Office, Invicta House108-114 Golden Lane

London, EC1Y 0TL, UK

PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS - ICF · 2018-08-31 · PRESENTATION REGIONAL ANALYSIS: EUROPEAN...

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